The Season In England Comes To A Close

We've got the last two play off finals coming up this weekend: Millwall v Swindon for a place in the Championship and Dagenham & Redbridge v Rotherham meet to replace whoever wins in League 1. Once again, the win markets are skewed a little because the prospect of extra time and/or penalties could decide the games, but although I expect Rotherham to escape League 2, I'm not sure which team will reach the Championship. Millwall are favoured, but I'm not sure why. It's reasonable to try to set odds for a game at a neutral site based on away form, in which case Swindon have a better record - and Millwall have not scored an away goal in the last three games.

I'm going to follow the same system that I used last Saturday - which sort of worked! Under 3.5 goals was blown away in the first half at Wembley, but Over 1.5 worked both at Wembley and in Madrid and Inter's 2-0 win over Bayern Munich meant that Under 3.5 worked in the Champions League final. Dagenham & Redbridge v Rotherham should be OK for both, but as the last game between Millwall and Swindon finished 3-2 to the side from East London.

Real Madrid sacked Massimo Pellegrini during the week, which leaves the job open for Jose Mourinho. It remains to be seen if Blackpool's Ian Holloway will be approached by Inter Milan for the Special One's old job in Italy.

Incidentally, laying Inter Milan for the 2010/11 Champions League should be done as soon as the opportunity is available: no club has won back to back Champions Leagues. I'd also be a little circumspect about Blackpool being relegated from the Premiership next season: there will be better prices for other teams and as both Hull and Bradford City have shown in the past, relegation is not inevitable. I also wouldn't back Holloway to be the first manager to be sacked next season.

A racing lay for tomorrow: Just Sam in the 5:40 at Newcastle.

Swan Song In Madrid?

Two massive games on Saturday: the Championship play off final between Blackpool and Cardiff City and in the evening the final of the UEFA Champions League between Inter Milan and Bayern Munich. Not surprisingly, considering both games are 'finals' played at neutral venues (Cardiff are a Welsh team after all) they could turn out to be very similar types of games.

Blackpool and Cardiff kick off first, so let's start there. I think Cardiff will win and get promoted to the Premiership but that's not something I'm going to trade. These games have been extremely tight over the past few seasons - the average margin of victory over the last 20 games is 1.35 goals, five of the last seven games have finished 1-0 and the losing side has failed to score in ten of the last thirteen. Having written all that, I have a feeling that both teams may score - but if they do, remember that there's a correlation between both sides scoring and the game going to extra time. The last four games where both teams scored went to extra time and two of those went to penalty shoot outs.

Being naturally risk averse (that will become much clearer next season), I'm going to trade the following markets:

* Lay under 0.5 goals. There is always at least one goal in 90 minutes in these games - even if it's only one. In that case, it's also logical to lay 0-0 - it's extremely unlikely that will happen.

* Back over 1.5 goals - but remember, that's the same as laying under 1.5 goals, but you'll probably get better odds that way round (even if the potential liability is higher)

* Back under 3.5 goals and under 4.5 goals. Once again, that's the same as laying over 3.5 goals...well, you get the picture.

The one market I'm leaving well alone is Over/Under 2.5 goals. The logic I've presented above indicates my belief that there will be at least one goal but there probably won't be more than three; that also rules in scores like 1-0 (five of the last seven games, remember?), 1-1 (here's where it's likely to go to extra time at least) and 2-1 (which is a really common score in English football but hasn't happened in a Championship play off final since the end of the 1995/6 season - and that was after extra time)

One last point before moving on to Inter v Bayern: this season, Cardiff scored 58% of their goals in the league before 50 minutes and Blackpool scored 64% of their goals after 50 minutes. In that case it might be reasonable to assume that the longer the game goes without a goal, the more likely Blackpool are to nick it; a Cardiff goal in the first 20 minutes is a distinct possibility.

The average margin of victory in European Cup/Champions League finals is 1.15 goals but there are no current scoring sequences like there are in the Championship playoff final.

In actual fact, there's something to be said for looking for trading opportunities in the same goal markets as the Blackpool v Cardiff game. In fact, there is a recent trend for both teams to score in the Champions League final - Barcelona's 2-0 win over Manchester United last season was the first time that only the winners had scored since Porto's win over Monaco in 2004. Porto's manager that day: Jose Mourinho.

Both Mourinho and his Bayern counterpart Louis Van Gaal have won the competition, but if you're looking for intangibles it's probably worth remembering that although Bayern Munich won in 2001, Inter have not won since their 1965 win over Benfica and haven't appeared in the final since they lost to Ajax in 1972: their local rivals AC Milan have played in seven of the last 20 finals and have won four of them. Having won five consecutive Serie A titles, a win for Inter tomorrow night would make the point that the balance of power in Italy has changed: unfortunately for them, it might also be Mourinho's swansong with the Nerazzuri and a chance for him to establish a myth in the stadium which is rumoured to be his new home...

Least Interesting Post So Far

Unirea Urziceni won, Pandurii and Timisoara drew...and Heavenly Dawn won. I layed her last night (ooh err missus) and the back price had drifted to the point where I decided to trade out before the race - she was last into the stalls and her price rose even higher due to her skittish behaviour, but that was because she really wanted to get going.

No football tomorrow, the only lay prospect I can see is Volatilis in the 5:00pm race at Nottingham - he's got a good recent record but his only win came on the polytrack at Kempton in February, which is a bit different from a grass track in May. Not too bothered though, I might spend some time looking at the Blackpool v Cardiff championship play off final and the Champions League Final on Saturday.

A Trip To Romania

Chelsea and Dundee United won their respective Cup Finals, as did Bayern Munich, but due to the late-ish kick off and also because it was my wife's birthday meal I didn't get involved...which was a shame, because I was specifically looking at Over 2.5 goals.

Bayern won 4-0. Ah well.

Huddersfield drew 0-0 with Millwall (not Cardiff, apologies for the mistake), but I managed to trade out successfully - if Millwall had won I'd have been out of pocket. Verdant also did the business, comingin 7th of 15 at 2/1 so all in all it was a reasonably successful weekend.

On Monday I'm looking at two games in the Romanian 1 Liga that will affect issues at the top and the bottom: at 18:00 GMT second placed Unirea Urziceni take on Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt (the 'Carpathian Bears') in a classic end of season game: Unirea need a win to keep their title hopes alive while the Carpathian Bears need the points to escape from the relegation zone.

Worth taking a Unirea win; they have only lost twice in their last 20 1.Liga games and are currently on a three game win streak without conceding a goal. Their opponents have lost four of their last five away games.

At 7:45pm there's an intriguing game between Pandurii Targu Jiu (one place above Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt) and fourth placed Timisoara. Having compiled some guide odds earlier,the draw is overpriced at 12/5 and ought to be nearer evens. If you fancy trading it, it might be worth backing it before kick off and then laying if the price shortens as the game goes on - there probably won't be many goals in this game (65% chance of under 2.5 according to my figures) so time may be on your side. To put this game into some kind of context, Pandurii have drawn nine of their last 12 home games and Timisoara have only lost one of their last ten aways; Pandurii also have an extremely good defensive record at home and are only in relegation trouble because they can't score at home and are dreadful away.

Lay of the Day is Heavenly Dawn in the 8:10 at Windsor. Like Verdant, this is another horse trained by Sir Michael Stoute: this time Richie Mullen is aboard. Even though the stable has won this particular race on three of the last four occasions and Heavenly Dawn may be the antepost favourite, neither trainer nor jockey has a good recent record at the course and there are some decent looking alternatives.

Cup Final Day!

Cup Finals in England, Scotland and Germany today but the only one I'm going to get involved with is the German final between Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen at 7:00pm GMT (8:00pm CET).

Chelsea and Dundee United should win today but Dundee United's game against Ross County is problematic because the stats I normally use to compile odds are not particularly useful when comparing teams from different divisions. Chelsea should probably beat Portsmouth at Wembley, but as I found out last night, heavy favourites don't always win games they ought to on paper. I backed Real Sociedad to beat Castellon in La Liga 2 but despite being reduced to eight men, Castellon (who are bottom of the division) hung on for a 0-0 draw against Sociedad (top of the division).

I'm definitely looking for a Huddersfield win this lunchtime in their play off game against Millwall but I learned a lesson this week in the Cardiff v Leicester City game. Cardiff got to Wembley to meet Blackpool in the final, but lost the game (I backed them to win) which had to be decided on penalties ie outside the 90 minutes. What I should have done is picked Cardiff to qualify - and that's yet another strategy to remember for Cup Finals. Going back to Chelsea v Portsmouth, it may be worth picking Chelsea as tournament winners if they score first, but the odds may not be worth taking at that point.

Will post later about Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen, but have to monitor the Huddersfield v Cardiff game now. I'm also recommending laying Verdant in the 2:30pm race at Newbury this afternoon.

Happy Birthday To My Wife

No tips today, but a big Happy Birthday to my wife!

Cardiff got through by the skin of their teeth, as did Atletico Madrid despite a great effort from Fulham.

Should be back on Friday...with a bit of advice. That I should remember myself!

Blackpool Through...Who's Next?

Blackpool won a sensational game at the City Ground tonight: having beaten Nottingham Forest 4-2 (and I was not expecting that many goals so it was probably just as well I didn't commit any cash to that), they'll be playing for a place in the Premiership in a week and a half. But who will face them?

I think it'll be Cardiff City. Having already won at Leicester at the weekend they have a genuine advantage which I think they can exploit. Cardiff have lost once in their last fourteen home games, have won six of their last ten homes games against the Foxes including the last two meetings - which includes both the league and FA Cup this season. I was considering looking at the over/under 2.5 goal market but Cardiff's win odds are pretty good so I'm not going to bother.

As for the Europa League final, I'm interested to see what happens but not sufficiently motivated to get involved with my wallet...I'm going to go for Atletico Madrid with neither side keeping a clean sheet but I'd be delighted if Fulham won.

No 'official' racing tips for Wednesday, but the wonderfully named Frosted Grape might be worth a look in the 3:55 at Exeter.

Yet Another Mixed Bag

I'm going to take the evening off on Tuesday, purely because although I'd love to find an angle in the markets for the second leg of the Nottingham Forest v Blackpool Championship playoff semi final, I just cannot find one. So I'm going to simply watch the game instead.

Trabzonspor beat Denizlispor 2-1 earlier, although the markets got a bit jumpy after Denizlispor equalized before half time. Blue Tango would have been a better lay (he finished last!) and Captain Smoothy was a non-runner.

Turkey Dinner

Chelsea 8, Wigan 0. I don't think I need to elaborate.

Monday's football selection is the game in the Turkish Super Lig between Trabzonspor and Denizlispor. Neither team has anything to play for - the hosts failed to qualify for Europe and the visitors have been relegated - but Trabzonspor will be looking to finish the season on a positive note, should win this game and ought to be available at around 1.33.

I've also taken a preliminary look at the League 1 and League 2 play off semi finals and although these games are usually really close, Aldershot v Rotherham in League 2 looks really tight. More analysis follows, probably tomorrow at this rate.

Regarding racing, I've got what I think is a reasonably good each way bet: Blue Tango (being backed at about 3.4 at time of writing) in the 4:10 at Brighton. He's finished second in his last two races on the South Coast and jockey Neil Callan has a decent record down there too. Lay of the day is Captain Smoothy in the 7:00 at Towcester.

Chelsea To Win The Premiership

Unusually for the Premiership, the only issue to be settled on the final day is who wins the title. Only two clubs can and both of them have games they should win easily - Manchester United host Stoke City and Chelsea entertain Wigan. The latter is my tip of the day: a Chelsea win and over 2.5 goals at Stamford Bridge. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that over 3.5 goals is highly likely: Chelsea have scored an average of 3.35 goals per game over their last twenty home games so they could easily cover that themselves. It shouldn't be forgotten that Wigan lost 9-1 at Spurs earlier in the season and that Chelsea have put seven past teams that are much better than Wigan during 2009/2010.

Debrecen Take Control

Unfortunately time constraints mean I can't really write much of a preview for tomorrow, but here's the headline stuff:

Debrecen 3, Fehervar 2: despite going behind early once again, Debrecen established a four point lead at the top of NB1 with three games left. Still close, but they've just dispatched their closest rivals and must now be favourites to win the title. If I could find some odds to prove that I would, but Hungarian football is not a major European market.

Viva Ronaldo (14/1) finished second behind Dance and Dance at Chester, which is a bit too close for comfort IMHO. Still, the laying streak is still alive so I'm not complaining.

Tomorrow I've identified a couple of games in the German Bundesliga that might be worth taking a look at from an Over 2.5 goal point of view: the one I'd recommend would be Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt. The last three meetings between these teams in Wolfsburg have ended in 2-2 draws and 17 of Wolfsburg's last 20 home games have featured over 2.5 goals - the average goals per game at the Volkswagen Arena in that period is over four. Factor in Edin Dzeko, Grafite and Eintracht Frankfurt's Alexander Meier (42 league goals between the three of them this season) and there are definitely goals in this game. Just a case of how many!

If I get time tomorrow I'll post some more stuff but after a busy day I'm on babysitting duties tomorrow night so it might have to be Sunday. Have a good weekend.

Hungary For More?

Despite being down to ten men for most of the game after Honduran midfielder Luis Arcangel Colon Ramos was sent off, Debrecen beat Vasas 3-0...the third goal came right at the end of the second half.

I am staying with Hungarian football on Friday - Debrecen play leaders Fehervar at 6.00pm GMT in what looks like a 'winner takes all' game. Fehervar lost at home to MTK on Tuesday which gave Debrecen a one point lead with four games left to play. The numbers strongly suggest a Debrecen win - six of the last seven games between these two in Eastern Hungary have been wins for the hosts.

Stamford Blue did the honours, coming in fifth albeit it at a much higher price than I thought (33/1). Tomorrow I'll be looking at Viva Ronaldo at the 4.30 in Chester - he's done well in his previous runs at the course, but the going looks to be against him.

Will be back tomorrow with a look at what's happening on Saturday.

All Things Seem Possible In May

That's a quote from Edwin Way Teale, who you can read about here.

Back to Hungary for Tuesday's pick: it's a two horse race between Fehervar and Debrecen for the Hungarian Championship, both of them are in action and Debrecen arguably have the easier game against Vasas Budapest. The hosts haven't drawn at home this season but I'm interested in the goals in this one: in particular Over 2.5, which ought to be about 2/7 (1.28). Nine of the last ten games between these teams in Debrecen have finished with more than 2.5 goals.

The first Lay Of The Day for May is Stamford Blue in the 5.30 at Bath, should be about 11/1 or similar. He'll probably be the only thing connected with Chelsea to lose this week.

Had an interesting weekend...Rafael Nadal won in Rome, I laid Angel Cabrera and then had to trade out when he took the lead in the final round at Quail Hollow and I missed out on a few football matches but I had a good rest and that's the main thing. Looking forward to Wednesday though - loads of big games.

The best thing of all though...the £50 I won on the Betfair Facebook competition a week ago was credited into my account. From little acorns...