Tips For December 4th

Main one is don't go out unless you have to!

Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.

Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves

Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals

Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.

Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.

UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.

Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.

I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.

The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.

I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.