Insurance Part 100

Harbinger surprised a more than a few people on Saturday and once again the insurance paid off. I'm really intrigued about how things have been going lately, it's been fun in a weird kind of way, the most preposterous hot streak I think I've had for a long while. I've got a pretty good idea why it's happening but I'm going to wait until the end of the month before analysing the results.

Anyway, there's a system game on Monday evening: Helsingborg v BK Hacken in the Swedish Allsvenskan. Malmo won 1-0 on Saturday (thanks to an Agon Mehmeti goal after 41 minutes) which means a Helsingborg win would send them into first place. This next bit sounds really familiar: Helsingborg haven't been behind at half time in home games all season and haven't lost at home all season either. This scenario seems to be cropping up a lot at the moment. In which case, it's probably fair to assume that Hacken won't be ahead at half time and Helsingborg will win the game; the insurance bet would be a half time double chance (usually available at bwin.com) for the draw or Hacken.

Thanks to the data at the excellent h2hstats.com site, there is another good reason for choosing a Helsingborg win. Of the teams that are currently involved in their league seasons, Helsingborg have the joint best points per game average at home (shared with Corinthians in Brazil's Serie A, who won again on Sunday) and the third best points per game average in all games (behind Zenit St. Petersburg in Russia and Derry City in Ireland).

Given the ambiguous position I find myself in due to horse racing, rather than recommending a straight lay I'm going to back Romantic Queen in the 4:00 at Wolverhampton this afternoon with a view to laying her later if the price moves as I expect it to.