Bloody hell - in a good way that is. What a performance!
It's easy to be wise after the event, thanks to Jeffren as the second half won the most goals bet and the Barcelona draw no bet also came off. Football was the real winner though - fantastic.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Monday, 29 November 2010
Thoughts On 'El Clasico'
With apologies to Leicester City and Nottingham Forest, there's only one game worth looking at today.
There are actually a few value markets left for Barcelona v Real Madrid, so let's try to make some sense from them. The following stats are for the last fifteen league games at Nou Camp; those in italic are for the last 20 league games where Barcelona have been at home and Real Madrid have been away.
Barcelona Win
The hosts have won the last two meetings, but those victories are the only two in the last five meetings and the hosts have only won four of the last ten - in fact, consecutive Barca victories over Real Madrid have been pretty rare recently. The last time Barcelona won consecutive games was March 98 and February 99 and - with the exception of the last two seasons - the pattern is that a draw normally follows the season after a Barcelona win. Hardly a convincing case for a Barcelona win.
Barcelona have won 17 of their last 20 home games in La Liga, but Real Madrid have only lost twice away from home in the same period and are currently on a sixteen game unbeaten streak away from home.
Barcelona Clean Sheet
Slightly clearer. Real Madrid have failed to score in nine of the last 15 games and both of Barcelona's most recent victories have been to nil.
Barcelona have kept clean sheets in half of their last 20 league games, Real have only been shut out five times in the same period - but have only lost twice when they've failed to score.
Conclusion: possible, but unlikely. Although Real Madrid have scored eight of their ten away goals in La Liga in the second half, Barcelona have conceded four of the five goals scored against them at Nou Camp in the first half and seem to be vulnerable from the 25th minute onwards.
Less Than 1.5 Goals
Only four of the last fifteen games have featured less than 1.5 goals, but that includes two of the last three. There's been an average of 2.4 goals in these games.
Barcelona have only featured in four games from the last 20 where less than 1.5 goals were scored - and they won all four. Real Madrid have featured in seven - but three were in La Liga this season and they've drawn two.
Conclusion: possible, but also unlikely - for similar reasons to those concerning a Barcelona clean sheet.
Less Than 3.5 Goals
13 of the last 15 games have featured less than 3.5 goals - the last one was a 3-3 draw in March 2007.
13 of Barca's last 20 games have featured under 3.5 goals, four of their six home league games this season have been under 3.5 but their last two games (5-0 v Sevilla and 3-1 over Villareal) have been over. 12 of Real Madrid's last 20 games have been under 3.5 goals including four of their six road trips this season.
Conclusion: this could be the way forward. It may be a safer bet than under 2.5 goals - given the firepower both sides possess, there's a chance that rather than quantity of goals, we may be looking at quality.
0-0 Correct Score
Only one game in the last fifteen (November 2002)
Barcelona have not featured in a 0-0 draw at the Nou Camp since April 2008(!) - a 46 game streak. Real Madrid have already drawn 0-0 with Levante and Mallorca this season.
Conclusion: a massive trap here that could pay out - any time there's a slightly ridiculous streak on the line it's worth opposing, so even though it's a contradiction in terms of the arguments immediately above, backing 0-0 might be worth it.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The numbers I normally use indicate a 58.3% chance of a draw at half time with less than one goal being scored, which also fits the hypothesis that the second half will be the highest scoring half. However, they also indicate that although Real Madrid won't win (86%), Barcelona may not win either - Barcelona draw no bet could be worth a look, as could the draw. I don't think there will be that many goals either, but under 3.5 goals is potentially safer than under 2.5.
In terms of 'gut feeling', backing either Messi or Villa to score first and between 21 and 30 minutes as the time of the first goal might be worth a minimum stakes investment.
I'm tempted to say that this is worth watching rather than getting involved with, but with some value to be had in certain markets I don't think going overboard with staking is a good idea though. Let's hope it's a good game and at least lives up to some of the hype.
There are actually a few value markets left for Barcelona v Real Madrid, so let's try to make some sense from them. The following stats are for the last fifteen league games at Nou Camp; those in italic are for the last 20 league games where Barcelona have been at home and Real Madrid have been away.
Barcelona Win
The hosts have won the last two meetings, but those victories are the only two in the last five meetings and the hosts have only won four of the last ten - in fact, consecutive Barca victories over Real Madrid have been pretty rare recently. The last time Barcelona won consecutive games was March 98 and February 99 and - with the exception of the last two seasons - the pattern is that a draw normally follows the season after a Barcelona win. Hardly a convincing case for a Barcelona win.
Barcelona have won 17 of their last 20 home games in La Liga, but Real Madrid have only lost twice away from home in the same period and are currently on a sixteen game unbeaten streak away from home.
Barcelona Clean Sheet
Slightly clearer. Real Madrid have failed to score in nine of the last 15 games and both of Barcelona's most recent victories have been to nil.
Barcelona have kept clean sheets in half of their last 20 league games, Real have only been shut out five times in the same period - but have only lost twice when they've failed to score.
Conclusion: possible, but unlikely. Although Real Madrid have scored eight of their ten away goals in La Liga in the second half, Barcelona have conceded four of the five goals scored against them at Nou Camp in the first half and seem to be vulnerable from the 25th minute onwards.
Less Than 1.5 Goals
Only four of the last fifteen games have featured less than 1.5 goals, but that includes two of the last three. There's been an average of 2.4 goals in these games.
Barcelona have only featured in four games from the last 20 where less than 1.5 goals were scored - and they won all four. Real Madrid have featured in seven - but three were in La Liga this season and they've drawn two.
Conclusion: possible, but also unlikely - for similar reasons to those concerning a Barcelona clean sheet.
Less Than 3.5 Goals
13 of the last 15 games have featured less than 3.5 goals - the last one was a 3-3 draw in March 2007.
13 of Barca's last 20 games have featured under 3.5 goals, four of their six home league games this season have been under 3.5 but their last two games (5-0 v Sevilla and 3-1 over Villareal) have been over. 12 of Real Madrid's last 20 games have been under 3.5 goals including four of their six road trips this season.
Conclusion: this could be the way forward. It may be a safer bet than under 2.5 goals - given the firepower both sides possess, there's a chance that rather than quantity of goals, we may be looking at quality.
0-0 Correct Score
Only one game in the last fifteen (November 2002)
Barcelona have not featured in a 0-0 draw at the Nou Camp since April 2008(!) - a 46 game streak. Real Madrid have already drawn 0-0 with Levante and Mallorca this season.
Conclusion: a massive trap here that could pay out - any time there's a slightly ridiculous streak on the line it's worth opposing, so even though it's a contradiction in terms of the arguments immediately above, backing 0-0 might be worth it.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The numbers I normally use indicate a 58.3% chance of a draw at half time with less than one goal being scored, which also fits the hypothesis that the second half will be the highest scoring half. However, they also indicate that although Real Madrid won't win (86%), Barcelona may not win either - Barcelona draw no bet could be worth a look, as could the draw. I don't think there will be that many goals either, but under 3.5 goals is potentially safer than under 2.5.
In terms of 'gut feeling', backing either Messi or Villa to score first and between 21 and 30 minutes as the time of the first goal might be worth a minimum stakes investment.
I'm tempted to say that this is worth watching rather than getting involved with, but with some value to be had in certain markets I don't think going overboard with staking is a good idea though. Let's hope it's a good game and at least lives up to some of the hype.
Sunday, 28 November 2010
Sunday 28th November
Better performance on Saturday, 61% strike rate with a clean sweep on the recommendations in Croatia - next week is the last round of games there before the winter break.
Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.
Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs
Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.
Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw
Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw
Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.
Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!
Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.
Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs
Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.
Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw
Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw
Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.
Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!
Saturday, 27 November 2010
Tips For Saturday 27th November
Well, yesterday can be described in one word: ouch. Still, back on the horse and no loss chasing...here are Saturday's tips, teams in bold are worth a straight win bet, Hajduk Split are today's home banker.
CROATIA
3:00pm
HAJDUK SPLIT v Osijek
Cibalia v Sibenik
Karlovac v Zadar
Slaven v Inter Zapresic back draw at half time and under 2.5 goals for the game
HUNGARY
3:00pm
Kecskemeti v MTK - back draw at half time
PORTUGAL
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Olhanense - back draw
5:00pm
Maritimo v Vitoria Guimaraes - back draw at half time
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v FC Porto under 2.5 goals
SPAIN
5:00pm
Real Zaragoza v Villareal over 2.5 goals
9:00pm
Oppose Espanyol in both halves against Atletico Madrid
BELGIUM
7:00pm
Cercle Bruges v Germinal Beerschot
Right, I'm off to watch the rugby in Bath. Happy hunting!
CROATIA
3:00pm
HAJDUK SPLIT v Osijek
Cibalia v Sibenik
Karlovac v Zadar
Slaven v Inter Zapresic back draw at half time and under 2.5 goals for the game
HUNGARY
3:00pm
Kecskemeti v MTK - back draw at half time
PORTUGAL
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Olhanense - back draw
5:00pm
Maritimo v Vitoria Guimaraes - back draw at half time
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v FC Porto under 2.5 goals
SPAIN
5:00pm
Real Zaragoza v Villareal over 2.5 goals
9:00pm
Oppose Espanyol in both halves against Atletico Madrid
BELGIUM
7:00pm
Cercle Bruges v Germinal Beerschot
Right, I'm off to watch the rugby in Bath. Happy hunting!
Friday, 26 November 2010
26th November
Teams in bold are worth a straight win, if you only fancy one selection the team in bold caps is the one to follow.
Belgium
7:30
Genk v Gent: oppose Gent in both halves, back over 2.5 goals
Championship
7:45
SWANSEA v Portsmouth: oppose Portsmouth, back under 2.5 goals
Portugal
8:15
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: the hosts are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but have drawn more games than they've won and my numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw...so full time draw it is then.
Watching Brief:
Hungary
4:00
Lombard Papa v Debrecen
The pricing is interesting here - I think it's because reigning champions Debrecen have a reasonably good record at Papa, the hosts were beaten 5-1 at home by Ferencvaros last Saturday and Papa's other home defeat came against Fehervar/Videoton, so it's reasonable to assume Lombard Papa's poor record against top four sides is why their price is so large.
However there's no disguising Debrecen's poor away record this season - two draws, six defeats and a minus ten goal difference isn't anything to write home about and the games they lost came against sides that are currently lower than Papa, so this looks like a game that could literally go either way.
I may have a 'day off' tomorrow...doing some pre-Xmas socialising ;-)
Belgium
7:30
Genk v Gent: oppose Gent in both halves, back over 2.5 goals
Championship
7:45
SWANSEA v Portsmouth: oppose Portsmouth, back under 2.5 goals
Portugal
8:15
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: the hosts are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but have drawn more games than they've won and my numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw...so full time draw it is then.
Watching Brief:
Hungary
4:00
Lombard Papa v Debrecen
The pricing is interesting here - I think it's because reigning champions Debrecen have a reasonably good record at Papa, the hosts were beaten 5-1 at home by Ferencvaros last Saturday and Papa's other home defeat came against Fehervar/Videoton, so it's reasonable to assume Lombard Papa's poor record against top four sides is why their price is so large.
However there's no disguising Debrecen's poor away record this season - two draws, six defeats and a minus ten goal difference isn't anything to write home about and the games they lost came against sides that are currently lower than Papa, so this looks like a game that could literally go either way.
I may have a 'day off' tomorrow...doing some pre-Xmas socialising ;-)
Tuesday, 23 November 2010
Monday Results
Frustrating evening all round, but sometimes that's the game.
As soon as Sunderland v Everton kicked off it looked and sounded more like a cup tie than a league game and with two goals in the first 25 minutes under 2.5 was looking dodgy at best.
Meanwhile, to the south of Madrid, a goal from Real Zaragoza's Argentinian striker Nicolas Bertolo gave his side a half time lead for the first time this season against Getafe - although former Zaragoza striker Adrian Colunga equalised from a penalty shortly after half time and the game finished in a draw, that was the only positive result of the night.
Still, I won this week's game in the NFL fantasy league I play in (6-5 for the season) - and I'll have a team next week, which is more than can be said about former Vikings coach Ray Childress. Minnesota fitted part of the profile of potential Superbowl winners that I posted a couple of weeks ago, but their decline this season is arguably on a par with the meltdown in Dallas.
Looking back at the profile - and taking into account the two games played since I posted it - there's been some movement, but the 8-2 Atlanta Falcons are currently a very tradeable 11.5 (10/1) on Betfair. It might be worth waiting until after their game with the Packers (7-3) on Sunday before making a move.
As soon as Sunderland v Everton kicked off it looked and sounded more like a cup tie than a league game and with two goals in the first 25 minutes under 2.5 was looking dodgy at best.
Meanwhile, to the south of Madrid, a goal from Real Zaragoza's Argentinian striker Nicolas Bertolo gave his side a half time lead for the first time this season against Getafe - although former Zaragoza striker Adrian Colunga equalised from a penalty shortly after half time and the game finished in a draw, that was the only positive result of the night.
Still, I won this week's game in the NFL fantasy league I play in (6-5 for the season) - and I'll have a team next week, which is more than can be said about former Vikings coach Ray Childress. Minnesota fitted part of the profile of potential Superbowl winners that I posted a couple of weeks ago, but their decline this season is arguably on a par with the meltdown in Dallas.
Looking back at the profile - and taking into account the two games played since I posted it - there's been some movement, but the 8-2 Atlanta Falcons are currently a very tradeable 11.5 (10/1) on Betfair. It might be worth waiting until after their game with the Packers (7-3) on Sunday before making a move.
Monday, 22 November 2010
Monday Night Football 22nd November 2010
Sunderland v Everton 8pm
Looks like a low scoring game with a high draw possibility to me - Sunderland are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but Everton don't have a bad recent record against the Black Cats, they've won four of the last five meetings in the North East. Arguably the safest bet is under 2.5 goals.
Getafe v Real Zaragoza 8pm
Opposing Real Zaragoza in both halves looks like a sound strategy as they've yet to win away or lead at half time, which explains why they're bottom of the league. Having said that...I'm not sure that I've got enough confidence in Getafe winning outright, so dutching Getafe/the draw in both halves looks as if it's worth a go.
I might have a look at the Chargers/Broncos game later on, but I've got some real life stuff to attend to today and given my alarming tendency to back the wrong outcome in the NFL recently then I might just leave it...
Looks like a low scoring game with a high draw possibility to me - Sunderland are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but Everton don't have a bad recent record against the Black Cats, they've won four of the last five meetings in the North East. Arguably the safest bet is under 2.5 goals.
Getafe v Real Zaragoza 8pm
Opposing Real Zaragoza in both halves looks like a sound strategy as they've yet to win away or lead at half time, which explains why they're bottom of the league. Having said that...I'm not sure that I've got enough confidence in Getafe winning outright, so dutching Getafe/the draw in both halves looks as if it's worth a go.
I might have a look at the Chargers/Broncos game later on, but I've got some real life stuff to attend to today and given my alarming tendency to back the wrong outcome in the NFL recently then I might just leave it...
Sunday, 21 November 2010
Results For Sunday
Clean sweep, although Fehervar/Videoton left it a bit late. Monday Night Football from the Premiership, Spain and the USA coming tomorrow.
Tips For Sunday 21st November
Only a couple today, I ruled out a few after doing a quick risk v reward analysis. The teams in bold are also worth a straight win bet.
Spain:
4:00pm
Osasuna v Gijon - oppose Gijon in both halves
Espanyol v Hercules - oppose Hercules for the game
Hungary:
4:30pm
Fehervar (aka Videoton on some coupons) v Ujpest
Spain:
4:00pm
Osasuna v Gijon - oppose Gijon in both halves
Espanyol v Hercules - oppose Hercules for the game
Hungary:
4:30pm
Fehervar (aka Videoton on some coupons) v Ujpest
Saturday, 20 November 2010
Saturday's Results Are In...
Not bad, a 50% strike rate for the day with one refund.
The only failures from the recommendations were Sibenik (0)3 Slaven (1)3, Charleroi 0, Gent 2 at half time and Osijek were leading (and went on to beat) Cibalia 1-0 at half time.
I honestly didn't think that when I recommended draw no bet for Genk v Westerlo it would finish 4-4 with Peruvian striker Daniel Chavez scoring with what must have been the last kick of the game. More to come tomorrow morning.
The only failures from the recommendations were Sibenik (0)3 Slaven (1)3, Charleroi 0, Gent 2 at half time and Osijek were leading (and went on to beat) Cibalia 1-0 at half time.
I honestly didn't think that when I recommended draw no bet for Genk v Westerlo it would finish 4-4 with Peruvian striker Daniel Chavez scoring with what must have been the last kick of the game. More to come tomorrow morning.
Free Football Tips For Saturday 20th November
Rather than regurgitate the information on the 'major' markets that you can find elsewhere, I thought it might be more fun to look at this weekend's games in the smaller countries where I've been on holiday - there's often value to be had in the less exposed markets.
Inter Zapresic and Karlovac played out a goalless draw in Croatia yesterday afternoon - the half time draw bet won and dutching Inter/draw also worked.
12:30pm
Croatia
Istra 1961 v Hajduk Split under 2.5 goals
2:00pm
Hungary
Kecskemeti v Vasas - oppose Vasas
3:00pm
Croatia
Sibenik v Slaven: half time draw, under 2.5 goals for the game
Zadar v Varazdin: Zadar win
5:00pm
Belgium
Germinal Beerschot v Anderlecht: half time draw
7:00pm
Belgium
Charleroi v Genk half time draw
Eupen v Kortrijk half time draw
Lokeren v Mechelen: Lokeren win
Gent v Westerlo: draw no bet, back Gent
7:05pm
Croatia
Osijek v Cibalia: back draw both halves, two bets, not HT/FT.
Inter Zapresic and Karlovac played out a goalless draw in Croatia yesterday afternoon - the half time draw bet won and dutching Inter/draw also worked.
12:30pm
Croatia
Istra 1961 v Hajduk Split under 2.5 goals
2:00pm
Hungary
Kecskemeti v Vasas - oppose Vasas
3:00pm
Croatia
Sibenik v Slaven: half time draw, under 2.5 goals for the game
Zadar v Varazdin: Zadar win
5:00pm
Belgium
Germinal Beerschot v Anderlecht: half time draw
7:00pm
Belgium
Charleroi v Genk half time draw
Eupen v Kortrijk half time draw
Lokeren v Mechelen: Lokeren win
Gent v Westerlo: draw no bet, back Gent
7:05pm
Croatia
Osijek v Cibalia: back draw both halves, two bets, not HT/FT.
Friday, 19 November 2010
Free Tips For Friday 19th November
A couple of games worth following today.
Croatia, 3:00pm GMT
Inter Zapresic v Karlovac: back the draw at half time and Inter to go on to win the game. Two separate bets, not HT/FT.
Portugal, 8:15pm GMT
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: oppose Academica, backing the draw also looks like a good idea.
Update: Vitoria Setubal v Academica is next week...doh! Anyway, the advice still stands - it's a cup weekend in Portugal.
Croatia, 3:00pm GMT
Inter Zapresic v Karlovac: back the draw at half time and Inter to go on to win the game. Two separate bets, not HT/FT.
Portugal, 8:15pm GMT
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: oppose Academica, backing the draw also looks like a good idea.
Update: Vitoria Setubal v Academica is next week...doh! Anyway, the advice still stands - it's a cup weekend in Portugal.
Tuesday, 16 November 2010
The Redskins: Far Worse Than I Expected
I fired up NFL.com this morning and just started laughing.
Washington 28, Philadelphia 59.
Actually, that should probably say Washington 28, Michael Vick 59.
That's the most points the Redskins have ever given up at home - the last time they even came close to that was a defeat by the Bears in 1947, when they lost 20-56. Eerily, the rushing stats compiled by the Bears' Jim Keane all those years ago were similar to those that Jerome Harrison put up last night.
The 59 points the Eagles put on the board is the most they've scored on the road since October 1953, when they won 56-17 at the Chicago (now Arizona) Cardinals. In terms of points differential, it's Philadelphia's biggest away win since they spanked the Dallas Cowboys 36-3 in 2001.
Anyway, the recommendation was a bust, but if you're going to lose a bet I think it's preferable to lose by a mile.
With Week 11 coming in a couple of days, it's worth having a quick look at the standings after Week 10, especially as the bye weeks have now finished.
7-2
Jets, Patriots, Falcons
6-3
Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Eagles, Giants, Bears, Packers, Saints, Buccaneers
5-4
Dolphins, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, Seahawks
I still think the teams from the 7-2 and 6-3 groups stand the best chance of winning the Superbowl, but a couple of teams in the 6-3 group deserve a mention. The Bears finished third in the NFC North last season (which satisfies one of the conditions I mentioned here), but hats off to the Buccaneers. They were dreadful last season and their improvement this season is obvious. Pete Carroll also seems to have done a decent job at Seattle after moving from USC.
There are some massive games this weekend: Miami v Chicago on Thursday, Pittsburgh v Oakland, New Orleans v Seattle, New England v Indianapolis and Philadelphia v New York Giants on Sunday. Although there are still six regular season games left, there's still a lot to play for.
Washington 28, Philadelphia 59.
Actually, that should probably say Washington 28, Michael Vick 59.
That's the most points the Redskins have ever given up at home - the last time they even came close to that was a defeat by the Bears in 1947, when they lost 20-56. Eerily, the rushing stats compiled by the Bears' Jim Keane all those years ago were similar to those that Jerome Harrison put up last night.
The 59 points the Eagles put on the board is the most they've scored on the road since October 1953, when they won 56-17 at the Chicago (now Arizona) Cardinals. In terms of points differential, it's Philadelphia's biggest away win since they spanked the Dallas Cowboys 36-3 in 2001.
Anyway, the recommendation was a bust, but if you're going to lose a bet I think it's preferable to lose by a mile.
With Week 11 coming in a couple of days, it's worth having a quick look at the standings after Week 10, especially as the bye weeks have now finished.
7-2
Jets, Patriots, Falcons
6-3
Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Eagles, Giants, Bears, Packers, Saints, Buccaneers
5-4
Dolphins, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, Seahawks
I still think the teams from the 7-2 and 6-3 groups stand the best chance of winning the Superbowl, but a couple of teams in the 6-3 group deserve a mention. The Bears finished third in the NFC North last season (which satisfies one of the conditions I mentioned here), but hats off to the Buccaneers. They were dreadful last season and their improvement this season is obvious. Pete Carroll also seems to have done a decent job at Seattle after moving from USC.
There are some massive games this weekend: Miami v Chicago on Thursday, Pittsburgh v Oakland, New Orleans v Seattle, New England v Indianapolis and Philadelphia v New York Giants on Sunday. Although there are still six regular season games left, there's still a lot to play for.
Monday, 15 November 2010
MNF: Eagles at Redskins
I knew that the Washington Redskins have not been amongst the best teams in the NFL recently, but I hadn't realised exactly how bad they've been until I was researching their game against the Philadelphia Eagles this evening.
Any team in any sport that has only won nine of their last 20 home games isn't going to be a good one, but when you've only won eight of the last 20 games against one of your biggest rivals at home then you've got a real problem. That's the Redskins for you. On the other hand, the Eagles have won 11 of their last 20 road trips and eight of the last ten games between these two at Fedex Field. So this looks likely a fairly straightforward Eagles win to me...but guess what. No value for an Eagles win.
Happily, the points cut off is 42.5/43 and this is where there is an advantage. The last 20 games head to head in Washington have been pretty low scoring affairs (36.5 points per game) and even when the Eagles victories are looked at in isolation the average is on 38 points. Under 42.5 is also promising from the point of view of the Redskins last 20 homes and the Eagles last 20 aways, although Philadelphia road games have an average of 45.1 points - but at this point it's worth remembering that they don't play at Washington every week.
Here's the blatant promo for Betfair...I love their tiered points markets for NFL games. They've got markets for 31.5, 41.5 and 51.5 points and so the recommendation is to lay over 51.5 points on Betfair.
Any team in any sport that has only won nine of their last 20 home games isn't going to be a good one, but when you've only won eight of the last 20 games against one of your biggest rivals at home then you've got a real problem. That's the Redskins for you. On the other hand, the Eagles have won 11 of their last 20 road trips and eight of the last ten games between these two at Fedex Field. So this looks likely a fairly straightforward Eagles win to me...but guess what. No value for an Eagles win.
Happily, the points cut off is 42.5/43 and this is where there is an advantage. The last 20 games head to head in Washington have been pretty low scoring affairs (36.5 points per game) and even when the Eagles victories are looked at in isolation the average is on 38 points. Under 42.5 is also promising from the point of view of the Redskins last 20 homes and the Eagles last 20 aways, although Philadelphia road games have an average of 45.1 points - but at this point it's worth remembering that they don't play at Washington every week.
Here's the blatant promo for Betfair...I love their tiered points markets for NFL games. They've got markets for 31.5, 41.5 and 51.5 points and so the recommendation is to lay over 51.5 points on Betfair.
Mop Up Monday
Probably a good job I didn't commit to any of the scenarios I mentioned for the Steelers/Patriots game - it would have been a bad end to a satisfactory weekend. Having said that, the Patriots win shows that they are a legitimate contender for the Superbowl.
Overall, I'm actually quite pleased with what happened over the weekend. I knew that Manchester United were behind at Aston Villa but I had no idea that Fergie's men would have to come from two goals down until the game had finished. That's why I recommended separate bets on the draw being the outcome of both halves - if Villa had held on, I'd have lost the full time part of the single bet, which is what happened with Auxerre v Rennes yesterday.
The only other issue from the weekend was that it's sometimes difficult to oppose a team that you're fairly certain isn't going to win. Sporting Gijon were beaten by an 82nd minute goal from Gonzalo Higuain, but backing Real Madrid at the prices on offer didn't have any value. I eventually decided to have a tiny bet on both the Sporting Gijon win and the draw, but I may revise that strategy. Backing the draw would have worked in the Manchester City/Birmingham game on Saturday, but that's a game I thought Roberto Mancini's side would win.
It's also worth looking at some of the less well known competitions. All the bets I recommended in Hungary came up and if you count the insurance bet on Standard Liege then I got a majority of decisions in Belgium. The only real surprise was that Zagreb lost to Hrvatski Dragovoljac in Croatia but I can live with things like that - it's why I'm a fan as well as a punter.
I'll have some thoughts on the MNF game between the Eagles and the Redskins later on, but I'm off to see if there are any early bargains for this weekend's games now!
Overall, I'm actually quite pleased with what happened over the weekend. I knew that Manchester United were behind at Aston Villa but I had no idea that Fergie's men would have to come from two goals down until the game had finished. That's why I recommended separate bets on the draw being the outcome of both halves - if Villa had held on, I'd have lost the full time part of the single bet, which is what happened with Auxerre v Rennes yesterday.
The only other issue from the weekend was that it's sometimes difficult to oppose a team that you're fairly certain isn't going to win. Sporting Gijon were beaten by an 82nd minute goal from Gonzalo Higuain, but backing Real Madrid at the prices on offer didn't have any value. I eventually decided to have a tiny bet on both the Sporting Gijon win and the draw, but I may revise that strategy. Backing the draw would have worked in the Manchester City/Birmingham game on Saturday, but that's a game I thought Roberto Mancini's side would win.
It's also worth looking at some of the less well known competitions. All the bets I recommended in Hungary came up and if you count the insurance bet on Standard Liege then I got a majority of decisions in Belgium. The only real surprise was that Zagreb lost to Hrvatski Dragovoljac in Croatia but I can live with things like that - it's why I'm a fan as well as a punter.
I'll have some thoughts on the MNF game between the Eagles and the Redskins later on, but I'm off to see if there are any early bargains for this weekend's games now!
Sunday, 14 November 2010
NFL: Steelers v Patriots
Steelers look as if they'll win this one.
They've won 14 of their last 20 regular season home games at Heinz Field by an average of 10 points and six of the last ten games against the Patriots (nine of 14 all time in Pennsylvania). It's not like the Patriots have the worst road record over the last 20 games (50% wins) but they've only won three of their last ten games away from Foxboro.
Should be around 42/43 points but the bookies are looking at over/under 44.5 or 45, so on the face of it under would probably be the bet - which would be supported if Pittsburgh won, as only three of those 14 victories mentioned above have featured over 44.5 points. The average number of points in Steeler victories over the Patriots at Heinz Field is 42.
Sunday Tips
Not a bad haul yesterday, although I need to remember 'opposing' a team can mean either backing the opposition to win or backing the draw. Results round up on Monday, but there's a few worth looking at today - teams in bold stand the best chance of a straight win:
4:00
France:
Auxerre v Rennes - draw HT/FT but two seperate bets. Rennes haven't lost away from home yet.
Spain:
Racing Santander v Espanyol - back Racing draw no bet
4:30
Hungary:
Ferencvaros v Szombathely
6:00
Spain:
Sporting Gijon v Real Madrid - oppose Sporting, but be aware that although Real Madrid haven't lost at home so far this season, going into the weekend this game was the most likely in La Liga to finish as a draw.
I'll have a quick preview of the Pittsburgh/New England game in the NFL up later but my early guess will be that I don't recommend anything ;-)
4:00
France:
Auxerre v Rennes - draw HT/FT but two seperate bets. Rennes haven't lost away from home yet.
Spain:
Racing Santander v Espanyol - back Racing draw no bet
4:30
Hungary:
Ferencvaros v Szombathely
6:00
Spain:
Sporting Gijon v Real Madrid - oppose Sporting, but be aware that although Real Madrid haven't lost at home so far this season, going into the weekend this game was the most likely in La Liga to finish as a draw.
I'll have a quick preview of the Pittsburgh/New England game in the NFL up later but my early guess will be that I don't recommend anything ;-)
Saturday, 13 November 2010
Free Football Tips For November 13th
Here are Saturday's selections. Teams in bold represent a decent chance of a home win. I'll post Sunday's games either later tonight or tomorrow morning.
Saturday:
12:45pm
Premiership:
Aston Villa v Manchester United - back the draw at half time and full time (two separate bets, not HT/FT) but don't break the bank
1:00pm
Croatia:
Istra 61 v Cibalia under 2.5 goals
2:00pm
Hungary:
Debrecen v Zalaegerszeg
3:00pm
Croatia:
Zagreb (note NOT Dinamo Zagreb) v Hrvatski - Zagreb to win both halves
Hungary:
Vasas v Paksi SE over 2.5 goals
Premiership:
Spurs v Blackburn - draw at half time
Oppose Birmingham at Manchester City - I've decided to back a straight City win.
Oppose Fulham at Newcastle - dutching prices are pretty good
Wolves v Bolton back the draw at both half time and full time - similar to Villa v Man United.
6:00pm
France:
Brest v Sochaux
Bonus info: Goals per game in Ligue 1 is still really low - 2.32
7:00pm
Belgium:
Genk v Cercle - hosts haven't been behind at half time all season and have enough to win this.
Lokeren v St Truiden
Germinal Beerschot v Standard Liege - although Beerschot have a decent home record and are worth dutching with the draw, it makes sense to have a small insurance bet on Standard just in case.
Spain:
Athletico Madrid v Osasuna
7:15pm
Portugal:
Vitoria Guimaraes v Sporting Braga - dutching Vitoria and draw is the way forward as Vitoria look a bit long for a straight win; although Braga have had a disastrous run in the Champions League, they're still one of the best sides in Portugal.
Saturday:
12:45pm
Premiership:
Aston Villa v Manchester United - back the draw at half time and full time (two separate bets, not HT/FT) but don't break the bank
1:00pm
Croatia:
Istra 61 v Cibalia under 2.5 goals
2:00pm
Hungary:
Debrecen v Zalaegerszeg
3:00pm
Croatia:
Zagreb (note NOT Dinamo Zagreb) v Hrvatski - Zagreb to win both halves
Hungary:
Vasas v Paksi SE over 2.5 goals
Premiership:
Spurs v Blackburn - draw at half time
Oppose Birmingham at Manchester City - I've decided to back a straight City win.
Oppose Fulham at Newcastle - dutching prices are pretty good
Wolves v Bolton back the draw at both half time and full time - similar to Villa v Man United.
6:00pm
France:
Brest v Sochaux
Bonus info: Goals per game in Ligue 1 is still really low - 2.32
7:00pm
Belgium:
Genk v Cercle - hosts haven't been behind at half time all season and have enough to win this.
Lokeren v St Truiden
Germinal Beerschot v Standard Liege - although Beerschot have a decent home record and are worth dutching with the draw, it makes sense to have a small insurance bet on Standard just in case.
Spain:
Athletico Madrid v Osasuna
7:15pm
Portugal:
Vitoria Guimaraes v Sporting Braga - dutching Vitoria and draw is the way forward as Vitoria look a bit long for a straight win; although Braga have had a disastrous run in the Champions League, they're still one of the best sides in Portugal.
Friday, 12 November 2010
Friday Tips
All being well, this will be the first of three posts for this weekend's football, so here are today's selections:
Friday
4:00pm Hungary NB1:
MTK v Lombard Papa: over 2.5 goals
7:45pm npower Championship:
Oppose Hull in first half against Preston (ie dutch Preston or the draw), back over 2.5 goals for the game
Atlanta won last night, just about to sit down and watch it. I've got a feeling that the Falcons could go deep in the playoffs this season.
Friday
4:00pm Hungary NB1:
MTK v Lombard Papa: over 2.5 goals
7:45pm npower Championship:
Oppose Hull in first half against Preston (ie dutch Preston or the draw), back over 2.5 goals for the game
Atlanta won last night, just about to sit down and watch it. I've got a feeling that the Falcons could go deep in the playoffs this season.
Thursday, 11 November 2010
NFL Week 10: First Superbowl Prediction
Week 10 in the NFL starts tonight with a clash between two of the better teams in the league.
Both the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens have 6-2 records this season. The Falcons have won all four of their home games in 2010; the two losses the Ravens have suffered have both come on the road.
Surprisingly there's plenty of value in a Falcons win. Using my 'last 20 games' method, Atlanta are 17 of 20 at the Georgia Dome while Baltimore is 10 of 20 away from Maryland but because this is an interconference game and the Ravens are a relatively new team, there's not much to go on in terms of head to head form - in the two previous games between them, they've split the series and as the last time they played one another was eight years ago I don't think I can rely on that.
As for the total points, the bookies are looking at a cut off point of either 43.5 or 44 - and there's a decision to be made here as twelve of the Falcons last 20 home games have been over 43.5 but only six of the Ravens away games have been over that figure. Basically this bet is going to come down to how well the Ravens defence plays; so I'm leaving this one alone. Recommendation: it'll be a good game, so just watch it or record it to watch tomorrow.
On to the burning question: who's going to win the Vince Lombardi trophy in February?
Using data from the last 20 Superbowls and analysing it in the same way I've used to predict the winners of the major European football leagues, it's reasonable to take the following factors into account:
There are seven clubs that satisfy at least two of the criteria I mentioned earlier but only two of them won their divisions (Colts and Saints) and the Steelers finished in 3rd place in the AFC North despite having a winning record in 2009, but that's the same profile as the '90 Redskins, '02 Buccaneers and the '03 Patriots, who all won the Superbowl in those seasons. The Jets and the Eagles are in this group too, but that's because they had winning records last season and are in the 'right' divisions.
The clubs I'd call 'outsiders' come into contention purely because they had winning seasons last season: this group includes the Ravens, Packers and Falcons, all of whom have good records so far this season. The Houston Texans also make it into this group despite being 4-4 at the moment.
Both the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens have 6-2 records this season. The Falcons have won all four of their home games in 2010; the two losses the Ravens have suffered have both come on the road.
Surprisingly there's plenty of value in a Falcons win. Using my 'last 20 games' method, Atlanta are 17 of 20 at the Georgia Dome while Baltimore is 10 of 20 away from Maryland but because this is an interconference game and the Ravens are a relatively new team, there's not much to go on in terms of head to head form - in the two previous games between them, they've split the series and as the last time they played one another was eight years ago I don't think I can rely on that.
As for the total points, the bookies are looking at a cut off point of either 43.5 or 44 - and there's a decision to be made here as twelve of the Falcons last 20 home games have been over 43.5 but only six of the Ravens away games have been over that figure. Basically this bet is going to come down to how well the Ravens defence plays; so I'm leaving this one alone. Recommendation: it'll be a good game, so just watch it or record it to watch tomorrow.
On to the burning question: who's going to win the Vince Lombardi trophy in February?
Using data from the last 20 Superbowls and analysing it in the same way I've used to predict the winners of the major European football leagues, it's reasonable to take the following factors into account:
- 75% of the winners had winning seasons the previous year
- 75% of the winners had either won their division or finished third the previous year
- 55% of the winners came from the NFC, although seven of the last ten championships were won by AFC teams
- 40% of the winners have come from the Eastern divisions
- 25% of the winners have come from the Western divisions
There are seven clubs that satisfy at least two of the criteria I mentioned earlier but only two of them won their divisions (Colts and Saints) and the Steelers finished in 3rd place in the AFC North despite having a winning record in 2009, but that's the same profile as the '90 Redskins, '02 Buccaneers and the '03 Patriots, who all won the Superbowl in those seasons. The Jets and the Eagles are in this group too, but that's because they had winning records last season and are in the 'right' divisions.
The clubs I'd call 'outsiders' come into contention purely because they had winning seasons last season: this group includes the Ravens, Packers and Falcons, all of whom have good records so far this season. The Houston Texans also make it into this group despite being 4-4 at the moment.
So remembering that we're only just half way through the season, my ridiculously premature prediction for next February is that New England will defeat New Orleans in Texas next February. I've no doubt it'll change from week to week but let's see what happens.
Bl**dy Typical ;-)
Chelsea won the first half against Fulham, but I decided to leave the second half alone...which was the correct decision.
And - how bl**dy annoying is this - everything else in the Premiership came in. Of course I didn't I have any money on those games.
Swansea 0, Bristol City 1: let's be honest, nobody saw that one coming and I'm glad I kept away from it. So overall sitting back and just seeing how the stats compared to the real outcomes was a worthwhile exercise even though it was frustrating that it didn't pay out.
Stay tuned for a breakdown of tonight's NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons...I'll also be making the first of several educated guesses about potential Superbowl winners.
And - how bl**dy annoying is this - everything else in the Premiership came in. Of course I didn't I have any money on those games.
Swansea 0, Bristol City 1: let's be honest, nobody saw that one coming and I'm glad I kept away from it. So overall sitting back and just seeing how the stats compared to the real outcomes was a worthwhile exercise even though it was frustrating that it didn't pay out.
Stay tuned for a breakdown of tonight's NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons...I'll also be making the first of several educated guesses about potential Superbowl winners.
Wednesday, 10 November 2010
Wednesday Night: Evaluation Time
OK, hands up time.
I took a look at my spreadsheets after last night's games and I wasn't happy. There was a 50% chance of the draw in the Spurs v Sunderland game and it was plain as the nose on my face - in a red cell with white writing.
The Championship spreadsheet was also not convinced about an Ipswich win either, so I think it's time for a bit of re-evaluation regarding my game selection - so here's what the numbers are saying tonight:
Premiership:
Chelsea to win both halves against Fulham, although there's a 40% chance of a draw. So opposing Fulham looks like the way forward. That's my only recommendation for tonight, but I'll be monitoring the following games to see if I need to overhaul my system.
* Opposing Blackpool at Aston Villa also looks like it would work
* Everton v Bolton and Manchester City v Manchester United both have about 40% chance of a draw, I'm definitely looking at Everton v Bolton being all square at half time.
* West Ham v West Brom and Newcastle v Blackburn could both be over 2.5 goals, although West Brom have yet to score in the first half away from home.
Championship:
Oppose Bristol City at Swansea, although there's a 64% chance of the game being a draw at half time. I'm leaving that one alone for personal reasons though.
Let's see what happens. I've already started working on some games in Europe over the weekend and I'll be posting my selections on Friday morning.
I took a look at my spreadsheets after last night's games and I wasn't happy. There was a 50% chance of the draw in the Spurs v Sunderland game and it was plain as the nose on my face - in a red cell with white writing.
The Championship spreadsheet was also not convinced about an Ipswich win either, so I think it's time for a bit of re-evaluation regarding my game selection - so here's what the numbers are saying tonight:
Premiership:
Chelsea to win both halves against Fulham, although there's a 40% chance of a draw. So opposing Fulham looks like the way forward. That's my only recommendation for tonight, but I'll be monitoring the following games to see if I need to overhaul my system.
* Opposing Blackpool at Aston Villa also looks like it would work
* Everton v Bolton and Manchester City v Manchester United both have about 40% chance of a draw, I'm definitely looking at Everton v Bolton being all square at half time.
* West Ham v West Brom and Newcastle v Blackburn could both be over 2.5 goals, although West Brom have yet to score in the first half away from home.
Championship:
Oppose Bristol City at Swansea, although there's a 64% chance of the game being a draw at half time. I'm leaving that one alone for personal reasons though.
Let's see what happens. I've already started working on some games in Europe over the weekend and I'll be posting my selections on Friday morning.
Tuesday, 9 November 2010
Tuesday Night Football
Cincinnati 21, Pittsburgh 27
Half right again, although my assessment that Cincinnati needed to score at least 23 points to win was correct, as was laying under 50 points.
Pittsburgh's impressive run against the Bengals continues and as they meet again at Heinz Field on December 12th then I'll run some more numbers at that point. Back to association football today.
Premiership:
Tottenham v Sunderland
Sunderland have only won once in their last 20 away games and twice in their last 20 visits to White Hart Lane so opposing them looks like the way forward to me. Although seven out of the last ten games in North London have featured over 2.5 goals, neither of these teams have been prolific in front of goal in the Premiership this season and under 2.5 goals might prove a rewarding investment.
Championship:
Ipswich v Derby
Interesting game between two sides in the top six. Ipswich have a good record against the Rams at Portman Road (eight wins in the last ten games) but although they're value for the win, the possibility of a low scoring game means this also looks like a really good opportunity to dutch the Ipswich win and the draw.
There's another game in the Championship that might be worth a small consideration: Burnley v Doncaster. There will probably be more than 2.5 goals in this one, but most of them will probably be in the second half and there's a very good chance that Burnley might score one in the last ten minutes.
Half right again, although my assessment that Cincinnati needed to score at least 23 points to win was correct, as was laying under 50 points.
Pittsburgh's impressive run against the Bengals continues and as they meet again at Heinz Field on December 12th then I'll run some more numbers at that point. Back to association football today.
Premiership:
Tottenham v Sunderland
Sunderland have only won once in their last 20 away games and twice in their last 20 visits to White Hart Lane so opposing them looks like the way forward to me. Although seven out of the last ten games in North London have featured over 2.5 goals, neither of these teams have been prolific in front of goal in the Premiership this season and under 2.5 goals might prove a rewarding investment.
Championship:
Ipswich v Derby
Interesting game between two sides in the top six. Ipswich have a good record against the Rams at Portman Road (eight wins in the last ten games) but although they're value for the win, the possibility of a low scoring game means this also looks like a really good opportunity to dutch the Ipswich win and the draw.
There's another game in the Championship that might be worth a small consideration: Burnley v Doncaster. There will probably be more than 2.5 goals in this one, but most of them will probably be in the second half and there's a very good chance that Burnley might score one in the last ten minutes.
Monday, 8 November 2010
Monday Night Football
No Premiership tonight, so it's the first of two NFL games during the week.
Cincinnati Bengals v Pittsburgh Steelers
First Monday Night Football meeting since October 13th 1986. Considering they're at home and this is an AFC North divisional rivalry, the Bengals have a pretty poor record against the Steelers. The team from the Queen City have won only five of the last 20 regular season games against Pittsburgh at Paul Brown Stadium - the last time they won consecutive games against tonight's opponents was way back in 89/90. Not surprisingly, there's no value for a Pittsburgh win so it's off to Total Points land we go.
Nearly all of bookies on Oddschecker have imposed a 41 point limit on the under/over market, which is obviously based on the last twenty head to head meetings - exactly half of those games have featured a total of under 41 points. However, if we assume a Steelers win (the Bengals need to score at least 23 points to win) then only three of the last games that Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati were over 41 points; so basically Under 41 points is the recommendation - apart from Betfair, where I'd recommend laying over 50 points.
Cincinnati Bengals v Pittsburgh Steelers
First Monday Night Football meeting since October 13th 1986. Considering they're at home and this is an AFC North divisional rivalry, the Bengals have a pretty poor record against the Steelers. The team from the Queen City have won only five of the last 20 regular season games against Pittsburgh at Paul Brown Stadium - the last time they won consecutive games against tonight's opponents was way back in 89/90. Not surprisingly, there's no value for a Pittsburgh win so it's off to Total Points land we go.
Nearly all of bookies on Oddschecker have imposed a 41 point limit on the under/over market, which is obviously based on the last twenty head to head meetings - exactly half of those games have featured a total of under 41 points. However, if we assume a Steelers win (the Bengals need to score at least 23 points to win) then only three of the last games that Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati were over 41 points; so basically Under 41 points is the recommendation - apart from Betfair, where I'd recommend laying over 50 points.
Sunday, 7 November 2010
Sunday Results
Not bad, although Anderlecht had to come from behind for half the bet to win.
Hajduk Split 4, NK Zagreb 1
Result was correct, far too many goals though. A couple of interest looking games next week, the outstanding game is NK Split v Dinamo Zagreb but there's also one that could make some money. More of that one later in the week.
Debrecen 4, Szolnoki MAV 0
Bingo! I got the Lombard-Papa/Vasas Budapest game right yesterday as well, so looking at Hungary wasn't a bad idea. The winter break starts on 5th December and finishes at the end of February; the season finishes at the end of May. Debrecen are at home next weekend as well.
Anderlecht 2, Club Brugge 2
Proper mixed bag. At one point Anderlecht were two goals down, so by levelling the score they actually won the goals bet.
Cercle Brugge 0, Gent 1
A Tim Smolders penalty about 20 minutes from time screwed this one. Gent still have a pretty good home record so that's one to remember for later.Looking forward to this week - there's a lot of action in both the Premiership and the Championship and I'm going to be adding Portugal and Spain into the mix for the weekend.
Sunday Tips
I've avoided the obvious games today, so here are a few from the competitions from countries where I've had holidays.
Hajduk Split v NK Zagreb (Croatia, 3pm GMT)
Hajduk are one of two teams in Croatia with unbeaten home records; they also haven't lost at home in the league for a calendar year. Hajduk win, under 2.5 goals might be worth a look as Zagreb have failed to score in three of their last five visits to Split and the hosts have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 home games.
Debrecen v Szolnoki MAV (Hungary 4pm GMT)
Debrecen unbeaten at home in the league, Szolnoki haven't won away yet. Although a Debrecen win is likely it doesn't have any value so Debrecen to win both halves might be worth a small bet. Over 2.5 goals is also likely although that might mean Debrecen having to score three themselves as Szolnoki have failed to score in four of their six away league games this season; having said that Debrecen haven only kept one clean sheet at home in the league so far.
Anderlecht v Club Brugge (Belgium 5pm GMT)
Anderlecht unbeaten at home, lost only one of the last nine meetings between these two in Brussels. An Anderlecht win represents value, over 2.5 goals is worth a look as well.
Cercle Brugge v Gent (Belgium 7:30pm GMT)
Cercle Brugge are unbeaten at home and have only lost one of their last twenty games but Gent have won three of the last five meetings against Cercle. Form could go out of the window and Ghent will be hoping that theirs improves - they've lost their last three away games. I'm going to dutch Cercle and the draw as I don't think Gent will win.
Hajduk Split v NK Zagreb (Croatia, 3pm GMT)
Hajduk are one of two teams in Croatia with unbeaten home records; they also haven't lost at home in the league for a calendar year. Hajduk win, under 2.5 goals might be worth a look as Zagreb have failed to score in three of their last five visits to Split and the hosts have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 home games.
Debrecen v Szolnoki MAV (Hungary 4pm GMT)
Debrecen unbeaten at home in the league, Szolnoki haven't won away yet. Although a Debrecen win is likely it doesn't have any value so Debrecen to win both halves might be worth a small bet. Over 2.5 goals is also likely although that might mean Debrecen having to score three themselves as Szolnoki have failed to score in four of their six away league games this season; having said that Debrecen haven only kept one clean sheet at home in the league so far.
Anderlecht v Club Brugge (Belgium 5pm GMT)
Anderlecht unbeaten at home, lost only one of the last nine meetings between these two in Brussels. An Anderlecht win represents value, over 2.5 goals is worth a look as well.
Cercle Brugge v Gent (Belgium 7:30pm GMT)
Cercle Brugge are unbeaten at home and have only lost one of their last twenty games but Gent have won three of the last five meetings against Cercle. Form could go out of the window and Ghent will be hoping that theirs improves - they've lost their last three away games. I'm going to dutch Cercle and the draw as I don't think Gent will win.
Sunday Tips Will Be Up Soon
Due a combination of technical problems and real life (sunny day, football in the afternoon etc.) I didn't have anything up yesterday but I'll be posting headline notes later on.
Tuesday, 2 November 2010
Something For A Cold Tuesday Night?
Slightly bonkers night at Bloomfield Road last night, despite being down to nine men WBA could have nicked a point at Blackpool...but on the other hand Blackpool could have won 6-0. The last goal came six minutes from time, which pretty much fitted in with the scenario I posted yesterday.
47 points in the Indianapolis v Houston game, which shows what a lottery the total points market can be sometimes. There's a college game I've got an interest in later today but I'll probably post my thoughts on that a lot later.
Here are tonight's free football betting tips:
Having had a closer look at the League 1 games I originally picked out, I decided against getting involved. Leyton Orient probably won't get anything at Colchester but no matter what I tried I couldn't come up with any value; Plymouth v Bristol Rovers isn't really a derby - Birmingham is closer to Bristol than Plymouth is - but might be a game where 'derby logic' could be applied. So apart from a game in France's Ligue 1 that almost crept under the radar, I'm sticking to League 2 today although I'll be keeping one eye on the Champions League.
Strategy with no name applies unless otherwise stated.
France Ligue 1
Monaco v Bordeaux 6:00pm GMT
nPower League 2
Cheltenham Town v Southend United
Four of the last five league games between these two at Whaddon Road have been draws and although the Robins haven't beaten the Shrimpers on their own patch since May 2001, their home form this season has been pretty good. A low scoring game looks likely: over 1.5 goals might be a better bet than under 2.5 though, even though it doesn't look particularly good value.
Lincoln City v Northampton Town
Bottom of the table clash between these two and the bad news for the visitors is that they've not won away all season and haven't won at Lincoln since March 1992. The slightly better news is that six of the last ten games between them at Sincil Bank have been draws, so that outcome needs to be factored in somewhere. Another low scoring game, although once again over 1.5 goals might be the better bet.
Tonight's trap game:
Gillingham v Wycombe Wanderers
Wycombe's away form so far is impressive (I got taken by surprise by their win at Rotherham), but their record at Gillingham isn't. Gillingham have won five of the last seven meetings at Priestfield and haven't been beaten at home by the Chairboys since February 1994. Could be a good game but anything could happen here; could be fun to watch if you're in the Medway area.
47 points in the Indianapolis v Houston game, which shows what a lottery the total points market can be sometimes. There's a college game I've got an interest in later today but I'll probably post my thoughts on that a lot later.
Here are tonight's free football betting tips:
Having had a closer look at the League 1 games I originally picked out, I decided against getting involved. Leyton Orient probably won't get anything at Colchester but no matter what I tried I couldn't come up with any value; Plymouth v Bristol Rovers isn't really a derby - Birmingham is closer to Bristol than Plymouth is - but might be a game where 'derby logic' could be applied. So apart from a game in France's Ligue 1 that almost crept under the radar, I'm sticking to League 2 today although I'll be keeping one eye on the Champions League.
Strategy with no name applies unless otherwise stated.
France Ligue 1
Monaco v Bordeaux 6:00pm GMT
Although they're value for a win, you'd be taking a risk with Monaco , who can’t seem to score goals and have lost their last two home games – and even more so when they’re up against Bordeaux Bordeaux looks possible, but as there’s been a lack of goals in France
nPower League 2
Cheltenham Town v Southend United
Four of the last five league games between these two at Whaddon Road have been draws and although the Robins haven't beaten the Shrimpers on their own patch since May 2001, their home form this season has been pretty good. A low scoring game looks likely: over 1.5 goals might be a better bet than under 2.5 though, even though it doesn't look particularly good value.
Lincoln City v Northampton Town
Bottom of the table clash between these two and the bad news for the visitors is that they've not won away all season and haven't won at Lincoln since March 1992. The slightly better news is that six of the last ten games between them at Sincil Bank have been draws, so that outcome needs to be factored in somewhere. Another low scoring game, although once again over 1.5 goals might be the better bet.
Tonight's trap game:
Gillingham v Wycombe Wanderers
Wycombe's away form so far is impressive (I got taken by surprise by their win at Rotherham), but their record at Gillingham isn't. Gillingham have won five of the last seven meetings at Priestfield and haven't been beaten at home by the Chairboys since February 1994. Could be a good game but anything could happen here; could be fun to watch if you're in the Medway area.
Monday, 1 November 2010
Monday Night Football 1st November
Had a good holiday in the South of France, fortunately the weather stayed fine although it was bl**dy windy! Still, back to 'work' and so let's get to it.
Blackpool v WBA (Premiership 8:00pm GMT)
The type of game Blackpool need to win to stay in the Premiership. First meeting in the top tier since August 1970 (Elvis was number one with 'The Wonder Of You' if you're interested), which is also the last time Blackpool beat the Baggies in the league. Difficult to tell how this one is going to turn out although Blackpool have only won three of the the last ten meetings in the league at Bloomfield Road, so the goals market might be promising.
Here's another potential problem though. Blackpool haven't scored at home before half time and WBA haven't scored an away goal before half time, but both teams don't seem to have any problems scoring in the second half. 69% of the total goals scored in Premiership games featuring these two have been scored after an hour and both teams have either scored or conceded late goals.
Recommendation: over 2.5 goals although it shouldn't be a shock if the first half ends 0-0. This also automatically rules in laying 0-0. Wild guess: draw or WBA.
Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans (NFL, 12:30am Tuesday morning)
Far simpler to determine the outcome here, although I noticed from last month's results that my NFL picks were dreadful and so if you're reading this then add a moderate dose of caution. The Colts have won all eight games against the Texans in Indianapolis since the Texas joined the league but despite - or perhaps because of that stat - there's no value in a Colts win.
As usual the total points market is weird, with values ranging from 39 points (Betfair) to 51.5 (Bet365). The head to head average is 50.125 with five of the last eight games over that. I think Betfair may have come up with 39 points based on how these teams have performed recently rather than specifically against each other and so the recommendation is laying under 39 points on Betfair.
A full programme of games in Leagues 1 and 2 tomorrow night and there are a few decent looking opportunities that I'll bring you tomorrow.
Update 10:31pm GMT: Oddschecker got the Betfair line wrong - their over/under line is 49 points not 39. Avoid this game completely, although it'll be worth watching.
Update 10:31pm GMT: Oddschecker got the Betfair line wrong - their over/under line is 49 points not 39. Avoid this game completely, although it'll be worth watching.
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