Sunday's NFL Wildcard Games

Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 v Baltimore Ravens 12-4


Baltimore look underpriced to me, although this may be because Kansas have only won six of their last 20 home games in regulation time (2-1 in overtime). It's also difficult to assess this game in head to head terms as they've only met once in the regular season in Kansas since the Ravens were established in 1996: Baltimore won 20-10 in December 2006.


Although the Chiefs are 7-1 at home, they're only 1-0 against teams that finished with a winning record in 2010 and the Week 1 win over the Chargers was arguably their toughest home game of the season. Baltimore are 5-3 on the road but were 2-2 on the road against teams with winning records and had a brutal schedule that featured four teams that have reached the playoffs. If Baltimore can beat the Jets and the Steelers and lose to the Patriots and the Falcons by less than seven points on the road they should be able to handle the Chiefs.


Recommendation: enjoy the game - but if Baltimore win, it's worth remembering that eight of the last 20 Superbowl winners finished the regular season 12-4. 17 of the last 20 winners had 12-4 records or better. For what it's worth, I think the Ravens will dominate in a low scoring game.


Philadelphia Eagles v Green Bay Packers (both 10-6)

An intriguing contest to finish Wild Card Weekend. The Eagles are favourites, which isn't much of a surprise considering the Packers have lost their last three road games - to be fair to Green Bay those losses were by an average of just over three points so at least the games were close.


The head to head stats in games between these two in Pennslyvania also favours the hosts - although Green Bay won 27-20 in Week 1, the Eagles had won eight of the previous ten regular season meetings by an average of 15 points. They've also won both of the post season meetings in Philadelphia, including the 1960 NFL Championship Game - the only playoff game that legendary Packers coach Vince Lombardi ever lost.


In 2010 the Eagles were 4-4 at home this season but were 3-1 against teams that finished with winning records: two of those games were against other playoff teams. They lost three of the four home games with sub .500 records, closing the season with two defeats. So it looks as if the Eagles are the type of team that can raise their game against good sides but may fall down against poor ones.


On the other hand, it's not hard to see why the Packers are in the Wild Card round - 3-5 on the road and 2-3 against teams with winning records. They lost to three divisional winners (Bears, Falcons and Patriots) which is hardly the sort of form to take into a road game against the Eagles, who won the NFC West.

Recommendation: although the Eagles should win, neither of these clubs will probably reach Superbowl XLV - only one team with a 10-6 record has in the last 20 seasons (the 2008 Giants) - but with the Saints having been sensationally dispatched by the Seahawks last night, whoever wins this game will have a great chance of reaching the NFC Championship. Like the Seahawks/Saints game last night, lay whoever wins the game for Superbowl XLV.

Overall, I'm not really wavering from my prediction that the Patriots are the AFC team to beat in the playoffs but Pittsburgh and Baltimore are definitely worth considering if New England lose to the Jets next weekend. Both have 12-4 records, which has been good enough for eight wins in the last 20 Superbowls. In the NFC, only Atlanta and Chicago look as if they're good enough to reach North Texas next month, with the Falcons being the better team. Curiously, 13-3 teams - like the Falcons - have lost seven of their 13 appearances in the Superbowl. Although the picture is still unclear, I have a tentative recommendation: back the AFC to be the winning conference in Superbowl XLV - although not many bookies have prices available yet.