Monday Night Football

Very quick post because one of the games this evening is worth a look because the odds are very weird: Trelleborg v Halmstad in the Swedish Allsvenskan satisfies my basic system requirements but the head to head statistics are freaky and have given the odds compilers a real headache.


The problem in a nutshell: Trelleborg have won just two of the last twelve meetings between these two at the Vangavallen Stadium (including the last one) and despite currently being below Halmstad in the league table they have a reasonably good home record - it's Trelleborg's away form that's appalling and their record away from home is slightly actually better than Halmstad's current away record.


Recommendations: the usual - Halmstad haven't lead at the half all season but as there's a 50% chance of a draw then dutching Trelleborgs/draw looks like the way forward. However, I would strongly recommend an insurance bet of draw/Halmstads. However, I'm also going to recommend a Trelleborg win on Betfair because Halmstad need to score to have any chance at all and they've only scored three goals in eight away games in the league season - the insurance bet here is draw or Halmstad, which should be available at a decent price before kickoff.


The other game is in the Norwegian Eliteserien and should be more straightforward. Valerenga have not lost at home this season and can move into second place with a win over Start this evening; Start have won their last two away games (against struggling Sandefjord and Molde, both of whom are beneath them) but have only won five of their last 20 road trips.


And guess what? Valerenga haven't been behind at half time. If you've been paying attention you know what to do, but as an added bonus tonight's game features the leading scorer in the Eliteserien, Mohammed Abdellaoue of Valerenga. He's scored 31% of their goals this season and is worth a punt for either first goal/anytime goalscorer, which is only available at bet365.


Right, got to go...have to put the money on!