Free Tips For Sunday 10th April

A bit of an experiment today - all the games apart from Ujpest/Debrecen are low stakes bets and two of them are double chances rather than dutches as the odds are better. Helsingborg are today's possible home bankers.

Allsvenskan
3:30pm
HELSINGBORG v Elfsborg
Helsingborg/draw double chance
Result: Helsingborg 1, Elfsborg 0

Hungary NB1
4:30pm
Ujpest v Debrecen
The only trap element is that Debrecen haven't won away from home, which may be the reason for the frankly ridiculous price they've been given. Ujpest/draw double chance.
Result: Ujpest 2, Debrecen 2 - Ujpest had to come from behind twice courtesy of a brace from Estonian strike Jarmo Ahjupera.

Norway
5:00pm
Aalesund v Haugesund
Double chance Aalesund or draw,although if this game came up later in the season with the same numbers I'd be recommending a home win.
Result: Aalesund 1, Haugesund 0


Tromso v Start
Dutch home/draw
Result: Tromso 2, Start 0

7:00pm
Rosenborg v Lillestrom
Rosenborg's two defeats to start the 2011 Tippeligaen after going undefeated in 2010 have come as a shock to those that have backed for the title (ie me) and although it's far to early to write them off, another loss would be catastrophic. I'm leaving them alone until they've reached some kind of equilibrium, so this is watching brief only although I'd be surprised if Rosenborg lose today.

Free Advice For Monday 4th April

Lost amongst all the noise of an admittedly extremely exciting weekend in European football is the no less amazing story coming from Norway: Rosenborg lost again yesterday, this time to a Stabaek side that had been hammered at home by Lillestrom before the international break. As in 'hammered 7-0'. At home. Let that sink in a bit.

The last Rosenborg lost two consecutive games in the Tippeligaen was at the end of the 2008 season, when they finished fifth, fifteen points behind Stabaek. I wouldn't completely rule them out of a title challenge, but in a competition that only plays 30 games a season, a six point deficit is a large one.

Today's games are both from Scandinavia, something a little different from Sweden as I'd not be surprised if AIK nick it - and if they're going to do that, they'll need to score.

Norway
6:00pm
Lillestrom v Brann
Lay Brann or dutch home/draw.
Result: Lillestrom 1, Brann 4. The early season craziness in Norway continues.


Sweden
7:00pm
Djurgardens v AIK
Lay 0-0.

Back tomorrow, possibly with some Champions League, but probably with some more comments about Accrington Stanley.

Who's Going To Win The Allsvenskan?

I haven't posted much about the Nordic leagues recently, but with five games left to go in the Allsvenskan the race for the title between Malmö and Helsingborg couldn't be any tighter.


Neither club have had much success in the league recently: Helsingborg last won it in 1999 and Malmö's last triumph was in 2004, but as the Allsvenskan is one of the more competitive leagues (you can normally expect the title winners to come from the top half of the previous season's table) it's not much of a surprise that these two sides are doing so well. The major surprise this season is how badly AIK Stockholm are doing - last year's champions are in the relegation play off spot and are only two points away from the bottom of the table.


There are a few betting/trading opportunities left before the season finishes at the beginning of November, but I'd recommend leaving individual games alone after Round 27 as this is the point in the season where things might start to get unpredictable. Here are some pointers:


* Malmö are the current favourites, but only just. Although they've not won the Allsvenskan since 2004, they've won it 18 times, which is a record.


* Although a Helsingborg win can't be ruled out, they last won the title over a decade ago - and before that the last time they won the competition was in 1941.


* They don't have to play each other again this season: both meetings this season were home wins.


Both teams have six games left to play and this is where it gets interesting. Three of Malmö's games are away but Helsingborg have three home games left. One mistake by either and it may hand their rivals the title.


Helsingborg look as if they've got the easier task this weekend. They've not lost at home all season and face GAIS on Saturday afternoon; the visitors aren't safe from relegation yet and won't be looking forward to the trip as they've lost four consecutive away games. A straight Helsingborg win isn't any value but their unbeaten home record should continue, so laying GAIS wouldn't be the worst decision ever made - although it's worth pointing out that GAIS won the corresponding fixture last season. Low scoring game in prospect, so under 2.5 goals looks possible.


Malmö have a very tricky looking trip to Trelleborg on Sunday afternoon - the hosts have a seven game unbeaten streak going but have only beaten Malmö once in the last five meetings at home. That being said, this looks as if it could be an incredibly tight game as half of the last ten games between these two have ended as draws and I'd definitely recommend less than 2.5 goals.

Some other stats worth looking at for the Allsvenskan games this weekend:

* Elfsborg have drawn their last three games

* Kalmar have gone 11 games without a draw

* Brommapojkarna haven't won for nine games

More Swedish stats here, but I've got to get ready for a game so I'm off now. Good hunting!

Landskrona 1, Angelholms 0

A very late goal by Fredrik Karlsson enabled Landskrona to jump into fourth place in the Superettan this evening, which meant a couple of extra quid - taking my Betfair profit for August up to £19.76 ($30).

And as luck would have it...Helsingborg entertain Trelleborg in the Allsvenskan tomorrow night and unfortunately there are no prizes for guessing what I'm going to suggest, although this is one of those games where you can more or less judge the outcome by how Trelleborg are doing at half time; it's also worth remembering that they've got the worst away record in the Allsvensken and have only won once in twelve games at the Olympia Stadium. Curiously though, the last three games between these two in Helsingborg have been draws.

Helsingborgs Remain Unbeaten...Just

Helsingborgs 3, Djurgardens 3: A very, very, very late equaliser by new signing Alexander Gerndt saved Helsingborgs' unbeaten home record. The goal not only completed his hat-trick but also saved me £16 ($25) as I was so confident that Helsingborgs wouldn't loose that I'd laid Djurgardens at 9.0.

Helsingborgs played the entire second half with ten men after Marcus Lantz was given a straight red following a two footed tackle on Djurgardens' Kennedy Igboananike, who had opened the scoring a couple of minutes earlier. Despite their nunerical disadvantage, Helsingborgs were leading 2-1 after 57 minutes - which is arguably where I should have traded out - however, the insurance was in place and I was going to let the bet ride when Gerndt scored his third.

Aftonbladet has clips from the game here, may be up on Youtube tomorrow.

Overall the last couple of days have been interesting to say the least - a 73p loss on Betfair which was offset somewhat by the 1p overall profit on the half time insurance bet of draw/Djurgardens. I spent more than that on my lunch today but arguably the most significant thing that's happened over the last couple of days is that I successfully laid Safari Guide at Kempton yesterday - so the bizarre July 'winning' streak was snapped at four and I'll be recommending some more lays when some worthwhile prospects come up.

If It's Thursday, It Must Be Helsingborg

Thursday evenings are now becoming synonymous with the Europa League, which has now got to the stage where I recognise the names of most of the teams left in it, although I've got to be honest and admit I know nothing about Qarabagh Agdam of Azerbaijan.

I know a little about Swedish football and I would imagine that current Allsvenskan leaders Helsingborgs would rather qualify for next season's Champions League rather than what used to the UEFA Cup. The club - know locally as the Milk Cows - can take a big step towards achieving that when they play Djurgardens tomorrow evening.

Helsingborgs' perfect home record this season probably won't be threatened by Djurgardens - who are currently just above the relegation zone - but as they only have to play one of the current top five clubs in their last seven home games (against Gefle on September 11th) there's a chance they may remain unbeaten. Djurgardens don't have a bad record at Helsingborgs (two wins in the last three league games) but given the hosts form I'd be surprised if the visitors get anything from the game.

The strategy I'm advocating won't be a huge surprise, although I'm currently thinking of a name to describe dutching the home team to either be winning or drawing at half time so I can have a snappy way to refer to it. Whatever it ends up being called, almost 80% of games in the Allsvenskan this season have seen the home team unbeaten at half time and I'm also going to recommend a Helsingborgs win, but goals may be few or far between in this game - on average there have been 2.27 goals per game in the Allsvenskan so far and neither of these teams have particularly prolific strikers at their disposal. Goal hotspots seem likely between 30 minutes and half plus the last ten minutes of the game so I'm tempted to try a couple of 'ten minute' cycles immediately after kick off. And if anyone's interested, my stopwatch is in the kitchen ;-)

Not sure how many articles I'll be able to post over the weekend as my mum is visiting, I'm going to see David James' first appearance for Bristol City on Saturday afternoon and Sunday is my wedding anniversary!

Abdellaoue Hat Trick As Valerenga Smash Start

Valerenga 8, Start 1: the visitors got off to a good...ummm...start when they scored in the 12th minute but it was all downhill from there.

I thought there'd be goals in this game, but I wasn't expecting nine! Mohammed Abdellaoue filled his boots with a hat trick and is now four goals ahead of former Spurs, Wolves and Valerenga striker Steffen Iversen (now with Rosenborg) in the leading goalscorer table: there are a few clips on YouTube showing what Abdellaoue is capable of and it he's that good I can't imagine him playing in Norway for much longer.

Bonus: here are the goals!



In Sweden, Trelleborg beat Halmstad 1-0 thanks to a goal from Mattias Adelstam twelve minutes from time - Trelleborg really were very good value for the win so I hope you benefitted from that one.

Yesterday's profit on Betfair: £3.51! I decided to invest some of the profit on one of the major European leagues - more of which later in the week.

Monday Night Football

Very quick post because one of the games this evening is worth a look because the odds are very weird: Trelleborg v Halmstad in the Swedish Allsvenskan satisfies my basic system requirements but the head to head statistics are freaky and have given the odds compilers a real headache.


The problem in a nutshell: Trelleborg have won just two of the last twelve meetings between these two at the Vangavallen Stadium (including the last one) and despite currently being below Halmstad in the league table they have a reasonably good home record - it's Trelleborg's away form that's appalling and their record away from home is slightly actually better than Halmstad's current away record.


Recommendations: the usual - Halmstad haven't lead at the half all season but as there's a 50% chance of a draw then dutching Trelleborgs/draw looks like the way forward. However, I would strongly recommend an insurance bet of draw/Halmstads. However, I'm also going to recommend a Trelleborg win on Betfair because Halmstad need to score to have any chance at all and they've only scored three goals in eight away games in the league season - the insurance bet here is draw or Halmstad, which should be available at a decent price before kickoff.


The other game is in the Norwegian Eliteserien and should be more straightforward. Valerenga have not lost at home this season and can move into second place with a win over Start this evening; Start have won their last two away games (against struggling Sandefjord and Molde, both of whom are beneath them) but have only won five of their last 20 road trips.


And guess what? Valerenga haven't been behind at half time. If you've been paying attention you know what to do, but as an added bonus tonight's game features the leading scorer in the Eliteserien, Mohammed Abdellaoue of Valerenga. He's scored 31% of their goals this season and is worth a punt for either first goal/anytime goalscorer, which is only available at bet365.


Right, got to go...have to put the money on!

Sunday Round Up

Malmo 1, GAIS 0: a 22nd minute goal from Ivo Pekalski put Malmo within two points of leaders Helsingborgs, who play this evening. Malmo's home streak continues - next home game is 14th August against struggling Gefle.


Viking 0, Sandefjord 0: Viking/half time dutch worked out OK, but Viking to win didn't; a good job I had an insurance bet on half time/Sandefjord - I picked up £5.58 (almost $9) on that. I also had one of bwin's two way specials on Sandefjord -  if the game ends in a draw, then you get your stake back.


Tromso 3, Stabaek 0: another weird laptop intervention - my system hung just before kick off and when I managed to open the market there had already been a goal. George Mourad opened the scoring after four minutes but I actually managed to complete two cycles of the 'ten minute' strategy so it wasn't a write off by any means. I hadn't expected a 3-0 scoreline so it was a bit of a risk, but there were 61 minutes between the first and second goals - so that trade could have been executed six times.


St Louis Cardinals 9, Pittsburgh Pirates 1: it was too late to post this game as a recommendation yesterday, but what swung it for me was that Pittsburgh had lost 14 straight Sunday road games. Make that 15. Why is there no relegation in baseball? The Pirates would probably struggle in AAA ball.


Betfair profit for yesterday: £3.15 ($5 more or less). Remember, I'm currently trading at minimum stakes (£2 per bet - about $3.17), but even so that's basically a free bet.


I'm going to post this now, but I've got an unexpected afternoon off work and there are a couple of Monday games in Scandinavia that look promising.

Sunday In Scandinavia

I managed to get the original list of five games down to three, of which two look worthwhile and one needs some extra logic applied to it. But first of all, I have to admit to feeling immensely pleased with myself: Fluminense won 3-1 so yesterday couldn't really have gone any better.


Today's action kicks off at Malmo at 3:30 GMT where the hosts take on GAIS in the Allsvenskan. I could just cut and paste the next comments from some of the other previews I've written recently, but I'm going to write it again for the sake of emphasis: Malmo have not been trailing either at half time or at full time of any of their home games this season. GAIS haven't exactly been awful away from home (they have only lost four of their last ten away games in the Allsvenskan); that's a little different from the other part of the home win equation that's come up in the past couple of weeks and effectively reduces the chances that Malmo will win both halves. So - once again - it's a dutch on Malmo or draw for the first half, which looks like this:


Malmo £2.27@2.12 = £2.54 profit 
The draw £2@2.4 = £2.80 profit
GAIS leading at half time = £4.27 loss
Dutch profit: 53p (which I can go wild with!), although the total return would be £5.87.
Insurance: draw or GAIS to at least cover the £4.27 loss - although if the game is a draw at half time then that bet is a good one too. That's exactly what happened with the Dynamo Moscow game yesterday.


However, even if the game is a draw at half time, I think there's enough evidence to point to a Malmo win - there's no time for reams of stats today so you'll have to trust me.


Malmo win £2 @ 1.52 = £1.04 profit, total return £3.04.
Draw or GAIS win: £2.00 loss
Insurance: draw or GAIS to cover the £2 loss.


The next couple of games are in Norway, both kick off at 5pm GMT. The most straightforward of the two is between Viking Stavanger and Sandefjord - the latter are rock bottom of the Eliteserien and have lost 12 of their last 20 away games. They satisfy one of the major requirements for a home win: Sandefjord have lead at half time or won away this season. You could lay Sandefjord to be behind at half time and lose the game, but the liabilities are large, so at the risk of being predictable I'm going to recommend exactly the same strategy as  the Malmo v GAIS game above.


The last game is a tricky one. Tromso v Stabaek qualified for my basic system but on closer inspection this one of those games where the away side has an extremely good head to head record against the home team. In fact, Stabaek have won four of the last eight games in Tromso between the two and have drawn half of their away games in the Eliteserien this season. There's a reasonable possibility of a draw but at this point I normally look for what's least likely to happen in this game and in this case it's goals.


Tromso have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 games and have only let in more than one goal on one occasion in that period, so whichever way you look at it they have a strong defensive home record. The last four matches in the series at the Alfheim Stadium have been close - no more than one goal in those games - and despite there being 2.87 goals per game in the Eliteserien this season this game looks as if it might be under 2.5. Two ways forward here:


Lay Over 2.5 goals - £2 @ 2.1, which would mean a total liability of £4.10 if it turned into a goal fest but a profit of £2 if it didn't. This can be a good option if you're looking to trade as soon as a goal is scored but predicting when that might be is an art rather than a science.


Alternatively, lay Over 2.5 goals as soon as the game goes in play, wait ten minutes then back it whatever the price is. Then do the same thing again. Then stop and wait for a goal and repeat step one. This is what I'm going to do - so I need to find my stopwatch!


I'm going to look at some of today's baseball match ups now, but I'll update this post with what happened in the Scandinavian games later on. I'm also aware that I've not posted my major European soccer predictions yet, but there is still some research to be done.

Helsingborg Go Top In Sweden

Helsingborg 3-1 BK Hacken: despite a surprise early goal from Mattias Ostberg, Helsingborg reclaimed top spot in the Allsvenskan earlier this evening and now have a five point lead going into this weekend's games. 


Two goals from Eric Sundin and a winner from Marcus Holgersson seventeen minutes from time meant that the hosts kept not only their unbeaten half time record but also their home undefeated streak intact: they're away at Brommapojkarna next Monday, two days after Malmo entertain GAIS.


Romantic Queen finished fourth. I think a spell of paper trading is called for ;-)

Insurance Part 100

Harbinger surprised a more than a few people on Saturday and once again the insurance paid off. I'm really intrigued about how things have been going lately, it's been fun in a weird kind of way, the most preposterous hot streak I think I've had for a long while. I've got a pretty good idea why it's happening but I'm going to wait until the end of the month before analysing the results.

Anyway, there's a system game on Monday evening: Helsingborg v BK Hacken in the Swedish Allsvenskan. Malmo won 1-0 on Saturday (thanks to an Agon Mehmeti goal after 41 minutes) which means a Helsingborg win would send them into first place. This next bit sounds really familiar: Helsingborg haven't been behind at half time in home games all season and haven't lost at home all season either. This scenario seems to be cropping up a lot at the moment. In which case, it's probably fair to assume that Hacken won't be ahead at half time and Helsingborg will win the game; the insurance bet would be a half time double chance (usually available at bwin.com) for the draw or Hacken.

Thanks to the data at the excellent h2hstats.com site, there is another good reason for choosing a Helsingborg win. Of the teams that are currently involved in their league seasons, Helsingborg have the joint best points per game average at home (shared with Corinthians in Brazil's Serie A, who won again on Sunday) and the third best points per game average in all games (behind Zenit St. Petersburg in Russia and Derry City in Ireland).

Given the ambiguous position I find myself in due to horse racing, rather than recommending a straight lay I'm going to back Romantic Queen in the 4:00 at Wolverhampton this afternoon with a view to laying her later if the price moves as I expect it to.

The Easiest Way To Avoid Losing!

Don't strike any bets.

Buoyed by the 0-0 draw between Terek Groznyi and Amkar Perm on Sunday, I totally forgot to commit to Molde and Sandefjord - I managed to get 5:00pm mixed up with 7:00pm, which is pathetic! It goes without saying that the Molde/half time dutch would have worked.

Corinthians beat Atletico Mineiro 1-0 thanks to a late goal from Bruno Cesar; they still hold pole position in Serie A despite a 3-1 defeat at Atletico Goianiense earlier today. So all in all a mostly satisfactory Sunday - apart from the screw up with the Molde game.

I'm only going to recommend one game this weekend because it's my birthday on Saturday and I'm going to have a couple of days off.

The game is Malmo v AIK in the Swedish Allsvenskan on Saturday. A Malmo win can take them within two points of leaders Helsingborg, who lost earlier this evening to BK Hacken in Gothenburg; Malmo haven't lost at home this season, they haven't been behind at half time all season and haven't lost at home to AIK since October 1996. Defending champions AIK have had a terrible start to the season, having lost five of their last seven aways games without scoring in five them: however they've qualified for the third qualifying round of Champions League, they'll play Rosenborg next week.

Malmo or draw or laying an AIK lead at half time might be a good place to start, although the AIK lay is currently priced at 7.4; the current best price for Malmo to win the game is 13/20.