NFL: Steelers v Patriots

Steelers look as if they'll win this one.

They've  won 14 of their last 20 regular season home games at Heinz Field by an average of 10 points and six of the last ten games against the Patriots (nine of 14 all time in Pennsylvania). It's not like the Patriots have the worst road record over the last 20 games (50% wins) but they've only won three of their last ten games away from Foxboro.

Should be around 42/43 points but the bookies are looking at over/under 44.5 or 45, so on the face of it under would probably be the bet - which would be supported if Pittsburgh won, as only three of those 14 victories mentioned above have featured over 44.5 points. The average number of points in Steeler victories over the Patriots at Heinz Field is 42.

A Pittsburgh victory by 1-6 or 7-12 points could also pay off (both are available at around 5.0/5.5), but once again I'm going to record the game and watch it tomorrow. This week I've got some time to put a proper NFL preview together for Week 11 so I'll make some definite recommendations then.