Cup Final Day!

Cup Finals in England, Scotland and Germany today but the only one I'm going to get involved with is the German final between Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen at 7:00pm GMT (8:00pm CET).

Chelsea and Dundee United should win today but Dundee United's game against Ross County is problematic because the stats I normally use to compile odds are not particularly useful when comparing teams from different divisions. Chelsea should probably beat Portsmouth at Wembley, but as I found out last night, heavy favourites don't always win games they ought to on paper. I backed Real Sociedad to beat Castellon in La Liga 2 but despite being reduced to eight men, Castellon (who are bottom of the division) hung on for a 0-0 draw against Sociedad (top of the division).

I'm definitely looking for a Huddersfield win this lunchtime in their play off game against Millwall but I learned a lesson this week in the Cardiff v Leicester City game. Cardiff got to Wembley to meet Blackpool in the final, but lost the game (I backed them to win) which had to be decided on penalties ie outside the 90 minutes. What I should have done is picked Cardiff to qualify - and that's yet another strategy to remember for Cup Finals. Going back to Chelsea v Portsmouth, it may be worth picking Chelsea as tournament winners if they score first, but the odds may not be worth taking at that point.

Will post later about Bayern Munich v Werder Bremen, but have to monitor the Huddersfield v Cardiff game now. I'm also recommending laying Verdant in the 2:30pm race at Newbury this afternoon.