Happy New Year

Haven't had much time to post over Christmas (which has been a bit of an eye opener to say the least) so in case I don't post anything between today and New Year's Eve I'll wish anyone reading a profitable 2011.

Late Porto Goals Ruin Sunday

Three out of four yesterday, but here comes the bad beat story - why the hell did Porto feel they had to score twice in injury time in a game they'd already won is beyond me.

Anway, no use crying over spilled milk so on we go. Funniest thing I've seen so far this week was this incident from the Larisa/Olympiakos game from yesterday, The Olympiakos player reacting as if he'd been hit by a sniper is Vasilis Torisidis.




Portugal

7:45pm
Vitoria Guimaraes v Sporting Lisbon
Can't see much of a chance of a home win here (Guimaraes have lost four of the five games when Sporting have visited) and there might not be many goals either. Opposing Guimaraes is the play though and if Sporting win there's a good chance there'll be more than 2.5 goals - 12 of the 13 games they've picked up away from home have come in games where there have been more than that.



Premiership
8:00pm
Manchester City v Everton
The Toffees have won four of the last six meetings in the Prem at Manchester City and although I don't think they've got the quality to win tonight, that kind of record can't be discounted so it might be worth looking elsewhere. Six of the last ten league meetings in Manchester have been under 2.5 goals; City's home defensive record is currently one of the best in the division (five clean sheets in eight games) and six of Everton's eight away games have been under 2.5 goals; they held Chelsea to a draw in their last road trip.

Free Tips For Sunday 19th December

After a good start to the weekend, things didn’t exactly go to plan yesterday – poor finishing by Bolton and Blackburn, good finishing by Rio Ave and a late goal from Sporting Gijon meant that I took a hit, which hasn’t helped by the games at Watford and Lokeren being postponed. Still running at a profit for December though, even if it's not as healthy as it was.



Here are today’s tips, let’s see what happens.

Spain
4:00pm
Osasuna v Real Zaragoza
Oppose Zaragoza, under 2.5 goals

Greece
5:30pm
Larisa v Olympiakos
Under 2.5 goals - big shock in Greece yesterday, Olympiacos Volos won at Panathinaikos, which was Pana's first home defeat this season.


France
8:00pm
Marseille v Lyon
The numbers suggest that Marseille could be ahead at half time but that Lyon could come back to earn a pont. Both teams to score looks as if it could take a lot of the guesswork out of the situation.

Portugal
8:15pm
Pacos de Ferriera v FC Porto
Under 2.5 goals - Porto have kept four clean sheets their six away games this season, notably at Rio Ave and Academica, who are about the same standard as Pacos. The visitors have not scored more than two goals in a league game since the end of last season.

Free Tips For Friday 17th and Saturday 18th December

Here are my tips for Friday and Saturday, it's looking as if the weather might have an impact again in the UK and Belgium so it's worth checking out if the games are still on. By far the best way of doing this is by looking at the official club websites as sometimes the odds comparison sites are a bit behind.

As usual, teams in bold represent the best chance of a straight win, teams in bold caps are what I consider to be home bankers.

FRIDAY
Championship
7:45pm
DONCASTER v Middlesbrough
Boro's dreadful away record is offset here by their recent successes in South Yorkshire: they've won the last three league meetings but have yet to win on the road against any team currently above them.

Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Academica


SATURDAY
Premiership
12:45pm
Sunderland v Bolton
Draw, under 2.5
0-0 or 1-1 correct score could be worth backing


3:00pm
Blackburn v West Ham
Blackburn should at least score, but Sam Allardyce's sacking casts something of a shadow over the proceedings.


Championship
3:00pm
Hull v Bristol City
Under 2.5 goals


Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Forest have won six of the last ten head to head in the Midlands and are unbeaten in home games against teams below them - Palace have lost six of eight away games against teams above them.


Watford v Preston postponed
Over 2.5 goals


Greece
3:15
Panionios v Asteras Tripolis
Under 2.5 goals - although caution here as the last three league games in the Athenian suburb of Nea Smyri have been decisively over 2.5 (average goals per game of four)...may not be value, so check the prices before parting with your cash.


Portugal
5:00pm
Benfica v Rio Ave
Benfica are another team where there's never any value in backing them at home, so a clean sheet for the Eagles might be worth a look. After a shock 1-2 home defeat by Academica on the opening day, they've kept six in a row. Rio Ave have scored in half of their away games but four of those five goals came against inferior opposition and they were shut out when they travelled to Sporting Lisbon earlier in October; Benfica have stopped them scoring in three of their last five league visits.


Spain
5pm
Deportivo La Coruna v Sporting Gijon


Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Cercle Bruges
Lokeren are easily the most improved team at home in the Jupiler League this season, although leaders Genk aren't far behind. Cercle are playing at about the same level as last season and lost this game 5-3 last season. POSTPONED


Zulte-Waregem v Westerlo
Over 2.5 goals
Zulte-Waregem have scored in nine of their ten home games this season, Westerlo in seven of their nine aways. Both teams to score is the cheaper alternative.


France
8:00pm
St Etienne v Arles
Oppose Arles - although St Etienne have only lost once at home this season, they haven't won at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in the league since mid September. Arles have drawn at Brest and Monaco and both those sides have drawn have the majority of their home games - just like St. Etienne. The hosts have scored in all of their home games in Ligue 1 this season.

Toulouse v Lorient
Under 2.5 goals

Mixed Night For Champions League Hopefuls

Manchester United beat Arsenal 1-0, but I've got no idea what Valencia were doing last night. 3-1 up at half time and with half an hour to go, they ended up dropping two points at home to Osasuna when Carlos Aranda scored the equaliser with three minutes left.

Suffice to say I am not pleased at all with that result: there are now two teams on my Champions League blacklist - Inter Milan (I could have told them that appointing Rafa Benitez was a mistake - if the rumours are to believed he'll be out of a job before Christmas, with Fabio Capello favourite to take over) and Valencia. Don't even consider backing either of them to appear at Wembley next May.

I'm working on this weekend's tips right now, they'll be up as soon as I've finished them.

Late Goals May Be Key To Man U v Arsenal

First of all, although I'll be watching Manchester United v Arsenal I'm not going to get involved - especially as Valencia v Osasuna offers more clear cut opportunities. There's nothing wrong with writing a preview though.

This is easily Manchester United's toughest home game in the Premiership so far this season. Based on Friday's table they've only played one other top five team at home in 2010/11 (Spurs) and the average position of their opponents is thirteenth. Arsenal have had a slightly easier away schedule despite playing at Chelsea and Manchester City.


United should be about evens for the win - they've won seven of their eight home games in the Prem this season and have beaten Arsenal in six of the last ten league meetings at Old Trafford. The Gunners didn't get off to a great start away from the Emirates (four points from 12) but have won their last four consecutive away games.


Unfortunately for the outright markets, that's where any interest ends. The current best prices on the draw no bet market are 4/9 for United and 2/1 for Arsenal: the double chance market isn't even worth considering.


A couple of facts about the goals markets stand out immediately. Despite winning four of the last 20 meetings at United, Arsenal have failed to score more than one goal in the league at Old Trafford since November 1984, so if the Gunners stand any chance of picking three points up in the North West, they have to stop United from scoring.


And there's the rub. United have failed to score only once in the last 50 Premiership games (last December against Aston Villa) and even when they lose at home they score. Arsenal have won 'to nil' twice away from home this season, but beating a Manchester City team that played almost the entire game with ten men and a Wolves team that's clearly struggling doesn't exactly inspire confidence. To underline this point, Arsenal have taken the lead against United in two of the last three league meetings in the North West but only went on to win one of those games.


Looking at it the other way round, if Manchester United stop Arsenal from scoring they will at least earn a point. United have kept four clean sheets in the league this season but Newcastle, West Ham and Wigan don't have the same potential for goals that Arsenal do; nine different players have scored for Arsenal in their away games in the Premiership this season - Marouane Chamakh is the leading scorer with three.

I only usually look at goal times for big games and although I already knew that late goals were a feature of United's games, I was astonished when I took a close look at goal times in games featuring these teams this season. There have been a lot, although strangely enough only two of the late goals in Arsenal's games have had any affect on the result of the game: Pepe Reina's own goal in August meant that the Gunners gained a point at Anfield and a month later Darren Bent's equaliser for Sunderland meant Arsenal dropped rwo points. Since then late goals in Arsenal's away games have either been padding their lead or consolation goals for the opponents.

United's late goals in the Premiership at Old Trafford have a similar pattern - two decisive goals (Berbatov's winner against Liverpool and Park's winner against Wolves), one that made the game safe (Nani's ridiculous goal against Spurs) and one to make the score look one sided (Ryan Giggs against Newcastle).

Verdict: Arsenal probably won't win, but there are a lot of things to keep an eye out for. Will United concede a first half goal for the first time this season? Can Arsenal score two goals at Old Trafford for the first time in a quarter of a century? Will Howard Webb award a penalty or give anyone a red card?

Away from the Premier League, Valencia's game with Osasuna looks far more clear cut. The visitors have only picked up one point away from home this season, Valencia have won nine of the last ten league meetings between the two sides at the Mestalla and this looks like a low scoring game that Valencia should win, possibly keeping a clean sheet in doing so.

Results Round Up

60% strike rate last weekend but still made a minor loss (less than one point) mainy due to chasing draws that didn't come off - I mentioned yesterday that Valenciennes v PSG was the only slightly annoying one but I obviously jinxed Real Mallorca!

Overall just over three points profit for December so I'm not complaining. I broke even on Anderlecht because I was watching the live feed on Betfair at the same time as the Spurs/Chelsea game and although Lokeren were reduced to ten men after Koen Persoons was sent off after half an hour, the hosts had neither the flair nor the imagination to break down the Lokeren defence. When the draw price had dropped down to 1.44 (the same price I backed the Anderlecht win) I took it and the game finished goalless so I broke even.

Big game in the Premiership tonight, but despite investigating various angles I'm leaving it alone - it's interesting to note that Arsenal haven't scored more than one goal at Old Trafford in the league since November 1984 and that even when they lose at home United still manage to score. There are far more opportunities in the Valencia/Osasuna game in Spain this evening and I'll be back later with at least one recommendation.

Finally for now, the New England Patriots are looking formidable in the NFL and the College Bowl season starts on Saturday, so I'll definitely be taking a look at some of those games.

Free Football Betting Tips For Sunday 12th December

No home banker today because as far as I can see all the teams in bold have as good a chance of winning as any other. Made a loss of £3.80(!) over the last two days, the only one I was a bit miffed at was Valenciennes equalised with less than ten minutes left in their game against PSG...only for PSG to score what turned out to be the winning goal two minutes later. From a 'keep an eye on them' point of view, Zulte-Waregem in Belgium are looking hard to beat away from home.


Greece
3:15pm
AEK Athens v Larissa
Opposing Larissa in both halves would be a good idea, although it's only fair that I point out that AEK have now gone beyond 20 home games in the league without losing. It would be a big shock if Larissa - currently bottom - won in Athens though.


Spain
4:00pm
Real Mallorca v Racing Santander
It sounds a bit boring, but once again the right play would be to oppose Santander in both halves. They're on a twelve game losing streak away from home and have been behind at half time in every single one of their away games this season.


Belgium
5:00pm
Anderlecht v Lokeren

7:30pm
Kortrijk v Lierse
Kortrijk shouldn't have any problems in this game, but despite Lierse losing 7-0 to Standard Liege in their last road trip there's a possibility that this could be a low scoring win for the home side. Kortrijk might also keep a clean sheet - they've done that in five of their seven home games this season - but also because Lierse have failed to score in four of their last eight aways.


Spain
8:00pm
Barcelona v Real Sociedad
I'm going to assume that there's no value for a Barcelona win (there almost never is at home in La Liga) and suggest that laying 0-0 (if you can afford it) would be better. Alternatively, given that Real Sociedad's record at Camp Nou is wretched - 12 straight defeats - and Barca have kept clean sheets in the last four league meetings, backing a home clean sheet might be worth a look.

Free Soccer Betting Tips For Friday and Saturday

I've also got some pre-Christmas socialising to do this weekend, hence the early post.

The weather is still playing havoc across Europe and that's why I've got nothing for Portugal - the last round of games is scheduled to finish this afternoon, but even that far south the wind is causing problems and it'll be worth checking to see if some of the northern European games are still on before parting with your cash.

Both the Hungarian and Croatian leagues have gone into hibernation and won't be back until February, but I've done some research into both of them are there are some very strong trends to exploit when they resume at the end of February.

Gent would have been my home banker selection on Saturday, but there's next to no value in the win market. So teams in bold represent the best chances of home wins; Sunday tips will be up either tomorrow or Friday and I'm going to have an depth look at Manchester United v Arsenal as well.

FRIDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
7:45pm
Swansea v Millwall under 2.5 goals

SATURDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm
Burnley v Leeds over 2.5 goals
Reading v Coventry


GREECE
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Aris Salonika under 2.5 goals
Aris could be the most boring side in Europe at the moment. There's only been one goal in every one of their six away games.

5:30pm
PAOK v Iraklis half time draw


FRANCE
6:00pm
Lorient v Lens
Draw/Lorient might work in this game, but any way to oppose Lens looks more likely to pay off. The visitors have not been ahead at half time in any of their seven away games in Ligue 1 this season, Lorient have only been behind once in their eight home games but have been level in four of them. Additionally, Lorient have won the last three league games between these two at the Stade de Moustoir.

Valenciennes v PSG
Draw. Two of the last four league games on the Belgian border have been draws and the hosts have drawn recent games with Lille and St. Etienne. PSG are on a three game away drawing streak,  and their away record is similar to that of QPR.


BELGIUM
7:00pm
Gent v Charleroi
Gent should win this at a canter, but there's absolutely no value here apart from in the over 2.5 goals market.

Cercle Brugge v Zulte Waregem
Although Cercle Brugge's home record is superior to Zulte's away record, the visitors have only lost one of their last six league games at the Jan Breydel stadium and they're the draw specialists in the Jupiler League this season. Although Cercle could win this, there's value to be had on a draw at half time with 0-0 as a possible correct score after 45 minutes.

Ten Man Espanyol Win & Keep A Clean Sheet

Very satisfactory late afternoon early evening.

Even after going down to ten men early in the second half following the dismissal of Jose Baena, Espanyol beat Sporting Gijon 1-0. There were also single goal victories for Villareal and Sunderland, so not a bad day at the office at all.

Very big game in the NFL tonight, I might post a preview later but unless something really statistically significant stands out then I won't be making any recommendations.

Free Tips For Sunday 5th December

Oddly enough, despite being from different leagues, there's a common theme to the games I'm looking at today. With the possible exception of Villareal v Sevilla, the other games feature away sides that aren't doing particularly well at the moment but have decent records at the teams they're visiting today. Bold represents home win, bold caps is a home banker.

Spain
4:00pm
ESPANYOL v Sporting Gijon
Espanyol have failed to beat Sporting Gijon in any of the last six home games in Barcelona, but they're on a seven game home winning streak while Gijon have failed to win any of their last fourteen away games. There are good reasons to support a nibble at an Espanyol clean sheet too - in four of their six home games this season they've prevented their opponents from scoring and Gijon have failed to score in the four away games where they've faced opponents that are currently above them in the league.

6:00pm
Villareal v Sevilla
Villareal have a formidable home record over the last 20 games (only two defeats) and have only lost twice at home to Sevilla in the league in the last decade. There's a bit of health warning on this game though as the visitors have now gone 26 games without an away draw(!) but the last time Sevilla travelled to a top four side Barcelona beat them 5-0. Although Villareal aren't in the same class as Barcelona I think they're a genuine contender for Champions League football next season and they should win this one.

Watching Brief Only
Premiership
4:00pm
Sunderland v West Ham
Raw numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw and opposing West Ham seems like the logical thing to do, but Sunderland's home record against teams that are currently below them in the Premiership features two draws in three games so a draw cannot be completely ruled out. Sunderland have only won eight of their last 20 games at the Stadium of Light and as West Ham haven't won an away game for well over a year now they are due a win at some point; The trouble is will it come today?
Recommendation: nice pot of tea and some crumpets, feet up and curse the fact you didn't back a West Ham win.

Saturday Results

Not bad at all, although at one point during the Leeds v Crystal Palace this afternoon I didn't think it was going to come off. The only duffer was backing the draw in the first half at Manchester City, but the game in Portugal that I mentioned yesterday ended up with Sporting Braga being reduced to eight players and losing 3-1.

More to come tomorrow, I've already ruled a couple of potential games out.

Tips For December 4th

Main one is don't go out unless you have to!

Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.

Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves

Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals

Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.

Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.

UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.

Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.

I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.

The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.

I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.

The Joke Is On Us...Again.

Can't be bothered to write much after that travesty, so I'll leave it at that. If it's any consolation, I think there might be concerns raised about Russian suitability as a host well before 2018.

And as far Qatar...that's an even bigger joke. Are all the stadiums going to be air conditioned or something? There are a lot of cultural issues on both sides as well.

World Cup 2018

No tips today, just some thoughts.

I was only two years old in 1966 so I don't remember anything about the tournament. On the day of the final my mum, her mum and I went for a walk in the park as there's no doubt that I would have been too disruptive and my dad and my grandad wouldn't have appreciated that.

A couple of years later the team from the town I grew up in reached the Amateur Cup Final: my dad and one of his mates went to see them lose 1-0 at Wembley and I wanted to go. Not because I understood why they were going: I didn't want to be miss whatever was happening because the whole town was excited about it. My mum - who was seven months pregnant - and I spent the afternoon with some family friends, who - then as now - are Watford supporters.

We're only a few hours away from the vote that decides the host country for the 2018 finals and I've just watched the final presentation by the FA bid team: it was great stuff and I'm not ashamed to say that I got a little emotional about it. Apart from a few wild years where I didn't really pay much attention to what was happening (those years were called the mid eighties, which were a spectacularly crap time for English football), I've been a football fan since I was seven years old and being able to see a World Cup in England is something I've always wanted to do.

The result will be in at 3:00pm GMT and I'll post something then.

Free Tip For Friday December 3rd

It's the final weekend before the winter break in both Croatia and Hungary this weekend - neither of them restart until the last weekend in February(!), so there'll be plenty of time for me to do some analysis on how both leagues are shaping up before they start playing again. I'm thinking of adding a PDF for each to the blog in the near future, but I'll post when they're available.

There's only one game worth looking at on Friday afternoon in Croatia and Inter Zaprešić v Cibalia (3:00pm GMT) isn't going to be a classic. The weather will be zero degrees and snowing at kickoff time, it's the last game before Christmas and neither of these teams are what you might call prolific in front of goal. Zaprešić's eight home games this season have produced a grand total of eighteen goals, while there have been only 11 goals in Cibalia's eight away games, so it's hardly a huge surprise that I'm recommending under 2.5 goals.

In keeping with the last couple of weekends, I'll be posting some tips from the less exposed European Leagues over the next few days and for the first time this season I'll be including Greece.