NFL Wildcard Games (Saturday)

Seattle Seahawks 7-9 v New Orleans Saints 11-5
There shouldn't be a surprise here - the Saints are the short priced favourites and their current win price has no value whatsoever. The all time head to head record between these two in Seattle is 3-3, but the problem the Seahawks face is that they're 1-3 at home this season against teams that finished with winning records and the Saints are 4-1 on the road against teams that finished with losing records.

I think we're looking at a two touchdown win for the Saints in a game that's going to feature approximately 47 points...but the big question mark over this game is that New Orleans has to win a playoff game on the road for the first time. In comparison, Seattle is 5-2 in home playoff games and has won four straight: there is some upset potential here.


Recommendation: whatever happens in this game, it's unlikely that either of these teams will win the Superbowl. Although back to back winners aren't unheard of (the Cowboys, Broncos and Patriots have all managed to do this in the last 20 years), there have only been four winners who emerged from the Wild Card Round since 1990.
Lay whoever wins this game for Superbowl XLV.

Update: 44 points at half time, with the Saints ahead.

Indianapolis 10-6 v New York Jets 11-5
Surprisingly, the Colts are value to win this game. They are 6-2 at home, a record that included two wins over sides that finished over .500 (Giants, Kansas City). The Jets finished the regular season with an impressive 6-2 on the road, but were 1-2 against teams with winning records (lost to New England and Chicago but beat Pittsburgh).

Additionally, the Colts have won 12 of last 20 against the Jets at home, but have only won three of the last five regular season games. The only time these teams have met in the playoffs was last January (Colts won 30-17); the Colts are 10 of 15 in home playoff games (that includes the games when they were the Baltimore Colts) and the Jets are 5 of 14 in road playoff games - which includes the two games they won last season before being knocked out by Indianapolis.
Recommendation: Colts win.