I'll start this post with a moan and some information: the lack of draws in the games below mean that backing a tie in both of them could result in a nice payout. That's the information: this is the moan.
I'm giving up with Portuguese football for a while - unless you're backing the big three to win every week at stupid prices, the Liga Sagres is completely inconsistent from week to week. That alone might make it exciting to follow and the lack of goals is more or less guaranteed, I did the accounts last night (after the Naval/Braga game) and Portuguese football is basically a money pit for me.
Croatia
2:00pm
CIBALIA v Zadar
Cibalia are far too short to consider backing, especially as they've not drawn at home this season and Zadar haven't drawn away. However, the put this game into perspective, Cibalia have only lost once in the twelve games they've played at Stadion Cibalia since they last drew there and Zadar have lost twelve of their fourteen games since they last drew away.
Recommendation: over 1.5 goals and under 3.5 looks about right, as does Cibalia keeping a clean sheet. The problem is that this game is chronically unexposed and it may be worth checking the markets before kick off to see if there's any interest at all...which I've just done. There isn't. Have £1 (or local equivalent) on the draw.
Update: off to a winning start in March...finished 0-0.
nPower Championship
7:45pm
Portsmouth v Scunthorpe
Beware the draw - Scunthorpe haven't had one on the road since December 2009, but having lost their last five away games in the Championship without scoring a goal it probably goes without saying that drawing at a ground where they've not won since February 1964 may be beyond them. I find it hard to believe that they won't draw one away game this season and it might be this one - straight dutch could do the trick.
As for Manchester United and Chelsea, although the hosts have gone backwards at home this season, United haven't won at Stamford Bridge for over a decade in the league and I'll be surprised if they do tonight. Low scoring game, possibly a draw. The big question is will Ashley Cole be on target today?
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
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Showing posts with label Portugal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Portugal. Show all posts
Tuesday, 1 March 2011
Monday, 28 February 2011
Monday Round Up
No two ways about it, last weekend was disappointing, largely due to a few significant streaks being broken:
* In Croatia, despite having not won at home all season, Hrvatski Dragovoljac have now won two away games.
* In Portugal, Portimonense won their first away game this season and Academica de Coimbra picked up their first away win since the end of November. I've now made incorrect calls on Academica's last two games.
* In Greece, all credit to Kavala for beating PAOK and Panionios for nicking a point from Olympiakos.
Still, there's a busy week coming up and there's no use crying over split milk.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Naval v Sporting Braga
Naval's only home win came a couple of weeks ago against my current bete noire (Academica) but although there's not much to go on, I'd be very surprised if Naval kept a clean sheet: it's been six home games since they kept one and as Sporting Braga have scored in 70% of their away games this season that looks like the way to go. Naval not to keep a clean sheet.
* In Croatia, despite having not won at home all season, Hrvatski Dragovoljac have now won two away games.
* In Portugal, Portimonense won their first away game this season and Academica de Coimbra picked up their first away win since the end of November. I've now made incorrect calls on Academica's last two games.
* In Greece, all credit to Kavala for beating PAOK and Panionios for nicking a point from Olympiakos.
Still, there's a busy week coming up and there's no use crying over split milk.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Naval v Sporting Braga
Naval's only home win came a couple of weeks ago against my current bete noire (Academica) but although there's not much to go on, I'd be very surprised if Naval kept a clean sheet: it's been six home games since they kept one and as Sporting Braga have scored in 70% of their away games this season that looks like the way to go. Naval not to keep a clean sheet.
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Weekend Tips
Only catch up games in Belgium this week and we welcome back Croatia and Hungary from their winter breaks, although there's only one game worth looking at in Croatia. I looked at all of them and either Hajduk Split or Dinamo Zagreb are too short to be worth bothering with or there are no clear trends: sometimes that's the way it is.
As usual, teams in bold are possible wins, teams in BOLD CAPS are possible home bankers.
Friday
Hungary
6:00pm
FERENCVAROS v Kecskemeti
One of the weird aspects of this game is how unlikely a draw might be - Ferencvaros didn't draw at home during the first phase (12 since last home draw), Kecskemeti didn't draw away (18 since last away draw). The hosts are on a four game home winning streak in the league so we'll go with them; they need a morale boost at the moment due to experiencing financial difficulties again and I can tell you from personal experience that when the Florian Albert Stadium is full, it's an incredibly intimidating place for the opposition.
8:15pm
Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica
Academica are currently on a three game losing streak on the road while Vitoria are one of the more improved home teams this season. If the visitors lose it again like they did last Saturday then laying them could pay out. Trying to be professional here but Academica really annoyed me last weekend and I hope they lose ;-)
Saturday
Hungary
3pm
ZALAEGERSZEGI v Szombathely
The current top three won all six games against the current bottom three in the opening stage and although the current price may not look like it, it represents value.
Greece
3:15pm
Iraklis v Xanthi
This game should have less than 2.5 goals in it but the price is too low and in actual fact laying Xanthi is a better idea as Iraklis have only lost three times in the last 20 home games in the league. Last year was the first time Xanthi had won at Iraklis for over 15 years.
Croatia
4:00pm
Istra v Hrvatski
Hrvatski are on their way back to 2.HNL but Istra can still save themselves from relegation, even though the bottom four are going down this season. Oppose Hrvatski as a starting point as I'm not 100% sure that Istra have the goals to win this.
Portugal
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Vitoria Setubal
Straight Dutch (Pacos win/draw), although the draw might stand a better chance of paying out. Vitoria unlikely to keep a clean sheet and a scoring less than one goal away from home this season.
Portugal
8:15pm
Olhanense v Porto
Under 3.5 goals - arguably the most interesting game in Portugal this weekend as unbeaten Olhanense (unbeaten at home this season) entertain the runaway leaders. One of the reasons the hosts may be unbeaten is that this is only the second home game they've played against the big three (2-2 draw with Sporting Lisbon last time out) and although Olhanense's defence will be tested by Porto, this still looks like a low scoring game
Sunday
Greece
3:15pm
PAOK* v Kavala
Going back to 1994, PAOK have won all six games without scoring a goal; a home win is still possible, but I'd be a bit hesitant about backing a PAOK clean sheet as they've only kept two at home this season; Kavala have scored in eight of their eleven away games this season.
*Not a home banker, these are just the initials.
Hungary
3:30pm
Vasas Budapest v Fehervar
Over 2.5 goals - always worth remembering that NB1 is a very goal friendly league, despite it being the lowest ranked league I'm familiar with. Yes, lower than the Veikkausliiga.
Portugal
6:00pm
BEIRA MAR v Portimonense
Lay Portimonense - haven't won away all season, haven't won at Beira Mar in the last four visits. Be cautious if backing the hosts though as Portimonense are making everyone look better because they're so bad.
Greece
7:00pm
Panionios v Olympiakos
Originally came up as a low goals recommendation, but this is about as nailed on as an away win can get, especially as Olympiakos tend to take their shooting boots to what's basically a home game for them.
As usual, teams in bold are possible wins, teams in BOLD CAPS are possible home bankers.
Friday
Hungary
6:00pm
FERENCVAROS v Kecskemeti
One of the weird aspects of this game is how unlikely a draw might be - Ferencvaros didn't draw at home during the first phase (12 since last home draw), Kecskemeti didn't draw away (18 since last away draw). The hosts are on a four game home winning streak in the league so we'll go with them; they need a morale boost at the moment due to experiencing financial difficulties again and I can tell you from personal experience that when the Florian Albert Stadium is full, it's an incredibly intimidating place for the opposition.
8:15pm
Portugal
Vitoria Guimaraes v Academica
Academica are currently on a three game losing streak on the road while Vitoria are one of the more improved home teams this season. If the visitors lose it again like they did last Saturday then laying them could pay out. Trying to be professional here but Academica really annoyed me last weekend and I hope they lose ;-)
Saturday
Hungary
3pm
ZALAEGERSZEGI v Szombathely
The current top three won all six games against the current bottom three in the opening stage and although the current price may not look like it, it represents value.
Greece
3:15pm
Iraklis v Xanthi
This game should have less than 2.5 goals in it but the price is too low and in actual fact laying Xanthi is a better idea as Iraklis have only lost three times in the last 20 home games in the league. Last year was the first time Xanthi had won at Iraklis for over 15 years.
Croatia
4:00pm
Istra v Hrvatski
Hrvatski are on their way back to 2.HNL but Istra can still save themselves from relegation, even though the bottom four are going down this season. Oppose Hrvatski as a starting point as I'm not 100% sure that Istra have the goals to win this.
Portugal
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Vitoria Setubal
Straight Dutch (Pacos win/draw), although the draw might stand a better chance of paying out. Vitoria unlikely to keep a clean sheet and a scoring less than one goal away from home this season.
Portugal
8:15pm
Olhanense v Porto
Under 3.5 goals - arguably the most interesting game in Portugal this weekend as unbeaten Olhanense (unbeaten at home this season) entertain the runaway leaders. One of the reasons the hosts may be unbeaten is that this is only the second home game they've played against the big three (2-2 draw with Sporting Lisbon last time out) and although Olhanense's defence will be tested by Porto, this still looks like a low scoring game
Sunday
Greece
3:15pm
PAOK* v Kavala
Going back to 1994, PAOK have won all six games without scoring a goal; a home win is still possible, but I'd be a bit hesitant about backing a PAOK clean sheet as they've only kept two at home this season; Kavala have scored in eight of their eleven away games this season.
*Not a home banker, these are just the initials.
Hungary
3:30pm
Vasas Budapest v Fehervar
Over 2.5 goals - always worth remembering that NB1 is a very goal friendly league, despite it being the lowest ranked league I'm familiar with. Yes, lower than the Veikkausliiga.
Portugal
6:00pm
BEIRA MAR v Portimonense
Lay Portimonense - haven't won away all season, haven't won at Beira Mar in the last four visits. Be cautious if backing the hosts though as Portimonense are making everyone look better because they're so bad.
Greece
7:00pm
Panionios v Olympiakos
Originally came up as a low goals recommendation, but this is about as nailed on as an away win can get, especially as Olympiakos tend to take their shooting boots to what's basically a home game for them.
Sunday, 20 February 2011
Bang Bang Bang
That's the sound of my head bouncing off the wall - what a night.
Academica 0, Rio Ave 1
Two Academica players sent off plus a winning penalty - all of which happened in injury time.
AEK 1, Panionios 1
Konstantinos Mitroglou equalised for Panionios with about a minute left. AEK are now officially on my Avoid list.
Sporting Braga 1, Pacos de Ferreira 2
PdF took a two goal lead after 20 minutes, Braga got one back and couldn't force an equaliser after PdF had a man sent off with about a quarter of an hour left.
I'll tell you what, if someone had said 'write a worst case scenario' this morning it would have looked a lot like that.
Academica 0, Rio Ave 1
Two Academica players sent off plus a winning penalty - all of which happened in injury time.
AEK 1, Panionios 1
Konstantinos Mitroglou equalised for Panionios with about a minute left. AEK are now officially on my Avoid list.
Sporting Braga 1, Pacos de Ferreira 2
PdF took a two goal lead after 20 minutes, Braga got one back and couldn't force an equaliser after PdF had a man sent off with about a quarter of an hour left.
I'll tell you what, if someone had said 'write a worst case scenario' this morning it would have looked a lot like that.
Sunday's Free Tips
Sunday
Portugal
4:00pm
Academica v Rio Ave
Oppose Rio Ave - they're having problems scoring away from home this season and although Academica aren't exactly the best team in Portugal in 2010/11 they probably won't lose this game. Backing the draw might pay out.
Belgium
5:00pm - Watching Brief Only
GENT v Standard Liege
Careful here - barring any slip ups Gent should qualify for the Champions League qualification group, but Standard have to start making the most of their remaining opportunities to avoid finishing in the Europa League group. They're currently one point behind Mechelen, who lost to Genk on Saturday night and they need to avoid defeat in this game. Gent draw no bet might be the best play.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Panionios
Looks pretty nailed on to me, but there's no such thing as a dead cert. I think it's probably worth backing AEK without worrying about the draw.
Xanthi v Larissa
Xanthi have gone backwards, but they've not fallen away as badly as Larissa. Laying Larissa is the play.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Pacos de Ferreira
It was probably too much to expect that Braga would be able to maintain last season's form when faced with the distraction of the Champions League. They've only lost twice at the AXA Stadium this season: to Porto (no surprise) and to newly promoted Beira Mar (surprise). Pacos haven't done too badly away from home this season but have only won one of their last nine visits to Braga: Braga win.
I won't be paying attention to the big game in Portugal on Monday night, but I might have a nibble at Benfica.
Portugal
4:00pm
Academica v Rio Ave
Oppose Rio Ave - they're having problems scoring away from home this season and although Academica aren't exactly the best team in Portugal in 2010/11 they probably won't lose this game. Backing the draw might pay out.
Belgium
5:00pm - Watching Brief Only
GENT v Standard Liege
Careful here - barring any slip ups Gent should qualify for the Champions League qualification group, but Standard have to start making the most of their remaining opportunities to avoid finishing in the Europa League group. They're currently one point behind Mechelen, who lost to Genk on Saturday night and they need to avoid defeat in this game. Gent draw no bet might be the best play.
Greece
5:30pm
AEK v Panionios
Looks pretty nailed on to me, but there's no such thing as a dead cert. I think it's probably worth backing AEK without worrying about the draw.
Xanthi v Larissa
Xanthi have gone backwards, but they've not fallen away as badly as Larissa. Laying Larissa is the play.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Pacos de Ferreira
It was probably too much to expect that Braga would be able to maintain last season's form when faced with the distraction of the Champions League. They've only lost twice at the AXA Stadium this season: to Porto (no surprise) and to newly promoted Beira Mar (surprise). Pacos haven't done too badly away from home this season but have only won one of their last nine visits to Braga: Braga win.
I won't be paying attention to the big game in Portugal on Monday night, but I might have a nibble at Benfica.
Monday, 14 February 2011
Free Tips For Monday and Tuesday
Superb weekend, despite PAOK starting it off by losing to Panionios. Everything else came in, the only other wobble was expecting Standard Liege to beat Genk - although to be fair, I'd suggested laying 0-0, which worked.
I'm ignoring the Champions League this week because there are a few catch up games in England that might be worth a look, so this is the only scheduled post before Friday's weekend preview.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Beira Mar v Vitoria Setubal
Beira Mar's two home defeats this season have been against Benfica and Porto, otherwise they're fairly solid at home. Vitoria's away form has improved recently, but they're probably still worth opposing.
Tuesday
I tend not to analyse British games in much detail as I used to, but as usual the basic idea is that the home wins are in bold, home bankers are in bold caps etc. All kick offs at 7:45pm.
Championship
CARDIFF v Burnley
Watford v Preston - opposing Preston could be the best play as Watford have already lost at home to Scunthorpe this season and it's the time of the season when teams at the bottom of the table have to start scrapping their away out of the relegation spots.
League 1
Exeter v Swindon
Exeter haven't lost at home against teams in the current bottom four, so this recommendation is probably more about opposing Swindon rather than backing Exeter.
OLDHAM v Carlisle
Carlisle have lost all their games played against the current top six without scoring a goal. Nice price for Oldham.
League 2
Stevenage v Oxford
The visitors are unlikely to win, but you cannot completely rule out a draw either.
ROTHERHAM v Accrington Stanley
Very similar type of game to Oldham v Carlisle - Accrington Stanley have lost against all the sides they've played in the current top six.
I'm ignoring the Champions League this week because there are a few catch up games in England that might be worth a look, so this is the only scheduled post before Friday's weekend preview.
Monday
Portugal
8:15pm
Beira Mar v Vitoria Setubal
Beira Mar's two home defeats this season have been against Benfica and Porto, otherwise they're fairly solid at home. Vitoria's away form has improved recently, but they're probably still worth opposing.
Tuesday
I tend not to analyse British games in much detail as I used to, but as usual the basic idea is that the home wins are in bold, home bankers are in bold caps etc. All kick offs at 7:45pm.
Championship
CARDIFF v Burnley
Watford v Preston - opposing Preston could be the best play as Watford have already lost at home to Scunthorpe this season and it's the time of the season when teams at the bottom of the table have to start scrapping their away out of the relegation spots.
League 1
Exeter v Swindon
Exeter haven't lost at home against teams in the current bottom four, so this recommendation is probably more about opposing Swindon rather than backing Exeter.
OLDHAM v Carlisle
Carlisle have lost all their games played against the current top six without scoring a goal. Nice price for Oldham.
League 2
Stevenage v Oxford
The visitors are unlikely to win, but you cannot completely rule out a draw either.
ROTHERHAM v Accrington Stanley
Very similar type of game to Oldham v Carlisle - Accrington Stanley have lost against all the sides they've played in the current top six.
Thursday, 10 February 2011
Weekend Tips For Belgium, Greece & Portugal
I've somehow managed to overlook Portugal over the last couple of weeks, so I've put that right this week. Looks like an action packed Sunday - except in Greece, where the goal drought looks like continuing. I've not looked at the following games, but don't expect more than 2.5 goals between Aris and Olympiakos and Xanthi v Atromitos
Saturday
Greece
3:15pm
Panionios v PAOK
I was going to recommend under 2.5 goals originally, but if the price drops below 1.5 (1/2) then it's not worth taking. The alternative is to oppose Panionios - they've only won one of the last five games between these two at the Neas Smirnis Stadium and none of the bottom three clubs have beaten the top three at home this season.
Portugal
6:15pm
Nacional v Uniao de Leiria
Unclear what the result might be (I suspect a Nacional win), but there should be under 2.5 goals here.
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Charleroi
Lay 0-0. Lokeren's home games are producing an average of nearly three goals per game and Charleroi haven't kept a clean sheet all season. The hosts should win but are far too short to back.
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
Kerkyra v Panserraikos
The visitors are conceding an average of two goals a game away from home and as Kerkyra have won four of the last five league games between these two on Corfu then they're worth backing.
Iraklis v Asteras
Similar to the Panionios/PAOK game on Saturday - can't see many goals so there's no point in following the 2.5 market, so it could be worth opposing Asteras as well. The visitors have lost two of the last three league games at the Kafantzoglio and Iraklis haven't lost at home in the league since September. It's also worth having a nibble on Iraklis keeping a clean sheet.
3:00pm
Portugal
Rio Ave v Portimonense
Oppose Portimonense. The fact that they haven't won away all season is trappy, but that doesn't mean they'll do it here despite Rio Ave having only won two games at home this season. The hosts were unlucky to lose to Vitoria Guimaraes in their last home game.
5:00pm
Belgium
Standard Liege v Genk
Originally thought both teams would score, but this looks more like laying 0-0 than anything else. Although Genk's away defence is as good as Anderlecht's, Standard's home games have produced nearly 3.5 goals. If you don't fancy that, a Standard win or opposing Genk could be worth a small punt: Standard have won seven of the last nine league meetings between these two in Liege.
5:30pm
Greece
PANATHINAIKOS v AEK
Panathinaikos should win this easily - as the designated 'away' team at the Olympic Stadium this weekend AEK have only beaten Panathinaikos in the last 15 league meetings, although last three have been draws. Panathinaikos are great value for a change but that's probably more to do with the venue than anything else; I've also got an axe to grind with AEK this week, after they were turned over by Aris last weekend.
Saturday
Greece
3:15pm
Panionios v PAOK
I was going to recommend under 2.5 goals originally, but if the price drops below 1.5 (1/2) then it's not worth taking. The alternative is to oppose Panionios - they've only won one of the last five games between these two at the Neas Smirnis Stadium and none of the bottom three clubs have beaten the top three at home this season.
Portugal
6:15pm
Nacional v Uniao de Leiria
Unclear what the result might be (I suspect a Nacional win), but there should be under 2.5 goals here.
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Charleroi
Lay 0-0. Lokeren's home games are producing an average of nearly three goals per game and Charleroi haven't kept a clean sheet all season. The hosts should win but are far too short to back.
Sunday
Greece
1:00pm
Kerkyra v Panserraikos
The visitors are conceding an average of two goals a game away from home and as Kerkyra have won four of the last five league games between these two on Corfu then they're worth backing.
Iraklis v Asteras
Similar to the Panionios/PAOK game on Saturday - can't see many goals so there's no point in following the 2.5 market, so it could be worth opposing Asteras as well. The visitors have lost two of the last three league games at the Kafantzoglio and Iraklis haven't lost at home in the league since September. It's also worth having a nibble on Iraklis keeping a clean sheet.
3:00pm
Portugal
Rio Ave v Portimonense
Oppose Portimonense. The fact that they haven't won away all season is trappy, but that doesn't mean they'll do it here despite Rio Ave having only won two games at home this season. The hosts were unlucky to lose to Vitoria Guimaraes in their last home game.
5:00pm
Belgium
Standard Liege v Genk
Originally thought both teams would score, but this looks more like laying 0-0 than anything else. Although Genk's away defence is as good as Anderlecht's, Standard's home games have produced nearly 3.5 goals. If you don't fancy that, a Standard win or opposing Genk could be worth a small punt: Standard have won seven of the last nine league meetings between these two in Liege.
5:30pm
Greece
PANATHINAIKOS v AEK
Panathinaikos should win this easily - as the designated 'away' team at the Olympic Stadium this weekend AEK have only beaten Panathinaikos in the last 15 league meetings, although last three have been draws. Panathinaikos are great value for a change but that's probably more to do with the venue than anything else; I've also got an axe to grind with AEK this week, after they were turned over by Aris last weekend.
Friday, 14 January 2011
Weekend Football Betting Tips
Seems a bit odd that I've not posted for almost a week, but unfortunately I had to attend a funeral on Tuesday and I've been catching up since I got back.
From next week onwards, I'll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven't been released yet.
There are a couple of reasons for this:
1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn't have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon's website should give you a flavour of what to expect.
2. I'm involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense - especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.
Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.
Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.
3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.
Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest's 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point...just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.
Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don't win, so there's something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price - although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.
Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves' record at City isn't that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price - there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves' away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool. Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.
Spain
5:00pm
Villareal v Osasuna
Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements - Villareal haven't lost at home, Osasuna haven't won away and the hosts haven't actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)
Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander
Oppose Racing - there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven't drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.
France
8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre's price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.
PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals - Sporting haven't scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals - Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that's the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.
SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle
I wasn't expecting this at all when I started research this game - Sunderland's home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I'm really tempted to say do it at your own risk - although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn't have to motivate his side, Newcastle's record at Sunderland speaks for itself.
Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven't been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.
Portugal
4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they're up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won't tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren't as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux
Oppose Bordeaux. They've won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that's not saying much.
Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica
A rare away win recommendation, but there's something of a revenge element in this game - Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.
From next week onwards, I'll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven't been released yet.
There are a couple of reasons for this:
1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn't have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon's website should give you a flavour of what to expect.
2. I'm involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense - especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.
Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.
Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.
3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.
Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest's 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point...just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.
Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don't win, so there's something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price - although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.
Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves' record at City isn't that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price - there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves' away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool. Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.
Spain
5:00pm
Villareal v Osasuna
Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements - Villareal haven't lost at home, Osasuna haven't won away and the hosts haven't actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)
Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander
Oppose Racing - there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven't drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.
France
8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre's price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.
PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals - Sporting haven't scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals - Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that's the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.
SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle
I wasn't expecting this at all when I started research this game - Sunderland's home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I'm really tempted to say do it at your own risk - although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn't have to motivate his side, Newcastle's record at Sunderland speaks for itself.
Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven't been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.
Portugal
4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they're up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won't tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren't as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux
Oppose Bordeaux. They've won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that's not saying much.
Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica
A rare away win recommendation, but there's something of a revenge element in this game - Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.
Sunday, 9 January 2011
Sunday Soccer
4-3 yesterday, the biggest disappointments being Sunderland and Indianapolis. The Both Teams To Score bet in the Malaga v Athletic Bilbao game came in - a goal in the 3rd minute of injury time from Bilbao's Javi Martinez. Here are today's tips, the NFL Wild Cards will be up later.
Spain
4:00pm
Racing Santander v Sporting Gijon
Definitely worth a look. Racing have won six of the last eight league meetings between these two clubs in Santander and Sporting haven't won an away game in La Liga since last February (sixteen games).
Mallorca v Almeria
Mallorca have a really superb home defence - six clean sheets in nine games - while Almeria have conceded in six of their nine aways and have scored in less than 50% of those matches. The hosts have won three of the last four league games against Almeria at whatever the Mallorca stadium is called this week...under 2.5 goals could also be worth a look.
Portugal
8:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Benfica
Leaving the upset until last - Leiria have only lost once at home this season (to Sporting Lisbon) and haven't beaten Benfica at home in the league since February 2006, but they're available at such a big price that it would be daft not to at least consider them. Two of Benfica's three away defeats have come against top five clubs and Leiria are currently fourth. A safer alternative could be both teams to score.
Spain
4:00pm
Racing Santander v Sporting Gijon
Definitely worth a look. Racing have won six of the last eight league meetings between these two clubs in Santander and Sporting haven't won an away game in La Liga since last February (sixteen games).
Mallorca v Almeria
Mallorca have a really superb home defence - six clean sheets in nine games - while Almeria have conceded in six of their nine aways and have scored in less than 50% of those matches. The hosts have won three of the last four league games against Almeria at whatever the Mallorca stadium is called this week...under 2.5 goals could also be worth a look.
Portugal
8:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Benfica
Leaving the upset until last - Leiria have only lost once at home this season (to Sporting Lisbon) and haven't beaten Benfica at home in the league since February 2006, but they're available at such a big price that it would be daft not to at least consider them. Two of Benfica's three away defeats have come against top five clubs and Leiria are currently fourth. A safer alternative could be both teams to score.
Saturday, 8 January 2011
Saturday Tips
First thing to emphasise: I am on a losing streak - so it'll either get worse or (hopefully!) I can start turning the situation around. Here are today's tips, there are no FA Cup games amongst them, although I'm going to back Sunderland to win the competition but purely because I think they may be worth trading if they progress to the latter rounds.
The NFL Wild Card Tips will be posted before those games kick off.
Greece
3:15pm
Kavala v Larissa
Larissa have lost their last three away games and have only won once in their last five trips to Kavala. Opposing Larissa looks solid, but it's worth pointing out that the hosts haven't kept a home clean sheet this season and both teams to score could be worth a nibble.
Spain
5:00pm
Malaga v Athletic Bilbao
Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score
Greece
5:30pm
PANATHINAIKOS v Aris
Panathinaikos are only really any value in terms of their head to head record against Aris over the last few seasons - seven wins and two draws in the past ten league games versus Aris at the Olympic Stadium - so it may be worth keeping an eye on their price before kick off. Currently only one bookie is offering over 1.5 for the Panathinaikos win and because this could be a low scoring game there are trappy elements to this match.
Spain
7:00pm
Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Real Sociedad to score - they've scored in every single home game this season and Sevilla haven't kept a clean sheet away from home. Price could be a factor here.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Braga
The are a couple of reasons why Sporting Lisbon are priced so competitively: Braga have won the last two league games at the Alvalade and Sporting have only won two of their six home games in the Superliga this season. Even so, I think there's about a 70% chance that Braga won't win this evening, especially as they haven't won away all season, so opposing them would might be a good idea. Doesn't look as if there'll be many goals in this one - the earlier game in Greece between Panathinaikos and Aris looks similar to this one.
The NFL Wild Card Tips will be posted before those games kick off.
Greece
3:15pm
Kavala v Larissa
Larissa have lost their last three away games and have only won once in their last five trips to Kavala. Opposing Larissa looks solid, but it's worth pointing out that the hosts haven't kept a home clean sheet this season and both teams to score could be worth a nibble.
Spain
5:00pm
Malaga v Athletic Bilbao
Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score
Greece
5:30pm
PANATHINAIKOS v Aris
Panathinaikos are only really any value in terms of their head to head record against Aris over the last few seasons - seven wins and two draws in the past ten league games versus Aris at the Olympic Stadium - so it may be worth keeping an eye on their price before kick off. Currently only one bookie is offering over 1.5 for the Panathinaikos win and because this could be a low scoring game there are trappy elements to this match.
Spain
7:00pm
Real Sociedad v Sevilla
Real Sociedad to score - they've scored in every single home game this season and Sevilla haven't kept a clean sheet away from home. Price could be a factor here.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Braga
The are a couple of reasons why Sporting Lisbon are priced so competitively: Braga have won the last two league games at the Alvalade and Sporting have only won two of their six home games in the Superliga this season. Even so, I think there's about a 70% chance that Braga won't win this evening, especially as they haven't won away all season, so opposing them would might be a good idea. Doesn't look as if there'll be many goals in this one - the earlier game in Greece between Panathinaikos and Aris looks similar to this one.
Sunday, 19 December 2010
Free Tips For Sunday 19th December
After a good start to the weekend, things didn’t exactly go to plan yesterday – poor finishing by Bolton and Blackburn, good finishing by Rio Ave and a late goal from Sporting Gijon meant that I took a hit, which hasn’t helped by the games at Watford and Lokeren being postponed. Still running at a profit for December though, even if it's not as healthy as it was.
Here are today’s tips, let’s see what happens.
Spain
4:00pm
Osasuna v Real Zaragoza
Oppose Zaragoza, under 2.5 goals
Greece
5:30pm
Larisa v Olympiakos
Under 2.5 goals - big shock in Greece yesterday, Olympiacos Volos won at Panathinaikos, which was Pana's first home defeat this season.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Lyon
The numbers suggest that Marseille could be ahead at half time but that Lyon could come back to earn a pont. Both teams to score looks as if it could take a lot of the guesswork out of the situation.
Portugal
8:15pm
Pacos de Ferriera v FC Porto
Under 2.5 goals - Porto have kept four clean sheets their six away games this season, notably at Rio Ave and Academica, who are about the same standard as Pacos. The visitors have not scored more than two goals in a league game since the end of last season.
Here are today’s tips, let’s see what happens.
Spain
4:00pm
Osasuna v Real Zaragoza
Oppose Zaragoza, under 2.5 goals
Greece
5:30pm
Larisa v Olympiakos
Under 2.5 goals - big shock in Greece yesterday, Olympiacos Volos won at Panathinaikos, which was Pana's first home defeat this season.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Lyon
The numbers suggest that Marseille could be ahead at half time but that Lyon could come back to earn a pont. Both teams to score looks as if it could take a lot of the guesswork out of the situation.
Portugal
8:15pm
Pacos de Ferriera v FC Porto
Under 2.5 goals - Porto have kept four clean sheets their six away games this season, notably at Rio Ave and Academica, who are about the same standard as Pacos. The visitors have not scored more than two goals in a league game since the end of last season.
Friday, 17 December 2010
Free Tips For Friday 17th and Saturday 18th December
Here are my tips for Friday and Saturday, it's looking as if the weather might have an impact again in the UK and Belgium so it's worth checking out if the games are still on. By far the best way of doing this is by looking at the official club websites as sometimes the odds comparison sites are a bit behind.
As usual, teams in bold represent the best chance of a straight win, teams in bold caps are what I consider to be home bankers.
FRIDAY
Championship
7:45pm
DONCASTER v Middlesbrough
Boro's dreadful away record is offset here by their recent successes in South Yorkshire: they've won the last three league meetings but have yet to win on the road against any team currently above them.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Academica
SATURDAY
Premiership
12:45pm
Sunderland v Bolton
Draw, under 2.5
0-0 or 1-1 correct score could be worth backing
3:00pm
Blackburn v West Ham
Blackburn should at least score, but Sam Allardyce's sacking casts something of a shadow over the proceedings.
Championship
3:00pm
Hull v Bristol City
Under 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Forest have won six of the last ten head to head in the Midlands and are unbeaten in home games against teams below them - Palace have lost six of eight away games against teams above them.
Watford v Preston postponed
Over 2.5 goals
Greece
3:15
Panionios v Asteras Tripolis
Under 2.5 goals - although caution here as the last three league games in the Athenian suburb of Nea Smyri have been decisively over 2.5 (average goals per game of four)...may not be value, so check the prices before parting with your cash.
Portugal
5:00pm
Benfica v Rio Ave
Benfica are another team where there's never any value in backing them at home, so a clean sheet for the Eagles might be worth a look. After a shock 1-2 home defeat by Academica on the opening day, they've kept six in a row. Rio Ave have scored in half of their away games but four of those five goals came against inferior opposition and they were shut out when they travelled to Sporting Lisbon earlier in October; Benfica have stopped them scoring in three of their last five league visits.
Spain
5pm
Deportivo La Coruna v Sporting Gijon
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Cercle Bruges
Lokeren are easily the most improved team at home in the Jupiler League this season, although leaders Genk aren't far behind. Cercle are playing at about the same level as last season and lost this game 5-3 last season. POSTPONED
Zulte-Waregem v Westerlo
Over 2.5 goals
Zulte-Waregem have scored in nine of their ten home games this season, Westerlo in seven of their nine aways. Both teams to score is the cheaper alternative.
France
8:00pm
St Etienne v Arles
Oppose Arles - although St Etienne have only lost once at home this season, they haven't won at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in the league since mid September. Arles have drawn at Brest and Monaco and both those sides have drawn have the majority of their home games - just like St. Etienne. The hosts have scored in all of their home games in Ligue 1 this season.
Toulouse v Lorient
Under 2.5 goals
As usual, teams in bold represent the best chance of a straight win, teams in bold caps are what I consider to be home bankers.
FRIDAY
Championship
7:45pm
DONCASTER v Middlesbrough
Boro's dreadful away record is offset here by their recent successes in South Yorkshire: they've won the last three league meetings but have yet to win on the road against any team currently above them.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Academica
SATURDAY
Premiership
12:45pm
Sunderland v Bolton
Draw, under 2.5
0-0 or 1-1 correct score could be worth backing
3:00pm
Blackburn v West Ham
Blackburn should at least score, but Sam Allardyce's sacking casts something of a shadow over the proceedings.
Championship
3:00pm
Hull v Bristol City
Under 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Forest have won six of the last ten head to head in the Midlands and are unbeaten in home games against teams below them - Palace have lost six of eight away games against teams above them.
Watford v Preston postponed
Over 2.5 goals
Greece
3:15
Panionios v Asteras Tripolis
Under 2.5 goals - although caution here as the last three league games in the Athenian suburb of Nea Smyri have been decisively over 2.5 (average goals per game of four)...may not be value, so check the prices before parting with your cash.
Portugal
5:00pm
Benfica v Rio Ave
Benfica are another team where there's never any value in backing them at home, so a clean sheet for the Eagles might be worth a look. After a shock 1-2 home defeat by Academica on the opening day, they've kept six in a row. Rio Ave have scored in half of their away games but four of those five goals came against inferior opposition and they were shut out when they travelled to Sporting Lisbon earlier in October; Benfica have stopped them scoring in three of their last five league visits.
Spain
5pm
Deportivo La Coruna v Sporting Gijon
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Cercle Bruges
Lokeren are easily the most improved team at home in the Jupiler League this season, although leaders Genk aren't far behind. Cercle are playing at about the same level as last season and lost this game 5-3 last season. POSTPONED
Zulte-Waregem v Westerlo
Over 2.5 goals
Zulte-Waregem have scored in nine of their ten home games this season, Westerlo in seven of their nine aways. Both teams to score is the cheaper alternative.
France
8:00pm
St Etienne v Arles
Oppose Arles - although St Etienne have only lost once at home this season, they haven't won at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in the league since mid September. Arles have drawn at Brest and Monaco and both those sides have drawn have the majority of their home games - just like St. Etienne. The hosts have scored in all of their home games in Ligue 1 this season.
Toulouse v Lorient
Under 2.5 goals
Friday, 3 December 2010
Tips For December 4th
Main one is don't go out unless you have to!
Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.
Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves
Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals
Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.
Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.
UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.
Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.
I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.
The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.
I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.
Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.
Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves
Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals
Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.
Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.
UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.
Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.
I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.
The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.
I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.
Sunday, 28 November 2010
Sunday 28th November
Better performance on Saturday, 61% strike rate with a clean sweep on the recommendations in Croatia - next week is the last round of games there before the winter break.
Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.
Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs
Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.
Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw
Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw
Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.
Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!
Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.
Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs
Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.
Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw
Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw
Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.
Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!
Saturday, 27 November 2010
Tips For Saturday 27th November
Well, yesterday can be described in one word: ouch. Still, back on the horse and no loss chasing...here are Saturday's tips, teams in bold are worth a straight win bet, Hajduk Split are today's home banker.
CROATIA
3:00pm
HAJDUK SPLIT v Osijek
Cibalia v Sibenik
Karlovac v Zadar
Slaven v Inter Zapresic back draw at half time and under 2.5 goals for the game
HUNGARY
3:00pm
Kecskemeti v MTK - back draw at half time
PORTUGAL
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Olhanense - back draw
5:00pm
Maritimo v Vitoria Guimaraes - back draw at half time
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v FC Porto under 2.5 goals
SPAIN
5:00pm
Real Zaragoza v Villareal over 2.5 goals
9:00pm
Oppose Espanyol in both halves against Atletico Madrid
BELGIUM
7:00pm
Cercle Bruges v Germinal Beerschot
Right, I'm off to watch the rugby in Bath. Happy hunting!
CROATIA
3:00pm
HAJDUK SPLIT v Osijek
Cibalia v Sibenik
Karlovac v Zadar
Slaven v Inter Zapresic back draw at half time and under 2.5 goals for the game
HUNGARY
3:00pm
Kecskemeti v MTK - back draw at half time
PORTUGAL
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Olhanense - back draw
5:00pm
Maritimo v Vitoria Guimaraes - back draw at half time
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v FC Porto under 2.5 goals
SPAIN
5:00pm
Real Zaragoza v Villareal over 2.5 goals
9:00pm
Oppose Espanyol in both halves against Atletico Madrid
BELGIUM
7:00pm
Cercle Bruges v Germinal Beerschot
Right, I'm off to watch the rugby in Bath. Happy hunting!
Friday, 26 November 2010
26th November
Teams in bold are worth a straight win, if you only fancy one selection the team in bold caps is the one to follow.
Belgium
7:30
Genk v Gent: oppose Gent in both halves, back over 2.5 goals
Championship
7:45
SWANSEA v Portsmouth: oppose Portsmouth, back under 2.5 goals
Portugal
8:15
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: the hosts are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but have drawn more games than they've won and my numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw...so full time draw it is then.
Watching Brief:
Hungary
4:00
Lombard Papa v Debrecen
The pricing is interesting here - I think it's because reigning champions Debrecen have a reasonably good record at Papa, the hosts were beaten 5-1 at home by Ferencvaros last Saturday and Papa's other home defeat came against Fehervar/Videoton, so it's reasonable to assume Lombard Papa's poor record against top four sides is why their price is so large.
However there's no disguising Debrecen's poor away record this season - two draws, six defeats and a minus ten goal difference isn't anything to write home about and the games they lost came against sides that are currently lower than Papa, so this looks like a game that could literally go either way.
I may have a 'day off' tomorrow...doing some pre-Xmas socialising ;-)
Belgium
7:30
Genk v Gent: oppose Gent in both halves, back over 2.5 goals
Championship
7:45
SWANSEA v Portsmouth: oppose Portsmouth, back under 2.5 goals
Portugal
8:15
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: the hosts are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but have drawn more games than they've won and my numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw...so full time draw it is then.
Watching Brief:
Hungary
4:00
Lombard Papa v Debrecen
The pricing is interesting here - I think it's because reigning champions Debrecen have a reasonably good record at Papa, the hosts were beaten 5-1 at home by Ferencvaros last Saturday and Papa's other home defeat came against Fehervar/Videoton, so it's reasonable to assume Lombard Papa's poor record against top four sides is why their price is so large.
However there's no disguising Debrecen's poor away record this season - two draws, six defeats and a minus ten goal difference isn't anything to write home about and the games they lost came against sides that are currently lower than Papa, so this looks like a game that could literally go either way.
I may have a 'day off' tomorrow...doing some pre-Xmas socialising ;-)
Friday, 19 November 2010
Free Tips For Friday 19th November
A couple of games worth following today.
Croatia, 3:00pm GMT
Inter Zapresic v Karlovac: back the draw at half time and Inter to go on to win the game. Two separate bets, not HT/FT.
Portugal, 8:15pm GMT
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: oppose Academica, backing the draw also looks like a good idea.
Update: Vitoria Setubal v Academica is next week...doh! Anyway, the advice still stands - it's a cup weekend in Portugal.
Croatia, 3:00pm GMT
Inter Zapresic v Karlovac: back the draw at half time and Inter to go on to win the game. Two separate bets, not HT/FT.
Portugal, 8:15pm GMT
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: oppose Academica, backing the draw also looks like a good idea.
Update: Vitoria Setubal v Academica is next week...doh! Anyway, the advice still stands - it's a cup weekend in Portugal.
Wednesday, 13 October 2010
Trendspotting In Europe
With ten games gone in quite a few competitions across Europe, it's worth taking a look at how things are panning out in some of them in order to see if there any any trends developing that might be worth exploiting. To keep my workload down, in the long term I might limit myself to countries that where I've had holidays.
Belgium:
Massive improvement from unbeaten leaders Genk has given them a five point lead over Anderlecht. At the bottom AS Eupen have lost nine of their first ten games and should probably be opposed each time they play: their next game is at home to St. Truiden on 16th October.
Genk have won the title before, but the winner of the 2010/11 edition of the competition will still probably be either Anderlecht or Club Brugge, although the playoff format adopted in Belgium sometimes throws up unexpected winners. In that case, Gent can't be totally ruled out either.
Holiday report: went to Bruges a few years ago, not really a great deal to do apart from sample the fantastic range of beer and chocolate and go on boat trips, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The battlefield tour in and around Ypres puts a lot of things into perspective.
Genk have won the title before, but the winner of the 2010/11 edition of the competition will still probably be either Anderlecht or Club Brugge, although the playoff format adopted in Belgium sometimes throws up unexpected winners. In that case, Gent can't be totally ruled out either.
Holiday report: went to Bruges a few years ago, not really a great deal to do apart from sample the fantastic range of beer and chocolate and go on boat trips, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The battlefield tour in and around Ypres puts a lot of things into perspective.
Croatia:
Dinamo Zagreb, Hajduk Split and newly promoted RNK Split have all started well, at the bottom Hrvatski Dragovoljac and Istra 1961 look vulnerable already: Hrvatski were promoted last season and might not be up to the challenge. This competition has been dominated by Dinamo Zagreb (ten wins since 1992 and five consecutive wins) then if you can still get a decent price for them it's worth taking. Hajduk Split (the only club from outside Zagreb to win the title since the war finished) are also contenders. Bit of a health warning with Croatian football though: there have been some dodgy dealings in the past although a series of high profile stings may have put paid to that.
Holiday report: stayed on the Adriatic coast north of Split for a fortnight, not many Brits there but I was told how well I spoke English(!) which is spoken pretty widely, mainly because people from all over Europe go there. The locals seem to worship Italians and if you're a fan of meat and potatoes you can't go wrong with the food; beer and wine is good quality and cheap.
There are a number of European leagues that are currently featuring over 3.5 goals per game. For the sake of brevity, I'll just list the major ones but I'll be coming back to Portugal and Greece in the following weeks:
Swiss Super League (ten games gone, some teams have played eleven)
No real surprise here as this competition and the Austrian Bundesliga normally feature tons of goals. Of the ten teams in the competition, only Young Boys are currently averaging less than 2.5 per game. Leaders Luzern are averaging exactly four goals per game at the moment: their next game is 22nd October at Neuchatel Xamax which looks as if it should be over 3.5 but more of that game nearer the time.
Bundesliga 1 (seven games gone)
Surprisingly, Bayern Munich are having problems hitting the net.
Dutch Eredivisie (eight games gone)
Only two teams under 2.5 goals per game
If you don't want to see goals, try the following competitions:
Polish Extraklasa (eight games in) - Arka Gdynia are the main culprits
Portuguese Super League (seven games) - very goal shy competition
Greece 1 (five games) - particularly Aris and Larissa
Serbia Super Liga (seven games) - an incredible 1.56 GPG at the moment!
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