It's opening day in Major League Baseball and as you might expect, being a fan of some American sports I'm pretty excited. Unfortunately I've not had enough time to come up with any sort of preview for the National League, but here's my take on the American League:
Eastern Division
Will probably come down to the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays - and the current lay price for the Red Sox is extremely tempting. Laying the Red Sox and then backing the Yankees and Rays looks like a really good play.
Central Division
Dutch the Twins and White Sox to win and lay Detroit.
West Division
Declaration of personal interest: I am an Oakland fan. That being said, this is a three horse race between Oakland, Texas and the Angels. I'm not going to bet on Oakland this season, but I'm happy to recommend dutching Oakland and Texas.
ALCS
I'm going to keep clear of any ALCS predictions until 40 games have been played.
Today's Games:
OK, this is where the fun starts. These recommendations are based on my football system, but as there can't be a tie in a baseball game then everything is simpler yet somehow more complicated. All the teams in yellow had a winning record at home in 2010 and all their opponents had a losing record on the road. So yes, that means I'm recommending the Nationals over the Braves, but I'm also recommending that minimum stakes should be applied for the time being.
First pich times in GMT in green - I'm following the football convention of naming the home team first.
6:05pm
Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves
(the Nationals have won seven of the last ten games against the Braves at Nationals Park, but have lost their last five home openers...it's a risk, but it might pay off)
Result: Nationals 0, Braves 2
NY YANKEES (nap) v Detroit Tigers
Result: Yankees 6, Tigers 3
7:10pm
Cincinnati Reds (nb) v Milwaukee Brewers
Result: Reds 7, Brewers 6 - Ramon Hernandez hit a three run homer at the bottom of the ninth to give the Reds the win! Exciting finish!
9:15pm
St. Louis Cardinals v San Diego Padres
Result: Cardinals 3, Padres 5 (extra innings) - Cardinals looked as if they'd won it, but there you go.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Thursday, 31 March 2011
Wednesday, 30 March 2011
Free Tip Accrington Stanley v Hereford
nPower League 2
7:45pm
Accrington Stanley v Hereford
Hereford have won the last two league games at the Crown Ground and although Accrington have won five consecutive league games, Hereford recently won five consecutive aways and may be a better side than their league position suggests. It's either feast or famine with these two and so I'm going to recommend Accrington draw no bet.
Long term, I'm wondering if Accrington might not be in the mix for promotion next season - their home record over the last 20 games is 12-4-4 but they need to make the transition from difficult to beat to promotion standard, which usually means an improvement in away form.
Result: Accrington Stanley 4, Hereford 0
7:45pm
Accrington Stanley v Hereford
Hereford have won the last two league games at the Crown Ground and although Accrington have won five consecutive league games, Hereford recently won five consecutive aways and may be a better side than their league position suggests. It's either feast or famine with these two and so I'm going to recommend Accrington draw no bet.
Long term, I'm wondering if Accrington might not be in the mix for promotion next season - their home record over the last 20 games is 12-4-4 but they need to make the transition from difficult to beat to promotion standard, which usually means an improvement in away form.
Result: Accrington Stanley 4, Hereford 0
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 29th March
Three games caught my attention, it'll come as no surprise that two of tonight's away teams are rubbish. All kick offs are 7:45pm GMT.
nPower League 1
Dagenham v Brighton
Under 3.5 goals. Brighton have kept three consecutive away clean sheets in League 1 and have a ten point lead over Huddersfield: their last four aways have finished 1-0 and although Dagenham can usually find the back of the net at home (they've not been shut out at home for seven games) they're up against a team that is literally a different class.
Result: Dagenham 0, Brighton 1
EXETER (nap) v Swindon
The only probable here is that Swindon won't win. The visitors have had the best of it in Devon over the last ten meetings (an amazing five wins and four draws) so this is actually the best chance that Exeter have of beating Swindon since April 1980. Will they do it? Who knows, I'm only interested in Swindon not winning. Dutch Exeter/draw and possibly have a nibble on a correct score of 1-1.
LUNCHTIME UPDATE: the markets are moving away from an Exeter win to a draw - the main reason appears to be because Exeter will have two of their first team defenders suspended.
Result: Exeter 1, Swindon 0. To paraphrase Private Wilson from 'Dad's Army', Swindon are 'doomed!'
nPower League 2
Port Vale (nb) v Lincoln
A quick return to Vale Park after last Saturday's 0-0 draw with Bury, which I am no longer angry about. Tonight the hosts entertain Lincoln City, who were thumped 6-0 at home last week but - like Swindon at Exeter - have a weirdly impressive record at Port Vale. However, last season Port Vale won this game 4-0 and although I don't think it's going to be that one sided, I can't see Port Vale losing. Oppose Lincoln however you like.
Result: Port Vale 2, Lincoln 1
Back tomorrow for Accrington Stanley v Hereford.
nPower League 1
Dagenham v Brighton
Under 3.5 goals. Brighton have kept three consecutive away clean sheets in League 1 and have a ten point lead over Huddersfield: their last four aways have finished 1-0 and although Dagenham can usually find the back of the net at home (they've not been shut out at home for seven games) they're up against a team that is literally a different class.
Result: Dagenham 0, Brighton 1
EXETER (nap) v Swindon
The only probable here is that Swindon won't win. The visitors have had the best of it in Devon over the last ten meetings (an amazing five wins and four draws) so this is actually the best chance that Exeter have of beating Swindon since April 1980. Will they do it? Who knows, I'm only interested in Swindon not winning. Dutch Exeter/draw and possibly have a nibble on a correct score of 1-1.
LUNCHTIME UPDATE: the markets are moving away from an Exeter win to a draw - the main reason appears to be because Exeter will have two of their first team defenders suspended.
Result: Exeter 1, Swindon 0. To paraphrase Private Wilson from 'Dad's Army', Swindon are 'doomed!'
nPower League 2
Port Vale (nb) v Lincoln
A quick return to Vale Park after last Saturday's 0-0 draw with Bury, which I am no longer angry about. Tonight the hosts entertain Lincoln City, who were thumped 6-0 at home last week but - like Swindon at Exeter - have a weirdly impressive record at Port Vale. However, last season Port Vale won this game 4-0 and although I don't think it's going to be that one sided, I can't see Port Vale losing. Oppose Lincoln however you like.
Result: Port Vale 2, Lincoln 1
Back tomorrow for Accrington Stanley v Hereford.
Sunday, 27 March 2011
Free Tips For Sunday 27th March
A bit disappointed with yesterday, I can cope with the outliers (Leyton Orient and Stevenage) but getting Port Vale and Bury wrong was a case of not thinking it through. Still, today's another day and here are my recommendations.
nPower League 2
3:00pm
Oxford United v Burton Albion
Oxford ought to get into the not losing at home: arguably it's their lack of home draws that's going to keep them from reaching the playoffs in their first season back in the Football League. They've not drawn any games with the current bottom six this season and although Burton are a few games behind everyone else at the foot of the table, they're also in that position on form as well - two wins in their last ten away games.
Recommendation: Oxford draw no bet will produce a better return so I'm going for that.
Result: Oxford 3, Burton 0. Burton also had two men sent off.
nPower League 1
4:00pm
HUDDERSFIELD v Notts County
I was originally looking at this from a total goals point of view, but it quickly became apparent that the usual dutching strategy would work. If the hosts win they'll have a gap between themselves and Peterborough and be in a commanding position for the second automatic promotion spot. Notts could still find themselves in relegation trouble but they've only lost four of their last ten aways and have a reasonably tough defence: Huddersfield haven't exactly been banging the goals in either.
Recommendation: dutch home win/draw
Result: Huddersfield 3, Notts County 0
There are a lot of catch up games in the lower leagues in England this week, I'll do my best to keep on top of them. There'll definitely be a post towards the end of next week, the Allsvenskan starts and it's Week 2 in Norway.
nPower League 2
3:00pm
Oxford United v Burton Albion
Oxford ought to get into the not losing at home: arguably it's their lack of home draws that's going to keep them from reaching the playoffs in their first season back in the Football League. They've not drawn any games with the current bottom six this season and although Burton are a few games behind everyone else at the foot of the table, they're also in that position on form as well - two wins in their last ten away games.
Recommendation: Oxford draw no bet will produce a better return so I'm going for that.
Result: Oxford 3, Burton 0. Burton also had two men sent off.
nPower League 1
4:00pm
HUDDERSFIELD v Notts County
I was originally looking at this from a total goals point of view, but it quickly became apparent that the usual dutching strategy would work. If the hosts win they'll have a gap between themselves and Peterborough and be in a commanding position for the second automatic promotion spot. Notts could still find themselves in relegation trouble but they've only lost four of their last ten aways and have a reasonably tough defence: Huddersfield haven't exactly been banging the goals in either.
Recommendation: dutch home win/draw
Result: Huddersfield 3, Notts County 0
There are a lot of catch up games in the lower leagues in England this week, I'll do my best to keep on top of them. There'll definitely be a post towards the end of next week, the Allsvenskan starts and it's Week 2 in Norway.
Saturday, 26 March 2011
Free Tips For Saturday 26th March
Saturday's tips for the lower divisions in England - the kick off times are all 1:00pm so everyone can go to the pub afterwards to watch England beat Wales.
nPower League 1
1:00pm
BOURNEMOUTH (nap) v Charlton
It looks wrong, doesn't it? If I remember rightly a few years ago these two were at opposite ends of the league. Anyway, Charlton have lost two of their four games at the current top six this season and they're currently on a four game away losing streak. Although Bournemouth lost their last home game, each time they've lost at Dean Court in the league this season they've won the next game.
Result: Bournemouth 2, Charlton 2
Leyton Orient (nb) v Yeovil
Now this is a bit more like it. Yeovil aren't totally out of the woods at the bottom of League 1 while any slip ups from Bournemouth (see above) would mean that Leyton Orient could easily overtake them and end up in the play offs. The hosts haven't lost at home in the league for 14 games and I can't see them losing this one either.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Yeovil 5 - when you're down to ten men after fourteen minutes this is exactly the sort of thing that happens.
Watching Brief Only
Brighton v Swindon
This is a classic end of season trap game - Brighton are undefeated at home and are ten points clear of the competition with ten games left. Swindon have got to start picking up points over the next few games otherwise they'll have gone from the play offs last season to relegation this season. Brighton's win price is far too short and not worth bothering with.
Result: Brighton 2, Swindon 1
nPower League 2
1:00pm
Aldershot v Accrington Stanley under 3.5 goals
Macclesfield v Stevenage under 3.5 goals
Port Vale v Bury over 1.5 goals
Results: OK, I'm going to admit that I should have approached Port Vale v Bury from the opposite under of spectrum as it finished 0-0. Aldershot v Accrington finished 1-1 and Stevenage battered Macclesfield 4-0.
nPower League 1
1:00pm
BOURNEMOUTH (nap) v Charlton
It looks wrong, doesn't it? If I remember rightly a few years ago these two were at opposite ends of the league. Anyway, Charlton have lost two of their four games at the current top six this season and they're currently on a four game away losing streak. Although Bournemouth lost their last home game, each time they've lost at Dean Court in the league this season they've won the next game.
Result: Bournemouth 2, Charlton 2
Leyton Orient (nb) v Yeovil
Now this is a bit more like it. Yeovil aren't totally out of the woods at the bottom of League 1 while any slip ups from Bournemouth (see above) would mean that Leyton Orient could easily overtake them and end up in the play offs. The hosts haven't lost at home in the league for 14 games and I can't see them losing this one either.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Yeovil 5 - when you're down to ten men after fourteen minutes this is exactly the sort of thing that happens.
Watching Brief Only
Brighton v Swindon
This is a classic end of season trap game - Brighton are undefeated at home and are ten points clear of the competition with ten games left. Swindon have got to start picking up points over the next few games otherwise they'll have gone from the play offs last season to relegation this season. Brighton's win price is far too short and not worth bothering with.
Result: Brighton 2, Swindon 1
nPower League 2
1:00pm
Aldershot v Accrington Stanley under 3.5 goals
Macclesfield v Stevenage under 3.5 goals
Port Vale v Bury over 1.5 goals
Results: OK, I'm going to admit that I should have approached Port Vale v Bury from the opposite under of spectrum as it finished 0-0. Aldershot v Accrington finished 1-1 and Stevenage battered Macclesfield 4-0.
Friday, 25 March 2011
Friday's Free Tip
Friday
nPower League 1
7:45pm
MK DONS v Walsall
Walsall have lost all four games that they've played at the current top six, but this is also the fourth time this season that MK Dons have gone into a home game having won the previous three - and they always seem to blow the fourth leg. If the hosts were a racehorse I'd give them extra points for having won within a five day period on the same ground as they beat Peterborough on Monday night. With that streak issue, it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that I'm recommending the dutch home win/draw.
Result: MK Dons 1, Walsall 1
nPower League 1
7:45pm
MK DONS v Walsall
Walsall have lost all four games that they've played at the current top six, but this is also the fourth time this season that MK Dons have gone into a home game having won the previous three - and they always seem to blow the fourth leg. If the hosts were a racehorse I'd give them extra points for having won within a five day period on the same ground as they beat Peterborough on Monday night. With that streak issue, it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that I'm recommending the dutch home win/draw.
Result: MK Dons 1, Walsall 1
Tuesday, 22 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 22nd March
It's the international break this weekend, which means that I'm looking at the lower leagues in the UK this week and probably finalising my divisional baseball tips.
Four games tonight came to my attention, all of them look as if they away side won't win but I've made notes where appropriate. All kick off at 7:45 GMT
nPower League 1
BRIGHTON (NAP) v Notts County
Careful. Brighton are undefeated at home and Notts haven't lost to any of the teams in the top six away from home (win and two draws)
Result: Brighton 1, Notts County 0
Leyton Orient (NB) v Dagenham
Leyton Orient unbeaten at home against teams in the current bottom six and have only conceded one goal in those matches.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Dagenham 1
nPower League 2
Aldershot v Barnet
Barnet haven't won consecutive away games in the league since the beginning of 2008/9.
Result: Aldershot 1, Barnet 0
Port Vale v Hereford
Slight difference here as Hereford have only drawn once in their last 20 aways in League 2 so I'm going to recommend Port Vale draw no bet and laying Hereford.
Result: Port Vale 1, Hereford 1
I'll admit it - I got lucky tonight. Late goals at Leyton Orient and Port Vale saved the day!
Four games tonight came to my attention, all of them look as if they away side won't win but I've made notes where appropriate. All kick off at 7:45 GMT
nPower League 1
BRIGHTON (NAP) v Notts County
Careful. Brighton are undefeated at home and Notts haven't lost to any of the teams in the top six away from home (win and two draws)
Result: Brighton 1, Notts County 0
Leyton Orient (NB) v Dagenham
Leyton Orient unbeaten at home against teams in the current bottom six and have only conceded one goal in those matches.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Dagenham 1
nPower League 2
Aldershot v Barnet
Barnet haven't won consecutive away games in the league since the beginning of 2008/9.
Result: Aldershot 1, Barnet 0
Port Vale v Hereford
Slight difference here as Hereford have only drawn once in their last 20 aways in League 2 so I'm going to recommend Port Vale draw no bet and laying Hereford.
Result: Port Vale 1, Hereford 1
I'll admit it - I got lucky tonight. Late goals at Leyton Orient and Port Vale saved the day!
Saturday, 19 March 2011
Sunday 20th March
Time is of the essence as I've got a busy day on Saturday...I've decided to divide this post into two sections as the Norwegian tips should be backed with smaller stakes as it's the beginning of their season.
Update: this should be interesting. I've been visiting my niece and her family and didn't get any of the bets on. Let's see what happens.
Hungary
4:30pm
Ujpest v MTK
Ujpest one home defeat this season, MTK one away win. The hosts have won the last two league meetings but MTK have won five of the last ten at the Ferenc Szusza stadium - Ujpest draw no bet.
Result: Ujpest 2, MTK 1
Greece
These are the last tips for Hellenic League this season as this is Week 27 - if Olympiakos win they're champions and apart from the relegation spots everything else looks done and dusted. I've deliberately ignored teams in the relegation zone this week.
5:00pm
Iraklis v Panionios
Under 3.5 goals
Result: 1-1
OLYMPIAKOS v AEK
Far be it from me to suggest any impropriety, but it does look as if the champions elect lost at PAOK last weekend so they could win the title in front of their own fans. AEK are no mugs, having won four of their last five road trips so I'm going to suggest the usual dutch here - because Olympiakos haven't drawn (or lost!) so far this season.
Result: Olympiakos 6, AEK 0
Panathinaikos v Kerkyra
It would take a strange set of results over the last four games for Panathinaikos to win the title and they need to win this game and hope that Olympiakos lose at home to AEK. I don't think that's going to happen - oppose Kerkyra.
Result: Panathinaikos 2, Kerkyra 1
Norway
Keep the stakes realistic as this is just the first week.
5:00pm
Odd Grenland v Start
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Odd Grenland 0, Start 2
Tromso v Haugesund
Oppose Haugesund
Result: Tromso 2, Haugesund 0
7:00pm
Brann v Rosenborg
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Brann 2, Rosenborg 1
LOL, bl**dy typcial - they all came in on the day I didn't put any of them on!
Update: this should be interesting. I've been visiting my niece and her family and didn't get any of the bets on. Let's see what happens.
Hungary
4:30pm
Ujpest v MTK
Ujpest one home defeat this season, MTK one away win. The hosts have won the last two league meetings but MTK have won five of the last ten at the Ferenc Szusza stadium - Ujpest draw no bet.
Result: Ujpest 2, MTK 1
Greece
These are the last tips for Hellenic League this season as this is Week 27 - if Olympiakos win they're champions and apart from the relegation spots everything else looks done and dusted. I've deliberately ignored teams in the relegation zone this week.
5:00pm
Iraklis v Panionios
Under 3.5 goals
Result: 1-1
OLYMPIAKOS v AEK
Far be it from me to suggest any impropriety, but it does look as if the champions elect lost at PAOK last weekend so they could win the title in front of their own fans. AEK are no mugs, having won four of their last five road trips so I'm going to suggest the usual dutch here - because Olympiakos haven't drawn (or lost!) so far this season.
Result: Olympiakos 6, AEK 0
Panathinaikos v Kerkyra
It would take a strange set of results over the last four games for Panathinaikos to win the title and they need to win this game and hope that Olympiakos lose at home to AEK. I don't think that's going to happen - oppose Kerkyra.
Result: Panathinaikos 2, Kerkyra 1
Norway
Keep the stakes realistic as this is just the first week.
5:00pm
Odd Grenland v Start
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Odd Grenland 0, Start 2
Tromso v Haugesund
Oppose Haugesund
Result: Tromso 2, Haugesund 0
7:00pm
Brann v Rosenborg
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Brann 2, Rosenborg 1
LOL, bl**dy typcial - they all came in on the day I didn't put any of them on!
Friday, 18 March 2011
Free Tips For 18/19 March 2011
Four games to start the weekend with, one each from Croatia and England and two from Hungary. All kick offs GMT.
Friday
4:00pm
Croatia
Inter Zapresic v Istra 1961
The hosts are currently just about value for the win, but a home win/draw dutch should be fine. It's unlikely that Istra 1961 will keep a clean sheet - they've only done that once in ten away games this season.
Update: Mirko Kramaric scored for Inter after four minutes, game over after 26 minutes. Final score: Inter 3, Istra 1.
6:00pm
Hungary
FEHERVAR v Debrecen
There are a couple of subtle traps in this game - Debrecen haven't won away from home yet this season and the away side hasn't won in games between the top four in NB1 in 2010/2011. The visitors also have a decent record at Fehervar/Videoton (only lost one of the last five) but their away form this season hs been absolutely appalling - only Szombathely and Szolnoki MAV have worse records.
However...the last time the hosts won three consecutive home games in NB1 they lost the fourth, so prepare yourselves for a shock: dutch the home win/draw but be prepared for a surprise away win. Risk management appears to be the key here.
Update: Laszlo Lencse goal put Fehervar/Videoton ahead just after the hour, Adamo Koulibaly equalised about five minutes later.
Full time: Fehervar 2, Debrecen 1.
7:45pm
nPower League 2
Chesterfield v Rotherham United
This looks like an absolute bargain at the price it was available for on Wednesday morning - Rotherham haven't won at any of the other clubs in the current top seven and although this marks the start of a potentially tricky looking run in for Chesterfield, the Spirerites should win this.
Update: Chesterfield 5, Rotherham 0.
Saturday
2:00pm
Hungary
Lomabard Papa v Kaposvari Rakoczi
Over 2.5 goals, it's also possible that both teams might score but there seems to have been a decline in goals in NB1 since the restart after the winter break.
3:00pm
Hungary
PAKSI SE v Szombathely
Not quite as nailed on as it could be, because the visitors haven't won away this season (last away win 12 games ago) and although Paks are currently on a five game undefeated streak at home they're not exactly dominant. Guess what...a home win/draw dutch.
nPower Championship
Ipswich v Scunthorpe
Will Scunthorpe go the whole season without an away draw? There are only five opportunities to go before the end of the season and although Ipswich have won all six league games between these two since their first meeting at Portman Road in 1958, both teams are awful at the moment. Ipswich have lost their last three home games, Scunthorpe have lost seven consecutive away games - have a nibble on a draw, combined with 0-0 as the correct score.
Norwegian Tippeligaen
(The summer's here...word of warning: for the first couple of weeks, I'm going to be heavily relying on the numbers from the 2010 competition)
Viking v Valerenga
Over 2.5 definitely from a head to head perspective is highly likely, but I'll keep it simple to start with and recommend over 1.5 goals. Key stat: 60% of Viking's home games last season featured over 3.5 goals, as did 33% of Valerenga's away games.
4:00pm
Croatia
VARAZDIN v Slaven Koprivnica
Slaven have drawn their last four away games and Varazdin haven't lost at home all season: head to head shows that although the hosts have only lost one in the last ten at home, they've drawn four of those games. It's got draw written all over it...dutch home and draw.
Friday
4:00pm
Croatia
Inter Zapresic v Istra 1961
The hosts are currently just about value for the win, but a home win/draw dutch should be fine. It's unlikely that Istra 1961 will keep a clean sheet - they've only done that once in ten away games this season.
Update: Mirko Kramaric scored for Inter after four minutes, game over after 26 minutes. Final score: Inter 3, Istra 1.
6:00pm
Hungary
FEHERVAR v Debrecen
There are a couple of subtle traps in this game - Debrecen haven't won away from home yet this season and the away side hasn't won in games between the top four in NB1 in 2010/2011. The visitors also have a decent record at Fehervar/Videoton (only lost one of the last five) but their away form this season hs been absolutely appalling - only Szombathely and Szolnoki MAV have worse records.
However...the last time the hosts won three consecutive home games in NB1 they lost the fourth, so prepare yourselves for a shock: dutch the home win/draw but be prepared for a surprise away win. Risk management appears to be the key here.
Update: Laszlo Lencse goal put Fehervar/Videoton ahead just after the hour, Adamo Koulibaly equalised about five minutes later.
Full time: Fehervar 2, Debrecen 1.
7:45pm
nPower League 2
Chesterfield v Rotherham United
This looks like an absolute bargain at the price it was available for on Wednesday morning - Rotherham haven't won at any of the other clubs in the current top seven and although this marks the start of a potentially tricky looking run in for Chesterfield, the Spirerites should win this.
Update: Chesterfield 5, Rotherham 0.
Saturday
2:00pm
Hungary
Lomabard Papa v Kaposvari Rakoczi
Over 2.5 goals, it's also possible that both teams might score but there seems to have been a decline in goals in NB1 since the restart after the winter break.
3:00pm
Hungary
PAKSI SE v Szombathely
Not quite as nailed on as it could be, because the visitors haven't won away this season (last away win 12 games ago) and although Paks are currently on a five game undefeated streak at home they're not exactly dominant. Guess what...a home win/draw dutch.
nPower Championship
Ipswich v Scunthorpe
Will Scunthorpe go the whole season without an away draw? There are only five opportunities to go before the end of the season and although Ipswich have won all six league games between these two since their first meeting at Portman Road in 1958, both teams are awful at the moment. Ipswich have lost their last three home games, Scunthorpe have lost seven consecutive away games - have a nibble on a draw, combined with 0-0 as the correct score.
Norwegian Tippeligaen
(The summer's here...word of warning: for the first couple of weeks, I'm going to be heavily relying on the numbers from the 2010 competition)
Viking v Valerenga
Over 2.5 definitely from a head to head perspective is highly likely, but I'll keep it simple to start with and recommend over 1.5 goals. Key stat: 60% of Viking's home games last season featured over 3.5 goals, as did 33% of Valerenga's away games.
4:00pm
Croatia
VARAZDIN v Slaven Koprivnica
Slaven have drawn their last four away games and Varazdin haven't lost at home all season: head to head shows that although the hosts have only lost one in the last ten at home, they've drawn four of those games. It's got draw written all over it...dutch home and draw.
Random Champions League Facts
Here's a quick round up of the Champions League Quarter Finalists - figures in brackets represent how many times the club has won the European Cup/Champions League, the notes below the names represent success in the Champions League only.
Barcelona (3)
Winners in 1992, 2006 and 2009; runners up 1994
Chelsea (0)
Runners up in 2008
Manchester United (3)
Winners in 1999 and 2008, runners up in 2009
Real Madrid (9)
Winners in 1998, 2000 and 2002
Schalke (0)
Quarter finals in 2008
Shaktar Donetsk (0)
Group stage three times
Spurs (0)
First season in the Champions League - reached semis of the European Cup in 1961/62.
Inter Milan (3)
Winners in 2010
One thing sticks out straight away - the four clubs who haven't won the Champions League have all won other European competitions.
Since reorganisation, finals between the remaining nations have shaken out like this:
3:
Spain v Italy (Spanish clubs won twice)
2:
England/Italy (one win each; both games were between Liverpool and Milan)
Spain/England (Barcelona won both)
Germany/Italy (one win each)
Germany/Spain (one win each)
1:
England/Germany (Manchester United won)
England/England (Manchester United won)
Spain/Spain (Real Madrid won)
It's highly likely that one of these combinations will be this season's final - the only wildcard are Shaktar Donetsk.
Wembley finals: English clubs have won two of the five finals at Wembley, the only other nation left in the tournament that has provided more than one finalist is Italy. Only one Spanish team has played in (and won) a final at Wembley - Barcelona in 1992.
Spanish clubs have won the last three finals they've played in. The last Spanish club to lose a final was Valencia in 2001: Barcelona haven't lost a final since 1994, Real Madrid since 1981.
The Premier League has provided half of the last ten finalists but only one winner - and that was from the all English final in 2008.
English, German and Italian clubs have all lost more finals than they've won since the European Cup was re-launched as the Champions League.
Since 1990/91, only two teams have won the Champions League in their own country - Juventus in 1996 and Borussia Dortmund in 1997. Worryingly for Chelsea and Spurs, those victories were not in either Turin or Dortmund.
Barcelona (3)
Winners in 1992, 2006 and 2009; runners up 1994
Chelsea (0)
Runners up in 2008
Manchester United (3)
Winners in 1999 and 2008, runners up in 2009
Real Madrid (9)
Winners in 1998, 2000 and 2002
Schalke (0)
Quarter finals in 2008
Shaktar Donetsk (0)
Group stage three times
Spurs (0)
First season in the Champions League - reached semis of the European Cup in 1961/62.
Inter Milan (3)
Winners in 2010
One thing sticks out straight away - the four clubs who haven't won the Champions League have all won other European competitions.
Since reorganisation, finals between the remaining nations have shaken out like this:
3:
Spain v Italy (Spanish clubs won twice)
2:
England/Italy (one win each; both games were between Liverpool and Milan)
Spain/England (Barcelona won both)
Germany/Italy (one win each)
Germany/Spain (one win each)
1:
England/Germany (Manchester United won)
England/England (Manchester United won)
Spain/Spain (Real Madrid won)
It's highly likely that one of these combinations will be this season's final - the only wildcard are Shaktar Donetsk.
Wembley finals: English clubs have won two of the five finals at Wembley, the only other nation left in the tournament that has provided more than one finalist is Italy. Only one Spanish team has played in (and won) a final at Wembley - Barcelona in 1992.
Spanish clubs have won the last three finals they've played in. The last Spanish club to lose a final was Valencia in 2001: Barcelona haven't lost a final since 1994, Real Madrid since 1981.
The Premier League has provided half of the last ten finalists but only one winner - and that was from the all English final in 2008.
English, German and Italian clubs have all lost more finals than they've won since the European Cup was re-launched as the Champions League.
Since 1990/91, only two teams have won the Champions League in their own country - Juventus in 1996 and Borussia Dortmund in 1997. Worryingly for Chelsea and Spurs, those victories were not in either Turin or Dortmund.
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 15th March
Not a bad weekend: there were only two expensive mistakes (Vasas beat Ujpest 1-0 with ten men and suddenly - at the end of the season - Greek sides remembered how to score goals) but I think the word 'satisfactory' is appropriate here, especially as Nick Watney did the business in the golf.
Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.
nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.
nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.
nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.
The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.
It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)
1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew
Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.
nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.
nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.
nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.
The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.
It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)
1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew
Sunday, 13 March 2011
Tips For Sunday 13th March
The 'Rough & Ready' system threw up the following game from the nPower Championship, but I've put a bit more analytical effort this morning.
3:00pm
Cardiff v Barnsley
The incentive for the win is leapfrogging their rivals into second place, but Cardiff's win price doesn't represent any value and there doesn't seem to be a team that's capable of challenging QPR at the top - despite multiple opportunities that have been given to the chasing pack.
The safest bet is Barnsley not to keep a clean sheet/Cardiff to score, but backing over 1.5 goals is what I'm going to go with.
Greece
3:15pm
AEK v Kavala
AEK weren't one of my favourite teams a few weeks ago when they screwed up against Aris and Panionios, but they are one of the better teams at home in Greece - having said that, Kavala have improved away from home this season and as AEK's price doesn't really represent value I'm going to dutch AEK/draw. Key stat may be that AEK have won the last six home league games against Kavala.
Hungary
4:30pm
Vasas v Ujpest
Having lost four of the last five league games at home to Ujpest, this looks as if it might be a decent chance for three points for the hosts. However, over 1.5 goals and both teams to score look more likely so I'm going with them.
3:00pm
Cardiff v Barnsley
The incentive for the win is leapfrogging their rivals into second place, but Cardiff's win price doesn't represent any value and there doesn't seem to be a team that's capable of challenging QPR at the top - despite multiple opportunities that have been given to the chasing pack.
The safest bet is Barnsley not to keep a clean sheet/Cardiff to score, but backing over 1.5 goals is what I'm going to go with.
Greece
3:15pm
AEK v Kavala
AEK weren't one of my favourite teams a few weeks ago when they screwed up against Aris and Panionios, but they are one of the better teams at home in Greece - having said that, Kavala have improved away from home this season and as AEK's price doesn't really represent value I'm going to dutch AEK/draw. Key stat may be that AEK have won the last six home league games against Kavala.
Hungary
4:30pm
Vasas v Ujpest
Having lost four of the last five league games at home to Ujpest, this looks as if it might be a decent chance for three points for the hosts. However, over 1.5 goals and both teams to score look more likely so I'm going with them.
Friday, 11 March 2011
Free Tips For Friday and Saturday
FRIDAY
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.
Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.
4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.
Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.
Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:
Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker
Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.
Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.
4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.
Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.
Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:
Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker
Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.
Tuesday, 8 March 2011
Tuesday 8th March
Blackpool v Chelsea went exactly how the numbers predicted it would (1-3), although I must admit that I thought it took Chelsea longer to score the second goal than I thought it would.
Anyway, tonight is a busy one and I'm off to a game this evening...so let's not mess about.
Tuesday
Hungary
5pm
Debrecen v Paksi SE
Back over 1.5/2.5 and don't get involved with 0-0 or outrights as there are some trap elements here. Both teams to score also looks worth taking.
Championship
All 7:45pm
Under 3.5 goals in all of the following:
Barnsley v Scunthorpe (potential home win)
Doncaster v Coventry (potential home win)
Hull v Burnley - although under 2.5 goals in this particular game would be more profitable.
Millwall v QPR
Sheff U v Nottingham Forest
Additionally, I've put this lot together using my fast and loose method, so I wouldn't go too mad with staking these: laying the away team and/or backing the home team should work in the majority of the games below. Bold represents possible home win, bold caps represents possible home banker.
League 1
Tranmere v Bristol Rovers
Huddersfield v Rochdale
Plymouth v Swindon (although looking at Plymouth's current price a home win/draw dutch could be the way forward)
League 2
CHESTERFIELD v Northampton
Bury v Morecambe
Accrington Stanley v Stockport
Stevenage v Hereford
As for Arsenal in the Champions League...the one thing that probably won't happen is that the game will finish 0-0. Over 2.5 goals looks tempting, but the challenge I've got is avoiding the score until I get home later!
Anyway, tonight is a busy one and I'm off to a game this evening...so let's not mess about.
Tuesday
Hungary
5pm
Debrecen v Paksi SE
Back over 1.5/2.5 and don't get involved with 0-0 or outrights as there are some trap elements here. Both teams to score also looks worth taking.
Championship
All 7:45pm
Under 3.5 goals in all of the following:
Barnsley v Scunthorpe (potential home win)
Doncaster v Coventry (potential home win)
Hull v Burnley - although under 2.5 goals in this particular game would be more profitable.
Millwall v QPR
Sheff U v Nottingham Forest
Additionally, I've put this lot together using my fast and loose method, so I wouldn't go too mad with staking these: laying the away team and/or backing the home team should work in the majority of the games below. Bold represents possible home win, bold caps represents possible home banker.
League 1
Tranmere v Bristol Rovers
Huddersfield v Rochdale
Plymouth v Swindon (although looking at Plymouth's current price a home win/draw dutch could be the way forward)
League 2
CHESTERFIELD v Northampton
Bury v Morecambe
Accrington Stanley v Stockport
Stevenage v Hereford
As for Arsenal in the Champions League...the one thing that probably won't happen is that the game will finish 0-0. Over 2.5 goals looks tempting, but the challenge I've got is avoiding the score until I get home later!
Monday, 7 March 2011
Monday Night Football 7th March
Staggering weekend - having tweaked some of the parameters in the total goals area, I hadn't expected to be so successful so quickly. Lots of games this week so let's see if I can keep it up.
Premier League
8:00pm
Blackpool v Chelsea
Chelsea are a silly price for the win so there's no point in backing them and as I think there should be a few goals in this one the main decision should be roughly how many.
Before going any further, I think it's only fair to point out the obvious traps in this game. Blackpool have won a lot of friends with their all out attacking style and as a consequence they've scored in every home league game this season - but at some point they're not going to score at Bloomfield Road and it might be this evening. Blackpool haven't kept a clean sheet at home all season - something they've done five times on their travels in 2010/11, which is better than Manchester United!
The implications from the information above are that 'both teams to score' and 'away clean sheet' are currently at a very competitive prices and 'home clean sheet' is hilariously bad. Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets in 14 away games in the Premier League this season although two of those came in the last three games...which is presumably the David Luiz factor at work.
Basically, I think the market that's best placed to produce a win is over 1.5 goals - taking traps into account, I can see this being a Chelsea win containing probably over 2.5 goals and maybe even both teams to score, but I'm not going to take the risk implied in the odds available for those markets. To recap, Chelsea's win price isn't worth bothering with, there'll be goals but how many depends on the Chelsea defence rather than the Blackpool attack and it could be fewer than expected.
Premier League
8:00pm
Blackpool v Chelsea
Chelsea are a silly price for the win so there's no point in backing them and as I think there should be a few goals in this one the main decision should be roughly how many.
Before going any further, I think it's only fair to point out the obvious traps in this game. Blackpool have won a lot of friends with their all out attacking style and as a consequence they've scored in every home league game this season - but at some point they're not going to score at Bloomfield Road and it might be this evening. Blackpool haven't kept a clean sheet at home all season - something they've done five times on their travels in 2010/11, which is better than Manchester United!
The implications from the information above are that 'both teams to score' and 'away clean sheet' are currently at a very competitive prices and 'home clean sheet' is hilariously bad. Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets in 14 away games in the Premier League this season although two of those came in the last three games...which is presumably the David Luiz factor at work.
Basically, I think the market that's best placed to produce a win is over 1.5 goals - taking traps into account, I can see this being a Chelsea win containing probably over 2.5 goals and maybe even both teams to score, but I'm not going to take the risk implied in the odds available for those markets. To recap, Chelsea's win price isn't worth bothering with, there'll be goals but how many depends on the Chelsea defence rather than the Blackpool attack and it could be fewer than expected.
Sunday, 6 March 2011
Sunday 6th March
Got caught out on Saturday because the kick off times weren't 'as advertised', the only one that I missed was Gyori v Vasas - which I would have lost. Still, even that did not spoil what turned out to be an excellent day's tipping.
Greece
1:00pm
Kavala v Asteras
Back under 3.5 goals, although this is a similar sort of situation to the game between Aris and Iraklis on Saturday evening.
Olympiakos Piraeus v Ergotelis
Lay 0-0 as long as the price isn't too ridiculous, which it is for the Olympiakos win.
Hungary - watching brief only
4:30pm
Honved v Ferencvaros
Lay 0-0, but at time of writing this market was totally unexposed and as I had a late night last night and I'm not feeling particularly brave this morning (!) I'm leaving that alone. However, it looks as if there could be goals in this game, probably somewhere over 1.5 and under 3.5 but that's about as specific as I'm going to get today.
Oh and I almost forgot...
Liverpool v Man United
Avoid the outrights markets, although there might be a case to be made for the draw simply because there hasn't been one for a while and United (along with Fulham) are this season's away draw specialists in the Premier League. Can't see this being packed with goals either...and there hasn't been a 1-1 at Anfield since February 1986.
Greece
1:00pm
Kavala v Asteras
Back under 3.5 goals, although this is a similar sort of situation to the game between Aris and Iraklis on Saturday evening.
Olympiakos Piraeus v Ergotelis
Lay 0-0 as long as the price isn't too ridiculous, which it is for the Olympiakos win.
Hungary - watching brief only
4:30pm
Honved v Ferencvaros
Lay 0-0, but at time of writing this market was totally unexposed and as I had a late night last night and I'm not feeling particularly brave this morning (!) I'm leaving that alone. However, it looks as if there could be goals in this game, probably somewhere over 1.5 and under 3.5 but that's about as specific as I'm going to get today.
Oh and I almost forgot...
Liverpool v Man United
Avoid the outrights markets, although there might be a case to be made for the draw simply because there hasn't been one for a while and United (along with Fulham) are this season's away draw specialists in the Premier League. Can't see this being packed with goals either...and there hasn't been a 1-1 at Anfield since February 1986.
Friday, 4 March 2011
Saturday 5th March
Another double on Friday afternoon...which of these beauties is going to let the side down?
All times GMT, teams in bold represent possible home wins, BOLD CAPS means possible home banker.
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Istra
Osijek's win price looks about right, but discount the draw at your peril - Istra won their last away game in the Autumn phase and have a tendancy to draw the next road trip; Osijek are this season's draw specialists. Osijek/draw looks like a good combo to me.
Greece
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Panserraikos
Back under 3.5 goals - all credit to the hosts, who won the Football League (2nd tier) last season and are currently in the Champions League playoff places: a tough home defence goes a long way in Greece if you don't score that many goals.
Croatia
4:00pm
Split v Cibalia
Back under 3.5 goals - you'd have to back this as the exchanges won't go near this type of market in Croatia. The visitors drew 0-0 at home on Tuesday afternoon.
Rijeka v Karlovac
Back under 3.5 goals
Hungary
4:30pm
Videoton/Fehervar v MTK
Lay 0-0 (check the market - nothing on it right now), back under 3.5 goals
GYORI v Vasas Budapest
If it was possible to lay 0-0 I would, but I'd recommend not getting involved with goal markets as there could be a few here as the visitor's away form is horrible - they kept one clean sheet in the Autumn phase and haven't won away this season. Dutching Gyori/draw also seems like a good idea.
Greece
5:30pm
Aris v Iraklis
Either back under 2.5 goals or back under 3.5 goals, although the under 3.5 goals market is better if you fancy trading it.
Additionally...using an admittedly very rough and ready way of working out prices, it might be worth looking at backing the following teams in the nPower Championship on Saturday afternoon:
Leeds, Norwich, Portsmouth, QPR and Reading.
All times GMT, teams in bold represent possible home wins, BOLD CAPS means possible home banker.
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Istra
Osijek's win price looks about right, but discount the draw at your peril - Istra won their last away game in the Autumn phase and have a tendancy to draw the next road trip; Osijek are this season's draw specialists. Osijek/draw looks like a good combo to me.
Greece
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Panserraikos
Back under 3.5 goals - all credit to the hosts, who won the Football League (2nd tier) last season and are currently in the Champions League playoff places: a tough home defence goes a long way in Greece if you don't score that many goals.
Croatia
4:00pm
Split v Cibalia
Back under 3.5 goals - you'd have to back this as the exchanges won't go near this type of market in Croatia. The visitors drew 0-0 at home on Tuesday afternoon.
Rijeka v Karlovac
Back under 3.5 goals
Hungary
4:30pm
Videoton/Fehervar v MTK
Lay 0-0 (check the market - nothing on it right now), back under 3.5 goals
GYORI v Vasas Budapest
If it was possible to lay 0-0 I would, but I'd recommend not getting involved with goal markets as there could be a few here as the visitor's away form is horrible - they kept one clean sheet in the Autumn phase and haven't won away this season. Dutching Gyori/draw also seems like a good idea.
Greece
5:30pm
Aris v Iraklis
Either back under 2.5 goals or back under 3.5 goals, although the under 3.5 goals market is better if you fancy trading it.
Additionally...using an admittedly very rough and ready way of working out prices, it might be worth looking at backing the following teams in the nPower Championship on Saturday afternoon:
Leeds, Norwich, Portsmouth, QPR and Reading.
200th Post: Friday's Tips
Couple of games in Eastern Europe this afternoon - bold indicates likely home win, bold caps indicates likely home banker.
Croatia
4:00pm
Inter Zapresic v NK Zagreb
A possible home win, but once again that's not why I'm interested. According to a couple of sets of numbers I've run, this game is around 55-60% to finish with under 2.5 goals being scored and 75-85% to finish with under 3.5 goals being scored. Take your pick.
Hungary
4:00pm
KECSKEMETI v Debrecen
Key stat: 2.99 goals per game in NB1.
Key pronunciation: Kutch-KUH-mayti, Deh-BRET-sen
It's goals again in this one though - over 2.5 goals. There's been at least one goal in Kecskemeti's last 20 home league games and they've scored in 19 of them: the only aspect of Debrecen's performance I'd be worried about is that they've failed to score in four of their seven away games this season so the hosts might have to do all the work themselves: a nibble at a Kecskemeti win might be a good idea too as despite being a top five team, Debrecen's away form is horrible.
Croatia
4:00pm
Inter Zapresic v NK Zagreb
A possible home win, but once again that's not why I'm interested. According to a couple of sets of numbers I've run, this game is around 55-60% to finish with under 2.5 goals being scored and 75-85% to finish with under 3.5 goals being scored. Take your pick.
Hungary
4:00pm
KECSKEMETI v Debrecen
Key stat: 2.99 goals per game in NB1.
Key pronunciation: Kutch-KUH-mayti, Deh-BRET-sen
It's goals again in this one though - over 2.5 goals. There's been at least one goal in Kecskemeti's last 20 home league games and they've scored in 19 of them: the only aspect of Debrecen's performance I'd be worried about is that they've failed to score in four of their seven away games this season so the hosts might have to do all the work themselves: a nibble at a Kecskemeti win might be a good idea too as despite being a top five team, Debrecen's away form is horrible.
Thursday, 3 March 2011
That's Better
More fiddling about with the template editor...looks a lot better than the last go though.
I must admit I had a look at Real Madrid v Malaga this afternoon: my initial thought - and this is what it said on the spreadsheet - 'won't finish 0-0'. But what worried me was the amount of games at the Bernabeu that had finished over 3.5 goals...five of twelve. Well, make that six of thirteen.
Real Madrid 7, Malaga 0: Ronaldo hat-trick.
I must admit I had a look at Real Madrid v Malaga this afternoon: my initial thought - and this is what it said on the spreadsheet - 'won't finish 0-0'. But what worried me was the amount of games at the Bernabeu that had finished over 3.5 goals...five of twelve. Well, make that six of thirteen.
Real Madrid 7, Malaga 0: Ronaldo hat-trick.
Wednesday, 2 March 2011
Spanish Tips For Wednesday Night
There's probably a good reason why Real Sociedad are so competitively priced for their game against Levante (I'd have them around 8/15) but that's not what we're looking at today. I'm going to recommend laying over 3.5 goals in both these games. Bold caps equals possible home banker, bold means expected home win.
VILLAREAL v Hercules
Although the visitors away form is nothing to write home about, they've not been involved with a game with more than three goals all season: I also wouldn't be too surprised if Villareal kept a clean sheet.
Real Sociedad v Levante
I was going to suggest laying 0-0 but Real Sociedad haven't drawn at home all season (maybe that fact explains the price) and so far they've scored in every home league game this season - so there are a couple of traps there already. Real Sociedad will either win...or they won't.
Update: Villareal won 1-0 and Sociedad drew with Levante. I'll be back on Friday.
VILLAREAL v Hercules
Although the visitors away form is nothing to write home about, they've not been involved with a game with more than three goals all season: I also wouldn't be too surprised if Villareal kept a clean sheet.
Real Sociedad v Levante
I was going to suggest laying 0-0 but Real Sociedad haven't drawn at home all season (maybe that fact explains the price) and so far they've scored in every home league game this season - so there are a couple of traps there already. Real Sociedad will either win...or they won't.
Update: Villareal won 1-0 and Sociedad drew with Levante. I'll be back on Friday.
Spring Cleaning
Please excuse the 'makeover' which is taking place over the next couple of days - I'm testing layouts for a potential relaunch of the blog next month and while I'm doing so things might look a bit different from time to time.
Tuesday, 1 March 2011
Tuesday Tips
I'll start this post with a moan and some information: the lack of draws in the games below mean that backing a tie in both of them could result in a nice payout. That's the information: this is the moan.
I'm giving up with Portuguese football for a while - unless you're backing the big three to win every week at stupid prices, the Liga Sagres is completely inconsistent from week to week. That alone might make it exciting to follow and the lack of goals is more or less guaranteed, I did the accounts last night (after the Naval/Braga game) and Portuguese football is basically a money pit for me.
Croatia
2:00pm
CIBALIA v Zadar
Cibalia are far too short to consider backing, especially as they've not drawn at home this season and Zadar haven't drawn away. However, the put this game into perspective, Cibalia have only lost once in the twelve games they've played at Stadion Cibalia since they last drew there and Zadar have lost twelve of their fourteen games since they last drew away.
Recommendation: over 1.5 goals and under 3.5 looks about right, as does Cibalia keeping a clean sheet. The problem is that this game is chronically unexposed and it may be worth checking the markets before kick off to see if there's any interest at all...which I've just done. There isn't. Have £1 (or local equivalent) on the draw.
Update: off to a winning start in March...finished 0-0.
nPower Championship
7:45pm
Portsmouth v Scunthorpe
Beware the draw - Scunthorpe haven't had one on the road since December 2009, but having lost their last five away games in the Championship without scoring a goal it probably goes without saying that drawing at a ground where they've not won since February 1964 may be beyond them. I find it hard to believe that they won't draw one away game this season and it might be this one - straight dutch could do the trick.
As for Manchester United and Chelsea, although the hosts have gone backwards at home this season, United haven't won at Stamford Bridge for over a decade in the league and I'll be surprised if they do tonight. Low scoring game, possibly a draw. The big question is will Ashley Cole be on target today?
I'm giving up with Portuguese football for a while - unless you're backing the big three to win every week at stupid prices, the Liga Sagres is completely inconsistent from week to week. That alone might make it exciting to follow and the lack of goals is more or less guaranteed, I did the accounts last night (after the Naval/Braga game) and Portuguese football is basically a money pit for me.
Croatia
2:00pm
CIBALIA v Zadar
Cibalia are far too short to consider backing, especially as they've not drawn at home this season and Zadar haven't drawn away. However, the put this game into perspective, Cibalia have only lost once in the twelve games they've played at Stadion Cibalia since they last drew there and Zadar have lost twelve of their fourteen games since they last drew away.
Recommendation: over 1.5 goals and under 3.5 looks about right, as does Cibalia keeping a clean sheet. The problem is that this game is chronically unexposed and it may be worth checking the markets before kick off to see if there's any interest at all...which I've just done. There isn't. Have £1 (or local equivalent) on the draw.
Update: off to a winning start in March...finished 0-0.
nPower Championship
7:45pm
Portsmouth v Scunthorpe
Beware the draw - Scunthorpe haven't had one on the road since December 2009, but having lost their last five away games in the Championship without scoring a goal it probably goes without saying that drawing at a ground where they've not won since February 1964 may be beyond them. I find it hard to believe that they won't draw one away game this season and it might be this one - straight dutch could do the trick.
As for Manchester United and Chelsea, although the hosts have gone backwards at home this season, United haven't won at Stamford Bridge for over a decade in the league and I'll be surprised if they do tonight. Low scoring game, possibly a draw. The big question is will Ashley Cole be on target today?
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