Free Tips For Sunday 10th April

A bit of an experiment today - all the games apart from Ujpest/Debrecen are low stakes bets and two of them are double chances rather than dutches as the odds are better. Helsingborg are today's possible home bankers.

Allsvenskan
3:30pm
HELSINGBORG v Elfsborg
Helsingborg/draw double chance
Result: Helsingborg 1, Elfsborg 0

Hungary NB1
4:30pm
Ujpest v Debrecen
The only trap element is that Debrecen haven't won away from home, which may be the reason for the frankly ridiculous price they've been given. Ujpest/draw double chance.
Result: Ujpest 2, Debrecen 2 - Ujpest had to come from behind twice courtesy of a brace from Estonian strike Jarmo Ahjupera.

Norway
5:00pm
Aalesund v Haugesund
Double chance Aalesund or draw,although if this game came up later in the season with the same numbers I'd be recommending a home win.
Result: Aalesund 1, Haugesund 0


Tromso v Start
Dutch home/draw
Result: Tromso 2, Start 0

7:00pm
Rosenborg v Lillestrom
Rosenborg's two defeats to start the 2011 Tippeligaen after going undefeated in 2010 have come as a shock to those that have backed for the title (ie me) and although it's far to early to write them off, another loss would be catastrophic. I'm leaving them alone until they've reached some kind of equilibrium, so this is watching brief only although I'd be surprised if Rosenborg lose today.

Moving On...Free Tip For Friday

That's three working days as far as I'm concerned, AdSense has been disabled and there's nothing in my inbox...so normal service has been resumed.

Friday
Hungary
4:00pm
VASAS v MTK
Another Budapest derby and I'm recommend opposing MTK today - Vasas have a very impressive record in the league at the Rudolf Ilovsky stadium and they're actually the most improved home team in NB1 compared to last season. MTK? Not so much. The home/draw dutch should be safe here.
Result: Vasas 1, MTK 1 - after taking the lead, MTK were down to nine men at the end due to two 'tackles' that would have earned red cards in just about any version of football I can think of.

More tomorrow, enjoy the sunshine!

Free Tips For Sunday April 3rd

Hungary
4:30pm
DEBRECEN (nap) v Gyori
Intriguing game between these two: Debrecen play like champions at home record (unbeaten at home in the last 20 league games) but like relegation candidates away; Gyori have only lost five times in their last 20 aways but have only won five road trips over the same period. This game was made for dutching home win/draw or laying Gyori.
Result: Debrecen 1, Gyori 1

Norway
5:00pm
Start (nb) v Stromsgodset
Dutch the home win/draw and back over 2.5 goals.
Result: Start 5, Stromsgodset 1. Which is what happens when you have a man sent off within 10 minutes of kickoff.

The Rosenborg/Stabaek game is actually this evening, which is fine from a 'wasn't going to get involved' point of view but rubbish if I had been. I try to check kick off times as often as possible, but I obviously need to check multiple sources.

Back tomorrow with more tips, might have some tentative recommendations for the Champions League this week.

Free Tip For Saturday April 2nd

With Greece having reached 27 games and Belgium into the playoffs, it's time to wave those competitions goodbye for this season. I'll be going back to looking at Portugal next weekend, so it's basically Croatia, Hungary, Norway and Sweden from now on, with occasional forays into the end of season action in England and possibly MLS (if I can work out what the hell they're actually doing over there).

Yes, there is only one main recommendation for today, but that's a sign that the 'winter' seasons are coming to an end. There are a lot of games tomorrow.

Hungary
4:00pm
SZOMBATHELY (nap) v Kecskemeti
There's enough here to suggest a Szombathely win without being bothered with anything else. However, in the interests of risk management Szombathely draw no bet might be better: Kecskemeti haven't managed an away draw for over 20 games and that's enough of a trap for me.
Result: Szombathely 1, Kecskemeti 0 - Peter Toth scored the winner in the second minute of injury time.

Norway
I'm expecting Rosenborg to batter Stabaek today, but the Rosenborg win price isn't worth taking so I'm leaving it alone. It'll be interesting to see what happens though.

Free Tips For Friday 1st April

It's tempting to throw some ridiculous tips in for April fool's day but I don't think anyone would notice ;-)

Hungary
4:00pm
Kaposvari v Vasas
Bit of a warning: the last time I recommended opposing Vasas in an away game with a strong favourite, they won: they're still averaging less than one goal away from home this season and Kaposvari are averaging 2.7 at home.
Result: Kaposvari 0, Vasas 1. I'll be reviewing the policy of opposing Vasas away from home as a matter of urgency as it's clearly the wrong call! 

6:00pm
Ferencvaros (nb) v Ujpest
The biggest Budapest derby: some trap elements here as Ferencvaros have lost three of their last four home games against their biggest cross town rivals, but today's game is probably Fradi's best chance of beating them for a while. Ujpest's away form this season has been awful.
Result: Ferencvaros 1, Ujpest 0

Norway
6:00pm
VALERENGA (nap) v Aalesund
I eventually managed to get a Tippeligaen preview done, you can find it here. I'm also going to recommend using a lower stake for this game as this is only Week 2 in Norway and with Rosenborg's defeat last week I think it's safe to say that things haven't exactly gone to form so far. Valerenga didn't lose at home last season and I don't think they'll lose this one - Aalesund don't like travelling to the Ullevaal (they've lost seven of their last eight there) and I don't think they'll get anything this evening.
Update: dutching Valerenga/draw is pointless, it's probably better to lay Aalesund.
Result: Valerenga 2, Aalesund 0

Sunday 20th March

Time is of the essence as I've got a busy day on Saturday...I've decided to divide this post into two sections as the Norwegian tips should be backed with smaller stakes as it's the beginning of their season.

Update: this should be interesting. I've been visiting my niece and her family and didn't get any of the bets on. Let's see what happens.


Hungary
4:30pm
Ujpest v MTK
Ujpest one home defeat this season, MTK one away win. The hosts have won the last two league meetings but MTK have won five of the last ten at the Ferenc Szusza stadium - Ujpest draw no bet.
Result: Ujpest 2, MTK 1


Greece
These are the last tips for Hellenic League this season as this is Week 27 - if Olympiakos win they're champions and apart from the relegation spots everything else looks done and dusted. I've deliberately ignored teams in the relegation zone this week.

5:00pm
Iraklis v Panionios
Under 3.5 goals
Result: 1-1


OLYMPIAKOS v AEK
Far be it from me to suggest any impropriety, but it does look as if the champions elect lost at PAOK last weekend so they could win the title in front of their own fans. AEK are no mugs, having won four of their last five road trips so I'm going to suggest the usual dutch here - because Olympiakos haven't drawn (or lost!) so far this season.
Result: Olympiakos 6, AEK 0


Panathinaikos v Kerkyra
It would take a strange set of results over the last four games for Panathinaikos to win the title and they need to win this game and hope that Olympiakos lose at home to AEK. I don't think that's going to happen - oppose Kerkyra.
Result: Panathinaikos 2, Kerkyra 1


Norway
Keep the stakes realistic as this is just the first week.
5:00pm
Odd Grenland v Start
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Odd Grenland 0, Start 2

Tromso v Haugesund
Oppose Haugesund
Result: Tromso 2, Haugesund 0

7:00pm
Brann v Rosenborg
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Brann 2, Rosenborg 1

LOL, bl**dy typcial - they all came in on the day I didn't put any of them on!

Free Tips For 18/19 March 2011

Four games to start the weekend with, one each from Croatia and England and two from Hungary. All kick offs GMT.

Friday
4:00pm
Croatia
Inter Zapresic v Istra 1961
The hosts are currently just about value for the win, but a home win/draw dutch should be fine. It's unlikely that Istra 1961 will keep a clean sheet - they've only done that once in ten away games this season.
Update: Mirko Kramaric scored for Inter after four minutes, game over after 26 minutes. Final score: Inter 3, Istra 1.

6:00pm
Hungary
FEHERVAR v Debrecen
There are a couple of subtle traps in this game - Debrecen haven't won away from home yet this season and the away side hasn't won in games between the top four in NB1 in 2010/2011. The visitors also have a decent record at Fehervar/Videoton (only lost one of the last five) but their away form this season hs been absolutely appalling - only Szombathely and Szolnoki MAV have worse records.

However...the last time the hosts won three consecutive home games in NB1 they lost the fourth, so prepare yourselves for a shock: dutch the home win/draw but be prepared for a surprise away win. Risk management appears to be the key here.
Update: Laszlo Lencse goal put Fehervar/Videoton ahead just after the hour, Adamo Koulibaly equalised about five minutes later.
Full time: Fehervar 2, Debrecen 1.

7:45pm
nPower League 2
Chesterfield v Rotherham United
This looks like an absolute bargain at the price it was available for on Wednesday morning - Rotherham haven't won at any of the other clubs in the current top seven and although this marks the start of a potentially tricky looking run in for Chesterfield, the Spirerites should win this.
Update: Chesterfield 5, Rotherham 0.

Saturday
2:00pm
Hungary
Lomabard Papa v Kaposvari Rakoczi
Over 2.5 goals, it's also possible that both teams might score but there seems to have been a decline in goals in NB1 since the restart after the winter break.

3:00pm
Hungary
PAKSI SE v Szombathely
Not quite as nailed on as it could be, because the visitors haven't won away this season (last away win 12 games ago) and although Paks are currently on a five game undefeated streak at home they're not exactly dominant. Guess what...a home win/draw dutch.

nPower Championship
Ipswich v Scunthorpe
Will Scunthorpe go the whole season without an away draw? There are only five opportunities to go before the end of the season and although Ipswich have won all six league games between these two since their first meeting at Portman Road in 1958, both teams are awful at the moment. Ipswich have lost their last three home games, Scunthorpe have lost seven consecutive away games - have a nibble on a draw, combined with 0-0 as the correct score.

Norwegian Tippeligaen
(The summer's here...word of warning: for the first couple of weeks, I'm going to be heavily relying on the numbers from the 2010 competition)
Viking v Valerenga
Over 2.5 definitely from a head to head perspective is highly likely, but I'll keep it simple to start with and recommend over 1.5 goals. Key stat: 60% of Viking's home games last season featured over 3.5 goals, as did 33% of Valerenga's away games.

4:00pm
Croatia
VARAZDIN v Slaven Koprivnica
Slaven have drawn their last four away games and Varazdin haven't lost at home all season: head to head shows that although the hosts have only lost one in the last ten at home, they've drawn four of those games. It's got draw written all over it...dutch home and draw.

Tips For Sunday 13th March

The 'Rough & Ready' system threw up the following game from the nPower Championship, but I've put a bit more analytical effort this morning.


3:00pm
Cardiff v Barnsley
The incentive for the win is leapfrogging their rivals into second place, but Cardiff's win price doesn't represent any value and there doesn't seem to be a team that's capable of challenging QPR at the top - despite multiple opportunities that have been given to the chasing pack.


The safest bet is Barnsley not to keep a clean sheet/Cardiff to score, but backing over 1.5 goals is what I'm going to go with.


Greece
3:15pm
AEK v Kavala
AEK weren't one of my favourite teams a few weeks ago when they screwed up against Aris and Panionios, but they are one of the better teams at home in Greece - having said that, Kavala have improved away from home this season and as AEK's price doesn't really represent value I'm going to dutch AEK/draw. Key stat may be that AEK have won the last six home league games against Kavala.


Hungary
4:30pm
Vasas v Ujpest
Having lost four of the last five league games at home to Ujpest, this looks as if it might be a decent chance for three points for the hosts. However, over 1.5 goals and both teams to score look more likely so I'm going with them.

Free Tips For Friday and Saturday

FRIDAY
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.


Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.


4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.

Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.

Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:

Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker

Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.

Tuesday 8th March

Blackpool v Chelsea went exactly how the numbers predicted it would (1-3), although I must admit that I thought it took Chelsea longer to score the second goal than I thought it would.

Anyway, tonight is a busy one and I'm off to a game this evening...so let's not mess about.


Tuesday
Hungary
5pm
Debrecen v Paksi SE
Back over 1.5/2.5 and don't get involved with 0-0 or outrights as there are some trap elements here. Both teams to score also looks worth taking.


Championship
All 7:45pm
Under 3.5 goals in all of the following:
Barnsley v Scunthorpe (potential home win)
Doncaster v Coventry (potential home win)
Hull v Burnley - although under 2.5 goals in this particular game would be more profitable.
Millwall v QPR
Sheff U v Nottingham Forest


Additionally, I've put this lot together using my fast and loose method, so I wouldn't go too mad with staking these: laying the away team and/or backing the home team should work in the majority of the games below. Bold represents possible home win, bold caps represents possible home banker.


League 1
Tranmere v Bristol Rovers
Huddersfield v Rochdale
Plymouth v Swindon (although looking at Plymouth's current price a home win/draw dutch could be the way forward)


League 2
CHESTERFIELD v Northampton
Bury v Morecambe
Accrington Stanley v Stockport
Stevenage v Hereford


As for Arsenal in the Champions League...the one thing that probably won't happen is that the game will finish 0-0. Over 2.5 goals looks tempting, but the challenge I've got is avoiding the score until I get home later!

Sunday 6th March

Got caught out on Saturday because the kick off times weren't 'as advertised', the only one that I missed was Gyori v Vasas - which I would have lost. Still, even that did not spoil what turned out to be an excellent day's tipping.


Greece
1:00pm
Kavala v Asteras
Back under 3.5 goals, although this is a similar sort of situation to the game between Aris and Iraklis on Saturday evening.


Olympiakos Piraeus v Ergotelis
Lay 0-0 as long as the price isn't too ridiculous, which it is for the Olympiakos win.


Hungary - watching brief only
4:30pm
Honved v Ferencvaros
Lay 0-0, but at time of writing this market was totally unexposed and as I had a late night last night and I'm not feeling particularly brave this morning (!) I'm leaving that alone. However, it looks as if there could be goals in this game, probably somewhere over 1.5 and under 3.5 but that's about as specific as I'm going to get today.


Oh and I almost forgot...
Liverpool v Man United
Avoid the outrights markets, although there might be a case to be made for the draw simply because there hasn't been one for a while and United (along with Fulham) are this season's away draw specialists in the Premier League. Can't see this being packed with goals either...and there hasn't been a 1-1 at Anfield since February 1986.

Saturday 5th March

Another double on Friday afternoon...which of these beauties is going to let the side down?

All times GMT, teams in bold represent possible home wins, BOLD CAPS means possible home banker.

Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Istra
Osijek's win price looks about right, but discount the draw at your peril - Istra won their last away game in the Autumn phase and have a tendancy to draw the next road trip; Osijek are this season's draw specialists. Osijek/draw looks like a good combo to me.

Greece
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Panserraikos
Back under 3.5 goals - all credit to the hosts, who won the Football League (2nd tier) last season and are currently in the Champions League playoff places: a tough home defence goes a long way in Greece if you don't score that many goals.

Croatia
4:00pm
Split v Cibalia
Back under 3.5 goals - you'd have to back this as the exchanges won't go near this type of market in Croatia. The visitors drew 0-0 at home on Tuesday afternoon.

Rijeka v Karlovac
Back under 3.5 goals

Hungary
4:30pm
Videoton/Fehervar v MTK
Lay 0-0 (check the market - nothing on it right now), back under 3.5 goals

GYORI v Vasas Budapest
If it was possible to lay 0-0 I would, but I'd recommend not getting involved with goal markets as there could be a few here as the visitor's away form is horrible - they kept one clean sheet in the Autumn phase and haven't won away this season. Dutching Gyori/draw also seems like a good idea.

Greece
5:30pm
Aris v Iraklis
Either back under 2.5 goals or back under 3.5 goals, although the under 3.5 goals market is better if you fancy trading it.

Additionally...using an admittedly very rough and ready way of working out prices, it might be worth looking at backing the following teams in the nPower Championship on Saturday afternoon:

Leeds, Norwich, Portsmouth, QPR and Reading.

Sunday 28th November

Better performance on Saturday, 61% strike rate with a clean sweep on the recommendations in Croatia - next week is the last round of games there before the winter break.

Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.

Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs

Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.

Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw

Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw

Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.

Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!

Tips For Saturday 27th November

Well, yesterday can be described in one word: ouch. Still, back on the horse and no loss chasing...here are Saturday's tips, teams in bold are worth a straight win bet, Hajduk Split are today's home banker.

CROATIA
3:00pm
HAJDUK SPLIT v Osijek
Cibalia v Sibenik
Karlovac v Zadar
Slaven v Inter Zapresic back draw at half time and under 2.5 goals for the game


HUNGARY
3:00pm
Kecskemeti v MTK - back draw at half time

PORTUGAL
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Olhanense - back draw
5:00pm
Maritimo v Vitoria Guimaraes - back draw at half time
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v FC Porto under 2.5 goals

SPAIN
5:00pm
Real Zaragoza v Villareal over 2.5 goals
9:00pm
Oppose Espanyol in both halves against Atletico Madrid


BELGIUM
7:00pm
Cercle Bruges v Germinal Beerschot

Right, I'm off to watch the rugby in Bath. Happy hunting!

Friday Tips

All being well, this will be the first of three posts for this weekend's football, so here are today's selections:

Friday
4:00pm Hungary NB1:
MTK v Lombard Papa: over 2.5 goals

7:45pm npower Championship:
Oppose Hull in first half against Preston (ie dutch Preston or the draw), back over 2.5 goals for the game

Atlanta won last night, just about to sit down and watch it. I've got a feeling that the Falcons could go deep in the playoffs this season.

Sunday Tips

I've avoided the obvious games today, so here are a few from the competitions from countries where I've had holidays.

Hajduk Split v NK Zagreb (Croatia, 3pm GMT)
Hajduk are one of two teams in Croatia with unbeaten home records; they also haven't lost at home in the league for a calendar year. Hajduk win, under 2.5 goals might be worth a look as Zagreb have failed to score in three of their last five visits to Split and the hosts have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 home games.

Debrecen v Szolnoki MAV (Hungary 4pm GMT)
Debrecen unbeaten at home in the league, Szolnoki haven't won away yet. Although a Debrecen win is likely it doesn't have any value so Debrecen to win both halves might be worth a small bet. Over 2.5 goals is also likely although that might mean Debrecen having to score three themselves as Szolnoki have failed to score in four of their six away league games this season; having said that Debrecen haven only kept one clean sheet at home in the league so far.

Anderlecht v Club Brugge (Belgium 5pm GMT)
Anderlecht unbeaten at home, lost only one of the last nine meetings between these two in Brussels. An Anderlecht win represents value, over 2.5 goals is worth a look as well.

Cercle Brugge v Gent (Belgium 7:30pm GMT)
Cercle Brugge are unbeaten at home and have only lost one of their last twenty games but Gent have won three of the last five meetings against Cercle. Form could go out of the window and Ghent will be hoping that theirs improves - they've lost their last three away games. I'm going to dutch Cercle and the draw as I don't think Gent will win.

Debrecen Take Control

Unfortunately time constraints mean I can't really write much of a preview for tomorrow, but here's the headline stuff:

Debrecen 3, Fehervar 2: despite going behind early once again, Debrecen established a four point lead at the top of NB1 with three games left. Still close, but they've just dispatched their closest rivals and must now be favourites to win the title. If I could find some odds to prove that I would, but Hungarian football is not a major European market.

Viva Ronaldo (14/1) finished second behind Dance and Dance at Chester, which is a bit too close for comfort IMHO. Still, the laying streak is still alive so I'm not complaining.

Tomorrow I've identified a couple of games in the German Bundesliga that might be worth taking a look at from an Over 2.5 goal point of view: the one I'd recommend would be Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt. The last three meetings between these teams in Wolfsburg have ended in 2-2 draws and 17 of Wolfsburg's last 20 home games have featured over 2.5 goals - the average goals per game at the Volkswagen Arena in that period is over four. Factor in Edin Dzeko, Grafite and Eintracht Frankfurt's Alexander Meier (42 league goals between the three of them this season) and there are definitely goals in this game. Just a case of how many!

If I get time tomorrow I'll post some more stuff but after a busy day I'm on babysitting duties tomorrow night so it might have to be Sunday. Have a good weekend.

Hungary For More?

Despite being down to ten men for most of the game after Honduran midfielder Luis Arcangel Colon Ramos was sent off, Debrecen beat Vasas 3-0...the third goal came right at the end of the second half.

I am staying with Hungarian football on Friday - Debrecen play leaders Fehervar at 6.00pm GMT in what looks like a 'winner takes all' game. Fehervar lost at home to MTK on Tuesday which gave Debrecen a one point lead with four games left to play. The numbers strongly suggest a Debrecen win - six of the last seven games between these two in Eastern Hungary have been wins for the hosts.

Stamford Blue did the honours, coming in fifth albeit it at a much higher price than I thought (33/1). Tomorrow I'll be looking at Viva Ronaldo at the 4.30 in Chester - he's done well in his previous runs at the course, but the going looks to be against him.

Will be back tomorrow with a look at what's happening on Saturday.

All Things Seem Possible In May

That's a quote from Edwin Way Teale, who you can read about here.

Back to Hungary for Tuesday's pick: it's a two horse race between Fehervar and Debrecen for the Hungarian Championship, both of them are in action and Debrecen arguably have the easier game against Vasas Budapest. The hosts haven't drawn at home this season but I'm interested in the goals in this one: in particular Over 2.5, which ought to be about 2/7 (1.28). Nine of the last ten games between these teams in Debrecen have finished with more than 2.5 goals.

The first Lay Of The Day for May is Stamford Blue in the 5.30 at Bath, should be about 11/1 or similar. He'll probably be the only thing connected with Chelsea to lose this week.

Had an interesting weekend...Rafael Nadal won in Rome, I laid Angel Cabrera and then had to trade out when he took the lead in the final round at Quail Hollow and I missed out on a few football matches but I had a good rest and that's the main thing. Looking forward to Wednesday though - loads of big games.

The best thing of all though...the £50 I won on the Betfair Facebook competition a week ago was credited into my account. From little acorns...

A Curate's Egg On St. George's Day

The big problem with laying horses is that at some point one of them is going to win - which is exactly what happened with Palace Merano (25/1) at Punchestown this afternoon. Good job it was just a trial lay because it would have put a serious dent in my bank: I'd had a run of 25 straight 'losers' at an average SP of 45/1 (if you're interested, the lowest price was 13/2) and I've been wondering all week when the next winner would turn up.

Both Mojeer and Thousand Stars lost, although the latter finished third behind Hurricane Fly and Solwhit.

Football was mixed to say the least. St. Pauli won at a canter (6-1), Kaiserslautern lost 0-1 to Hansa Rostock, Debrecen went behind but scored five goals in ten minutes to beat Kaposvar 5-1 and despite taking the lead twice (and opening the scoring after 75 seconds), Cesena lost 3-2 at home to Empoli.

Due to the potentially outstanding weather in the UK (I'm going to a game tomorrow afternoon and then off to a barbecue in the evening) I deliberately only looked at the games I could follow personally - and there's only one that might be worth a look at: Inter Milan v Atalanta in Serie A, which kicks off at 5:00pm. Inter need a win to recapture the lead from Roma and they've won ten of the last twelve meetings between these two sides in Milan. A couple of stats worth looking at: Atalanta haven't lead at half time on the road this season (Inter have only been behind once at home after 45 minutes) and there's not much chance of an Atalanta clean sheet either.

I'll post some possible lays earlyish tomorrow morning while I'm watching the Super XIV games on Sky, but I'm going to turn in now - so I'll wish you a good weekend.