Free Tips For 18/19 March 2011

Four games to start the weekend with, one each from Croatia and England and two from Hungary. All kick offs GMT.

Friday
4:00pm
Croatia
Inter Zapresic v Istra 1961
The hosts are currently just about value for the win, but a home win/draw dutch should be fine. It's unlikely that Istra 1961 will keep a clean sheet - they've only done that once in ten away games this season.
Update: Mirko Kramaric scored for Inter after four minutes, game over after 26 minutes. Final score: Inter 3, Istra 1.

6:00pm
Hungary
FEHERVAR v Debrecen
There are a couple of subtle traps in this game - Debrecen haven't won away from home yet this season and the away side hasn't won in games between the top four in NB1 in 2010/2011. The visitors also have a decent record at Fehervar/Videoton (only lost one of the last five) but their away form this season hs been absolutely appalling - only Szombathely and Szolnoki MAV have worse records.

However...the last time the hosts won three consecutive home games in NB1 they lost the fourth, so prepare yourselves for a shock: dutch the home win/draw but be prepared for a surprise away win. Risk management appears to be the key here.
Update: Laszlo Lencse goal put Fehervar/Videoton ahead just after the hour, Adamo Koulibaly equalised about five minutes later.
Full time: Fehervar 2, Debrecen 1.

7:45pm
nPower League 2
Chesterfield v Rotherham United
This looks like an absolute bargain at the price it was available for on Wednesday morning - Rotherham haven't won at any of the other clubs in the current top seven and although this marks the start of a potentially tricky looking run in for Chesterfield, the Spirerites should win this.
Update: Chesterfield 5, Rotherham 0.

Saturday
2:00pm
Hungary
Lomabard Papa v Kaposvari Rakoczi
Over 2.5 goals, it's also possible that both teams might score but there seems to have been a decline in goals in NB1 since the restart after the winter break.

3:00pm
Hungary
PAKSI SE v Szombathely
Not quite as nailed on as it could be, because the visitors haven't won away this season (last away win 12 games ago) and although Paks are currently on a five game undefeated streak at home they're not exactly dominant. Guess what...a home win/draw dutch.

nPower Championship
Ipswich v Scunthorpe
Will Scunthorpe go the whole season without an away draw? There are only five opportunities to go before the end of the season and although Ipswich have won all six league games between these two since their first meeting at Portman Road in 1958, both teams are awful at the moment. Ipswich have lost their last three home games, Scunthorpe have lost seven consecutive away games - have a nibble on a draw, combined with 0-0 as the correct score.

Norwegian Tippeligaen
(The summer's here...word of warning: for the first couple of weeks, I'm going to be heavily relying on the numbers from the 2010 competition)
Viking v Valerenga
Over 2.5 definitely from a head to head perspective is highly likely, but I'll keep it simple to start with and recommend over 1.5 goals. Key stat: 60% of Viking's home games last season featured over 3.5 goals, as did 33% of Valerenga's away games.

4:00pm
Croatia
VARAZDIN v Slaven Koprivnica
Slaven have drawn their last four away games and Varazdin haven't lost at home all season: head to head shows that although the hosts have only lost one in the last ten at home, they've drawn four of those games. It's got draw written all over it...dutch home and draw.

Free Tips For Friday and Saturday

FRIDAY
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.


Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.


4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.

Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.

Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:

Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker

Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.

Saturday 5th March

Another double on Friday afternoon...which of these beauties is going to let the side down?

All times GMT, teams in bold represent possible home wins, BOLD CAPS means possible home banker.

Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Istra
Osijek's win price looks about right, but discount the draw at your peril - Istra won their last away game in the Autumn phase and have a tendancy to draw the next road trip; Osijek are this season's draw specialists. Osijek/draw looks like a good combo to me.

Greece
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Panserraikos
Back under 3.5 goals - all credit to the hosts, who won the Football League (2nd tier) last season and are currently in the Champions League playoff places: a tough home defence goes a long way in Greece if you don't score that many goals.

Croatia
4:00pm
Split v Cibalia
Back under 3.5 goals - you'd have to back this as the exchanges won't go near this type of market in Croatia. The visitors drew 0-0 at home on Tuesday afternoon.

Rijeka v Karlovac
Back under 3.5 goals

Hungary
4:30pm
Videoton/Fehervar v MTK
Lay 0-0 (check the market - nothing on it right now), back under 3.5 goals

GYORI v Vasas Budapest
If it was possible to lay 0-0 I would, but I'd recommend not getting involved with goal markets as there could be a few here as the visitor's away form is horrible - they kept one clean sheet in the Autumn phase and haven't won away this season. Dutching Gyori/draw also seems like a good idea.

Greece
5:30pm
Aris v Iraklis
Either back under 2.5 goals or back under 3.5 goals, although the under 3.5 goals market is better if you fancy trading it.

Additionally...using an admittedly very rough and ready way of working out prices, it might be worth looking at backing the following teams in the nPower Championship on Saturday afternoon:

Leeds, Norwich, Portsmouth, QPR and Reading.

200th Post: Friday's Tips

Couple of games in Eastern Europe this afternoon - bold indicates likely home win, bold caps indicates likely home banker.

Croatia
4:00pm
Inter Zapresic v NK Zagreb
A possible home win, but once again that's not why I'm interested. According to a couple of sets of numbers I've run, this game is around 55-60% to finish with under 2.5 goals being scored and 75-85% to finish with under 3.5 goals being scored. Take your pick.

Hungary
4:00pm
KECSKEMETI v Debrecen
Key stat: 2.99 goals per game in NB1.
Key pronunciation: Kutch-KUH-mayti, Deh-BRET-sen

It's goals again in this one though - over 2.5 goals. There's been at least one goal in Kecskemeti's last 20 home league games and they've scored in 19 of them: the only aspect of Debrecen's performance I'd be worried about is that they've failed to score in four of their seven away games this season so the hosts might have to do all the work themselves: a nibble at a Kecskemeti win might be a good idea too as despite being a top five team, Debrecen's away form is horrible.

Tuesday Tips

I'll start this post with a moan and some information: the lack of draws in the games below mean that backing a tie in both of them could result in a nice payout. That's the information: this is the moan.

I'm giving up with Portuguese football for a while - unless you're backing the big three to win every week at stupid prices, the Liga Sagres is completely inconsistent from week to week. That alone might make it exciting to follow and the lack of goals is more or less guaranteed, I did the accounts last night (after the Naval/Braga game) and Portuguese football is basically a money pit for me.


Croatia
2:00pm
CIBALIA v Zadar
Cibalia are far too short to consider backing, especially as they've not drawn at home this season and Zadar haven't drawn away. However, the put this game into perspective, Cibalia have only lost once in the twelve games they've played at Stadion Cibalia since they last drew there and Zadar have lost twelve of their fourteen games since they last drew away.


Recommendation: over 1.5 goals and under 3.5 looks about right, as does Cibalia keeping a clean sheet. The problem is that this game is chronically unexposed and it may be worth checking the markets before kick off to see if there's any interest at all...which I've just done. There isn't. Have £1 (or local equivalent) on the draw.

Update: off to a winning start in March...finished 0-0.


nPower Championship
7:45pm
Portsmouth v Scunthorpe
Beware the draw - Scunthorpe haven't had one on the road since December 2009, but having lost their last five away games in the Championship without scoring a goal it probably goes without saying that drawing at a ground where they've not won since February 1964 may be beyond them. I find it hard to believe that they won't draw one away game this season and it might be this one - straight dutch could do the trick.


As for Manchester United and Chelsea, although the hosts have gone backwards at home this season, United haven't won at Stamford Bridge for over a decade in the league and I'll be surprised if they do tonight. Low scoring game, possibly a draw. The big question is will Ashley Cole be on target today?

Weekend Tips

Only catch up games in Belgium this week and we welcome back Croatia and Hungary from their winter breaks, although there's only one game worth looking at in Croatia. I looked at all of them and either Hajduk Split or Dinamo Zagreb are too short to be worth bothering with or there are no clear trends: sometimes that's the way it is.

As usual, teams in bold are possible wins, teams in BOLD CAPS are possible home bankers.


Friday
Hungary
6:00pm
FERENCVAROS v Kecskemeti
One of the weird aspects of this game is how unlikely a draw might be - Ferencvaros didn't draw at home during the first phase (12 since last home draw), Kecskemeti didn't draw away (18 since last away draw). The hosts are on a four game home winning streak in the league so we'll go with them; they need a morale boost at the moment due to experiencing financial difficulties again and I can tell you from personal experience that when the Florian Albert Stadium is full, it's an incredibly intimidating place for the opposition.


8:15pm
Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica
Academica are currently on a three game losing streak on the road while Vitoria are one of the more improved home teams this season. If the visitors lose it again like they did last Saturday then laying them could pay out. Trying to be professional here but Academica really annoyed me last weekend and I hope they lose ;-)

Saturday
Hungary
3pm
ZALAEGERSZEGI v Szombathely
The current top three won all six games against the current bottom three in the opening stage and although the current price may not look like it, it represents value.


Greece
3:15pm
Iraklis v Xanthi
This game should have less than 2.5 goals in it but the price is too low and in actual fact laying Xanthi is a better idea as Iraklis have only lost three times in the last 20 home games in the league. Last year was the first time Xanthi had won at Iraklis for over 15 years.


Croatia
4:00pm
Istra v Hrvatski
Hrvatski are on their way back to 2.HNL but Istra can still save themselves from relegation, even though the bottom four are going down this season. Oppose Hrvatski as a starting point as I'm not 100% sure that Istra have the goals to win this.


Portugal
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Vitoria Setubal
Straight Dutch (Pacos win/draw), although the draw might stand a better chance of paying out. Vitoria unlikely to keep a clean sheet and a scoring less than one goal away from home this season.


Portugal
8:15pm
Olhanense v Porto
Under 3.5 goals - arguably the most interesting game in Portugal this weekend as unbeaten Olhanense (unbeaten at home this season) entertain the runaway leaders. One of the reasons the hosts may be unbeaten is that this is only the second home game they've played against the big three (2-2 draw with Sporting Lisbon last time out) and although Olhanense's defence will be tested by Porto, this still looks like a low scoring game


Sunday
Greece
3:15pm
PAOK* v Kavala
Going back to 1994, PAOK have won all six games without scoring a goal; a home win is still possible, but I'd be a bit hesitant about backing a PAOK clean sheet as they've only kept two at home this season; Kavala have scored in eight of their eleven away games this season.
*Not a home banker, these are just the initials.


Hungary
3:30pm
Vasas Budapest v Fehervar
Over 2.5 goals - always worth remembering that NB1 is a very goal friendly league, despite it being the lowest ranked league I'm familiar with. Yes, lower than the Veikkausliiga.


Portugal
6:00pm
BEIRA MAR v Portimonense
Lay Portimonense - haven't won away all season, haven't won at Beira Mar in the last four visits. Be cautious if backing the hosts though as Portimonense are making everyone look better because they're so bad.


Greece
7:00pm
Panionios v Olympiakos
Originally came up as a low goals recommendation, but this is about as nailed on as an away win can get, especially as Olympiakos tend to take their shooting boots to what's basically a home game for them.

Tips For December 4th

Main one is don't go out unless you have to!

Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.

Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves

Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals

Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.

Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.

UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.

Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.

I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.

The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.

I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.

Free Tip For Friday December 3rd

It's the final weekend before the winter break in both Croatia and Hungary this weekend - neither of them restart until the last weekend in February(!), so there'll be plenty of time for me to do some analysis on how both leagues are shaping up before they start playing again. I'm thinking of adding a PDF for each to the blog in the near future, but I'll post when they're available.

There's only one game worth looking at on Friday afternoon in Croatia and Inter Zaprešić v Cibalia (3:00pm GMT) isn't going to be a classic. The weather will be zero degrees and snowing at kickoff time, it's the last game before Christmas and neither of these teams are what you might call prolific in front of goal. Zaprešić's eight home games this season have produced a grand total of eighteen goals, while there have been only 11 goals in Cibalia's eight away games, so it's hardly a huge surprise that I'm recommending under 2.5 goals.

In keeping with the last couple of weekends, I'll be posting some tips from the less exposed European Leagues over the next few days and for the first time this season I'll be including Greece.

Sunday 28th November

Better performance on Saturday, 61% strike rate with a clean sweep on the recommendations in Croatia - next week is the last round of games there before the winter break.

Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.

Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs

Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.

Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw

Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw

Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.

Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!

Tips For Saturday 27th November

Well, yesterday can be described in one word: ouch. Still, back on the horse and no loss chasing...here are Saturday's tips, teams in bold are worth a straight win bet, Hajduk Split are today's home banker.

CROATIA
3:00pm
HAJDUK SPLIT v Osijek
Cibalia v Sibenik
Karlovac v Zadar
Slaven v Inter Zapresic back draw at half time and under 2.5 goals for the game


HUNGARY
3:00pm
Kecskemeti v MTK - back draw at half time

PORTUGAL
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Olhanense - back draw
5:00pm
Maritimo v Vitoria Guimaraes - back draw at half time
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v FC Porto under 2.5 goals

SPAIN
5:00pm
Real Zaragoza v Villareal over 2.5 goals
9:00pm
Oppose Espanyol in both halves against Atletico Madrid


BELGIUM
7:00pm
Cercle Bruges v Germinal Beerschot

Right, I'm off to watch the rugby in Bath. Happy hunting!

Free Football Tips For Saturday 20th November

Rather than regurgitate the information on the 'major' markets that you can find elsewhere, I thought it might be more fun to look at this weekend's games in the smaller countries where I've been on holiday - there's often value to be had in the less exposed markets.

Inter Zapresic and Karlovac played out a goalless draw in Croatia yesterday afternoon - the half time draw bet won and dutching Inter/draw also worked.


12:30pm
Croatia
Istra 1961 v Hajduk Split under 2.5 goals


2:00pm
Hungary
Kecskemeti v Vasas - oppose Vasas


3:00pm
Croatia
Sibenik v Slaven: half time draw, under 2.5 goals for the game
Zadar v Varazdin: Zadar win


5:00pm
Belgium
Germinal Beerschot v Anderlecht: half time draw

7:00pm
Belgium
Charleroi v Genk half time draw
Eupen v Kortrijk half time draw
Lokeren v Mechelen: Lokeren win
Gent v Westerlo: draw no bet, back Gent


7:05pm
Croatia
Osijek v Cibalia: back draw both halves, two bets, not HT/FT.

Free Tips For Friday 19th November

A couple of games worth following today.

Croatia, 3:00pm GMT
Inter Zapresic v Karlovac: back the draw at half time and Inter to go on to win the game. Two separate bets, not HT/FT.

Portugal, 8:15pm GMT
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: oppose Academica, backing the draw also looks like a good idea.
Update: Vitoria Setubal v Academica is next week...doh! Anyway, the advice still stands - it's a cup weekend in Portugal.

Sunday Tips

I've avoided the obvious games today, so here are a few from the competitions from countries where I've had holidays.

Hajduk Split v NK Zagreb (Croatia, 3pm GMT)
Hajduk are one of two teams in Croatia with unbeaten home records; they also haven't lost at home in the league for a calendar year. Hajduk win, under 2.5 goals might be worth a look as Zagreb have failed to score in three of their last five visits to Split and the hosts have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 home games.

Debrecen v Szolnoki MAV (Hungary 4pm GMT)
Debrecen unbeaten at home in the league, Szolnoki haven't won away yet. Although a Debrecen win is likely it doesn't have any value so Debrecen to win both halves might be worth a small bet. Over 2.5 goals is also likely although that might mean Debrecen having to score three themselves as Szolnoki have failed to score in four of their six away league games this season; having said that Debrecen haven only kept one clean sheet at home in the league so far.

Anderlecht v Club Brugge (Belgium 5pm GMT)
Anderlecht unbeaten at home, lost only one of the last nine meetings between these two in Brussels. An Anderlecht win represents value, over 2.5 goals is worth a look as well.

Cercle Brugge v Gent (Belgium 7:30pm GMT)
Cercle Brugge are unbeaten at home and have only lost one of their last twenty games but Gent have won three of the last five meetings against Cercle. Form could go out of the window and Ghent will be hoping that theirs improves - they've lost their last three away games. I'm going to dutch Cercle and the draw as I don't think Gent will win.

Trendspotting In Europe

With ten games gone in quite a few competitions across Europe, it's worth taking a look at how things are panning out in some of them in order to see if there any any trends developing that might be worth exploiting. To keep my workload down, in the long term I might limit myself to countries that where I've had holidays.

Belgium:

Massive improvement from unbeaten leaders Genk has given them a five point lead over Anderlecht. At the bottom AS Eupen have lost nine of their first ten games and should probably be opposed each time they play: their next game is at home to St. Truiden on 16th October.

Genk have won the title before, but the winner of the 2010/11 edition of the competition will still probably be either Anderlecht or Club Brugge, although the playoff format adopted in Belgium sometimes throws up unexpected winners. In that case, Gent can't be totally ruled out either.

Holiday report: went to Bruges a few years ago, not really a great deal to do apart from sample the fantastic range of beer and chocolate and go on boat trips, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The battlefield tour in and around Ypres puts a lot of things into perspective.

Croatia:

Dinamo Zagreb, Hajduk Split and newly promoted RNK Split have all started well, at the bottom Hrvatski Dragovoljac and Istra 1961 look vulnerable already: Hrvatski were promoted last season and might not be up to the challenge. This competition has been dominated by Dinamo Zagreb (ten wins since 1992 and five consecutive wins) then if you can still get a decent price for them it's worth taking. Hajduk Split (the only club from outside Zagreb to win the title since the war finished) are also contenders. Bit of a health warning with Croatian football though: there have been some dodgy dealings in the past although a series of high profile stings may have put paid to that.

Holiday report: stayed on the Adriatic coast north of Split for a fortnight, not many Brits there but I was told how well I spoke English(!) which is spoken pretty widely, mainly because people from all over Europe go there. The locals seem to worship Italians and if you're a fan of meat and potatoes you can't go wrong with the food; beer and wine is good quality and cheap.

There are a number of European leagues that are currently featuring over 3.5 goals per game. For the sake of brevity, I'll just list the major ones but I'll be coming back to Portugal and Greece in the following weeks:

Swiss Super League (ten games gone, some teams have played eleven)

No real surprise here as this competition and the Austrian Bundesliga normally feature tons of goals. Of the ten teams in the competition, only Young Boys are currently averaging less than 2.5 per game. Leaders Luzern are averaging exactly four goals per game at the moment: their next game is 22nd October at Neuchatel Xamax which looks as if it should be over 3.5 but more of that game nearer the time.

Bundesliga 1 (seven games gone)

Surprisingly, Bayern Munich are having problems hitting the net.

Dutch Eredivisie (eight games gone)

Only two teams under 2.5 goals per game

If you don't want to see goals, try the following competitions:

Polish Extraklasa (eight games in) - Arka Gdynia are the main culprits

Portuguese Super League (seven games) - very goal shy competition

Greece 1 (five games) - particularly Aris and Larissa

Serbia Super Liga (seven games) - an incredible 1.56 GPG at the moment!