nPower League 2
7:45pm
Accrington Stanley v Hereford
Hereford have won the last two league games at the Crown Ground and although Accrington have won five consecutive league games, Hereford recently won five consecutive aways and may be a better side than their league position suggests. It's either feast or famine with these two and so I'm going to recommend Accrington draw no bet.
Long term, I'm wondering if Accrington might not be in the mix for promotion next season - their home record over the last 20 games is 12-4-4 but they need to make the transition from difficult to beat to promotion standard, which usually means an improvement in away form.
Result: Accrington Stanley 4, Hereford 0
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Showing posts with label League 2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label League 2. Show all posts
Wednesday, 30 March 2011
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 29th March
Three games caught my attention, it'll come as no surprise that two of tonight's away teams are rubbish. All kick offs are 7:45pm GMT.
nPower League 1
Dagenham v Brighton
Under 3.5 goals. Brighton have kept three consecutive away clean sheets in League 1 and have a ten point lead over Huddersfield: their last four aways have finished 1-0 and although Dagenham can usually find the back of the net at home (they've not been shut out at home for seven games) they're up against a team that is literally a different class.
Result: Dagenham 0, Brighton 1
EXETER (nap) v Swindon
The only probable here is that Swindon won't win. The visitors have had the best of it in Devon over the last ten meetings (an amazing five wins and four draws) so this is actually the best chance that Exeter have of beating Swindon since April 1980. Will they do it? Who knows, I'm only interested in Swindon not winning. Dutch Exeter/draw and possibly have a nibble on a correct score of 1-1.
LUNCHTIME UPDATE: the markets are moving away from an Exeter win to a draw - the main reason appears to be because Exeter will have two of their first team defenders suspended.
Result: Exeter 1, Swindon 0. To paraphrase Private Wilson from 'Dad's Army', Swindon are 'doomed!'
nPower League 2
Port Vale (nb) v Lincoln
A quick return to Vale Park after last Saturday's 0-0 draw with Bury, which I am no longer angry about. Tonight the hosts entertain Lincoln City, who were thumped 6-0 at home last week but - like Swindon at Exeter - have a weirdly impressive record at Port Vale. However, last season Port Vale won this game 4-0 and although I don't think it's going to be that one sided, I can't see Port Vale losing. Oppose Lincoln however you like.
Result: Port Vale 2, Lincoln 1
Back tomorrow for Accrington Stanley v Hereford.
nPower League 1
Dagenham v Brighton
Under 3.5 goals. Brighton have kept three consecutive away clean sheets in League 1 and have a ten point lead over Huddersfield: their last four aways have finished 1-0 and although Dagenham can usually find the back of the net at home (they've not been shut out at home for seven games) they're up against a team that is literally a different class.
Result: Dagenham 0, Brighton 1
EXETER (nap) v Swindon
The only probable here is that Swindon won't win. The visitors have had the best of it in Devon over the last ten meetings (an amazing five wins and four draws) so this is actually the best chance that Exeter have of beating Swindon since April 1980. Will they do it? Who knows, I'm only interested in Swindon not winning. Dutch Exeter/draw and possibly have a nibble on a correct score of 1-1.
LUNCHTIME UPDATE: the markets are moving away from an Exeter win to a draw - the main reason appears to be because Exeter will have two of their first team defenders suspended.
Result: Exeter 1, Swindon 0. To paraphrase Private Wilson from 'Dad's Army', Swindon are 'doomed!'
nPower League 2
Port Vale (nb) v Lincoln
A quick return to Vale Park after last Saturday's 0-0 draw with Bury, which I am no longer angry about. Tonight the hosts entertain Lincoln City, who were thumped 6-0 at home last week but - like Swindon at Exeter - have a weirdly impressive record at Port Vale. However, last season Port Vale won this game 4-0 and although I don't think it's going to be that one sided, I can't see Port Vale losing. Oppose Lincoln however you like.
Result: Port Vale 2, Lincoln 1
Back tomorrow for Accrington Stanley v Hereford.
Sunday, 27 March 2011
Free Tips For Sunday 27th March
A bit disappointed with yesterday, I can cope with the outliers (Leyton Orient and Stevenage) but getting Port Vale and Bury wrong was a case of not thinking it through. Still, today's another day and here are my recommendations.
nPower League 2
3:00pm
Oxford United v Burton Albion
Oxford ought to get into the not losing at home: arguably it's their lack of home draws that's going to keep them from reaching the playoffs in their first season back in the Football League. They've not drawn any games with the current bottom six this season and although Burton are a few games behind everyone else at the foot of the table, they're also in that position on form as well - two wins in their last ten away games.
Recommendation: Oxford draw no bet will produce a better return so I'm going for that.
Result: Oxford 3, Burton 0. Burton also had two men sent off.
nPower League 1
4:00pm
HUDDERSFIELD v Notts County
I was originally looking at this from a total goals point of view, but it quickly became apparent that the usual dutching strategy would work. If the hosts win they'll have a gap between themselves and Peterborough and be in a commanding position for the second automatic promotion spot. Notts could still find themselves in relegation trouble but they've only lost four of their last ten aways and have a reasonably tough defence: Huddersfield haven't exactly been banging the goals in either.
Recommendation: dutch home win/draw
Result: Huddersfield 3, Notts County 0
There are a lot of catch up games in the lower leagues in England this week, I'll do my best to keep on top of them. There'll definitely be a post towards the end of next week, the Allsvenskan starts and it's Week 2 in Norway.
nPower League 2
3:00pm
Oxford United v Burton Albion
Oxford ought to get into the not losing at home: arguably it's their lack of home draws that's going to keep them from reaching the playoffs in their first season back in the Football League. They've not drawn any games with the current bottom six this season and although Burton are a few games behind everyone else at the foot of the table, they're also in that position on form as well - two wins in their last ten away games.
Recommendation: Oxford draw no bet will produce a better return so I'm going for that.
Result: Oxford 3, Burton 0. Burton also had two men sent off.
nPower League 1
4:00pm
HUDDERSFIELD v Notts County
I was originally looking at this from a total goals point of view, but it quickly became apparent that the usual dutching strategy would work. If the hosts win they'll have a gap between themselves and Peterborough and be in a commanding position for the second automatic promotion spot. Notts could still find themselves in relegation trouble but they've only lost four of their last ten aways and have a reasonably tough defence: Huddersfield haven't exactly been banging the goals in either.
Recommendation: dutch home win/draw
Result: Huddersfield 3, Notts County 0
There are a lot of catch up games in the lower leagues in England this week, I'll do my best to keep on top of them. There'll definitely be a post towards the end of next week, the Allsvenskan starts and it's Week 2 in Norway.
Saturday, 26 March 2011
Free Tips For Saturday 26th March
Saturday's tips for the lower divisions in England - the kick off times are all 1:00pm so everyone can go to the pub afterwards to watch England beat Wales.
nPower League 1
1:00pm
BOURNEMOUTH (nap) v Charlton
It looks wrong, doesn't it? If I remember rightly a few years ago these two were at opposite ends of the league. Anyway, Charlton have lost two of their four games at the current top six this season and they're currently on a four game away losing streak. Although Bournemouth lost their last home game, each time they've lost at Dean Court in the league this season they've won the next game.
Result: Bournemouth 2, Charlton 2
Leyton Orient (nb) v Yeovil
Now this is a bit more like it. Yeovil aren't totally out of the woods at the bottom of League 1 while any slip ups from Bournemouth (see above) would mean that Leyton Orient could easily overtake them and end up in the play offs. The hosts haven't lost at home in the league for 14 games and I can't see them losing this one either.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Yeovil 5 - when you're down to ten men after fourteen minutes this is exactly the sort of thing that happens.
Watching Brief Only
Brighton v Swindon
This is a classic end of season trap game - Brighton are undefeated at home and are ten points clear of the competition with ten games left. Swindon have got to start picking up points over the next few games otherwise they'll have gone from the play offs last season to relegation this season. Brighton's win price is far too short and not worth bothering with.
Result: Brighton 2, Swindon 1
nPower League 2
1:00pm
Aldershot v Accrington Stanley under 3.5 goals
Macclesfield v Stevenage under 3.5 goals
Port Vale v Bury over 1.5 goals
Results: OK, I'm going to admit that I should have approached Port Vale v Bury from the opposite under of spectrum as it finished 0-0. Aldershot v Accrington finished 1-1 and Stevenage battered Macclesfield 4-0.
nPower League 1
1:00pm
BOURNEMOUTH (nap) v Charlton
It looks wrong, doesn't it? If I remember rightly a few years ago these two were at opposite ends of the league. Anyway, Charlton have lost two of their four games at the current top six this season and they're currently on a four game away losing streak. Although Bournemouth lost their last home game, each time they've lost at Dean Court in the league this season they've won the next game.
Result: Bournemouth 2, Charlton 2
Leyton Orient (nb) v Yeovil
Now this is a bit more like it. Yeovil aren't totally out of the woods at the bottom of League 1 while any slip ups from Bournemouth (see above) would mean that Leyton Orient could easily overtake them and end up in the play offs. The hosts haven't lost at home in the league for 14 games and I can't see them losing this one either.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Yeovil 5 - when you're down to ten men after fourteen minutes this is exactly the sort of thing that happens.
Watching Brief Only
Brighton v Swindon
This is a classic end of season trap game - Brighton are undefeated at home and are ten points clear of the competition with ten games left. Swindon have got to start picking up points over the next few games otherwise they'll have gone from the play offs last season to relegation this season. Brighton's win price is far too short and not worth bothering with.
Result: Brighton 2, Swindon 1
nPower League 2
1:00pm
Aldershot v Accrington Stanley under 3.5 goals
Macclesfield v Stevenage under 3.5 goals
Port Vale v Bury over 1.5 goals
Results: OK, I'm going to admit that I should have approached Port Vale v Bury from the opposite under of spectrum as it finished 0-0. Aldershot v Accrington finished 1-1 and Stevenage battered Macclesfield 4-0.
Tuesday, 22 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 22nd March
It's the international break this weekend, which means that I'm looking at the lower leagues in the UK this week and probably finalising my divisional baseball tips.
Four games tonight came to my attention, all of them look as if they away side won't win but I've made notes where appropriate. All kick off at 7:45 GMT
nPower League 1
BRIGHTON (NAP) v Notts County
Careful. Brighton are undefeated at home and Notts haven't lost to any of the teams in the top six away from home (win and two draws)
Result: Brighton 1, Notts County 0
Leyton Orient (NB) v Dagenham
Leyton Orient unbeaten at home against teams in the current bottom six and have only conceded one goal in those matches.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Dagenham 1
nPower League 2
Aldershot v Barnet
Barnet haven't won consecutive away games in the league since the beginning of 2008/9.
Result: Aldershot 1, Barnet 0
Port Vale v Hereford
Slight difference here as Hereford have only drawn once in their last 20 aways in League 2 so I'm going to recommend Port Vale draw no bet and laying Hereford.
Result: Port Vale 1, Hereford 1
I'll admit it - I got lucky tonight. Late goals at Leyton Orient and Port Vale saved the day!
Four games tonight came to my attention, all of them look as if they away side won't win but I've made notes where appropriate. All kick off at 7:45 GMT
nPower League 1
BRIGHTON (NAP) v Notts County
Careful. Brighton are undefeated at home and Notts haven't lost to any of the teams in the top six away from home (win and two draws)
Result: Brighton 1, Notts County 0
Leyton Orient (NB) v Dagenham
Leyton Orient unbeaten at home against teams in the current bottom six and have only conceded one goal in those matches.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Dagenham 1
nPower League 2
Aldershot v Barnet
Barnet haven't won consecutive away games in the league since the beginning of 2008/9.
Result: Aldershot 1, Barnet 0
Port Vale v Hereford
Slight difference here as Hereford have only drawn once in their last 20 aways in League 2 so I'm going to recommend Port Vale draw no bet and laying Hereford.
Result: Port Vale 1, Hereford 1
I'll admit it - I got lucky tonight. Late goals at Leyton Orient and Port Vale saved the day!
Friday, 18 March 2011
Free Tips For 18/19 March 2011
Four games to start the weekend with, one each from Croatia and England and two from Hungary. All kick offs GMT.
Friday
4:00pm
Croatia
Inter Zapresic v Istra 1961
The hosts are currently just about value for the win, but a home win/draw dutch should be fine. It's unlikely that Istra 1961 will keep a clean sheet - they've only done that once in ten away games this season.
Update: Mirko Kramaric scored for Inter after four minutes, game over after 26 minutes. Final score: Inter 3, Istra 1.
6:00pm
Hungary
FEHERVAR v Debrecen
There are a couple of subtle traps in this game - Debrecen haven't won away from home yet this season and the away side hasn't won in games between the top four in NB1 in 2010/2011. The visitors also have a decent record at Fehervar/Videoton (only lost one of the last five) but their away form this season hs been absolutely appalling - only Szombathely and Szolnoki MAV have worse records.
However...the last time the hosts won three consecutive home games in NB1 they lost the fourth, so prepare yourselves for a shock: dutch the home win/draw but be prepared for a surprise away win. Risk management appears to be the key here.
Update: Laszlo Lencse goal put Fehervar/Videoton ahead just after the hour, Adamo Koulibaly equalised about five minutes later.
Full time: Fehervar 2, Debrecen 1.
7:45pm
nPower League 2
Chesterfield v Rotherham United
This looks like an absolute bargain at the price it was available for on Wednesday morning - Rotherham haven't won at any of the other clubs in the current top seven and although this marks the start of a potentially tricky looking run in for Chesterfield, the Spirerites should win this.
Update: Chesterfield 5, Rotherham 0.
Saturday
2:00pm
Hungary
Lomabard Papa v Kaposvari Rakoczi
Over 2.5 goals, it's also possible that both teams might score but there seems to have been a decline in goals in NB1 since the restart after the winter break.
3:00pm
Hungary
PAKSI SE v Szombathely
Not quite as nailed on as it could be, because the visitors haven't won away this season (last away win 12 games ago) and although Paks are currently on a five game undefeated streak at home they're not exactly dominant. Guess what...a home win/draw dutch.
nPower Championship
Ipswich v Scunthorpe
Will Scunthorpe go the whole season without an away draw? There are only five opportunities to go before the end of the season and although Ipswich have won all six league games between these two since their first meeting at Portman Road in 1958, both teams are awful at the moment. Ipswich have lost their last three home games, Scunthorpe have lost seven consecutive away games - have a nibble on a draw, combined with 0-0 as the correct score.
Norwegian Tippeligaen
(The summer's here...word of warning: for the first couple of weeks, I'm going to be heavily relying on the numbers from the 2010 competition)
Viking v Valerenga
Over 2.5 definitely from a head to head perspective is highly likely, but I'll keep it simple to start with and recommend over 1.5 goals. Key stat: 60% of Viking's home games last season featured over 3.5 goals, as did 33% of Valerenga's away games.
4:00pm
Croatia
VARAZDIN v Slaven Koprivnica
Slaven have drawn their last four away games and Varazdin haven't lost at home all season: head to head shows that although the hosts have only lost one in the last ten at home, they've drawn four of those games. It's got draw written all over it...dutch home and draw.
Friday
4:00pm
Croatia
Inter Zapresic v Istra 1961
The hosts are currently just about value for the win, but a home win/draw dutch should be fine. It's unlikely that Istra 1961 will keep a clean sheet - they've only done that once in ten away games this season.
Update: Mirko Kramaric scored for Inter after four minutes, game over after 26 minutes. Final score: Inter 3, Istra 1.
6:00pm
Hungary
FEHERVAR v Debrecen
There are a couple of subtle traps in this game - Debrecen haven't won away from home yet this season and the away side hasn't won in games between the top four in NB1 in 2010/2011. The visitors also have a decent record at Fehervar/Videoton (only lost one of the last five) but their away form this season hs been absolutely appalling - only Szombathely and Szolnoki MAV have worse records.
However...the last time the hosts won three consecutive home games in NB1 they lost the fourth, so prepare yourselves for a shock: dutch the home win/draw but be prepared for a surprise away win. Risk management appears to be the key here.
Update: Laszlo Lencse goal put Fehervar/Videoton ahead just after the hour, Adamo Koulibaly equalised about five minutes later.
Full time: Fehervar 2, Debrecen 1.
7:45pm
nPower League 2
Chesterfield v Rotherham United
This looks like an absolute bargain at the price it was available for on Wednesday morning - Rotherham haven't won at any of the other clubs in the current top seven and although this marks the start of a potentially tricky looking run in for Chesterfield, the Spirerites should win this.
Update: Chesterfield 5, Rotherham 0.
Saturday
2:00pm
Hungary
Lomabard Papa v Kaposvari Rakoczi
Over 2.5 goals, it's also possible that both teams might score but there seems to have been a decline in goals in NB1 since the restart after the winter break.
3:00pm
Hungary
PAKSI SE v Szombathely
Not quite as nailed on as it could be, because the visitors haven't won away this season (last away win 12 games ago) and although Paks are currently on a five game undefeated streak at home they're not exactly dominant. Guess what...a home win/draw dutch.
nPower Championship
Ipswich v Scunthorpe
Will Scunthorpe go the whole season without an away draw? There are only five opportunities to go before the end of the season and although Ipswich have won all six league games between these two since their first meeting at Portman Road in 1958, both teams are awful at the moment. Ipswich have lost their last three home games, Scunthorpe have lost seven consecutive away games - have a nibble on a draw, combined with 0-0 as the correct score.
Norwegian Tippeligaen
(The summer's here...word of warning: for the first couple of weeks, I'm going to be heavily relying on the numbers from the 2010 competition)
Viking v Valerenga
Over 2.5 definitely from a head to head perspective is highly likely, but I'll keep it simple to start with and recommend over 1.5 goals. Key stat: 60% of Viking's home games last season featured over 3.5 goals, as did 33% of Valerenga's away games.
4:00pm
Croatia
VARAZDIN v Slaven Koprivnica
Slaven have drawn their last four away games and Varazdin haven't lost at home all season: head to head shows that although the hosts have only lost one in the last ten at home, they've drawn four of those games. It's got draw written all over it...dutch home and draw.
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 15th March
Not a bad weekend: there were only two expensive mistakes (Vasas beat Ujpest 1-0 with ten men and suddenly - at the end of the season - Greek sides remembered how to score goals) but I think the word 'satisfactory' is appropriate here, especially as Nick Watney did the business in the golf.
Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.
nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.
nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.
nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.
The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.
It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)
1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew
Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.
nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.
nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.
nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.
The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.
It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)
1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew
Tuesday, 8 March 2011
Tuesday 8th March
Blackpool v Chelsea went exactly how the numbers predicted it would (1-3), although I must admit that I thought it took Chelsea longer to score the second goal than I thought it would.
Anyway, tonight is a busy one and I'm off to a game this evening...so let's not mess about.
Tuesday
Hungary
5pm
Debrecen v Paksi SE
Back over 1.5/2.5 and don't get involved with 0-0 or outrights as there are some trap elements here. Both teams to score also looks worth taking.
Championship
All 7:45pm
Under 3.5 goals in all of the following:
Barnsley v Scunthorpe (potential home win)
Doncaster v Coventry (potential home win)
Hull v Burnley - although under 2.5 goals in this particular game would be more profitable.
Millwall v QPR
Sheff U v Nottingham Forest
Additionally, I've put this lot together using my fast and loose method, so I wouldn't go too mad with staking these: laying the away team and/or backing the home team should work in the majority of the games below. Bold represents possible home win, bold caps represents possible home banker.
League 1
Tranmere v Bristol Rovers
Huddersfield v Rochdale
Plymouth v Swindon (although looking at Plymouth's current price a home win/draw dutch could be the way forward)
League 2
CHESTERFIELD v Northampton
Bury v Morecambe
Accrington Stanley v Stockport
Stevenage v Hereford
As for Arsenal in the Champions League...the one thing that probably won't happen is that the game will finish 0-0. Over 2.5 goals looks tempting, but the challenge I've got is avoiding the score until I get home later!
Anyway, tonight is a busy one and I'm off to a game this evening...so let's not mess about.
Tuesday
Hungary
5pm
Debrecen v Paksi SE
Back over 1.5/2.5 and don't get involved with 0-0 or outrights as there are some trap elements here. Both teams to score also looks worth taking.
Championship
All 7:45pm
Under 3.5 goals in all of the following:
Barnsley v Scunthorpe (potential home win)
Doncaster v Coventry (potential home win)
Hull v Burnley - although under 2.5 goals in this particular game would be more profitable.
Millwall v QPR
Sheff U v Nottingham Forest
Additionally, I've put this lot together using my fast and loose method, so I wouldn't go too mad with staking these: laying the away team and/or backing the home team should work in the majority of the games below. Bold represents possible home win, bold caps represents possible home banker.
League 1
Tranmere v Bristol Rovers
Huddersfield v Rochdale
Plymouth v Swindon (although looking at Plymouth's current price a home win/draw dutch could be the way forward)
League 2
CHESTERFIELD v Northampton
Bury v Morecambe
Accrington Stanley v Stockport
Stevenage v Hereford
As for Arsenal in the Champions League...the one thing that probably won't happen is that the game will finish 0-0. Over 2.5 goals looks tempting, but the challenge I've got is avoiding the score until I get home later!
Monday, 14 February 2011
Free Tips For Monday and Tuesday
Superb weekend, despite PAOK starting it off by losing to Panionios. Everything else came in, the only other wobble was expecting Standard Liege to beat Genk - although to be fair, I'd suggested laying 0-0, which worked.
I'm ignoring the Champions League this week because there are a few catch up games in England that might be worth a look, so this is the only scheduled post before Friday's weekend preview.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Beira Mar v Vitoria Setubal
Beira Mar's two home defeats this season have been against Benfica and Porto, otherwise they're fairly solid at home. Vitoria's away form has improved recently, but they're probably still worth opposing.
Tuesday
I tend not to analyse British games in much detail as I used to, but as usual the basic idea is that the home wins are in bold, home bankers are in bold caps etc. All kick offs at 7:45pm.
Championship
CARDIFF v Burnley
Watford v Preston - opposing Preston could be the best play as Watford have already lost at home to Scunthorpe this season and it's the time of the season when teams at the bottom of the table have to start scrapping their away out of the relegation spots.
League 1
Exeter v Swindon
Exeter haven't lost at home against teams in the current bottom four, so this recommendation is probably more about opposing Swindon rather than backing Exeter.
OLDHAM v Carlisle
Carlisle have lost all their games played against the current top six without scoring a goal. Nice price for Oldham.
League 2
Stevenage v Oxford
The visitors are unlikely to win, but you cannot completely rule out a draw either.
ROTHERHAM v Accrington Stanley
Very similar type of game to Oldham v Carlisle - Accrington Stanley have lost against all the sides they've played in the current top six.
I'm ignoring the Champions League this week because there are a few catch up games in England that might be worth a look, so this is the only scheduled post before Friday's weekend preview.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Beira Mar v Vitoria Setubal
Beira Mar's two home defeats this season have been against Benfica and Porto, otherwise they're fairly solid at home. Vitoria's away form has improved recently, but they're probably still worth opposing.
Tuesday
I tend not to analyse British games in much detail as I used to, but as usual the basic idea is that the home wins are in bold, home bankers are in bold caps etc. All kick offs at 7:45pm.
Championship
CARDIFF v Burnley
Watford v Preston - opposing Preston could be the best play as Watford have already lost at home to Scunthorpe this season and it's the time of the season when teams at the bottom of the table have to start scrapping their away out of the relegation spots.
League 1
Exeter v Swindon
Exeter haven't lost at home against teams in the current bottom four, so this recommendation is probably more about opposing Swindon rather than backing Exeter.
OLDHAM v Carlisle
Carlisle have lost all their games played against the current top six without scoring a goal. Nice price for Oldham.
League 2
Stevenage v Oxford
The visitors are unlikely to win, but you cannot completely rule out a draw either.
ROTHERHAM v Accrington Stanley
Very similar type of game to Oldham v Carlisle - Accrington Stanley have lost against all the sides they've played in the current top six.
Friday, 8 October 2010
Something For The Weekend?
Nebraska won easily last night, so a couple of decent College Football results after last week's poor NFL run.
Another international break this weekend and to be honest there's not much looking at in terms of league football. Having said that, there are a couple of games worth looking at in the lower divisions in England, so without further ado...
nPower League 1:
I've mentioned Brighton a couple of times this season and the Seagulls are the form team in League 1 at the moment, showing a big improvement from last season. Peterborough, Bournemouth and Rochdale - none of whom were in this division last year - are also performing well. At the other end of the table Walsall and Brentford have gone backwards and I'm going to recommend Walsall for relegation.
Brighton kick off the weekend - they're playing Bournemouth on Saturday lunchtime, the game is live on Sky Sports 2 (12.15pm). Brighton haven't lost at home this season and haven't been behind at half time either but there's no value in applying the strategy with no name here. Not only that, laying Bournemouth could be expensive if the game is a draw. So I'm just going to recommend backing Brighton for promotion.
nPower League 2:
Port Vale are the form team, but Chesterfield, Shrewsbury, Rotherham and Accrington are all looking good too. At the bottom, Bradford and Hereford are struggling and considering they reached the playoffs last season, Morecambe are also doing badly, possibly due to New Stadium Syndrome. I'm backing Port Vale for promotion and Hereford to be relegated: by sheer coincidence they play each other at Edgar Street on Saturday afternoon.
Hereford's home form this season is terrible - they've not been ahead at half time and haven't won yet and I think half time is where the opportunity lies as Port Vale haven't been behind after 45 minutes. Unfortunately there's no value in it; so I'm recommending under 2.5 goals instead as Hereford are having trouble scoring.
And that's it. I'm not going to be able to monitor College Football on Saturday but I'll be posting some NFL tips at some point during the weekend, so for now - good hunting!
Another international break this weekend and to be honest there's not much looking at in terms of league football. Having said that, there are a couple of games worth looking at in the lower divisions in England, so without further ado...
nPower League 1:
I've mentioned Brighton a couple of times this season and the Seagulls are the form team in League 1 at the moment, showing a big improvement from last season. Peterborough, Bournemouth and Rochdale - none of whom were in this division last year - are also performing well. At the other end of the table Walsall and Brentford have gone backwards and I'm going to recommend Walsall for relegation.
Brighton kick off the weekend - they're playing Bournemouth on Saturday lunchtime, the game is live on Sky Sports 2 (12.15pm). Brighton haven't lost at home this season and haven't been behind at half time either but there's no value in applying the strategy with no name here. Not only that, laying Bournemouth could be expensive if the game is a draw. So I'm just going to recommend backing Brighton for promotion.
nPower League 2:
Port Vale are the form team, but Chesterfield, Shrewsbury, Rotherham and Accrington are all looking good too. At the bottom, Bradford and Hereford are struggling and considering they reached the playoffs last season, Morecambe are also doing badly, possibly due to New Stadium Syndrome. I'm backing Port Vale for promotion and Hereford to be relegated: by sheer coincidence they play each other at Edgar Street on Saturday afternoon.
Hereford's home form this season is terrible - they've not been ahead at half time and haven't won yet and I think half time is where the opportunity lies as Port Vale haven't been behind after 45 minutes. Unfortunately there's no value in it; so I'm recommending under 2.5 goals instead as Hereford are having trouble scoring.
And that's it. I'm not going to be able to monitor College Football on Saturday but I'll be posting some NFL tips at some point during the weekend, so for now - good hunting!
Thursday, 30 September 2010
Something For The Weekend 2/10/2010
Last full set of games before the next international break, I'm actually going to cautiously recommend an away win this weekend as well as give you a few games to avoid. Assume that the Strategy With No Name should be used in all games - apart from one notable exception, which I'll come to in a minute. All games kick off at 3pm GMT on Saturday afternoon.
nPower Championship
Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest
The price for a Doncaster win is tempting, especially as they've won three of the last four league meetings between these two in South Yorkshire. Forest haven't scored at Doncaster since the last time they won there - a 2-1 win in March 2006 - and although a Doncaster clean sheet might be possible under 2.5 goals might be the punt that lands the cash.
Additional information: 75% of games in the Championship have resulted in home wins/draws with an average of 2.74 goals per game...for which we have to thank Leeds and Preston. I've no idea when the last 4-6 game was, but Barnet 4, Crewe 7 happened nearly 20 years ago.
nPower League 2
Macclesfield Town v Northampton Town
This is the notable exception I mentioned above but it does come with a word of warning. Northampton have won five of the six league games between these two at Moss Rose since Macclesfield joined the Football League. Having said that, Macclesfield's home form is poor (five wins in the last 20 home league games) and the last time they won at home and Northampton won away was in April.
I don't normally go overboard on away wins but a Northampton win could be worth it even though I advised against them in their last away game, as does Under 2.5 goals.
Additional information: 75% of games in League 1 have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.42 goals per game. The relevant stat to this game is that 63% of games in League 1 have resulted in draws/away wins, which would be equivalent of decimal odds of 1.58 (4/7) - the best current price for Northampton/draw is 1.5 (1/2), which is no value whatsoever.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Morton
Another Dundee clean sheet (if you can find prices for it) looks possible but I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a Dundee win, based on the fact that Morton have only scored four goals at Dens Park in their last ten league meetings. Dundee have a very stingy defence, so under 2.5 goals looks a good bet but it may be even lower than that.
Additional information: 74% of games in the Scottish First Division have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.31 goals per game.
Leave Them Alone
Sunderland v Manchester United
United have a tremendous record at Sunderland (only one defeat in the last ten meetings) but Sunderland are very impressive at the Stadium of Light (only two defeats in the last 20 Premiership games). Could go either way, although Sunderland and the draw are good value. Might be under 2.5 goals but don't quote me.
West Ham United v Fulham
Touched on Fulham's poor away record in the Premiership last weekend and their trip across London won't be one they're looking forward to, but there are some contradictory signs here. Fulham have won two of the last ten games at Upton Park in the league (last win November 2001, six games ago), but although they haven't won away this season they've not yet lost on their travels either. Fulham's long term away form may be poor but it is consistent...which can't be said about West Ham's home form as they've gone backwards.
Tranmere Rovers v Brighton
Last Brighton win on the Wirral was in September 1976 - in the seven league meetings at Tranmere since then, Rovers have won five straight. Could be a surprise for Tranmere but Brighton have only lost twice in their last ten away games in League 1, so this is actually a bit of a puzzle along the same lines as Sunderland v Manchester United. May be a low scoring game.
Queen Of The South v Dunfermline
The Doonhamers' 2-0 win over Dunfermline last March was time that the hosts had beaten the Pars since the 85/6 season at Palmerston Park - and that was after they'd lost six of the next nine encounters. Dunfermline have only lost once in the league this season (2-0 at Raith Rovers) and although I'd be surprised if they lost this game, I've no idea how this might turn out.
nPower Championship
Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest
The price for a Doncaster win is tempting, especially as they've won three of the last four league meetings between these two in South Yorkshire. Forest haven't scored at Doncaster since the last time they won there - a 2-1 win in March 2006 - and although a Doncaster clean sheet might be possible under 2.5 goals might be the punt that lands the cash.
Additional information: 75% of games in the Championship have resulted in home wins/draws with an average of 2.74 goals per game...for which we have to thank Leeds and Preston. I've no idea when the last 4-6 game was, but Barnet 4, Crewe 7 happened nearly 20 years ago.
nPower League 2
Macclesfield Town v Northampton Town
This is the notable exception I mentioned above but it does come with a word of warning. Northampton have won five of the six league games between these two at Moss Rose since Macclesfield joined the Football League. Having said that, Macclesfield's home form is poor (five wins in the last 20 home league games) and the last time they won at home and Northampton won away was in April.
I don't normally go overboard on away wins but a Northampton win could be worth it even though I advised against them in their last away game, as does Under 2.5 goals.
Additional information: 75% of games in League 1 have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.42 goals per game. The relevant stat to this game is that 63% of games in League 1 have resulted in draws/away wins, which would be equivalent of decimal odds of 1.58 (4/7) - the best current price for Northampton/draw is 1.5 (1/2), which is no value whatsoever.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Morton
Another Dundee clean sheet (if you can find prices for it) looks possible but I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a Dundee win, based on the fact that Morton have only scored four goals at Dens Park in their last ten league meetings. Dundee have a very stingy defence, so under 2.5 goals looks a good bet but it may be even lower than that.
Additional information: 74% of games in the Scottish First Division have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.31 goals per game.
Leave Them Alone
Sunderland v Manchester United
United have a tremendous record at Sunderland (only one defeat in the last ten meetings) but Sunderland are very impressive at the Stadium of Light (only two defeats in the last 20 Premiership games). Could go either way, although Sunderland and the draw are good value. Might be under 2.5 goals but don't quote me.
West Ham United v Fulham
Touched on Fulham's poor away record in the Premiership last weekend and their trip across London won't be one they're looking forward to, but there are some contradictory signs here. Fulham have won two of the last ten games at Upton Park in the league (last win November 2001, six games ago), but although they haven't won away this season they've not yet lost on their travels either. Fulham's long term away form may be poor but it is consistent...which can't be said about West Ham's home form as they've gone backwards.
Tranmere Rovers v Brighton
Last Brighton win on the Wirral was in September 1976 - in the seven league meetings at Tranmere since then, Rovers have won five straight. Could be a surprise for Tranmere but Brighton have only lost twice in their last ten away games in League 1, so this is actually a bit of a puzzle along the same lines as Sunderland v Manchester United. May be a low scoring game.
Queen Of The South v Dunfermline
The Doonhamers' 2-0 win over Dunfermline last March was time that the hosts had beaten the Pars since the 85/6 season at Palmerston Park - and that was after they'd lost six of the next nine encounters. Dunfermline have only lost once in the league this season (2-0 at Raith Rovers) and although I'd be surprised if they lost this game, I've no idea how this might turn out.
Friday, 24 September 2010
Something For The Weekend 25/9/10
Let's get to it. Games in England and Scotland first plus a couple to avoid.
Barclays Premier League
Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic
There's always the chance of a draw when Birmingham are at home, but as they've never lost at home to Wigan in the league and have won the last three games at St. Andrews, they look good value to me. If you're going to look at this one on the exchanges, you know what I'm going to suggest...yes, dutch Birmingham and the draw. And if you really want to go mad, lay Wigan.
Fulham v Everton
Fulham are worth a straight bet; this will be Everton's second trip to West London in the past week and the last one didn't end so well - beaten by Brentford on penalties in the Carling Cup. Fulham have won ten of the last twelve and the last time there was a draw between these two at Craven Cottage was in April 1965; so a draw is overdue. Doesn't mean there'll be one: but as it's not likely to be a high scoring game then it can't be ruled out either. Dutching Fulham/draw and backing under 2.5 goals also look like they could pay out.
Additional info: 80% of games in the Premiership this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
nPower Championship
Coventry City v Preston North End
Two clubs apparently going in opposite directions. Coventry haven't lost at home this season and Preston's away record is dreadful so this looks as if it's clear cut: the problem comes with the head to head stats: the last two games between these two at the Ricoh Arena have been draws. I still think it's worth backing a Coventry win, but dutching Cov/draw might also be a profitable outcome. Preston are on my Relegation Radar but more of that in a couple of weeks.
Additional info: 72% of games in the Championship this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
nPower League 2
Morecambe v Barnet
I've already mentioned Barnet's ineptitude away from Underhill this season and there's no reason to think they're suddenly going to turn it around at Morecambe's new Globe Arena stadium. True, Morecambe started this season with three home draws (might be a spot of New Stadium Syndrome there) but they haven't lost at home since the end of January. Back Morecambe but have an insurance dutch just in case Barnet pinch a point.
Additional info: 73.8% of games in the League 2 this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
Interesting, but save your money:
nPower Championship
QPR v Doncaster
You get the feeling that if Rangers melt down at any point this season it'll be self inflicted. They won't win every game at Loftus Road this season, but as Doncaster haven't won there since February 1952 it's unlikely they'll lose this one but the problem is that a QPR win has no value. They've got Millwall next Tuesday though and they're a different kettle of fish entirely.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Albion Rovers v Elgin City
Albion have only lost once at home in their last ten games but their home record against Elgin is horrible. Three wins in the last ten indicate that perhaps you shouldn't be fooled by the short odds for Albion.
East Stirling v Berwick Rangers
Consecutive weeks on this list indicate that East Stirling could be a team to avoid in the long - the Scottish version of Brighton perhaps. Another home game where the visiting team has a far superior head to head record; East Stirling have won two of the last three games between these two at home, but Berwick won the other seven; the visitors are top of Division 3 and haven't lost so far. If I was in the Falkirk area I'd drop in and have a look at this one as it looks like an intriguing game.
Additional info: 64.5% of games in the Scottish 3rd Division this season have finished as either home wins/draws. Hmmm. Not surprising looking at the info above.
Barclays Premier League
Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic
There's always the chance of a draw when Birmingham are at home, but as they've never lost at home to Wigan in the league and have won the last three games at St. Andrews, they look good value to me. If you're going to look at this one on the exchanges, you know what I'm going to suggest...yes, dutch Birmingham and the draw. And if you really want to go mad, lay Wigan.
Fulham v Everton
Fulham are worth a straight bet; this will be Everton's second trip to West London in the past week and the last one didn't end so well - beaten by Brentford on penalties in the Carling Cup. Fulham have won ten of the last twelve and the last time there was a draw between these two at Craven Cottage was in April 1965; so a draw is overdue. Doesn't mean there'll be one: but as it's not likely to be a high scoring game then it can't be ruled out either. Dutching Fulham/draw and backing under 2.5 goals also look like they could pay out.
Additional info: 80% of games in the Premiership this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
nPower Championship
Coventry City v Preston North End
Two clubs apparently going in opposite directions. Coventry haven't lost at home this season and Preston's away record is dreadful so this looks as if it's clear cut: the problem comes with the head to head stats: the last two games between these two at the Ricoh Arena have been draws. I still think it's worth backing a Coventry win, but dutching Cov/draw might also be a profitable outcome. Preston are on my Relegation Radar but more of that in a couple of weeks.
Additional info: 72% of games in the Championship this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
nPower League 2
Morecambe v Barnet
I've already mentioned Barnet's ineptitude away from Underhill this season and there's no reason to think they're suddenly going to turn it around at Morecambe's new Globe Arena stadium. True, Morecambe started this season with three home draws (might be a spot of New Stadium Syndrome there) but they haven't lost at home since the end of January. Back Morecambe but have an insurance dutch just in case Barnet pinch a point.
Additional info: 73.8% of games in the League 2 this season have finished as either home wins/draws.
Interesting, but save your money:
nPower Championship
QPR v Doncaster
You get the feeling that if Rangers melt down at any point this season it'll be self inflicted. They won't win every game at Loftus Road this season, but as Doncaster haven't won there since February 1952 it's unlikely they'll lose this one but the problem is that a QPR win has no value. They've got Millwall next Tuesday though and they're a different kettle of fish entirely.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Albion Rovers v Elgin City
Albion have only lost once at home in their last ten games but their home record against Elgin is horrible. Three wins in the last ten indicate that perhaps you shouldn't be fooled by the short odds for Albion.
East Stirling v Berwick Rangers
Consecutive weeks on this list indicate that East Stirling could be a team to avoid in the long - the Scottish version of Brighton perhaps. Another home game where the visiting team has a far superior head to head record; East Stirling have won two of the last three games between these two at home, but Berwick won the other seven; the visitors are top of Division 3 and haven't lost so far. If I was in the Falkirk area I'd drop in and have a look at this one as it looks like an intriguing game.
Additional info: 64.5% of games in the Scottish 3rd Division this season have finished as either home wins/draws. Hmmm. Not surprising looking at the info above.
Sunday, 12 September 2010
Saturday's Results
Not a bad Saturday - three wins out of five and only one real disaster - and my wife and I got back from apple picking with loads of apples, both eaters and cookers. Anyway, here's the rundown from yesterday:
* Straight From Biff Tannen's Sporting Almanac:
Wigan 1, Sunderland 1
QPR 3, Middlesbrough 0
Lincoln 1, Barnet 0
* Sounded Like A Good Idea, But It Wasn't:
Ruud van Nistelrooy didn't score.
* Totally, Utterly, Completely and Hopelessly Wrong:
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 4.
* Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City 1, Blackburn 1
Told you.
West Ham 1, Chelsea 3
I thought it would have been tighter, but as the last two goals came in the final seven minutes Over 2.5 would have been the right call but then again, I lost nothing.
Brighton 2, Milton Keynes 0
The Seagulls remain an enigma: if they come up in the next couple of weeks it might be time for a spot of unorthodox thinking.
* Streaks
The streaks involving Bolton, Hamilton and Portsmouth continue. The next time Hamilton play Rangers at home is April 9th.
I'll be back later with a quick look at how the College Football teams I'm backing got on yesterday and with some NFL picks for later on.
Incidentally, the current Betfair profit for the month is £23.97 ($36.82) - all of which is American Football or laying horses as the Borussia Mönchengladbach game reduced my football profit to minus 2p, which is break even in any other language.
* Straight From Biff Tannen's Sporting Almanac:
Wigan 1, Sunderland 1
QPR 3, Middlesbrough 0
Lincoln 1, Barnet 0
* Sounded Like A Good Idea, But It Wasn't:
Ruud van Nistelrooy didn't score.
* Totally, Utterly, Completely and Hopelessly Wrong:
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 4.
* Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City 1, Blackburn 1
Told you.
West Ham 1, Chelsea 3
I thought it would have been tighter, but as the last two goals came in the final seven minutes Over 2.5 would have been the right call but then again, I lost nothing.
Brighton 2, Milton Keynes 0
The Seagulls remain an enigma: if they come up in the next couple of weeks it might be time for a spot of unorthodox thinking.
* Streaks
The streaks involving Bolton, Hamilton and Portsmouth continue. The next time Hamilton play Rangers at home is April 9th.
I'll be back later with a quick look at how the College Football teams I'm backing got on yesterday and with some NFL picks for later on.
Incidentally, the current Betfair profit for the month is £23.97 ($36.82) - all of which is American Football or laying horses as the Borussia Mönchengladbach game reduced my football profit to minus 2p, which is break even in any other language.
Friday, 10 September 2010
SFTW 11/12 September 2010
You can tell it's mid September...it's getting darker earlier and decent opportunities are falling like leaves from the trees and I've spent a couple of hours this week crunching some numbers with my ancient copy of Excel 2003 - I don't particularly like the newest version but as long as you can colour some boxes in with a bit of conditional formatting I'm happy.
Off we go then...first stop North Rhein-Westphalia in Western Germany!
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga, 2:30pm GMT)
This one came up while I was doing some research for a blog I was writing for Soccerlens.com and it looks like a good opportunity to use the Strategy With No Name (dutch the home team/draw) plus a straight win bet for Borussia MGB. Mönchengladbach have a fairly decent home record in the Bundesliga (two defeats in their last ten home games and a 6-3 away win at Bayer Leverkusen before the international break) but although there's a relatively high chance of a draw in this game, once the draw reduction formula is applied the hosts look like a good prospect.
Recommendation: back Borussia Mönchengladbach at anything better than evens.
Wigan v Sunderland (Barclays Premier League, 3:00pm GMT)
Under 2.5 goals looks good here - despite Wigan's atrocious performances in their first two home games, they will be hoping to repeat their performance against Spurs a couple of weeks ago. They've kept four clean sheets in their last seven home league games against Sunderland; the visitors have been shut out in nine of their last twelve away games in the Premiership.
Recommendation: back Under 2.5 goals
QPR v Middlesbrough (nPower Championship, 3:00pm GMT)
Middlesbrough had never won at Loftus Road until last season, when they destroyed Rangers 5-1. I don't think that's going to happen again, but unfortunately it's not possible to lay that score on Betfair (and 'any other unquoted' covers a multitude of sins) so it's a case of using the Strategy With No Name and having a straight bet on a QPR win.
Recommendation: back QPR at anything better than evens.
Lincoln City v Barnet (nPower League 2, 3:00pm GMT)
The Imps don't have the best home record I've ever seen, but Barnet's away form is atrocious - 17 defeats in the last 20 games by an average of 2.2 goals, including a 7-0 thrashing by Crewe in their last game. Not only that, Lincoln have dominated this fixture in recent seasons (eight wins in the last nine games at Sincil Bank) so this looks like a good one to me.
Recommendation: back Lincoln at anything better than evens.
Sounds Like A Good Idea, But More Research Needed:
Ruud van Nistelrooy to score the first goal in the Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Nuremburg - his anytime scorer odds aren't that bad either. Min. stakes at the best price you can find - the bookies seem unsure about the odds for first goal, I've backed him for £1 at 5/1 on bet365 (LOL, big time bet there!)
Didn't Make The Cut But Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City v Blackburn (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Similar to the above - Blackburn can be tough to break down defensively and recently City have either been scoring a hatful or none at all at the City of Manchester Stadium.
West Ham v Chelsea (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Anyone expecting a goal fest might be disappointed - there has been a history of +2.5 in this game, but both of the last two encounters between these two at Upton Park have been under. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham make a game of it but still end up losing; opposing managers will be keen to stress exactly how important it is to defend effectively against Chelsea.
Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons (nPower League 1, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Limited amount of head to head data which is skewed somewhat by the fact that MK have never drawn a game at Brighton. I'm seriously thinking of disregarding Brighton completely in future weeks if their numbers don't start looking vaguely normal.
Birmingham City v Liverpool (Barclays Premiership, Sunday 4:00pm GMT)
The recommendation I had from elsewhere was that Under 2.5 goals was the way forward in this game, but Over 1.5 looks a better prospect...until you look at the prices. It might be worth getting the stopwatch out on Sunday afternoon and using the ten minutes with no goals trading strategy but I may not be in front of the TV at that point.
A couple of weird stats from my research this week:
* The last time Bolton drew 0-0 at Arsenal and the last time Hamilton beat Rangers at home? Before World War II.
* Portsmouth haven't beaten Ipswich in a league game at Fratton Park since October 1966. That's a 12 game streak that might not end tomorrow.
Unfortunately due to a prior appointment (apple picking!) I'm not going to be about tomorrow but if I get time on Sunday I'll post some NFL picks. I've also been working on some Champions League stuff but I might wait until the latter stages before parting with any cash; it's worth remembering that as it's a tournament there are some interesting strategies to deploy plus there are tons of markets available. Interesting to see that CFR Cluj are the rank outsiders: Steaua Bucharest won the competition back in the 1980s and they're from Romania too.
Anyway, good luck!
Off we go then...first stop North Rhein-Westphalia in Western Germany!
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga, 2:30pm GMT)
This one came up while I was doing some research for a blog I was writing for Soccerlens.com and it looks like a good opportunity to use the Strategy With No Name (dutch the home team/draw) plus a straight win bet for Borussia MGB. Mönchengladbach have a fairly decent home record in the Bundesliga (two defeats in their last ten home games and a 6-3 away win at Bayer Leverkusen before the international break) but although there's a relatively high chance of a draw in this game, once the draw reduction formula is applied the hosts look like a good prospect.
Recommendation: back Borussia Mönchengladbach at anything better than evens.
Wigan v Sunderland (Barclays Premier League, 3:00pm GMT)
Under 2.5 goals looks good here - despite Wigan's atrocious performances in their first two home games, they will be hoping to repeat their performance against Spurs a couple of weeks ago. They've kept four clean sheets in their last seven home league games against Sunderland; the visitors have been shut out in nine of their last twelve away games in the Premiership.
Recommendation: back Under 2.5 goals
QPR v Middlesbrough (nPower Championship, 3:00pm GMT)
Middlesbrough had never won at Loftus Road until last season, when they destroyed Rangers 5-1. I don't think that's going to happen again, but unfortunately it's not possible to lay that score on Betfair (and 'any other unquoted' covers a multitude of sins) so it's a case of using the Strategy With No Name and having a straight bet on a QPR win.
Recommendation: back QPR at anything better than evens.
Lincoln City v Barnet (nPower League 2, 3:00pm GMT)
The Imps don't have the best home record I've ever seen, but Barnet's away form is atrocious - 17 defeats in the last 20 games by an average of 2.2 goals, including a 7-0 thrashing by Crewe in their last game. Not only that, Lincoln have dominated this fixture in recent seasons (eight wins in the last nine games at Sincil Bank) so this looks like a good one to me.
Recommendation: back Lincoln at anything better than evens.
Sounds Like A Good Idea, But More Research Needed:
Ruud van Nistelrooy to score the first goal in the Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Nuremburg - his anytime scorer odds aren't that bad either. Min. stakes at the best price you can find - the bookies seem unsure about the odds for first goal, I've backed him for £1 at 5/1 on bet365 (LOL, big time bet there!)
Didn't Make The Cut But Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City v Blackburn (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Similar to the above - Blackburn can be tough to break down defensively and recently City have either been scoring a hatful or none at all at the City of Manchester Stadium.
West Ham v Chelsea (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Anyone expecting a goal fest might be disappointed - there has been a history of +2.5 in this game, but both of the last two encounters between these two at Upton Park have been under. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham make a game of it but still end up losing; opposing managers will be keen to stress exactly how important it is to defend effectively against Chelsea.
Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons (nPower League 1, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Limited amount of head to head data which is skewed somewhat by the fact that MK have never drawn a game at Brighton. I'm seriously thinking of disregarding Brighton completely in future weeks if their numbers don't start looking vaguely normal.
Birmingham City v Liverpool (Barclays Premiership, Sunday 4:00pm GMT)
The recommendation I had from elsewhere was that Under 2.5 goals was the way forward in this game, but Over 1.5 looks a better prospect...until you look at the prices. It might be worth getting the stopwatch out on Sunday afternoon and using the ten minutes with no goals trading strategy but I may not be in front of the TV at that point.
A couple of weird stats from my research this week:
* The last time Bolton drew 0-0 at Arsenal and the last time Hamilton beat Rangers at home? Before World War II.
* Portsmouth haven't beaten Ipswich in a league game at Fratton Park since October 1966. That's a 12 game streak that might not end tomorrow.
Unfortunately due to a prior appointment (apple picking!) I'm not going to be about tomorrow but if I get time on Sunday I'll post some NFL picks. I've also been working on some Champions League stuff but I might wait until the latter stages before parting with any cash; it's worth remembering that as it's a tournament there are some interesting strategies to deploy plus there are tons of markets available. Interesting to see that CFR Cluj are the rank outsiders: Steaua Bucharest won the competition back in the 1980s and they're from Romania too.
Anyway, good luck!
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