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Showing posts with label Champions League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Champions League. Show all posts

Friday, 18 March 2011

Random Champions League Facts

Here's a quick round up of the Champions League Quarter Finalists - figures in brackets represent how many times the club has won the European Cup/Champions League, the notes below the names represent success in the Champions League only.

Barcelona (3)
Winners in 1992, 2006 and 2009; runners up 1994
Chelsea (0)
Runners up in 2008
Manchester United (3)
Winners in 1999 and 2008, runners up in 2009
Real Madrid (9)
Winners in 1998, 2000 and 2002
Schalke (0)
Quarter finals in 2008
Shaktar Donetsk (0)
Group stage three times
Spurs (0)
First season in the Champions League - reached semis of the European Cup in 1961/62.
Inter Milan (3)
Winners in 2010

One thing sticks out straight away - the four clubs who haven't won the Champions League have all won other European competitions.

Since reorganisation, finals between the remaining nations have shaken out like this: 
3:
Spain v Italy (Spanish clubs won twice)
2:
England/Italy (one win each; both games were between Liverpool and Milan)
Spain/England (Barcelona won both)
Germany/Italy (one win each)
Germany/Spain (one win each)
1:
England/Germany (Manchester United won)
England/England (Manchester United won)
Spain/Spain (Real Madrid won)

It's highly likely that one of these combinations will be this season's final - the only wildcard are Shaktar Donetsk.

Wembley finals: English clubs have won two of the five finals at Wembley, the only other nation left in the tournament that has provided more than one finalist is Italy. Only one Spanish team has played in (and won) a final at Wembley - Barcelona in 1992.

Spanish clubs have won the last three finals they've played in. The last Spanish club to lose a final was Valencia in 2001: Barcelona haven't lost a final since 1994, Real Madrid since 1981.

The Premier League has provided half of the last ten finalists but only one winner - and that was from the all English final in 2008.

English, German and Italian clubs have all lost more finals than they've won since the European Cup was re-launched as the Champions League.

Since 1990/91, only two teams have won the Champions League in their own country - Juventus in 1996 and Borussia Dortmund in 1997. Worryingly for Chelsea and Spurs, those victories were not in either Turin or Dortmund.

Sunday, 13 March 2011

Tips For Sunday 13th March

The 'Rough & Ready' system threw up the following game from the nPower Championship, but I've put a bit more analytical effort this morning.


3:00pm
Cardiff v Barnsley
The incentive for the win is leapfrogging their rivals into second place, but Cardiff's win price doesn't represent any value and there doesn't seem to be a team that's capable of challenging QPR at the top - despite multiple opportunities that have been given to the chasing pack.


The safest bet is Barnsley not to keep a clean sheet/Cardiff to score, but backing over 1.5 goals is what I'm going to go with.


Greece
3:15pm
AEK v Kavala
AEK weren't one of my favourite teams a few weeks ago when they screwed up against Aris and Panionios, but they are one of the better teams at home in Greece - having said that, Kavala have improved away from home this season and as AEK's price doesn't really represent value I'm going to dutch AEK/draw. Key stat may be that AEK have won the last six home league games against Kavala.


Hungary
4:30pm
Vasas v Ujpest
Having lost four of the last five league games at home to Ujpest, this looks as if it might be a decent chance for three points for the hosts. However, over 1.5 goals and both teams to score look more likely so I'm going with them.

Tuesday, 14 December 2010

Mixed Night For Champions League Hopefuls

Manchester United beat Arsenal 1-0, but I've got no idea what Valencia were doing last night. 3-1 up at half time and with half an hour to go, they ended up dropping two points at home to Osasuna when Carlos Aranda scored the equaliser with three minutes left.

Suffice to say I am not pleased at all with that result: there are now two teams on my Champions League blacklist - Inter Milan (I could have told them that appointing Rafa Benitez was a mistake - if the rumours are to believed he'll be out of a job before Christmas, with Fabio Capello favourite to take over) and Valencia. Don't even consider backing either of them to appear at Wembley next May.

I'm working on this weekend's tips right now, they'll be up as soon as I've finished them.

Tuesday, 14 September 2010

Champions League Tips

The group stage of the Champions League starts again this evening, but there are certain markets that I'm not going to even consider entering until the knock out stage starts. So here's the vague prediction I promised:


Based on various different angles referred to below, with the addition of some logic and a bit of probability, there’s a pretty good chance that a Spanish team will win the Champions League, possibly beating an Italian team that almost definitely won’t be Inter Milan.


I told you it was vague! Here are some insights.


* Winning Nation: dutch Spain and England for this - 14 of the last 20 winners (70%) of the winners have come from these countries. Back to back Italian winners is unlikely.


* First Time Winner: no, although I wouldn't go mad with the stake or your liability as there's a lot of support for Chelsea.


* All English Final: no, even though there's been one recently (2008). Interestingly, only three of the last twenty finals have been contested by teams from the same country and none of those were played in the country where the country where the finalists came from.


* Emphasising the point directly above, since 1990/91, two finals have been held in England and Italian sides lost them both. In that period, three finals have been held in the UK and Spanish teams won two of them. Further strengthening the case for a Spanish win.


* The winners from the previous season have reached the final the following season on four occasions - AC Milan (94/5), Ajax (95/6), Juventus (96/7) and Manchester United (08/9). So it looks unlikely that Inter Milan will even reach the final, even more so when you remember that no team has ever won back to back Champions Leagues.


* Last year was the first season since 2001/02 that a German side had reached the semi final, and the first time since 2002/03 that an English side hadn’t.

Monday, 13 September 2010

Three Out Of Three...Just

New England, Chicago and Tennessee all won, although Detroit almost pulled off a major surprise in Chicago - what appeared to be a dodgy decision at the end of the game prevented the visitors from recording their first away win since 2007.

The group stages of the Champions League starts tomorrow and there are a few interesting markets that I might get involved with but more about that tomorrow - including the vaguest prediction I've probably ever made.

BTW, Betfair profit for the month is now £41.07 ($63.34) - almost time to move some of that back into my bank account.

Tuesday, 17 August 2010

Wise After The Event...Again!

Off to Sweden for the first time for a while: a classic top v bottom encounter when Norkopping take on Vasby United in the Superettan, which is the second tier of Swedish football. I need to find the umlauts in Verdana - both Norkopping and Vasby have them.


Norkopping are joint top with GIF Sundsvall with nine games left to play; the pair of them have a seven point lead over a pack of teams chasing the promotion playoff place. Vasby are currently in one of the two automatic relegation positions, two points ahead of Trollhatten but three points behind Osters.


And guess what? The game is not only a top v bottom game, but also a Norkopping/draw half time dutching opportunity - even down to Vasby not having been in the lead at half time away from home this season. Interestingly enough though, I'm not sure that I'm going to recycle the money if the dutch wins as a Norkopping win doesn't hold much value at all - I've priced them up at 1.67 (about 4/6) favourites which is nowhere near the 1.33 (1/3) that a lot of the bookies have them at.


Tuesday night's games were interesting - Bohemians beat Bray as predicted, but only by 2-0. Missed opportunities for under 2.5 and a Bohemians clean sheet? Possibly, but it shows that bookies are fallible and there's a certain amount of (unpaid) satisfaction in that. Cambridge United drew 2-2 with Crawley: all four goals came in the first half an hour. The draw was available for 3.4 (12/5) but I'd priced it at evens; very much food for thought for later in the season.


The Champions League games were close - and I'll be keeping a close eye on Rosenborg's game at FC Copenhagen next week to see if the Norwegians qualify for the group stages, which will be played at the same time as the Eliteserien comes to a climax.


I've got some watching brief games in England and Scotland for the weekend, as I'm not going to be around for them (I've got a birthday bash to attend) I'll post them with some reaction next week.

Sunday, 15 August 2010

Small Stakes, Big Fun

I made a total profit on Betfair for the week of £3.48 over the last seven days, not bad considering I only tanked on two bets, both of which happened yesterday - neither Shimizu S-Pulse or Zenit St. Petersburg won their games - the Zenit game was a mistake on my part (I should have dutched win/draw) but I thought Shimizu were good for an outright win.

Having said that, the insurance bets I placed over the past week showed a profit  of £2.36 so the overall profit figure was £5.84. I also had a punt on a whim (Billy Sharp anytime goalscorer for Doncaster Rovers v. Bristol City) which came in spectacularly when Sharp scored a late equaliser from the penalty spot but I'm not going to count that one as it was a gut reaction that wasn't based on planning and organisation. Oh and winning the same bet last year.

The next decision is what to do with the cash. To be honest, £5.84 won't even buy you a couple of pints or a packet of cigarettes these days so the wisest choice is to re-invest it; I've opened trading positions on the Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1 and the Premiership but I'm not really going to take much notice of what's happening with individual leagues right now.

Talking of the Premiership, my wife bought me 'The Premier Football Betting Handbook 2010/11' by Matt Finnigan and Pete Nordsted for my birthday and even though I've not had much time to get stuck into it, based on having read the book they wrote about World Cup betting and Mr. Nordsted's book 'Mastering Betfair' I would thoroughly recommend it. I kept an eye on some of the advice they recommend during yesterday's Premiership games and there were a couple that looked very promising that came up trumps. I personally think that it's far too early to get involved with individual games in either the Premiership or the Football League at the moment, but that's purely because of the way my system works. In any case, it's fun keeping an eye on how competitions develop before getting involved with them - there are plenty of opportunities in the summer leagues, although they've been few and far between over the last couple of days.

A couple of dates for the diary: the draws for the group stages of both the Champions League and the Europa League take place on consecutive days at the end of the month - UCL draw is on August 26th and the Europa League draw is the following day.

I've also modified my horse laying system a little and that seems to be working, but once again I'm not thinking of posting any recommendations until they start showing a profit. There won't be any football recommendations tomorrow but there may be a racing one; I'm off to do investigate that now.

Thursday, 27 May 2010

The Season In England Comes To A Close

We've got the last two play off finals coming up this weekend: Millwall v Swindon for a place in the Championship and Dagenham & Redbridge v Rotherham meet to replace whoever wins in League 1. Once again, the win markets are skewed a little because the prospect of extra time and/or penalties could decide the games, but although I expect Rotherham to escape League 2, I'm not sure which team will reach the Championship. Millwall are favoured, but I'm not sure why. It's reasonable to try to set odds for a game at a neutral site based on away form, in which case Swindon have a better record - and Millwall have not scored an away goal in the last three games.

I'm going to follow the same system that I used last Saturday - which sort of worked! Under 3.5 goals was blown away in the first half at Wembley, but Over 1.5 worked both at Wembley and in Madrid and Inter's 2-0 win over Bayern Munich meant that Under 3.5 worked in the Champions League final. Dagenham & Redbridge v Rotherham should be OK for both, but as the last game between Millwall and Swindon finished 3-2 to the side from East London.

Real Madrid sacked Massimo Pellegrini during the week, which leaves the job open for Jose Mourinho. It remains to be seen if Blackpool's Ian Holloway will be approached by Inter Milan for the Special One's old job in Italy.

Incidentally, laying Inter Milan for the 2010/11 Champions League should be done as soon as the opportunity is available: no club has won back to back Champions Leagues. I'd also be a little circumspect about Blackpool being relegated from the Premiership next season: there will be better prices for other teams and as both Hull and Bradford City have shown in the past, relegation is not inevitable. I also wouldn't back Holloway to be the first manager to be sacked next season.

A racing lay for tomorrow: Just Sam in the 5:40 at Newcastle.

Friday, 21 May 2010

Swan Song In Madrid?

Two massive games on Saturday: the Championship play off final between Blackpool and Cardiff City and in the evening the final of the UEFA Champions League between Inter Milan and Bayern Munich. Not surprisingly, considering both games are 'finals' played at neutral venues (Cardiff are a Welsh team after all) they could turn out to be very similar types of games.

Blackpool and Cardiff kick off first, so let's start there. I think Cardiff will win and get promoted to the Premiership but that's not something I'm going to trade. These games have been extremely tight over the past few seasons - the average margin of victory over the last 20 games is 1.35 goals, five of the last seven games have finished 1-0 and the losing side has failed to score in ten of the last thirteen. Having written all that, I have a feeling that both teams may score - but if they do, remember that there's a correlation between both sides scoring and the game going to extra time. The last four games where both teams scored went to extra time and two of those went to penalty shoot outs.

Being naturally risk averse (that will become much clearer next season), I'm going to trade the following markets:

* Lay under 0.5 goals. There is always at least one goal in 90 minutes in these games - even if it's only one. In that case, it's also logical to lay 0-0 - it's extremely unlikely that will happen.

* Back over 1.5 goals - but remember, that's the same as laying under 1.5 goals, but you'll probably get better odds that way round (even if the potential liability is higher)

* Back under 3.5 goals and under 4.5 goals. Once again, that's the same as laying over 3.5 goals...well, you get the picture.

The one market I'm leaving well alone is Over/Under 2.5 goals. The logic I've presented above indicates my belief that there will be at least one goal but there probably won't be more than three; that also rules in scores like 1-0 (five of the last seven games, remember?), 1-1 (here's where it's likely to go to extra time at least) and 2-1 (which is a really common score in English football but hasn't happened in a Championship play off final since the end of the 1995/6 season - and that was after extra time)

One last point before moving on to Inter v Bayern: this season, Cardiff scored 58% of their goals in the league before 50 minutes and Blackpool scored 64% of their goals after 50 minutes. In that case it might be reasonable to assume that the longer the game goes without a goal, the more likely Blackpool are to nick it; a Cardiff goal in the first 20 minutes is a distinct possibility.

The average margin of victory in European Cup/Champions League finals is 1.15 goals but there are no current scoring sequences like there are in the Championship playoff final.

In actual fact, there's something to be said for looking for trading opportunities in the same goal markets as the Blackpool v Cardiff game. In fact, there is a recent trend for both teams to score in the Champions League final - Barcelona's 2-0 win over Manchester United last season was the first time that only the winners had scored since Porto's win over Monaco in 2004. Porto's manager that day: Jose Mourinho.

Both Mourinho and his Bayern counterpart Louis Van Gaal have won the competition, but if you're looking for intangibles it's probably worth remembering that although Bayern Munich won in 2001, Inter have not won since their 1965 win over Benfica and haven't appeared in the final since they lost to Ajax in 1972: their local rivals AC Milan have played in seven of the last 20 finals and have won four of them. Having won five consecutive Serie A titles, a win for Inter tomorrow night would make the point that the balance of power in Italy has changed: unfortunately for them, it might also be Mourinho's swansong with the Nerazzuri and a chance for him to establish a myth in the stadium which is rumoured to be his new home...

Wednesday, 28 April 2010

A Saturday Night In May In Madrid: Bayern v Inter

Congratulations to Inter Milan, who qualified for the Champions League final despite losing 1-0 at the Nou Camp. While you might hear the usual nonsense about how no team has won consecutive Champions Leagues, is there any correlation between Champions League/European Cup winners and World Cup winners?

The only time that the same country provided both the European Cup winner and the World Cup winner was in 1974, when Bayern Munich and West Germany did the honours. There's a bit of an issue with South American teams winning seven of the thirteen World Cup finals tournaments since the start of the European Cup/Champions League, but Spain (courtesy of two Real Madrid wins and Barcelona's 2006 triumph) have had three Champions League wins in World Cup years when European teams have won it, followed by England (Aston Villa), Germany and Italy (AC Milan) with one each.

Which leads - in a very roundabout way - to the the following position: it is unlikely that the country that provides the winner of the Champions League will win the World Cup. Judging by the current odds, that's bad news for defending world champions Italy. Incidentally, there have been two German/Italian finals and Germany have won them both - Hamburg beat Juventus in 1983 and Borussia Dortmund beat Juventus in 1997

No football tips for tomorrow (Thursday is not a traditional football day as far as I'm concerned), although I hope that both Fulham and Liverpool win through to the Europa League final as it'll make odds compilation a lot easier. Moving on to the horses, Eterna finished 8th at Southwell and so the torch of losing is hereby passed to Haasem, running at Brighton in the 5:30pm.

Tuesday, 27 April 2010

There Were Goals...But Lyon Didn't Get Any!

I need to take to my own advice. I took the wrong direction and went with my ‘Bayern won’t keep a clean sheet’ concept rather than the ‘lay 0-0’ idea.

There was a clean sheet: Bayern kept it as they demolished Lyon 4-0 to reach the Champions League Final at the end of next month.

As for Barcelona v Inter Milan, I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen so I am going to sit back and just enjoy the game.

Imperial House (12/1) finished 3rd in his race - which is cutting it a bit fine to say the least! 200 year old British naturalist Charles Darwin won at 16/1, proving that there must be something in his theory of evolution. Wednesday’s tip not to win is the AJ McCabe trained Eterna in the 3:40 at Southwell.

Monday, 26 April 2010

Bayern v Lyon: There Will Be Goals...But How Many?

My Will (25/1) was pulled up, you can’t really get further away from a win than that can you?

The Betfair contest was interesting…my five selections all won (although I didn’t look up the scores until I got home on Sunday), so it was a good job I had a small accumulator on them. There seemed to be a lot of confusion about the terms and conditions of the contest – it was basically a bonus promo which is fair enough. If I qualify for it that’s great but if I don’t I’m not going to lose any sleep.

Another big European week ahead, although I’m probably not going to commit any money to any of the Champions League or Europa league semi finals I’m intrigued by some of the angles. First of all, Lyon v Bayern Munich.

With Bayern taking a slim lead to France, if Lyon are to progress they absolutely have to score; their problem is if Bayern do then Lyon’s dreams of travelling to Madrid for the final are doomed. So I think there will be goals but laying 0-0 might be the way forward rather than backing any particular amount, as might be laying one or both of them to keep a clean sheet. With that in mind, Bayern would be the obvious choice - they have lost three of their last four UCL games on the road, haven’t kept an away clean sheet in the competition since they beat Maccabi Haifa in September and haven't kept one in Bundesliga away games for nine games.

Oh and before I forget, Lay Of The Day for Tuesday is Imperial House in the 5:00pm race at Lingfield.

Tuesday, 20 April 2010

Twist Magic Refuses To Race, Barcelona Refuse To Defend...

Bit of a mixed bag today: Athakeel came third in his race, Twist Magic refused to race at Punchestown (after I'd traded out before the off, which was a bit of a blessing in disguise under the circumstances) and when Maicon scored after 48 minutes to make the Champions League semi final 2-1 in favour of Inter that was the end of that!

So it was up to Brentford to provide the win today - but even that wasn't particularly straightforward as there was about seven minutes of injury time.

I can't actually find anything that fits the bill for either backing or laying so I'm leaving Wednesday's racing alone. I'm recommending Bayern Munich to beat Lyon but I'm just going to watch the game and do some prep for this weekend rather than looking for any opportunities.