The Season In England Comes To A Close

We've got the last two play off finals coming up this weekend: Millwall v Swindon for a place in the Championship and Dagenham & Redbridge v Rotherham meet to replace whoever wins in League 1. Once again, the win markets are skewed a little because the prospect of extra time and/or penalties could decide the games, but although I expect Rotherham to escape League 2, I'm not sure which team will reach the Championship. Millwall are favoured, but I'm not sure why. It's reasonable to try to set odds for a game at a neutral site based on away form, in which case Swindon have a better record - and Millwall have not scored an away goal in the last three games.

I'm going to follow the same system that I used last Saturday - which sort of worked! Under 3.5 goals was blown away in the first half at Wembley, but Over 1.5 worked both at Wembley and in Madrid and Inter's 2-0 win over Bayern Munich meant that Under 3.5 worked in the Champions League final. Dagenham & Redbridge v Rotherham should be OK for both, but as the last game between Millwall and Swindon finished 3-2 to the side from East London.

Real Madrid sacked Massimo Pellegrini during the week, which leaves the job open for Jose Mourinho. It remains to be seen if Blackpool's Ian Holloway will be approached by Inter Milan for the Special One's old job in Italy.

Incidentally, laying Inter Milan for the 2010/11 Champions League should be done as soon as the opportunity is available: no club has won back to back Champions Leagues. I'd also be a little circumspect about Blackpool being relegated from the Premiership next season: there will be better prices for other teams and as both Hull and Bradford City have shown in the past, relegation is not inevitable. I also wouldn't back Holloway to be the first manager to be sacked next season.

A racing lay for tomorrow: Just Sam in the 5:40 at Newcastle.