SFTW 11/12 September 2010

You can tell it's mid September...it's getting darker earlier and decent opportunities are falling like leaves from the trees and I've spent a couple of hours this week crunching some numbers with my ancient copy of Excel 2003 - I don't particularly like the newest version but as long as you can colour some boxes in with a bit of conditional formatting I'm happy.

Off we go then...first stop North Rhein-Westphalia in Western Germany!

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga, 2:30pm GMT)
This one came up while I was doing some research for a blog I was writing for Soccerlens.com and it looks like a good opportunity to use the Strategy With No Name (dutch the home team/draw) plus a straight win bet for Borussia MGB. Mönchengladbach have a fairly decent home record in the Bundesliga (two defeats in their last ten home games and a 6-3 away win at Bayer Leverkusen before the international break) but although there's a relatively high chance of a draw in this game, once the draw reduction formula is applied the hosts look like a good prospect.
Recommendation: back Borussia Mönchengladbach at anything better than evens.


Wigan v Sunderland (Barclays Premier League, 3:00pm GMT)
Under 2.5 goals looks good here - despite Wigan's atrocious performances in their first two home games, they will be hoping to repeat their performance against Spurs a couple of weeks ago. They've kept four clean sheets in their last seven home league games against Sunderland; the visitors have been shut out in nine of their last twelve away games in the Premiership.
Recommendation: back Under 2.5 goals


QPR v Middlesbrough (nPower Championship, 3:00pm GMT)
Middlesbrough had never won at Loftus Road until last season, when they destroyed Rangers 5-1. I don't think that's going to happen again, but unfortunately it's not possible to lay that score on Betfair (and 'any other unquoted' covers a multitude of sins) so it's a case of using the Strategy With No Name and having a straight bet on a QPR win.
Recommendation: back QPR at anything better than evens.


Lincoln City v Barnet (nPower League 2, 3:00pm GMT)
The Imps don't have the best home record I've ever seen, but Barnet's away form is atrocious - 17 defeats in the last 20 games by an average of 2.2 goals, including a 7-0 thrashing by Crewe in their last game. Not only that, Lincoln have dominated this fixture in recent seasons (eight wins in the last nine games at Sincil Bank) so this looks like a good one to me.
Recommendation: back Lincoln at anything better than evens.


Sounds Like A Good Idea, But More Research Needed:
Ruud van Nistelrooy to score the first goal in the Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Nuremburg - his anytime scorer odds aren't that bad either. Min. stakes at the best price you can find - the bookies seem unsure about the odds for first goal, I've backed him for £1 at 5/1 on bet365 (LOL, big time bet there!)


Didn't Make The Cut But Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City v Blackburn (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Similar to the above - Blackburn can be tough to break down defensively and recently City have either been scoring a hatful or none at all at the City of Manchester Stadium.


West Ham v Chelsea (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Anyone expecting a goal fest might be disappointed - there has been a history of +2.5 in this game, but both of the last two encounters between these two at Upton Park have been under. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham make a game of it but still end up losing; opposing managers will be keen to stress exactly how important it is to defend effectively against Chelsea.


Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons (nPower League 1, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Limited amount of head to head data which is skewed somewhat by the fact that MK have never drawn a game at Brighton. I'm seriously thinking of disregarding Brighton completely in future weeks if their numbers don't start looking vaguely normal.

Birmingham City v Liverpool (Barclays Premiership, Sunday 4:00pm GMT)

The recommendation I had from elsewhere was that Under 2.5 goals was the way forward in this game, but Over 1.5 looks a better prospect...until you look at the prices. It might be worth getting the stopwatch out on Sunday afternoon and using the ten minutes with no goals trading strategy but I may not be in front of the TV at that point.


A couple of weird stats from my research this week:


* The last time Bolton drew 0-0 at Arsenal and the last time Hamilton beat Rangers at home? Before World War II.


* Portsmouth haven't beaten Ipswich in a league game at Fratton Park since October 1966. That's a 12 game streak that might not end tomorrow.

Unfortunately due to a prior appointment (apple picking!) I'm not going to be about tomorrow but if I get time on Sunday I'll post some NFL picks. I've also been working on some Champions League stuff but I might wait until the latter stages before parting with any cash; it's worth remembering that as it's a tournament there are some interesting strategies to deploy plus there are tons of markets available. Interesting to see that CFR Cluj are the rank outsiders: Steaua Bucharest won the competition back in the 1980s and they're from Romania too.

Anyway, good luck!