Who's Going To Win The Allsvenskan?

I haven't posted much about the Nordic leagues recently, but with five games left to go in the Allsvenskan the race for the title between Malmö and Helsingborg couldn't be any tighter.


Neither club have had much success in the league recently: Helsingborg last won it in 1999 and Malmö's last triumph was in 2004, but as the Allsvenskan is one of the more competitive leagues (you can normally expect the title winners to come from the top half of the previous season's table) it's not much of a surprise that these two sides are doing so well. The major surprise this season is how badly AIK Stockholm are doing - last year's champions are in the relegation play off spot and are only two points away from the bottom of the table.


There are a few betting/trading opportunities left before the season finishes at the beginning of November, but I'd recommend leaving individual games alone after Round 27 as this is the point in the season where things might start to get unpredictable. Here are some pointers:


* Malmö are the current favourites, but only just. Although they've not won the Allsvenskan since 2004, they've won it 18 times, which is a record.


* Although a Helsingborg win can't be ruled out, they last won the title over a decade ago - and before that the last time they won the competition was in 1941.


* They don't have to play each other again this season: both meetings this season were home wins.


Both teams have six games left to play and this is where it gets interesting. Three of Malmö's games are away but Helsingborg have three home games left. One mistake by either and it may hand their rivals the title.


Helsingborg look as if they've got the easier task this weekend. They've not lost at home all season and face GAIS on Saturday afternoon; the visitors aren't safe from relegation yet and won't be looking forward to the trip as they've lost four consecutive away games. A straight Helsingborg win isn't any value but their unbeaten home record should continue, so laying GAIS wouldn't be the worst decision ever made - although it's worth pointing out that GAIS won the corresponding fixture last season. Low scoring game in prospect, so under 2.5 goals looks possible.


Malmö have a very tricky looking trip to Trelleborg on Sunday afternoon - the hosts have a seven game unbeaten streak going but have only beaten Malmö once in the last five meetings at home. That being said, this looks as if it could be an incredibly tight game as half of the last ten games between these two have ended as draws and I'd definitely recommend less than 2.5 goals.

Some other stats worth looking at for the Allsvenskan games this weekend:

* Elfsborg have drawn their last three games

* Kalmar have gone 11 games without a draw

* Brommapojkarna haven't won for nine games

More Swedish stats here, but I've got to get ready for a game so I'm off now. Good hunting!