MNF: Eagles at Redskins

I knew that the Washington Redskins have not been amongst the best teams in the NFL recently, but I hadn't realised exactly how bad they've been until I was researching their game against the Philadelphia Eagles this evening.

Any team in any sport that has only won nine of their last 20 home games isn't going to be a good one, but when you've only won eight of the last 20 games against one of your biggest rivals at home then you've got a real problem. That's the Redskins for you. On the other hand, the Eagles have won 11 of their last 20 road trips and eight of the last ten games between these two at Fedex Field. So this looks likely a fairly straightforward Eagles win to me...but guess what. No value for an Eagles win.

Happily, the points cut off is 42.5/43 and this is where there is an advantage. The last 20 games head to head in Washington have been pretty low scoring affairs (36.5 points per game) and even when the Eagles victories are looked at in isolation the average is on 38 points. Under 42.5 is also promising from the point of view of the Redskins last 20 homes and the Eagles last 20 aways, although Philadelphia road games have an average of 45.1 points - but at this point it's worth remembering that they don't play at Washington every week.

Here's the blatant promo for Betfair...I love their tiered points markets for NFL games. They've got markets for 31.5, 41.5 and 51.5 points and so the recommendation is to lay over 51.5 points on Betfair.