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Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.

Thursday, 2 September 2010

'It isn't necessary to see a good tackle. You can hear it.'

The title is a quote from legendary college cootball coach Knute Rockne and the NCAA Football season kicks off tonight (or tomorrow morning if you're me) and I've struck some season long bets on some of the conferencnes. I am really looking forward to both the college and the NFL seasons starting and I'll have some NFL recommendations posted over the next week or so.


To be fair to most of the online bookies, they've now worked out that there are a lot of American Football fans based in Europe who follow NCAA Football as well as the NFL version and so there are a much wider range of markets than there were even a couple of years ago. And as with almost every other sport, it definitely pays to shop around for the best odds - I've opened two new accounts in the past week. Trading can be a bit of a problem with late kick offs though, especially when Hawaii are at home; it's a bit like the LA baseball teams - I've actually watched extra innings games from the West Coast while I've been eating breakfast before now.


Without further ado, here are the selections I've already made:


Big 12 North: Nebraska
Big East: Pittsburgh
PAC 10: Oregon
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State


(Pitt and Middle TN games are on the calendar, the rest will be up ASAP)


I've still got to place bets on the ACC, Big 10 and the SEC but that'll probably be on Saturday morning and even then I might leave the Big 10 alone - if Ohio State pummels Marshall tonight then they won't be worth backing for the Big 10 at all.


There are a couple of Week 1 games worth a look: ESPN America kicks off their coverage of the 2010 season with the South Carolina/Southern Mississippi game (back South Carolina, even though the price is rubbish) and I'm backing Iowa State to beat Northern Illinois. I've had a quick look at Saturday's programme and there are three games that look promising but more of them tomorrow.


I'm leaving the Euro 2012 qualifiers alone - England don't have any value at all, I'm expecting them not to lose. However, there is a really outstanding opportunity to implement the Strategy Without A Name in the Airtricity Premiership on Friday evening. Shamrock Rovers haven't lost at home to Sligo Rovers since January 1996 and there's an astonishing  60% chance of a draw at half time - so dutching Shamrock/draw for both the first half and the final score is what I'm recommending. I've not taken a detailed look at the goal expectation in this game but I expect it to be low.


There are a number of games in League 1 and League 2 this weekend that also look promising but I'll only post those that are worth looking at when I've run the numbers. I've also decided to double my Betfair stake from £2 to £4 so now I can think of any profits as pints rather than the weekend edition of the Racing Post ;-)


Final August Betfair figures: profit £27.54 (baseball £1.90, horse racing £7.60, soccer £18.52, tennis -0.48p)


Must do better at tennis in September then!

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