Spartak Nalchik Win Puts Pressure On Rubin Kazan

Important win for Spartak Nalchik: two goals in two minutes inside the first quarter of an hour set up a 2-1 win over Amkar Perm. Spartak Nalchik are now only a point behind second place Rubin Kazan, who travel to leaders Zenit for the game of the day in Russia.

I'll be returning to Russia later on, but as there's an early game in the J-League I've got my eye on I'll keep updating this post throughout the day.


Kashima Antlers take on Vissel Kobe (11:00am GMT, live streaming available at bet365 and Betfair) and the Antlers look like a decent prospect. Kashima have won the last three editions of the J-League, lead the 2010 version by a point from Shimizu S-Pulse and are currently on a ten game undefeated home streak in the league. Vissel Kobe's recent form has improved slightly but they still only have one away win in their last thirteen away games and they are currently only three points outside the relegation zone. Today's interesting fact: 'Vissel' is supposed to be a combination of the words 'victory' and 'vessel'...not sure in which universe that works, but more of the same here: http://www.engrish.com/


I'm going to leave the half time and goals markets alone as the data is not as clear cut as some of the other games I've analysed recently, all I would say about the goals market is that you can't have exactly 2.5 goals in a football match...Final: Kashima Antlers 3, Vissel Kobe 0


Next game is in Russia (18:00GMT): mid-table Dynamo Moscow against Krylya Sovetov, who are bottom. This is one of those games that ought to come with a bit of a health warning: based on this season's form in the Russian Premier league, Dynamo ought to win this easily. But look a bit further back and although it looks more likely that Krylya Sovetov won't win, it becomes less clear that a Dynamo win is as likely as it might appear.


The key stat in this game is that Krylya Sovetov have failed to score in half of their last twenty away league games in the Russian Premiership and have only scored one goal away from home this season - they took an early lead in a game they eventually lost 4-1. They have not scored at all in the second half of their away games. Combine that with Dynamo keeping clean sheets in half of their home league games this season and suddenly there are some possibilities:
 
* Given their first half record this season, Dynamo might not win the first half, but probably won't be behind either.
 
* Krylya probably won't win this game and there's a good chance they won't score either, but laying them outright could be expensive.
 
Dutching Dynamo Moscow and draw at half time might be worth looking at, but dutching the HT/FT scores that favour Dynamo and the draw could also work. Using £10 stakes and the current market prices, these options would look something like this:
 
Dynamo winning at half time: £10 at 1.87 = £8.70 profit (total return: £18.70)
Half time draw: £10 at 2.66 = £16.60 profit (total return: £26.60)
Dutching both (total stake £10): you'd back Dynamo at £5.87 and the draw at £2.66 to make a profit of 99p, but there's less risk involved than if you backed Dynamo to win the first half and they were level or losing at half time - you'd automatically be £10 down.


Dutching the HT/FT scores that favour Dynamo or the draw would have to include Dynamo to be leading at half time but the game to finish in a draw, which is currently around 25/1. Having already mentioned that Krylya Sovetov haven't scored in the second half all season, this would mean the visitors scoring at least twice - which is something they haven't done since they won at Khimki last August. So that possibility could either be completely disregarded or form the basis of an insurance bet.


The scenario immediately above would look like this:


Dynamo to win both halves: £8 at 2.00 (or evens if you prefer) = £8 profit
Draw/Dynamo: £3.55 at 4.5 = £12.43 profit
Draw/draw: £2 (minimum stake on Betfair) at 8.00 = £14 profit


So if any one of those outcomes won (remember, it's a dutch) it would mean an automatic £2.45 profit for a £13.55 stake. Of course, if none of them came up you'd be looking at an automatic £13.55 loss.


I'm going to go with dutching Dynamo or the draw at half time. The profit is smaller, but the chances of winning are greater. And I'm not really interested in losing money if I don't see any reason to! The insurance bet here would be either the draw or Krylya Sovetov at halftime, which is available at 1.88 with Bwin.com.


Half time: Dynamo Moscow 0, Krylya Sovetov 0. Full time: Dynamo Moscow 1, Krylya Sovetov 1!


There's yet another game that I'm interested in later today, Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense in Brazilian Serie A...and I'll come back to that later if I have time!


Well, I've got some time before my dinner arrives, so the final tip of the day is Fluminense to win - game kicks off at 10:30pm GMT. I've got five potential games to look at tomorrow...so the next post might be a bit minimalist.

From Nalchik With Love?

I admit I had to look up where it was - about as far south as you can go in Russia before you reach Georgia - but Spartak Nalchik look strong favourites to beat Amkar Perm today (5.30pm GMT).

Spartak Nalchik are currently fourth in the Russian Premier and a win today over Amkar would mean that with half the season gone they will have equalled their entire number of wins from last season. There's every reason to think that they will do so: amazingly, this is yet another game where the hosts are unbeaten at half time and the visitors haven't had a half time lead. There's also a high correlation between the half time/full time results between these two, so I'm recommeding the following:

* Dutch Spartak Nalchik or draw at half time - insurance bet is Amkar or draw
* Spartak Nalchik to win the game - insurance bet is as above, but I wouldn't recommend staking too much.

Will be back later with the result - I'm going to the cinema with my wife so I won't be able to monitor the game live.

Helsingborg Go Top In Sweden

Helsingborg 3-1 BK Hacken: despite a surprise early goal from Mattias Ostberg, Helsingborg reclaimed top spot in the Allsvenskan earlier this evening and now have a five point lead going into this weekend's games. 


Two goals from Eric Sundin and a winner from Marcus Holgersson seventeen minutes from time meant that the hosts kept not only their unbeaten half time record but also their home undefeated streak intact: they're away at Brommapojkarna next Monday, two days after Malmo entertain GAIS.


Romantic Queen finished fourth. I think a spell of paper trading is called for ;-)

Insurance Part 100

Harbinger surprised a more than a few people on Saturday and once again the insurance paid off. I'm really intrigued about how things have been going lately, it's been fun in a weird kind of way, the most preposterous hot streak I think I've had for a long while. I've got a pretty good idea why it's happening but I'm going to wait until the end of the month before analysing the results.

Anyway, there's a system game on Monday evening: Helsingborg v BK Hacken in the Swedish Allsvenskan. Malmo won 1-0 on Saturday (thanks to an Agon Mehmeti goal after 41 minutes) which means a Helsingborg win would send them into first place. This next bit sounds really familiar: Helsingborg haven't been behind at half time in home games all season and haven't lost at home all season either. This scenario seems to be cropping up a lot at the moment. In which case, it's probably fair to assume that Hacken won't be ahead at half time and Helsingborg will win the game; the insurance bet would be a half time double chance (usually available at bwin.com) for the draw or Hacken.

Thanks to the data at the excellent h2hstats.com site, there is another good reason for choosing a Helsingborg win. Of the teams that are currently involved in their league seasons, Helsingborg have the joint best points per game average at home (shared with Corinthians in Brazil's Serie A, who won again on Sunday) and the third best points per game average in all games (behind Zenit St. Petersburg in Russia and Derry City in Ireland).

Given the ambiguous position I find myself in due to horse racing, rather than recommending a straight lay I'm going to back Romantic Queen in the 4:00 at Wolverhampton this afternoon with a view to laying her later if the price moves as I expect it to.

King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes

Not a lot between Workforce and Harbinger, although it's a shame that Dar-Re-Mi withdrew. The only runners that can be pretty much written off are Confront (Workforce's pacemaker and currently trading at 390 on Betfair) and Daryakana, although the latter is a genuine wildcard. I've laid Harbinger at Betfair (just in time for a change as the price is starting to drift) but have an insurance bet elsewhere just in case.

That's it until next week, just about to start watching Australia v South Africa in the Tri Nations.

The Easiest Way To Avoid Losing!

Don't strike any bets.

Buoyed by the 0-0 draw between Terek Groznyi and Amkar Perm on Sunday, I totally forgot to commit to Molde and Sandefjord - I managed to get 5:00pm mixed up with 7:00pm, which is pathetic! It goes without saying that the Molde/half time dutch would have worked.

Corinthians beat Atletico Mineiro 1-0 thanks to a late goal from Bruno Cesar; they still hold pole position in Serie A despite a 3-1 defeat at Atletico Goianiense earlier today. So all in all a mostly satisfactory Sunday - apart from the screw up with the Molde game.

I'm only going to recommend one game this weekend because it's my birthday on Saturday and I'm going to have a couple of days off.

The game is Malmo v AIK in the Swedish Allsvenskan on Saturday. A Malmo win can take them within two points of leaders Helsingborg, who lost earlier this evening to BK Hacken in Gothenburg; Malmo haven't lost at home this season, they haven't been behind at half time all season and haven't lost at home to AIK since October 1996. Defending champions AIK have had a terrible start to the season, having lost five of their last seven aways games without scoring in five them: however they've qualified for the third qualifying round of Champions League, they'll play Rosenborg next week.

Malmo or draw or laying an AIK lead at half time might be a good place to start, although the AIK lay is currently priced at 7.4; the current best price for Malmo to win the game is 13/20.

Vakuutus is Finnish for Insurance

Shocker in Finland: KuPS won at HJK Helsinki, Nigerian striker Dickson Nwakaeme scored both goals in a come from behind victory at the Finnair stadium. It was 1-1 at half time: I'd dutched HJK or draw at the half so I was happy with that. I had an insurance bet on draw/KuPS at half time so that paid off too. If Nwakaeme can score two on the road against HJK then he might be worth keeping an eye on in future games.

Valerenga ended up beating Kongsvinger 5-2 but the first half was action packed - two goals in the first four minutes and - to my immense relief - only a late own goal by former Everton, Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Charlton goalkeeper Thomas Myhre saved Valerenga's impressive half time record.

The Cardinals beat the Dodgers 2-0 and I managed to back another 'loser' horse yesterday. So that's four in a row now - I'll publish the full results at the end of the month but I'm not going to recommend laying any horses until my results have settled down.

Today's tips in chronological order are:

* Terek Groznyi v Amkar Perm (Russian League 3:45pm GMT): Terek or draw at half time as Terek haven't been behind after the first half and Amkar haven't been in front. I'm also going to be testing a trading strategy based on Under 2.5 goals.

* Molde v Sandefjord (Norwegian Eliteserien 5:00pm GMT): Molde or draw at half time for pretty much the same reason as the Terek game and Molde to win the game if they're winning at half time. Sandefjord have lost all eight of their away games in the league this season but have been level at half time in three of them, hence the caution.

* Corinthians v Atletico Mineiro (Brazilian Serie A 8:00pm GMT): Corinthians have won all their home league games this season, Atletico Mineiro have lost all their away games. Might be worth having a look at Corinthians winning both halves, Corinthians to win the game is what I'm going with.

I'm also looking at a couple of MLB games but if anything worth investigating comes up I'll update this post.

Sometimes You Need Insurance!

The World Cup Final went the way I thought it would - a low scoring game that featured the latest goal scored in the final, which also happened to be the first opening goal scored by a player with a surname that begins with a vowel. I actually dutched (forgive the pun) all scores under three goals and that worked out well, although without looking at the numbers 0-0 in normal time was the least profitable. I also won the sweepstake at my office with Spain, so I'm actually quite chuffed with that.

Last Saturday was a bit of a mixed bag - I got Ljungskile v Osters completely wrong (Osters won 2-1) but one of the advantages of the betting exchanges is that I was able to totally reverse position and at half time I backed an Osters win...so when Robin Iglicar of Ljungskile got a goal back with twenty five minutes left, I was left hoping that the home team wouldn't come back for a draw.

Haugesund drew 1-1 with Brann: Brann took the lead though and Haugesund equalised right on half time, which meant I closed the trade I proposed in the interval. Laying Molde at half time in their game at Aalesund proved to be the right decision but - remarkably - I also paid attention to my own advice and avoided getting involved with either goals or the final score. The game finished 0-0, so it would have been 'a large and very expensive trap' ;-)

I'm looking at another couple of Scandinavian games this afternoon: Valerenga to beat Kongsvinger in the Norwegian Eliteserien and HJK Helsinki to win their game against KuPS in the Finnish Veikkausliiga. Significantly, both Valerenga and HJK are unbeaten at home this season and neither have been behind at half time, so that's the direction I've gone in. There are a few games on Sunday that could be worth a look so I'm going to do just that in a moment: I'm probably also going to be backing the St. Louis Cardinals to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers later on, but before committing to that game I want to see how the football goes.

Lastly, I've had a tremendous run with my horse racing lays - the last three I've backed not to win have gone on to do exactly that. Good job I put insurance bets on them...

...And Then There Were Two

The World Cup Final on Sunday will be played between the Netherlands and Spain, which is what I was expecting...although I decided not to invest in that opportunity as I've been ignoring one of my golden rules, which is not to get involved in individual cup games. Tournaments - and tournaments from the quarter finals onwards in particular - are another matter. I'll have an official opinion before the game takes place ;-)

There are a couple of games in Scandinavia on Saturday that might be worth a look including two potentially profitable trading opportunities. In the Superettan (the second tier of Swedish football) Ljungskile take on Osters on Saturday afternoon. Ljungskile haven't lost at home this season and have only conceded two goals in seven games at home - and both of those were in the second half. Newly promoted Osters are struggling to find their feet: they've lost their last three games without scoring a goal. I'm going to take the Ljungskile win and would tentatively recommend under 2.5 goals, based on the excellent defensive record of the home side and Osters' lack of firepower.

The trading opportunities are games in neighbouring Norway.

410 miles east of Ljungskile, Haugesund play SK Brann in the Norwegian Tippeligaen. Haugesund were promoted to the top level of Norwegian football last season after a decade outside it and have made a really impressive start to the season at home. In fact they haven't lost at home since 28th June 2009 - a seventeen game unbeaten run in the league - which is a good indication of how good they are; at home they've continued the form that won them promotion. Opponents Brann are not doing so well - one win in seven away games (at relegation threatened Kongsvinger last Sunday) but have a good historical record against Haugesund, even though they last travelled to western Norway in July 2000!

I definitely think there's some value in backing Haugesund pre-match. The odds compilers - rightly - have factored in Haugesund's long absence from the top division into their prices so what we're looking at now is how likely it is that Haugesund might take the lead. The good news is that they tend to score early - an average of 14 minutes but with 60% of their goals coming in the first five minutes - and so the sequence of events we really want is that we back Haugesund before kick off, hope they score early and then close the trade. Or if you're me, think that the game is going to be walk in the park for the team that scores first and then get annoyed when the underdogs equalize ;-)

The other game is less clear despite being an automatic as far as my system is concerned. There's no doubt that Aalesund are a difficult team to beat at their Color Line Stadium and their opponents this weekend (Molde) have lost nine of their last 13 away league games. My numbers suggest that there's about a 75% chance of Molde not winning, but Aalesund have a poor record when Molde come to town so it's worth trying to think outside the box. A potential angle is the half time score - Aalesund haven't trailed at home after the first half this season and Molde haven't won away yet. So it might be worth looking at laying Molde at half time - currently 4.4 on Betfair, but very underexposed at the moment.

The other markets that might be worth looking at in this game is Over 2.5 goals (53% of all Tippeligaen games so far this season have been over 2.5) and laying 0-0. In Aalesund's last 20 league homes and Molde's last 20 league aways there have been no 0-0 draws - which could either be an opportunity or a very large and expensive trap - and very few clean sheets.

Right, I'm off to get stuck into some of those markets and I'll probably be back at some point on Saturday. I've also been working on my predictions for the major European leagues and the NFL recently and I'll definitely get those posted before the end of the month.

Update, Friday afternoon: Sporting Index' goal expectation for Aalesund v Molde is 3.2 and Haugesund are better than even favourites to score first.

World Cup Final Stages

Whoever wins the Germany v Argentina quarter final this afternoon has a really good chance of winning the lot.  

In the 16 World Cup finals (West) Germany have played in, they've been knocked out by the eventual winners five times, beaten finalists four times and beaten semi finalists three times. They've also won it three times. England been knocked out by either the eventual winners or beaten semi finalists in almost 75% of their World Cup campaigns, another stat that favours Germany  If Argentina win, they have a fair chance of winning the lot - although if Germany win I think they'd be a better bet as Argentina have only really been a major international football power since their 1978 win.  Also worth considering: knocking out Brazil doesn't automatically mean that Holland will win the World Cup. Seven of the eleven teams that have knocked Brazil out of previous tournaments have either been beaten in the semis or lost the final, but interestingly two of the remaining four went on to win the World Cup for the first time (Argentina in 1978 and France in 1998 - and they were both hosts!).  I can see Holland getting to the final, but if they win or not depends on who they play. Repeat finals are pretty rare (there's only been one - Brazil v Italy in 1970 and 1994), but the Dutch lost to Argentina in 1978 and West Germany in 1974.  I know I haven't mentioned Spain but there's a reason for that ;-)  I think I might have been the only person supporting Uruguay yesterday, I had two lays on Betfair - elimination at every stage OTHER than the quarter finals and Group A not to win the World Cup. So that was pretty intense as you can imagine. Don't think Uruguay are going to win the whole thing though...but you never know. Financially the best final for me would be either Germany or Argentina beating Uruguay, but as the Stones sang all those years ago, 'You Can't Always Get What You Want'.