Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Friday, 18 March 2011
Random Champions League Facts
Barcelona (3)
Winners in 1992, 2006 and 2009; runners up 1994
Chelsea (0)
Runners up in 2008
Manchester United (3)
Winners in 1999 and 2008, runners up in 2009
Real Madrid (9)
Winners in 1998, 2000 and 2002
Schalke (0)
Quarter finals in 2008
Shaktar Donetsk (0)
Group stage three times
Spurs (0)
First season in the Champions League - reached semis of the European Cup in 1961/62.
Inter Milan (3)
Winners in 2010
One thing sticks out straight away - the four clubs who haven't won the Champions League have all won other European competitions.
Since reorganisation, finals between the remaining nations have shaken out like this:
3:
Spain v Italy (Spanish clubs won twice)
2:
England/Italy (one win each; both games were between Liverpool and Milan)
Spain/England (Barcelona won both)
Germany/Italy (one win each)
Germany/Spain (one win each)
1:
England/Germany (Manchester United won)
England/England (Manchester United won)
Spain/Spain (Real Madrid won)
It's highly likely that one of these combinations will be this season's final - the only wildcard are Shaktar Donetsk.
Wembley finals: English clubs have won two of the five finals at Wembley, the only other nation left in the tournament that has provided more than one finalist is Italy. Only one Spanish team has played in (and won) a final at Wembley - Barcelona in 1992.
Spanish clubs have won the last three finals they've played in. The last Spanish club to lose a final was Valencia in 2001: Barcelona haven't lost a final since 1994, Real Madrid since 1981.
The Premier League has provided half of the last ten finalists but only one winner - and that was from the all English final in 2008.
English, German and Italian clubs have all lost more finals than they've won since the European Cup was re-launched as the Champions League.
Since 1990/91, only two teams have won the Champions League in their own country - Juventus in 1996 and Borussia Dortmund in 1997. Worryingly for Chelsea and Spurs, those victories were not in either Turin or Dortmund.
Sunday, 13 March 2011
Tips For Sunday 13th March
3:00pm
Cardiff v Barnsley
The incentive for the win is leapfrogging their rivals into second place, but Cardiff's win price doesn't represent any value and there doesn't seem to be a team that's capable of challenging QPR at the top - despite multiple opportunities that have been given to the chasing pack.
The safest bet is Barnsley not to keep a clean sheet/Cardiff to score, but backing over 1.5 goals is what I'm going to go with.
Greece
3:15pm
AEK v Kavala
AEK weren't one of my favourite teams a few weeks ago when they screwed up against Aris and Panionios, but they are one of the better teams at home in Greece - having said that, Kavala have improved away from home this season and as AEK's price doesn't really represent value I'm going to dutch AEK/draw. Key stat may be that AEK have won the last six home league games against Kavala.
Hungary
4:30pm
Vasas v Ujpest
Having lost four of the last five league games at home to Ujpest, this looks as if it might be a decent chance for three points for the hosts. However, over 1.5 goals and both teams to score look more likely so I'm going with them.
Tuesday, 14 December 2010
Mixed Night For Champions League Hopefuls
Suffice to say I am not pleased at all with that result: there are now two teams on my Champions League blacklist - Inter Milan (I could have told them that appointing Rafa Benitez was a mistake - if the rumours are to believed he'll be out of a job before Christmas, with Fabio Capello favourite to take over) and Valencia. Don't even consider backing either of them to appear at Wembley next May.
I'm working on this weekend's tips right now, they'll be up as soon as I've finished them.
Tuesday, 14 September 2010
Champions League Tips
Based on various different angles referred to below, with the addition of some logic and a bit of probability, there’s a pretty good chance that a Spanish team will win the Champions League, possibly beating an Italian team that almost definitely won’t be Inter Milan.
I told you it was vague! Here are some insights.
* Winning Nation: dutch Spain and England for this - 14 of the last 20 winners (70%) of the winners have come from these countries. Back to back Italian winners is unlikely.
* First Time Winner: no, although I wouldn't go mad with the stake or your liability as there's a lot of support for Chelsea.
* All English Final: no, even though there's been one recently (2008). Interestingly, only three of the last twenty finals have been contested by teams from the same country and none of those were played in the country where the country where the finalists came from.
* Emphasising the point directly above, since 1990/91, two finals have been held in
* The winners from the previous season have reached the final the following season on four occasions - AC Milan (94/5),
* Last year was the first season since 2001/02 that a German side had reached the semi final, and the first time since 2002/03 that an English side hadn’t.
Monday, 13 September 2010
Three Out Of Three...Just
The group stages of the Champions League starts tomorrow and there are a few interesting markets that I might get involved with but more about that tomorrow - including the vaguest prediction I've probably ever made.
BTW, Betfair profit for the month is now £41.07 ($63.34) - almost time to move some of that back into my bank account.
Tuesday, 17 August 2010
Wise After The Event...Again!
Norkopping are joint top with GIF Sundsvall with nine games left to play; the pair of them have a seven point lead over a pack of teams chasing the promotion playoff place. Vasby are currently in one of the two automatic relegation positions, two points ahead of Trollhatten but three points behind Osters.
And guess what? The game is not only a top v bottom game, but also a Norkopping/draw half time dutching opportunity - even down to Vasby not having been in the lead at half time away from home this season. Interestingly enough though, I'm not sure that I'm going to recycle the money if the dutch wins as a Norkopping win doesn't hold much value at all - I've priced them up at 1.67 (about 4/6) favourites which is nowhere near the 1.33 (1/3) that a lot of the bookies have them at.
Tuesday night's games were interesting - Bohemians beat Bray as predicted, but only by 2-0. Missed opportunities for under 2.5 and a Bohemians clean sheet? Possibly, but it shows that bookies are fallible and there's a certain amount of (unpaid) satisfaction in that. Cambridge United drew 2-2 with Crawley: all four goals came in the first half an hour. The draw was available for 3.4 (12/5) but I'd priced it at evens; very much food for thought for later in the season.
The Champions League games were close - and I'll be keeping a close eye on Rosenborg's game at FC Copenhagen next week to see if the Norwegians qualify for the group stages, which will be played at the same time as the Eliteserien comes to a climax.
I've got some watching brief games in England and Scotland for the weekend, as I'm not going to be around for them (I've got a birthday bash to attend) I'll post them with some reaction next week.
Sunday, 15 August 2010
Small Stakes, Big Fun
Having said that, the insurance bets I placed over the past week showed a profit of £2.36 so the overall profit figure was £5.84. I also had a punt on a whim (Billy Sharp anytime goalscorer for Doncaster Rovers v. Bristol City) which came in spectacularly when Sharp scored a late equaliser from the penalty spot but I'm not going to count that one as it was a gut reaction that wasn't based on planning and organisation. Oh and winning the same bet last year.
The next decision is what to do with the cash. To be honest, £5.84 won't even buy you a couple of pints or a packet of cigarettes these days so the wisest choice is to re-invest it; I've opened trading positions on the Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1 and the Premiership but I'm not really going to take much notice of what's happening with individual leagues right now.
Talking of the Premiership, my wife bought me 'The Premier Football Betting Handbook 2010/11' by Matt Finnigan and Pete Nordsted for my birthday and even though I've not had much time to get stuck into it, based on having read the book they wrote about World Cup betting and Mr. Nordsted's book 'Mastering Betfair' I would thoroughly recommend it. I kept an eye on some of the advice they recommend during yesterday's Premiership games and there were a couple that looked very promising that came up trumps. I personally think that it's far too early to get involved with individual games in either the Premiership or the Football League at the moment, but that's purely because of the way my system works. In any case, it's fun keeping an eye on how competitions develop before getting involved with them - there are plenty of opportunities in the summer leagues, although they've been few and far between over the last couple of days.
A couple of dates for the diary: the draws for the group stages of both the Champions League and the Europa League take place on consecutive days at the end of the month - UCL draw is on August 26th and the Europa League draw is the following day.
I've also modified my horse laying system a little and that seems to be working, but once again I'm not thinking of posting any recommendations until they start showing a profit. There won't be any football recommendations tomorrow but there may be a racing one; I'm off to do investigate that now.
Thursday, 27 May 2010
The Season In England Comes To A Close
Friday, 21 May 2010
Swan Song In Madrid?
Blackpool and Cardiff kick off first, so let's start there. I think Cardiff will win and get promoted to the Premiership but that's not something I'm going to trade. These games have been extremely tight over the past few seasons - the average margin of victory over the last 20 games is 1.35 goals, five of the last seven games have finished 1-0 and the losing side has failed to score in ten of the last thirteen. Having written all that, I have a feeling that both teams may score - but if they do, remember that there's a correlation between both sides scoring and the game going to extra time. The last four games where both teams scored went to extra time and two of those went to penalty shoot outs.
Being naturally risk averse (that will become much clearer next season), I'm going to trade the following markets:
* Lay under 0.5 goals. There is always at least one goal in 90 minutes in these games - even if it's only one. In that case, it's also logical to lay 0-0 - it's extremely unlikely that will happen.
* Back over 1.5 goals - but remember, that's the same as laying under 1.5 goals, but you'll probably get better odds that way round (even if the potential liability is higher)
* Back under 3.5 goals and under 4.5 goals. Once again, that's the same as laying over 3.5 goals...well, you get the picture.
The one market I'm leaving well alone is Over/Under 2.5 goals. The logic I've presented above indicates my belief that there will be at least one goal but there probably won't be more than three; that also rules in scores like 1-0 (five of the last seven games, remember?), 1-1 (here's where it's likely to go to extra time at least) and 2-1 (which is a really common score in English football but hasn't happened in a Championship play off final since the end of the 1995/6 season - and that was after extra time)
One last point before moving on to Inter v Bayern: this season, Cardiff scored 58% of their goals in the league before 50 minutes and Blackpool scored 64% of their goals after 50 minutes. In that case it might be reasonable to assume that the longer the game goes without a goal, the more likely Blackpool are to nick it; a Cardiff goal in the first 20 minutes is a distinct possibility.
The average margin of victory in European Cup/Champions League finals is 1.15 goals but there are no current scoring sequences like there are in the Championship playoff final.
In actual fact, there's something to be said for looking for trading opportunities in the same goal markets as the Blackpool v Cardiff game. In fact, there is a recent trend for both teams to score in the Champions League final - Barcelona's 2-0 win over Manchester United last season was the first time that only the winners had scored since Porto's win over Monaco in 2004. Porto's manager that day: Jose Mourinho.
Both Mourinho and his Bayern counterpart Louis Van Gaal have won the competition, but if you're looking for intangibles it's probably worth remembering that although Bayern Munich won in 2001, Inter have not won since their 1965 win over Benfica and haven't appeared in the final since they lost to Ajax in 1972: their local rivals AC Milan have played in seven of the last 20 finals and have won four of them. Having won five consecutive Serie A titles, a win for Inter tomorrow night would make the point that the balance of power in Italy has changed: unfortunately for them, it might also be Mourinho's swansong with the Nerazzuri and a chance for him to establish a myth in the stadium which is rumoured to be his new home...
Wednesday, 28 April 2010
A Saturday Night In May In Madrid: Bayern v Inter
Tuesday, 27 April 2010
There Were Goals...But Lyon Didn't Get Any!
I need to take to my own advice. I took the wrong direction and went with my ‘Bayern won’t keep a clean sheet’ concept rather than the ‘lay 0-0’ idea.
There was a clean sheet: Bayern kept it as they demolished
As for Barcelona v Inter Milan, I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen so I am going to sit back and just enjoy the game.
Monday, 26 April 2010
Bayern v Lyon: There Will Be Goals...But How Many?
My Will (25/1) was pulled up, you can’t really get further away from a win than that can you?
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Twist Magic Refuses To Race, Barcelona Refuse To Defend...
So it was up to Brentford to provide the win today - but even that wasn't particularly straightforward as there was about seven minutes of injury time.
I can't actually find anything that fits the bill for either backing or laying so I'm leaving Wednesday's racing alone. I'm recommending Bayern Munich to beat Lyon but I'm just going to watch the game and do some prep for this weekend rather than looking for any opportunities.