Free Tips For Friday and Saturday

FRIDAY
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.


Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.


4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.

Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.

Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:

Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker

Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.