Something For The Weekend 25/9/10

Let's get to it. Games in England and Scotland first plus a couple to avoid.

Barclays Premier League
Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic
There's always the chance of a draw when Birmingham are at home, but as they've never lost at home to Wigan in the league and have won the last three games at St. Andrews, they look good value to me. If you're going to look at this one on the exchanges, you know what I'm going to suggest...yes, dutch Birmingham and the draw. And if you really want to go mad, lay Wigan.

Fulham v Everton
Fulham are worth a straight bet; this will be Everton's second trip to West London in the past week and the last one didn't end so well - beaten by Brentford on penalties in the Carling Cup. Fulham have won ten of the last twelve and the last time there was a draw between these two at Craven Cottage was in April 1965; so a draw is overdue. Doesn't mean there'll be one: but as it's not likely to be a high scoring game then it can't be ruled out either. Dutching Fulham/draw and backing under 2.5 goals also look like they could pay out.

Additional info: 80% of games in the Premiership this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

nPower Championship
Coventry City v Preston North End
Two clubs apparently going in opposite directions. Coventry haven't lost at home this season and Preston's away record is dreadful so this looks as if it's clear cut: the problem comes with the head to head stats: the last two games between these two at the Ricoh Arena have been draws. I still think it's worth backing a Coventry win, but dutching Cov/draw might also be a profitable outcome. Preston are on my Relegation Radar but more of that in a couple of weeks.

Additional info: 72% of games in the Championship this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

nPower League 2
Morecambe v Barnet
I've already mentioned Barnet's ineptitude away from Underhill this season and there's no reason to think they're suddenly going to turn it around at Morecambe's new Globe Arena stadium. True, Morecambe started this season with three home draws (might be a spot of New Stadium Syndrome there) but they haven't lost at home since the end of January. Back Morecambe but have an insurance dutch just in case Barnet pinch a point.

Additional info: 73.8% of games in the League 2 this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

Interesting, but save your money:
nPower Championship
QPR v Doncaster
You get the feeling that if Rangers melt down at any point this season it'll be self inflicted. They won't win every game at Loftus Road this season, but as Doncaster haven't won there since February 1952 it's unlikely they'll lose this one but the problem is that a QPR win has no value. They've got Millwall next Tuesday though and they're a different kettle of fish entirely.

Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Albion Rovers v Elgin City
Albion have only lost once at home in their last ten games but their home record against Elgin is horrible. Three wins in the last ten indicate that perhaps you shouldn't be fooled by the short odds for Albion.

East Stirling v Berwick Rangers
Consecutive weeks on this list indicate that East Stirling could be a team to avoid in the long - the Scottish version of Brighton perhaps. Another home game where the visiting team has a far superior head to head record; East Stirling have won two of the last three games between these two at home, but Berwick won the other seven; the visitors are top of Division 3 and haven't lost so far. If I was in the Falkirk area I'd drop in and have a look at this one as it looks like an intriguing game.

Additional info: 64.5% of games in the Scottish 3rd Division this season have finished as either home wins/draws. Hmmm. Not surprising looking at the info above.