NFL Week 5

Despite both goals coming in the first thirty minutes - which is normally a very bad sign indeed - Hereford drew 1-1 with Port Vale yesterday in front of 2651 fans. You can pretty much guarantee that there'll be at least 2700 fans tailgating a few hours before kick off in the NFL games this weekend.

There are no games between teams with winning records this week, but five games between teams that have 3-1 and 2-2 records and one where 3-0 plays 2-2. Using the Football Outsiders chart I referred to last week, it's easy to see how important the following games are. If any of the 2-2 teams mentioned above loses, their odds for reaching the playoffs drifts from around 33% (3.03 or 2/1) to less than 20% (5.26 or about 4/1). If they win, the odds should shorten to about evens.

It's a similar situation with the 3-1 sides. If they drop to 3-2, their odds drift from 1.5 to 2.0; if they win they should shorten to 1.25 (1/4). The situation is more or less the same for the Indianapolis/Kansas City game, but the Chiefs had a bye week last week and have played one game less.

Early kick offs:

Baltimore (3-1) v Denver (2-2)

Houston (3-1) v NY Giants (2-2)

Indianapolis (2-2) v Kansas City (3-0)

Washington (2-2) v Green Bay (3-1)

4:15pm kick off

Arizona (2-2) v New Orleans (3-1)

Monday Night Game:

NY Jets (3-1) v Minnesota (1-2)

Baltimore Ravens v Denver Broncos

The Ravens have earned this record the hard way; they've won two of their three road games to get to a 3-1 position. Baltimore has won all three regular season home meetings against the Broncos and have kept them to under ten points in the last two. This is an important stat - Baltimore has won 10 of 14 at home when they've kept opponents under ten points. Denver has lost 11 of their last 20 road trips; in four of those loses they've been kept at or under ten points and if the Baltimore defence can play as impressively as they did at Pittsburgh last weekend against a one dimensional Denver offence then there's only one outcome here.

Recommendation: Baltimore win - possibly by a big margin. I'm also keeping an eye on the Ravens for the Superbowl.

Houston Texans v NY Giants

Watching brief only - not enough head to head form between them. Off the top of my head: Houston.

Washington Redskins v Green Bay Packers

First meeting between these two in DC since 2004; the Redskins have won three of the last five regular season home games against the Packers, but as their last win over Green Bay was in December 1979 we might as well throw the head to head numbers out of the window. The Skins have won 50% of their last 20 home games but only four of the last ten at Fedex Field whereas the Packers have 14 wins in their last 20 regular season road games including six of the last nine. Not only that, Green Bay doesn't have losing streaks on the road: they haven't lost back to back road games since 2005. This is the kind of game the Packers have to win to have a realistic chance of reaching the Superbowl, but I'm leaving it alone - although I think Green Bay have a good chance of winning it, Washington weren't supposed to beat Philadelphia last week :-)

Indianapolis Colts v Kansas City Chiefs

I'm trying to make a case for a Kansas win but I can't - Indy has won the last three in this series (the last time Kansas beat a team named the Colts was in Baltimore in 1980) and although the Chiefs have won their last two road games, Indianapolis has won 16 of their last 20 home games.

Recommendation: Colts

Arizona v New Orleans 

Interesting game as the last two NFC Champions meet in a regular season game in Arizona for the first time since 2004 and is the first time they've met since the Cardinals moved inside and on to turf, which means the Saints will feel at home. The Cardinals lead the head to head series between these two in Arizona, but have lost three of the last five games and New Orleans has only lost once in their last ten regular season road games. Had it not been a trio of missed field goals Arizona should probably have lost to the Raiders in their last outing at home and starting an undrafted rookie quarterback against a Superbowl calibre defence won't help the Cardinals cause.

Recommendation: New Orleans win by about 8-10 points, although there is some blow out potential here.

I'll take a look at the Monday night game tomorrow, but although the Jets are 4-0 against the Vikings in regular season games in New Jersey this one could be really close. It's also worth taping or staying up for!