Time is of the essence as I've got a busy day on Saturday...I've decided to divide this post into two sections as the Norwegian tips should be backed with smaller stakes as it's the beginning of their season.
Update: this should be interesting. I've been visiting my niece and her family and didn't get any of the bets on. Let's see what happens.
Hungary
4:30pm
Ujpest v MTK
Ujpest one home defeat this season, MTK one away win. The hosts have won the last two league meetings but MTK have won five of the last ten at the Ferenc Szusza stadium - Ujpest draw no bet.
Result: Ujpest 2, MTK 1
Greece
These are the last tips for Hellenic League this season as this is Week 27 - if Olympiakos win they're champions and apart from the relegation spots everything else looks done and dusted. I've deliberately ignored teams in the relegation zone this week.
5:00pm
Iraklis v Panionios
Under 3.5 goals
Result: 1-1
OLYMPIAKOS v AEK
Far be it from me to suggest any impropriety, but it does look as if the champions elect lost at PAOK last weekend so they could win the title in front of their own fans. AEK are no mugs, having won four of their last five road trips so I'm going to suggest the usual dutch here - because Olympiakos haven't drawn (or lost!) so far this season.
Result: Olympiakos 6, AEK 0
Panathinaikos v Kerkyra
It would take a strange set of results over the last four games for Panathinaikos to win the title and they need to win this game and hope that Olympiakos lose at home to AEK. I don't think that's going to happen - oppose Kerkyra.
Result: Panathinaikos 2, Kerkyra 1
Norway
Keep the stakes realistic as this is just the first week.
5:00pm
Odd Grenland v Start
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Odd Grenland 0, Start 2
Tromso v Haugesund
Oppose Haugesund
Result: Tromso 2, Haugesund 0
7:00pm
Brann v Rosenborg
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Brann 2, Rosenborg 1
LOL, bl**dy typcial - they all came in on the day I didn't put any of them on!
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greece. Show all posts
Saturday, 19 March 2011
Sunday, 13 March 2011
Tips For Sunday 13th March
The 'Rough & Ready' system threw up the following game from the nPower Championship, but I've put a bit more analytical effort this morning.
3:00pm
Cardiff v Barnsley
The incentive for the win is leapfrogging their rivals into second place, but Cardiff's win price doesn't represent any value and there doesn't seem to be a team that's capable of challenging QPR at the top - despite multiple opportunities that have been given to the chasing pack.
The safest bet is Barnsley not to keep a clean sheet/Cardiff to score, but backing over 1.5 goals is what I'm going to go with.
Greece
3:15pm
AEK v Kavala
AEK weren't one of my favourite teams a few weeks ago when they screwed up against Aris and Panionios, but they are one of the better teams at home in Greece - having said that, Kavala have improved away from home this season and as AEK's price doesn't really represent value I'm going to dutch AEK/draw. Key stat may be that AEK have won the last six home league games against Kavala.
Hungary
4:30pm
Vasas v Ujpest
Having lost four of the last five league games at home to Ujpest, this looks as if it might be a decent chance for three points for the hosts. However, over 1.5 goals and both teams to score look more likely so I'm going with them.
3:00pm
Cardiff v Barnsley
The incentive for the win is leapfrogging their rivals into second place, but Cardiff's win price doesn't represent any value and there doesn't seem to be a team that's capable of challenging QPR at the top - despite multiple opportunities that have been given to the chasing pack.
The safest bet is Barnsley not to keep a clean sheet/Cardiff to score, but backing over 1.5 goals is what I'm going to go with.
Greece
3:15pm
AEK v Kavala
AEK weren't one of my favourite teams a few weeks ago when they screwed up against Aris and Panionios, but they are one of the better teams at home in Greece - having said that, Kavala have improved away from home this season and as AEK's price doesn't really represent value I'm going to dutch AEK/draw. Key stat may be that AEK have won the last six home league games against Kavala.
Hungary
4:30pm
Vasas v Ujpest
Having lost four of the last five league games at home to Ujpest, this looks as if it might be a decent chance for three points for the hosts. However, over 1.5 goals and both teams to score look more likely so I'm going with them.
Friday, 11 March 2011
Free Tips For Friday and Saturday
FRIDAY
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.
Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.
4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.
Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.
Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:
Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker
Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.
Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.
4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.
Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.
Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:
Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker
Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.
Sunday, 6 March 2011
Sunday 6th March
Got caught out on Saturday because the kick off times weren't 'as advertised', the only one that I missed was Gyori v Vasas - which I would have lost. Still, even that did not spoil what turned out to be an excellent day's tipping.
Greece
1:00pm
Kavala v Asteras
Back under 3.5 goals, although this is a similar sort of situation to the game between Aris and Iraklis on Saturday evening.
Olympiakos Piraeus v Ergotelis
Lay 0-0 as long as the price isn't too ridiculous, which it is for the Olympiakos win.
Hungary - watching brief only
4:30pm
Honved v Ferencvaros
Lay 0-0, but at time of writing this market was totally unexposed and as I had a late night last night and I'm not feeling particularly brave this morning (!) I'm leaving that alone. However, it looks as if there could be goals in this game, probably somewhere over 1.5 and under 3.5 but that's about as specific as I'm going to get today.
Oh and I almost forgot...
Liverpool v Man United
Avoid the outrights markets, although there might be a case to be made for the draw simply because there hasn't been one for a while and United (along with Fulham) are this season's away draw specialists in the Premier League. Can't see this being packed with goals either...and there hasn't been a 1-1 at Anfield since February 1986.
Greece
1:00pm
Kavala v Asteras
Back under 3.5 goals, although this is a similar sort of situation to the game between Aris and Iraklis on Saturday evening.
Olympiakos Piraeus v Ergotelis
Lay 0-0 as long as the price isn't too ridiculous, which it is for the Olympiakos win.
Hungary - watching brief only
4:30pm
Honved v Ferencvaros
Lay 0-0, but at time of writing this market was totally unexposed and as I had a late night last night and I'm not feeling particularly brave this morning (!) I'm leaving that alone. However, it looks as if there could be goals in this game, probably somewhere over 1.5 and under 3.5 but that's about as specific as I'm going to get today.
Oh and I almost forgot...
Liverpool v Man United
Avoid the outrights markets, although there might be a case to be made for the draw simply because there hasn't been one for a while and United (along with Fulham) are this season's away draw specialists in the Premier League. Can't see this being packed with goals either...and there hasn't been a 1-1 at Anfield since February 1986.
Friday, 4 March 2011
Saturday 5th March
Another double on Friday afternoon...which of these beauties is going to let the side down?
All times GMT, teams in bold represent possible home wins, BOLD CAPS means possible home banker.
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Istra
Osijek's win price looks about right, but discount the draw at your peril - Istra won their last away game in the Autumn phase and have a tendancy to draw the next road trip; Osijek are this season's draw specialists. Osijek/draw looks like a good combo to me.
Greece
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Panserraikos
Back under 3.5 goals - all credit to the hosts, who won the Football League (2nd tier) last season and are currently in the Champions League playoff places: a tough home defence goes a long way in Greece if you don't score that many goals.
Croatia
4:00pm
Split v Cibalia
Back under 3.5 goals - you'd have to back this as the exchanges won't go near this type of market in Croatia. The visitors drew 0-0 at home on Tuesday afternoon.
Rijeka v Karlovac
Back under 3.5 goals
Hungary
4:30pm
Videoton/Fehervar v MTK
Lay 0-0 (check the market - nothing on it right now), back under 3.5 goals
GYORI v Vasas Budapest
If it was possible to lay 0-0 I would, but I'd recommend not getting involved with goal markets as there could be a few here as the visitor's away form is horrible - they kept one clean sheet in the Autumn phase and haven't won away this season. Dutching Gyori/draw also seems like a good idea.
Greece
5:30pm
Aris v Iraklis
Either back under 2.5 goals or back under 3.5 goals, although the under 3.5 goals market is better if you fancy trading it.
Additionally...using an admittedly very rough and ready way of working out prices, it might be worth looking at backing the following teams in the nPower Championship on Saturday afternoon:
Leeds, Norwich, Portsmouth, QPR and Reading.
All times GMT, teams in bold represent possible home wins, BOLD CAPS means possible home banker.
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Istra
Osijek's win price looks about right, but discount the draw at your peril - Istra won their last away game in the Autumn phase and have a tendancy to draw the next road trip; Osijek are this season's draw specialists. Osijek/draw looks like a good combo to me.
Greece
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Panserraikos
Back under 3.5 goals - all credit to the hosts, who won the Football League (2nd tier) last season and are currently in the Champions League playoff places: a tough home defence goes a long way in Greece if you don't score that many goals.
Croatia
4:00pm
Split v Cibalia
Back under 3.5 goals - you'd have to back this as the exchanges won't go near this type of market in Croatia. The visitors drew 0-0 at home on Tuesday afternoon.
Rijeka v Karlovac
Back under 3.5 goals
Hungary
4:30pm
Videoton/Fehervar v MTK
Lay 0-0 (check the market - nothing on it right now), back under 3.5 goals
GYORI v Vasas Budapest
If it was possible to lay 0-0 I would, but I'd recommend not getting involved with goal markets as there could be a few here as the visitor's away form is horrible - they kept one clean sheet in the Autumn phase and haven't won away this season. Dutching Gyori/draw also seems like a good idea.
Greece
5:30pm
Aris v Iraklis
Either back under 2.5 goals or back under 3.5 goals, although the under 3.5 goals market is better if you fancy trading it.
Additionally...using an admittedly very rough and ready way of working out prices, it might be worth looking at backing the following teams in the nPower Championship on Saturday afternoon:
Leeds, Norwich, Portsmouth, QPR and Reading.
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Weekend Tips
Only catch up games in Belgium this week and we welcome back Croatia and Hungary from their winter breaks, although there's only one game worth looking at in Croatia. I looked at all of them and either Hajduk Split or Dinamo Zagreb are too short to be worth bothering with or there are no clear trends: sometimes that's the way it is.
As usual, teams in bold are possible wins, teams in BOLD CAPS are possible home bankers.
Friday
Hungary
6:00pm
FERENCVAROS v Kecskemeti
One of the weird aspects of this game is how unlikely a draw might be - Ferencvaros didn't draw at home during the first phase (12 since last home draw), Kecskemeti didn't draw away (18 since last away draw). The hosts are on a four game home winning streak in the league so we'll go with them; they need a morale boost at the moment due to experiencing financial difficulties again and I can tell you from personal experience that when the Florian Albert Stadium is full, it's an incredibly intimidating place for the opposition.
8:15pm
Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica
Academica are currently on a three game losing streak on the road while Vitoria are one of the more improved home teams this season. If the visitors lose it again like they did last Saturday then laying them could pay out. Trying to be professional here but Academica really annoyed me last weekend and I hope they lose ;-)
Saturday
Hungary
3pm
ZALAEGERSZEGI v Szombathely
The current top three won all six games against the current bottom three in the opening stage and although the current price may not look like it, it represents value.
Greece
3:15pm
Iraklis v Xanthi
This game should have less than 2.5 goals in it but the price is too low and in actual fact laying Xanthi is a better idea as Iraklis have only lost three times in the last 20 home games in the league. Last year was the first time Xanthi had won at Iraklis for over 15 years.
Croatia
4:00pm
Istra v Hrvatski
Hrvatski are on their way back to 2.HNL but Istra can still save themselves from relegation, even though the bottom four are going down this season. Oppose Hrvatski as a starting point as I'm not 100% sure that Istra have the goals to win this.
Portugal
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Vitoria Setubal
Straight Dutch (Pacos win/draw), although the draw might stand a better chance of paying out. Vitoria unlikely to keep a clean sheet and a scoring less than one goal away from home this season.
Portugal
8:15pm
Olhanense v Porto
Under 3.5 goals - arguably the most interesting game in Portugal this weekend as unbeaten Olhanense (unbeaten at home this season) entertain the runaway leaders. One of the reasons the hosts may be unbeaten is that this is only the second home game they've played against the big three (2-2 draw with Sporting Lisbon last time out) and although Olhanense's defence will be tested by Porto, this still looks like a low scoring game
Sunday
Greece
3:15pm
PAOK* v Kavala
Going back to 1994, PAOK have won all six games without scoring a goal; a home win is still possible, but I'd be a bit hesitant about backing a PAOK clean sheet as they've only kept two at home this season; Kavala have scored in eight of their eleven away games this season.
*Not a home banker, these are just the initials.
Hungary
3:30pm
Vasas Budapest v Fehervar
Over 2.5 goals - always worth remembering that NB1 is a very goal friendly league, despite it being the lowest ranked league I'm familiar with. Yes, lower than the Veikkausliiga.
Portugal
6:00pm
BEIRA MAR v Portimonense
Lay Portimonense - haven't won away all season, haven't won at Beira Mar in the last four visits. Be cautious if backing the hosts though as Portimonense are making everyone look better because they're so bad.
Greece
7:00pm
Panionios v Olympiakos
Originally came up as a low goals recommendation, but this is about as nailed on as an away win can get, especially as Olympiakos tend to take their shooting boots to what's basically a home game for them.
As usual, teams in bold are possible wins, teams in BOLD CAPS are possible home bankers.
Friday
Hungary
6:00pm
FERENCVAROS v Kecskemeti
One of the weird aspects of this game is how unlikely a draw might be - Ferencvaros didn't draw at home during the first phase (12 since last home draw), Kecskemeti didn't draw away (18 since last away draw). The hosts are on a four game home winning streak in the league so we'll go with them; they need a morale boost at the moment due to experiencing financial difficulties again and I can tell you from personal experience that when the Florian Albert Stadium is full, it's an incredibly intimidating place for the opposition.
8:15pm
Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica
Academica are currently on a three game losing streak on the road while Vitoria are one of the more improved home teams this season. If the visitors lose it again like they did last Saturday then laying them could pay out. Trying to be professional here but Academica really annoyed me last weekend and I hope they lose ;-)
Saturday
Hungary
3pm
ZALAEGERSZEGI v Szombathely
The current top three won all six games against the current bottom three in the opening stage and although the current price may not look like it, it represents value.
Greece
3:15pm
Iraklis v Xanthi
This game should have less than 2.5 goals in it but the price is too low and in actual fact laying Xanthi is a better idea as Iraklis have only lost three times in the last 20 home games in the league. Last year was the first time Xanthi had won at Iraklis for over 15 years.
Croatia
4:00pm
Istra v Hrvatski
Hrvatski are on their way back to 2.HNL but Istra can still save themselves from relegation, even though the bottom four are going down this season. Oppose Hrvatski as a starting point as I'm not 100% sure that Istra have the goals to win this.
Portugal
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Vitoria Setubal
Straight Dutch (Pacos win/draw), although the draw might stand a better chance of paying out. Vitoria unlikely to keep a clean sheet and a scoring less than one goal away from home this season.
Portugal
8:15pm
Olhanense v Porto
Under 3.5 goals - arguably the most interesting game in Portugal this weekend as unbeaten Olhanense (unbeaten at home this season) entertain the runaway leaders. One of the reasons the hosts may be unbeaten is that this is only the second home game they've played against the big three (2-2 draw with Sporting Lisbon last time out) and although Olhanense's defence will be tested by Porto, this still looks like a low scoring game
Sunday
Greece
3:15pm
PAOK* v Kavala
Going back to 1994, PAOK have won all six games without scoring a goal; a home win is still possible, but I'd be a bit hesitant about backing a PAOK clean sheet as they've only kept two at home this season; Kavala have scored in eight of their eleven away games this season.
*Not a home banker, these are just the initials.
Hungary
3:30pm
Vasas Budapest v Fehervar
Over 2.5 goals - always worth remembering that NB1 is a very goal friendly league, despite it being the lowest ranked league I'm familiar with. Yes, lower than the Veikkausliiga.
Portugal
6:00pm
BEIRA MAR v Portimonense
Lay Portimonense - haven't won away all season, haven't won at Beira Mar in the last four visits. Be cautious if backing the hosts though as Portimonense are making everyone look better because they're so bad.
Greece
7:00pm
Panionios v Olympiakos
Originally came up as a low goals recommendation, but this is about as nailed on as an away win can get, especially as Olympiakos tend to take their shooting boots to what's basically a home game for them.
Sunday, 20 February 2011
Bang Bang Bang
That's the sound of my head bouncing off the wall - what a night.
Academica 0, Rio Ave 1
Two Academica players sent off plus a winning penalty - all of which happened in injury time.
AEK 1, Panionios 1
Konstantinos Mitroglou equalised for Panionios with about a minute left. AEK are now officially on my Avoid list.
Sporting Braga 1, Pacos de Ferreira 2
PdF took a two goal lead after 20 minutes, Braga got one back and couldn't force an equaliser after PdF had a man sent off with about a quarter of an hour left.
I'll tell you what, if someone had said 'write a worst case scenario' this morning it would have looked a lot like that.
Academica 0, Rio Ave 1
Two Academica players sent off plus a winning penalty - all of which happened in injury time.
AEK 1, Panionios 1
Konstantinos Mitroglou equalised for Panionios with about a minute left. AEK are now officially on my Avoid list.
Sporting Braga 1, Pacos de Ferreira 2
PdF took a two goal lead after 20 minutes, Braga got one back and couldn't force an equaliser after PdF had a man sent off with about a quarter of an hour left.
I'll tell you what, if someone had said 'write a worst case scenario' this morning it would have looked a lot like that.
Sunday's Free Tips
Sunday
Portugal
4:00pm
Academica v Rio Ave
Oppose Rio Ave - they're having problems scoring away from home this season and although Academica aren't exactly the best team in Portugal in 2010/11 they probably won't lose this game. Backing the draw might pay out.
Belgium
5:00pm - Watching Brief Only
GENT v Standard Liege
Careful here - barring any slip ups Gent should qualify for the Champions League qualification group, but Standard have to start making the most of their remaining opportunities to avoid finishing in the Europa League group. They're currently one point behind Mechelen, who lost to Genk on Saturday night and they need to avoid defeat in this game. Gent draw no bet might be the best play.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Panionios
Looks pretty nailed on to me, but there's no such thing as a dead cert. I think it's probably worth backing AEK without worrying about the draw.
Xanthi v Larissa
Xanthi have gone backwards, but they've not fallen away as badly as Larissa. Laying Larissa is the play.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Pacos de Ferreira
It was probably too much to expect that Braga would be able to maintain last season's form when faced with the distraction of the Champions League. They've only lost twice at the AXA Stadium this season: to Porto (no surprise) and to newly promoted Beira Mar (surprise). Pacos haven't done too badly away from home this season but have only won one of their last nine visits to Braga: Braga win.
I won't be paying attention to the big game in Portugal on Monday night, but I might have a nibble at Benfica.
Portugal
4:00pm
Academica v Rio Ave
Oppose Rio Ave - they're having problems scoring away from home this season and although Academica aren't exactly the best team in Portugal in 2010/11 they probably won't lose this game. Backing the draw might pay out.
Belgium
5:00pm - Watching Brief Only
GENT v Standard Liege
Careful here - barring any slip ups Gent should qualify for the Champions League qualification group, but Standard have to start making the most of their remaining opportunities to avoid finishing in the Europa League group. They're currently one point behind Mechelen, who lost to Genk on Saturday night and they need to avoid defeat in this game. Gent draw no bet might be the best play.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Panionios
Looks pretty nailed on to me, but there's no such thing as a dead cert. I think it's probably worth backing AEK without worrying about the draw.
Xanthi v Larissa
Xanthi have gone backwards, but they've not fallen away as badly as Larissa. Laying Larissa is the play.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Pacos de Ferreira
It was probably too much to expect that Braga would be able to maintain last season's form when faced with the distraction of the Champions League. They've only lost twice at the AXA Stadium this season: to Porto (no surprise) and to newly promoted Beira Mar (surprise). Pacos haven't done too badly away from home this season but have only won one of their last nine visits to Braga: Braga win.
I won't be paying attention to the big game in Portugal on Monday night, but I might have a nibble at Benfica.
Saturday, 19 February 2011
Tips Will Be Up On Sunday
Apologies, tomorrow's tips will be up bright and early on Sunday morning - nice work today (even if I say so myself), all three of yesterday's games were settled by goals in the last ten minutes or in injury time...the Olympiakos/Panathinaikos game sounded very dramatic.
Friday, 18 February 2011
Free Tips For Saturday's Games
Belgium comes with a warning this week: the Jupiler League is now four games away from the end of the first phase and although the top three are more or less assured of getting into the Champions League playoff group, there's a bit of a logjam after that, so wherever possible I'll point that out in the individual games.
Usual format applies: probable home wins in bold, possible home banker in bold caps.
Saturday
Greece
5:30pm
Olympiakos v Panathinaikos
I was actually quite surprised by this when I broke this game down - Panathinaikos have only won twice in the last 15 league meetings at the Karaiskakis Stadium. Don't be too taken in by the price though as there's a decent chance of this ending in a draw: laying Panathinaikos might work out nicely.
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Lokeren
Here we go...this could be trouble. On the face of it, Club should win this easily but Lokeren are only two points behind them and are also competing for a Champions League group play off place. The visitors also have Standard Liege and Cercle Brugge in the rear view mirror and it's also worth chucking in the fact that they've drawn the most away games in the Jupiler League this season. Opposing Lokeren could be the way forward.
ZULTE WAREGEM v Lierse
Despite having gone seriously backwards this season, ZW should be fine for the Europa League playoff group, but Lierse need a win to avoid automatic relegation and actually have a decent record at Zulte. The hosts don't need a win as much as the visitors do, but six consecutive away defeats indicate how bad Lierse are - oppose them at the very least.
Sunday's tips will be posted on Saturday morning.
Usual format applies: probable home wins in bold, possible home banker in bold caps.
Saturday
Greece
5:30pm
Olympiakos v Panathinaikos
I was actually quite surprised by this when I broke this game down - Panathinaikos have only won twice in the last 15 league meetings at the Karaiskakis Stadium. Don't be too taken in by the price though as there's a decent chance of this ending in a draw: laying Panathinaikos might work out nicely.
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Lokeren
Here we go...this could be trouble. On the face of it, Club should win this easily but Lokeren are only two points behind them and are also competing for a Champions League group play off place. The visitors also have Standard Liege and Cercle Brugge in the rear view mirror and it's also worth chucking in the fact that they've drawn the most away games in the Jupiler League this season. Opposing Lokeren could be the way forward.
ZULTE WAREGEM v Lierse
Despite having gone seriously backwards this season, ZW should be fine for the Europa League playoff group, but Lierse need a win to avoid automatic relegation and actually have a decent record at Zulte. The hosts don't need a win as much as the visitors do, but six consecutive away defeats indicate how bad Lierse are - oppose them at the very least.
Sunday's tips will be posted on Saturday morning.
Thursday, 10 February 2011
Weekend Tips For Belgium, Greece & Portugal
I've somehow managed to overlook Portugal over the last couple of weeks, so I've put that right this week. Looks like an action packed Sunday - except in Greece, where the goal drought looks like continuing. I've not looked at the following games, but don't expect more than 2.5 goals between Aris and Olympiakos and Xanthi v Atromitos
Saturday
Greece
3:15pm
Panionios v PAOK
I was going to recommend under 2.5 goals originally, but if the price drops below 1.5 (1/2) then it's not worth taking. The alternative is to oppose Panionios - they've only won one of the last five games between these two at the Neas Smirnis Stadium and none of the bottom three clubs have beaten the top three at home this season.
Portugal
6:15pm
Nacional v Uniao de Leiria
Unclear what the result might be (I suspect a Nacional win), but there should be under 2.5 goals here.
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Charleroi
Lay 0-0. Lokeren's home games are producing an average of nearly three goals per game and Charleroi haven't kept a clean sheet all season. The hosts should win but are far too short to back.
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
Kerkyra v Panserraikos
The visitors are conceding an average of two goals a game away from home and as Kerkyra have won four of the last five league games between these two on Corfu then they're worth backing.
Iraklis v Asteras
Similar to the Panionios/PAOK game on Saturday - can't see many goals so there's no point in following the 2.5 market, so it could be worth opposing Asteras as well. The visitors have lost two of the last three league games at the Kafantzoglio and Iraklis haven't lost at home in the league since September. It's also worth having a nibble on Iraklis keeping a clean sheet.
3:00pm
Portugal
Rio Ave v Portimonense
Oppose Portimonense. The fact that they haven't won away all season is trappy, but that doesn't mean they'll do it here despite Rio Ave having only won two games at home this season. The hosts were unlucky to lose to Vitoria Guimaraes in their last home game.
5:00pm
Belgium
Standard Liege v Genk
Originally thought both teams would score, but this looks more like laying 0-0 than anything else. Although Genk's away defence is as good as Anderlecht's, Standard's home games have produced nearly 3.5 goals. If you don't fancy that, a Standard win or opposing Genk could be worth a small punt: Standard have won seven of the last nine league meetings between these two in Liege.
5:30pm
Greece
PANATHINAIKOS v AEK
Panathinaikos should win this easily - as the designated 'away' team at the Olympic Stadium this weekend AEK have only beaten Panathinaikos in the last 15 league meetings, although last three have been draws. Panathinaikos are great value for a change but that's probably more to do with the venue than anything else; I've also got an axe to grind with AEK this week, after they were turned over by Aris last weekend.
Saturday
Greece
3:15pm
Panionios v PAOK
I was going to recommend under 2.5 goals originally, but if the price drops below 1.5 (1/2) then it's not worth taking. The alternative is to oppose Panionios - they've only won one of the last five games between these two at the Neas Smirnis Stadium and none of the bottom three clubs have beaten the top three at home this season.
Portugal
6:15pm
Nacional v Uniao de Leiria
Unclear what the result might be (I suspect a Nacional win), but there should be under 2.5 goals here.
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Charleroi
Lay 0-0. Lokeren's home games are producing an average of nearly three goals per game and Charleroi haven't kept a clean sheet all season. The hosts should win but are far too short to back.
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
Kerkyra v Panserraikos
The visitors are conceding an average of two goals a game away from home and as Kerkyra have won four of the last five league games between these two on Corfu then they're worth backing.
Iraklis v Asteras
Similar to the Panionios/PAOK game on Saturday - can't see many goals so there's no point in following the 2.5 market, so it could be worth opposing Asteras as well. The visitors have lost two of the last three league games at the Kafantzoglio and Iraklis haven't lost at home in the league since September. It's also worth having a nibble on Iraklis keeping a clean sheet.
3:00pm
Portugal
Rio Ave v Portimonense
Oppose Portimonense. The fact that they haven't won away all season is trappy, but that doesn't mean they'll do it here despite Rio Ave having only won two games at home this season. The hosts were unlucky to lose to Vitoria Guimaraes in their last home game.
5:00pm
Belgium
Standard Liege v Genk
Originally thought both teams would score, but this looks more like laying 0-0 than anything else. Although Genk's away defence is as good as Anderlecht's, Standard's home games have produced nearly 3.5 goals. If you don't fancy that, a Standard win or opposing Genk could be worth a small punt: Standard have won seven of the last nine league meetings between these two in Liege.
5:30pm
Greece
PANATHINAIKOS v AEK
Panathinaikos should win this easily - as the designated 'away' team at the Olympic Stadium this weekend AEK have only beaten Panathinaikos in the last 15 league meetings, although last three have been draws. Panathinaikos are great value for a change but that's probably more to do with the venue than anything else; I've also got an axe to grind with AEK this week, after they were turned over by Aris last weekend.
Friday, 4 February 2011
Weekend Tips For Belgium & Greece
Saturday
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Aris
Under 2.5 goals - it's a Greek game after all - and back AEK, who have won 10 of the last 11 home games against Aris.
Belgium
7:00pm
ANDERLECHT v St. Truiden
Anderlecht are too short to back, so it may be worth looking at the hosts keeping a clean sheet - the hosts have kept eight clean sheets in 11 home games, including last three straight. STVV have scored in nine of the last 15 meetings at Anderlecht, but are only averaging half a goal per away game this season.
Cercle Brugge v Mechelen
Both teams to score - Mechelen have only failed to score twice in the last eight meetings and Cercle are conceding exactly one goal per home games. I've got to admit that I'm not totally convinced about backing Cercle to win though.
Watching Brief
Charleroi v Zulte
Possible 0-0 here - they've been involved in six goalless draws this season, which is the same number as the Beerschot v Lokeren game (see below). I was originally going to recommend opposing Charleroi, but Zulte's record at Charleroi isn't great (one win in the last five visits) and so checking the score out when the game's finished may be the best option
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
KAVALA v Kerkyra
Not much head to head form to go on, so once again opposing Kerkyra is probably the way forward.
Ergotelis v Panionios
This is a quandary - Ergotelis kept coming up in my number crunching, but there's no real reason why they're better than Panionios, they're just vaguely 'better' at home than Panionios are away, which could apply to about 90% of games across Europe this weekend...opposing Panionios may be the best move.
Belgium
5:00pm
Beerschot v Lokeren
Under 2.5 goals. Three of the last five meetings have been under and despite their lowly position in the table, only Anderlecht have conceded fewer goals than Beerschot this season.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Aris
Under 2.5 goals - it's a Greek game after all - and back AEK, who have won 10 of the last 11 home games against Aris.
Belgium
7:00pm
ANDERLECHT v St. Truiden
Anderlecht are too short to back, so it may be worth looking at the hosts keeping a clean sheet - the hosts have kept eight clean sheets in 11 home games, including last three straight. STVV have scored in nine of the last 15 meetings at Anderlecht, but are only averaging half a goal per away game this season.
Cercle Brugge v Mechelen
Both teams to score - Mechelen have only failed to score twice in the last eight meetings and Cercle are conceding exactly one goal per home games. I've got to admit that I'm not totally convinced about backing Cercle to win though.
Watching Brief
Charleroi v Zulte
Possible 0-0 here - they've been involved in six goalless draws this season, which is the same number as the Beerschot v Lokeren game (see below). I was originally going to recommend opposing Charleroi, but Zulte's record at Charleroi isn't great (one win in the last five visits) and so checking the score out when the game's finished may be the best option
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
KAVALA v Kerkyra
Not much head to head form to go on, so once again opposing Kerkyra is probably the way forward.
Ergotelis v Panionios
This is a quandary - Ergotelis kept coming up in my number crunching, but there's no real reason why they're better than Panionios, they're just vaguely 'better' at home than Panionios are away, which could apply to about 90% of games across Europe this weekend...opposing Panionios may be the best move.
Belgium
5:00pm
Beerschot v Lokeren
Under 2.5 goals. Three of the last five meetings have been under and despite their lowly position in the table, only Anderlecht have conceded fewer goals than Beerschot this season.
Monday, 31 January 2011
Weekend Round Up
Not a bad haul at all, I'll be keeping an eye on Anderlecht going into the championship group play off in Belgium though - Genk are now only four points behind them with a game in hand, which they play this week and is on my provisional list for Wednesday. Anderlecht's draw at Mechelen on Sunday night snapped a six game away winning streak in the league.
I mentioned that St. Truiden hadn't drawn at home all season and that laying the draw in their game against Gent was trappy and it turned out to be that way.
Seven of the eight games in Greece finished under 2.5 goals, but surprisingly the only exception was Larissa's 2-1 win over Panserraikos, which sent the visitors to the bottom of the table. Panserraikos may have a chance to pick up some points next weekend, but that's another game that needs some research.
It's the end of the month, so it's time to do the accounts - I've made a loss this month, but that was on the cards anyway given the losing streak I had earlier in January, but it'll be interesting to see where the leaks were this month.
Still, at least I'd not had any cash on Real Madrid winning La Liga - I watched the end of their defeat at Osasuna and it was full of those ridiculous slow motion close ups of Cristiano Ronaldo about to go into a major strop. Still, you make your bed etc. etc.
Should be another post up either tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday morning with some Belgian tips, still slogging away at a Superbowl Preview as well.
I mentioned that St. Truiden hadn't drawn at home all season and that laying the draw in their game against Gent was trappy and it turned out to be that way.
Seven of the eight games in Greece finished under 2.5 goals, but surprisingly the only exception was Larissa's 2-1 win over Panserraikos, which sent the visitors to the bottom of the table. Panserraikos may have a chance to pick up some points next weekend, but that's another game that needs some research.
It's the end of the month, so it's time to do the accounts - I've made a loss this month, but that was on the cards anyway given the losing streak I had earlier in January, but it'll be interesting to see where the leaks were this month.
Still, at least I'd not had any cash on Real Madrid winning La Liga - I watched the end of their defeat at Osasuna and it was full of those ridiculous slow motion close ups of Cristiano Ronaldo about to go into a major strop. Still, you make your bed etc. etc.
Should be another post up either tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday morning with some Belgian tips, still slogging away at a Superbowl Preview as well.
Friday, 28 January 2011
Free Tips For Games In Belgium & Greece
There's a chance that all games in the Greek Super League this weekend could be under 2.5 goals, but with Panathinaikos and Atromitos at home and AEK and Panserraikos away it looks unlikely. Oddly enough, the bottom two in both Belgium and Greece play each other this weekend - and both of those games are problematic.
SATURDAY
Greece
3.15pm
Iraklis v Kerkyra
Oppose Kerkyra - under 2.5 might also be worth considering and assuming an Iraklis win, that could be to nil. Iraklis have kept clean sheets in five of their nine games at the Kafantzoglio this season, which is the same number of times Kerkyra have failed to score on their travels.
Belgium
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Germinal Beerschot
Fourth placed Brugge have been a disappointment this season (fourteen points behind Anderlecht already) and they're too short to consider backing here, so the alternative markets kick in - both clubs have defensive frailties but the both teams to score market depends on Beerschot bringing their shooting boots with them. The visitors have only scored once in their last five league visits to the Jan Breydel Stadium and are currently one of six clubs in Belgium that have scored less than one goal per game on the road. Over 2.5 goals is possible, but keep the stake realistic.
Lierse v Charleroi
Bottom two clubs, so some caution advised here - opposing Charleroi looks like the safest course to me. Worth noting that only one of the eight games between the current bottom six has produced more than 2.5 goals and both teams scored in only two of those eight games.
Standard Liege v Westerlo
Definitely worth a look, especially as Standard's price has been drifting all week: despite Westerlo showing an improvement on the road this season, they've lost the last eight league games in Liege and have failed to score in seven of those.
KORTRIJK v Cercle Brugge
A nice price for a possible home win. Kortrijk's improvement at home is based on a tough defence and they've beaten Cercle in the last two league meetings in West Flanders. The only caution here would be that Kortrijk have neither won nor scored in their last two home games at the Guldensporenstadion, which is named after a medieval battle.
Sunday
A couple of possible away wins in Belgium, but I'd tread very carefully with the Greek games
Greece
1:00pm
Panionios v Kavala - watching brief only.
On paper, this game is one where over 2.5 goals is totally unthinkable...until you get to the head to head record. Four of the last five meetings at Panionios have been over. If you can find any markets for over/under 3000 spectators, take under, but the tentative recommendation is for Panionios NOT to keep a clean sheet
3:15pm
Larissa v Pansseraikos
Finding a way to oppose Pansseraikos looks like the right choice here as they've only won once in their last five trips to central Greece, but here's an official caveat emptor. Games between the current bottom four in the Super League have produced only one home win this season and that was the reverse fixture between these two at the beginning of October...I'm almost tempted to say wait and see what happens between Lierse and Charleroi on Saturday and then back whatever outcome that game produced.
Update: leave this one alone as well.
Belgium
5:00pm
Mechelen v Anderlecht
Hosts have only lost once at home this season (to Club Brugge, which is significant because despite having a disappointing season they're one of the better teams in Belgium) but have only beaten Anderlecht twice in the league at home in the last nine league meetings. Anderlecht are good for at least one goal so Mechelen not to keep a clean sheet could be worth a nibble if the price isn't too silly.
7:30pm
St Truiden v Gent
Possibly lay the draw - Gent have won six of the last ten visits to St. Truiden in the league and the hosts have yet to draw at home. It's trappy, but the alternative - Gent draw no bet - is too short.
SATURDAY
Greece
3.15pm
Iraklis v Kerkyra
Oppose Kerkyra - under 2.5 might also be worth considering and assuming an Iraklis win, that could be to nil. Iraklis have kept clean sheets in five of their nine games at the Kafantzoglio this season, which is the same number of times Kerkyra have failed to score on their travels.
Belgium
7:00pm
Club Brugge v Germinal Beerschot
Fourth placed Brugge have been a disappointment this season (fourteen points behind Anderlecht already) and they're too short to consider backing here, so the alternative markets kick in - both clubs have defensive frailties but the both teams to score market depends on Beerschot bringing their shooting boots with them. The visitors have only scored once in their last five league visits to the Jan Breydel Stadium and are currently one of six clubs in Belgium that have scored less than one goal per game on the road. Over 2.5 goals is possible, but keep the stake realistic.
Lierse v Charleroi
Bottom two clubs, so some caution advised here - opposing Charleroi looks like the safest course to me. Worth noting that only one of the eight games between the current bottom six has produced more than 2.5 goals and both teams scored in only two of those eight games.
Standard Liege v Westerlo
Definitely worth a look, especially as Standard's price has been drifting all week: despite Westerlo showing an improvement on the road this season, they've lost the last eight league games in Liege and have failed to score in seven of those.
KORTRIJK v Cercle Brugge
A nice price for a possible home win. Kortrijk's improvement at home is based on a tough defence and they've beaten Cercle in the last two league meetings in West Flanders. The only caution here would be that Kortrijk have neither won nor scored in their last two home games at the Guldensporenstadion, which is named after a medieval battle.
Sunday
A couple of possible away wins in Belgium, but I'd tread very carefully with the Greek games
Greece
1:00pm
Panionios v Kavala - watching brief only.
On paper, this game is one where over 2.5 goals is totally unthinkable...until you get to the head to head record. Four of the last five meetings at Panionios have been over. If you can find any markets for over/under 3000 spectators, take under, but the tentative recommendation is for Panionios NOT to keep a clean sheet
3:15pm
Larissa v Pansseraikos
Finding a way to oppose Pansseraikos looks like the right choice here as they've only won once in their last five trips to central Greece, but here's an official caveat emptor. Games between the current bottom four in the Super League have produced only one home win this season and that was the reverse fixture between these two at the beginning of October...I'm almost tempted to say wait and see what happens between Lierse and Charleroi on Saturday and then back whatever outcome that game produced.
Update: leave this one alone as well.
Belgium
5:00pm
Mechelen v Anderlecht
Hosts have only lost once at home this season (to Club Brugge, which is significant because despite having a disappointing season they're one of the better teams in Belgium) but have only beaten Anderlecht twice in the league at home in the last nine league meetings. Anderlecht are good for at least one goal so Mechelen not to keep a clean sheet could be worth a nibble if the price isn't too silly.
7:30pm
St Truiden v Gent
Possibly lay the draw - Gent have won six of the last ten visits to St. Truiden in the league and the hosts have yet to draw at home. It's trappy, but the alternative - Gent draw no bet - is too short.
Friday, 14 January 2011
Weekend Football Betting Tips
Seems a bit odd that I've not posted for almost a week, but unfortunately I had to attend a funeral on Tuesday and I've been catching up since I got back.
From next week onwards, I'll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven't been released yet.
There are a couple of reasons for this:
1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn't have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon's website should give you a flavour of what to expect.
2. I'm involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense - especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.
Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.
Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.
3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.
Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest's 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point...just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.
Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don't win, so there's something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price - although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.
Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves' record at City isn't that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price - there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves' away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool. Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.
Spain
5:00pm
Villareal v Osasuna
Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements - Villareal haven't lost at home, Osasuna haven't won away and the hosts haven't actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)
Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander
Oppose Racing - there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven't drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.
France
8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre's price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.
PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals - Sporting haven't scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals - Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that's the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.
SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle
I wasn't expecting this at all when I started research this game - Sunderland's home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I'm really tempted to say do it at your own risk - although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn't have to motivate his side, Newcastle's record at Sunderland speaks for itself.
Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven't been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.
Portugal
4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they're up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won't tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren't as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux
Oppose Bordeaux. They've won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that's not saying much.
Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica
A rare away win recommendation, but there's something of a revenge element in this game - Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.
From next week onwards, I'll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven't been released yet.
There are a couple of reasons for this:
1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn't have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon's website should give you a flavour of what to expect.
2. I'm involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense - especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.
Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.
Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.
3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.
Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest's 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point...just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.
Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don't win, so there's something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price - although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.
Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves' record at City isn't that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price - there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves' away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool. Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.
Spain
5:00pm
Villareal v Osasuna
Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements - Villareal haven't lost at home, Osasuna haven't won away and the hosts haven't actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)
Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander
Oppose Racing - there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven't drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.
France
8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre's price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.
PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals - Sporting haven't scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals - Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that's the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.
SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle
I wasn't expecting this at all when I started research this game - Sunderland's home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I'm really tempted to say do it at your own risk - although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn't have to motivate his side, Newcastle's record at Sunderland speaks for itself.
Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven't been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.
Portugal
4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they're up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won't tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren't as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux
Oppose Bordeaux. They've won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that's not saying much.
Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica
A rare away win recommendation, but there's something of a revenge element in this game - Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.
Saturday, 8 January 2011
Saturday Tips
First thing to emphasise: I am on a losing streak - so it'll either get worse or (hopefully!) I can start turning the situation around. Here are today's tips, there are no FA Cup games amongst them, although I'm going to back Sunderland to win the competition but purely because I think they may be worth trading if they progress to the latter rounds.
The NFL Wild Card Tips will be posted before those games kick off.
Greece
3:15pm
Kavala v Larissa
Larissa have lost their last three away games and have only won once in their last five trips to Kavala. Opposing Larissa looks solid, but it's worth pointing out that the hosts haven't kept a home clean sheet this season and both teams to score could be worth a nibble.
Spain
5:00pm
Malaga v Athletic Bilbao
Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score
Greece
5:30pm
PANATHINAIKOS v Aris
Panathinaikos are only really any value in terms of their head to head record against Aris over the last few seasons - seven wins and two draws in the past ten league games versus Aris at the Olympic Stadium - so it may be worth keeping an eye on their price before kick off. Currently only one bookie is offering over 1.5 for the Panathinaikos win and because this could be a low scoring game there are trappy elements to this match.
Spain
7:00pm
Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Real Sociedad to score - they've scored in every single home game this season and Sevilla haven't kept a clean sheet away from home. Price could be a factor here.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Braga
The are a couple of reasons why Sporting Lisbon are priced so competitively: Braga have won the last two league games at the Alvalade and Sporting have only won two of their six home games in the Superliga this season. Even so, I think there's about a 70% chance that Braga won't win this evening, especially as they haven't won away all season, so opposing them would might be a good idea. Doesn't look as if there'll be many goals in this one - the earlier game in Greece between Panathinaikos and Aris looks similar to this one.
The NFL Wild Card Tips will be posted before those games kick off.
Greece
3:15pm
Kavala v Larissa
Larissa have lost their last three away games and have only won once in their last five trips to Kavala. Opposing Larissa looks solid, but it's worth pointing out that the hosts haven't kept a home clean sheet this season and both teams to score could be worth a nibble.
Spain
5:00pm
Malaga v Athletic Bilbao
Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score
Greece
5:30pm
PANATHINAIKOS v Aris
Panathinaikos are only really any value in terms of their head to head record against Aris over the last few seasons - seven wins and two draws in the past ten league games versus Aris at the Olympic Stadium - so it may be worth keeping an eye on their price before kick off. Currently only one bookie is offering over 1.5 for the Panathinaikos win and because this could be a low scoring game there are trappy elements to this match.
Spain
7:00pm
Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Real Sociedad to score - they've scored in every single home game this season and Sevilla haven't kept a clean sheet away from home. Price could be a factor here.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Braga
The are a couple of reasons why Sporting Lisbon are priced so competitively: Braga have won the last two league games at the Alvalade and Sporting have only won two of their six home games in the Superliga this season. Even so, I think there's about a 70% chance that Braga won't win this evening, especially as they haven't won away all season, so opposing them would might be a good idea. Doesn't look as if there'll be many goals in this one - the earlier game in Greece between Panathinaikos and Aris looks similar to this one.
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
Tuesday 4th January
I'll start with the results round up - I only missed on one yesterday (Barnsley v Coventry) as I decided not to touch Atletico Madrid's game because the price had shortened too much before kick off. As a basic rule of thumb I won't back a selection if the returns are going to be less than half of the stake.
I traded out of my position on Reading v Burnley for a small profit, but the situation I was most pleased with on Monday was the goals bet on the Real Zaragoza/Real Sociedad game. Zaragoza's Braulio Nobrega scored right at the end of the game to give the hosts a 2-1 win!
There weren't as many opportunities in today's games as I thought - statistically speaking Manchester United look as if they should beat Stoke, but it might be more profitable to look at over 2.5 goals. Three of the last five league games at Old Trafford have been overs and Stoke have failed to score in eight of their last ten visits, so it looks as if United might have to do all the work. However, although Stoke have been beaten away from home without scoring on three occasions this season, they've yet to concede three or more goals in any of their games in the Premiership.
On the other hand...there might be under 2.5 goals in every game in the Greek Super League over the next couple of days. The likelihood of that happening is remote, so I'm tentatively recommending under 2.5 in the game between Aris Salonica and Kavala - but once again, this depends on the best prices before kickoff (5:30pm GMT). If the price shortens to under 1.5 it's not worth taking.
I traded out of my position on Reading v Burnley for a small profit, but the situation I was most pleased with on Monday was the goals bet on the Real Zaragoza/Real Sociedad game. Zaragoza's Braulio Nobrega scored right at the end of the game to give the hosts a 2-1 win!
There weren't as many opportunities in today's games as I thought - statistically speaking Manchester United look as if they should beat Stoke, but it might be more profitable to look at over 2.5 goals. Three of the last five league games at Old Trafford have been overs and Stoke have failed to score in eight of their last ten visits, so it looks as if United might have to do all the work. However, although Stoke have been beaten away from home without scoring on three occasions this season, they've yet to concede three or more goals in any of their games in the Premiership.
On the other hand...there might be under 2.5 goals in every game in the Greek Super League over the next couple of days. The likelihood of that happening is remote, so I'm tentatively recommending under 2.5 in the game between Aris Salonica and Kavala - but once again, this depends on the best prices before kickoff (5:30pm GMT). If the price shortens to under 1.5 it's not worth taking.
Sunday, 19 December 2010
Free Tips For Sunday 19th December
After a good start to the weekend, things didn’t exactly go to plan yesterday – poor finishing by Bolton and Blackburn, good finishing by Rio Ave and a late goal from Sporting Gijon meant that I took a hit, which hasn’t helped by the games at Watford and Lokeren being postponed. Still running at a profit for December though, even if it's not as healthy as it was.
Here are today’s tips, let’s see what happens.
Spain
4:00pm
Osasuna v Real Zaragoza
Oppose Zaragoza, under 2.5 goals
Greece
5:30pm
Larisa v Olympiakos
Under 2.5 goals - big shock in Greece yesterday, Olympiacos Volos won at Panathinaikos, which was Pana's first home defeat this season.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Lyon
The numbers suggest that Marseille could be ahead at half time but that Lyon could come back to earn a pont. Both teams to score looks as if it could take a lot of the guesswork out of the situation.
Portugal
8:15pm
Pacos de Ferriera v FC Porto
Under 2.5 goals - Porto have kept four clean sheets their six away games this season, notably at Rio Ave and Academica, who are about the same standard as Pacos. The visitors have not scored more than two goals in a league game since the end of last season.
Here are today’s tips, let’s see what happens.
Spain
4:00pm
Osasuna v Real Zaragoza
Oppose Zaragoza, under 2.5 goals
Greece
5:30pm
Larisa v Olympiakos
Under 2.5 goals - big shock in Greece yesterday, Olympiacos Volos won at Panathinaikos, which was Pana's first home defeat this season.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Lyon
The numbers suggest that Marseille could be ahead at half time but that Lyon could come back to earn a pont. Both teams to score looks as if it could take a lot of the guesswork out of the situation.
Portugal
8:15pm
Pacos de Ferriera v FC Porto
Under 2.5 goals - Porto have kept four clean sheets their six away games this season, notably at Rio Ave and Academica, who are about the same standard as Pacos. The visitors have not scored more than two goals in a league game since the end of last season.
Sunday, 12 December 2010
Free Football Betting Tips For Sunday 12th December
No home banker today because as far as I can see all the teams in bold have as good a chance of winning as any other. Made a loss of £3.80(!) over the last two days, the only one I was a bit miffed at was Valenciennes equalised with less than ten minutes left in their game against PSG...only for PSG to score what turned out to be the winning goal two minutes later. From a 'keep an eye on them' point of view, Zulte-Waregem in Belgium are looking hard to beat away from home.
Greece
3:15pm
AEK Athens v Larissa
Opposing Larissa in both halves would be a good idea, although it's only fair that I point out that AEK have now gone beyond 20 home games in the league without losing. It would be a big shock if Larissa - currently bottom - won in Athens though.
Spain
4:00pm
Real Mallorca v Racing Santander
It sounds a bit boring, but once again the right play would be to oppose Santander in both halves. They're on a twelve game losing streak away from home and have been behind at half time in every single one of their away games this season.
Belgium
5:00pm
Anderlecht v Lokeren
7:30pm
Kortrijk v Lierse
Kortrijk shouldn't have any problems in this game, but despite Lierse losing 7-0 to Standard Liege in their last road trip there's a possibility that this could be a low scoring win for the home side. Kortrijk might also keep a clean sheet - they've done that in five of their seven home games this season - but also because Lierse have failed to score in four of their last eight aways.
Spain
8:00pm
Barcelona v Real Sociedad
I'm going to assume that there's no value for a Barcelona win (there almost never is at home in La Liga) and suggest that laying 0-0 (if you can afford it) would be better. Alternatively, given that Real Sociedad's record at Camp Nou is wretched - 12 straight defeats - and Barca have kept clean sheets in the last four league meetings, backing a home clean sheet might be worth a look.
Greece
3:15pm
AEK Athens v Larissa
Opposing Larissa in both halves would be a good idea, although it's only fair that I point out that AEK have now gone beyond 20 home games in the league without losing. It would be a big shock if Larissa - currently bottom - won in Athens though.
Spain
4:00pm
Real Mallorca v Racing Santander
It sounds a bit boring, but once again the right play would be to oppose Santander in both halves. They're on a twelve game losing streak away from home and have been behind at half time in every single one of their away games this season.
Belgium
5:00pm
Anderlecht v Lokeren
7:30pm
Kortrijk v Lierse
Kortrijk shouldn't have any problems in this game, but despite Lierse losing 7-0 to Standard Liege in their last road trip there's a possibility that this could be a low scoring win for the home side. Kortrijk might also keep a clean sheet - they've done that in five of their seven home games this season - but also because Lierse have failed to score in four of their last eight aways.
Spain
8:00pm
Barcelona v Real Sociedad
I'm going to assume that there's no value for a Barcelona win (there almost never is at home in La Liga) and suggest that laying 0-0 (if you can afford it) would be better. Alternatively, given that Real Sociedad's record at Camp Nou is wretched - 12 straight defeats - and Barca have kept clean sheets in the last four league meetings, backing a home clean sheet might be worth a look.
Wednesday, 8 December 2010
Free Soccer Betting Tips For Friday and Saturday
I've also got some pre-Christmas socialising to do this weekend, hence the early post.
The weather is still playing havoc across Europe and that's why I've got nothing for Portugal - the last round of games is scheduled to finish this afternoon, but even that far south the wind is causing problems and it'll be worth checking to see if some of the northern European games are still on before parting with your cash.
Both the Hungarian and Croatian leagues have gone into hibernation and won't be back until February, but I've done some research into both of them are there are some very strong trends to exploit when they resume at the end of February.
Gent would have been my home banker selection on Saturday, but there's next to no value in the win market. So teams in bold represent the best chances of home wins; Sunday tips will be up either tomorrow or Friday and I'm going to have an depth look at Manchester United v Arsenal as well.
FRIDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
7:45pm
Swansea v Millwall under 2.5 goals
SATURDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm
Burnley v Leeds over 2.5 goals
Reading v Coventry
GREECE
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Aris Salonika under 2.5 goals
Aris could be the most boring side in Europe at the moment. There's only been one goal in every one of their six away games.
5:30pm
PAOK v Iraklis half time draw
FRANCE
6:00pm
Lorient v Lens
Draw/Lorient might work in this game, but any way to oppose Lens looks more likely to pay off. The visitors have not been ahead at half time in any of their seven away games in Ligue 1 this season, Lorient have only been behind once in their eight home games but have been level in four of them. Additionally, Lorient have won the last three league games between these two at the Stade de Moustoir.
Valenciennes v PSG
Draw. Two of the last four league games on the Belgian border have been draws and the hosts have drawn recent games with Lille and St. Etienne. PSG are on a three game away drawing streak, and their away record is similar to that of QPR.
BELGIUM
7:00pm
Gent v Charleroi
Gent should win this at a canter, but there's absolutely no value here apart from in the over 2.5 goals market.
Cercle Brugge v Zulte Waregem
Although Cercle Brugge's home record is superior to Zulte's away record, the visitors have only lost one of their last six league games at the Jan Breydel stadium and they're the draw specialists in the Jupiler League this season. Although Cercle could win this, there's value to be had on a draw at half time with 0-0 as a possible correct score after 45 minutes.
The weather is still playing havoc across Europe and that's why I've got nothing for Portugal - the last round of games is scheduled to finish this afternoon, but even that far south the wind is causing problems and it'll be worth checking to see if some of the northern European games are still on before parting with your cash.
Both the Hungarian and Croatian leagues have gone into hibernation and won't be back until February, but I've done some research into both of them are there are some very strong trends to exploit when they resume at the end of February.
Gent would have been my home banker selection on Saturday, but there's next to no value in the win market. So teams in bold represent the best chances of home wins; Sunday tips will be up either tomorrow or Friday and I'm going to have an depth look at Manchester United v Arsenal as well.
FRIDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
7:45pm
Swansea v Millwall under 2.5 goals
SATURDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm
Burnley v Leeds over 2.5 goals
Reading v Coventry
GREECE
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Aris Salonika under 2.5 goals
Aris could be the most boring side in Europe at the moment. There's only been one goal in every one of their six away games.
5:30pm
PAOK v Iraklis half time draw
FRANCE
6:00pm
Lorient v Lens
Draw/Lorient might work in this game, but any way to oppose Lens looks more likely to pay off. The visitors have not been ahead at half time in any of their seven away games in Ligue 1 this season, Lorient have only been behind once in their eight home games but have been level in four of them. Additionally, Lorient have won the last three league games between these two at the Stade de Moustoir.
Valenciennes v PSG
Draw. Two of the last four league games on the Belgian border have been draws and the hosts have drawn recent games with Lille and St. Etienne. PSG are on a three game away drawing streak, and their away record is similar to that of QPR.
BELGIUM
7:00pm
Gent v Charleroi
Gent should win this at a canter, but there's absolutely no value here apart from in the over 2.5 goals market.
Cercle Brugge v Zulte Waregem
Although Cercle Brugge's home record is superior to Zulte's away record, the visitors have only lost one of their last six league games at the Jan Breydel stadium and they're the draw specialists in the Jupiler League this season. Although Cercle could win this, there's value to be had on a draw at half time with 0-0 as a possible correct score after 45 minutes.
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