Haasem Does The Business

Or rather he doesn't: two non-runners and one pulled up meant he came last at Brighton. I watched the race live and I don't think I heard the commentator call his name once.

I've decided that from next Tuesday, the lays will be live. There's still a few days to collect some data though so I'm picking Bahamian Lad not to win the 2.30 at Doncaster.

I've been paper trading baseball in the background over the last couple of days but I still think it's a little too early in the season to start committing cash. I currently have a 40% strike rate but as the season continues and form trends become easier to spot (and interpret) I would hope that would improve. One thing that has surprised me is how the Betfair markets react in play - similar to football but with enough differences to make further study necessary.

Only one football tip for tomorrow - Rapid Vienna to beat Kapfenburg SV in the Austrian Bundesliga. Additionally Over 2.5 goals is worth a look.

Not sure if I'm going to be posting over the weekend as I'm visiting my parents but I'll be keeping an eye on things, especially the last games in the Championship, the final stages of the tennis in Rome and both of the big golf tournaments. Oh and the Guineas, the Heineken Cup semi finals and the Kentucky Derby. And probably raindrops running down the window pane ;-)

And last of all tonight - congratulations to Fulham, who reached the Europa League final after coming from behind to beat Hamburg 2-1 at Craven Cottage. Despite beating Atletico Madrid at Anfield, an away goal by former Manchester United striker Diego Forlan put the Reds out of the competition.

A Saturday Night In May In Madrid: Bayern v Inter

Congratulations to Inter Milan, who qualified for the Champions League final despite losing 1-0 at the Nou Camp. While you might hear the usual nonsense about how no team has won consecutive Champions Leagues, is there any correlation between Champions League/European Cup winners and World Cup winners?

The only time that the same country provided both the European Cup winner and the World Cup winner was in 1974, when Bayern Munich and West Germany did the honours. There's a bit of an issue with South American teams winning seven of the thirteen World Cup finals tournaments since the start of the European Cup/Champions League, but Spain (courtesy of two Real Madrid wins and Barcelona's 2006 triumph) have had three Champions League wins in World Cup years when European teams have won it, followed by England (Aston Villa), Germany and Italy (AC Milan) with one each.

Which leads - in a very roundabout way - to the the following position: it is unlikely that the country that provides the winner of the Champions League will win the World Cup. Judging by the current odds, that's bad news for defending world champions Italy. Incidentally, there have been two German/Italian finals and Germany have won them both - Hamburg beat Juventus in 1983 and Borussia Dortmund beat Juventus in 1997

No football tips for tomorrow (Thursday is not a traditional football day as far as I'm concerned), although I hope that both Fulham and Liverpool win through to the Europa League final as it'll make odds compilation a lot easier. Moving on to the horses, Eterna finished 8th at Southwell and so the torch of losing is hereby passed to Haasem, running at Brighton in the 5:30pm.

There Were Goals...But Lyon Didn't Get Any!

I need to take to my own advice. I took the wrong direction and went with my ‘Bayern won’t keep a clean sheet’ concept rather than the ‘lay 0-0’ idea.

There was a clean sheet: Bayern kept it as they demolished Lyon 4-0 to reach the Champions League Final at the end of next month.

As for Barcelona v Inter Milan, I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen so I am going to sit back and just enjoy the game.

Imperial House (12/1) finished 3^rd in his race - which is cutting it a bit fine to say the least! 200 year old British naturalist Charles Darwin won at 16/1, proving that there must be something in his theory of evolution. Wednesday’s tip not to win is the AJ McCabe trained Eterna in the 3:40 at Southwell.

Bayern v Lyon: There Will Be Goals...But How Many?

My Will (25/1) was pulled up, you can’t really get further away from a win than that can you?

The Betfair contest was interesting…my five selections all won (although I didn’t look up the scores until I got home on Sunday), so it was a good job I had a small accumulator on them. There seemed to be a lot of confusion about the terms and conditions of the contest – it was basically a bonus promo which is fair enough. If I qualify for it that’s great but if I don’t I’m not going to lose any sleep.

Another big European week ahead, although I’m probably not going to commit any money to any of the Champions League or Europa league semi finals I’m intrigued by some of the angles. First of all, Lyon v Bayern Munich.

With Bayern taking a slim lead to France, if Lyon are to progress they absolutely have to score; their problem is if Bayern do then Lyon’s dreams of travelling to Madrid for the final are doomed. So I think there will be goals but laying 0-0 might be the way forward rather than backing any particular amount, as might be laying one or both of them to keep a clean sheet. With that in mind, Bayern would be the obvious choice - they have lost three of their last four UCL games on the road, haven’t kept an away clean sheet in the competition since they beat Maccabi Haifa in September and haven't kept one in Bundesliga away games for nine games.

Oh and before I forget, Lay Of The Day for Tuesday is Imperial House in the 5:00pm race at Lingfield.

The Lay Of Today

What a clunky title ;-)

I was going to suggest Nozic in the 3:05 at Sandown but that almost feels like picking on him, so I'm going to go for another Paul Nicholls trained horse in the same race: My Will.

The Betfair Facebook community had a competition that ran until noon UK time: pick five winners from across Europe from today's games and if all five win your account gets credited with £50. Using numbers generated by my trusty spreadsheet I've gone for Barcelona v Xerez, Inter Milan v Atalanta, CFR Cluj v Unirea Alba Iulia (top v bottom in Romania's Liga 1) , Cittadella v Mantova and Benfica v Olhanense. The accumulator price for this is about 4/1.

I've also started looking at baseball, but at the moment it's a little too early in the regular season to calculate effective odds as no team has reached the twenty home/away game benchmark I normally use. Still, I'm going to keep tabs on the second game in the Cleveland Indians series at the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics won 10-0 last night and although I can't see that happening again the As should probably win again.

Right, football, meat and beer coming up...

A Curate's Egg On St. George's Day

The big problem with laying horses is that at some point one of them is going to win - which is exactly what happened with Palace Merano (25/1) at Punchestown this afternoon. Good job it was just a trial lay because it would have put a serious dent in my bank: I'd had a run of 25 straight 'losers' at an average SP of 45/1 (if you're interested, the lowest price was 13/2) and I've been wondering all week when the next winner would turn up.

Both Mojeer and Thousand Stars lost, although the latter finished third behind Hurricane Fly and Solwhit.

Football was mixed to say the least. St. Pauli won at a canter (6-1), Kaiserslautern lost 0-1 to Hansa Rostock, Debrecen went behind but scored five goals in ten minutes to beat Kaposvar 5-1 and despite taking the lead twice (and opening the scoring after 75 seconds), Cesena lost 3-2 at home to Empoli.

Due to the potentially outstanding weather in the UK (I'm going to a game tomorrow afternoon and then off to a barbecue in the evening) I deliberately only looked at the games I could follow personally - and there's only one that might be worth a look at: Inter Milan v Atalanta in Serie A, which kicks off at 5:00pm. Inter need a win to recapture the lead from Roma and they've won ten of the last twelve meetings between these two sides in Milan. A couple of stats worth looking at: Atalanta haven't lead at half time on the road this season (Inter have only been behind once at home after 45 minutes) and there's not much chance of an Atalanta clean sheet either.

I'll post some possible lays earlyish tomorrow morning while I'm watching the Super XIV games on Sky, but I'm going to turn in now - so I'll wish you a good weekend.

St. George's Day On Friday, Still No Bank Holiday Though...

Two German football tips, one Hungarian and an Italian for Friday.

Whoever compiled the Bundesliga 2 fixture list may have done anyone interested in making a trade on Friday a big favour. The top two clubs (sleeping giant Kaiserslautern and everyone's favourite anarcho-syndicalist football club St. Pauli) have home games against teams battling relegation. The Red Devils host Hansa Rostock, who are stuck in the relegation playoff spot: a win for Kaiserslautern would take them one step nearer to the Bundesliga 2 title. Second place St. Pauli - six points behind Kaiserslautern and a point ahead of Augsburg in third - play Koblenz, who are in one of the two automatic relegation places and need some kind of positive result to keep the pressure on Hansa Rostock. I'm going to back Kaiserslautern and St. Pauli.

About 1400km south east of Hamburg is the city of Debrecen, home of this year's surprise Champions League group stage qualifiers. Debrecen are playing Kaposvar in NB1 (National Championship) in what is probably home banker of Friday night. Kaposvar are mid table and have an outside shot of qualifying for the Europa League: unfortunately they're running into Debrecen at completely the wrong time as the hosts are on a ten game unbeaten streak and have won the last five games between them at the Stadion Oláh Gábor Út. I'm picking Debrecen.

For the final footballing stop on St. George's Day, it's a 1100km trip from Hungary to north eastern Italy, where Cesena play Empoli in Serie B. Like all the other teams I'm backing, Cesena are in a great position to be promoted to Serie A for the first time since 1991, but once again they really need a win. Empoli have a chance at the promotion playoffs which would have been a lot stronger they hadn't lost twelve of their last sixteen away games; Cesena ought to win this.

Horse Racing

Some trial lays for Friday:

3.35 Wolverhampton Mojeer (Jockey Nora Looby, Trainer A.J. McCabe) - quick turnaround for a horse that came 9th at Pontefract on Monday.

4.20 Punchestown Palace Merano (Jockey D.J. Condon, Trainer W.P. Mullins) - won a couple of close ones in early 2009, but hasn't finished any better than sixth in seven outings since then.

5.30 Punchestown Thousand Stars (Jockey Miss K. Walsh, Trainer W.P. Mullins) - despite a couple of wins recently, Thousand Stars will be up agains the likes of Hurricane Fly and Dunguib.

The Thursday trial lays both lost: I'm Frank (33/1) finished 4th and Jessie's Dream (20/1) came 7th behind Quevega in the Ladbrokes.com World Series Hurdle at Punchestown.

Should hopefully have enough time to post some ideas for Saturday, but in the meantime happy hunting!

Couple Of Lays For Thursday

Bayern Munich won 1-0, hardly a classic though. I've found four possible games worth looking at on Friday evening and I'll post my thoughts on them tomorrow. For the time being here's a couple of horses that might be worth laying:

3:00 Beverley: I'm Frank (Jockey Patrick McDonald, Trainer G.A. Swinbank)

5:30 Punchestown: Jessie's Dream (Jockey D.F. O'Regan, Trainer Gordon Elliott)

Twist Magic Refuses To Race, Barcelona Refuse To Defend...

Bit of a mixed bag today: Athakeel came third in his race, Twist Magic refused to race at Punchestown (after I'd traded out before the off, which was a bit of a blessing in disguise under the circumstances) and when Maicon scored after 48 minutes to make the Champions League semi final 2-1 in favour of Inter that was the end of that!

So it was up to Brentford to provide the win today - but even that wasn't particularly straightforward as there was about seven minutes of injury time.

I can't actually find anything that fits the bill for either backing or laying so I'm leaving Wednesday's racing alone. I'm recommending Bayern Munich to beat Lyon but I'm just going to watch the game and do some prep for this weekend rather than looking for any opportunities.

Tuesday 20th April 2010

It took a while for me to determine what I should do for Inter Milan v Barcelona because it's a cup game and to a certain extent league form goes out the window.

However, with a bit of perseverance it started becoming obvious that there probably wouldn't be many goals in this one so I'm laying under 2.5 goals. My thought processes started with the idea that if Barcelona want to win in Milan they would have to score and looking at Inter's home defensive record (and taking Barcelona's scoreless draw at Espanyol on Saturday) there may not be much of a possibility of either team scoring. This also fits in with the fact that these two have already played each other in the Champions League this season and the game in Milan ended 0-0.

The other game I have an interest in is the rather more prosaic affair between Brentford v Tranmere in League 1. Tranmere desperately need a win to escape the relegation zone but they've lost their last three away games and although a Brentford win isn't a certainty I can't see the visitors winning. A Brentford/draw double chance is available for 1/3 to 1/4, the other option is to lay Tranmere at 3.75.

Monday's Football:

Former Spurs player Helder Postiga scored the winner after 70 minutes as Sporting Lisbon beat Vitoria Setubal 2-1. Vitoria were 1-0 up at half time from a goal by Collin, but two goals in ten minutes saw the hosts through.

Lay Trial Results From Monday:

3:10pm Pontefract: Flowing Cape (SP: 40/1) finished 15th
5:15pm Pontefract: Mojerr (SP: 40/1) finished 9th
6:40pm Windsor: Barberhoney (SP: 100/1) finished 7th

Having done a bit of number crunching earlier, the trial lay for Tuesday is Athaakeel in the 2:40 at Wolverhampton. I've also got a proper punt tomorrow: EW on Twist Magic in the 6:05 at Punchestown.

Trades For Monday April 19th 2010

I'll keep the biographical details at a minimum for the moment, but basically I am a looking to expand my Sports trading activities on Betfair. Let's see how I do.

Horse Racing Lays (Trial Only):

Flowing Cape (3:10pm Pontefract)
Jockey: Chris Catlin, Trainer: R Hollinshead. I've successfully laid a couple of Hollinshead's since March 22nd: SP should be about 26.00. Current lay price at time of writing: 65.

Mojeer (5:15pm Pontefract)
Jockey: Nora Looby, Trainer: AJ McCabe. Same jockey/trainer combination that I laid on Friday with Rath Maeve. SP should be about 30.00. Currently no lay price available, most recent matched back price is 42.

Barberhoney (6:40pm Windsor)
Jockey: Simon Whitworth Trainer: JR Jenkins. SP around 29.00. Currently available to lay at 110.

You can probably see why this is a trial...I'm running on a limited bank and if any of the horses above actually won their race I'd be wiped out ;-)
Football (not a trial):

Portuguese Superliga: Sporting Lisbon v Vitoria Setubal (kick off 20:15pm GMT)

I'm going with Over 2.5 Goals, might even be more than that according to my numbers. However, I've got to admit that there is one particular set of statistics that is causing me some concern and I may sleep on this until I commit any money to it. Either that or I'll make an insurance bet elsewhere just in case.
I'll be back tomorrow with happened in the racing and an attempt at determining what's going to happen in the Champions League semi-finals.