Picked up a nice little profit: £4.06 ($6.48) on the Start v Brann game in the Norwegian Eliteserien. Start won 3-1 but also lead at half time - the stats before the game are useless now so I won't bother including them, let's just say they were the right fit even though there was another one of those weird head to head records.
Rosenborg now have a nine point lead in Norway - they won 3-1 at Sandefjord on Saturday and Valerenga lost 2-0 at Haugesund yesterday. There are ten games left to go, but after the games that will be played on Sunday 17th October I'll be leaving the Eliteserien alone as there'll be three weeks left and that's normally when results start getting weird. Not only that, the major European leagues will start generating possibilities.
Nothing worth looking at on Monday, but if I find anything over the next couple of days I'll let you know.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Monday, 9 August 2010
Saturday, 7 August 2010
Major European Leagues 2010/2011
The major European leagues start this month and I've taken a look at the last 20 seasons for each of them to see if there are any patterns, trends or streaks. They're there if you look for them, but most of them have become 'Cold Wars' in the last two decades: if you're lucky, there might be more than two clubs involved in the race for honours at the end of the season but the only genuinely competitive contests I can see at the moment are in Italy and Turkey. Still, here's my provisional list with the logic behind the selections.
Netherlands (started last night): Ajax or PSV Eindhoven
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Ajax Best Price: 2.25 (Betfair)
85% of the winners of the Eredivisie have finished in the top three places the season before, which looks as if it’s good news for FC Twente,Ajax Wolfsburg
When my selections play each other: Ajax v PSV Eindhoven Sunday 21st November, the return is Sunday 27th February - both games may be on ESPN.
France (starts 7th August): Marseille or Lyon
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Lyon Best Price: 2.88 (Extrabet)
Lyon's streak of seven consecutive French titles was broken by Bordeaux 2008/09 and it looks as if Ligue 1 might be a showdown between Lyon and Didier Deschamps' resurgent Marseille side, who won their first title since the one they forfeited in 1992/1993. Lyon and Marseille have won 11 of the last 20 titles; Bordeaux and Auxerre - who last won Ligue 1 in 1995/96 - could make it competitive but Bordeaux will have to cope without Marouane Chamakh who has moved to Arsenal and former manager Laurent Blanc who has the thankless task of taking over the French national team.
When my selections play each other: December 18th Marseille v Lyon, return 7th May - four games before the end of the season.
Portugal (starts 13th August): Benfica or FC Porto
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Benfica Best Price: 2.1 (many)
Another league where repeat winners are likely - which might mean a record 33rd title for Benfica, although winning back to back championships isn't something they've done since the mid 1980s and the sale of Argentinian playmaker Angel De Maria to Real Madrid could have an impact. Runners up Sporting Braga achieved their best ever position in the league but could find the Champions League too much of a distraction; Andres Villas Boas' FC Porto are probably the biggest competition for Benfica.
When my selections play each other: FC Porto v Benfica November 7th, return April 3rd.
Premiership (starts 14th August): Manchester United or Chelsea
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Chelsea Best Price: 2.7 (Paddy Power)
Only five clubs have won the Premiership or equivalent in the last two decades: Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal have won eighteen of the last twenty. Arsenal haven't won anything in the last five seasons; Manchester City haven't won the title since 1968.
When my selections play each other: Chelsea v Man United 18th December, return May 14th - penultimate game of the season.
Turkey (starts 15th August): Galatasary or Besiktas
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Fenerbahce Best Price: 2.88 (Sporting Bet)
A pleasant surprise last year: Bursaspor won their first title and became only the second club outside Istanbul to win the Super Lig. They have a chance of winning a second title but Galatasaray and Besiktas (with new signings Guti and Ricardo Quaresma) might be the teams to watch; Fenerbahce cannot be completely discounted either, but the runners up in the previous season have only gone on to win the league once in the last two decades. Istanbul BB (often referred to a Buyuksehir on coupons) might be an extremely dark horse - both Bursaspor and Fenerbahce (2002/03) won the title after finishing sixth the season before.
When my selections play each other: Galatasaray v Besiktas 28th November, return 1st May.
Netherlands (started last night): Ajax or PSV Eindhoven
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Ajax Best Price: 2.25 (Betfair)
85% of the winners of the Eredivisie have finished in the top three places the season before, which looks as if it’s good news for FC Twente,
When my selections play each other: Ajax v PSV Eindhoven Sunday 21st November, the return is Sunday 27th February - both games may be on ESPN.
France (starts 7th August): Marseille or Lyon
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Lyon Best Price: 2.88 (Extrabet)
Lyon's streak of seven consecutive French titles was broken by Bordeaux 2008/09 and it looks as if Ligue 1 might be a showdown between Lyon and Didier Deschamps' resurgent Marseille side, who won their first title since the one they forfeited in 1992/1993. Lyon and Marseille have won 11 of the last 20 titles; Bordeaux and Auxerre - who last won Ligue 1 in 1995/96 - could make it competitive but Bordeaux will have to cope without Marouane Chamakh who has moved to Arsenal and former manager Laurent Blanc who has the thankless task of taking over the French national team.
When my selections play each other: December 18th Marseille v Lyon, return 7th May - four games before the end of the season.
Portugal (starts 13th August): Benfica or FC Porto
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Benfica Best Price: 2.1 (many)
Another league where repeat winners are likely - which might mean a record 33rd title for Benfica, although winning back to back championships isn't something they've done since the mid 1980s and the sale of Argentinian playmaker Angel De Maria to Real Madrid could have an impact. Runners up Sporting Braga achieved their best ever position in the league but could find the Champions League too much of a distraction; Andres Villas Boas' FC Porto are probably the biggest competition for Benfica.
When my selections play each other: FC Porto v Benfica November 7th, return April 3rd.
Premiership (starts 14th August): Manchester United or Chelsea
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Chelsea Best Price: 2.7 (Paddy Power)
Only five clubs have won the Premiership or equivalent in the last two decades: Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal have won eighteen of the last twenty. Arsenal haven't won anything in the last five seasons; Manchester City haven't won the title since 1968.
When my selections play each other: Chelsea v Man United 18th December, return May 14th - penultimate game of the season.
Turkey (starts 15th August): Galatasary or Besiktas
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Fenerbahce Best Price: 2.88 (Sporting Bet)
A pleasant surprise last year: Bursaspor won their first title and became only the second club outside Istanbul to win the Super Lig. They have a chance of winning a second title but Galatasaray and Besiktas (with new signings Guti and Ricardo Quaresma) might be the teams to watch; Fenerbahce cannot be completely discounted either, but the runners up in the previous season have only gone on to win the league once in the last two decades. Istanbul BB (often referred to a Buyuksehir on coupons) might be an extremely dark horse - both Bursaspor and Fenerbahce (2002/03) won the title after finishing sixth the season before.
When my selections play each other: Galatasaray v Besiktas 28th November, return 1st May.
Germany (starts 20th August): see if you can guess.
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Bayern Munich Best Price: 1.65 (bwin)
One horse race. Bayern Munich have won nine of the last 12 editions and although runners up in the Bundesliga have about a 25% chance of winning the title the following season, the last time Schalke won the title Buddy Holly was still alive and the Bundesliga didn't exist. Werder Bremen and Stuttgart might provide the competition this season: the last time Kaiserslautern were promoted as champions (1996/97) they went on to win the Bundesliga. Might be worth looking at Bundesliga without Bayern for some value, but I might leave that until a few games have been played.
Key fixtures: anything after the end of October.
Italy (starts 28th August): wait and see
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Internazionale Best Price: 2.1 (many)
There have been a few coaching changes amongst the favourites and I'm going to adopt a wait and see policy, although I'm not convinced that Inter will extend their streak of five consecutive titles and Milan and Roma could capitalize if Rafa Benitez' new team stumble. I'm going to advise against Juventus now - current lay price for the old lady to win the Scudetto on Betfair is 6.2.
Key fixtures: any between the teams mentioned above after the end of October.
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Bayern Munich Best Price: 1.65 (bwin)
One horse race. Bayern Munich have won nine of the last 12 editions and although runners up in the Bundesliga have about a 25% chance of winning the title the following season, the last time Schalke won the title Buddy Holly was still alive and the Bundesliga didn't exist. Werder Bremen and Stuttgart might provide the competition this season: the last time Kaiserslautern were promoted as champions (1996/97) they went on to win the Bundesliga. Might be worth looking at Bundesliga without Bayern for some value, but I might leave that until a few games have been played.
Key fixtures: anything after the end of October.
Italy (starts 28th August): wait and see
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Internazionale Best Price: 2.1 (many)
There have been a few coaching changes amongst the favourites and I'm going to adopt a wait and see policy, although I'm not convinced that Inter will extend their streak of five consecutive titles and Milan and Roma could capitalize if Rafa Benitez' new team stumble. I'm going to advise against Juventus now - current lay price for the old lady to win the Scudetto on Betfair is 6.2.
Key fixtures: any between the teams mentioned above after the end of October.
Spain (starts 28th August): Barcelona or Real Madrid
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Barcelona Best Price: 1.85 (bwin)
A genuine cold war but an intriguing one between Real Madrid or Barcelona. Barcelona are on a hat-trick of titles but that's not be done since they won four in a row between 1991 and 1994 and the weight of expectation on Jose Mourinho's shoulders will be massive. Waiting to see how the early form amongst the also rans shakes out and then looking at the 'Winner Without Barcelona or Real Madrid' market could be the way forward here: Getafe and Valencia might look good at that point.
When my selections play each other: Barcelona v Real Madrid, 28th November, return 17th April.
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Barcelona Best Price: 1.85 (bwin)
A genuine cold war but an intriguing one between Real Madrid or Barcelona. Barcelona are on a hat-trick of titles but that's not be done since they won four in a row between 1991 and 1994 and the weight of expectation on Jose Mourinho's shoulders will be massive. Waiting to see how the early form amongst the also rans shakes out and then looking at the 'Winner Without Barcelona or Real Madrid' market could be the way forward here: Getafe and Valencia might look good at that point.
When my selections play each other: Barcelona v Real Madrid, 28th November, return 17th April.
Thursday, 5 August 2010
Helsingborgs Remain Unbeaten...Just
Helsingborgs 3, Djurgardens 3: A very, very, very late equaliser by new signing Alexander Gerndt saved Helsingborgs' unbeaten home record. The goal not only completed his hat-trick but also saved me £16 ($25) as I was so confident that Helsingborgs wouldn't loose that I'd laid Djurgardens at 9.0.
Helsingborgs played the entire second half with ten men after Marcus Lantz was given a straight red following a two footed tackle on Djurgardens' Kennedy Igboananike, who had opened the scoring a couple of minutes earlier. Despite their nunerical disadvantage, Helsingborgs were leading 2-1 after 57 minutes - which is arguably where I should have traded out - however, the insurance was in place and I was going to let the bet ride when Gerndt scored his third.
Aftonbladet has clips from the game here, may be up on Youtube tomorrow.
Overall the last couple of days have been interesting to say the least - a 73p loss on Betfair which was offset somewhat by the 1p overall profit on the half time insurance bet of draw/Djurgardens. I spent more than that on my lunch today but arguably the most significant thing that's happened over the last couple of days is that I successfully laid Safari Guide at Kempton yesterday - so the bizarre July 'winning' streak was snapped at four and I'll be recommending some more lays when some worthwhile prospects come up.
Helsingborgs played the entire second half with ten men after Marcus Lantz was given a straight red following a two footed tackle on Djurgardens' Kennedy Igboananike, who had opened the scoring a couple of minutes earlier. Despite their nunerical disadvantage, Helsingborgs were leading 2-1 after 57 minutes - which is arguably where I should have traded out - however, the insurance was in place and I was going to let the bet ride when Gerndt scored his third.
Aftonbladet has clips from the game here, may be up on Youtube tomorrow.
Overall the last couple of days have been interesting to say the least - a 73p loss on Betfair which was offset somewhat by the 1p overall profit on the half time insurance bet of draw/Djurgardens. I spent more than that on my lunch today but arguably the most significant thing that's happened over the last couple of days is that I successfully laid Safari Guide at Kempton yesterday - so the bizarre July 'winning' streak was snapped at four and I'll be recommending some more lays when some worthwhile prospects come up.
Wednesday, 4 August 2010
If It's Thursday, It Must Be Helsingborg
Thursday evenings are now becoming synonymous with the Europa League, which has now got to the stage where I recognise the names of most of the teams left in it, although I've got to be honest and admit I know nothing about Qarabagh Agdam of Azerbaijan.
I know a little about Swedish football and I would imagine that current Allsvenskan leaders Helsingborgs would rather qualify for next season's Champions League rather than what used to the UEFA Cup. The club - know locally as the Milk Cows - can take a big step towards achieving that when they play Djurgardens tomorrow evening.
Helsingborgs' perfect home record this season probably won't be threatened by Djurgardens - who are currently just above the relegation zone - but as they only have to play one of the current top five clubs in their last seven home games (against Gefle on September 11th) there's a chance they may remain unbeaten. Djurgardens don't have a bad record at Helsingborgs (two wins in the last three league games) but given the hosts form I'd be surprised if the visitors get anything from the game.
The strategy I'm advocating won't be a huge surprise, although I'm currently thinking of a name to describe dutching the home team to either be winning or drawing at half time so I can have a snappy way to refer to it. Whatever it ends up being called, almost 80% of games in the Allsvenskan this season have seen the home team unbeaten at half time and I'm also going to recommend a Helsingborgs win, but goals may be few or far between in this game - on average there have been 2.27 goals per game in the Allsvenskan so far and neither of these teams have particularly prolific strikers at their disposal. Goal hotspots seem likely between 30 minutes and half plus the last ten minutes of the game so I'm tempted to try a couple of 'ten minute' cycles immediately after kick off. And if anyone's interested, my stopwatch is in the kitchen ;-)
Not sure how many articles I'll be able to post over the weekend as my mum is visiting, I'm going to see David James' first appearance for Bristol City on Saturday afternoon and Sunday is my wedding anniversary!
I know a little about Swedish football and I would imagine that current Allsvenskan leaders Helsingborgs would rather qualify for next season's Champions League rather than what used to the UEFA Cup. The club - know locally as the Milk Cows - can take a big step towards achieving that when they play Djurgardens tomorrow evening.
Helsingborgs' perfect home record this season probably won't be threatened by Djurgardens - who are currently just above the relegation zone - but as they only have to play one of the current top five clubs in their last seven home games (against Gefle on September 11th) there's a chance they may remain unbeaten. Djurgardens don't have a bad record at Helsingborgs (two wins in the last three league games) but given the hosts form I'd be surprised if the visitors get anything from the game.
The strategy I'm advocating won't be a huge surprise, although I'm currently thinking of a name to describe dutching the home team to either be winning or drawing at half time so I can have a snappy way to refer to it. Whatever it ends up being called, almost 80% of games in the Allsvenskan this season have seen the home team unbeaten at half time and I'm also going to recommend a Helsingborgs win, but goals may be few or far between in this game - on average there have been 2.27 goals per game in the Allsvenskan so far and neither of these teams have particularly prolific strikers at their disposal. Goal hotspots seem likely between 30 minutes and half plus the last ten minutes of the game so I'm tempted to try a couple of 'ten minute' cycles immediately after kick off. And if anyone's interested, my stopwatch is in the kitchen ;-)
Not sure how many articles I'll be able to post over the weekend as my mum is visiting, I'm going to see David James' first appearance for Bristol City on Saturday afternoon and Sunday is my wedding anniversary!
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