International friendlies plus family and work commitments meant that last week was a bit of a holiday and despite the usual over excitement about the Premiership there's not really that much on offer on Saturday.
However, for early(ish) risers the J-League presents an opportunity but due to time constraints I'm just going to show what I'm going to do rather than present the logic behind it. Minimum stakes as usual for illustrative purposes.
Shimizu S-Pulse v Yokohama F-Marinos
Half time dutch on Betfair: back Shimizu £2.02 @ 2.66, the draw £2.36 @ 2.28 = £1 profit if either Shimizu are winning or there's a draw at half time.
Insurance bet: Draw or Yokohama to cover the Betfair liability of £4.38
Despite going behind to a very early goal, Shimizu equalised with ten minutes left in the first half. £3.18 profit.
Full time: back Shimizu on Betfair £2.00 @ 2.02 = £2.04 if Shimizu win.
Insurance bet: Draw or Yokohama to cover Betfair liability of £2 if Shimizu don't win.
Yokohama went on to win the game with a goal from former Celtic player Shunsuke Nakamura - so no overall gain.
There's a decent prospect in the Russian Premiership later on and I'll update this post when I've done some data mining.
Right, over to Russia for the game between Zenit St. Petersburg and Dinamo Moscow. Zenit lead the Russian Premier by seven points; Dynamo are in the bottom half of the table but as the dreadful old cliche goes 'are probably too good to go down'. The question is whether Dinamo are good enough to beat Zenit.
The first problem for Dinamo is that Zenit have lost once at home in the last 20 league games and are undefeated at the Petrovsky Stadium this season. Dinamo's away record isn't the worst I've seen recently but they haven't won away for seven games; the recent head to head record between the two in St. Petersburg isn't encouraging for Dinamo either - no wins in the last six. My first thought was to lay Dinamo outright but as the goal expectancy for this game is low and there's a really good chance of a draw at half time, I'm going to go down that route.
Half time dutch (Zenit/draw): 60p if successful, insurance is draw/Dinamo Moscow at bwin.
Full time: Zenit £1.22, insurance is draw/Dinamo Moscow...more later!
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Showing posts with label J-League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label J-League. Show all posts
Saturday, 14 August 2010
Saturday, 31 July 2010
Spartak Nalchik Win Puts Pressure On Rubin Kazan
Important win for Spartak Nalchik: two goals in two minutes inside the first quarter of an hour set up a 2-1 win over Amkar Perm. Spartak Nalchik are now only a point behind second place Rubin Kazan, who travel to leaders Zenit for the game of the day in Russia.
I'll be returning to Russia later on, but as there's an early game in the J-League I've got my eye on I'll keep updating this post throughout the day.
Kashima Antlers take on Vissel Kobe (11:00am GMT, live streaming available at bet365 and Betfair) and the Antlers look like a decent prospect. Kashima have won the last three editions of the J-League, lead the 2010 version by a point from Shimizu S-Pulse and are currently on a ten game undefeated home streak in the league. Vissel Kobe's recent form has improved slightly but they still only have one away win in their last thirteen away games and they are currently only three points outside the relegation zone. Today's interesting fact: 'Vissel' is supposed to be a combination of the words 'victory' and 'vessel'...not sure in which universe that works, but more of the same here: http://www.engrish.com/
I'm going to leave the half time and goals markets alone as the data is not as clear cut as some of the other games I've analysed recently, all I would say about the goals market is that you can't have exactly 2.5 goals in a football match...Final: Kashima Antlers 3, Vissel Kobe 0
Next game is in Russia (18:00GMT): mid-table Dynamo Moscow against Krylya Sovetov, who are bottom. This is one of those games that ought to come with a bit of a health warning: based on this season's form in the Russian Premier league, Dynamo ought to win this easily. But look a bit further back and although it looks more likely that Krylya Sovetov won't win, it becomes less clear that a Dynamo win is as likely as it might appear.
The key stat in this game is that Krylya Sovetov have failed to score in half of their last twenty away league games in the Russian Premiership and have only scored one goal away from home this season - they took an early lead in a game they eventually lost 4-1. They have not scored at all in the second half of their away games. Combine that with Dynamo keeping clean sheets in half of their home league games this season and suddenly there are some possibilities:
* Given their first half record this season, Dynamo might not win the first half, but probably won't be behind either.
* Krylya probably won't win this game and there's a good chance they won't score either, but laying them outright could be expensive.
Dutching Dynamo Moscow and draw at half time might be worth looking at, but dutching the HT/FT scores that favour Dynamo and the draw could also work. Using £10 stakes and the current market prices, these options would look something like this:
Dynamo winning at half time: £10 at 1.87 = £8.70 profit (total return: £18.70)
Half time draw: £10 at 2.66 = £16.60 profit (total return: £26.60)
Dutching both (total stake £10): you'd back Dynamo at £5.87 and the draw at £2.66 to make a profit of 99p, but there's less risk involved than if you backed Dynamo to win the first half and they were level or losing at half time - you'd automatically be £10 down.
Dutching the HT/FT scores that favour Dynamo or the draw would have to include Dynamo to be leading at half time but the game to finish in a draw, which is currently around 25/1. Having already mentioned that Krylya Sovetov haven't scored in the second half all season, this would mean the visitors scoring at least twice - which is something they haven't done since they won at Khimki last August. So that possibility could either be completely disregarded or form the basis of an insurance bet.
The scenario immediately above would look like this:
Dynamo to win both halves: £8 at 2.00 (or evens if you prefer) = £8 profit
Draw/Dynamo: £3.55 at 4.5 = £12.43 profit
Draw/draw: £2 (minimum stake on Betfair) at 8.00 = £14 profit
So if any one of those outcomes won (remember, it's a dutch) it would mean an automatic £2.45 profit for a £13.55 stake. Of course, if none of them came up you'd be looking at an automatic £13.55 loss.
I'm going to go with dutching Dynamo or the draw at half time. The profit is smaller, but the chances of winning are greater. And I'm not really interested in losing money if I don't see any reason to! The insurance bet here would be either the draw or Krylya Sovetov at halftime, which is available at 1.88 with Bwin.com.
Half time: Dynamo Moscow 0, Krylya Sovetov 0. Full time: Dynamo Moscow 1, Krylya Sovetov 1!
There's yet another game that I'm interested in later today, Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense in Brazilian Serie A...and I'll come back to that later if I have time!
Well, I've got some time before my dinner arrives, so the final tip of the day is Fluminense to win - game kicks off at 10:30pm GMT. I've got five potential games to look at tomorrow...so the next post might be a bit minimalist.
I'll be returning to Russia later on, but as there's an early game in the J-League I've got my eye on I'll keep updating this post throughout the day.
Kashima Antlers take on Vissel Kobe (11:00am GMT, live streaming available at bet365 and Betfair) and the Antlers look like a decent prospect. Kashima have won the last three editions of the J-League, lead the 2010 version by a point from Shimizu S-Pulse and are currently on a ten game undefeated home streak in the league. Vissel Kobe's recent form has improved slightly but they still only have one away win in their last thirteen away games and they are currently only three points outside the relegation zone. Today's interesting fact: 'Vissel' is supposed to be a combination of the words 'victory' and 'vessel'...not sure in which universe that works, but more of the same here: http://www.engrish.com/
I'm going to leave the half time and goals markets alone as the data is not as clear cut as some of the other games I've analysed recently, all I would say about the goals market is that you can't have exactly 2.5 goals in a football match...Final: Kashima Antlers 3, Vissel Kobe 0
Next game is in Russia (18:00GMT): mid-table Dynamo Moscow against Krylya Sovetov, who are bottom. This is one of those games that ought to come with a bit of a health warning: based on this season's form in the Russian Premier league, Dynamo ought to win this easily. But look a bit further back and although it looks more likely that Krylya Sovetov won't win, it becomes less clear that a Dynamo win is as likely as it might appear.
The key stat in this game is that Krylya Sovetov have failed to score in half of their last twenty away league games in the Russian Premiership and have only scored one goal away from home this season - they took an early lead in a game they eventually lost 4-1. They have not scored at all in the second half of their away games. Combine that with Dynamo keeping clean sheets in half of their home league games this season and suddenly there are some possibilities:
* Given their first half record this season, Dynamo might not win the first half, but probably won't be behind either.
* Krylya probably won't win this game and there's a good chance they won't score either, but laying them outright could be expensive.
Dutching Dynamo Moscow and draw at half time might be worth looking at, but dutching the HT/FT scores that favour Dynamo and the draw could also work. Using £10 stakes and the current market prices, these options would look something like this:
Dynamo winning at half time: £10 at 1.87 = £8.70 profit (total return: £18.70)
Half time draw: £10 at 2.66 = £16.60 profit (total return: £26.60)
Dutching both (total stake £10): you'd back Dynamo at £5.87 and the draw at £2.66 to make a profit of 99p, but there's less risk involved than if you backed Dynamo to win the first half and they were level or losing at half time - you'd automatically be £10 down.
Dutching the HT/FT scores that favour Dynamo or the draw would have to include Dynamo to be leading at half time but the game to finish in a draw, which is currently around 25/1. Having already mentioned that Krylya Sovetov haven't scored in the second half all season, this would mean the visitors scoring at least twice - which is something they haven't done since they won at Khimki last August. So that possibility could either be completely disregarded or form the basis of an insurance bet.
The scenario immediately above would look like this:
Dynamo to win both halves: £8 at 2.00 (or evens if you prefer) = £8 profit
Draw/Dynamo: £3.55 at 4.5 = £12.43 profit
Draw/draw: £2 (minimum stake on Betfair) at 8.00 = £14 profit
So if any one of those outcomes won (remember, it's a dutch) it would mean an automatic £2.45 profit for a £13.55 stake. Of course, if none of them came up you'd be looking at an automatic £13.55 loss.
I'm going to go with dutching Dynamo or the draw at half time. The profit is smaller, but the chances of winning are greater. And I'm not really interested in losing money if I don't see any reason to! The insurance bet here would be either the draw or Krylya Sovetov at halftime, which is available at 1.88 with Bwin.com.
Half time: Dynamo Moscow 0, Krylya Sovetov 0. Full time: Dynamo Moscow 1, Krylya Sovetov 1!
There's yet another game that I'm interested in later today, Fluminense v Atletico Paranaense in Brazilian Serie A...and I'll come back to that later if I have time!
Well, I've got some time before my dinner arrives, so the final tip of the day is Fluminense to win - game kicks off at 10:30pm GMT. I've got five potential games to look at tomorrow...so the next post might be a bit minimalist.
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