Swan Song In Madrid?

Two massive games on Saturday: the Championship play off final between Blackpool and Cardiff City and in the evening the final of the UEFA Champions League between Inter Milan and Bayern Munich. Not surprisingly, considering both games are 'finals' played at neutral venues (Cardiff are a Welsh team after all) they could turn out to be very similar types of games.

Blackpool and Cardiff kick off first, so let's start there. I think Cardiff will win and get promoted to the Premiership but that's not something I'm going to trade. These games have been extremely tight over the past few seasons - the average margin of victory over the last 20 games is 1.35 goals, five of the last seven games have finished 1-0 and the losing side has failed to score in ten of the last thirteen. Having written all that, I have a feeling that both teams may score - but if they do, remember that there's a correlation between both sides scoring and the game going to extra time. The last four games where both teams scored went to extra time and two of those went to penalty shoot outs.

Being naturally risk averse (that will become much clearer next season), I'm going to trade the following markets:

* Lay under 0.5 goals. There is always at least one goal in 90 minutes in these games - even if it's only one. In that case, it's also logical to lay 0-0 - it's extremely unlikely that will happen.

* Back over 1.5 goals - but remember, that's the same as laying under 1.5 goals, but you'll probably get better odds that way round (even if the potential liability is higher)

* Back under 3.5 goals and under 4.5 goals. Once again, that's the same as laying over 3.5 goals...well, you get the picture.

The one market I'm leaving well alone is Over/Under 2.5 goals. The logic I've presented above indicates my belief that there will be at least one goal but there probably won't be more than three; that also rules in scores like 1-0 (five of the last seven games, remember?), 1-1 (here's where it's likely to go to extra time at least) and 2-1 (which is a really common score in English football but hasn't happened in a Championship play off final since the end of the 1995/6 season - and that was after extra time)

One last point before moving on to Inter v Bayern: this season, Cardiff scored 58% of their goals in the league before 50 minutes and Blackpool scored 64% of their goals after 50 minutes. In that case it might be reasonable to assume that the longer the game goes without a goal, the more likely Blackpool are to nick it; a Cardiff goal in the first 20 minutes is a distinct possibility.

The average margin of victory in European Cup/Champions League finals is 1.15 goals but there are no current scoring sequences like there are in the Championship playoff final.

In actual fact, there's something to be said for looking for trading opportunities in the same goal markets as the Blackpool v Cardiff game. In fact, there is a recent trend for both teams to score in the Champions League final - Barcelona's 2-0 win over Manchester United last season was the first time that only the winners had scored since Porto's win over Monaco in 2004. Porto's manager that day: Jose Mourinho.

Both Mourinho and his Bayern counterpart Louis Van Gaal have won the competition, but if you're looking for intangibles it's probably worth remembering that although Bayern Munich won in 2001, Inter have not won since their 1965 win over Benfica and haven't appeared in the final since they lost to Ajax in 1972: their local rivals AC Milan have played in seven of the last 20 finals and have won four of them. Having won five consecutive Serie A titles, a win for Inter tomorrow night would make the point that the balance of power in Italy has changed: unfortunately for them, it might also be Mourinho's swansong with the Nerazzuri and a chance for him to establish a myth in the stadium which is rumoured to be his new home...