Monday Night Football 1st November

Had a good holiday in the South of France, fortunately the weather stayed fine although it was bl**dy windy! Still, back to 'work' and so let's get to it.

Blackpool v WBA (Premiership 8:00pm GMT)

The type of game Blackpool need to win to stay in the Premiership. First meeting in the top tier since August 1970 (Elvis was number one with 'The Wonder Of You' if you're interested), which is also the last time Blackpool beat the Baggies in the league. Difficult to tell how this one is going to turn out although Blackpool have only won three of the the last ten meetings in the league at Bloomfield Road, so the goals market might be promising.

Here's another potential problem though. Blackpool haven't scored at home before half time and WBA haven't scored an away goal before half time, but both teams don't seem to have any problems scoring in the second half. 69% of the total goals scored in Premiership games featuring these two have been scored after an hour and both teams have either scored or conceded late goals.

Recommendation: over 2.5 goals although it shouldn't be a shock if the first half ends 0-0. This also automatically rules in laying 0-0. Wild guess: draw or WBA.

Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans (NFL, 12:30am Tuesday morning)

Far simpler to determine the outcome here, although I noticed from last month's results that my NFL picks were dreadful and so if you're reading this then add a moderate dose of caution. The Colts have won all eight games against the Texans in Indianapolis since the Texas joined the league but despite - or perhaps because of that stat - there's no value in a Colts win.

As usual the total points market is weird, with values ranging from 39 points (Betfair) to 51.5 (Bet365). The head to head average is 50.125 with five of the last eight games over that. I think Betfair may have come up with 39 points based on how these teams have performed recently rather than specifically against each other and so the recommendation is laying under 39 points on Betfair.

A full programme of games in Leagues 1 and 2 tomorrow night and there are a few decent looking opportunities that I'll bring you tomorrow. 

Update 10:31pm GMT: Oddschecker got the Betfair line wrong - their over/under line is 49 points not 39. Avoid this game completely, although it'll be worth watching.