Liverpool & Man U Back To Normal?

Not bad yesterday, the only let downs were the lack of second half goals at Norwich and the goal fest at Rotherham, but the latter game finished in a draw so it wasn't a complete wash.


Retrospectively I perhaps should have backed the draw outright in the Wigan v Bolton game but that's a lesson to be applied another day. Due to time constraints I've not been able to work through the numbers, so rather than recommendations I'm just going to go through some scenarios.


Stoke v Manchester United (1:30pm GMT)
United should probably be slight favourites but having drawn four consecutive away games in the Premiership this season then that outcome can't be completely ruled out even though these two haven't shared the points at Stoke since 1980. Additionally Stoke have only won two of the last ten league meetings between them in the Potteries and haven't scored against United at home since December 1984(!)
Wild guess: draw (possibly 1-1) or Manchester United, 0-0 can be pretty much ruled out (last time November 1968). Look for goals around half time.


Liverpool v Blackburn (3:00pm GMT)
Liverpool have been through it over the last couple of weeks but with the ownership issues out of the way and the return of Gerrard and Torres after the Europa League draw at Napoli, this looks like the type of game where a degree of normality could return to Anfield. Blackburn's record at Liverpool is dreadful - they last won there in September '93 - and Liverpool have won seven of the last ten meetings.
Wild guess: Liverpool might be worth backing, but dutching the Liverpool win and the draw wouldn't be the worst idea ever. The longer the game goes on without Blackburn scoring the more chance Liverpool have of winning; could be a low scoring game.

Something For The Weekend?

I managed to work through some numbers for a few promising looking games on Saturday and all being well I'll be able to post some thoughts on the games featuring Liverpool and Manchester United on Sunday. The following games are the pick of the bunch. All games are 3:00pm kick offs unless stated; Strategy With No Name applies unless mentioned in the preview.


Barclays Premiership
Wigan v Bolton
Looks like a low scoring game and as there's only been a decisive result in six of the last ten games between these two at Wigan and the last two games were goalless draws, then a draw is highly likely.
Recommendation: under 2.5 goals

nPower Championship
Coventry v Barnsley
Slightly trappy look to it as Barnsley haven't won at Coventry since August 1923, but the Sky Blues have won eight of the last ten league meetings between the two when they've been at home. A Coventry is win good value, but the goals market should be avoided.

Preston v Crystal Palace
Tight looking game between two sides at the wrong end of the table, which could go either way. I think this is a percentage call, so only using the strategy with no name for this game might be the way forward. Just over 70% of the games in the Championship this season have been either home wins or draws.

Norwich v Middlesbrough
Second half to have most goals - not difficult to see why either. Norwich have scored nine of the eleven goals at home after half time and one of the reasons Middlesbrough have the worst away record in the Championship is that they collapse defensively in the second half. Seven of the twelve goals they've let in away from home have come in after the break. Could be worth investigating a draw/Norwich double result but I've got to run some errands and I haven't got the time.


nPower League 2
Rotherham United v Wycombe Wanderers
Interesting game from League 2 - Rotherham are unbeaten at home and Wycombe haven't lost away yet, but the visitors have never beaten Rotherham in the league and have trouble scoring there - only two goals in six games in South Yorkshire. A tight, low scoring game looks likely but although Rotherham look the better bet to win the game, there's a far better than average chance of a draw as well, so I'm going to play it safe and recommend under 2.5 goals.

Tuesday Night Round Up

Tuesday night was a classic example of breaking even - here's how it went down:
Right:
Burnley 3, Barnsley 0
Scoreless at half time, but that didn't matter. If Burnley can start picking up points on their travels then they can make a challenge for the automatic promotion spots.
Norwich 1, Crystal Palace 2
A fantastic example of why head to head form needs to be taken into account. Palace won their first away game since last season and scored their first away goals this season.


Mixed Bag:
Hull 0, Sheffield United 1
A proper mixed bag an' all guv'nor. The strategy with no name didn't work, but under 2.5 was successful and overall I made a tiny profit. I'm off to buy a bar of chocolate in a minute and I might even have enough change for some Hula Hoops.


Leeds 1, Leicester 2
See above. I think there's a strong possibility that Leicester could find themselves above Leeds before Christmas.Tiny loss overall.


Coventry 1, Cardiff 2
Over 1.5 goals was the right call, only a late goal from Jay Bothroyd sealed the win and over 2.5 goals.


Wrong
Forest 1, Middlesbrough 0
Middlesbrough now have no manager and the worst away record in the Championship. Forest could have some sleeper value in the promotion stakes - someone from the middle of the pack will put together an impressive run sooner or later and Forest have the credentials.


Happy Days
Bristol City 1, Reading 0
Probably not the result anyone expected! A City win, with a clean sheet and just one goal? Very unusual, believe me!

Overall result: £7.25 profit for the night, down £7.07 for the month so far. Could be worse!

Championship Tuesday

All I can say is that although Blackburn stood a better chance of beating Sunderland with ten men, full credit to them for not getting beaten despite playing for the entire second half with ten men after Chris Samba got sent off. Sunderland are actually a very consistent team - not bad at the Stadium of Light, but awful away from home; the only bet that went awry was the Blackburn win.

In the NFL, it finished Jacksonville 3, Tennessee 30. That's all you need to know.

There's a full Tuesday night programme in the Championship (all kick offs 7:45pm GMT), so here are my picks - usual rules apply unless I mention it in the preview.

Burnley v Barnsley
Although Barnsley won the last time these two played at Turf Moor in the league (1-2 in December 2008), Burnley have won three of the last five games between these teams in Lancashire and are unbeaten at home this season while Barnsley have yet to win away from home. May be a good idea to leave the goals alone though as Burnley have one of the better home defensive records in the Championship - four clean sheets in the last five games - and Barnsley sometimes have difficulty scoring away from home.
Recommendation: Burnley win. Don't use the Strategy With No Name in this game.


Hull v Sheffield United
A Hull win doesn't represent value - although the Tigers are unbeaten at home and have yet to concede a goal at the KC Stadium, an inability to score goals and three scoreless draws in their five league games at home so far isn't exactly inspirational either. They've also not beaten Sheffield United at home since October 1983(!) and three of the last five games between these two at Hull have finished as 0-0 draws.
Recommendation: although 0-0 as a correct score looks tempting, under 2.5 goals looks even better - neither Hull at home or Sheffield United away have been involved in a game featuring over 2.5 goals this season, which is a surprise seeing as though the Championship has averaged 2.73 goals per game in 2010/2011.


Leeds v Leicester
Leeds look really good value - despite losing that ridiculous game to Preston in their last game at Elland Road, they've won three of their five home games in the Championship and shouldn't have much to fear from a Leicester side that have only picked up one point from 15 on the road so far. I can't imagine that Simon Grayson won't want to put one over Sven.
Recommendation: Leeds win and over 2.5 goals.


Possible Upsets
Norwich v Crystal Palace
Despite Norwich being value for the win, I think this could be a possible trap game, given that Crystal Palace have failed to score away from home in the league this season but have tightened up defensively in the past couple of games. The raw numbers aren't disimilar from Leeds v Leicester, but Palace's recent record at Carrow Road (only three defeats in the last ten visits and none in the last five) is something to be aware of before parting with your cash. I'm not parting with mine for that reason.


Nottingham Forest v Middlesbrough
Looks like a Forest win on paper, but as they've now gone over 20 home games without losing this game comes with an official trap warning, especially as Boro haven't won away from the Riverside this season and teams who have recently parted company with their manager sometimes upset the odds.


Leave Alone
Coventry v Cardiff
Although Coventry represent really good value for a win, they have only won three of the last ten league games between these two in the Midlands and the last four games have either been draws or away wins. Best bet may be that both teams score, although over 1.5 goals looks more likely than over 2.5.


I'm going to Bristol City v Reading tonight and although I'd expect over 2.5 goals I'm not going to recommend it as this is a classic case of not getting involved when you're emotionally attached to one of the teams. As long as City don't lose again I'll be happy.

Monday Night Football

It only took UK TV stations 22 years to work out that the Monday Night Football format was a good idea, but there you go. Starting at the beginning of November I shall be previewing both the American Football and Association Football versions, so this is a trial run.

Blackburn v Sunderland (Premiership, 8:00pm GMT)
Looks like a low scoring game with a high possibility of a draw, although a Blackburn win represents value especially if Darren Bent is ruled out. Might have to get the stopwatch out tonight and run the 'five minutes no goals trade', although it may be a good idea to trade out immediately after ten minutes and wait until after 70 minutes before doing it again as that's when these two tend to stop scoring.
Recommendation: Blackburn win, under 2.5 goals. Use the Strategy With No Name for both half time and full time - Blackburn haven't been behind at half time this season and Sunderland haven't won away yet. There's a case to be made for Blackburn winning both halves, but I'm leaving that alone.

Jacksonville Jaguars v Tennessee Titans (NFL 1:30am GMT)
First Monday night meeting between these two: Jacksonville have won six of their eight Monday night home games, Tennessee are 7-9 in Monday night road games but that includes games when they were the Houston/Nashville Oilers: since 2000 the franchise is 4-3 away from home on Monday nights.

The Titans are on a three game winning streak on the road and have won 13 of their last 20 road games; they've won three of the last five meetings in Florida (they lost the corresponding game in Week 4 last season). Jacksonville have won half of their last 20 home games but have lost three of their last five and for that reason I think Tennessee probably just about have enough to win this game - however, the total points market could be where the profit could be made here and 44.5/45 looks too high to me, somewhere between 36 and 42 looks more realistic - especially if the Titans are the favourites. Recommendation: Tennessee to win and under 44.5/45 points - but don't break the bank on the latter.

Results Are In

Not bad at all...I'd like to thank Keith Treacy of Preston who gave away the injury time penalty that was converted by Robbie Savage to win the goals bet in that game. So without further ado:

Right:

Barnsley 3, Nottingham Forest 1

Derby 3, Preston 0

Ipswich 1, Coventry 2 (the second half featured two of the three goals)

Wrong:

Reading 0, Swansea 1

Not sure what I'm going to be posting this week, purely because I don't know what sort of time I'm going to have to research the picks. There's a lot of football this week: under 2.5 goals in the Blackburn v Sunderland game on Monday night looks like a reasonably good proposition and there are few games in the nPower Championship on Tuesday that could be worth looking at.

Something For The Weekend: nPower Championship

Only have a few recommendations for English football this week due to a rather busy weekend ahead...I won't go into details but I'm going to have a raging hangover on Saturday morning and going over to my wife's parents and meeting up with her family could be a bit of an adventure.

Unless otherwise stated, use the Strategy With No Name on Betfair: out of personal interest all games are in the nPower Championship and kick off at 3:00pm GMT (10:00am EST) - for a general overview for this week's Championship games please visit Buzzin Championship Football.


Barnsley v Forest
Forest have only won twice in their last ten trips to Oakwell, last time was October 2000. Leave goals alone, although under 2.5 is possible it might be better to lay 0-0 instead. Bonus fact: Forest have not had a half time lead this season.
Recommendation: Forest don't seem to be able to win games away from home but they seem to have stopped their losing run - so I'm going to recommend a double chance of Barnsley/draw because although the price is short, it actually represents value.


Derby v Preston
Preston have only won twice in their last league trips to Derby (last win September '02, seven games ago), four of the last five games between these two at Pride Park have been draws. Bonus fact: neither of these teams has scored a goal in the last ten minutes this season - but that doesn't mean there won't be goals as both of these teams usually have very productive first halves when it comes to scoring. Kris Commons (Derby) and John Parkin (Preston) could be worth a look in the anytime goalscorer markets, but Parkin's hat trick in the 6-4 win at Leeds is an aberration rather than the norm.
Recommendation: back Derby at anything over evens and back over 2.5 goals


Ipswich v Coventry
No value in an Ipswich win, which is hardly surprising given the fact that Coventry have only won once at Portman Road in the last 20 league games (April 1994), Ipswich have won eight of the last ten of those games. About 40% chance of a drawn game at half time, which is the exact average for the Championship. Bonus fact: Ipswich have only scored once in the first half of home games in the league this season so backing 0-0 at half time might pay out.
Tentative recommendation: back the second half to be the half with the most goals; don't use the Strategy With No Name in this game.


Reading v Swansea
Plenty of value for a Reading win - I'm assuming that because Swansea won at Watford a couple of weeks ago the bookies think that they've improved, although the Swans had lost their previous eight league games away from home. In any case, Swansea's record at Reading is almost as bad as Coventry's at Ipswich: the Swans last win in Berkshire was in April 1985 and the Royals have won six of the last ten league meetings. Reading haven't been behind at home after 45 minutes this season; Jimmy Kebe of Reading might be worth a look at in the anytime goalscorer odds although he does have a tendency to score against poorer sides in the Championship.
Recommendation: back a Reading win at anything over evens.

Trendspotting In Europe

With ten games gone in quite a few competitions across Europe, it's worth taking a look at how things are panning out in some of them in order to see if there any any trends developing that might be worth exploiting. To keep my workload down, in the long term I might limit myself to countries that where I've had holidays.

Belgium:

Massive improvement from unbeaten leaders Genk has given them a five point lead over Anderlecht. At the bottom AS Eupen have lost nine of their first ten games and should probably be opposed each time they play: their next game is at home to St. Truiden on 16th October.

Genk have won the title before, but the winner of the 2010/11 edition of the competition will still probably be either Anderlecht or Club Brugge, although the playoff format adopted in Belgium sometimes throws up unexpected winners. In that case, Gent can't be totally ruled out either.

Holiday report: went to Bruges a few years ago, not really a great deal to do apart from sample the fantastic range of beer and chocolate and go on boat trips, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The battlefield tour in and around Ypres puts a lot of things into perspective.

Croatia:

Dinamo Zagreb, Hajduk Split and newly promoted RNK Split have all started well, at the bottom Hrvatski Dragovoljac and Istra 1961 look vulnerable already: Hrvatski were promoted last season and might not be up to the challenge. This competition has been dominated by Dinamo Zagreb (ten wins since 1992 and five consecutive wins) then if you can still get a decent price for them it's worth taking. Hajduk Split (the only club from outside Zagreb to win the title since the war finished) are also contenders. Bit of a health warning with Croatian football though: there have been some dodgy dealings in the past although a series of high profile stings may have put paid to that.

Holiday report: stayed on the Adriatic coast north of Split for a fortnight, not many Brits there but I was told how well I spoke English(!) which is spoken pretty widely, mainly because people from all over Europe go there. The locals seem to worship Italians and if you're a fan of meat and potatoes you can't go wrong with the food; beer and wine is good quality and cheap.

There are a number of European leagues that are currently featuring over 3.5 goals per game. For the sake of brevity, I'll just list the major ones but I'll be coming back to Portugal and Greece in the following weeks:

Swiss Super League (ten games gone, some teams have played eleven)

No real surprise here as this competition and the Austrian Bundesliga normally feature tons of goals. Of the ten teams in the competition, only Young Boys are currently averaging less than 2.5 per game. Leaders Luzern are averaging exactly four goals per game at the moment: their next game is 22nd October at Neuchatel Xamax which looks as if it should be over 3.5 but more of that game nearer the time.

Bundesliga 1 (seven games gone)

Surprisingly, Bayern Munich are having problems hitting the net.

Dutch Eredivisie (eight games gone)

Only two teams under 2.5 goals per game

If you don't want to see goals, try the following competitions:

Polish Extraklasa (eight games in) - Arka Gdynia are the main culprits

Portuguese Super League (seven games) - very goal shy competition

Greece 1 (five games) - particularly Aris and Larissa

Serbia Super Liga (seven games) - an incredible 1.56 GPG at the moment!

Monday Night Football

Hmm. Ordinarily - and especially after last week's poor performance - I'd be happy with two out of three, but I'm a bit annoyed with the Saints. Still, I was up until gone 1am GMT watching the Raiders beat the Chargers for the first time since September 2003 so I'm not going to moan too much.

NY Jets (3-1) v Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
Subplots everywhere here. Vikings QB Brett Favre was a Jet in 2008, newly acquired Minnesota WR Randy Moss was accused of slacking off by Jets' defender Darelle Revis earlier in the season etc etc. So what are the numbers suggesting?

Well, the Vikings are currently on a four game regular season losing streak and have never beaten the Jets on the road but this looks as if it might be really close because the Jets aren't exactly a powerhouse at home, having lost nine of their last 20 games in New Jersey. The key to this game looks as if it's how the Jets perform defensively: if they can keep the Vikings from scoring more than fourteen points then they should win. The good news for them is that they've kept opponents to an average of eight points in their last five regular season home games; the bad news for Minnesota is that the Vikings have only averaged 20 points in their last five regular season road games - and remember, the Vikings have lost five of those.

The Jets are the favourites but as the odds seem to be based on the head to head meetings between the sides, the average price of 1.44 looks too short to me. A Vikings win would be very good value, but how likely is it? Minnesota's head to head record against the Jets is their worst against any team in the NFL and they've lost seven of their last ten Monday night games, so I'm going to recommend laying Minnesota rather than backing the Jets.

It's a bit early to be looking forward to next weekend's games, but there are some good ones: by far the tastiest is New England v Baltimore, which could easily be a playoff game at the end of the season.

NFL Week 5

Despite both goals coming in the first thirty minutes - which is normally a very bad sign indeed - Hereford drew 1-1 with Port Vale yesterday in front of 2651 fans. You can pretty much guarantee that there'll be at least 2700 fans tailgating a few hours before kick off in the NFL games this weekend.

There are no games between teams with winning records this week, but five games between teams that have 3-1 and 2-2 records and one where 3-0 plays 2-2. Using the Football Outsiders chart I referred to last week, it's easy to see how important the following games are. If any of the 2-2 teams mentioned above loses, their odds for reaching the playoffs drifts from around 33% (3.03 or 2/1) to less than 20% (5.26 or about 4/1). If they win, the odds should shorten to about evens.

It's a similar situation with the 3-1 sides. If they drop to 3-2, their odds drift from 1.5 to 2.0; if they win they should shorten to 1.25 (1/4). The situation is more or less the same for the Indianapolis/Kansas City game, but the Chiefs had a bye week last week and have played one game less.

Early kick offs:

Baltimore (3-1) v Denver (2-2)

Houston (3-1) v NY Giants (2-2)

Indianapolis (2-2) v Kansas City (3-0)

Washington (2-2) v Green Bay (3-1)

4:15pm kick off

Arizona (2-2) v New Orleans (3-1)

Monday Night Game:

NY Jets (3-1) v Minnesota (1-2)

Baltimore Ravens v Denver Broncos

The Ravens have earned this record the hard way; they've won two of their three road games to get to a 3-1 position. Baltimore has won all three regular season home meetings against the Broncos and have kept them to under ten points in the last two. This is an important stat - Baltimore has won 10 of 14 at home when they've kept opponents under ten points. Denver has lost 11 of their last 20 road trips; in four of those loses they've been kept at or under ten points and if the Baltimore defence can play as impressively as they did at Pittsburgh last weekend against a one dimensional Denver offence then there's only one outcome here.

Recommendation: Baltimore win - possibly by a big margin. I'm also keeping an eye on the Ravens for the Superbowl.

Houston Texans v NY Giants

Watching brief only - not enough head to head form between them. Off the top of my head: Houston.

Washington Redskins v Green Bay Packers

First meeting between these two in DC since 2004; the Redskins have won three of the last five regular season home games against the Packers, but as their last win over Green Bay was in December 1979 we might as well throw the head to head numbers out of the window. The Skins have won 50% of their last 20 home games but only four of the last ten at Fedex Field whereas the Packers have 14 wins in their last 20 regular season road games including six of the last nine. Not only that, Green Bay doesn't have losing streaks on the road: they haven't lost back to back road games since 2005. This is the kind of game the Packers have to win to have a realistic chance of reaching the Superbowl, but I'm leaving it alone - although I think Green Bay have a good chance of winning it, Washington weren't supposed to beat Philadelphia last week :-)

Indianapolis Colts v Kansas City Chiefs

I'm trying to make a case for a Kansas win but I can't - Indy has won the last three in this series (the last time Kansas beat a team named the Colts was in Baltimore in 1980) and although the Chiefs have won their last two road games, Indianapolis has won 16 of their last 20 home games.

Recommendation: Colts

Arizona v New Orleans 

Interesting game as the last two NFC Champions meet in a regular season game in Arizona for the first time since 2004 and is the first time they've met since the Cardinals moved inside and on to turf, which means the Saints will feel at home. The Cardinals lead the head to head series between these two in Arizona, but have lost three of the last five games and New Orleans has only lost once in their last ten regular season road games. Had it not been a trio of missed field goals Arizona should probably have lost to the Raiders in their last outing at home and starting an undrafted rookie quarterback against a Superbowl calibre defence won't help the Cardinals cause.

Recommendation: New Orleans win by about 8-10 points, although there is some blow out potential here.

I'll take a look at the Monday night game tomorrow, but although the Jets are 4-0 against the Vikings in regular season games in New Jersey this one could be really close. It's also worth taping or staying up for!

Something For The Weekend?

Nebraska won easily last night, so a couple of decent College Football results after last week's poor NFL run.

Another international break this weekend and to be honest there's not much looking at in terms of league football. Having said that, there are a couple of games worth looking at in the lower divisions in England, so without further ado...

nPower League 1:
I've mentioned Brighton a couple of times this season and the Seagulls are the form team in League 1 at the moment, showing a big improvement from last season. Peterborough, Bournemouth and Rochdale - none of whom were in this division last year - are also performing well. At the other end of the table Walsall and Brentford have gone backwards and I'm going to recommend Walsall for relegation.
Brighton kick off the weekend - they're playing Bournemouth on Saturday lunchtime, the game is live on Sky Sports 2 (12.15pm). Brighton haven't lost at home this season and haven't been behind at half time either but there's no value in applying the strategy with no name here. Not only that, laying Bournemouth could be expensive if the game is a draw. So I'm just going to recommend backing Brighton for promotion.


nPower League 2:
Port Vale are the form team, but Chesterfield, Shrewsbury, Rotherham and Accrington are all looking good too. At the bottom, Bradford and Hereford are struggling and considering they reached the playoffs last season, Morecambe are also doing badly, possibly due to New Stadium Syndrome. I'm backing Port Vale for promotion and Hereford to be relegated: by sheer coincidence they play each other at Edgar Street on Saturday afternoon.
Hereford's home form this season is terrible - they've not been ahead at half time and haven't won yet and I think half time is where the opportunity lies as Port Vale haven't been behind after 45 minutes. Unfortunately there's no value in it; so I'm recommending under 2.5 goals instead as Hereford are having trouble scoring.

And that's it. I'm not going to be able to monitor College Football on Saturday but I'll be posting some NFL tips at some point during the weekend, so for now - good hunting!

Thursday Night Football

UCF 42, UAB 7. That'll do.

Right, a big game in the Big12 tonight featuring one of the teams I'm following this season as Nebraska travel to Kansas State. Bit of a strange matchup for me: this will be the fifth straight home game KSU has played this season. As a 'sakkah' fan, I can honestly say that this type of scheduling wouldn't happen in the round ball game.

The stats that matter: although KSU is 15-5 at home over the last 20 home games, they're only 1-5 against opponents ranked in the top ten (Nebraska is currently seventh); Nebraska is currently on a five game winning streak on the road and has won of ten of their last fourteen away games against unranked opposition.

Nebraska has won the last two meetings in Manhattan, KSU but lost the previous four games there. Could be a lot of points but I'm leaving that market alone. I'm recommending laying KSU.

Wednesday Night College Football

Well, Thursday morning for me anyway.

Monday night's prediction was totally hopelessly wrong, although looking back at the preview I pointed out that if New England won the game there was more of a chance of the total points being higher - and that's exactly what happened. Still, the only rewards for being correct after the event are a lot of experience points.

Conference USA
UAB at UCF (kick off 1am GMT Thursday morning)
Central Florida are 2-2 so far this season and have won 14 of their last 20 at the Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando by an average of 14 points; UAB (University of Alabama at Birmingham) are 1-3 so far and have lost 16 of their last 20 road trips although one of those wins was an upset win at UCF in the last game of the 2008 season. No value in backing a straight UCF win, so I'm recommending laying UAB.

NFL Parity Means Coupon Busting Opportunities

The NFL takes great pride in parity and the 'any given Sunday' ethos was in evidence yesterday - underdogs won six of the thirteen games that took place.

Unfortunately I was on the wrong end of some of those results! Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore despite leading with 32 seconds left, despite a huge day from Terrell Owens Cincinnati lost by three points to Cleveland and Washington's Donovan McNabb capped his return to Philadelphia with his new team with a win, even though the Eagles could have won the game with the last play of the game.

At least I got one right - San Diego 41, Arizona 10. I think that counts as a blow out. And the Giants beat the Bears in their own backyard at last.

I'm not too disheartened. The games I watched were close ones and went right down to the wire. Still, nearly right doesn't mean a big payday and there's always...well, tonight actually!

New England at Miami

Whoever wins this will be level with the NY Jets on 3-1 and once again this game looks really close - three points either way. I'm not going to recommend a winner (it's going to be close remember) but I'm interested by the total points market. Although this one might be a high scoring game, going back over the last 20 games in Miami between these two have produced an average of 42.5 points per game, but only nine of those games have been over that total - even if that includes three of the last five.

The weird thing about the high points totals is that they normally don't apply if Miami win - and they're the favourites. In the games the Dolphins have won, there has been an average of less than 40 points. It's only when the Patriots win that the numbers go up and even then it's only just over 50.

I'm not going to make any recommendations - the bookies are all over the place with this one. You can currently get over/under from 45.5 to 50 points, New England were favourites on Sunday and aren't on Monday etc. I've placed two bets on different unders and I'll post the results tomorrow, but I think this one could be a lot lower than most people think.

Not much Association Football this week, but there will be some picks this weekend plus a couple of long term recommendations based on what's already happened around some of the minor European leagues.

NFL Week 4 Preview

In their Pro Football Prospectus 2008, the analysts at Football Outsiders published some interesting research based on how likely teams were to make the playoffs based on how many games each team had won at a specific stage of the season.


Based on that article, these are the most important games in Week 4:

Pittsburgh (3-0) v Baltimore (2-1)
NY Giants (1-2) v Chicago (3-0)
San Diego (1-2) v Arizona (2-1)
Miami (2-1) v New England (2-1)


If both Pittsburgh and Chicago lost this weekend, it wouldn't be the end of the world for either of them. At 3-0 they currently have a 79.5% chance of making the post season, at 3-1 the figure is 66%. So far so good;  that's probably another way of saying that they're in control of their own destinies (haven't actually heard that in commentary yet, but it won't be too long!)


However, if any of the teams that currently have 2-1 records lose, their chances of post season play are reduced from 53.8% to 33.1% - as you can see above, this statistic automatically makes New England's trip to Miami extremely important, but as that's the Monday night game I'll post about that game nearer the time. 


So in chronological order...


Pittsburgh Steelers should beat Baltimore Ravens but probably not by much. The Steelers average margin of victory (MOV) in their last 15 regular season wins at Heinz field is 9.5 points, but as their average margin of defeat (MOD) at home is 5.4 points then there's not a lot of wiggle room, especially as Baltimore's average road MOV is 13; their MOD is 10 points. Steelers between 3 and 13 points could be the way to go; Pittsburgh has won 10 of the 14 games between these two in Pennsylvania.


San Diego Chargers v Arizona Cardinals: Much easier to predict, even though this game is between two teams that won their respective divisions last season. The Cardinals have won half of their last twenty road trips but to be honest five of those wins were against teams that have been amongst the worst in the NFL for the last few seasons; they only avoided defeat at home against Oakland last week due to several missed field goals including one with four seconds left. The Chargers are on a six game winning streak at Qualcomm Stadium and the only reason they're 1-2 is due to poor away form rather than how they perform in Southern California. This game has the potential to be a blow out, but San Diego ought to win by at least a touchdown. Additional stat: the Chargers have won five of the six games between these two on the west coast.


NY Giants v Chicago Bears: I'm really not sure what's going to happen here - Chicago haven't won back to back games away from home since 2007, the season after they reached the Superbowl but the Giants definitely seem to be going backwards. Could go either way: Giants are the favourites but in a stat that I really wasn't expecting, the Bears have an 8-3-1 record versus the Giants in New York since 1940 - they've won the last five meetings and the Giants last won in their own backyard in October 1969!


At the other end of the spectrum, the five teams that have started with 0-3 records might as well pack up their tents. They have about a 3% chance of making the playoffs; amongst that group are one of the teams coming to play at Wembley at the end of the month, the San Francisco 49ers.

According to my numbers there are three value bets worth looking at (bold equals possible winners):
Seattle at St. Louis
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Washington at Philadelphia

Saturday's Results Are In...

Another mixed bag, but I broke even today. Here's the round up:


Wins
* Doncaster v Nottingham Forest
Under 2.5 goals and the Strategy With No Name worked on Betfair, this was the game I won the most on.
* Macclesfield v Northampton
Under 2.5 won...but read on
* Dundee


Losses
* Doncaster, although dutching the win/draw worked on Betfair.
* Northampton - I'll happily admit that backing Northampton was a punt, so I'm not going to lose any sleep.
* Dundee v Morton under 2.5 - the goal that won the game lost the over/under bet, 'that's life' as Frank Sinatra sang all those years ago. This is the game I actually lost the most on.


Leave Them Alone
Sunderland 0, Manchester United 0
West Ham 1, Fulham 1
Tranmere 1, Brighton 1
Queen of the South 2, Dunfermline 0


Dodged A BIG Bullet:
A big surprise in Sweden - GAIS handed Helsingborg their first home defeat of the season in the Allsvenskan, so it's probably just as well that I couldn't find any value in any of the pro-Helsingborg markets before the game. I still think the Trelleborg/Malmö game will be a close one and if there's time this evening I'll post some more Swedish tips for tomorrow. Otherwise there'll be an NFL post up tomorrow morning.


Hope you were lucky with your selections - did any one have the correct scores at Accrington Stanley and Chesterfield?

Who's Going To Win The Allsvenskan?

I haven't posted much about the Nordic leagues recently, but with five games left to go in the Allsvenskan the race for the title between Malmö and Helsingborg couldn't be any tighter.


Neither club have had much success in the league recently: Helsingborg last won it in 1999 and Malmö's last triumph was in 2004, but as the Allsvenskan is one of the more competitive leagues (you can normally expect the title winners to come from the top half of the previous season's table) it's not much of a surprise that these two sides are doing so well. The major surprise this season is how badly AIK Stockholm are doing - last year's champions are in the relegation play off spot and are only two points away from the bottom of the table.


There are a few betting/trading opportunities left before the season finishes at the beginning of November, but I'd recommend leaving individual games alone after Round 27 as this is the point in the season where things might start to get unpredictable. Here are some pointers:


* Malmö are the current favourites, but only just. Although they've not won the Allsvenskan since 2004, they've won it 18 times, which is a record.


* Although a Helsingborg win can't be ruled out, they last won the title over a decade ago - and before that the last time they won the competition was in 1941.


* They don't have to play each other again this season: both meetings this season were home wins.


Both teams have six games left to play and this is where it gets interesting. Three of Malmö's games are away but Helsingborg have three home games left. One mistake by either and it may hand their rivals the title.


Helsingborg look as if they've got the easier task this weekend. They've not lost at home all season and face GAIS on Saturday afternoon; the visitors aren't safe from relegation yet and won't be looking forward to the trip as they've lost four consecutive away games. A straight Helsingborg win isn't any value but their unbeaten home record should continue, so laying GAIS wouldn't be the worst decision ever made - although it's worth pointing out that GAIS won the corresponding fixture last season. Low scoring game in prospect, so under 2.5 goals looks possible.


Malmö have a very tricky looking trip to Trelleborg on Sunday afternoon - the hosts have a seven game unbeaten streak going but have only beaten Malmö once in the last five meetings at home. That being said, this looks as if it could be an incredibly tight game as half of the last ten games between these two have ended as draws and I'd definitely recommend less than 2.5 goals.

Some other stats worth looking at for the Allsvenskan games this weekend:

* Elfsborg have drawn their last three games

* Kalmar have gone 11 games without a draw

* Brommapojkarna haven't won for nine games

More Swedish stats here, but I've got to get ready for a game so I'm off now. Good hunting!

Eight ways football blogs can be used as a weapon

Catchy title, eh? Got it here.

I've got some more tips coming soon, but I'm afraid I'm going to have a bit of a mini rant this afternoon.

I've just conducted a Google search looking for decent football blogs and although the quality is mixed, the one thing that's really getting my goat is the amount of blogs that were either created specifically for the World Cup or haven't been updated since the World Cup. It's obvious that some of them were 'a good idea at the time' or were created for other purposes (there are multiple blogs that have identical content with slightly different titles - I wonder what they might be for?) but they're basically not worth clicking on. Note to self: I ever have to stop writing this blog, I'll put a last post up.

Now for some headscratching.

Some of the MLS stuff I've seen is pretty good too, but sometimes it's as if Major League Soccer is the only professional league in the entire world. Don't get me wrong, I have a global interest in football but I'm based in the UK, I support an English team, I know British football pretty well and it's only natural that I make my investment decisions based on that - it's the right market for me. However - and I didn't do this as much as I would have liked during the summer due to personal circumstances - I also follow competitions around the world (some Swedish tips are on the way)and that's something MLS fans need to start doing too.

OK, I feel a bit better for that. Move along now, there's nothing more to see here.