Last full set of games before the next international break, I'm actually going to cautiously recommend an away win this weekend as well as give you a few games to avoid. Assume that the Strategy With No Name should be used in all games - apart from one notable exception, which I'll come to in a minute. All games kick off at 3pm GMT on Saturday afternoon.
nPower Championship
Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest
The price for a Doncaster win is tempting, especially as they've won three of the last four league meetings between these two in South Yorkshire. Forest haven't scored at Doncaster since the last time they won there - a 2-1 win in March 2006 - and although a Doncaster clean sheet might be possible under 2.5 goals might be the punt that lands the cash.
Additional information: 75% of games in the Championship have resulted in home wins/draws with an average of 2.74 goals per game...for which we have to thank Leeds and Preston. I've no idea when the last 4-6 game was, but Barnet 4, Crewe 7 happened nearly 20 years ago.
nPower League 2
Macclesfield Town v Northampton Town
This is the notable exception I mentioned above but it does come with a word of warning. Northampton have won five of the six league games between these two at Moss Rose since Macclesfield joined the Football League. Having said that, Macclesfield's home form is poor (five wins in the last 20 home league games) and the last time they won at home and Northampton won away was in April.
I don't normally go overboard on away wins but a Northampton win could be worth it even though I advised against them in their last away game, as does Under 2.5 goals.
Additional information: 75% of games in League 1 have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.42 goals per game. The relevant stat to this game is that 63% of games in League 1 have resulted in draws/away wins, which would be equivalent of decimal odds of 1.58 (4/7) - the best current price for Northampton/draw is 1.5 (1/2), which is no value whatsoever.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Morton
Another Dundee clean sheet (if you can find prices for it) looks possible but I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a Dundee win, based on the fact that Morton have only scored four goals at Dens Park in their last ten league meetings. Dundee have a very stingy defence, so under 2.5 goals looks a good bet but it may be even lower than that.
Additional information: 74% of games in the Scottish First Division have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.31 goals per game.
Leave Them Alone
Sunderland v Manchester United
United have a tremendous record at Sunderland (only one defeat in the last ten meetings) but Sunderland are very impressive at the Stadium of Light (only two defeats in the last 20 Premiership games). Could go either way, although Sunderland and the draw are good value. Might be under 2.5 goals but don't quote me.
West Ham United v Fulham
Touched on Fulham's poor away record in the Premiership last weekend and their trip across London won't be one they're looking forward to, but there are some contradictory signs here. Fulham have won two of the last ten games at Upton Park in the league (last win November 2001, six games ago), but although they haven't won away this season they've not yet lost on their travels either. Fulham's long term away form may be poor but it is consistent...which can't be said about West Ham's home form as they've gone backwards.
Tranmere Rovers v Brighton
Last Brighton win on the Wirral was in September 1976 - in the seven league meetings at Tranmere since then, Rovers have won five straight. Could be a surprise for Tranmere but Brighton have only lost twice in their last ten away games in League 1, so this is actually a bit of a puzzle along the same lines as Sunderland v Manchester United. May be a low scoring game.
Queen Of The South v Dunfermline
The Doonhamers' 2-0 win over Dunfermline last March was time that the hosts had beaten the Pars since the 85/6 season at Palmerston Park - and that was after they'd lost six of the next nine encounters. Dunfermline have only lost once in the league this season (2-0 at Raith Rovers) and although I'd be surprised if they lost this game, I've no idea how this might turn out.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Thursday, 30 September 2010
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
The Results Are In...
Not a bad haul for an evening's work. Only one disaster but the losses were covered so I'm not complaining too much.
Nottingham Forest 1, Sheffield United 1
Under was correct, the only thing that fell down was backing a Forest win.
Brighton 1, Brentford 0
Under was correct, as was Brighton's clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers 0, Tranmere 1
A bad night for both of Bristol's clubs (City lost 3-1 to Portsmouth in the Championship), Tranmere's streak snapped but backing the under was the correct call. Reset the clock.
Don't Touch It With A Barge Pole:
Kettering 3, Altrincham 3
French striker Jean-Paul Marna scored a hat-trick for Kettering, but Altrincham equalised with ten minutes left. Looks as if it was a good game.
Result Of The Night:
Leeds 4, Preston 6. Presumably this is going to be the best of three sets. New balls please.
I've got no scheduled posts between now and Friday, but there are some big games in the NFL this weekend and I'm pleased to say that I've been given permission to use some data from a very well respected source to aid my tips. I've also got two days to work out where I'm going to spend a £10 free bet I've got with one of the major bookies.
Nottingham Forest 1, Sheffield United 1
Under was correct, the only thing that fell down was backing a Forest win.
Brighton 1, Brentford 0
Under was correct, as was Brighton's clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers 0, Tranmere 1
A bad night for both of Bristol's clubs (City lost 3-1 to Portsmouth in the Championship), Tranmere's streak snapped but backing the under was the correct call. Reset the clock.
Don't Touch It With A Barge Pole:
Kettering 3, Altrincham 3
French striker Jean-Paul Marna scored a hat-trick for Kettering, but Altrincham equalised with ten minutes left. Looks as if it was a good game.
Result Of The Night:
Leeds 4, Preston 6. Presumably this is going to be the best of three sets. New balls please.
I've got no scheduled posts between now and Friday, but there are some big games in the NFL this weekend and I'm pleased to say that I've been given permission to use some data from a very well respected source to aid my tips. I've also got two days to work out where I'm going to spend a £10 free bet I've got with one of the major bookies.
Tuesday Night Football League Tips
A full programme outside the Premiership, which can be a bit annoying for those of us who want to support our local clubs and watch some of the best sides in Europe (allegedly) in the Champions League. Once upon a time in another century Nottingham Forest won the European Cup and so it seems appropriate to start with them.
nPower Championship
Nottingham Forest v Sheffield United
Forest haven't exactly got off to a brilliant start, but they're undefeated at home and beating Swansea at the weekend might be the catalyst they need for another win. They've also only been beaten once by Sheffield United once in the last ten league games at the City Ground, but a draw cannot be ruled out and this looks as if could be a low scoring game. I'm recommending under 2.5 goals as well as a straight back bet for Forest and the usual dutch on the exchanges.
Additional information: home win/draw percentage for the Championship is 74 exactly, so a double chance bet on any game in this division should be 1.35, but a Forest/draw bet is 1.22, so no value at all. This is where the dutching strategy comes in.
nPower League 1
Brighton v Brentford
Yep, Brighton again, although they are not value for the win so no point in looking at a straight back bet. New(ish) manager Gus Poyet has had a big impact on the Sussex club, the main difference appears to be that the Seagulls are scoring regularly - in a nine game home streak last season they failed to score in six, including three consecutive games. Brentford are currently having similar difficulties away from home: eight games without a road win and the Bees have failed to score in four of them, including four of the last six. Low scoring game is in prospect so take under 2.5 goals; might also be worth looking at Brighton to keep a clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers v Tranmere Rovers
The hosts don't have brilliant home record but could be worth a straight win; the visitors are dreadful away from home - especially when they visit North Bristol, where they haven't won since March 1971 (eight meetings since). Tranmere have also failed to score in seven of their twelve visits to the Gas: there's a chance that may be repeated so looking at a Bristol Rovers clean sheet and under 2.5 goals could work nicely.
If you're wondering why Bristol Rovers are called the Gas, their old ground (Eastville) was right next door to a big gasometer. Neither of those structures are there anymore; there are Tesco and Ikea stores on the site now.
Additional info: home wins/draws account for 75% of the current results in League 1.
Don't touch with a barge pole:
Blue Square Conference
Kettering v Altrincham
The prospect of a dreadful game between two of the worst teams in English professional football. Kettering's home record over the last 20 games: two wins, eight draws, twelve defeats. Altrincham's away record in the same time frame: three wins, six draws, eleven defeats (six consecutive). Kettering have won the last two. I'll be interested in the result but I'm not throwing any cash at this one - anything could happen.
nPower Championship
Nottingham Forest v Sheffield United
Forest haven't exactly got off to a brilliant start, but they're undefeated at home and beating Swansea at the weekend might be the catalyst they need for another win. They've also only been beaten once by Sheffield United once in the last ten league games at the City Ground, but a draw cannot be ruled out and this looks as if could be a low scoring game. I'm recommending under 2.5 goals as well as a straight back bet for Forest and the usual dutch on the exchanges.
Additional information: home win/draw percentage for the Championship is 74 exactly, so a double chance bet on any game in this division should be 1.35, but a Forest/draw bet is 1.22, so no value at all. This is where the dutching strategy comes in.
nPower League 1
Brighton v Brentford
Yep, Brighton again, although they are not value for the win so no point in looking at a straight back bet. New(ish) manager Gus Poyet has had a big impact on the Sussex club, the main difference appears to be that the Seagulls are scoring regularly - in a nine game home streak last season they failed to score in six, including three consecutive games. Brentford are currently having similar difficulties away from home: eight games without a road win and the Bees have failed to score in four of them, including four of the last six. Low scoring game is in prospect so take under 2.5 goals; might also be worth looking at Brighton to keep a clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers v Tranmere Rovers
The hosts don't have brilliant home record but could be worth a straight win; the visitors are dreadful away from home - especially when they visit North Bristol, where they haven't won since March 1971 (eight meetings since). Tranmere have also failed to score in seven of their twelve visits to the Gas: there's a chance that may be repeated so looking at a Bristol Rovers clean sheet and under 2.5 goals could work nicely.
If you're wondering why Bristol Rovers are called the Gas, their old ground (Eastville) was right next door to a big gasometer. Neither of those structures are there anymore; there are Tesco and Ikea stores on the site now.
Additional info: home wins/draws account for 75% of the current results in League 1.
Don't touch with a barge pole:
Blue Square Conference
Kettering v Altrincham
The prospect of a dreadful game between two of the worst teams in English professional football. Kettering's home record over the last 20 games: two wins, eight draws, twelve defeats. Altrincham's away record in the same time frame: three wins, six draws, eleven defeats (six consecutive). Kettering have won the last two. I'll be interested in the result but I'm not throwing any cash at this one - anything could happen.
Monday, 27 September 2010
Monday Round Up
A mixed weekend, the only real disaster was Coventry's home defeat to Preston, but once again I imagine I wasn't the only punter who got that wrong. Here's the round up.
Spot On:
Alabama 24, Arkansas 20
Birmingham 0, Wigan 0
Fulham 0, Everton 0
OK, I recommended straight bets for Birmingham and Fulham wins but both of them would have been good value if they'd won and dutching Fulham/draw produced a nice result. The Alabama/Arkansas game was a good one too.
Mixed:
Notre Dame 14, Stanford 37
Morecambe 2, Barnet 2
Morecambe had to come from behind twice to earn a point. Almost a disaster, but thanks to a goal from veteran Morecambe midfielder Paul Mullen it wasn't; may have to keep an eye on backing Morecambe at their new stadium as they haven't won there yet.
Stanford look like the real deal though - they've got a massive game at Oregon on Saturday that I might get involved with.
Wrong, But Worth A Small Punt:
Rutgers 13, North Carolina 17
Lost:
Coventry 1, Preston 2
No Harm Done:
Albion Rovers 3, Elgin 1
East Stirling 0, Berwick 0
The enigma of the Scottish 3rd Division continues.
I stayed up far too late on Saturday night/Sunday morning, so I didn't post any NFL picks yesterday. Of the games I followed, I won two and lost one (I picked Houston over Dallas) but one of the wins was down to Oakland missing a last second field goal that would have won their game at Arizona. Classic Raiders.
Lessons Learned:
* Adding the home win/draw percentages was a really good idea - there was an 80% chance of winning by dutching home win/draw for every Premiership game, but this weekend's results have reduced that to 76.7%. Food for thought.
* The college football game selection policy is a good one and I'll keep that going.
* Always bet against Oakland in the NFL. Much as I hate doing that, it seems to be profitable.
Spot On:
Alabama 24, Arkansas 20
Birmingham 0, Wigan 0
Fulham 0, Everton 0
OK, I recommended straight bets for Birmingham and Fulham wins but both of them would have been good value if they'd won and dutching Fulham/draw produced a nice result. The Alabama/Arkansas game was a good one too.
Mixed:
Notre Dame 14, Stanford 37
Morecambe 2, Barnet 2
Morecambe had to come from behind twice to earn a point. Almost a disaster, but thanks to a goal from veteran Morecambe midfielder Paul Mullen it wasn't; may have to keep an eye on backing Morecambe at their new stadium as they haven't won there yet.
Stanford look like the real deal though - they've got a massive game at Oregon on Saturday that I might get involved with.
Wrong, But Worth A Small Punt:
Rutgers 13, North Carolina 17
Lost:
Coventry 1, Preston 2
No Harm Done:
Albion Rovers 3, Elgin 1
East Stirling 0, Berwick 0
The enigma of the Scottish 3rd Division continues.
I stayed up far too late on Saturday night/Sunday morning, so I didn't post any NFL picks yesterday. Of the games I followed, I won two and lost one (I picked Houston over Dallas) but one of the wins was down to Oakland missing a last second field goal that would have won their game at Arizona. Classic Raiders.
Lessons Learned:
* Adding the home win/draw percentages was a really good idea - there was an 80% chance of winning by dutching home win/draw for every Premiership game, but this weekend's results have reduced that to 76.7%. Food for thought.
* The college football game selection policy is a good one and I'll keep that going.
* Always bet against Oakland in the NFL. Much as I hate doing that, it seems to be profitable.
Friday, 24 September 2010
College Football Picks 25/9/10
I've picked three games this weekend using the following criteria:
* The kick off time has to be accessible to a UK audience
* The exchanges have markets available (not always the case)
Strangely, I've ended up with three games where the visiting team is the favourite - but I think that there are cases to be made for backing the home in two of them. I'm going to start with the game where I think the away team will win.
Alabama at Arkansas (Saturday 8:30pm, live on ESPN America)
Arkansas' record at home isn't that bad (four loses in the last 20) but home games against teams ranked in the Top 10 have been few and far between - three in the last five seasons and the Razorbacks have lost all of them by an average of 25.3 points. Those games include a 49-19 thrashing by Alabama in 2008.
Alabama have won their last three road games against teams ranked in the Top 20 (Arkansas are currently 10th in the Associated Press Poll) by a margin of 12 points so although this will be a cracking game it's highly unlikely that Arkansas will win it.
Recommendation: Back Alabama but keep an eye on the exchanges to find a decent price for laying Arkansas.
Stanford at Notre Dame (Saturday 8:30pm)
One thing to keep in mind about this game: although Notre Dame have lost exactly half of their last ten home games, five of those defeats came in overtime so there's plenty of potential for this game to be a close one. Stanford haven't won three consecutive road games since the beginning of the 2005 season and haven't won in South Bend since 1992; Notre Dame have won the last five meetings between these two at home by an average of two touchdowns and although I don't think that will be the case, I can smell an upset here. Back Notre Dame by all means, but a I'd also recommend an insurance bet on Stanford just in case.
Keep An Eye On:
North Carolina at Rutgers (Saturday 8:30pm)
After losing two straight home games by the same score (24-30) the Tar Heels travel to New Jersey in search of their first win of the season. There's an immediate problem with this game, which is that these two programmes have only met each other twice and each time the home team has lost, so there really isn't enough data to take this forward.
Having said that...I think the bookies may have got this one arse backwards. So I'm recommending either taking no action or having a small punt on Rutgers: they've had three shut outs in their last five home games including one against a ranked opponent (23-0 v USF at the end of last season).
* The kick off time has to be accessible to a UK audience
* The exchanges have markets available (not always the case)
Strangely, I've ended up with three games where the visiting team is the favourite - but I think that there are cases to be made for backing the home in two of them. I'm going to start with the game where I think the away team will win.
Alabama at Arkansas (Saturday 8:30pm, live on ESPN America)
Arkansas' record at home isn't that bad (four loses in the last 20) but home games against teams ranked in the Top 10 have been few and far between - three in the last five seasons and the Razorbacks have lost all of them by an average of 25.3 points. Those games include a 49-19 thrashing by Alabama in 2008.
Alabama have won their last three road games against teams ranked in the Top 20 (Arkansas are currently 10th in the Associated Press Poll) by a margin of 12 points so although this will be a cracking game it's highly unlikely that Arkansas will win it.
Recommendation: Back Alabama but keep an eye on the exchanges to find a decent price for laying Arkansas.
Stanford at Notre Dame (Saturday 8:30pm)
One thing to keep in mind about this game: although Notre Dame have lost exactly half of their last ten home games, five of those defeats came in overtime so there's plenty of potential for this game to be a close one. Stanford haven't won three consecutive road games since the beginning of the 2005 season and haven't won in South Bend since 1992; Notre Dame have won the last five meetings between these two at home by an average of two touchdowns and although I don't think that will be the case, I can smell an upset here. Back Notre Dame by all means, but a I'd also recommend an insurance bet on Stanford just in case.
Keep An Eye On:
North Carolina at Rutgers (Saturday 8:30pm)
After losing two straight home games by the same score (24-30) the Tar Heels travel to New Jersey in search of their first win of the season. There's an immediate problem with this game, which is that these two programmes have only met each other twice and each time the home team has lost, so there really isn't enough data to take this forward.
Having said that...I think the bookies may have got this one arse backwards. So I'm recommending either taking no action or having a small punt on Rutgers: they've had three shut outs in their last five home games including one against a ranked opponent (23-0 v USF at the end of last season).
Something For The Weekend 25/9/10
Let's get to it. Games in England and Scotland first plus a couple to avoid.
Barclays Premier League
Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic
There's always the chance of a draw when Birmingham are at home, but as they've never lost at home to Wigan in the league and have won the last three games at St. Andrews, they look good value to me. If you're going to look at this one on the exchanges, you know what I'm going to suggest...yes, dutch Birmingham and the draw. And if you really want to go mad, lay Wigan.
Fulham v Everton
Fulham are worth a straight bet; this will be Everton's second trip to West London in the past week and the last one didn't end so well - beaten by Brentford on penalties in the Carling Cup. Fulham have won ten of the last twelve and the last time there was a draw between these two at Craven Cottage was in April 1965; so a draw is overdue. Doesn't mean there'll be one: but as it's not likely to be a high scoring game then it can't be ruled out either. Dutching Fulham/draw and backing under 2.5 goals also look like they could pay out.
Additional info: 80% of games in the Premiership this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
nPower Championship
Coventry City v Preston North End
Two clubs apparently going in opposite directions. Coventry haven't lost at home this season and Preston's away record is dreadful so this looks as if it's clear cut: the problem comes with the head to head stats: the last two games between these two at the Ricoh Arena have been draws. I still think it's worth backing a Coventry win, but dutching Cov/draw might also be a profitable outcome. Preston are on my Relegation Radar but more of that in a couple of weeks.
Additional info: 72% of games in the Championship this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
nPower League 2
Morecambe v Barnet
I've already mentioned Barnet's ineptitude away from Underhill this season and there's no reason to think they're suddenly going to turn it around at Morecambe's new Globe Arena stadium. True, Morecambe started this season with three home draws (might be a spot of New Stadium Syndrome there) but they haven't lost at home since the end of January. Back Morecambe but have an insurance dutch just in case Barnet pinch a point.
Additional info: 73.8% of games in the League 2 this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
Interesting, but save your money:
nPower Championship
QPR v Doncaster
You get the feeling that if Rangers melt down at any point this season it'll be self inflicted. They won't win every game at Loftus Road this season, but as Doncaster haven't won there since February 1952 it's unlikely they'll lose this one but the problem is that a QPR win has no value. They've got Millwall next Tuesday though and they're a different kettle of fish entirely.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Albion Rovers v Elgin City
Albion have only lost once at home in their last ten games but their home record against Elgin is horrible. Three wins in the last ten indicate that perhaps you shouldn't be fooled by the short odds for Albion.
East Stirling v Berwick Rangers
Consecutive weeks on this list indicate that East Stirling could be a team to avoid in the long - the Scottish version of Brighton perhaps. Another home game where the visiting team has a far superior head to head record; East Stirling have won two of the last three games between these two at home, but Berwick won the other seven; the visitors are top of Division 3 and haven't lost so far. If I was in the Falkirk area I'd drop in and have a look at this one as it looks like an intriguing game.
Additional info: 64.5% of games in the Scottish 3rd Division this season have finished as either home wins/draws. Hmmm. Not surprising looking at the info above.
Barclays Premier League
Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic
There's always the chance of a draw when Birmingham are at home, but as they've never lost at home to Wigan in the league and have won the last three games at St. Andrews, they look good value to me. If you're going to look at this one on the exchanges, you know what I'm going to suggest...yes, dutch Birmingham and the draw. And if you really want to go mad, lay Wigan.
Fulham v Everton
Fulham are worth a straight bet; this will be Everton's second trip to West London in the past week and the last one didn't end so well - beaten by Brentford on penalties in the Carling Cup. Fulham have won ten of the last twelve and the last time there was a draw between these two at Craven Cottage was in April 1965; so a draw is overdue. Doesn't mean there'll be one: but as it's not likely to be a high scoring game then it can't be ruled out either. Dutching Fulham/draw and backing under 2.5 goals also look like they could pay out.
Additional info: 80% of games in the Premiership this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
nPower Championship
Coventry City v Preston North End
Two clubs apparently going in opposite directions. Coventry haven't lost at home this season and Preston's away record is dreadful so this looks as if it's clear cut: the problem comes with the head to head stats: the last two games between these two at the Ricoh Arena have been draws. I still think it's worth backing a Coventry win, but dutching Cov/draw might also be a profitable outcome. Preston are on my Relegation Radar but more of that in a couple of weeks.
Additional info: 72% of games in the Championship this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
nPower League 2
Morecambe v Barnet
I've already mentioned Barnet's ineptitude away from Underhill this season and there's no reason to think they're suddenly going to turn it around at Morecambe's new Globe Arena stadium. True, Morecambe started this season with three home draws (might be a spot of New Stadium Syndrome there) but they haven't lost at home since the end of January. Back Morecambe but have an insurance dutch just in case Barnet pinch a point.
Additional info: 73.8% of games in the League 2 this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
Interesting, but save your money:
nPower Championship
QPR v Doncaster
You get the feeling that if Rangers melt down at any point this season it'll be self inflicted. They won't win every game at Loftus Road this season, but as Doncaster haven't won there since February 1952 it's unlikely they'll lose this one but the problem is that a QPR win has no value. They've got Millwall next Tuesday though and they're a different kettle of fish entirely.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Albion Rovers v Elgin City
Albion have only lost once at home in their last ten games but their home record against Elgin is horrible. Three wins in the last ten indicate that perhaps you shouldn't be fooled by the short odds for Albion.
East Stirling v Berwick Rangers
Consecutive weeks on this list indicate that East Stirling could be a team to avoid in the long - the Scottish version of Brighton perhaps. Another home game where the visiting team has a far superior head to head record; East Stirling have won two of the last three games between these two at home, but Berwick won the other seven; the visitors are top of Division 3 and haven't lost so far. If I was in the Falkirk area I'd drop in and have a look at this one as it looks like an intriguing game.
Additional info: 64.5% of games in the Scottish 3rd Division this season have finished as either home wins/draws. Hmmm. Not surprising looking at the info above.
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
I Believe The Phrase Is 'Nailed It'
I'm taking the rest of the week off.
Lots of tips to come at the end of the week, but here's the lowdown from Tuesday night:
* Two second half goals from Lewis Holtby (his dad's English, his mum's German and he's on loan from Schalke) kept Mainz at the top of the Bundesliga. Mainz 2, Köln 0
* Mohammed Abdellaoue was amongst the scorers as Hannover whacked Werder Bremen 4-1. Bet settled after 53 minutes.
Thank you and goodnight.
Lots of tips to come at the end of the week, but here's the lowdown from Tuesday night:
* Two second half goals from Lewis Holtby (his dad's English, his mum's German and he's on loan from Schalke) kept Mainz at the top of the Bundesliga. Mainz 2, Köln 0
* Mohammed Abdellaoue was amongst the scorers as Hannover whacked Werder Bremen 4-1. Bet settled after 53 minutes.
Thank you and goodnight.
Bundesliga Tips For Tuesday
Three midweek games in the Bundesliga on Tuesday (and four on Wednesday), but I'm going to start off with one I don't have any interest in. All kick off at 7:00pm GMT, the first is on ESPN in the UK.
Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I normally avoid any games that don't have a sufficient 'head to head' record but that as of yet I'm not sure what the minimum requirement ought to be. I've taken a tiny step further and I've now decided that although five games should probably be sufficient, two definitely aren't. There have only been two meetings between these two sides at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga and both of them were draws. I'd leave Bayern alone anyway at the moment.
However, Mainz v Köln does meet the minimum requirement. In the last six games between these two at Mainz the hosts have not been beaten and although the current leaders have caught a lot of people by surprise, it's not hard to see why they're currently doing so well. In their last 20 Bundesliga home games they've only lost twice and they've kept clean sheets in half of them.
Having said that...there's no value backing Mainz but as they should be available at around evens then they're worth taking as it's always nice to effectively double your money. What I'm going to suggest is to back Under 2.5 goals as Köln might decide to park the bus: in their last 20 away games in the Bundesliga, they've failed to score 11 times, have kept ten clean sheets and one side has failed to score in 15 of those games.
Which is another way of saying 'Köln away: one of the teams isn't going to score'.
By way of a total contrast, Hannover v Werder Bremen will probably finish 6-5. These sides have met each other on several occasions and the big sample size (20 games) throws up some mad numbers:
* Fifteen of the last 20 games between these two have finished with more than 2.5 goals
* Thirteen of the last 20 have been over 3.5 goals
* There's only been a goalless draw once in the last 20
* Bremen's average margin of victory in their eight wins at Hannover is 2.5 goals.
So the recommendation is Over 2.5 goals and it might also be worth looking at the markets for both teams to score and laying 0-0. Once again although the bookies have correctly installed Werder Bremen as favourites, they don't represent any value; I'm also a little reluctant to get involved in such short prices for an away win.
I decided not to get involved with the New Orleans Saints v San Francisco 49ers game in the NFL, which was probably just as well. Looking back to the 2009 season, games featuring divisional runners up at home against divisional winners generated 12 wins for the runners up from 15 games and this looked like a good reason to back San Francisco.
Except New Orleans won with a last second field goal.
There are a couple of runners up v champions games this coming Sunday - Dallas at Houston and Indianapolis at Denver. As I've mentioned elsewhere, this is a huge game for Dallas but more about that game later in the week.
Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I normally avoid any games that don't have a sufficient 'head to head' record but that as of yet I'm not sure what the minimum requirement ought to be. I've taken a tiny step further and I've now decided that although five games should probably be sufficient, two definitely aren't. There have only been two meetings between these two sides at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga and both of them were draws. I'd leave Bayern alone anyway at the moment.
However, Mainz v Köln does meet the minimum requirement. In the last six games between these two at Mainz the hosts have not been beaten and although the current leaders have caught a lot of people by surprise, it's not hard to see why they're currently doing so well. In their last 20 Bundesliga home games they've only lost twice and they've kept clean sheets in half of them.
Having said that...there's no value backing Mainz but as they should be available at around evens then they're worth taking as it's always nice to effectively double your money. What I'm going to suggest is to back Under 2.5 goals as Köln might decide to park the bus: in their last 20 away games in the Bundesliga, they've failed to score 11 times, have kept ten clean sheets and one side has failed to score in 15 of those games.
Which is another way of saying 'Köln away: one of the teams isn't going to score'.
By way of a total contrast, Hannover v Werder Bremen will probably finish 6-5. These sides have met each other on several occasions and the big sample size (20 games) throws up some mad numbers:
* Fifteen of the last 20 games between these two have finished with more than 2.5 goals
* Thirteen of the last 20 have been over 3.5 goals
* There's only been a goalless draw once in the last 20
* Bremen's average margin of victory in their eight wins at Hannover is 2.5 goals.
So the recommendation is Over 2.5 goals and it might also be worth looking at the markets for both teams to score and laying 0-0. Once again although the bookies have correctly installed Werder Bremen as favourites, they don't represent any value; I'm also a little reluctant to get involved in such short prices for an away win.
I decided not to get involved with the New Orleans Saints v San Francisco 49ers game in the NFL, which was probably just as well. Looking back to the 2009 season, games featuring divisional runners up at home against divisional winners generated 12 wins for the runners up from 15 games and this looked like a good reason to back San Francisco.
Except New Orleans won with a last second field goal.
There are a couple of runners up v champions games this coming Sunday - Dallas at Houston and Indianapolis at Denver. As I've mentioned elsewhere, this is a huge game for Dallas but more about that game later in the week.
Monday, 20 September 2010
Get In!
Just fired up my Betfair account to win an extra £50 in it - I'd forgotten I'd entered the 'guess the time of the first goal' in the Man U v Liverpool game and nailed it at 42 minutes!
Not bad, second win in six months on one of those freebie contests that Betfair run on Facebook. Free money is always welcome ;-)
Not bad, second win in six months on one of those freebie contests that Betfair run on Facebook. Free money is always welcome ;-)
With The Benefit Of Hindsight 20/9/2010
Here's how the weekend went:
Well Done, Keep It Up:
* Brentford 1, Hartlepool 1
* Shrewsbury 3, Northampton 1
Nice call on laying 0-0. Shrewsbury’s scoring record against the Cobblers continues.
Could Do Better:
* Stoke 1, West Ham 1
Looking back on what I wrote - which I now realise didn't actually include any recommendations - I was half right. Big groan from the comfy chair when Kenwyne Jones hit the post. Strategy with no name worked, straight Stoke bet didn't.
* Dundee 0, Raith 0
Got the result wrong but the Dundee clean sheet right.
* Manchester United 3, Liverpool 2
2-0 with a United clean sheet was looking good until Johnny Evans gave away the penalty: despite singing the ‘miss it’ song as loud as I could, Steven Gerrard ended any interest I had in the correct score and clean sheet market. Laying 0-0 was the correct decision; hands up if anyone had Dimitar Berbatov to score a hat-trick? No, thought not.
See Me After Class:
* Wolfsburg 2, Hannover 96 0
May have to re-assess Wolfsburg on a game by game basis - if Steve McClaren's tightened them up then goals may fewer at the VW Arena than they have been in recent seasons.
* Walsall 1, Swindon 2
Guessing Isn't An Option:
* Tranmere 1, Charlton 1
Avoiding this one was the correct decision as I didn't think Tranmere would win
* Queen's Park 2, East Stirling 0
Easy to be wise after the event isn't it!
NFL:
Green Bay won as expected, but Dallas lost and with two defeats they really do need to win their next game (a difficult looking one at Houston) as the other teams in their division are all 1-1 and can still be overtaken. San Diego beat Jacksonville by 25 points and Peyton’s Colts beat Eli’s Giants in the Manning Bowl.
And With The Benefit Of Hindsight...
Not the worst weekend there's ever been, although it wasn't as good as last week. One thing that really stands out is that laying 0-0 can be a very profitable strategy as well as an absolute nightmare in terms of liabilities as can laying road dogs in the NFL.
However, it's a new week, there's still money in the bank and I've got my eye on some games in the Allsvenskan and the Russian Premiership...more later.
Well Done, Keep It Up:
* Brentford 1, Hartlepool 1
* Shrewsbury 3, Northampton 1
Nice call on laying 0-0. Shrewsbury’s scoring record against the Cobblers continues.
Could Do Better:
* Stoke 1, West Ham 1
Looking back on what I wrote - which I now realise didn't actually include any recommendations - I was half right. Big groan from the comfy chair when Kenwyne Jones hit the post. Strategy with no name worked, straight Stoke bet didn't.
* Dundee 0, Raith 0
Got the result wrong but the Dundee clean sheet right.
* Manchester United 3, Liverpool 2
2-0 with a United clean sheet was looking good until Johnny Evans gave away the penalty: despite singing the ‘miss it’ song as loud as I could, Steven Gerrard ended any interest I had in the correct score and clean sheet market. Laying 0-0 was the correct decision; hands up if anyone had Dimitar Berbatov to score a hat-trick? No, thought not.
See Me After Class:
* Wolfsburg 2, Hannover 96 0
May have to re-assess Wolfsburg on a game by game basis - if Steve McClaren's tightened them up then goals may fewer at the VW Arena than they have been in recent seasons.
* Walsall 1, Swindon 2
Guessing Isn't An Option:
* Tranmere 1, Charlton 1
Avoiding this one was the correct decision as I didn't think Tranmere would win
* Queen's Park 2, East Stirling 0
Easy to be wise after the event isn't it!
NFL:
Green Bay won as expected, but Dallas lost and with two defeats they really do need to win their next game (a difficult looking one at Houston) as the other teams in their division are all 1-1 and can still be overtaken. San Diego beat Jacksonville by 25 points and Peyton’s Colts beat Eli’s Giants in the Manning Bowl.
And With The Benefit Of Hindsight...
Not the worst weekend there's ever been, although it wasn't as good as last week. One thing that really stands out is that laying 0-0 can be a very profitable strategy as well as an absolute nightmare in terms of liabilities as can laying road dogs in the NFL.
However, it's a new week, there's still money in the bank and I've got my eye on some games in the Allsvenskan and the Russian Premiership...more later.
Sunday, 19 September 2010
Something For The Weekend Part IV
To finish off this weekend, here are a couple of picks for today's early NFL games:
Green Bay to beat Buffalo
The Packers have won 14 of their last twenty home games and are on a four game winning streak in the regular season at Lambeau field. Buffalo have lost 12 of their last 20 road trips. Green Bay by 14 points look about right here, although it will be interesting to see how Green Bay perform without their star RB Ryan Grant, who suffered a season ending injury last weekened.
Dallas to beat Chicago
The Cowboys have only lost five of their last 20 games at home; the Bears were nearly beaten by Detroit last week and don't travel partcularly well, winning only six of the last twenty games away from Soldier Field. I've already backed Dallas to win their division - their price has slipped a bit (they lost their first game) but not enough to worry about closing the trade just yet.
Something For The Weekend Part III
Mixed bag of results that I'll come to on Monday, but there's a pretty big game in the Premiership at lunchtime, so let's take a look at that.
Manchester United v Liverpool
Supposedly the game where the form book goes out the window, but before hitting any unwary pedestrians on the head with it let's see what the form we're supposed to be discarding actually is. All figures refer to Premiership matches at Old Trafford (for Manchester United) or away (for Liverpool) unless stated.
United have lost twice in their last 20 games (Chelsea and Aston Villa) and only drawn once in that period so they're obviously favourites - their current best price is 1.75, which represents value, but only from the point of view of those last 20 games. Looking at their head to head Premiership record at Old Trafford v Liverpool, United should be nearer evens.
If you didn't know you were looking at Liverpool's away record in the Premiership over the last 20 games you would be forgiven for thinking it belonged to someone else. Five wins, seven draws, eight defeats is slightly inferior to Manchester City's current record: best price for a Liverpool win is 5.5, which is about right.
Head to head is an interesting one - United have won four of the last five meetings, but that becomes five of the last ten, eight of the last fifteen and ten of the last 20. I think this only goes to show that although Liverpool are still capable of springing the occasional surprise, they are no longer at the same level as United as they were even five years ago.
Something else that jumps out straight away when looking at United's home record and Liverpool's away record is that a United clean sheet is a distinct possibility. Referring back to their last 20 home games, we find that opponents have failed to score against the Red Devils in 12 of them - this figure rises to 13 in 20 when all competitions are taken into account. Additionally, Liverpool have scored in less than half of their last 20 away games in the Premiership and are currently on a three game away streak without scoring.
The figures for clean sheets in Head to head games between United and Liverpool in the Premiership at Old Trafford differ, but only slightly. Liverpool have scored in both of the last league games at Old Trafford (including four in March 2009) but they've averaged less than a goal per game in both their last twenty visits to Manchester United and in their last 20 away games in the Premiership.
Which leads me to a tentative recommendation: back Manchester United to keep a clean sheet.
I'd leave the Over/Under 2.5 goals alone as the numbers are inconclusive, but outside those parameters there should be more than 1.5 but less than 3.5 goals in the game. None of United's last 20 home league games have finished 0-0 but Liverpool have been involved in six goalless draws in the same period; there hasn't been a 0-0 between these two at Old Trafford in the league since October 1991.
So another tentative recommendation: the final score will probably not be 0-0.
Looking at correct score betting, the most frequent scores in this game over the last 20 seasons in the league have happened on three occasions each:
* Manchester United 0, Liverpool 1
* Manchester United 2, Liverpool 0
* Manchester United 1, Liverpool 0
* Manchester United 1, Liverpool 1
So although there's about a 60% chance of one of these coming up, the one that's 'best fit' for the rest of the stats is Manchester United 2, Liverpool 0, which is another tentative recommendation - but don't put your house on it. It might be fun to do what I did for the World Cup final - dutch the four scorelines above and hope one of them comes in!
Manchester United v Liverpool
Supposedly the game where the form book goes out the window, but before hitting any unwary pedestrians on the head with it let's see what the form we're supposed to be discarding actually is. All figures refer to Premiership matches at Old Trafford (for Manchester United) or away (for Liverpool) unless stated.
United have lost twice in their last 20 games (Chelsea and Aston Villa) and only drawn once in that period so they're obviously favourites - their current best price is 1.75, which represents value, but only from the point of view of those last 20 games. Looking at their head to head Premiership record at Old Trafford v Liverpool, United should be nearer evens.
If you didn't know you were looking at Liverpool's away record in the Premiership over the last 20 games you would be forgiven for thinking it belonged to someone else. Five wins, seven draws, eight defeats is slightly inferior to Manchester City's current record: best price for a Liverpool win is 5.5, which is about right.
Head to head is an interesting one - United have won four of the last five meetings, but that becomes five of the last ten, eight of the last fifteen and ten of the last 20. I think this only goes to show that although Liverpool are still capable of springing the occasional surprise, they are no longer at the same level as United as they were even five years ago.
Something else that jumps out straight away when looking at United's home record and Liverpool's away record is that a United clean sheet is a distinct possibility. Referring back to their last 20 home games, we find that opponents have failed to score against the Red Devils in 12 of them - this figure rises to 13 in 20 when all competitions are taken into account. Additionally, Liverpool have scored in less than half of their last 20 away games in the Premiership and are currently on a three game away streak without scoring.
The figures for clean sheets in Head to head games between United and Liverpool in the Premiership at Old Trafford differ, but only slightly. Liverpool have scored in both of the last league games at Old Trafford (including four in March 2009) but they've averaged less than a goal per game in both their last twenty visits to Manchester United and in their last 20 away games in the Premiership.
Which leads me to a tentative recommendation: back Manchester United to keep a clean sheet.
I'd leave the Over/Under 2.5 goals alone as the numbers are inconclusive, but outside those parameters there should be more than 1.5 but less than 3.5 goals in the game. None of United's last 20 home league games have finished 0-0 but Liverpool have been involved in six goalless draws in the same period; there hasn't been a 0-0 between these two at Old Trafford in the league since October 1991.
So another tentative recommendation: the final score will probably not be 0-0.
Looking at correct score betting, the most frequent scores in this game over the last 20 seasons in the league have happened on three occasions each:
* Manchester United 0, Liverpool 1
* Manchester United 2, Liverpool 0
* Manchester United 1, Liverpool 0
* Manchester United 1, Liverpool 1
So although there's about a 60% chance of one of these coming up, the one that's 'best fit' for the rest of the stats is Manchester United 2, Liverpool 0, which is another tentative recommendation - but don't put your house on it. It might be fun to do what I did for the World Cup final - dutch the four scorelines above and hope one of them comes in!
Saturday, 18 September 2010
Something For The Weekend Part II
Only a couple today as I'm a bit pushed for time (I'm off to a game later on), but I'll have some thoughts on Sunday's action either later on or early tomorrow.
Barclays Premiership
Stoke City v West Ham United (ko 12:45pm GMT)
It would be a major surprise if West Ham won at the Britannia Stadium - although give the Hammers poor away record in the Premiership it's unlikely. Last draw between these two at Stoke was a goalless game in April 1972.
German Bundesliga
Wolfsburg v Hannover 96 (ko 2:30pm GMT)
Back over 2.5 goals - last 19 at the VW Arena have been over and in eight of their last ten games when Hannover have visited
College Football
Avoid Arkansas @ Georgia, even the Vegas oddsmakers are having trouble with this one although it should be a pretty good game. Otherwise today's schedule seems to be bereft of any value so I'll leave it there.
Barclays Premiership
Stoke City v West Ham United (ko 12:45pm GMT)
It would be a major surprise if West Ham won at the Britannia Stadium - although give the Hammers poor away record in the Premiership it's unlikely. Last draw between these two at Stoke was a goalless game in April 1972.
German Bundesliga
Wolfsburg v Hannover 96 (ko 2:30pm GMT)
Back over 2.5 goals - last 19 at the VW Arena have been over and in eight of their last ten games when Hannover have visited
College Football
Avoid Arkansas @ Georgia, even the Vegas oddsmakers are having trouble with this one although it should be a pretty good game. Otherwise today's schedule seems to be bereft of any value so I'll leave it there.
Friday, 17 September 2010
Something For The Weekend Part I
Lots of information coming up over the next couple of days, so let's get to it: lower divisions in England and the only games I'm interested in north of the border in Scotland to start with.
Saturday 18th September - all games are 3pm GMT kickoffs.
nPower League 1
Brentford v Hartlepool
A straight win for Brentford win has no value, so either laying Hartlepool outright (the more profitable option) or dutching Brentford/draw are the alternatives; the visitors have only won once in the last ten league meetings and that was in December 1967!
Walsall v Swindon
Similar to the Tranmere/Charlton game mentioned below, but a Walsall win is far more likely. Swindon are without a league win in six away games and have only won once in their last ten trips to Walsall's Banks's Stadium (2-0, December 2006). I hope I got those apostrophes right; I hope I get my recommendation to back Walsall and/or dutch Walsall/draw correct too.
nPower League 2
Shrewsbury Town v Northampton Town
Another one of these games where as long as you can find Shrewsbury at anything over evens then they should be worth taking. Northampton have gone six games away from home without a win and haven't won at Shrewsbury since November 1993. Some bonus information: Shrewsbury have never failed to score at home against Northampton, which implies that - if you can afford it - laying 0-0 would be a very good idea.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Raith Rovers
Back Dundee at any price greater than evens. May also be profitable to back Dundee to keep a clean sheet as they've done that in five straight home games and Raith have failed to score in five of their last six aways.
Leave Them Alone:
nPower League 1
Tranmere Rovers v Charlton Athletic
Tranmere are tremendous value - if you think they'll win. The problem is that they have a home record that's about as inconsistent as Charlton's away record. Six of the last 10 games between these two at Tranmere have been draws if that's any help; the last Tranmere win was in October 1996. Could go either way.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Queen's Park v East Stirling
Tough to separate these two until you look at how the last 20 games at Hampden Park, which is Queen's Park's home as well as where the Scottish national team plays. The Spiders have won eight of the last ten meetings there so it may be worth siding with them, although drawn games are a rarity in the series - one in the last twenty in Glasgow - so there's a potential trap there. Might have to stick a throw darts at this one; I think Queen's Park might win, but I wouldn't bet on it!
Saturday 18th September - all games are 3pm GMT kickoffs.
nPower League 1
Brentford v Hartlepool
A straight win for Brentford win has no value, so either laying Hartlepool outright (the more profitable option) or dutching Brentford/draw are the alternatives; the visitors have only won once in the last ten league meetings and that was in December 1967!
Walsall v Swindon
Similar to the Tranmere/Charlton game mentioned below, but a Walsall win is far more likely. Swindon are without a league win in six away games and have only won once in their last ten trips to Walsall's Banks's Stadium (2-0, December 2006). I hope I got those apostrophes right; I hope I get my recommendation to back Walsall and/or dutch Walsall/draw correct too.
nPower League 2
Shrewsbury Town v Northampton Town
Another one of these games where as long as you can find Shrewsbury at anything over evens then they should be worth taking. Northampton have gone six games away from home without a win and haven't won at Shrewsbury since November 1993. Some bonus information: Shrewsbury have never failed to score at home against Northampton, which implies that - if you can afford it - laying 0-0 would be a very good idea.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Raith Rovers
Back Dundee at any price greater than evens. May also be profitable to back Dundee to keep a clean sheet as they've done that in five straight home games and Raith have failed to score in five of their last six aways.
Leave Them Alone:
nPower League 1
Tranmere Rovers v Charlton Athletic
Tranmere are tremendous value - if you think they'll win. The problem is that they have a home record that's about as inconsistent as Charlton's away record. Six of the last 10 games between these two at Tranmere have been draws if that's any help; the last Tranmere win was in October 1996. Could go either way.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Queen's Park v East Stirling
Tough to separate these two until you look at how the last 20 games at Hampden Park, which is Queen's Park's home as well as where the Scottish national team plays. The Spiders have won eight of the last ten meetings there so it may be worth siding with them, although drawn games are a rarity in the series - one in the last twenty in Glasgow - so there's a potential trap there. Might have to stick a throw darts at this one; I think Queen's Park might win, but I wouldn't bet on it!
Tuesday, 14 September 2010
Champions League Tips
The group stage of the Champions League starts again this evening, but there are certain markets that I'm not going to even consider entering until the knock out stage starts. So here's the vague prediction I promised:
Based on various different angles referred to below, with the addition of some logic and a bit of probability, there’s a pretty good chance that a Spanish team will win the Champions League, possibly beating an Italian team that almost definitely won’t be Inter Milan.
I told you it was vague! Here are some insights.
* Winning Nation: dutch Spain and England for this - 14 of the last 20 winners (70%) of the winners have come from these countries. Back to back Italian winners is unlikely.
* First Time Winner: no, although I wouldn't go mad with the stake or your liability as there's a lot of support for Chelsea.
* All English Final: no, even though there's been one recently (2008). Interestingly, only three of the last twenty finals have been contested by teams from the same country and none of those were played in the country where the country where the finalists came from.
* Emphasising the point directly above, since 1990/91, two finals have been held inEngland UK
* The winners from the previous season have reached the final the following season on four occasions - AC Milan (94/5),Ajax
* Last year was the first season since 2001/02 that a German side had reached the semi final, and the first time since 2002/03 that an English side hadn’t.
Based on various different angles referred to below, with the addition of some logic and a bit of probability, there’s a pretty good chance that a Spanish team will win the Champions League, possibly beating an Italian team that almost definitely won’t be Inter Milan.
I told you it was vague! Here are some insights.
* Winning Nation: dutch Spain and England for this - 14 of the last 20 winners (70%) of the winners have come from these countries. Back to back Italian winners is unlikely.
* First Time Winner: no, although I wouldn't go mad with the stake or your liability as there's a lot of support for Chelsea.
* All English Final: no, even though there's been one recently (2008). Interestingly, only three of the last twenty finals have been contested by teams from the same country and none of those were played in the country where the country where the finalists came from.
* Emphasising the point directly above, since 1990/91, two finals have been held in
* The winners from the previous season have reached the final the following season on four occasions - AC Milan (94/5),
* Last year was the first season since 2001/02 that a German side had reached the semi final, and the first time since 2002/03 that an English side hadn’t.
Monday, 13 September 2010
Three Out Of Three...Just
New England, Chicago and Tennessee all won, although Detroit almost pulled off a major surprise in Chicago - what appeared to be a dodgy decision at the end of the game prevented the visitors from recording their first away win since 2007.
The group stages of the Champions League starts tomorrow and there are a few interesting markets that I might get involved with but more about that tomorrow - including the vaguest prediction I've probably ever made.
BTW, Betfair profit for the month is now £41.07 ($63.34) - almost time to move some of that back into my bank account.
The group stages of the Champions League starts tomorrow and there are a few interesting markets that I might get involved with but more about that tomorrow - including the vaguest prediction I've probably ever made.
BTW, Betfair profit for the month is now £41.07 ($63.34) - almost time to move some of that back into my bank account.
Sunday, 12 September 2010
NFL Tips & College Roundup
Week 1 of the NFL started on Thursday when New Orleans beat Minnesota 14-9 and although I normally wait a couple of weeks before getting involved, there are three games that are worth a look today. All kick off at 6pm GMT.
* Cincinnati @ New England
The Patriots are on a ten game home winning streak in the regular season; the Bengals were better on the road in 2009 than they have been in previous seasons but still lost three of their last five road trips. I've already backed New England to win the AFC East. Patriots by ten looks likely.
* Detroit @ Chicago
I don't think the Lions will win this particular game (they've lost their last 20 road trips by an average of almost 17 points per game), but they are due an away win soon and it might be worth looking for opportunities later in the season - the game at Buffalo on November 14th might be the one. Could be closer than expected.
* Oakland @ Tennessee
Mixed feeling about this one as I've been an Oakland fan for years but I won the main fantasy league I play in because of the outstanding stats Chris Johnson had last season. There's more chance of me winning the fantasy league again than the Raiders winning this game.
All four of the college teams I backed to win their conferences won their individual games yesterday, so I'm pleased with their progress so far. The most impressive win was Oregon's 48-13 victory at Tennessee: the Ducks scored 45 unanswered points at Neyland Stadium for a come from behind win.
* Cincinnati @ New England
The Patriots are on a ten game home winning streak in the regular season; the Bengals were better on the road in 2009 than they have been in previous seasons but still lost three of their last five road trips. I've already backed New England to win the AFC East. Patriots by ten looks likely.
* Detroit @ Chicago
I don't think the Lions will win this particular game (they've lost their last 20 road trips by an average of almost 17 points per game), but they are due an away win soon and it might be worth looking for opportunities later in the season - the game at Buffalo on November 14th might be the one. Could be closer than expected.
* Oakland @ Tennessee
Mixed feeling about this one as I've been an Oakland fan for years but I won the main fantasy league I play in because of the outstanding stats Chris Johnson had last season. There's more chance of me winning the fantasy league again than the Raiders winning this game.
All four of the college teams I backed to win their conferences won their individual games yesterday, so I'm pleased with their progress so far. The most impressive win was Oregon's 48-13 victory at Tennessee: the Ducks scored 45 unanswered points at Neyland Stadium for a come from behind win.
Saturday's Results
Not a bad Saturday - three wins out of five and only one real disaster - and my wife and I got back from apple picking with loads of apples, both eaters and cookers. Anyway, here's the rundown from yesterday:
* Straight From Biff Tannen's Sporting Almanac:
Wigan 1, Sunderland 1
QPR 3, Middlesbrough 0
Lincoln 1, Barnet 0
* Sounded Like A Good Idea, But It Wasn't:
Ruud van Nistelrooy didn't score.
* Totally, Utterly, Completely and Hopelessly Wrong:
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 4.
* Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City 1, Blackburn 1
Told you.
West Ham 1, Chelsea 3
I thought it would have been tighter, but as the last two goals came in the final seven minutes Over 2.5 would have been the right call but then again, I lost nothing.
Brighton 2, Milton Keynes 0
The Seagulls remain an enigma: if they come up in the next couple of weeks it might be time for a spot of unorthodox thinking.
* Streaks
The streaks involving Bolton, Hamilton and Portsmouth continue. The next time Hamilton play Rangers at home is April 9th.
I'll be back later with a quick look at how the College Football teams I'm backing got on yesterday and with some NFL picks for later on.
Incidentally, the current Betfair profit for the month is £23.97 ($36.82) - all of which is American Football or laying horses as the Borussia Mönchengladbach game reduced my football profit to minus 2p, which is break even in any other language.
* Straight From Biff Tannen's Sporting Almanac:
Wigan 1, Sunderland 1
QPR 3, Middlesbrough 0
Lincoln 1, Barnet 0
* Sounded Like A Good Idea, But It Wasn't:
Ruud van Nistelrooy didn't score.
* Totally, Utterly, Completely and Hopelessly Wrong:
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 4.
* Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City 1, Blackburn 1
Told you.
West Ham 1, Chelsea 3
I thought it would have been tighter, but as the last two goals came in the final seven minutes Over 2.5 would have been the right call but then again, I lost nothing.
Brighton 2, Milton Keynes 0
The Seagulls remain an enigma: if they come up in the next couple of weeks it might be time for a spot of unorthodox thinking.
* Streaks
The streaks involving Bolton, Hamilton and Portsmouth continue. The next time Hamilton play Rangers at home is April 9th.
I'll be back later with a quick look at how the College Football teams I'm backing got on yesterday and with some NFL picks for later on.
Incidentally, the current Betfair profit for the month is £23.97 ($36.82) - all of which is American Football or laying horses as the Borussia Mönchengladbach game reduced my football profit to minus 2p, which is break even in any other language.
Friday, 10 September 2010
SFTW 11/12 September 2010
You can tell it's mid September...it's getting darker earlier and decent opportunities are falling like leaves from the trees and I've spent a couple of hours this week crunching some numbers with my ancient copy of Excel 2003 - I don't particularly like the newest version but as long as you can colour some boxes in with a bit of conditional formatting I'm happy.
Off we go then...first stop North Rhein-Westphalia in Western Germany!
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga, 2:30pm GMT)
This one came up while I was doing some research for a blog I was writing for Soccerlens.com and it looks like a good opportunity to use the Strategy With No Name (dutch the home team/draw) plus a straight win bet for Borussia MGB. Mönchengladbach have a fairly decent home record in the Bundesliga (two defeats in their last ten home games and a 6-3 away win at Bayer Leverkusen before the international break) but although there's a relatively high chance of a draw in this game, once the draw reduction formula is applied the hosts look like a good prospect.
Recommendation: back Borussia Mönchengladbach at anything better than evens.
Wigan v Sunderland (Barclays Premier League, 3:00pm GMT)
Under 2.5 goals looks good here - despite Wigan's atrocious performances in their first two home games, they will be hoping to repeat their performance against Spurs a couple of weeks ago. They've kept four clean sheets in their last seven home league games against Sunderland; the visitors have been shut out in nine of their last twelve away games in the Premiership.
Recommendation: back Under 2.5 goals
QPR v Middlesbrough (nPower Championship, 3:00pm GMT)
Middlesbrough had never won at Loftus Road until last season, when they destroyed Rangers 5-1. I don't think that's going to happen again, but unfortunately it's not possible to lay that score on Betfair (and 'any other unquoted' covers a multitude of sins) so it's a case of using the Strategy With No Name and having a straight bet on a QPR win.
Recommendation: back QPR at anything better than evens.
Lincoln City v Barnet (nPower League 2, 3:00pm GMT)
The Imps don't have the best home record I've ever seen, but Barnet's away form is atrocious - 17 defeats in the last 20 games by an average of 2.2 goals, including a 7-0 thrashing by Crewe in their last game. Not only that, Lincoln have dominated this fixture in recent seasons (eight wins in the last nine games at Sincil Bank) so this looks like a good one to me.
Recommendation: back Lincoln at anything better than evens.
Sounds Like A Good Idea, But More Research Needed:
Ruud van Nistelrooy to score the first goal in the Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Nuremburg - his anytime scorer odds aren't that bad either. Min. stakes at the best price you can find - the bookies seem unsure about the odds for first goal, I've backed him for £1 at 5/1 on bet365 (LOL, big time bet there!)
Didn't Make The Cut But Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City v Blackburn (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Similar to the above - Blackburn can be tough to break down defensively and recently City have either been scoring a hatful or none at all at the City of Manchester Stadium.
West Ham v Chelsea (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Anyone expecting a goal fest might be disappointed - there has been a history of +2.5 in this game, but both of the last two encounters between these two at Upton Park have been under. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham make a game of it but still end up losing; opposing managers will be keen to stress exactly how important it is to defend effectively against Chelsea.
Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons (nPower League 1, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Limited amount of head to head data which is skewed somewhat by the fact that MK have never drawn a game at Brighton. I'm seriously thinking of disregarding Brighton completely in future weeks if their numbers don't start looking vaguely normal.
Birmingham City v Liverpool (Barclays Premiership, Sunday 4:00pm GMT)
The recommendation I had from elsewhere was that Under 2.5 goals was the way forward in this game, but Over 1.5 looks a better prospect...until you look at the prices. It might be worth getting the stopwatch out on Sunday afternoon and using the ten minutes with no goals trading strategy but I may not be in front of the TV at that point.
A couple of weird stats from my research this week:
* The last time Bolton drew 0-0 at Arsenal and the last time Hamilton beat Rangers at home? Before World War II.
* Portsmouth haven't beaten Ipswich in a league game at Fratton Park since October 1966. That's a 12 game streak that might not end tomorrow.
Unfortunately due to a prior appointment (apple picking!) I'm not going to be about tomorrow but if I get time on Sunday I'll post some NFL picks. I've also been working on some Champions League stuff but I might wait until the latter stages before parting with any cash; it's worth remembering that as it's a tournament there are some interesting strategies to deploy plus there are tons of markets available. Interesting to see that CFR Cluj are the rank outsiders: Steaua Bucharest won the competition back in the 1980s and they're from Romania too.
Anyway, good luck!
Off we go then...first stop North Rhein-Westphalia in Western Germany!
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga, 2:30pm GMT)
This one came up while I was doing some research for a blog I was writing for Soccerlens.com and it looks like a good opportunity to use the Strategy With No Name (dutch the home team/draw) plus a straight win bet for Borussia MGB. Mönchengladbach have a fairly decent home record in the Bundesliga (two defeats in their last ten home games and a 6-3 away win at Bayer Leverkusen before the international break) but although there's a relatively high chance of a draw in this game, once the draw reduction formula is applied the hosts look like a good prospect.
Recommendation: back Borussia Mönchengladbach at anything better than evens.
Wigan v Sunderland (Barclays Premier League, 3:00pm GMT)
Under 2.5 goals looks good here - despite Wigan's atrocious performances in their first two home games, they will be hoping to repeat their performance against Spurs a couple of weeks ago. They've kept four clean sheets in their last seven home league games against Sunderland; the visitors have been shut out in nine of their last twelve away games in the Premiership.
Recommendation: back Under 2.5 goals
QPR v Middlesbrough (nPower Championship, 3:00pm GMT)
Middlesbrough had never won at Loftus Road until last season, when they destroyed Rangers 5-1. I don't think that's going to happen again, but unfortunately it's not possible to lay that score on Betfair (and 'any other unquoted' covers a multitude of sins) so it's a case of using the Strategy With No Name and having a straight bet on a QPR win.
Recommendation: back QPR at anything better than evens.
Lincoln City v Barnet (nPower League 2, 3:00pm GMT)
The Imps don't have the best home record I've ever seen, but Barnet's away form is atrocious - 17 defeats in the last 20 games by an average of 2.2 goals, including a 7-0 thrashing by Crewe in their last game. Not only that, Lincoln have dominated this fixture in recent seasons (eight wins in the last nine games at Sincil Bank) so this looks like a good one to me.
Recommendation: back Lincoln at anything better than evens.
Sounds Like A Good Idea, But More Research Needed:
Ruud van Nistelrooy to score the first goal in the Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Nuremburg - his anytime scorer odds aren't that bad either. Min. stakes at the best price you can find - the bookies seem unsure about the odds for first goal, I've backed him for £1 at 5/1 on bet365 (LOL, big time bet there!)
Didn't Make The Cut But Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City v Blackburn (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Similar to the above - Blackburn can be tough to break down defensively and recently City have either been scoring a hatful or none at all at the City of Manchester Stadium.
West Ham v Chelsea (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Anyone expecting a goal fest might be disappointed - there has been a history of +2.5 in this game, but both of the last two encounters between these two at Upton Park have been under. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham make a game of it but still end up losing; opposing managers will be keen to stress exactly how important it is to defend effectively against Chelsea.
Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons (nPower League 1, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Limited amount of head to head data which is skewed somewhat by the fact that MK have never drawn a game at Brighton. I'm seriously thinking of disregarding Brighton completely in future weeks if their numbers don't start looking vaguely normal.
Birmingham City v Liverpool (Barclays Premiership, Sunday 4:00pm GMT)
The recommendation I had from elsewhere was that Under 2.5 goals was the way forward in this game, but Over 1.5 looks a better prospect...until you look at the prices. It might be worth getting the stopwatch out on Sunday afternoon and using the ten minutes with no goals trading strategy but I may not be in front of the TV at that point.
A couple of weird stats from my research this week:
* The last time Bolton drew 0-0 at Arsenal and the last time Hamilton beat Rangers at home? Before World War II.
* Portsmouth haven't beaten Ipswich in a league game at Fratton Park since October 1966. That's a 12 game streak that might not end tomorrow.
Unfortunately due to a prior appointment (apple picking!) I'm not going to be about tomorrow but if I get time on Sunday I'll post some NFL picks. I've also been working on some Champions League stuff but I might wait until the latter stages before parting with any cash; it's worth remembering that as it's a tournament there are some interesting strategies to deploy plus there are tons of markets available. Interesting to see that CFR Cluj are the rank outsiders: Steaua Bucharest won the competition back in the 1980s and they're from Romania too.
Anyway, good luck!
Wednesday, 8 September 2010
NFL Picks For 2010
The NFL season starts tomorrow and although I'm probably going to be more interested in individual games until the playoffs start, I've got a couple of divisional recommendations to make.
Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East: the Cowboys were the team of the 90s in this division, winning it six times in ten seasons before going into an eight year slump. They've won two of the last three titles and look a good proposition to win another. I'd leave them alone from a Superbowl point of view though - the game is being played at the new Cowboys stadium and no team has ever won the Vince Lombardi trophy in their own stadium.
There's also a case for laying current champions New Orleans as there hasn't been a back to back Superbowl winner for a while (same with the Champions League but more of that in another post) - I don't think that they're as good as the San Francisco 49ers were back in the day and also because I think the New England Patriots will not only win the AFC East but also look a decent punt for the whole thing. The bookies have the Patriots similarly priced to New York Jets, but I think Jets QB Mark Sanchez might have a difficult second year at the helm of the Jets offense.
And that's it. The San Diego Chargers will probably run away with the AFC West but don't really represent any value; three of the four teams in the NFC West stand a chance of winning it and the southern divisions in both conferences only go back eight seasons, which isn't really enough data...having said that, the Indianapolis Colts will probably win the AFC South.
Bumper post coming on Friday as I've found some opportunities in England and Scotland (and possibly Germany) this weekend but I need to make sure that they're profitable ones. If there's time I'll include some College and NFL picks too.
Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East: the Cowboys were the team of the 90s in this division, winning it six times in ten seasons before going into an eight year slump. They've won two of the last three titles and look a good proposition to win another. I'd leave them alone from a Superbowl point of view though - the game is being played at the new Cowboys stadium and no team has ever won the Vince Lombardi trophy in their own stadium.
There's also a case for laying current champions New Orleans as there hasn't been a back to back Superbowl winner for a while (same with the Champions League but more of that in another post) - I don't think that they're as good as the San Francisco 49ers were back in the day and also because I think the New England Patriots will not only win the AFC East but also look a decent punt for the whole thing. The bookies have the Patriots similarly priced to New York Jets, but I think Jets QB Mark Sanchez might have a difficult second year at the helm of the Jets offense.
And that's it. The San Diego Chargers will probably run away with the AFC West but don't really represent any value; three of the four teams in the NFC West stand a chance of winning it and the southern divisions in both conferences only go back eight seasons, which isn't really enough data...having said that, the Indianapolis Colts will probably win the AFC South.
Bumper post coming on Friday as I've found some opportunities in England and Scotland (and possibly Germany) this weekend but I need to make sure that they're profitable ones. If there's time I'll include some College and NFL picks too.
Monday, 6 September 2010
Streak Snapped!
The inevitable fall: Avai 0, Atletico Paranaense 1.
The circumstances couldn't have been any more ridiculous either - the video is below, 6:40 is where the fun starts if you don't want to watch the entire game. With the score at 0-0, Atletico (red and black stripes) were down to ten with six minutes left after substitute Leandro was sent off after receiving two yellow cards in two minutes. Then in the fifth minute of injury time, Maikon Leite scored the winner and did a nice little dance.
It's not exactly back to the drawing board stuff (the half time result went the way I wanted it to) but at times like this it's worth having a look at any evidence that indicates that I was about to make a mistake...and there's plenty of it.
* Avai had lost their last home game and Atletico had won their last away game, but that's not necessarily a big mistake in itself but could be seen as a possible warning. The next point is a mistake.
* Not enough head to head form - just the one game. The further back you can go the more information you can collect and in Football League games data is available going back to the 19th century - if you use the head to head feature at www.soccerbase.com you'll see what I mean. Try Aston Villa and Everton.
* I deviated from the Strategy With No Name - I should have backed Avai/draw rather than laying Atletico, because I would have minimised my losses.
Re-reading the preview is enlightening. I was confident that my prediction was a good one but I also had some misgivings...however, without the referee and his stopwatch I might have won part of my bets on this game so although it's a blow, it's not terminal and there are other battles to be fought.
And in the case of the college football game in Lubbock, won. SMU kept it close against Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders won by just eight points - which tells you a lot about how far Southern Methodist have come since the days of the death penalty and they may be worth keeping an eye on later in the season. The game I avoided was an absolute barn burner - Eastern Carolina beat Tulsa by two points as the clock ran out. Good job I didn't have any cash on that one - my grey hair would have been white this morning!
The circumstances couldn't have been any more ridiculous either - the video is below, 6:40 is where the fun starts if you don't want to watch the entire game. With the score at 0-0, Atletico (red and black stripes) were down to ten with six minutes left after substitute Leandro was sent off after receiving two yellow cards in two minutes. Then in the fifth minute of injury time, Maikon Leite scored the winner and did a nice little dance.
It's not exactly back to the drawing board stuff (the half time result went the way I wanted it to) but at times like this it's worth having a look at any evidence that indicates that I was about to make a mistake...and there's plenty of it.
* Avai had lost their last home game and Atletico had won their last away game, but that's not necessarily a big mistake in itself but could be seen as a possible warning. The next point is a mistake.
* Not enough head to head form - just the one game. The further back you can go the more information you can collect and in Football League games data is available going back to the 19th century - if you use the head to head feature at www.soccerbase.com you'll see what I mean. Try Aston Villa and Everton.
* I deviated from the Strategy With No Name - I should have backed Avai/draw rather than laying Atletico, because I would have minimised my losses.
Re-reading the preview is enlightening. I was confident that my prediction was a good one but I also had some misgivings...however, without the referee and his stopwatch I might have won part of my bets on this game so although it's a blow, it's not terminal and there are other battles to be fought.
And in the case of the college football game in Lubbock, won. SMU kept it close against Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders won by just eight points - which tells you a lot about how far Southern Methodist have come since the days of the death penalty and they may be worth keeping an eye on later in the season. The game I avoided was an absolute barn burner - Eastern Carolina beat Tulsa by two points as the clock ran out. Good job I didn't have any cash on that one - my grey hair would have been white this morning!
Sunday, 5 September 2010
The Good Run Continues...For How Long?
It's an understatement to say that at about 5:00pm GMT yesterday I was very pleased indeed.
Everything came in; even the two games I decided to leave alone, which on the one hand is annoying, but on the other is a very positive indication that the voodoo I use is currently working very well indeed. In case you're worried, it's not actually voodoo and I also don't have a copy of Biff Tannen's sports almanac from 'Back To The Future' - it's a statistically based system that's always evolving and involves a number of failsafes, which is why some events are part of a watching brief.
Only one soccer game of any note today - it's been a while since I got involved in a game in Brazil's Serie A and the game between Avai and Atletico Paranaense (kick off 8:00pm GMT) looks like it might be worth considering. However, I'm going to exercise some caution here as Avai lost at Santos on Thursday evening, which is a similar kind of turnaround to a Premier team playing in the Europa League and then turning out for a Sunday afternoon game. There's also a minor problem with the fact that these two have only played each other once in the Campeonato in Florianopolis (Avai won 2-0 last October) but to be honest Atletico's recent away record in the league is so poor that probably doesn't matter.
The Strategy With No Name is going to make yet another appearance here - Avai or draw at half time is worth dutching (83% of games in the Campeonato at half time have been home/draw at half time), but I'm recommending laying Atletico - even though they won their last away game, they haven't won back to back away games in the league since August 2009. Avai haven't lost consecutive home games since July 2009, I'm going to have a small punt on a straight Avai win.
Couple of college football games later on, my advice is to lay SMU in their game at Texas Tech - Texas Tech has won the last six games between these two and have won the last three in Lubbock by an average of 38 points.
Everything came in; even the two games I decided to leave alone, which on the one hand is annoying, but on the other is a very positive indication that the voodoo I use is currently working very well indeed. In case you're worried, it's not actually voodoo and I also don't have a copy of Biff Tannen's sports almanac from 'Back To The Future' - it's a statistically based system that's always evolving and involves a number of failsafes, which is why some events are part of a watching brief.
Only one soccer game of any note today - it's been a while since I got involved in a game in Brazil's Serie A and the game between Avai and Atletico Paranaense (kick off 8:00pm GMT) looks like it might be worth considering. However, I'm going to exercise some caution here as Avai lost at Santos on Thursday evening, which is a similar kind of turnaround to a Premier team playing in the Europa League and then turning out for a Sunday afternoon game. There's also a minor problem with the fact that these two have only played each other once in the Campeonato in Florianopolis (Avai won 2-0 last October) but to be honest Atletico's recent away record in the league is so poor that probably doesn't matter.
The Strategy With No Name is going to make yet another appearance here - Avai or draw at half time is worth dutching (83% of games in the Campeonato at half time have been home/draw at half time), but I'm recommending laying Atletico - even though they won their last away game, they haven't won back to back away games in the league since August 2009. Avai haven't lost consecutive home games since July 2009, I'm going to have a small punt on a straight Avai win.
Couple of college football games later on, my advice is to lay SMU in their game at Texas Tech - Texas Tech has won the last six games between these two and have won the last three in Lubbock by an average of 38 points.
Saturday, 4 September 2010
Something For The Weekend 04/09/10
Interesting couple of days - Pittsburgh and Middle Tennessee State both lost games they were supposed to, but they were far closer than I thought they would be (Pittsburgh lost to Utah in overtime), which shows the potential calibre of those teams within their individual conferences.
South Carolina and Iowa State both won, England won 4-0 and Shamrock Rovers were drawing 0-0 at half time but went on to win 1-0 courtesy of a spectacular Billy Dennehy free kick. So all good right now...but it's times like this that it pays not to get too cocky before the sadly inevitable fall ;-)
Anyway, there's money in the bank and there are loads of opportunities in the lower reaches of the Football League this weekend so let's get to work.
League 1:
Milton Keynes Dons v Hartlepool (live on Sky Sports 2 from noon GMT)
Hartlepool have never beaten Milton Keynes/Wimbledon away from home - so I'm dutching MK Dons/draw on Betfair and having a go on MK Dons win at whoever has the best odds on Saturday morning. That's where Oddschecker.com is incredibly useful - this game is also the most likely from those mentioned here to feature Over 2.5 goals.
There's also quite a big advantage in this game being a couple of hours earlier than the rest of them - it's a live trading opportunity and if the outcomes are the ones we want then the money can be recycled later in the afternoon.
League 2:
Barnet v Cheltenham Town
The draw looks really tempting here, especially as three of the last four meetings between these two in Hertfordshire have ended all square and Cheltenham have never won at Underhill. Some kind of combination of Barnet/draw looks like the way forward especially as in Pete Nordsted and Matt Finnegan's 'Premier Football Betting Handbook' there's a straightforward way of dealing with prices for The Draw where that outcome is more frequent than 'normal'. When this method is applied, Barnet have a much better chance of the win. So having a side bet on a straight Barnet win wouldn't be the worst idea anyone's ever had.
Burton Albion v Hereford United
Hereford have only won once at Burton (five meetings) and there's never been a draw between those two at The Pirelli Stadium, so the stats favour a Burton win. One thing I wouldn't recommend in this type of scenario is laying The Draw - just because there hasn't been one before doesn't mean there won't be one in the future and it might happen tomorrow. Admittedly at the new £4 stake the liability is 'only' £11, but that's still too much in a situation where there are potentially profitable outcomes to be had; another one is that both teams could score
Chesterfield v Lincoln City
Should be a home win for the Spirerites. This is a very similar situation to MK Dons v Hartlepool, except Lincoln have won at Chesterfield (twice in the last ten meetings, last time four seasons ago) and at time of writing this the best odds for the primary outcomes are identical to those for the Milton Keynes match. So it shouldn't come as too much of a shock that I'm recommending a similar course of action.
There were a couple of games I looked at that didn't make the list and without going into massive amounts of detail it's worth a short explanation for future reference. Shrewsbury v Rotherham is one of those games that'll is too close to call in any case, but Rotherham have only drawn one of their last 20 league away matches; if this game was later in the season it might be a bit clearer as we'd have some sort of idea how Rotherham's 'in season' away form was shaping up. Bradford City v Port Vale is a weird one because Vale's away record is superb - once again, it may be worth coming back to them later in the season to see if they've maintained this record.
That'll do for now. More college football tomorrow...triple header on ESPN America but I doubt if I'll make it to the second half of Boise State v TCU though. I need to get some kip at some point ;-)
South Carolina and Iowa State both won, England won 4-0 and Shamrock Rovers were drawing 0-0 at half time but went on to win 1-0 courtesy of a spectacular Billy Dennehy free kick. So all good right now...but it's times like this that it pays not to get too cocky before the sadly inevitable fall ;-)
Anyway, there's money in the bank and there are loads of opportunities in the lower reaches of the Football League this weekend so let's get to work.
League 1:
Milton Keynes Dons v Hartlepool (live on Sky Sports 2 from noon GMT)
Hartlepool have never beaten Milton Keynes/Wimbledon away from home - so I'm dutching MK Dons/draw on Betfair and having a go on MK Dons win at whoever has the best odds on Saturday morning. That's where Oddschecker.com is incredibly useful - this game is also the most likely from those mentioned here to feature Over 2.5 goals.
There's also quite a big advantage in this game being a couple of hours earlier than the rest of them - it's a live trading opportunity and if the outcomes are the ones we want then the money can be recycled later in the afternoon.
League 2:
Barnet v Cheltenham Town
The draw looks really tempting here, especially as three of the last four meetings between these two in Hertfordshire have ended all square and Cheltenham have never won at Underhill. Some kind of combination of Barnet/draw looks like the way forward especially as in Pete Nordsted and Matt Finnegan's 'Premier Football Betting Handbook' there's a straightforward way of dealing with prices for The Draw where that outcome is more frequent than 'normal'. When this method is applied, Barnet have a much better chance of the win. So having a side bet on a straight Barnet win wouldn't be the worst idea anyone's ever had.
Burton Albion v Hereford United
Hereford have only won once at Burton (five meetings) and there's never been a draw between those two at The Pirelli Stadium, so the stats favour a Burton win. One thing I wouldn't recommend in this type of scenario is laying The Draw - just because there hasn't been one before doesn't mean there won't be one in the future and it might happen tomorrow. Admittedly at the new £4 stake the liability is 'only' £11, but that's still too much in a situation where there are potentially profitable outcomes to be had; another one is that both teams could score
Chesterfield v Lincoln City
Should be a home win for the Spirerites. This is a very similar situation to MK Dons v Hartlepool, except Lincoln have won at Chesterfield (twice in the last ten meetings, last time four seasons ago) and at time of writing this the best odds for the primary outcomes are identical to those for the Milton Keynes match. So it shouldn't come as too much of a shock that I'm recommending a similar course of action.
There were a couple of games I looked at that didn't make the list and without going into massive amounts of detail it's worth a short explanation for future reference. Shrewsbury v Rotherham is one of those games that'll is too close to call in any case, but Rotherham have only drawn one of their last 20 league away matches; if this game was later in the season it might be a bit clearer as we'd have some sort of idea how Rotherham's 'in season' away form was shaping up. Bradford City v Port Vale is a weird one because Vale's away record is superb - once again, it may be worth coming back to them later in the season to see if they've maintained this record.
That'll do for now. More college football tomorrow...triple header on ESPN America but I doubt if I'll make it to the second half of Boise State v TCU though. I need to get some kip at some point ;-)
Thursday, 2 September 2010
'It isn't necessary to see a good tackle. You can hear it.'
The title is a quote from legendary college cootball coach Knute Rockne and the NCAA Football season kicks off tonight (or tomorrow morning if you're me) and I've struck some season long bets on some of the conferencnes. I am really looking forward to both the college and the NFL seasons starting and I'll have some NFL recommendations posted over the next week or so.
To be fair to most of the online bookies, they've now worked out that there are a lot of American Football fans based in Europe who follow NCAA Football as well as the NFL version and so there are a much wider range of markets than there were even a couple of years ago. And as with almost every other sport, it definitely pays to shop around for the best odds - I've opened two new accounts in the past week. Trading can be a bit of a problem with late kick offs though, especially when Hawaii are at home; it's a bit like the LA baseball teams - I've actually watched extra innings games from the West Coast while I've been eating breakfast before now.
Without further ado, here are the selections I've already made:
Big 12 North: Nebraska
Big East: Pittsburgh
PAC 10: Oregon
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
(Pitt and Middle TN games are on the calendar, the rest will be up ASAP)
I've still got to place bets on the ACC, Big 10 and the SEC but that'll probably be on Saturday morning and even then I might leave the Big 10 alone - if Ohio State pummels Marshall tonight then they won't be worth backing for the Big 10 at all.
There are a couple of Week 1 games worth a look: ESPN America kicks off their coverage of the 2010 season with the South Carolina/Southern Mississippi game (back South Carolina, even though the price is rubbish) and I'm backing Iowa State to beat Northern Illinois. I've had a quick look at Saturday's programme and there are three games that look promising but more of them tomorrow.
I'm leaving the Euro 2012 qualifiers alone - England don't have any value at all, I'm expecting them not to lose. However, there is a really outstanding opportunity to implement the Strategy Without A Name in the Airtricity Premiership on Friday evening. Shamrock Rovers haven't lost at home to Sligo Rovers since January 1996 and there's an astonishing 60% chance of a draw at half time - so dutching Shamrock/draw for both the first half and the final score is what I'm recommending. I've not taken a detailed look at the goal expectation in this game but I expect it to be low.
There are a number of games in League 1 and League 2 this weekend that also look promising but I'll only post those that are worth looking at when I've run the numbers. I've also decided to double my Betfair stake from £2 to £4 so now I can think of any profits as pints rather than the weekend edition of the Racing Post ;-)
Final August Betfair figures: profit £27.54 (baseball £1.90, horse racing £7.60, soccer £18.52, tennis -0.48p)
Must do better at tennis in September then!
To be fair to most of the online bookies, they've now worked out that there are a lot of American Football fans based in Europe who follow NCAA Football as well as the NFL version and so there are a much wider range of markets than there were even a couple of years ago. And as with almost every other sport, it definitely pays to shop around for the best odds - I've opened two new accounts in the past week. Trading can be a bit of a problem with late kick offs though, especially when Hawaii are at home; it's a bit like the LA baseball teams - I've actually watched extra innings games from the West Coast while I've been eating breakfast before now.
Without further ado, here are the selections I've already made:
Big 12 North: Nebraska
Big East: Pittsburgh
PAC 10: Oregon
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
(Pitt and Middle TN games are on the calendar, the rest will be up ASAP)
I've still got to place bets on the ACC, Big 10 and the SEC but that'll probably be on Saturday morning and even then I might leave the Big 10 alone - if Ohio State pummels Marshall tonight then they won't be worth backing for the Big 10 at all.
There are a couple of Week 1 games worth a look: ESPN America kicks off their coverage of the 2010 season with the South Carolina/Southern Mississippi game (back South Carolina, even though the price is rubbish) and I'm backing Iowa State to beat Northern Illinois. I've had a quick look at Saturday's programme and there are three games that look promising but more of them tomorrow.
I'm leaving the Euro 2012 qualifiers alone - England don't have any value at all, I'm expecting them not to lose. However, there is a really outstanding opportunity to implement the Strategy Without A Name in the Airtricity Premiership on Friday evening. Shamrock Rovers haven't lost at home to Sligo Rovers since January 1996 and there's an astonishing 60% chance of a draw at half time - so dutching Shamrock/draw for both the first half and the final score is what I'm recommending. I've not taken a detailed look at the goal expectation in this game but I expect it to be low.
There are a number of games in League 1 and League 2 this weekend that also look promising but I'll only post those that are worth looking at when I've run the numbers. I've also decided to double my Betfair stake from £2 to £4 so now I can think of any profits as pints rather than the weekend edition of the Racing Post ;-)
Final August Betfair figures: profit £27.54 (baseball £1.90, horse racing £7.60, soccer £18.52, tennis -0.48p)
Must do better at tennis in September then!
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