NFL Week 10: First Superbowl Prediction

Week 10 in the NFL starts tonight with a clash between two of the better teams in the league.

Both the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens have 6-2 records this season. The Falcons have won all four of their home games in 2010; the two losses the Ravens have suffered have both come on the road.


Surprisingly there's plenty of value in a Falcons win. Using my 'last 20 games' method, Atlanta are 17 of 20 at the Georgia Dome while Baltimore is 10 of 20 away from Maryland but because this is an interconference game and the Ravens are a relatively new team, there's not much to go on in terms of head to head form - in the two previous games between them, they've split the series and as the last time they played one another was eight years ago I don't think I can rely on that.


As for the total points, the bookies are looking at a cut off point of either 43.5 or 44 - and there's a decision to be made here as twelve of the Falcons last 20 home games have been over 43.5 but only six of the Ravens away games have been over that figure. Basically this bet is going to come down to how well the Ravens defence plays; so I'm leaving this one alone. Recommendation: it'll be a good game, so just watch it or record it to watch tomorrow.


On to the burning question: who's going to win the Vince Lombardi trophy in February?
Using data from the last 20 Superbowls and analysing it in the same way I've used to predict the winners of the major European football leagues, it's reasonable to take the following factors into account:

• 75% of the winners had winning seasons the previous year
• 75% of  the winners had either won their division or finished third the previous year
• 55% of the winners came from the NFC, although seven of the last ten championships were won by AFC teams
• 40% of the winners have come from the Eastern divisions
• 25% of the winners have come from the Western divisions

Using the criteria above, the favourites should be New England. The Patriots had a winning season in 2009 and won the AFC East and their 6-2 record this season puts them well on track for another shot at the whole thing. Interestingly, the only other teams with a strong case are the San Diego Chargers and the Dallas Cowboys but they both having losing records going into Week 10 and the Cowboys collapse has been a major talking point this season.


There are seven clubs that satisfy at least two of the criteria I mentioned earlier but only two of them won their divisions (Colts and Saints) and the Steelers finished in 3rd place in the AFC North despite having a winning record in 2009, but that's the same profile as the '90 Redskins, '02 Buccaneers and the '03 Patriots, who all won the Superbowl in those seasons. The Jets and the Eagles are in this group too, but that's because they had winning records last season and are in the 'right' divisions.


The clubs I'd call 'outsiders' come into contention purely because they had winning seasons last season: this group includes the Ravens, Packers and Falcons, all of whom have good records so far this season. The Houston Texans also make it into this group despite being 4-4 at the moment.

So remembering that we're only just half way through the season, my ridiculously premature prediction for next February is that New England will defeat New Orleans in Texas next February. I've no doubt it'll change from week to week but let's see what happens.