Three games caught my attention, it'll come as no surprise that two of tonight's away teams are rubbish. All kick offs are 7:45pm GMT.
nPower League 1
Dagenham v Brighton
Under 3.5 goals. Brighton have kept three consecutive away clean sheets in League 1 and have a ten point lead over Huddersfield: their last four aways have finished 1-0 and although Dagenham can usually find the back of the net at home (they've not been shut out at home for seven games) they're up against a team that is literally a different class.
Result: Dagenham 0, Brighton 1
EXETER (nap) v Swindon
The only probable here is that Swindon won't win. The visitors have had the best of it in Devon over the last ten meetings (an amazing five wins and four draws) so this is actually the best chance that Exeter have of beating Swindon since April 1980. Will they do it? Who knows, I'm only interested in Swindon not winning. Dutch Exeter/draw and possibly have a nibble on a correct score of 1-1.
LUNCHTIME UPDATE: the markets are moving away from an Exeter win to a draw - the main reason appears to be because Exeter will have two of their first team defenders suspended.
Result: Exeter 1, Swindon 0. To paraphrase Private Wilson from 'Dad's Army', Swindon are 'doomed!'
nPower League 2
Port Vale (nb) v Lincoln
A quick return to Vale Park after last Saturday's 0-0 draw with Bury, which I am no longer angry about. Tonight the hosts entertain Lincoln City, who were thumped 6-0 at home last week but - like Swindon at Exeter - have a weirdly impressive record at Port Vale. However, last season Port Vale won this game 4-0 and although I don't think it's going to be that one sided, I can't see Port Vale losing. Oppose Lincoln however you like.
Result: Port Vale 2, Lincoln 1
Back tomorrow for Accrington Stanley v Hereford.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Showing posts with label League 1. Show all posts
Showing posts with label League 1. Show all posts
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
Sunday, 27 March 2011
Free Tips For Sunday 27th March
A bit disappointed with yesterday, I can cope with the outliers (Leyton Orient and Stevenage) but getting Port Vale and Bury wrong was a case of not thinking it through. Still, today's another day and here are my recommendations.
nPower League 2
3:00pm
Oxford United v Burton Albion
Oxford ought to get into the not losing at home: arguably it's their lack of home draws that's going to keep them from reaching the playoffs in their first season back in the Football League. They've not drawn any games with the current bottom six this season and although Burton are a few games behind everyone else at the foot of the table, they're also in that position on form as well - two wins in their last ten away games.
Recommendation: Oxford draw no bet will produce a better return so I'm going for that.
Result: Oxford 3, Burton 0. Burton also had two men sent off.
nPower League 1
4:00pm
HUDDERSFIELD v Notts County
I was originally looking at this from a total goals point of view, but it quickly became apparent that the usual dutching strategy would work. If the hosts win they'll have a gap between themselves and Peterborough and be in a commanding position for the second automatic promotion spot. Notts could still find themselves in relegation trouble but they've only lost four of their last ten aways and have a reasonably tough defence: Huddersfield haven't exactly been banging the goals in either.
Recommendation: dutch home win/draw
Result: Huddersfield 3, Notts County 0
There are a lot of catch up games in the lower leagues in England this week, I'll do my best to keep on top of them. There'll definitely be a post towards the end of next week, the Allsvenskan starts and it's Week 2 in Norway.
nPower League 2
3:00pm
Oxford United v Burton Albion
Oxford ought to get into the not losing at home: arguably it's their lack of home draws that's going to keep them from reaching the playoffs in their first season back in the Football League. They've not drawn any games with the current bottom six this season and although Burton are a few games behind everyone else at the foot of the table, they're also in that position on form as well - two wins in their last ten away games.
Recommendation: Oxford draw no bet will produce a better return so I'm going for that.
Result: Oxford 3, Burton 0. Burton also had two men sent off.
nPower League 1
4:00pm
HUDDERSFIELD v Notts County
I was originally looking at this from a total goals point of view, but it quickly became apparent that the usual dutching strategy would work. If the hosts win they'll have a gap between themselves and Peterborough and be in a commanding position for the second automatic promotion spot. Notts could still find themselves in relegation trouble but they've only lost four of their last ten aways and have a reasonably tough defence: Huddersfield haven't exactly been banging the goals in either.
Recommendation: dutch home win/draw
Result: Huddersfield 3, Notts County 0
There are a lot of catch up games in the lower leagues in England this week, I'll do my best to keep on top of them. There'll definitely be a post towards the end of next week, the Allsvenskan starts and it's Week 2 in Norway.
Saturday, 26 March 2011
Free Tips For Saturday 26th March
Saturday's tips for the lower divisions in England - the kick off times are all 1:00pm so everyone can go to the pub afterwards to watch England beat Wales.
nPower League 1
1:00pm
BOURNEMOUTH (nap) v Charlton
It looks wrong, doesn't it? If I remember rightly a few years ago these two were at opposite ends of the league. Anyway, Charlton have lost two of their four games at the current top six this season and they're currently on a four game away losing streak. Although Bournemouth lost their last home game, each time they've lost at Dean Court in the league this season they've won the next game.
Result: Bournemouth 2, Charlton 2
Leyton Orient (nb) v Yeovil
Now this is a bit more like it. Yeovil aren't totally out of the woods at the bottom of League 1 while any slip ups from Bournemouth (see above) would mean that Leyton Orient could easily overtake them and end up in the play offs. The hosts haven't lost at home in the league for 14 games and I can't see them losing this one either.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Yeovil 5 - when you're down to ten men after fourteen minutes this is exactly the sort of thing that happens.
Watching Brief Only
Brighton v Swindon
This is a classic end of season trap game - Brighton are undefeated at home and are ten points clear of the competition with ten games left. Swindon have got to start picking up points over the next few games otherwise they'll have gone from the play offs last season to relegation this season. Brighton's win price is far too short and not worth bothering with.
Result: Brighton 2, Swindon 1
nPower League 2
1:00pm
Aldershot v Accrington Stanley under 3.5 goals
Macclesfield v Stevenage under 3.5 goals
Port Vale v Bury over 1.5 goals
Results: OK, I'm going to admit that I should have approached Port Vale v Bury from the opposite under of spectrum as it finished 0-0. Aldershot v Accrington finished 1-1 and Stevenage battered Macclesfield 4-0.
nPower League 1
1:00pm
BOURNEMOUTH (nap) v Charlton
It looks wrong, doesn't it? If I remember rightly a few years ago these two were at opposite ends of the league. Anyway, Charlton have lost two of their four games at the current top six this season and they're currently on a four game away losing streak. Although Bournemouth lost their last home game, each time they've lost at Dean Court in the league this season they've won the next game.
Result: Bournemouth 2, Charlton 2
Leyton Orient (nb) v Yeovil
Now this is a bit more like it. Yeovil aren't totally out of the woods at the bottom of League 1 while any slip ups from Bournemouth (see above) would mean that Leyton Orient could easily overtake them and end up in the play offs. The hosts haven't lost at home in the league for 14 games and I can't see them losing this one either.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Yeovil 5 - when you're down to ten men after fourteen minutes this is exactly the sort of thing that happens.
Watching Brief Only
Brighton v Swindon
This is a classic end of season trap game - Brighton are undefeated at home and are ten points clear of the competition with ten games left. Swindon have got to start picking up points over the next few games otherwise they'll have gone from the play offs last season to relegation this season. Brighton's win price is far too short and not worth bothering with.
Result: Brighton 2, Swindon 1
nPower League 2
1:00pm
Aldershot v Accrington Stanley under 3.5 goals
Macclesfield v Stevenage under 3.5 goals
Port Vale v Bury over 1.5 goals
Results: OK, I'm going to admit that I should have approached Port Vale v Bury from the opposite under of spectrum as it finished 0-0. Aldershot v Accrington finished 1-1 and Stevenage battered Macclesfield 4-0.
Friday, 25 March 2011
Friday's Free Tip
Friday
nPower League 1
7:45pm
MK DONS v Walsall
Walsall have lost all four games that they've played at the current top six, but this is also the fourth time this season that MK Dons have gone into a home game having won the previous three - and they always seem to blow the fourth leg. If the hosts were a racehorse I'd give them extra points for having won within a five day period on the same ground as they beat Peterborough on Monday night. With that streak issue, it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that I'm recommending the dutch home win/draw.
Result: MK Dons 1, Walsall 1
nPower League 1
7:45pm
MK DONS v Walsall
Walsall have lost all four games that they've played at the current top six, but this is also the fourth time this season that MK Dons have gone into a home game having won the previous three - and they always seem to blow the fourth leg. If the hosts were a racehorse I'd give them extra points for having won within a five day period on the same ground as they beat Peterborough on Monday night. With that streak issue, it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that I'm recommending the dutch home win/draw.
Result: MK Dons 1, Walsall 1
Tuesday, 22 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 22nd March
It's the international break this weekend, which means that I'm looking at the lower leagues in the UK this week and probably finalising my divisional baseball tips.
Four games tonight came to my attention, all of them look as if they away side won't win but I've made notes where appropriate. All kick off at 7:45 GMT
nPower League 1
BRIGHTON (NAP) v Notts County
Careful. Brighton are undefeated at home and Notts haven't lost to any of the teams in the top six away from home (win and two draws)
Result: Brighton 1, Notts County 0
Leyton Orient (NB) v Dagenham
Leyton Orient unbeaten at home against teams in the current bottom six and have only conceded one goal in those matches.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Dagenham 1
nPower League 2
Aldershot v Barnet
Barnet haven't won consecutive away games in the league since the beginning of 2008/9.
Result: Aldershot 1, Barnet 0
Port Vale v Hereford
Slight difference here as Hereford have only drawn once in their last 20 aways in League 2 so I'm going to recommend Port Vale draw no bet and laying Hereford.
Result: Port Vale 1, Hereford 1
I'll admit it - I got lucky tonight. Late goals at Leyton Orient and Port Vale saved the day!
Four games tonight came to my attention, all of them look as if they away side won't win but I've made notes where appropriate. All kick off at 7:45 GMT
nPower League 1
BRIGHTON (NAP) v Notts County
Careful. Brighton are undefeated at home and Notts haven't lost to any of the teams in the top six away from home (win and two draws)
Result: Brighton 1, Notts County 0
Leyton Orient (NB) v Dagenham
Leyton Orient unbeaten at home against teams in the current bottom six and have only conceded one goal in those matches.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Dagenham 1
nPower League 2
Aldershot v Barnet
Barnet haven't won consecutive away games in the league since the beginning of 2008/9.
Result: Aldershot 1, Barnet 0
Port Vale v Hereford
Slight difference here as Hereford have only drawn once in their last 20 aways in League 2 so I'm going to recommend Port Vale draw no bet and laying Hereford.
Result: Port Vale 1, Hereford 1
I'll admit it - I got lucky tonight. Late goals at Leyton Orient and Port Vale saved the day!
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 15th March
Not a bad weekend: there were only two expensive mistakes (Vasas beat Ujpest 1-0 with ten men and suddenly - at the end of the season - Greek sides remembered how to score goals) but I think the word 'satisfactory' is appropriate here, especially as Nick Watney did the business in the golf.
Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.
nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.
nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.
nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.
The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.
It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)
1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew
Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.
nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.
nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.
nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.
The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.
It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)
1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew
Tuesday, 8 March 2011
Tuesday 8th March
Blackpool v Chelsea went exactly how the numbers predicted it would (1-3), although I must admit that I thought it took Chelsea longer to score the second goal than I thought it would.
Anyway, tonight is a busy one and I'm off to a game this evening...so let's not mess about.
Tuesday
Hungary
5pm
Debrecen v Paksi SE
Back over 1.5/2.5 and don't get involved with 0-0 or outrights as there are some trap elements here. Both teams to score also looks worth taking.
Championship
All 7:45pm
Under 3.5 goals in all of the following:
Barnsley v Scunthorpe (potential home win)
Doncaster v Coventry (potential home win)
Hull v Burnley - although under 2.5 goals in this particular game would be more profitable.
Millwall v QPR
Sheff U v Nottingham Forest
Additionally, I've put this lot together using my fast and loose method, so I wouldn't go too mad with staking these: laying the away team and/or backing the home team should work in the majority of the games below. Bold represents possible home win, bold caps represents possible home banker.
League 1
Tranmere v Bristol Rovers
Huddersfield v Rochdale
Plymouth v Swindon (although looking at Plymouth's current price a home win/draw dutch could be the way forward)
League 2
CHESTERFIELD v Northampton
Bury v Morecambe
Accrington Stanley v Stockport
Stevenage v Hereford
As for Arsenal in the Champions League...the one thing that probably won't happen is that the game will finish 0-0. Over 2.5 goals looks tempting, but the challenge I've got is avoiding the score until I get home later!
Anyway, tonight is a busy one and I'm off to a game this evening...so let's not mess about.
Tuesday
Hungary
5pm
Debrecen v Paksi SE
Back over 1.5/2.5 and don't get involved with 0-0 or outrights as there are some trap elements here. Both teams to score also looks worth taking.
Championship
All 7:45pm
Under 3.5 goals in all of the following:
Barnsley v Scunthorpe (potential home win)
Doncaster v Coventry (potential home win)
Hull v Burnley - although under 2.5 goals in this particular game would be more profitable.
Millwall v QPR
Sheff U v Nottingham Forest
Additionally, I've put this lot together using my fast and loose method, so I wouldn't go too mad with staking these: laying the away team and/or backing the home team should work in the majority of the games below. Bold represents possible home win, bold caps represents possible home banker.
League 1
Tranmere v Bristol Rovers
Huddersfield v Rochdale
Plymouth v Swindon (although looking at Plymouth's current price a home win/draw dutch could be the way forward)
League 2
CHESTERFIELD v Northampton
Bury v Morecambe
Accrington Stanley v Stockport
Stevenage v Hereford
As for Arsenal in the Champions League...the one thing that probably won't happen is that the game will finish 0-0. Over 2.5 goals looks tempting, but the challenge I've got is avoiding the score until I get home later!
Monday, 14 February 2011
Free Tips For Monday and Tuesday
Superb weekend, despite PAOK starting it off by losing to Panionios. Everything else came in, the only other wobble was expecting Standard Liege to beat Genk - although to be fair, I'd suggested laying 0-0, which worked.
I'm ignoring the Champions League this week because there are a few catch up games in England that might be worth a look, so this is the only scheduled post before Friday's weekend preview.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Beira Mar v Vitoria Setubal
Beira Mar's two home defeats this season have been against Benfica and Porto, otherwise they're fairly solid at home. Vitoria's away form has improved recently, but they're probably still worth opposing.
Tuesday
I tend not to analyse British games in much detail as I used to, but as usual the basic idea is that the home wins are in bold, home bankers are in bold caps etc. All kick offs at 7:45pm.
Championship
CARDIFF v Burnley
Watford v Preston - opposing Preston could be the best play as Watford have already lost at home to Scunthorpe this season and it's the time of the season when teams at the bottom of the table have to start scrapping their away out of the relegation spots.
League 1
Exeter v Swindon
Exeter haven't lost at home against teams in the current bottom four, so this recommendation is probably more about opposing Swindon rather than backing Exeter.
OLDHAM v Carlisle
Carlisle have lost all their games played against the current top six without scoring a goal. Nice price for Oldham.
League 2
Stevenage v Oxford
The visitors are unlikely to win, but you cannot completely rule out a draw either.
ROTHERHAM v Accrington Stanley
Very similar type of game to Oldham v Carlisle - Accrington Stanley have lost against all the sides they've played in the current top six.
I'm ignoring the Champions League this week because there are a few catch up games in England that might be worth a look, so this is the only scheduled post before Friday's weekend preview.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Beira Mar v Vitoria Setubal
Beira Mar's two home defeats this season have been against Benfica and Porto, otherwise they're fairly solid at home. Vitoria's away form has improved recently, but they're probably still worth opposing.
Tuesday
I tend not to analyse British games in much detail as I used to, but as usual the basic idea is that the home wins are in bold, home bankers are in bold caps etc. All kick offs at 7:45pm.
Championship
CARDIFF v Burnley
Watford v Preston - opposing Preston could be the best play as Watford have already lost at home to Scunthorpe this season and it's the time of the season when teams at the bottom of the table have to start scrapping their away out of the relegation spots.
League 1
Exeter v Swindon
Exeter haven't lost at home against teams in the current bottom four, so this recommendation is probably more about opposing Swindon rather than backing Exeter.
OLDHAM v Carlisle
Carlisle have lost all their games played against the current top six without scoring a goal. Nice price for Oldham.
League 2
Stevenage v Oxford
The visitors are unlikely to win, but you cannot completely rule out a draw either.
ROTHERHAM v Accrington Stanley
Very similar type of game to Oldham v Carlisle - Accrington Stanley have lost against all the sides they've played in the current top six.
Friday, 8 October 2010
Something For The Weekend?
Nebraska won easily last night, so a couple of decent College Football results after last week's poor NFL run.
Another international break this weekend and to be honest there's not much looking at in terms of league football. Having said that, there are a couple of games worth looking at in the lower divisions in England, so without further ado...
nPower League 1:
I've mentioned Brighton a couple of times this season and the Seagulls are the form team in League 1 at the moment, showing a big improvement from last season. Peterborough, Bournemouth and Rochdale - none of whom were in this division last year - are also performing well. At the other end of the table Walsall and Brentford have gone backwards and I'm going to recommend Walsall for relegation.
Brighton kick off the weekend - they're playing Bournemouth on Saturday lunchtime, the game is live on Sky Sports 2 (12.15pm). Brighton haven't lost at home this season and haven't been behind at half time either but there's no value in applying the strategy with no name here. Not only that, laying Bournemouth could be expensive if the game is a draw. So I'm just going to recommend backing Brighton for promotion.
nPower League 2:
Port Vale are the form team, but Chesterfield, Shrewsbury, Rotherham and Accrington are all looking good too. At the bottom, Bradford and Hereford are struggling and considering they reached the playoffs last season, Morecambe are also doing badly, possibly due to New Stadium Syndrome. I'm backing Port Vale for promotion and Hereford to be relegated: by sheer coincidence they play each other at Edgar Street on Saturday afternoon.
Hereford's home form this season is terrible - they've not been ahead at half time and haven't won yet and I think half time is where the opportunity lies as Port Vale haven't been behind after 45 minutes. Unfortunately there's no value in it; so I'm recommending under 2.5 goals instead as Hereford are having trouble scoring.
And that's it. I'm not going to be able to monitor College Football on Saturday but I'll be posting some NFL tips at some point during the weekend, so for now - good hunting!
Another international break this weekend and to be honest there's not much looking at in terms of league football. Having said that, there are a couple of games worth looking at in the lower divisions in England, so without further ado...
nPower League 1:
I've mentioned Brighton a couple of times this season and the Seagulls are the form team in League 1 at the moment, showing a big improvement from last season. Peterborough, Bournemouth and Rochdale - none of whom were in this division last year - are also performing well. At the other end of the table Walsall and Brentford have gone backwards and I'm going to recommend Walsall for relegation.
Brighton kick off the weekend - they're playing Bournemouth on Saturday lunchtime, the game is live on Sky Sports 2 (12.15pm). Brighton haven't lost at home this season and haven't been behind at half time either but there's no value in applying the strategy with no name here. Not only that, laying Bournemouth could be expensive if the game is a draw. So I'm just going to recommend backing Brighton for promotion.
nPower League 2:
Port Vale are the form team, but Chesterfield, Shrewsbury, Rotherham and Accrington are all looking good too. At the bottom, Bradford and Hereford are struggling and considering they reached the playoffs last season, Morecambe are also doing badly, possibly due to New Stadium Syndrome. I'm backing Port Vale for promotion and Hereford to be relegated: by sheer coincidence they play each other at Edgar Street on Saturday afternoon.
Hereford's home form this season is terrible - they've not been ahead at half time and haven't won yet and I think half time is where the opportunity lies as Port Vale haven't been behind after 45 minutes. Unfortunately there's no value in it; so I'm recommending under 2.5 goals instead as Hereford are having trouble scoring.
And that's it. I'm not going to be able to monitor College Football on Saturday but I'll be posting some NFL tips at some point during the weekend, so for now - good hunting!
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
The Results Are In...
Not a bad haul for an evening's work. Only one disaster but the losses were covered so I'm not complaining too much.
Nottingham Forest 1, Sheffield United 1
Under was correct, the only thing that fell down was backing a Forest win.
Brighton 1, Brentford 0
Under was correct, as was Brighton's clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers 0, Tranmere 1
A bad night for both of Bristol's clubs (City lost 3-1 to Portsmouth in the Championship), Tranmere's streak snapped but backing the under was the correct call. Reset the clock.
Don't Touch It With A Barge Pole:
Kettering 3, Altrincham 3
French striker Jean-Paul Marna scored a hat-trick for Kettering, but Altrincham equalised with ten minutes left. Looks as if it was a good game.
Result Of The Night:
Leeds 4, Preston 6. Presumably this is going to be the best of three sets. New balls please.
I've got no scheduled posts between now and Friday, but there are some big games in the NFL this weekend and I'm pleased to say that I've been given permission to use some data from a very well respected source to aid my tips. I've also got two days to work out where I'm going to spend a £10 free bet I've got with one of the major bookies.
Nottingham Forest 1, Sheffield United 1
Under was correct, the only thing that fell down was backing a Forest win.
Brighton 1, Brentford 0
Under was correct, as was Brighton's clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers 0, Tranmere 1
A bad night for both of Bristol's clubs (City lost 3-1 to Portsmouth in the Championship), Tranmere's streak snapped but backing the under was the correct call. Reset the clock.
Don't Touch It With A Barge Pole:
Kettering 3, Altrincham 3
French striker Jean-Paul Marna scored a hat-trick for Kettering, but Altrincham equalised with ten minutes left. Looks as if it was a good game.
Result Of The Night:
Leeds 4, Preston 6. Presumably this is going to be the best of three sets. New balls please.
I've got no scheduled posts between now and Friday, but there are some big games in the NFL this weekend and I'm pleased to say that I've been given permission to use some data from a very well respected source to aid my tips. I've also got two days to work out where I'm going to spend a £10 free bet I've got with one of the major bookies.
Tuesday Night Football League Tips
A full programme outside the Premiership, which can be a bit annoying for those of us who want to support our local clubs and watch some of the best sides in Europe (allegedly) in the Champions League. Once upon a time in another century Nottingham Forest won the European Cup and so it seems appropriate to start with them.
nPower Championship
Nottingham Forest v Sheffield United
Forest haven't exactly got off to a brilliant start, but they're undefeated at home and beating Swansea at the weekend might be the catalyst they need for another win. They've also only been beaten once by Sheffield United once in the last ten league games at the City Ground, but a draw cannot be ruled out and this looks as if could be a low scoring game. I'm recommending under 2.5 goals as well as a straight back bet for Forest and the usual dutch on the exchanges.
Additional information: home win/draw percentage for the Championship is 74 exactly, so a double chance bet on any game in this division should be 1.35, but a Forest/draw bet is 1.22, so no value at all. This is where the dutching strategy comes in.
nPower League 1
Brighton v Brentford
Yep, Brighton again, although they are not value for the win so no point in looking at a straight back bet. New(ish) manager Gus Poyet has had a big impact on the Sussex club, the main difference appears to be that the Seagulls are scoring regularly - in a nine game home streak last season they failed to score in six, including three consecutive games. Brentford are currently having similar difficulties away from home: eight games without a road win and the Bees have failed to score in four of them, including four of the last six. Low scoring game is in prospect so take under 2.5 goals; might also be worth looking at Brighton to keep a clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers v Tranmere Rovers
The hosts don't have brilliant home record but could be worth a straight win; the visitors are dreadful away from home - especially when they visit North Bristol, where they haven't won since March 1971 (eight meetings since). Tranmere have also failed to score in seven of their twelve visits to the Gas: there's a chance that may be repeated so looking at a Bristol Rovers clean sheet and under 2.5 goals could work nicely.
If you're wondering why Bristol Rovers are called the Gas, their old ground (Eastville) was right next door to a big gasometer. Neither of those structures are there anymore; there are Tesco and Ikea stores on the site now.
Additional info: home wins/draws account for 75% of the current results in League 1.
Don't touch with a barge pole:
Blue Square Conference
Kettering v Altrincham
The prospect of a dreadful game between two of the worst teams in English professional football. Kettering's home record over the last 20 games: two wins, eight draws, twelve defeats. Altrincham's away record in the same time frame: three wins, six draws, eleven defeats (six consecutive). Kettering have won the last two. I'll be interested in the result but I'm not throwing any cash at this one - anything could happen.
nPower Championship
Nottingham Forest v Sheffield United
Forest haven't exactly got off to a brilliant start, but they're undefeated at home and beating Swansea at the weekend might be the catalyst they need for another win. They've also only been beaten once by Sheffield United once in the last ten league games at the City Ground, but a draw cannot be ruled out and this looks as if could be a low scoring game. I'm recommending under 2.5 goals as well as a straight back bet for Forest and the usual dutch on the exchanges.
Additional information: home win/draw percentage for the Championship is 74 exactly, so a double chance bet on any game in this division should be 1.35, but a Forest/draw bet is 1.22, so no value at all. This is where the dutching strategy comes in.
nPower League 1
Brighton v Brentford
Yep, Brighton again, although they are not value for the win so no point in looking at a straight back bet. New(ish) manager Gus Poyet has had a big impact on the Sussex club, the main difference appears to be that the Seagulls are scoring regularly - in a nine game home streak last season they failed to score in six, including three consecutive games. Brentford are currently having similar difficulties away from home: eight games without a road win and the Bees have failed to score in four of them, including four of the last six. Low scoring game is in prospect so take under 2.5 goals; might also be worth looking at Brighton to keep a clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers v Tranmere Rovers
The hosts don't have brilliant home record but could be worth a straight win; the visitors are dreadful away from home - especially when they visit North Bristol, where they haven't won since March 1971 (eight meetings since). Tranmere have also failed to score in seven of their twelve visits to the Gas: there's a chance that may be repeated so looking at a Bristol Rovers clean sheet and under 2.5 goals could work nicely.
If you're wondering why Bristol Rovers are called the Gas, their old ground (Eastville) was right next door to a big gasometer. Neither of those structures are there anymore; there are Tesco and Ikea stores on the site now.
Additional info: home wins/draws account for 75% of the current results in League 1.
Don't touch with a barge pole:
Blue Square Conference
Kettering v Altrincham
The prospect of a dreadful game between two of the worst teams in English professional football. Kettering's home record over the last 20 games: two wins, eight draws, twelve defeats. Altrincham's away record in the same time frame: three wins, six draws, eleven defeats (six consecutive). Kettering have won the last two. I'll be interested in the result but I'm not throwing any cash at this one - anything could happen.
Friday, 10 September 2010
SFTW 11/12 September 2010
You can tell it's mid September...it's getting darker earlier and decent opportunities are falling like leaves from the trees and I've spent a couple of hours this week crunching some numbers with my ancient copy of Excel 2003 - I don't particularly like the newest version but as long as you can colour some boxes in with a bit of conditional formatting I'm happy.
Off we go then...first stop North Rhein-Westphalia in Western Germany!
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga, 2:30pm GMT)
This one came up while I was doing some research for a blog I was writing for Soccerlens.com and it looks like a good opportunity to use the Strategy With No Name (dutch the home team/draw) plus a straight win bet for Borussia MGB. Mönchengladbach have a fairly decent home record in the Bundesliga (two defeats in their last ten home games and a 6-3 away win at Bayer Leverkusen before the international break) but although there's a relatively high chance of a draw in this game, once the draw reduction formula is applied the hosts look like a good prospect.
Recommendation: back Borussia Mönchengladbach at anything better than evens.
Wigan v Sunderland (Barclays Premier League, 3:00pm GMT)
Under 2.5 goals looks good here - despite Wigan's atrocious performances in their first two home games, they will be hoping to repeat their performance against Spurs a couple of weeks ago. They've kept four clean sheets in their last seven home league games against Sunderland; the visitors have been shut out in nine of their last twelve away games in the Premiership.
Recommendation: back Under 2.5 goals
QPR v Middlesbrough (nPower Championship, 3:00pm GMT)
Middlesbrough had never won at Loftus Road until last season, when they destroyed Rangers 5-1. I don't think that's going to happen again, but unfortunately it's not possible to lay that score on Betfair (and 'any other unquoted' covers a multitude of sins) so it's a case of using the Strategy With No Name and having a straight bet on a QPR win.
Recommendation: back QPR at anything better than evens.
Lincoln City v Barnet (nPower League 2, 3:00pm GMT)
The Imps don't have the best home record I've ever seen, but Barnet's away form is atrocious - 17 defeats in the last 20 games by an average of 2.2 goals, including a 7-0 thrashing by Crewe in their last game. Not only that, Lincoln have dominated this fixture in recent seasons (eight wins in the last nine games at Sincil Bank) so this looks like a good one to me.
Recommendation: back Lincoln at anything better than evens.
Sounds Like A Good Idea, But More Research Needed:
Ruud van Nistelrooy to score the first goal in the Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Nuremburg - his anytime scorer odds aren't that bad either. Min. stakes at the best price you can find - the bookies seem unsure about the odds for first goal, I've backed him for £1 at 5/1 on bet365 (LOL, big time bet there!)
Didn't Make The Cut But Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City v Blackburn (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Similar to the above - Blackburn can be tough to break down defensively and recently City have either been scoring a hatful or none at all at the City of Manchester Stadium.
West Ham v Chelsea (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Anyone expecting a goal fest might be disappointed - there has been a history of +2.5 in this game, but both of the last two encounters between these two at Upton Park have been under. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham make a game of it but still end up losing; opposing managers will be keen to stress exactly how important it is to defend effectively against Chelsea.
Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons (nPower League 1, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Limited amount of head to head data which is skewed somewhat by the fact that MK have never drawn a game at Brighton. I'm seriously thinking of disregarding Brighton completely in future weeks if their numbers don't start looking vaguely normal.
Birmingham City v Liverpool (Barclays Premiership, Sunday 4:00pm GMT)
The recommendation I had from elsewhere was that Under 2.5 goals was the way forward in this game, but Over 1.5 looks a better prospect...until you look at the prices. It might be worth getting the stopwatch out on Sunday afternoon and using the ten minutes with no goals trading strategy but I may not be in front of the TV at that point.
A couple of weird stats from my research this week:
* The last time Bolton drew 0-0 at Arsenal and the last time Hamilton beat Rangers at home? Before World War II.
* Portsmouth haven't beaten Ipswich in a league game at Fratton Park since October 1966. That's a 12 game streak that might not end tomorrow.
Unfortunately due to a prior appointment (apple picking!) I'm not going to be about tomorrow but if I get time on Sunday I'll post some NFL picks. I've also been working on some Champions League stuff but I might wait until the latter stages before parting with any cash; it's worth remembering that as it's a tournament there are some interesting strategies to deploy plus there are tons of markets available. Interesting to see that CFR Cluj are the rank outsiders: Steaua Bucharest won the competition back in the 1980s and they're from Romania too.
Anyway, good luck!
Off we go then...first stop North Rhein-Westphalia in Western Germany!
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga, 2:30pm GMT)
This one came up while I was doing some research for a blog I was writing for Soccerlens.com and it looks like a good opportunity to use the Strategy With No Name (dutch the home team/draw) plus a straight win bet for Borussia MGB. Mönchengladbach have a fairly decent home record in the Bundesliga (two defeats in their last ten home games and a 6-3 away win at Bayer Leverkusen before the international break) but although there's a relatively high chance of a draw in this game, once the draw reduction formula is applied the hosts look like a good prospect.
Recommendation: back Borussia Mönchengladbach at anything better than evens.
Wigan v Sunderland (Barclays Premier League, 3:00pm GMT)
Under 2.5 goals looks good here - despite Wigan's atrocious performances in their first two home games, they will be hoping to repeat their performance against Spurs a couple of weeks ago. They've kept four clean sheets in their last seven home league games against Sunderland; the visitors have been shut out in nine of their last twelve away games in the Premiership.
Recommendation: back Under 2.5 goals
QPR v Middlesbrough (nPower Championship, 3:00pm GMT)
Middlesbrough had never won at Loftus Road until last season, when they destroyed Rangers 5-1. I don't think that's going to happen again, but unfortunately it's not possible to lay that score on Betfair (and 'any other unquoted' covers a multitude of sins) so it's a case of using the Strategy With No Name and having a straight bet on a QPR win.
Recommendation: back QPR at anything better than evens.
Lincoln City v Barnet (nPower League 2, 3:00pm GMT)
The Imps don't have the best home record I've ever seen, but Barnet's away form is atrocious - 17 defeats in the last 20 games by an average of 2.2 goals, including a 7-0 thrashing by Crewe in their last game. Not only that, Lincoln have dominated this fixture in recent seasons (eight wins in the last nine games at Sincil Bank) so this looks like a good one to me.
Recommendation: back Lincoln at anything better than evens.
Sounds Like A Good Idea, But More Research Needed:
Ruud van Nistelrooy to score the first goal in the Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Nuremburg - his anytime scorer odds aren't that bad either. Min. stakes at the best price you can find - the bookies seem unsure about the odds for first goal, I've backed him for £1 at 5/1 on bet365 (LOL, big time bet there!)
Didn't Make The Cut But Worth Keeping An Eye On:
Manchester City v Blackburn (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Similar to the above - Blackburn can be tough to break down defensively and recently City have either been scoring a hatful or none at all at the City of Manchester Stadium.
West Ham v Chelsea (Barclays Premiership, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Anyone expecting a goal fest might be disappointed - there has been a history of +2.5 in this game, but both of the last two encounters between these two at Upton Park have been under. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham make a game of it but still end up losing; opposing managers will be keen to stress exactly how important it is to defend effectively against Chelsea.
Brighton v Milton Keynes Dons (nPower League 1, Saturday 3:00pm GMT)
Limited amount of head to head data which is skewed somewhat by the fact that MK have never drawn a game at Brighton. I'm seriously thinking of disregarding Brighton completely in future weeks if their numbers don't start looking vaguely normal.
Birmingham City v Liverpool (Barclays Premiership, Sunday 4:00pm GMT)
The recommendation I had from elsewhere was that Under 2.5 goals was the way forward in this game, but Over 1.5 looks a better prospect...until you look at the prices. It might be worth getting the stopwatch out on Sunday afternoon and using the ten minutes with no goals trading strategy but I may not be in front of the TV at that point.
A couple of weird stats from my research this week:
* The last time Bolton drew 0-0 at Arsenal and the last time Hamilton beat Rangers at home? Before World War II.
* Portsmouth haven't beaten Ipswich in a league game at Fratton Park since October 1966. That's a 12 game streak that might not end tomorrow.
Unfortunately due to a prior appointment (apple picking!) I'm not going to be about tomorrow but if I get time on Sunday I'll post some NFL picks. I've also been working on some Champions League stuff but I might wait until the latter stages before parting with any cash; it's worth remembering that as it's a tournament there are some interesting strategies to deploy plus there are tons of markets available. Interesting to see that CFR Cluj are the rank outsiders: Steaua Bucharest won the competition back in the 1980s and they're from Romania too.
Anyway, good luck!
Monday, 30 August 2010
Something For The Weekend II
I had to attend to some bits and pieces on Saturday - which is why this post is a bit late - but overall I was quite pleased with how things turned out.
I strongly suspect I was not the only person who got Spurs v Wigan completely wrong, but if Tottenham's defeat is anything to go by it might be worth looking at how they do in the Premiership games immediately after they've played in the Champions League. I'll add them to the calendar later on.
Frank Lampard should not take penalties for England or Chelsea and if he ever has kids he shouldn't be allowed to take them in any kind of Kids v Dads game either, unless the penalty spot is moved back another twelve yards and there's either no crossbar or it's 50 feet high. I thought Chelsea v Stoke wouldn't be 7-0 again but even if Lampard had scored it might still have turned out 2-0.
However...Ipswich, Sheffield United and Leyton Orient all won and Brighton finally managed to end the Walsall curse. I eventually went for Over 2.5 goals in the Manchester United v West Ham game and also did the same thing in the Bundesliga game between Wolfsburg and Mainz, which finished 3-4! It's definitely worth keeping an eye on Over 2.5 in all of Wolfsburg's home games in the Bundesliga and I'll put the numbers up the next time the Wolves are home after the international break as well as adding their home games to the calendar.
One lay to report now and possibly one for later: I don't think Paragon's Folly will win the 2.25 at Ripon. I'll update the post later if the second lay shows promise.
I strongly suspect I was not the only person who got Spurs v Wigan completely wrong, but if Tottenham's defeat is anything to go by it might be worth looking at how they do in the Premiership games immediately after they've played in the Champions League. I'll add them to the calendar later on.
Frank Lampard should not take penalties for England or Chelsea and if he ever has kids he shouldn't be allowed to take them in any kind of Kids v Dads game either, unless the penalty spot is moved back another twelve yards and there's either no crossbar or it's 50 feet high. I thought Chelsea v Stoke wouldn't be 7-0 again but even if Lampard had scored it might still have turned out 2-0.
However...Ipswich, Sheffield United and Leyton Orient all won and Brighton finally managed to end the Walsall curse. I eventually went for Over 2.5 goals in the Manchester United v West Ham game and also did the same thing in the Bundesliga game between Wolfsburg and Mainz, which finished 3-4! It's definitely worth keeping an eye on Over 2.5 in all of Wolfsburg's home games in the Bundesliga and I'll put the numbers up the next time the Wolves are home after the international break as well as adding their home games to the calendar.
One lay to report now and possibly one for later: I don't think Paragon's Folly will win the 2.25 at Ripon. I'll update the post later if the second lay shows promise.
Friday, 27 August 2010
Something For The Bank Holiday Weekend?
There are a few interesting opportunities this weekend, so rather than launch into a rant about how the weather is going to be dreadful I'll cut to the chase.
First of all two apparent no-brainers, although as I found out to my cost last season when they only beat Bolton 1-0, Chelsea don't always score a hatful against the poorer Premiership sides and I was quite surprised when the Blues hammered Stoke 7-0 towards the end of 2009/2010. Even though it looks as if Chelsea have started this season they way they finished the last one, I don't think that score is likely to happen again and there's compelling evidence that this game will have more than 2.5 goals. Here are the stats:
* 16 of Chelsea's last 20 home games in the Premiership have featured over 2.5 goals including eight of the last ten; Chelsea have scored in all of those games and there hasn't been a 0-0 in that sequence.
* 11 of Chelsea's last 20 home games against Stoke have featured over 2.5 goals, Chelsea have scored in eighteen of them and there's only been one 0-0 draw in that sequence.
Looks pretty solid to me, but despite the fact that they'll never win many style points, Stoke are no mugs and will have learned from last season's defeat.
It could be argued that Wigan's appalling record stems from last season's 9-1 hammering at Spurs and the Latics couldn't have come up against Tottenham at a worse time, especially as Peter Crouch now has the Champions League theme as his ring tone! In their twelve Premiership away games since that battering, Wigan have let in 33 goals (2.75 per game) so recommending over 2.5 goals in their game at Spurs isn't one of the toughest decisions I've ever made.
One thing that may be worth taking into account both in this game and in the Champions League is that since beating Wigan last season, Tottenham have only scored more than two goals in Premiership matches at White Hart Lane on two occasions as it's their home defensive record that's the foundation of their recent success - six clean sheets in the last ten home games in the Prem is pretty good. A 3-0 or 4-0 Spurs win might be the way to go here.
A couple of streaks in the Championship that are worth look: Bristol City haven't won at Ipswich since September 1978 and Preston haven't won at Sheffield United since November 1978. I've dutched Ipswich/draw and Sheffield United/draw, primarily because although City and Preston haven't won these games for a while, they are capable of drawing them.
League 1 provides a couple of headscratchers this weekend. I'd leave Brighton v Walsall alone because this is another example of the away side having a really strong record against the home team; Albion haven't beaten Walsall at home since March 1988 and this game has been played six times in the league on the South Coast since! No idea what's going to happen at the Withdean tomorrow, although I'll keep an eye on it.
I was surprised to see Leyton Orient at 5/4 to beat Exeter City because the Grecians haven't won at Brisbane Road since December 1995 and I've priced Leyton Orient at nearer 9/10 or evens. I may decide what to do with that one tomorrow morning, it might be worth either laying Exeter outright, dutching Orient/draw or just backing the hosts outright.
I haven't avoided Manchester United v West Ham, I just haven't got round to crunching the numbers yet but I've got an unexpected opportunity to do that today. I'll also have a look round the summer leagues and possibly a bit of racing and so I'll be back later with Part 2...
First of all two apparent no-brainers, although as I found out to my cost last season when they only beat Bolton 1-0, Chelsea don't always score a hatful against the poorer Premiership sides and I was quite surprised when the Blues hammered Stoke 7-0 towards the end of 2009/2010. Even though it looks as if Chelsea have started this season they way they finished the last one, I don't think that score is likely to happen again and there's compelling evidence that this game will have more than 2.5 goals. Here are the stats:
* 16 of Chelsea's last 20 home games in the Premiership have featured over 2.5 goals including eight of the last ten; Chelsea have scored in all of those games and there hasn't been a 0-0 in that sequence.
* 11 of Chelsea's last 20 home games against Stoke have featured over 2.5 goals, Chelsea have scored in eighteen of them and there's only been one 0-0 draw in that sequence.
Looks pretty solid to me, but despite the fact that they'll never win many style points, Stoke are no mugs and will have learned from last season's defeat.
It could be argued that Wigan's appalling record stems from last season's 9-1 hammering at Spurs and the Latics couldn't have come up against Tottenham at a worse time, especially as Peter Crouch now has the Champions League theme as his ring tone! In their twelve Premiership away games since that battering, Wigan have let in 33 goals (2.75 per game) so recommending over 2.5 goals in their game at Spurs isn't one of the toughest decisions I've ever made.
One thing that may be worth taking into account both in this game and in the Champions League is that since beating Wigan last season, Tottenham have only scored more than two goals in Premiership matches at White Hart Lane on two occasions as it's their home defensive record that's the foundation of their recent success - six clean sheets in the last ten home games in the Prem is pretty good. A 3-0 or 4-0 Spurs win might be the way to go here.
A couple of streaks in the Championship that are worth look: Bristol City haven't won at Ipswich since September 1978 and Preston haven't won at Sheffield United since November 1978. I've dutched Ipswich/draw and Sheffield United/draw, primarily because although City and Preston haven't won these games for a while, they are capable of drawing them.
League 1 provides a couple of headscratchers this weekend. I'd leave Brighton v Walsall alone because this is another example of the away side having a really strong record against the home team; Albion haven't beaten Walsall at home since March 1988 and this game has been played six times in the league on the South Coast since! No idea what's going to happen at the Withdean tomorrow, although I'll keep an eye on it.
I was surprised to see Leyton Orient at 5/4 to beat Exeter City because the Grecians haven't won at Brisbane Road since December 1995 and I've priced Leyton Orient at nearer 9/10 or evens. I may decide what to do with that one tomorrow morning, it might be worth either laying Exeter outright, dutching Orient/draw or just backing the hosts outright.
I haven't avoided Manchester United v West Ham, I just haven't got round to crunching the numbers yet but I've got an unexpected opportunity to do that today. I'll also have a look round the summer leagues and possibly a bit of racing and so I'll be back later with Part 2...
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