Monday Night Football 7th March

Staggering weekend - having tweaked some of the parameters in the total goals area, I hadn't expected to be so successful so quickly. Lots of games this week so let's see if I can keep it up.

Premier League
8:00pm
Blackpool v Chelsea
Chelsea are a silly price for the win so there's no point in backing them and as I think there should be a few goals in this one the main decision should be roughly how many.

Before going any further, I think it's only fair to point out the obvious traps in this game. Blackpool have won a lot of friends with their all out attacking style and as a consequence they've scored in every home league game this season - but at some point they're not going to score at Bloomfield Road and it might be this evening. Blackpool haven't kept a clean sheet at home all season - something they've done five times on their travels in 2010/11, which is better than Manchester United!

The implications from the information above are that 'both teams to score' and 'away clean sheet' are currently at a very competitive prices and 'home clean sheet' is hilariously bad. Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets in 14 away games in the Premier League this season although two of those came in the last three games...which is presumably the David Luiz factor at work.

Basically, I think the market that's best placed to produce a win is over 1.5 goals - taking traps into account, I can see this being a Chelsea win containing probably over 2.5 goals and maybe even both teams to score, but I'm not going to take the risk implied in the odds available for those markets. To recap, Chelsea's win price isn't worth bothering with, there'll be goals but how many depends on the Chelsea defence rather than the Blackpool attack and it could be fewer than expected.

Sunday 6th March

Got caught out on Saturday because the kick off times weren't 'as advertised', the only one that I missed was Gyori v Vasas - which I would have lost. Still, even that did not spoil what turned out to be an excellent day's tipping.


Greece
1:00pm
Kavala v Asteras
Back under 3.5 goals, although this is a similar sort of situation to the game between Aris and Iraklis on Saturday evening.


Olympiakos Piraeus v Ergotelis
Lay 0-0 as long as the price isn't too ridiculous, which it is for the Olympiakos win.


Hungary - watching brief only
4:30pm
Honved v Ferencvaros
Lay 0-0, but at time of writing this market was totally unexposed and as I had a late night last night and I'm not feeling particularly brave this morning (!) I'm leaving that alone. However, it looks as if there could be goals in this game, probably somewhere over 1.5 and under 3.5 but that's about as specific as I'm going to get today.


Oh and I almost forgot...
Liverpool v Man United
Avoid the outrights markets, although there might be a case to be made for the draw simply because there hasn't been one for a while and United (along with Fulham) are this season's away draw specialists in the Premier League. Can't see this being packed with goals either...and there hasn't been a 1-1 at Anfield since February 1986.

Tuesday Tips

I'll start this post with a moan and some information: the lack of draws in the games below mean that backing a tie in both of them could result in a nice payout. That's the information: this is the moan.

I'm giving up with Portuguese football for a while - unless you're backing the big three to win every week at stupid prices, the Liga Sagres is completely inconsistent from week to week. That alone might make it exciting to follow and the lack of goals is more or less guaranteed, I did the accounts last night (after the Naval/Braga game) and Portuguese football is basically a money pit for me.


Croatia
2:00pm
CIBALIA v Zadar
Cibalia are far too short to consider backing, especially as they've not drawn at home this season and Zadar haven't drawn away. However, the put this game into perspective, Cibalia have only lost once in the twelve games they've played at Stadion Cibalia since they last drew there and Zadar have lost twelve of their fourteen games since they last drew away.


Recommendation: over 1.5 goals and under 3.5 looks about right, as does Cibalia keeping a clean sheet. The problem is that this game is chronically unexposed and it may be worth checking the markets before kick off to see if there's any interest at all...which I've just done. There isn't. Have £1 (or local equivalent) on the draw.

Update: off to a winning start in March...finished 0-0.


nPower Championship
7:45pm
Portsmouth v Scunthorpe
Beware the draw - Scunthorpe haven't had one on the road since December 2009, but having lost their last five away games in the Championship without scoring a goal it probably goes without saying that drawing at a ground where they've not won since February 1964 may be beyond them. I find it hard to believe that they won't draw one away game this season and it might be this one - straight dutch could do the trick.


As for Manchester United and Chelsea, although the hosts have gone backwards at home this season, United haven't won at Stamford Bridge for over a decade in the league and I'll be surprised if they do tonight. Low scoring game, possibly a draw. The big question is will Ashley Cole be on target today?

Weekend Football Betting Tips

Seems a bit odd that I've not posted for almost a week, but unfortunately I had to attend a funeral on Tuesday and I've been catching up since I got back.

From next week onwards, I'll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven't been released yet.

There are a couple of reasons for this:

1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn't have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon's website should give you a flavour of what to expect.

2. I'm involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense - especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.

Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.

Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.


3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.


Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest's 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point...just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.


Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don't win, so there's something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price - although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.


Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves' record at City isn't that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price - there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves' away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool.  Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.

Spain
5:00pm
Villareal  v Osasuna

Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements - Villareal haven't lost at home, Osasuna haven't won away and the hosts haven't actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)


Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander

Oppose Racing - there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven't drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.

France

8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre's price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.


PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.

Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals - Sporting haven't scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals - Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that's the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.


SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle

I wasn't expecting this at all when I started research this game - Sunderland's home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I'm really tempted to say do it at your own risk - although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn't have to motivate his side, Newcastle's record at Sunderland speaks for itself.

Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven't been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.

Portugal

4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they're up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won't tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren't as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.


France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux

Oppose Bordeaux. They've won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that's not saying much.

Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica

A rare away win recommendation, but there's something of a revenge element in this game - Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.

Wednesday Tips Part 2

Sometimes you've got to laugh at this game. I managed to pick the Greek match that featured three goals in as an almost guaranteed under, with two others ending in scoreless draws. Bolton are tonight's home banker.

Premiership
7:45pm
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Villa are only in a mess due to their appalling away record this season, so it's a good job that their home form is holding up - they've only lost to Arsenal and Spurs this season. Despite winning at Chelsea, Sunderland's record on the road is almost as bad as Villa's and they've only won once in their last ten league games at Villa Park so opposing the Black Cats in some way is appealling.

8:00pm
BOLTON v Wigan
According to my numbers, the most improved home side against the most improved away side in the Premiership. Wigan have won two of the last five league meetings at the Reebok, but haven't won back to back away games in the Prem since the end of 2006. The Latics have also lost seven of the ten games immediately after they've won an away game. Both teams to score could be worth a look: Bolton have only kept two clean sheets at home this season, Wigan have scored in five of their nine aways this season and have only failed to score twice in fifteen all time league games at Bolton.

Watching Brief
8:00pm
Blackburn v Liverpool
Lots of contradictions here - getting rid of Sam Allardyce looks like a massive mistake and the Ronaldinho transfer rumours are quickly turning Rovers into a laughing stock. Having said that, their home record is still much better than Liverpool's away form and although a draw might not be out of the question, opposing Blackburn could be the right play - if Liverpool lose, it could be the end of the Roy Hodgson era.

Tuesday 4th January

I'll start with the results round up - I only missed on one yesterday (Barnsley v Coventry) as I decided not to touch Atletico Madrid's game because the price had shortened too much before kick off. As a basic rule of thumb I won't back a selection if the returns are going to be less than half of the stake.


I traded out of my position on Reading v Burnley for a small profit, but the situation I was most pleased with on Monday was the goals bet on the Real Zaragoza/Real Sociedad game. Zaragoza's Braulio Nobrega scored right at the end of the game to give the hosts a 2-1 win!


There weren't as many opportunities in today's games as I thought - statistically speaking Manchester United look as if they should beat Stoke, but it might be more profitable to look at over 2.5 goals. Three of the last five league games at Old Trafford have been overs and Stoke have failed to score in eight of their last ten visits, so it looks as if United might have to do all the work. However, although Stoke have been beaten away from home without scoring on three occasions this season, they've yet to concede three or more goals in any of their games in the Premiership.


On the other hand...there might be under 2.5 goals in every game in the Greek Super League over the next couple of days. The likelihood of that happening is remote, so I'm tentatively recommending under 2.5 in the game between Aris Salonica and Kavala - but once again, this depends on the best prices before kickoff (5:30pm GMT). If the price shortens to under 1.5 it's not worth taking.

Late Goals May Be Key To Man U v Arsenal

First of all, although I'll be watching Manchester United v Arsenal I'm not going to get involved - especially as Valencia v Osasuna offers more clear cut opportunities. There's nothing wrong with writing a preview though.

This is easily Manchester United's toughest home game in the Premiership so far this season. Based on Friday's table they've only played one other top five team at home in 2010/11 (Spurs) and the average position of their opponents is thirteenth. Arsenal have had a slightly easier away schedule despite playing at Chelsea and Manchester City.


United should be about evens for the win - they've won seven of their eight home games in the Prem this season and have beaten Arsenal in six of the last ten league meetings at Old Trafford. The Gunners didn't get off to a great start away from the Emirates (four points from 12) but have won their last four consecutive away games.


Unfortunately for the outright markets, that's where any interest ends. The current best prices on the draw no bet market are 4/9 for United and 2/1 for Arsenal: the double chance market isn't even worth considering.


A couple of facts about the goals markets stand out immediately. Despite winning four of the last 20 meetings at United, Arsenal have failed to score more than one goal in the league at Old Trafford since November 1984, so if the Gunners stand any chance of picking three points up in the North West, they have to stop United from scoring.


And there's the rub. United have failed to score only once in the last 50 Premiership games (last December against Aston Villa) and even when they lose at home they score. Arsenal have won 'to nil' twice away from home this season, but beating a Manchester City team that played almost the entire game with ten men and a Wolves team that's clearly struggling doesn't exactly inspire confidence. To underline this point, Arsenal have taken the lead against United in two of the last three league meetings in the North West but only went on to win one of those games.


Looking at it the other way round, if Manchester United stop Arsenal from scoring they will at least earn a point. United have kept four clean sheets in the league this season but Newcastle, West Ham and Wigan don't have the same potential for goals that Arsenal do; nine different players have scored for Arsenal in their away games in the Premiership this season - Marouane Chamakh is the leading scorer with three.

I only usually look at goal times for big games and although I already knew that late goals were a feature of United's games, I was astonished when I took a close look at goal times in games featuring these teams this season. There have been a lot, although strangely enough only two of the late goals in Arsenal's games have had any affect on the result of the game: Pepe Reina's own goal in August meant that the Gunners gained a point at Anfield and a month later Darren Bent's equaliser for Sunderland meant Arsenal dropped rwo points. Since then late goals in Arsenal's away games have either been padding their lead or consolation goals for the opponents.

United's late goals in the Premiership at Old Trafford have a similar pattern - two decisive goals (Berbatov's winner against Liverpool and Park's winner against Wolves), one that made the game safe (Nani's ridiculous goal against Spurs) and one to make the score look one sided (Ryan Giggs against Newcastle).

Verdict: Arsenal probably won't win, but there are a lot of things to keep an eye out for. Will United concede a first half goal for the first time this season? Can Arsenal score two goals at Old Trafford for the first time in a quarter of a century? Will Howard Webb award a penalty or give anyone a red card?

Away from the Premier League, Valencia's game with Osasuna looks far more clear cut. The visitors have only picked up one point away from home this season, Valencia have won nine of the last ten league meetings between the two sides at the Mestalla and this looks like a low scoring game that Valencia should win, possibly keeping a clean sheet in doing so.

Free Tips For Sunday 5th December

Oddly enough, despite being from different leagues, there's a common theme to the games I'm looking at today. With the possible exception of Villareal v Sevilla, the other games feature away sides that aren't doing particularly well at the moment but have decent records at the teams they're visiting today. Bold represents home win, bold caps is a home banker.

Spain
4:00pm
ESPANYOL v Sporting Gijon
Espanyol have failed to beat Sporting Gijon in any of the last six home games in Barcelona, but they're on a seven game home winning streak while Gijon have failed to win any of their last fourteen away games. There are good reasons to support a nibble at an Espanyol clean sheet too - in four of their six home games this season they've prevented their opponents from scoring and Gijon have failed to score in the four away games where they've faced opponents that are currently above them in the league.

6:00pm
Villareal v Sevilla
Villareal have a formidable home record over the last 20 games (only two defeats) and have only lost twice at home to Sevilla in the league in the last decade. There's a bit of health warning on this game though as the visitors have now gone 26 games without an away draw(!) but the last time Sevilla travelled to a top four side Barcelona beat them 5-0. Although Villareal aren't in the same class as Barcelona I think they're a genuine contender for Champions League football next season and they should win this one.

Watching Brief Only
Premiership
4:00pm
Sunderland v West Ham
Raw numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw and opposing West Ham seems like the logical thing to do, but Sunderland's home record against teams that are currently below them in the Premiership features two draws in three games so a draw cannot be completely ruled out. Sunderland have only won eight of their last 20 games at the Stadium of Light and as West Ham haven't won an away game for well over a year now they are due a win at some point; The trouble is will it come today?
Recommendation: nice pot of tea and some crumpets, feet up and curse the fact you didn't back a West Ham win.

Tips For December 4th

Main one is don't go out unless you have to!

Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.

Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves

Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals

Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.

Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.

UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.

Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.

I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.

The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.

I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.

Sunday 28th November

Better performance on Saturday, 61% strike rate with a clean sweep on the recommendations in Croatia - next week is the last round of games there before the winter break.

Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.

Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs

Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.

Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw

Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw

Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.

Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!

Monday Results

Frustrating evening all round, but sometimes that's the game.

As soon as Sunderland v Everton kicked off it looked and sounded more like a cup tie than a league game and with two goals in the first 25 minutes under 2.5 was looking dodgy at best.

Meanwhile, to the south of Madrid, a goal from Real Zaragoza's Argentinian striker Nicolas Bertolo gave his side a half time lead for the first time this season against Getafe - although former Zaragoza striker Adrian Colunga equalised from a penalty shortly after half time and the game finished in a draw, that was the only positive result of the night.

Still, I won this week's game in the NFL fantasy league I play in (6-5 for the season) - and I'll have a team next week, which is more than can be said about former Vikings coach Ray Childress. Minnesota fitted part of the profile of potential Superbowl winners that I posted a couple of weeks ago, but their decline this season is arguably on a par with the meltdown in Dallas.

Looking back at the profile - and taking into account the two games played since I posted it - there's been some movement, but the 8-2 Atlanta Falcons are currently a very tradeable 11.5 (10/1) on Betfair. It might be worth waiting until after their game with the Packers (7-3) on Sunday before making a move.

Monday Night Football 22nd November 2010

Sunderland v Everton 8pm
Looks like a low scoring game with a high draw possibility to me - Sunderland are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but Everton don't have a bad recent record against the Black Cats, they've won four of the last five meetings in the North East. Arguably the safest bet is under 2.5 goals.

Getafe v Real Zaragoza 8pm
Opposing Real Zaragoza in both halves looks like a sound strategy as they've yet to win away or lead at half time, which explains why they're bottom of the league. Having said that...I'm not sure that I've got enough confidence in Getafe winning outright, so dutching Getafe/the draw in both halves looks as if it's worth a go.

I might have a look at the Chargers/Broncos game later on, but I've got some real life stuff to attend to today and given my alarming tendency to back the wrong outcome in the NFL recently then I might just leave it...

Wednesday Night: Evaluation Time

OK, hands up time.
I took a look at my spreadsheets after last night's games and I wasn't happy. There was a 50% chance of the draw in the Spurs v Sunderland game and it was plain as the nose on my face - in a red cell with white writing.

The Championship spreadsheet was also not convinced about an Ipswich win either, so I think it's time for a bit of re-evaluation regarding my game selection - so here's what the numbers are saying tonight:

Premiership:
Chelsea to win both halves against Fulham, although there's a 40% chance of a draw. So opposing Fulham looks like the way forward. That's my only recommendation for tonight, but I'll be monitoring the following games to see if I need to overhaul my system.

* Opposing Blackpool at Aston Villa also looks like it would work
* Everton v Bolton and Manchester City v Manchester United both have about 40% chance of a draw, I'm definitely looking at Everton v Bolton being all square at half time.
* West Ham v West Brom and Newcastle v Blackburn could both be over 2.5 goals, although West Brom have yet to score in the first half away from home.

Championship:
Oppose Bristol City at Swansea, although there's a 64% chance of the game being a draw at half time. I'm leaving that one alone for personal reasons though.

Let's see what happens. I've already started working on some games in Europe over the weekend and I'll be posting my selections on Friday morning.

Tuesday Night Football

Cincinnati 21, Pittsburgh 27
Half right again, although my assessment that Cincinnati needed to score at least 23 points to win was correct, as was laying under 50 points.

Pittsburgh's impressive run against the Bengals continues and as they meet again at Heinz Field on December 12th then I'll run some more numbers at that point. Back to association football today. 

Premiership:
Tottenham v Sunderland
Sunderland have only won once in their last 20 away games and twice in their last 20 visits to White Hart Lane so opposing them looks like the way forward to me. Although seven out of the last ten games in North London have featured over 2.5 goals, neither of these teams have been prolific in front of goal in the Premiership this season and under 2.5 goals might prove a rewarding investment.

Championship:
Ipswich v Derby
Interesting game between two sides in the top six. Ipswich have a good record against the Rams at Portman Road (eight wins in the last ten games) but although they're value for the win, the possibility of a low scoring game means this also looks like a really good opportunity to dutch the Ipswich win and the draw.

There's another game in the Championship that might be worth a small consideration: Burnley v Doncaster. There will probably be more than 2.5 goals in this one, but most of them will probably be in the second half and there's a very good chance that Burnley might score one in the last ten minutes.

Liverpool & Man U Back To Normal?

Not bad yesterday, the only let downs were the lack of second half goals at Norwich and the goal fest at Rotherham, but the latter game finished in a draw so it wasn't a complete wash.


Retrospectively I perhaps should have backed the draw outright in the Wigan v Bolton game but that's a lesson to be applied another day. Due to time constraints I've not been able to work through the numbers, so rather than recommendations I'm just going to go through some scenarios.


Stoke v Manchester United (1:30pm GMT)
United should probably be slight favourites but having drawn four consecutive away games in the Premiership this season then that outcome can't be completely ruled out even though these two haven't shared the points at Stoke since 1980. Additionally Stoke have only won two of the last ten league meetings between them in the Potteries and haven't scored against United at home since December 1984(!)
Wild guess: draw (possibly 1-1) or Manchester United, 0-0 can be pretty much ruled out (last time November 1968). Look for goals around half time.


Liverpool v Blackburn (3:00pm GMT)
Liverpool have been through it over the last couple of weeks but with the ownership issues out of the way and the return of Gerrard and Torres after the Europa League draw at Napoli, this looks like the type of game where a degree of normality could return to Anfield. Blackburn's record at Liverpool is dreadful - they last won there in September '93 - and Liverpool have won seven of the last ten meetings.
Wild guess: Liverpool might be worth backing, but dutching the Liverpool win and the draw wouldn't be the worst idea ever. The longer the game goes on without Blackburn scoring the more chance Liverpool have of winning; could be a low scoring game.

Monday Night Football

It only took UK TV stations 22 years to work out that the Monday Night Football format was a good idea, but there you go. Starting at the beginning of November I shall be previewing both the American Football and Association Football versions, so this is a trial run.

Blackburn v Sunderland (Premiership, 8:00pm GMT)
Looks like a low scoring game with a high possibility of a draw, although a Blackburn win represents value especially if Darren Bent is ruled out. Might have to get the stopwatch out tonight and run the 'five minutes no goals trade', although it may be a good idea to trade out immediately after ten minutes and wait until after 70 minutes before doing it again as that's when these two tend to stop scoring.
Recommendation: Blackburn win, under 2.5 goals. Use the Strategy With No Name for both half time and full time - Blackburn haven't been behind at half time this season and Sunderland haven't won away yet. There's a case to be made for Blackburn winning both halves, but I'm leaving that alone.

Jacksonville Jaguars v Tennessee Titans (NFL 1:30am GMT)
First Monday night meeting between these two: Jacksonville have won six of their eight Monday night home games, Tennessee are 7-9 in Monday night road games but that includes games when they were the Houston/Nashville Oilers: since 2000 the franchise is 4-3 away from home on Monday nights.

The Titans are on a three game winning streak on the road and have won 13 of their last 20 road games; they've won three of the last five meetings in Florida (they lost the corresponding game in Week 4 last season). Jacksonville have won half of their last 20 home games but have lost three of their last five and for that reason I think Tennessee probably just about have enough to win this game - however, the total points market could be where the profit could be made here and 44.5/45 looks too high to me, somewhere between 36 and 42 looks more realistic - especially if the Titans are the favourites. Recommendation: Tennessee to win and under 44.5/45 points - but don't break the bank on the latter.

Something For The Weekend 25/9/10

Let's get to it. Games in England and Scotland first plus a couple to avoid.

Barclays Premier League
Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic
There's always the chance of a draw when Birmingham are at home, but as they've never lost at home to Wigan in the league and have won the last three games at St. Andrews, they look good value to me. If you're going to look at this one on the exchanges, you know what I'm going to suggest...yes, dutch Birmingham and the draw. And if you really want to go mad, lay Wigan.

Fulham v Everton
Fulham are worth a straight bet; this will be Everton's second trip to West London in the past week and the last one didn't end so well - beaten by Brentford on penalties in the Carling Cup. Fulham have won ten of the last twelve and the last time there was a draw between these two at Craven Cottage was in April 1965; so a draw is overdue. Doesn't mean there'll be one: but as it's not likely to be a high scoring game then it can't be ruled out either. Dutching Fulham/draw and backing under 2.5 goals also look like they could pay out.

Additional info: 80% of games in the Premiership this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

nPower Championship
Coventry City v Preston North End
Two clubs apparently going in opposite directions. Coventry haven't lost at home this season and Preston's away record is dreadful so this looks as if it's clear cut: the problem comes with the head to head stats: the last two games between these two at the Ricoh Arena have been draws. I still think it's worth backing a Coventry win, but dutching Cov/draw might also be a profitable outcome. Preston are on my Relegation Radar but more of that in a couple of weeks.

Additional info: 72% of games in the Championship this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

nPower League 2
Morecambe v Barnet
I've already mentioned Barnet's ineptitude away from Underhill this season and there's no reason to think they're suddenly going to turn it around at Morecambe's new Globe Arena stadium. True, Morecambe started this season with three home draws (might be a spot of New Stadium Syndrome there) but they haven't lost at home since the end of January. Back Morecambe but have an insurance dutch just in case Barnet pinch a point.

Additional info: 73.8% of games in the League 2 this season have finished as either home wins/draws.

Interesting, but save your money:
nPower Championship
QPR v Doncaster
You get the feeling that if Rangers melt down at any point this season it'll be self inflicted. They won't win every game at Loftus Road this season, but as Doncaster haven't won there since February 1952 it's unlikely they'll lose this one but the problem is that a QPR win has no value. They've got Millwall next Tuesday though and they're a different kettle of fish entirely.

Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 3
Albion Rovers v Elgin City
Albion have only lost once at home in their last ten games but their home record against Elgin is horrible. Three wins in the last ten indicate that perhaps you shouldn't be fooled by the short odds for Albion.

East Stirling v Berwick Rangers
Consecutive weeks on this list indicate that East Stirling could be a team to avoid in the long - the Scottish version of Brighton perhaps. Another home game where the visiting team has a far superior head to head record; East Stirling have won two of the last three games between these two at home, but Berwick won the other seven; the visitors are top of Division 3 and haven't lost so far. If I was in the Falkirk area I'd drop in and have a look at this one as it looks like an intriguing game.

Additional info: 64.5% of games in the Scottish 3rd Division this season have finished as either home wins/draws. Hmmm. Not surprising looking at the info above.