Thanks For Reading, But This Site Is Closed.

I'm afraid that it's for me with blogger.com.

I don't live in the USA so I'm not entirely sure why I should have to subject myself to the laws of another country and - by implication - accept the terms of Google AdSense when it comes to gambling.

I've been running this blog for almost a year without any kind of issue, but within days of having added a bet365.com banner to the site I got an e-mail from Google AdSense asking me to make changes to the site.

I'm quite happy to do that. The site is now closed. Thanks for reading - if you'd like to keep up with what I'm doing, please visit The Soccer Blog, Buzzin' Championship Football, 11 Lions or The Soccer Savant, I am currently importing this blog into Wordpress, where it will be known as http://tradersixtyfour.wordpress.com/.

Free Tips For Sunday 10th April

A bit of an experiment today - all the games apart from Ujpest/Debrecen are low stakes bets and two of them are double chances rather than dutches as the odds are better. Helsingborg are today's possible home bankers.

Allsvenskan
3:30pm
HELSINGBORG v Elfsborg
Helsingborg/draw double chance
Result: Helsingborg 1, Elfsborg 0

Hungary NB1
4:30pm
Ujpest v Debrecen
The only trap element is that Debrecen haven't won away from home, which may be the reason for the frankly ridiculous price they've been given. Ujpest/draw double chance.
Result: Ujpest 2, Debrecen 2 - Ujpest had to come from behind twice courtesy of a brace from Estonian strike Jarmo Ahjupera.

Norway
5:00pm
Aalesund v Haugesund
Double chance Aalesund or draw,although if this game came up later in the season with the same numbers I'd be recommending a home win.
Result: Aalesund 1, Haugesund 0


Tromso v Start
Dutch home/draw
Result: Tromso 2, Start 0

7:00pm
Rosenborg v Lillestrom
Rosenborg's two defeats to start the 2011 Tippeligaen after going undefeated in 2010 have come as a shock to those that have backed for the title (ie me) and although it's far to early to write them off, another loss would be catastrophic. I'm leaving them alone until they've reached some kind of equilibrium, so this is watching brief only although I'd be surprised if Rosenborg lose today.

Free Tips For Saturday 9th April

A real mixed bag today due to an incredible one selection coming up from my main system and several coming up using 'rough and ready'.


Here's the main one:


Croatia
5:00pm
Zadar v Osijek
The hosts have only lost twice at home this season - to Hajduk and Sibenik, although they've not played Dinamo Zagreb at the Stanovi Stadium yet - whereas Osijek have underperformed this season and have lost three of their last four road trips. Zadar haven't lost any of the last five meetings between these two and that record looks set to continue. Home/draw dutch.
Result: 1-1


Here are the 'rough and ready' selections: they're all home/draw dutches but it's worth remembering that I haven't been as thorough in my investigations for these games as I have for the Zadar/Osijek game and I would recommend smaller stakes for the following games. If anything caught my eye I'll add a note under the game. All kick offs are 3:00pm GMT, Ipswich are probable home bankers.


Barclays Premier League
Tottenham v Stoke
Tottenham haven't lost a home game in the Premier League on the weekend after an away Champions League game and haven't lost at home since August.
Result: Spurs 3, Stoke 2


nPower Championship
IPSWICH v Crystal Palace
Palace have lost eleven of their last 13 away games, although it's only fair to point out that they won this fixture last season.
Result: Ipswich 2, Crystal Palace 1

Portsmouth v Preston
Portsmouth are terrific value for the win, but this game is definitely worth home/draw dutching.
Result: Portsmouth 1, Preston 1


Scottish 1st Division
Falkirk v Partick Thistle
Result: Falkirk 2, Partick Thistle 3


Scottish 2nd Division
Ayr v Forfar
An Ayr win is good value
Result: Ayr 3, Forfar 1

Brechin v East Fife
Result: Brechin 1, East Fife 3


Scottish 3rd Division
Berwick v Montrose
Result: Berwick 0, Montrose 1

Queen's Park v Elgin City
Result: Queens Park 1, Elgin City 0

Should be back tomorrow, but if not enjoy the weekend.

Moving On...Free Tip For Friday

That's three working days as far as I'm concerned, AdSense has been disabled and there's nothing in my inbox...so normal service has been resumed.

Friday
Hungary
4:00pm
VASAS v MTK
Another Budapest derby and I'm recommend opposing MTK today - Vasas have a very impressive record in the league at the Rudolf Ilovsky stadium and they're actually the most improved home team in NB1 compared to last season. MTK? Not so much. The home/draw dutch should be safe here.
Result: Vasas 1, MTK 1 - after taking the lead, MTK were down to nine men at the end due to two 'tackles' that would have earned red cards in just about any version of football I can think of.

More tomorrow, enjoy the sunshine!

Open Statement To Google and AdSense (Part 2)

With regard to your e-mails of Monday 4th April and Monday 11th April 2011, I would like to point out that I have been writing this blog since April 2010 and had not previously received any correspondence whatsoever regarding compliance with your program (sic) policies. I am assuming that you are referring to the bet365 banner on the homepage.

I would like to make it clear that this blog is produced entirely in the United Kingdom, where gambling is legal. I have disabled AdSense as requested but I will not remove the banner unless specifically requested to do so: if you make that request or make any subsequent requests concerning the content of this blog I will close my Blogger account and move this blog elsewhere.

Mike Roberts
Bristol, United Kingdom.

Free Advice For Monday 4th April

Lost amongst all the noise of an admittedly extremely exciting weekend in European football is the no less amazing story coming from Norway: Rosenborg lost again yesterday, this time to a Stabaek side that had been hammered at home by Lillestrom before the international break. As in 'hammered 7-0'. At home. Let that sink in a bit.

The last Rosenborg lost two consecutive games in the Tippeligaen was at the end of the 2008 season, when they finished fifth, fifteen points behind Stabaek. I wouldn't completely rule them out of a title challenge, but in a competition that only plays 30 games a season, a six point deficit is a large one.

Today's games are both from Scandinavia, something a little different from Sweden as I'd not be surprised if AIK nick it - and if they're going to do that, they'll need to score.

Norway
6:00pm
Lillestrom v Brann
Lay Brann or dutch home/draw.
Result: Lillestrom 1, Brann 4. The early season craziness in Norway continues.


Sweden
7:00pm
Djurgardens v AIK
Lay 0-0.

Back tomorrow, possibly with some Champions League, but probably with some more comments about Accrington Stanley.

Free Tips For Sunday April 3rd

Hungary
4:30pm
DEBRECEN (nap) v Gyori
Intriguing game between these two: Debrecen play like champions at home record (unbeaten at home in the last 20 league games) but like relegation candidates away; Gyori have only lost five times in their last 20 aways but have only won five road trips over the same period. This game was made for dutching home win/draw or laying Gyori.
Result: Debrecen 1, Gyori 1

Norway
5:00pm
Start (nb) v Stromsgodset
Dutch the home win/draw and back over 2.5 goals.
Result: Start 5, Stromsgodset 1. Which is what happens when you have a man sent off within 10 minutes of kickoff.

The Rosenborg/Stabaek game is actually this evening, which is fine from a 'wasn't going to get involved' point of view but rubbish if I had been. I try to check kick off times as often as possible, but I obviously need to check multiple sources.

Back tomorrow with more tips, might have some tentative recommendations for the Champions League this week.

Free Tip For Saturday April 2nd

With Greece having reached 27 games and Belgium into the playoffs, it's time to wave those competitions goodbye for this season. I'll be going back to looking at Portugal next weekend, so it's basically Croatia, Hungary, Norway and Sweden from now on, with occasional forays into the end of season action in England and possibly MLS (if I can work out what the hell they're actually doing over there).

Yes, there is only one main recommendation for today, but that's a sign that the 'winter' seasons are coming to an end. There are a lot of games tomorrow.

Hungary
4:00pm
SZOMBATHELY (nap) v Kecskemeti
There's enough here to suggest a Szombathely win without being bothered with anything else. However, in the interests of risk management Szombathely draw no bet might be better: Kecskemeti haven't managed an away draw for over 20 games and that's enough of a trap for me.
Result: Szombathely 1, Kecskemeti 0 - Peter Toth scored the winner in the second minute of injury time.

Norway
I'm expecting Rosenborg to batter Stabaek today, but the Rosenborg win price isn't worth taking so I'm leaving it alone. It'll be interesting to see what happens though.

Free Tips For Friday 1st April

It's tempting to throw some ridiculous tips in for April fool's day but I don't think anyone would notice ;-)

Hungary
4:00pm
Kaposvari v Vasas
Bit of a warning: the last time I recommended opposing Vasas in an away game with a strong favourite, they won: they're still averaging less than one goal away from home this season and Kaposvari are averaging 2.7 at home.
Result: Kaposvari 0, Vasas 1. I'll be reviewing the policy of opposing Vasas away from home as a matter of urgency as it's clearly the wrong call! 

6:00pm
Ferencvaros (nb) v Ujpest
The biggest Budapest derby: some trap elements here as Ferencvaros have lost three of their last four home games against their biggest cross town rivals, but today's game is probably Fradi's best chance of beating them for a while. Ujpest's away form this season has been awful.
Result: Ferencvaros 1, Ujpest 0

Norway
6:00pm
VALERENGA (nap) v Aalesund
I eventually managed to get a Tippeligaen preview done, you can find it here. I'm also going to recommend using a lower stake for this game as this is only Week 2 in Norway and with Rosenborg's defeat last week I think it's safe to say that things haven't exactly gone to form so far. Valerenga didn't lose at home last season and I don't think they'll lose this one - Aalesund don't like travelling to the Ullevaal (they've lost seven of their last eight there) and I don't think they'll get anything this evening.
Update: dutching Valerenga/draw is pointless, it's probably better to lay Aalesund.
Result: Valerenga 2, Aalesund 0

Baseball 2011

It's opening day in Major League Baseball and as you might expect, being a fan of some American sports I'm pretty excited. Unfortunately I've not had enough time to come up with any sort of preview for the National League, but here's my take on the American League:

Eastern Division
Will probably come down to the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays - and the current lay price for the Red Sox is extremely tempting. Laying the Red Sox and then backing the Yankees and Rays looks like a really good play.


Central Division
Dutch the Twins and White Sox to win and lay Detroit.


West Division
Declaration of personal interest: I am an Oakland fan. That being said, this is a three horse race between Oakland, Texas and the Angels. I'm not going to bet on Oakland this season, but I'm happy to recommend dutching Oakland and Texas.

ALCS
I'm going to keep clear of any ALCS predictions until 40 games have been played.

Today's Games:
OK, this is where the fun starts. These recommendations are based on my football system, but as there can't be a tie in a baseball game then everything is simpler yet somehow more complicated. All the teams in yellow had a winning record at home in 2010 and all their opponents had a losing record on the road. So yes, that means I'm recommending the Nationals over the Braves, but I'm also recommending that minimum stakes should be applied for the time being.

First pich times in GMT in green - I'm following the football convention of naming the home team first.

6:05pm
Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves
(the Nationals have won seven of the last ten games against the Braves at Nationals Park, but have lost their last five home openers...it's a risk, but it might pay off)
Result: Nationals 0, Braves 2

NY YANKEES (nap) v Detroit Tigers
Result: Yankees 6, Tigers 3

7:10pm
Cincinnati Reds (nb) v Milwaukee Brewers
Result: Reds 7, Brewers 6 - Ramon Hernandez hit a three run homer at the bottom of the ninth to give the Reds the win! Exciting finish!

9:15pm
St. Louis Cardinals v San Diego Padres
Result: Cardinals 3, Padres 5 (extra innings) - Cardinals looked as if they'd won it, but there you go.

Free Tip Accrington Stanley v Hereford

nPower League 2
7:45pm
Accrington Stanley v Hereford
Hereford have won the last two league games at the Crown Ground and although Accrington have won five consecutive league games, Hereford recently won five consecutive aways and may be a better side than their league position suggests. It's either feast or famine with these two and so I'm going to recommend Accrington draw no bet.

Long term, I'm wondering if Accrington might not be in the mix for promotion next season - their home record over the last 20 games is 12-4-4 but they need to make the transition from difficult to beat to promotion standard, which usually means an improvement in away form.
Result: Accrington Stanley 4, Hereford 0

Free Tips For Tuesday 29th March

Three games caught my attention,  it'll come as no surprise that two of tonight's away teams are rubbish. All kick offs are 7:45pm GMT.

nPower League 1
Dagenham v Brighton
Under 3.5 goals. Brighton have kept three consecutive away clean sheets in League 1 and have a ten point lead over Huddersfield: their last four aways have finished 1-0 and although Dagenham can usually find the back of the net at home (they've not been shut out at home for seven games) they're up against a team that is literally a different class.
Result: Dagenham 0, Brighton 1

EXETER (nap) v Swindon
The only probable here is that Swindon won't win. The visitors have had the best of it in Devon over the last ten meetings (an amazing five wins and four draws) so this is actually the best chance that Exeter have of beating Swindon since April 1980. Will they do it? Who knows, I'm only interested in Swindon not winning. Dutch Exeter/draw and possibly have a nibble on a correct score of 1-1.
LUNCHTIME UPDATE: the markets are moving away from an Exeter win to a draw - the main reason appears to be because Exeter will have two of their first team defenders suspended.
Result: Exeter 1, Swindon 0. To paraphrase Private Wilson from 'Dad's Army', Swindon are 'doomed!'

nPower League 2
Port Vale (nb) v Lincoln
A quick return to Vale Park after last Saturday's 0-0 draw with Bury, which I am no longer angry about. Tonight the hosts entertain Lincoln City, who were thumped 6-0 at home last week but - like Swindon at Exeter - have a weirdly impressive record at Port Vale. However, last season Port Vale won this game 4-0 and although I don't think it's going to be that one sided, I can't see Port Vale losing. Oppose Lincoln however you like.
Result: Port Vale 2, Lincoln 1

Back tomorrow for Accrington Stanley v Hereford.

Free Tips For Sunday 27th March

A bit disappointed with yesterday, I can cope with the outliers (Leyton Orient and Stevenage) but getting Port Vale and Bury wrong was a case of not thinking it through. Still, today's another day and here are my recommendations.

nPower League 2
3:00pm
Oxford United v Burton Albion
Oxford ought to get into the not losing at home: arguably it's their lack of home draws that's going to keep them from reaching the playoffs in their first season back in the Football League. They've not drawn any games with the current bottom six this season and although Burton are a few games behind everyone else at the foot of the table, they're also in that position on form as well - two wins in their last ten away games.
Recommendation: Oxford draw no bet will produce a better return so I'm going for that.
Result: Oxford 3, Burton 0. Burton also had two men sent off.

nPower League 1
4:00pm
HUDDERSFIELD v Notts County
I was originally looking at this from a total goals point of view, but it quickly became apparent that the usual dutching strategy would work. If the hosts win they'll have a gap between themselves and Peterborough and be in a commanding position for the second automatic promotion spot. Notts could still find themselves in relegation trouble but they've only lost four of their last ten aways and have a reasonably tough defence: Huddersfield haven't exactly been banging the goals in either.
Recommendation: dutch home win/draw
Result: Huddersfield 3, Notts County 0

There are a lot of catch up games in the lower leagues in England this week, I'll do my best to keep on top of them. There'll definitely be a post towards the end of next week, the Allsvenskan starts and it's Week 2 in Norway.

Free Tips For Saturday 26th March

Saturday's tips for the lower divisions in England - the kick off times are all 1:00pm so everyone can go to the pub afterwards to watch England beat Wales.

nPower League 1
1:00pm
BOURNEMOUTH (nap) v Charlton
It looks wrong, doesn't it? If I remember rightly a few years ago these two were at opposite ends of the league. Anyway, Charlton have lost two of their four games at the current top six this season and they're currently on a four game away losing streak. Although Bournemouth lost their last home game, each time they've lost at Dean Court in the league this season they've won the next game.
Result: Bournemouth 2, Charlton 2


Leyton Orient (nb) v Yeovil
Now this is a bit more like it. Yeovil aren't totally out of the woods at the bottom of League 1 while any slip ups from Bournemouth (see above) would mean that Leyton Orient could easily overtake them and end up in the play offs. The hosts haven't lost at home in the league for 14 games and I can't see them losing this one either.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Yeovil 5 - when you're down to ten men after fourteen minutes this is exactly the sort of thing that happens.

Watching Brief Only
Brighton v Swindon
This is a classic end of season trap game - Brighton are undefeated at home and are ten points clear of the competition with ten games left. Swindon have got to start picking up points over the next few games otherwise they'll have gone from the play offs last season to relegation this season. Brighton's win price is far too short and not worth bothering with.
Result: Brighton 2, Swindon 1

nPower League 2
1:00pm
Aldershot v Accrington Stanley under 3.5 goals
Macclesfield v Stevenage under 3.5 goals
Port Vale v Bury over 1.5 goals
Results: OK, I'm going to admit that I should have approached Port Vale v Bury from the opposite under of spectrum as it finished 0-0. Aldershot v Accrington finished 1-1 and Stevenage battered Macclesfield 4-0.

Friday's Free Tip

Friday
nPower League 1
7:45pm
MK DONS v Walsall
Walsall have lost all four games that they've played at the current top six, but this is also the fourth time this season that MK Dons have gone into a home game having won the previous three - and they always seem to blow the fourth leg. If the hosts were a racehorse I'd give them extra points for having won within a five day period on the same ground as they beat Peterborough on Monday night. With that streak issue, it shouldn't come as a massive surprise that I'm recommending the dutch home win/draw.
Result: MK Dons 1, Walsall 1

Free Tips For Tuesday 22nd March

It's the international break this weekend, which means that I'm looking at the lower leagues in the UK this week and probably finalising my divisional baseball tips.

Four games tonight came to my attention, all of them look as if they away side won't win but I've made notes where appropriate. All kick off at 7:45 GMT


nPower League 1
BRIGHTON (NAP) v Notts County
Careful. Brighton are undefeated at home and Notts haven't lost to any of the teams in the top six away from home (win and two draws)
Result: Brighton 1, Notts County 0

Leyton Orient (NB) v Dagenham
Leyton Orient unbeaten at home against teams in the current bottom six and have only conceded one goal in those matches.
Result: Leyton Orient 1, Dagenham 1

nPower League 2
Aldershot v Barnet
Barnet haven't won consecutive away games in the league since the beginning of 2008/9.
Result: Aldershot 1, Barnet 0


Port Vale v Hereford
Slight difference here as Hereford have only drawn once in their last 20 aways in League 2 so I'm going to recommend Port Vale draw no bet and laying Hereford.
Result: Port Vale 1, Hereford 1

I'll admit it - I got lucky tonight. Late goals at Leyton Orient and Port Vale saved the day!

Sunday 20th March

Time is of the essence as I've got a busy day on Saturday...I've decided to divide this post into two sections as the Norwegian tips should be backed with smaller stakes as it's the beginning of their season.

Update: this should be interesting. I've been visiting my niece and her family and didn't get any of the bets on. Let's see what happens.


Hungary
4:30pm
Ujpest v MTK
Ujpest one home defeat this season, MTK one away win. The hosts have won the last two league meetings but MTK have won five of the last ten at the Ferenc Szusza stadium - Ujpest draw no bet.
Result: Ujpest 2, MTK 1


Greece
These are the last tips for Hellenic League this season as this is Week 27 - if Olympiakos win they're champions and apart from the relegation spots everything else looks done and dusted. I've deliberately ignored teams in the relegation zone this week.

5:00pm
Iraklis v Panionios
Under 3.5 goals
Result: 1-1


OLYMPIAKOS v AEK
Far be it from me to suggest any impropriety, but it does look as if the champions elect lost at PAOK last weekend so they could win the title in front of their own fans. AEK are no mugs, having won four of their last five road trips so I'm going to suggest the usual dutch here - because Olympiakos haven't drawn (or lost!) so far this season.
Result: Olympiakos 6, AEK 0


Panathinaikos v Kerkyra
It would take a strange set of results over the last four games for Panathinaikos to win the title and they need to win this game and hope that Olympiakos lose at home to AEK. I don't think that's going to happen - oppose Kerkyra.
Result: Panathinaikos 2, Kerkyra 1


Norway
Keep the stakes realistic as this is just the first week.
5:00pm
Odd Grenland v Start
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Odd Grenland 0, Start 2

Tromso v Haugesund
Oppose Haugesund
Result: Tromso 2, Haugesund 0

7:00pm
Brann v Rosenborg
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Brann 2, Rosenborg 1

LOL, bl**dy typcial - they all came in on the day I didn't put any of them on!

Free Tips For 18/19 March 2011

Four games to start the weekend with, one each from Croatia and England and two from Hungary. All kick offs GMT.

Friday
4:00pm
Croatia
Inter Zapresic v Istra 1961
The hosts are currently just about value for the win, but a home win/draw dutch should be fine. It's unlikely that Istra 1961 will keep a clean sheet - they've only done that once in ten away games this season.
Update: Mirko Kramaric scored for Inter after four minutes, game over after 26 minutes. Final score: Inter 3, Istra 1.

6:00pm
Hungary
FEHERVAR v Debrecen
There are a couple of subtle traps in this game - Debrecen haven't won away from home yet this season and the away side hasn't won in games between the top four in NB1 in 2010/2011. The visitors also have a decent record at Fehervar/Videoton (only lost one of the last five) but their away form this season hs been absolutely appalling - only Szombathely and Szolnoki MAV have worse records.

However...the last time the hosts won three consecutive home games in NB1 they lost the fourth, so prepare yourselves for a shock: dutch the home win/draw but be prepared for a surprise away win. Risk management appears to be the key here.
Update: Laszlo Lencse goal put Fehervar/Videoton ahead just after the hour, Adamo Koulibaly equalised about five minutes later.
Full time: Fehervar 2, Debrecen 1.

7:45pm
nPower League 2
Chesterfield v Rotherham United
This looks like an absolute bargain at the price it was available for on Wednesday morning - Rotherham haven't won at any of the other clubs in the current top seven and although this marks the start of a potentially tricky looking run in for Chesterfield, the Spirerites should win this.
Update: Chesterfield 5, Rotherham 0.

Saturday
2:00pm
Hungary
Lomabard Papa v Kaposvari Rakoczi
Over 2.5 goals, it's also possible that both teams might score but there seems to have been a decline in goals in NB1 since the restart after the winter break.

3:00pm
Hungary
PAKSI SE v Szombathely
Not quite as nailed on as it could be, because the visitors haven't won away this season (last away win 12 games ago) and although Paks are currently on a five game undefeated streak at home they're not exactly dominant. Guess what...a home win/draw dutch.

nPower Championship
Ipswich v Scunthorpe
Will Scunthorpe go the whole season without an away draw? There are only five opportunities to go before the end of the season and although Ipswich have won all six league games between these two since their first meeting at Portman Road in 1958, both teams are awful at the moment. Ipswich have lost their last three home games, Scunthorpe have lost seven consecutive away games - have a nibble on a draw, combined with 0-0 as the correct score.

Norwegian Tippeligaen
(The summer's here...word of warning: for the first couple of weeks, I'm going to be heavily relying on the numbers from the 2010 competition)
Viking v Valerenga
Over 2.5 definitely from a head to head perspective is highly likely, but I'll keep it simple to start with and recommend over 1.5 goals. Key stat: 60% of Viking's home games last season featured over 3.5 goals, as did 33% of Valerenga's away games.

4:00pm
Croatia
VARAZDIN v Slaven Koprivnica
Slaven have drawn their last four away games and Varazdin haven't lost at home all season: head to head shows that although the hosts have only lost one in the last ten at home, they've drawn four of those games. It's got draw written all over it...dutch home and draw.

Random Champions League Facts

Here's a quick round up of the Champions League Quarter Finalists - figures in brackets represent how many times the club has won the European Cup/Champions League, the notes below the names represent success in the Champions League only.

Barcelona (3)
Winners in 1992, 2006 and 2009; runners up 1994
Chelsea (0)
Runners up in 2008
Manchester United (3)
Winners in 1999 and 2008, runners up in 2009
Real Madrid (9)
Winners in 1998, 2000 and 2002
Schalke (0)
Quarter finals in 2008
Shaktar Donetsk (0)
Group stage three times
Spurs (0)
First season in the Champions League - reached semis of the European Cup in 1961/62.
Inter Milan (3)
Winners in 2010

One thing sticks out straight away - the four clubs who haven't won the Champions League have all won other European competitions.

Since reorganisation, finals between the remaining nations have shaken out like this: 
3:
Spain v Italy (Spanish clubs won twice)
2:
England/Italy (one win each; both games were between Liverpool and Milan)
Spain/England (Barcelona won both)
Germany/Italy (one win each)
Germany/Spain (one win each)
1:
England/Germany (Manchester United won)
England/England (Manchester United won)
Spain/Spain (Real Madrid won)

It's highly likely that one of these combinations will be this season's final - the only wildcard are Shaktar Donetsk.

Wembley finals: English clubs have won two of the five finals at Wembley, the only other nation left in the tournament that has provided more than one finalist is Italy. Only one Spanish team has played in (and won) a final at Wembley - Barcelona in 1992.

Spanish clubs have won the last three finals they've played in. The last Spanish club to lose a final was Valencia in 2001: Barcelona haven't lost a final since 1994, Real Madrid since 1981.

The Premier League has provided half of the last ten finalists but only one winner - and that was from the all English final in 2008.

English, German and Italian clubs have all lost more finals than they've won since the European Cup was re-launched as the Champions League.

Since 1990/91, only two teams have won the Champions League in their own country - Juventus in 1996 and Borussia Dortmund in 1997. Worryingly for Chelsea and Spurs, those victories were not in either Turin or Dortmund.

Free Tips For Tuesday 15th March

Not a bad weekend: there were only two expensive mistakes (Vasas beat Ujpest 1-0 with ten men and suddenly - at the end of the season - Greek sides remembered how to score goals) but I think the word 'satisfactory' is appropriate here, especially as Nick Watney did the business in the golf.

Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.

nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.

nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.


nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.

The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.

It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)

1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew