Sunday In Scandinavia

I managed to get the original list of five games down to three, of which two look worthwhile and one needs some extra logic applied to it. But first of all, I have to admit to feeling immensely pleased with myself: Fluminense won 3-1 so yesterday couldn't really have gone any better.


Today's action kicks off at Malmo at 3:30 GMT where the hosts take on GAIS in the Allsvenskan. I could just cut and paste the next comments from some of the other previews I've written recently, but I'm going to write it again for the sake of emphasis: Malmo have not been trailing either at half time or at full time of any of their home games this season. GAIS haven't exactly been awful away from home (they have only lost four of their last ten away games in the Allsvenskan); that's a little different from the other part of the home win equation that's come up in the past couple of weeks and effectively reduces the chances that Malmo will win both halves. So - once again - it's a dutch on Malmo or draw for the first half, which looks like this:


Malmo £2.27@2.12 = £2.54 profit 
The draw £2@2.4 = £2.80 profit
GAIS leading at half time = £4.27 loss
Dutch profit: 53p (which I can go wild with!), although the total return would be £5.87.
Insurance: draw or GAIS to at least cover the £4.27 loss - although if the game is a draw at half time then that bet is a good one too. That's exactly what happened with the Dynamo Moscow game yesterday.


However, even if the game is a draw at half time, I think there's enough evidence to point to a Malmo win - there's no time for reams of stats today so you'll have to trust me.


Malmo win £2 @ 1.52 = £1.04 profit, total return £3.04.
Draw or GAIS win: £2.00 loss
Insurance: draw or GAIS to cover the £2 loss.


The next couple of games are in Norway, both kick off at 5pm GMT. The most straightforward of the two is between Viking Stavanger and Sandefjord - the latter are rock bottom of the Eliteserien and have lost 12 of their last 20 away games. They satisfy one of the major requirements for a home win: Sandefjord have lead at half time or won away this season. You could lay Sandefjord to be behind at half time and lose the game, but the liabilities are large, so at the risk of being predictable I'm going to recommend exactly the same strategy as  the Malmo v GAIS game above.


The last game is a tricky one. Tromso v Stabaek qualified for my basic system but on closer inspection this one of those games where the away side has an extremely good head to head record against the home team. In fact, Stabaek have won four of the last eight games in Tromso between the two and have drawn half of their away games in the Eliteserien this season. There's a reasonable possibility of a draw but at this point I normally look for what's least likely to happen in this game and in this case it's goals.


Tromso have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 games and have only let in more than one goal on one occasion in that period, so whichever way you look at it they have a strong defensive home record. The last four matches in the series at the Alfheim Stadium have been close - no more than one goal in those games - and despite there being 2.87 goals per game in the Eliteserien this season this game looks as if it might be under 2.5. Two ways forward here:


Lay Over 2.5 goals - £2 @ 2.1, which would mean a total liability of £4.10 if it turned into a goal fest but a profit of £2 if it didn't. This can be a good option if you're looking to trade as soon as a goal is scored but predicting when that might be is an art rather than a science.


Alternatively, lay Over 2.5 goals as soon as the game goes in play, wait ten minutes then back it whatever the price is. Then do the same thing again. Then stop and wait for a goal and repeat step one. This is what I'm going to do - so I need to find my stopwatch!


I'm going to look at some of today's baseball match ups now, but I'll update this post with what happened in the Scandinavian games later on. I'm also aware that I've not posted my major European soccer predictions yet, but there is still some research to be done.