Spanish Tips For Wednesday Night

There's probably a good reason why Real Sociedad are so competitively priced for their game against Levante (I'd have them around 8/15) but that's not what we're looking at today. I'm going to recommend laying over 3.5 goals in both these games. Bold caps equals possible home banker, bold means expected home win.

VILLAREAL v Hercules
Although the visitors away form is nothing to write home about, they've not been involved with a game with more than three goals all season: I also wouldn't be too surprised if Villareal kept a clean sheet.

Real Sociedad v Levante
I was going to suggest laying 0-0 but Real Sociedad haven't drawn at home all season (maybe that fact explains the price) and so far they've scored in every home league game this season - so there are a couple of traps there already. Real Sociedad will either win...or they won't.

Update: Villareal won 1-0 and Sociedad drew with Levante. I'll be back on Friday.

Weekend Round Up

Not a bad haul at all, I'll be keeping an eye on Anderlecht going into the championship group play off in Belgium though - Genk are now only four points behind them with a game in hand, which they play this week and is on my provisional list for Wednesday. Anderlecht's draw at Mechelen on Sunday night snapped a six game away winning streak in the league.

I mentioned that St. Truiden hadn't drawn at home all season and that laying the draw in their game against Gent was trappy and it turned out to be that way.

Seven of the eight games in Greece finished under 2.5 goals, but surprisingly the only exception was Larissa's 2-1 win over Panserraikos, which sent the visitors to the bottom of the table. Panserraikos may have a chance to pick up some points next weekend, but that's another game that needs some research.

It's the end of the month, so it's time to do the accounts - I've made a loss this month, but that was on the cards anyway given the losing streak I had earlier in January, but it'll be interesting to see where the leaks were this month.

Still, at least I'd not had any cash on Real Madrid winning La Liga - I watched the end of their defeat at Osasuna and it was full of those ridiculous slow motion close ups of Cristiano Ronaldo about to go into a major strop. Still, you make your bed etc. etc.

Should be another post up either tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday morning with some Belgian tips, still slogging away at a Superbowl Preview as well.

Tips For Monday 3rd January

Back to the fray, with games from the Championship and Spain. I won six of my eight Championship recommendations for a three point profit in December, so as they're the early kickoffs on Monday we'll start here.

nPower Championship
Both 3:00pm GMT
Barnsley v Coventry
Under 2.5 goals

Reading v Burnley
Definitely worth a look at the draw or opposing Burnley in this one - the only team that's drawn more games at home than Reading have this season is Nottingham Forest and Burnley have drawn the most games away from home. It also helps that the Clarets haven't won in Berkshire for almost 30 years and five of the last ten league games between these at Reading have finished in draws.

My December predictions for La Liga managed a 50% strike rate, so I'm looking to improve that this month. The main issue was picking home winners amongst the 'second tier' of Spanish clubs so I'm going to be more cautious about those this month. It looks as if Espanyol, Villareal and Osasuna might be worth backing at home in January, so when they're at home I'll add them to the calendar. The goal markets were a bit more consistent (two wins from three recommendations in December) so depending on what comes up there might be some more of those in January.

At time of posting, all three of the recommendations below were drifting, so it's worth keeping an eye on the prices and recycling any wins from the Championship bets if necessary.

La Liga
7:00pm GMT
VILLAREAL v Almeria
Definitely worth a look - I backed Villareal to beat Sevilla last month and they've got a good record against teams of a similar level to Almeria

Atletico Madrid v Racing Santander
Racing Santander have only won twice in their last sixteen league visits to the Vicente Calderon and only Osasuna have a worse away record this season.

Real Zaragoza v Real Sociedad
Over 2.5 goals - six of the last ten league meetings between these two at La Romareda have been over, including four of the last five. Seven of Real Sociedad's eight away games this season have also been over.

Busy week this week - Premiership and Greek tips coming tomorrow.

Late Goals May Be Key To Man U v Arsenal

First of all, although I'll be watching Manchester United v Arsenal I'm not going to get involved - especially as Valencia v Osasuna offers more clear cut opportunities. There's nothing wrong with writing a preview though.

This is easily Manchester United's toughest home game in the Premiership so far this season. Based on Friday's table they've only played one other top five team at home in 2010/11 (Spurs) and the average position of their opponents is thirteenth. Arsenal have had a slightly easier away schedule despite playing at Chelsea and Manchester City.


United should be about evens for the win - they've won seven of their eight home games in the Prem this season and have beaten Arsenal in six of the last ten league meetings at Old Trafford. The Gunners didn't get off to a great start away from the Emirates (four points from 12) but have won their last four consecutive away games.


Unfortunately for the outright markets, that's where any interest ends. The current best prices on the draw no bet market are 4/9 for United and 2/1 for Arsenal: the double chance market isn't even worth considering.


A couple of facts about the goals markets stand out immediately. Despite winning four of the last 20 meetings at United, Arsenal have failed to score more than one goal in the league at Old Trafford since November 1984, so if the Gunners stand any chance of picking three points up in the North West, they have to stop United from scoring.


And there's the rub. United have failed to score only once in the last 50 Premiership games (last December against Aston Villa) and even when they lose at home they score. Arsenal have won 'to nil' twice away from home this season, but beating a Manchester City team that played almost the entire game with ten men and a Wolves team that's clearly struggling doesn't exactly inspire confidence. To underline this point, Arsenal have taken the lead against United in two of the last three league meetings in the North West but only went on to win one of those games.


Looking at it the other way round, if Manchester United stop Arsenal from scoring they will at least earn a point. United have kept four clean sheets in the league this season but Newcastle, West Ham and Wigan don't have the same potential for goals that Arsenal do; nine different players have scored for Arsenal in their away games in the Premiership this season - Marouane Chamakh is the leading scorer with three.

I only usually look at goal times for big games and although I already knew that late goals were a feature of United's games, I was astonished when I took a close look at goal times in games featuring these teams this season. There have been a lot, although strangely enough only two of the late goals in Arsenal's games have had any affect on the result of the game: Pepe Reina's own goal in August meant that the Gunners gained a point at Anfield and a month later Darren Bent's equaliser for Sunderland meant Arsenal dropped rwo points. Since then late goals in Arsenal's away games have either been padding their lead or consolation goals for the opponents.

United's late goals in the Premiership at Old Trafford have a similar pattern - two decisive goals (Berbatov's winner against Liverpool and Park's winner against Wolves), one that made the game safe (Nani's ridiculous goal against Spurs) and one to make the score look one sided (Ryan Giggs against Newcastle).

Verdict: Arsenal probably won't win, but there are a lot of things to keep an eye out for. Will United concede a first half goal for the first time this season? Can Arsenal score two goals at Old Trafford for the first time in a quarter of a century? Will Howard Webb award a penalty or give anyone a red card?

Away from the Premier League, Valencia's game with Osasuna looks far more clear cut. The visitors have only picked up one point away from home this season, Valencia have won nine of the last ten league meetings between the two sides at the Mestalla and this looks like a low scoring game that Valencia should win, possibly keeping a clean sheet in doing so.

Results Round Up

60% strike rate last weekend but still made a minor loss (less than one point) mainy due to chasing draws that didn't come off - I mentioned yesterday that Valenciennes v PSG was the only slightly annoying one but I obviously jinxed Real Mallorca!

Overall just over three points profit for December so I'm not complaining. I broke even on Anderlecht because I was watching the live feed on Betfair at the same time as the Spurs/Chelsea game and although Lokeren were reduced to ten men after Koen Persoons was sent off after half an hour, the hosts had neither the flair nor the imagination to break down the Lokeren defence. When the draw price had dropped down to 1.44 (the same price I backed the Anderlecht win) I took it and the game finished goalless so I broke even.

Big game in the Premiership tonight, but despite investigating various angles I'm leaving it alone - it's interesting to note that Arsenal haven't scored more than one goal at Old Trafford in the league since November 1984 and that even when they lose at home United still manage to score. There are far more opportunities in the Valencia/Osasuna game in Spain this evening and I'll be back later with at least one recommendation.

Finally for now, the New England Patriots are looking formidable in the NFL and the College Bowl season starts on Saturday, so I'll definitely be taking a look at some of those games.

Free Football Betting Tips For Sunday 12th December

No home banker today because as far as I can see all the teams in bold have as good a chance of winning as any other. Made a loss of £3.80(!) over the last two days, the only one I was a bit miffed at was Valenciennes equalised with less than ten minutes left in their game against PSG...only for PSG to score what turned out to be the winning goal two minutes later. From a 'keep an eye on them' point of view, Zulte-Waregem in Belgium are looking hard to beat away from home.


Greece
3:15pm
AEK Athens v Larissa
Opposing Larissa in both halves would be a good idea, although it's only fair that I point out that AEK have now gone beyond 20 home games in the league without losing. It would be a big shock if Larissa - currently bottom - won in Athens though.


Spain
4:00pm
Real Mallorca v Racing Santander
It sounds a bit boring, but once again the right play would be to oppose Santander in both halves. They're on a twelve game losing streak away from home and have been behind at half time in every single one of their away games this season.


Belgium
5:00pm
Anderlecht v Lokeren

7:30pm
Kortrijk v Lierse
Kortrijk shouldn't have any problems in this game, but despite Lierse losing 7-0 to Standard Liege in their last road trip there's a possibility that this could be a low scoring win for the home side. Kortrijk might also keep a clean sheet - they've done that in five of their seven home games this season - but also because Lierse have failed to score in four of their last eight aways.


Spain
8:00pm
Barcelona v Real Sociedad
I'm going to assume that there's no value for a Barcelona win (there almost never is at home in La Liga) and suggest that laying 0-0 (if you can afford it) would be better. Alternatively, given that Real Sociedad's record at Camp Nou is wretched - 12 straight defeats - and Barca have kept clean sheets in the last four league meetings, backing a home clean sheet might be worth a look.

Ten Man Espanyol Win & Keep A Clean Sheet

Very satisfactory late afternoon early evening.

Even after going down to ten men early in the second half following the dismissal of Jose Baena, Espanyol beat Sporting Gijon 1-0. There were also single goal victories for Villareal and Sunderland, so not a bad day at the office at all.

Very big game in the NFL tonight, I might post a preview later but unless something really statistically significant stands out then I won't be making any recommendations.

Free Tips For Sunday 5th December

Oddly enough, despite being from different leagues, there's a common theme to the games I'm looking at today. With the possible exception of Villareal v Sevilla, the other games feature away sides that aren't doing particularly well at the moment but have decent records at the teams they're visiting today. Bold represents home win, bold caps is a home banker.

Spain
4:00pm
ESPANYOL v Sporting Gijon
Espanyol have failed to beat Sporting Gijon in any of the last six home games in Barcelona, but they're on a seven game home winning streak while Gijon have failed to win any of their last fourteen away games. There are good reasons to support a nibble at an Espanyol clean sheet too - in four of their six home games this season they've prevented their opponents from scoring and Gijon have failed to score in the four away games where they've faced opponents that are currently above them in the league.

6:00pm
Villareal v Sevilla
Villareal have a formidable home record over the last 20 games (only two defeats) and have only lost twice at home to Sevilla in the league in the last decade. There's a bit of health warning on this game though as the visitors have now gone 26 games without an away draw(!) but the last time Sevilla travelled to a top four side Barcelona beat them 5-0. Although Villareal aren't in the same class as Barcelona I think they're a genuine contender for Champions League football next season and they should win this one.

Watching Brief Only
Premiership
4:00pm
Sunderland v West Ham
Raw numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw and opposing West Ham seems like the logical thing to do, but Sunderland's home record against teams that are currently below them in the Premiership features two draws in three games so a draw cannot be completely ruled out. Sunderland have only won eight of their last 20 games at the Stadium of Light and as West Ham haven't won an away game for well over a year now they are due a win at some point; The trouble is will it come today?
Recommendation: nice pot of tea and some crumpets, feet up and curse the fact you didn't back a West Ham win.

Barcelona 5, Real Madrid 0

Bloody hell - in a good way that is. What a performance!

It's easy to be wise after the event, thanks to Jeffren as the second half won the most goals bet and the Barcelona draw no bet also came off. Football was the real winner though - fantastic.

Thoughts On 'El Clasico'

With apologies to Leicester City and Nottingham Forest, there's only one game worth looking at today.

There are actually a few value markets left for Barcelona v Real Madrid, so let's try to make some sense from them. The following stats are for the last fifteen league games at Nou Camp; those in italic are for the last 20 league games where Barcelona have been at home and Real Madrid have been away.

Barcelona Win
The hosts have won the last two meetings, but those victories are the only two in the last five meetings and the hosts have only won four of the last ten - in fact, consecutive Barca victories over Real Madrid have been pretty rare recently. The last time Barcelona won consecutive games was March 98 and February 99 and - with the exception of the last two seasons - the pattern is that a draw normally follows the season after a Barcelona win. Hardly a convincing case for a Barcelona win.

Barcelona have won 17 of their last 20 home games in La Liga, but Real Madrid have only lost twice away from home in the same period and are currently on a sixteen game unbeaten streak away from home.

Barcelona Clean Sheet
Slightly clearer. Real Madrid have failed to score in nine of the last 15 games and both of Barcelona's most recent victories have been to nil.

Barcelona have kept clean sheets in half of their last 20 league games, Real have only been shut out five times in the same period - but have only lost twice when they've failed to score.

Conclusion: possible, but unlikely. Although Real Madrid have scored eight of their ten away goals in La Liga in the second half, Barcelona have conceded four of the five goals scored against them at Nou Camp in the first half and seem to be vulnerable from the 25th minute onwards.

Less Than 1.5 Goals
Only four of the last fifteen games have featured less than 1.5 goals, but that includes two of the last three. There's been an average of 2.4 goals in these games.

Barcelona have only featured in four games from the last 20 where less than 1.5 goals were scored - and they won all four. Real Madrid have featured in seven - but three were in La Liga this season and they've drawn two.

Conclusion: possible, but also unlikely - for similar reasons to those concerning a Barcelona clean sheet.

Less Than 3.5 Goals
13 of the last 15 games have featured less than 3.5 goals - the last one was a 3-3 draw in March 2007.

13 of Barca's last 20 games have featured under 3.5 goals, four of their six home league games this season have been under 3.5 but their last two games (5-0 v Sevilla and 3-1 over Villareal) have been over. 12 of Real Madrid's last 20 games have been under 3.5 goals including four of their six road trips this season.

Conclusion: this could be the way forward. It may be a safer bet than under 2.5 goals - given the firepower both sides possess, there's a chance that rather than quantity of goals, we may be looking at quality.

0-0 Correct Score
Only one game in the last fifteen (November 2002)

Barcelona have not featured in a 0-0 draw at the Nou Camp since April 2008(!) - a 46 game streak. Real Madrid have already drawn 0-0 with Levante and Mallorca this season.

Conclusion: a massive trap here that could pay out - any time there's a slightly ridiculous streak on the line it's worth opposing, so even though it's a contradiction in terms of the arguments immediately above, backing 0-0 might be worth it.

RECOMMENDATIONS
The numbers I normally use indicate a 58.3% chance of a draw at half time with less than one goal being scored, which also fits the hypothesis that the second half will be the highest scoring half. However, they also indicate that although Real Madrid won't win (86%), Barcelona may not win either - Barcelona draw no bet could be worth a look, as could the draw. I don't think there will be that many goals either, but under 3.5 goals is potentially safer than under 2.5.

In terms of 'gut feeling', backing either Messi or Villa to score first and between 21 and 30 minutes as the time of the first goal might be worth a minimum stakes investment.

I'm tempted to say that this is worth watching rather than getting involved with, but with some value to be had in certain markets I don't think going overboard with staking is a good idea though. Let's hope it's a good game and at least lives up to some of the hype.

Sunday 28th November

Better performance on Saturday, 61% strike rate with a clean sweep on the recommendations in Croatia - next week is the last round of games there before the winter break.

Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.

Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs

Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.

Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw

Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw

Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.

Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!

Tips For Saturday 27th November

Well, yesterday can be described in one word: ouch. Still, back on the horse and no loss chasing...here are Saturday's tips, teams in bold are worth a straight win bet, Hajduk Split are today's home banker.

CROATIA
3:00pm
HAJDUK SPLIT v Osijek
Cibalia v Sibenik
Karlovac v Zadar
Slaven v Inter Zapresic back draw at half time and under 2.5 goals for the game


HUNGARY
3:00pm
Kecskemeti v MTK - back draw at half time

PORTUGAL
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Olhanense - back draw
5:00pm
Maritimo v Vitoria Guimaraes - back draw at half time
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v FC Porto under 2.5 goals

SPAIN
5:00pm
Real Zaragoza v Villareal over 2.5 goals
9:00pm
Oppose Espanyol in both halves against Atletico Madrid


BELGIUM
7:00pm
Cercle Bruges v Germinal Beerschot

Right, I'm off to watch the rugby in Bath. Happy hunting!

Monday Results

Frustrating evening all round, but sometimes that's the game.

As soon as Sunderland v Everton kicked off it looked and sounded more like a cup tie than a league game and with two goals in the first 25 minutes under 2.5 was looking dodgy at best.

Meanwhile, to the south of Madrid, a goal from Real Zaragoza's Argentinian striker Nicolas Bertolo gave his side a half time lead for the first time this season against Getafe - although former Zaragoza striker Adrian Colunga equalised from a penalty shortly after half time and the game finished in a draw, that was the only positive result of the night.

Still, I won this week's game in the NFL fantasy league I play in (6-5 for the season) - and I'll have a team next week, which is more than can be said about former Vikings coach Ray Childress. Minnesota fitted part of the profile of potential Superbowl winners that I posted a couple of weeks ago, but their decline this season is arguably on a par with the meltdown in Dallas.

Looking back at the profile - and taking into account the two games played since I posted it - there's been some movement, but the 8-2 Atlanta Falcons are currently a very tradeable 11.5 (10/1) on Betfair. It might be worth waiting until after their game with the Packers (7-3) on Sunday before making a move.

Monday Night Football 22nd November 2010

Sunderland v Everton 8pm
Looks like a low scoring game with a high draw possibility to me - Sunderland are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but Everton don't have a bad recent record against the Black Cats, they've won four of the last five meetings in the North East. Arguably the safest bet is under 2.5 goals.

Getafe v Real Zaragoza 8pm
Opposing Real Zaragoza in both halves looks like a sound strategy as they've yet to win away or lead at half time, which explains why they're bottom of the league. Having said that...I'm not sure that I've got enough confidence in Getafe winning outright, so dutching Getafe/the draw in both halves looks as if it's worth a go.

I might have a look at the Chargers/Broncos game later on, but I've got some real life stuff to attend to today and given my alarming tendency to back the wrong outcome in the NFL recently then I might just leave it...

Tips For Sunday 21st November

Only a couple today, I ruled out a few after doing a quick risk v reward analysis. The teams in bold are also worth a straight win bet.

Spain:
4:00pm
Osasuna v Gijon - oppose Gijon in both halves
Espanyol v Hercules - oppose Hercules for the game


Hungary:
4:30pm
Fehervar (aka Videoton on some coupons) v Ujpest