Four games to start the weekend with, one each from Croatia and England and two from Hungary. All kick offs GMT.
Friday
4:00pm
Croatia
Inter Zapresic v Istra 1961
The hosts are currently just about value for the win, but a home win/draw dutch should be fine. It's unlikely that Istra 1961 will keep a clean sheet - they've only done that once in ten away games this season.
Update: Mirko Kramaric scored for Inter after four minutes, game over after 26 minutes. Final score: Inter 3, Istra 1.
6:00pm
Hungary
FEHERVAR v Debrecen
There are a couple of subtle traps in this game - Debrecen haven't won away from home yet this season and the away side hasn't won in games between the top four in NB1 in 2010/2011. The visitors also have a decent record at Fehervar/Videoton (only lost one of the last five) but their away form this season hs been absolutely appalling - only Szombathely and Szolnoki MAV have worse records.
However...the last time the hosts won three consecutive home games in NB1 they lost the fourth, so prepare yourselves for a shock: dutch the home win/draw but be prepared for a surprise away win. Risk management appears to be the key here.
Update: Laszlo Lencse goal put Fehervar/Videoton ahead just after the hour, Adamo Koulibaly equalised about five minutes later.
Full time: Fehervar 2, Debrecen 1.
7:45pm
nPower League 2
Chesterfield v Rotherham United
This looks like an absolute bargain at the price it was available for on Wednesday morning - Rotherham haven't won at any of the other clubs in the current top seven and although this marks the start of a potentially tricky looking run in for Chesterfield, the Spirerites should win this.
Update: Chesterfield 5, Rotherham 0.
Saturday
2:00pm
Hungary
Lomabard Papa v Kaposvari Rakoczi
Over 2.5 goals, it's also possible that both teams might score but there seems to have been a decline in goals in NB1 since the restart after the winter break.
3:00pm
Hungary
PAKSI SE v Szombathely
Not quite as nailed on as it could be, because the visitors haven't won away this season (last away win 12 games ago) and although Paks are currently on a five game undefeated streak at home they're not exactly dominant. Guess what...a home win/draw dutch.
nPower Championship
Ipswich v Scunthorpe
Will Scunthorpe go the whole season without an away draw? There are only five opportunities to go before the end of the season and although Ipswich have won all six league games between these two since their first meeting at Portman Road in 1958, both teams are awful at the moment. Ipswich have lost their last three home games, Scunthorpe have lost seven consecutive away games - have a nibble on a draw, combined with 0-0 as the correct score.
Norwegian Tippeligaen
(The summer's here...word of warning: for the first couple of weeks, I'm going to be heavily relying on the numbers from the 2010 competition)
Viking v Valerenga
Over 2.5 definitely from a head to head perspective is highly likely, but I'll keep it simple to start with and recommend over 1.5 goals. Key stat: 60% of Viking's home games last season featured over 3.5 goals, as did 33% of Valerenga's away games.
4:00pm
Croatia
VARAZDIN v Slaven Koprivnica
Slaven have drawn their last four away games and Varazdin haven't lost at home all season: head to head shows that although the hosts have only lost one in the last ten at home, they've drawn four of those games. It's got draw written all over it...dutch home and draw.
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- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
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Showing posts with label Championship. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Championship. Show all posts
Friday, 18 March 2011
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Free Tips For Tuesday 15th March
Not a bad weekend: there were only two expensive mistakes (Vasas beat Ujpest 1-0 with ten men and suddenly - at the end of the season - Greek sides remembered how to score goals) but I think the word 'satisfactory' is appropriate here, especially as Nick Watney did the business in the golf.
Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.
nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.
nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.
nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.
The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.
It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)
1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew
Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.
nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.
nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.
nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.
The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.
It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)
1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew
Friday, 11 March 2011
Free Tips For Friday and Saturday
FRIDAY
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.
Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.
4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.
Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.
Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:
Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker
Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.
Croatia
2:00pm
Lokomotiva v Inter Zapresic
Under 3.5 goals
UPDATE: Inter won 4-2...I traded out at 2-1 and there were three goals in injury time! That's the first time Inter have been involved in an away game with more than 3.5 goals this season.
Saturday
Croatia
2:00pm
Osijek v Hrvatski
Although the visitors have only won one of the last ten meetings in north eastern Croatia and Osijek have only lost once at home this season, I think some caution is needed here as a draw is possible as the hosts are this season's draw specialists. Lay Hrvatski or dutch Osijek/draw.
Update: leave it alone. Goal expectancy is about 1.93, so under 3.5 goals might work, but at current prices dutching is a waste of time.
Result: 0-0 draw.
4pm
KARLOVAC* v Varazdin
Only possible drawback is the lack of head to head: although the hosts lost their last home game, they normally bounce back after home setbacks and their current price is very competitive. Under 3.5 goals looks probable although trading out of it could be a problem; a Karlovac clean sheet could be worth a look.
Result: Karlovac 1, Varazdin 0Greece
5:30
Iraklis v Panathinaikos
Under 2.5 or under 3.5 goals
It looks as if Olympiakos' win over Panathinaikos a couple of weeks ago settled the Hellenic League championship, especially after Panathinaikos lost at Larisa last weekend. There's almost nothing to play for here, although Iraklis stand an outside chance of reaching the Champions League playoff stage. Statistically quite similar to the Karlovac/Varazdin game above, the only difference being that Panathinaikos could win to nil.
Result: Iraklis 1, Panathinaikos 3 - Panathinaikos are clearly angry.
Croatia
7:10pm
Hajduk Split v NK Split
Couple of traps here: this is a derby, there's no head to head form between them at the Poljud Stadium and Hajduk Split haven't lost in their last 20 home league games. Dutching Hajduk Split/draw or laying NK Split might be the way forward here.
Additionally, the 'rough and ready' method came up with these games in the nPower Championship, so using lower stakes and either dutching the home win/draw or laying the away team should be used here. All kick offs at 3:00pm:
Burnley v Millwall (under 3.5 goals also looks good)
Nottingham Forest v Doncaster Rovers
Portsmouth v Middlesbrough
QPR* v Crystal Palace
Watford v Sheffield United
*Possible home banker
Rough and ready is what it is. QPR and Watford came through, Burnley were soundly beaten by Millwall (but the Lions kept it under 3.5) and Forest obviously don't want to be promoted.
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Midweek nPower Championship
Right, back to work after Sunday evening's ridiculous events. I've had to cancel something I was supposed to be doing today, so I can take a more in depth look at tonight's Championship games.
First of all, ignore the following markets:
Nottingham Forest, Norwich and Watford win markets. Forest's price is value but is still lower than 1.5 so it's automatically discounted and Watford's price seems to be aimed specifically at casual punters and/or Hornets fans.
Here are the ones I'm looking at:
Coventry v Swansea -
Under 3.5 goals, although it may be worth having a nibble at both teams to score - only one league game at the Ricoh this season has been over 3.5 goals (2-3 v Leeds in November) whereas Swansea have been involved in five. Last three head to head games at Coventry have been under 3.5
Nottingham Forest v Preston North End
Under 3.5 goals - unlikely Forest's unbeaten home record will go tonight, but I'm leaving them alone until it does.
Portsmouth v Crystal Palace
I was going to look at the over/under numbers to start with with but I think there could be a few goals at Fratton Park tonight - eight of the last ten league meetings there have been over 3.5. Laying Palace to keep a clean sheet and the game generally seems to be the way forward.
Reading v Millwall
Under 3.5 goals, laying 0-0/no goalscorer isn't a bad idea either.
Scunthorpe v Sheffield United
Under 3.5 goals. Games between the current bottom six have been marginally under 2.5 goals but these two have some specific form patterns in that context. Sheffield United have been particularly poor away from home against the other teams in the current bottom six, having lost the three games they've played so far without scoring; two of those games finished 1-0.
Scunthorpe's home record is nothing to write home about either, but two of the three games they've played against bottom six sides at Glanford Park have been under.
A warning comes with this one: three of the last five games between these two at Scunthorpe have been over 2.5 so making the conservative decision to back under 3.5 comes into play.
Totally unscientific, but I'm going to back a 2-1 Leeds win over Barnsley aswell.
First of all, ignore the following markets:
Nottingham Forest, Norwich and Watford win markets. Forest's price is value but is still lower than 1.5 so it's automatically discounted and Watford's price seems to be aimed specifically at casual punters and/or Hornets fans.
Here are the ones I'm looking at:
Coventry v Swansea -
Under 3.5 goals, although it may be worth having a nibble at both teams to score - only one league game at the Ricoh this season has been over 3.5 goals (2-3 v Leeds in November) whereas Swansea have been involved in five. Last three head to head games at Coventry have been under 3.5
Nottingham Forest v Preston North End
Under 3.5 goals - unlikely Forest's unbeaten home record will go tonight, but I'm leaving them alone until it does.
Portsmouth v Crystal Palace
I was going to look at the over/under numbers to start with with but I think there could be a few goals at Fratton Park tonight - eight of the last ten league meetings there have been over 3.5. Laying Palace to keep a clean sheet and the game generally seems to be the way forward.
Reading v Millwall
Under 3.5 goals, laying 0-0/no goalscorer isn't a bad idea either.
Scunthorpe v Sheffield United
Under 3.5 goals. Games between the current bottom six have been marginally under 2.5 goals but these two have some specific form patterns in that context. Sheffield United have been particularly poor away from home against the other teams in the current bottom six, having lost the three games they've played so far without scoring; two of those games finished 1-0.
Scunthorpe's home record is nothing to write home about either, but two of the three games they've played against bottom six sides at Glanford Park have been under.
A warning comes with this one: three of the last five games between these two at Scunthorpe have been over 2.5 so making the conservative decision to back under 3.5 comes into play.
Totally unscientific, but I'm going to back a 2-1 Leeds win over Barnsley aswell.
Wednesday, 26 January 2011
Forest Win, Doncaster Don't
Well, I've got to say that both last night's results in the nPower Championship are typical Bristol City. It didn't come as too much of a shock that City lost at Nottingham Forest, but I should have guessed that our latest 'export' would score both of the goals as Barnsley beat Doncaster at the Keepmoat Stadium for the third time in a row. City travel to Barnsley on April 9th - I'll take a look at Haynes' anytime goalscorer odds at that point.
There'll be a weekend post up on Friday afternoon featuring games from Belgium and Greece (it's a cup weekend in Portugal) and I'm currently in the middle of writing a Superbowl preview as well as drafting some thoughts on the forthcoming MLB season, which starts on March 31st. I've already identified a couple of possible World Series contenders that are currently available at big prices, but more about them later.
Update: I've got a rare lay tip today - Marching Song in the 1:45 at Huntingdon.
There'll be a weekend post up on Friday afternoon featuring games from Belgium and Greece (it's a cup weekend in Portugal) and I'm currently in the middle of writing a Superbowl preview as well as drafting some thoughts on the forthcoming MLB season, which starts on March 31st. I've already identified a couple of possible World Series contenders that are currently available at big prices, but more about them later.
Update: I've got a rare lay tip today - Marching Song in the 1:45 at Huntingdon.
Monday, 24 January 2011
Tuesday's Free Tips, nPower Championship Edition
Three games in the nPower Championship tomorrow, two are worth a look but neither of them are as clear cut as they might appear. Home wins in bold, banker is in caps...but make sure you read the Forest preview!
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v Bristol City
Forest's home winning streak in the league is now ridiculous (32 regular season home games without defeat stretching back to September 2009) and although City haven't won at the City Ground since November 1955, they've beaten Swansea and drawn with QPR away from home this season.
I'm not going to go as far as predicting an upset, but City could nick a point and Forest's win price is far too short. Home team not to keep a clean sheet might also be worth a nibble, but it might be profitable to start opposing Forest at home over the next few weeks - they can't go undefeated forever.
Recommendation: oppose City, but don't go overboard on a Forest win.
Doncaster Rovers v Barnsley
Doncaster are one of the most improved teams in the Championship this season which could be a problem for Barnsley, who are lucky that their home form is shoring them up at the moment - away from Oakwell they're playing like a team that should be in the bottom six. Having said that...Barnsley have won their last two league visits to the Keepmoat Stadium and Donny have only won half of the last ten league games between them with home advantage. Looking at this game purely from the point of view of Yorkshire derbies in the Championship so far, home teams have won four of the six games so far - the others were drawn.
Recommendation: oppose Barnsley as they've only got about 20% chance of winning this. Don't rule out a draw though.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v Bristol City
Forest's home winning streak in the league is now ridiculous (32 regular season home games without defeat stretching back to September 2009) and although City haven't won at the City Ground since November 1955, they've beaten Swansea and drawn with QPR away from home this season.
I'm not going to go as far as predicting an upset, but City could nick a point and Forest's win price is far too short. Home team not to keep a clean sheet might also be worth a nibble, but it might be profitable to start opposing Forest at home over the next few weeks - they can't go undefeated forever.
Recommendation: oppose City, but don't go overboard on a Forest win.
Doncaster Rovers v Barnsley
Doncaster are one of the most improved teams in the Championship this season which could be a problem for Barnsley, who are lucky that their home form is shoring them up at the moment - away from Oakwell they're playing like a team that should be in the bottom six. Having said that...Barnsley have won their last two league visits to the Keepmoat Stadium and Donny have only won half of the last ten league games between them with home advantage. Looking at this game purely from the point of view of Yorkshire derbies in the Championship so far, home teams have won four of the six games so far - the others were drawn.
Recommendation: oppose Barnsley as they've only got about 20% chance of winning this. Don't rule out a draw though.
Friday, 14 January 2011
Weekend Football Betting Tips
Seems a bit odd that I've not posted for almost a week, but unfortunately I had to attend a funeral on Tuesday and I've been catching up since I got back.
From next week onwards, I'll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven't been released yet.
There are a couple of reasons for this:
1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn't have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon's website should give you a flavour of what to expect.
2. I'm involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense - especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.
Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.
Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.
3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.
Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest's 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point...just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.
Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don't win, so there's something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price - although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.
Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves' record at City isn't that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price - there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves' away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool. Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.
Spain
5:00pm
Villareal v Osasuna
Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements - Villareal haven't lost at home, Osasuna haven't won away and the hosts haven't actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)
Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander
Oppose Racing - there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven't drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.
France
8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre's price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.
PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals - Sporting haven't scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals - Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that's the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.
SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle
I wasn't expecting this at all when I started research this game - Sunderland's home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I'm really tempted to say do it at your own risk - although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn't have to motivate his side, Newcastle's record at Sunderland speaks for itself.
Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven't been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.
Portugal
4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they're up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won't tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren't as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux
Oppose Bordeaux. They've won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that's not saying much.
Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica
A rare away win recommendation, but there's something of a revenge element in this game - Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.
From next week onwards, I'll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven't been released yet.
There are a couple of reasons for this:
1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn't have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon's website should give you a flavour of what to expect.
2. I'm involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense - especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.
Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.
Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.
3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.
Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest's 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point...just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.
Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don't win, so there's something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price - although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.
Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves' record at City isn't that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price - there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves' away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool. Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.
Spain
5:00pm
Villareal v Osasuna
Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements - Villareal haven't lost at home, Osasuna haven't won away and the hosts haven't actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)
Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander
Oppose Racing - there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven't drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.
France
8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre's price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.
PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.
Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals - Sporting haven't scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals - Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that's the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.
SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle
I wasn't expecting this at all when I started research this game - Sunderland's home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I'm really tempted to say do it at your own risk - although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn't have to motivate his side, Newcastle's record at Sunderland speaks for itself.
Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven't been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.
Portugal
4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they're up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won't tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren't as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.
France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux
Oppose Bordeaux. They've won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that's not saying much.
Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica
A rare away win recommendation, but there's something of a revenge element in this game - Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
Tuesday 4th January
I'll start with the results round up - I only missed on one yesterday (Barnsley v Coventry) as I decided not to touch Atletico Madrid's game because the price had shortened too much before kick off. As a basic rule of thumb I won't back a selection if the returns are going to be less than half of the stake.
I traded out of my position on Reading v Burnley for a small profit, but the situation I was most pleased with on Monday was the goals bet on the Real Zaragoza/Real Sociedad game. Zaragoza's Braulio Nobrega scored right at the end of the game to give the hosts a 2-1 win!
There weren't as many opportunities in today's games as I thought - statistically speaking Manchester United look as if they should beat Stoke, but it might be more profitable to look at over 2.5 goals. Three of the last five league games at Old Trafford have been overs and Stoke have failed to score in eight of their last ten visits, so it looks as if United might have to do all the work. However, although Stoke have been beaten away from home without scoring on three occasions this season, they've yet to concede three or more goals in any of their games in the Premiership.
On the other hand...there might be under 2.5 goals in every game in the Greek Super League over the next couple of days. The likelihood of that happening is remote, so I'm tentatively recommending under 2.5 in the game between Aris Salonica and Kavala - but once again, this depends on the best prices before kickoff (5:30pm GMT). If the price shortens to under 1.5 it's not worth taking.
I traded out of my position on Reading v Burnley for a small profit, but the situation I was most pleased with on Monday was the goals bet on the Real Zaragoza/Real Sociedad game. Zaragoza's Braulio Nobrega scored right at the end of the game to give the hosts a 2-1 win!
There weren't as many opportunities in today's games as I thought - statistically speaking Manchester United look as if they should beat Stoke, but it might be more profitable to look at over 2.5 goals. Three of the last five league games at Old Trafford have been overs and Stoke have failed to score in eight of their last ten visits, so it looks as if United might have to do all the work. However, although Stoke have been beaten away from home without scoring on three occasions this season, they've yet to concede three or more goals in any of their games in the Premiership.
On the other hand...there might be under 2.5 goals in every game in the Greek Super League over the next couple of days. The likelihood of that happening is remote, so I'm tentatively recommending under 2.5 in the game between Aris Salonica and Kavala - but once again, this depends on the best prices before kickoff (5:30pm GMT). If the price shortens to under 1.5 it's not worth taking.
Monday, 3 January 2011
Tips For Monday 3rd January
Back to the fray, with games from the Championship and Spain. I won six of my eight Championship recommendations for a three point profit in December, so as they're the early kickoffs on Monday we'll start here.
nPower Championship
Both 3:00pm GMT
Barnsley v Coventry
Under 2.5 goals
Reading v Burnley
Definitely worth a look at the draw or opposing Burnley in this one - the only team that's drawn more games at home than Reading have this season is Nottingham Forest and Burnley have drawn the most games away from home. It also helps that the Clarets haven't won in Berkshire for almost 30 years and five of the last ten league games between these at Reading have finished in draws.
My December predictions for La Liga managed a 50% strike rate, so I'm looking to improve that this month. The main issue was picking home winners amongst the 'second tier' of Spanish clubs so I'm going to be more cautious about those this month. It looks as if Espanyol, Villareal and Osasuna might be worth backing at home in January, so when they're at home I'll add them to the calendar. The goal markets were a bit more consistent (two wins from three recommendations in December) so depending on what comes up there might be some more of those in January.
At time of posting, all three of the recommendations below were drifting, so it's worth keeping an eye on the prices and recycling any wins from the Championship bets if necessary.
La Liga
7:00pm GMT
VILLAREAL v Almeria
Definitely worth a look - I backed Villareal to beat Sevilla last month and they've got a good record against teams of a similar level to Almeria
Atletico Madrid v Racing Santander
Racing Santander have only won twice in their last sixteen league visits to the Vicente Calderon and only Osasuna have a worse away record this season.
Real Zaragoza v Real Sociedad
Over 2.5 goals - six of the last ten league meetings between these two at La Romareda have been over, including four of the last five. Seven of Real Sociedad's eight away games this season have also been over.
Busy week this week - Premiership and Greek tips coming tomorrow.
nPower Championship
Both 3:00pm GMT
Barnsley v Coventry
Under 2.5 goals
Reading v Burnley
Definitely worth a look at the draw or opposing Burnley in this one - the only team that's drawn more games at home than Reading have this season is Nottingham Forest and Burnley have drawn the most games away from home. It also helps that the Clarets haven't won in Berkshire for almost 30 years and five of the last ten league games between these at Reading have finished in draws.
My December predictions for La Liga managed a 50% strike rate, so I'm looking to improve that this month. The main issue was picking home winners amongst the 'second tier' of Spanish clubs so I'm going to be more cautious about those this month. It looks as if Espanyol, Villareal and Osasuna might be worth backing at home in January, so when they're at home I'll add them to the calendar. The goal markets were a bit more consistent (two wins from three recommendations in December) so depending on what comes up there might be some more of those in January.
At time of posting, all three of the recommendations below were drifting, so it's worth keeping an eye on the prices and recycling any wins from the Championship bets if necessary.
La Liga
7:00pm GMT
VILLAREAL v Almeria
Definitely worth a look - I backed Villareal to beat Sevilla last month and they've got a good record against teams of a similar level to Almeria
Atletico Madrid v Racing Santander
Racing Santander have only won twice in their last sixteen league visits to the Vicente Calderon and only Osasuna have a worse away record this season.
Real Zaragoza v Real Sociedad
Over 2.5 goals - six of the last ten league meetings between these two at La Romareda have been over, including four of the last five. Seven of Real Sociedad's eight away games this season have also been over.
Busy week this week - Premiership and Greek tips coming tomorrow.
Friday, 17 December 2010
Free Tips For Friday 17th and Saturday 18th December
Here are my tips for Friday and Saturday, it's looking as if the weather might have an impact again in the UK and Belgium so it's worth checking out if the games are still on. By far the best way of doing this is by looking at the official club websites as sometimes the odds comparison sites are a bit behind.
As usual, teams in bold represent the best chance of a straight win, teams in bold caps are what I consider to be home bankers.
FRIDAY
Championship
7:45pm
DONCASTER v Middlesbrough
Boro's dreadful away record is offset here by their recent successes in South Yorkshire: they've won the last three league meetings but have yet to win on the road against any team currently above them.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Academica
SATURDAY
Premiership
12:45pm
Sunderland v Bolton
Draw, under 2.5
0-0 or 1-1 correct score could be worth backing
3:00pm
Blackburn v West Ham
Blackburn should at least score, but Sam Allardyce's sacking casts something of a shadow over the proceedings.
Championship
3:00pm
Hull v Bristol City
Under 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Forest have won six of the last ten head to head in the Midlands and are unbeaten in home games against teams below them - Palace have lost six of eight away games against teams above them.
Watford v Preston postponed
Over 2.5 goals
Greece
3:15
Panionios v Asteras Tripolis
Under 2.5 goals - although caution here as the last three league games in the Athenian suburb of Nea Smyri have been decisively over 2.5 (average goals per game of four)...may not be value, so check the prices before parting with your cash.
Portugal
5:00pm
Benfica v Rio Ave
Benfica are another team where there's never any value in backing them at home, so a clean sheet for the Eagles might be worth a look. After a shock 1-2 home defeat by Academica on the opening day, they've kept six in a row. Rio Ave have scored in half of their away games but four of those five goals came against inferior opposition and they were shut out when they travelled to Sporting Lisbon earlier in October; Benfica have stopped them scoring in three of their last five league visits.
Spain
5pm
Deportivo La Coruna v Sporting Gijon
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Cercle Bruges
Lokeren are easily the most improved team at home in the Jupiler League this season, although leaders Genk aren't far behind. Cercle are playing at about the same level as last season and lost this game 5-3 last season. POSTPONED
Zulte-Waregem v Westerlo
Over 2.5 goals
Zulte-Waregem have scored in nine of their ten home games this season, Westerlo in seven of their nine aways. Both teams to score is the cheaper alternative.
France
8:00pm
St Etienne v Arles
Oppose Arles - although St Etienne have only lost once at home this season, they haven't won at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in the league since mid September. Arles have drawn at Brest and Monaco and both those sides have drawn have the majority of their home games - just like St. Etienne. The hosts have scored in all of their home games in Ligue 1 this season.
Toulouse v Lorient
Under 2.5 goals
As usual, teams in bold represent the best chance of a straight win, teams in bold caps are what I consider to be home bankers.
FRIDAY
Championship
7:45pm
DONCASTER v Middlesbrough
Boro's dreadful away record is offset here by their recent successes in South Yorkshire: they've won the last three league meetings but have yet to win on the road against any team currently above them.
Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Academica
SATURDAY
Premiership
12:45pm
Sunderland v Bolton
Draw, under 2.5
0-0 or 1-1 correct score could be worth backing
3:00pm
Blackburn v West Ham
Blackburn should at least score, but Sam Allardyce's sacking casts something of a shadow over the proceedings.
Championship
3:00pm
Hull v Bristol City
Under 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Forest have won six of the last ten head to head in the Midlands and are unbeaten in home games against teams below them - Palace have lost six of eight away games against teams above them.
Watford v Preston postponed
Over 2.5 goals
Greece
3:15
Panionios v Asteras Tripolis
Under 2.5 goals - although caution here as the last three league games in the Athenian suburb of Nea Smyri have been decisively over 2.5 (average goals per game of four)...may not be value, so check the prices before parting with your cash.
Portugal
5:00pm
Benfica v Rio Ave
Benfica are another team where there's never any value in backing them at home, so a clean sheet for the Eagles might be worth a look. After a shock 1-2 home defeat by Academica on the opening day, they've kept six in a row. Rio Ave have scored in half of their away games but four of those five goals came against inferior opposition and they were shut out when they travelled to Sporting Lisbon earlier in October; Benfica have stopped them scoring in three of their last five league visits.
Spain
5pm
Deportivo La Coruna v Sporting Gijon
Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Cercle Bruges
Lokeren are easily the most improved team at home in the Jupiler League this season, although leaders Genk aren't far behind. Cercle are playing at about the same level as last season and lost this game 5-3 last season. POSTPONED
Zulte-Waregem v Westerlo
Over 2.5 goals
Zulte-Waregem have scored in nine of their ten home games this season, Westerlo in seven of their nine aways. Both teams to score is the cheaper alternative.
France
8:00pm
St Etienne v Arles
Oppose Arles - although St Etienne have only lost once at home this season, they haven't won at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in the league since mid September. Arles have drawn at Brest and Monaco and both those sides have drawn have the majority of their home games - just like St. Etienne. The hosts have scored in all of their home games in Ligue 1 this season.
Toulouse v Lorient
Under 2.5 goals
Wednesday, 8 December 2010
Free Soccer Betting Tips For Friday and Saturday
I've also got some pre-Christmas socialising to do this weekend, hence the early post.
The weather is still playing havoc across Europe and that's why I've got nothing for Portugal - the last round of games is scheduled to finish this afternoon, but even that far south the wind is causing problems and it'll be worth checking to see if some of the northern European games are still on before parting with your cash.
Both the Hungarian and Croatian leagues have gone into hibernation and won't be back until February, but I've done some research into both of them are there are some very strong trends to exploit when they resume at the end of February.
Gent would have been my home banker selection on Saturday, but there's next to no value in the win market. So teams in bold represent the best chances of home wins; Sunday tips will be up either tomorrow or Friday and I'm going to have an depth look at Manchester United v Arsenal as well.
FRIDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
7:45pm
Swansea v Millwall under 2.5 goals
SATURDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm
Burnley v Leeds over 2.5 goals
Reading v Coventry
GREECE
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Aris Salonika under 2.5 goals
Aris could be the most boring side in Europe at the moment. There's only been one goal in every one of their six away games.
5:30pm
PAOK v Iraklis half time draw
FRANCE
6:00pm
Lorient v Lens
Draw/Lorient might work in this game, but any way to oppose Lens looks more likely to pay off. The visitors have not been ahead at half time in any of their seven away games in Ligue 1 this season, Lorient have only been behind once in their eight home games but have been level in four of them. Additionally, Lorient have won the last three league games between these two at the Stade de Moustoir.
Valenciennes v PSG
Draw. Two of the last four league games on the Belgian border have been draws and the hosts have drawn recent games with Lille and St. Etienne. PSG are on a three game away drawing streak, and their away record is similar to that of QPR.
BELGIUM
7:00pm
Gent v Charleroi
Gent should win this at a canter, but there's absolutely no value here apart from in the over 2.5 goals market.
Cercle Brugge v Zulte Waregem
Although Cercle Brugge's home record is superior to Zulte's away record, the visitors have only lost one of their last six league games at the Jan Breydel stadium and they're the draw specialists in the Jupiler League this season. Although Cercle could win this, there's value to be had on a draw at half time with 0-0 as a possible correct score after 45 minutes.
The weather is still playing havoc across Europe and that's why I've got nothing for Portugal - the last round of games is scheduled to finish this afternoon, but even that far south the wind is causing problems and it'll be worth checking to see if some of the northern European games are still on before parting with your cash.
Both the Hungarian and Croatian leagues have gone into hibernation and won't be back until February, but I've done some research into both of them are there are some very strong trends to exploit when they resume at the end of February.
Gent would have been my home banker selection on Saturday, but there's next to no value in the win market. So teams in bold represent the best chances of home wins; Sunday tips will be up either tomorrow or Friday and I'm going to have an depth look at Manchester United v Arsenal as well.
FRIDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
7:45pm
Swansea v Millwall under 2.5 goals
SATURDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm
Burnley v Leeds over 2.5 goals
Reading v Coventry
GREECE
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Aris Salonika under 2.5 goals
Aris could be the most boring side in Europe at the moment. There's only been one goal in every one of their six away games.
5:30pm
PAOK v Iraklis half time draw
FRANCE
6:00pm
Lorient v Lens
Draw/Lorient might work in this game, but any way to oppose Lens looks more likely to pay off. The visitors have not been ahead at half time in any of their seven away games in Ligue 1 this season, Lorient have only been behind once in their eight home games but have been level in four of them. Additionally, Lorient have won the last three league games between these two at the Stade de Moustoir.
Valenciennes v PSG
Draw. Two of the last four league games on the Belgian border have been draws and the hosts have drawn recent games with Lille and St. Etienne. PSG are on a three game away drawing streak, and their away record is similar to that of QPR.
BELGIUM
7:00pm
Gent v Charleroi
Gent should win this at a canter, but there's absolutely no value here apart from in the over 2.5 goals market.
Cercle Brugge v Zulte Waregem
Although Cercle Brugge's home record is superior to Zulte's away record, the visitors have only lost one of their last six league games at the Jan Breydel stadium and they're the draw specialists in the Jupiler League this season. Although Cercle could win this, there's value to be had on a draw at half time with 0-0 as a possible correct score after 45 minutes.
Friday, 3 December 2010
Tips For December 4th
Main one is don't go out unless you have to!
Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.
Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves
Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals
Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.
Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.
UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.
Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.
I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.
The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.
I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.
Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.
Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves
Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals
Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.
Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.
UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.
Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.
I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.
The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.
I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.
Friday, 26 November 2010
26th November
Teams in bold are worth a straight win, if you only fancy one selection the team in bold caps is the one to follow.
Belgium
7:30
Genk v Gent: oppose Gent in both halves, back over 2.5 goals
Championship
7:45
SWANSEA v Portsmouth: oppose Portsmouth, back under 2.5 goals
Portugal
8:15
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: the hosts are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but have drawn more games than they've won and my numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw...so full time draw it is then.
Watching Brief:
Hungary
4:00
Lombard Papa v Debrecen
The pricing is interesting here - I think it's because reigning champions Debrecen have a reasonably good record at Papa, the hosts were beaten 5-1 at home by Ferencvaros last Saturday and Papa's other home defeat came against Fehervar/Videoton, so it's reasonable to assume Lombard Papa's poor record against top four sides is why their price is so large.
However there's no disguising Debrecen's poor away record this season - two draws, six defeats and a minus ten goal difference isn't anything to write home about and the games they lost came against sides that are currently lower than Papa, so this looks like a game that could literally go either way.
I may have a 'day off' tomorrow...doing some pre-Xmas socialising ;-)
Belgium
7:30
Genk v Gent: oppose Gent in both halves, back over 2.5 goals
Championship
7:45
SWANSEA v Portsmouth: oppose Portsmouth, back under 2.5 goals
Portugal
8:15
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: the hosts are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but have drawn more games than they've won and my numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw...so full time draw it is then.
Watching Brief:
Hungary
4:00
Lombard Papa v Debrecen
The pricing is interesting here - I think it's because reigning champions Debrecen have a reasonably good record at Papa, the hosts were beaten 5-1 at home by Ferencvaros last Saturday and Papa's other home defeat came against Fehervar/Videoton, so it's reasonable to assume Lombard Papa's poor record against top four sides is why their price is so large.
However there's no disguising Debrecen's poor away record this season - two draws, six defeats and a minus ten goal difference isn't anything to write home about and the games they lost came against sides that are currently lower than Papa, so this looks like a game that could literally go either way.
I may have a 'day off' tomorrow...doing some pre-Xmas socialising ;-)
Friday, 12 November 2010
Friday Tips
All being well, this will be the first of three posts for this weekend's football, so here are today's selections:
Friday
4:00pm Hungary NB1:
MTK v Lombard Papa: over 2.5 goals
7:45pm npower Championship:
Oppose Hull in first half against Preston (ie dutch Preston or the draw), back over 2.5 goals for the game
Atlanta won last night, just about to sit down and watch it. I've got a feeling that the Falcons could go deep in the playoffs this season.
Friday
4:00pm Hungary NB1:
MTK v Lombard Papa: over 2.5 goals
7:45pm npower Championship:
Oppose Hull in first half against Preston (ie dutch Preston or the draw), back over 2.5 goals for the game
Atlanta won last night, just about to sit down and watch it. I've got a feeling that the Falcons could go deep in the playoffs this season.
Wednesday, 10 November 2010
Wednesday Night: Evaluation Time
OK, hands up time.
I took a look at my spreadsheets after last night's games and I wasn't happy. There was a 50% chance of the draw in the Spurs v Sunderland game and it was plain as the nose on my face - in a red cell with white writing.
The Championship spreadsheet was also not convinced about an Ipswich win either, so I think it's time for a bit of re-evaluation regarding my game selection - so here's what the numbers are saying tonight:
Premiership:
Chelsea to win both halves against Fulham, although there's a 40% chance of a draw. So opposing Fulham looks like the way forward. That's my only recommendation for tonight, but I'll be monitoring the following games to see if I need to overhaul my system.
* Opposing Blackpool at Aston Villa also looks like it would work
* Everton v Bolton and Manchester City v Manchester United both have about 40% chance of a draw, I'm definitely looking at Everton v Bolton being all square at half time.
* West Ham v West Brom and Newcastle v Blackburn could both be over 2.5 goals, although West Brom have yet to score in the first half away from home.
Championship:
Oppose Bristol City at Swansea, although there's a 64% chance of the game being a draw at half time. I'm leaving that one alone for personal reasons though.
Let's see what happens. I've already started working on some games in Europe over the weekend and I'll be posting my selections on Friday morning.
I took a look at my spreadsheets after last night's games and I wasn't happy. There was a 50% chance of the draw in the Spurs v Sunderland game and it was plain as the nose on my face - in a red cell with white writing.
The Championship spreadsheet was also not convinced about an Ipswich win either, so I think it's time for a bit of re-evaluation regarding my game selection - so here's what the numbers are saying tonight:
Premiership:
Chelsea to win both halves against Fulham, although there's a 40% chance of a draw. So opposing Fulham looks like the way forward. That's my only recommendation for tonight, but I'll be monitoring the following games to see if I need to overhaul my system.
* Opposing Blackpool at Aston Villa also looks like it would work
* Everton v Bolton and Manchester City v Manchester United both have about 40% chance of a draw, I'm definitely looking at Everton v Bolton being all square at half time.
* West Ham v West Brom and Newcastle v Blackburn could both be over 2.5 goals, although West Brom have yet to score in the first half away from home.
Championship:
Oppose Bristol City at Swansea, although there's a 64% chance of the game being a draw at half time. I'm leaving that one alone for personal reasons though.
Let's see what happens. I've already started working on some games in Europe over the weekend and I'll be posting my selections on Friday morning.
Tuesday, 9 November 2010
Tuesday Night Football
Cincinnati 21, Pittsburgh 27
Half right again, although my assessment that Cincinnati needed to score at least 23 points to win was correct, as was laying under 50 points.
Pittsburgh's impressive run against the Bengals continues and as they meet again at Heinz Field on December 12th then I'll run some more numbers at that point. Back to association football today.
Premiership:
Tottenham v Sunderland
Sunderland have only won once in their last 20 away games and twice in their last 20 visits to White Hart Lane so opposing them looks like the way forward to me. Although seven out of the last ten games in North London have featured over 2.5 goals, neither of these teams have been prolific in front of goal in the Premiership this season and under 2.5 goals might prove a rewarding investment.
Championship:
Ipswich v Derby
Interesting game between two sides in the top six. Ipswich have a good record against the Rams at Portman Road (eight wins in the last ten games) but although they're value for the win, the possibility of a low scoring game means this also looks like a really good opportunity to dutch the Ipswich win and the draw.
There's another game in the Championship that might be worth a small consideration: Burnley v Doncaster. There will probably be more than 2.5 goals in this one, but most of them will probably be in the second half and there's a very good chance that Burnley might score one in the last ten minutes.
Half right again, although my assessment that Cincinnati needed to score at least 23 points to win was correct, as was laying under 50 points.
Pittsburgh's impressive run against the Bengals continues and as they meet again at Heinz Field on December 12th then I'll run some more numbers at that point. Back to association football today.
Premiership:
Tottenham v Sunderland
Sunderland have only won once in their last 20 away games and twice in their last 20 visits to White Hart Lane so opposing them looks like the way forward to me. Although seven out of the last ten games in North London have featured over 2.5 goals, neither of these teams have been prolific in front of goal in the Premiership this season and under 2.5 goals might prove a rewarding investment.
Championship:
Ipswich v Derby
Interesting game between two sides in the top six. Ipswich have a good record against the Rams at Portman Road (eight wins in the last ten games) but although they're value for the win, the possibility of a low scoring game means this also looks like a really good opportunity to dutch the Ipswich win and the draw.
There's another game in the Championship that might be worth a small consideration: Burnley v Doncaster. There will probably be more than 2.5 goals in this one, but most of them will probably be in the second half and there's a very good chance that Burnley might score one in the last ten minutes.
Tuesday, 19 October 2010
Championship Tuesday
All I can say is that although Blackburn stood a better chance of beating Sunderland with ten men, full credit to them for not getting beaten despite playing for the entire second half with ten men after Chris Samba got sent off. Sunderland are actually a very consistent team - not bad at the Stadium of Light, but awful away from home; the only bet that went awry was the Blackburn win.
In the NFL, it finished Jacksonville 3, Tennessee 30. That's all you need to know.
There's a full Tuesday night programme in the Championship (all kick offs 7:45pm GMT), so here are my picks - usual rules apply unless I mention it in the preview.
Burnley v Barnsley
Although Barnsley won the last time these two played at Turf Moor in the league (1-2 in December 2008), Burnley have won three of the last five games between these teams in Lancashire and are unbeaten at home this season while Barnsley have yet to win away from home. May be a good idea to leave the goals alone though as Burnley have one of the better home defensive records in the Championship - four clean sheets in the last five games - and Barnsley sometimes have difficulty scoring away from home.
Recommendation: Burnley win. Don't use the Strategy With No Name in this game.
Hull v Sheffield United
A Hull win doesn't represent value - although the Tigers are unbeaten at home and have yet to concede a goal at the KC Stadium, an inability to score goals and three scoreless draws in their five league games at home so far isn't exactly inspirational either. They've also not beaten Sheffield United at home since October 1983(!) and three of the last five games between these two at Hull have finished as 0-0 draws.
Recommendation: although 0-0 as a correct score looks tempting, under 2.5 goals looks even better - neither Hull at home or Sheffield United away have been involved in a game featuring over 2.5 goals this season, which is a surprise seeing as though the Championship has averaged 2.73 goals per game in 2010/2011.
Leeds v Leicester
Leeds look really good value - despite losing that ridiculous game to Preston in their last game at Elland Road, they've won three of their five home games in the Championship and shouldn't have much to fear from a Leicester side that have only picked up one point from 15 on the road so far. I can't imagine that Simon Grayson won't want to put one over Sven.
Recommendation: Leeds win and over 2.5 goals.
Possible Upsets
Norwich v Crystal Palace
Despite Norwich being value for the win, I think this could be a possible trap game, given that Crystal Palace have failed to score away from home in the league this season but have tightened up defensively in the past couple of games. The raw numbers aren't disimilar from Leeds v Leicester, but Palace's recent record at Carrow Road (only three defeats in the last ten visits and none in the last five) is something to be aware of before parting with your cash. I'm not parting with mine for that reason.
Nottingham Forest v Middlesbrough
Looks like a Forest win on paper, but as they've now gone over 20 home games without losing this game comes with an official trap warning, especially as Boro haven't won away from the Riverside this season and teams who have recently parted company with their manager sometimes upset the odds.
Leave Alone
Coventry v Cardiff
Although Coventry represent really good value for a win, they have only won three of the last ten league games between these two in the Midlands and the last four games have either been draws or away wins. Best bet may be that both teams score, although over 1.5 goals looks more likely than over 2.5.
I'm going to Bristol City v Reading tonight and although I'd expect over 2.5 goals I'm not going to recommend it as this is a classic case of not getting involved when you're emotionally attached to one of the teams. As long as City don't lose again I'll be happy.
In the NFL, it finished Jacksonville 3, Tennessee 30. That's all you need to know.
There's a full Tuesday night programme in the Championship (all kick offs 7:45pm GMT), so here are my picks - usual rules apply unless I mention it in the preview.
Burnley v Barnsley
Although Barnsley won the last time these two played at Turf Moor in the league (1-2 in December 2008), Burnley have won three of the last five games between these teams in Lancashire and are unbeaten at home this season while Barnsley have yet to win away from home. May be a good idea to leave the goals alone though as Burnley have one of the better home defensive records in the Championship - four clean sheets in the last five games - and Barnsley sometimes have difficulty scoring away from home.
Recommendation: Burnley win. Don't use the Strategy With No Name in this game.
Hull v Sheffield United
A Hull win doesn't represent value - although the Tigers are unbeaten at home and have yet to concede a goal at the KC Stadium, an inability to score goals and three scoreless draws in their five league games at home so far isn't exactly inspirational either. They've also not beaten Sheffield United at home since October 1983(!) and three of the last five games between these two at Hull have finished as 0-0 draws.
Recommendation: although 0-0 as a correct score looks tempting, under 2.5 goals looks even better - neither Hull at home or Sheffield United away have been involved in a game featuring over 2.5 goals this season, which is a surprise seeing as though the Championship has averaged 2.73 goals per game in 2010/2011.
Leeds v Leicester
Leeds look really good value - despite losing that ridiculous game to Preston in their last game at Elland Road, they've won three of their five home games in the Championship and shouldn't have much to fear from a Leicester side that have only picked up one point from 15 on the road so far. I can't imagine that Simon Grayson won't want to put one over Sven.
Recommendation: Leeds win and over 2.5 goals.
Possible Upsets
Norwich v Crystal Palace
Despite Norwich being value for the win, I think this could be a possible trap game, given that Crystal Palace have failed to score away from home in the league this season but have tightened up defensively in the past couple of games. The raw numbers aren't disimilar from Leeds v Leicester, but Palace's recent record at Carrow Road (only three defeats in the last ten visits and none in the last five) is something to be aware of before parting with your cash. I'm not parting with mine for that reason.
Nottingham Forest v Middlesbrough
Looks like a Forest win on paper, but as they've now gone over 20 home games without losing this game comes with an official trap warning, especially as Boro haven't won away from the Riverside this season and teams who have recently parted company with their manager sometimes upset the odds.
Leave Alone
Coventry v Cardiff
Although Coventry represent really good value for a win, they have only won three of the last ten league games between these two in the Midlands and the last four games have either been draws or away wins. Best bet may be that both teams score, although over 1.5 goals looks more likely than over 2.5.
I'm going to Bristol City v Reading tonight and although I'd expect over 2.5 goals I'm not going to recommend it as this is a classic case of not getting involved when you're emotionally attached to one of the teams. As long as City don't lose again I'll be happy.
Thursday, 14 October 2010
Something For The Weekend: nPower Championship
Only have a few recommendations for English football this week due to a rather busy weekend ahead...I won't go into details but I'm going to have a raging hangover on Saturday morning and going over to my wife's parents and meeting up with her family could be a bit of an adventure.
Unless otherwise stated, use the Strategy With No Name on Betfair: out of personal interest all games are in the nPower Championship and kick off at 3:00pm GMT (10:00am EST) - for a general overview for this week's Championship games please visit Buzzin Championship Football.
Barnsley v Forest
Forest have only won twice in their last ten trips to Oakwell, last time was October 2000. Leave goals alone, although under 2.5 is possible it might be better to lay 0-0 instead. Bonus fact: Forest have not had a half time lead this season.
Recommendation: Forest don't seem to be able to win games away from home but they seem to have stopped their losing run - so I'm going to recommend a double chance of Barnsley/draw because although the price is short, it actually represents value.
Derby v Preston
Preston have only won twice in their last league trips to Derby (last win September '02, seven games ago), four of the last five games between these two at Pride Park have been draws. Bonus fact: neither of these teams has scored a goal in the last ten minutes this season - but that doesn't mean there won't be goals as both of these teams usually have very productive first halves when it comes to scoring. Kris Commons (Derby) and John Parkin (Preston) could be worth a look in the anytime goalscorer markets, but Parkin's hat trick in the 6-4 win at Leeds is an aberration rather than the norm.
Recommendation: back Derby at anything over evens and back over 2.5 goals
Ipswich v Coventry
No value in an Ipswich win, which is hardly surprising given the fact that Coventry have only won once at Portman Road in the last 20 league games (April 1994), Ipswich have won eight of the last ten of those games. About 40% chance of a drawn game at half time, which is the exact average for the Championship. Bonus fact: Ipswich have only scored once in the first half of home games in the league this season so backing 0-0 at half time might pay out.
Tentative recommendation: back the second half to be the half with the most goals; don't use the Strategy With No Name in this game.
Reading v Swansea
Plenty of value for a Reading win - I'm assuming that because Swansea won at Watford a couple of weeks ago the bookies think that they've improved, although the Swans had lost their previous eight league games away from home. In any case, Swansea's record at Reading is almost as bad as Coventry's at Ipswich: the Swans last win in Berkshire was in April 1985 and the Royals have won six of the last ten league meetings. Reading haven't been behind at home after 45 minutes this season; Jimmy Kebe of Reading might be worth a look at in the anytime goalscorer odds although he does have a tendency to score against poorer sides in the Championship.
Recommendation: back a Reading win at anything over evens.
Unless otherwise stated, use the Strategy With No Name on Betfair: out of personal interest all games are in the nPower Championship and kick off at 3:00pm GMT (10:00am EST) - for a general overview for this week's Championship games please visit Buzzin Championship Football.
Barnsley v Forest
Forest have only won twice in their last ten trips to Oakwell, last time was October 2000. Leave goals alone, although under 2.5 is possible it might be better to lay 0-0 instead. Bonus fact: Forest have not had a half time lead this season.
Recommendation: Forest don't seem to be able to win games away from home but they seem to have stopped their losing run - so I'm going to recommend a double chance of Barnsley/draw because although the price is short, it actually represents value.
Derby v Preston
Preston have only won twice in their last league trips to Derby (last win September '02, seven games ago), four of the last five games between these two at Pride Park have been draws. Bonus fact: neither of these teams has scored a goal in the last ten minutes this season - but that doesn't mean there won't be goals as both of these teams usually have very productive first halves when it comes to scoring. Kris Commons (Derby) and John Parkin (Preston) could be worth a look in the anytime goalscorer markets, but Parkin's hat trick in the 6-4 win at Leeds is an aberration rather than the norm.
Recommendation: back Derby at anything over evens and back over 2.5 goals
Ipswich v Coventry
No value in an Ipswich win, which is hardly surprising given the fact that Coventry have only won once at Portman Road in the last 20 league games (April 1994), Ipswich have won eight of the last ten of those games. About 40% chance of a drawn game at half time, which is the exact average for the Championship. Bonus fact: Ipswich have only scored once in the first half of home games in the league this season so backing 0-0 at half time might pay out.
Tentative recommendation: back the second half to be the half with the most goals; don't use the Strategy With No Name in this game.
Reading v Swansea
Plenty of value for a Reading win - I'm assuming that because Swansea won at Watford a couple of weeks ago the bookies think that they've improved, although the Swans had lost their previous eight league games away from home. In any case, Swansea's record at Reading is almost as bad as Coventry's at Ipswich: the Swans last win in Berkshire was in April 1985 and the Royals have won six of the last ten league meetings. Reading haven't been behind at home after 45 minutes this season; Jimmy Kebe of Reading might be worth a look at in the anytime goalscorer odds although he does have a tendency to score against poorer sides in the Championship.
Recommendation: back a Reading win at anything over evens.
Thursday, 30 September 2010
Something For The Weekend 2/10/2010
Last full set of games before the next international break, I'm actually going to cautiously recommend an away win this weekend as well as give you a few games to avoid. Assume that the Strategy With No Name should be used in all games - apart from one notable exception, which I'll come to in a minute. All games kick off at 3pm GMT on Saturday afternoon.
nPower Championship
Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest
The price for a Doncaster win is tempting, especially as they've won three of the last four league meetings between these two in South Yorkshire. Forest haven't scored at Doncaster since the last time they won there - a 2-1 win in March 2006 - and although a Doncaster clean sheet might be possible under 2.5 goals might be the punt that lands the cash.
Additional information: 75% of games in the Championship have resulted in home wins/draws with an average of 2.74 goals per game...for which we have to thank Leeds and Preston. I've no idea when the last 4-6 game was, but Barnet 4, Crewe 7 happened nearly 20 years ago.
nPower League 2
Macclesfield Town v Northampton Town
This is the notable exception I mentioned above but it does come with a word of warning. Northampton have won five of the six league games between these two at Moss Rose since Macclesfield joined the Football League. Having said that, Macclesfield's home form is poor (five wins in the last 20 home league games) and the last time they won at home and Northampton won away was in April.
I don't normally go overboard on away wins but a Northampton win could be worth it even though I advised against them in their last away game, as does Under 2.5 goals.
Additional information: 75% of games in League 1 have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.42 goals per game. The relevant stat to this game is that 63% of games in League 1 have resulted in draws/away wins, which would be equivalent of decimal odds of 1.58 (4/7) - the best current price for Northampton/draw is 1.5 (1/2), which is no value whatsoever.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Morton
Another Dundee clean sheet (if you can find prices for it) looks possible but I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a Dundee win, based on the fact that Morton have only scored four goals at Dens Park in their last ten league meetings. Dundee have a very stingy defence, so under 2.5 goals looks a good bet but it may be even lower than that.
Additional information: 74% of games in the Scottish First Division have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.31 goals per game.
Leave Them Alone
Sunderland v Manchester United
United have a tremendous record at Sunderland (only one defeat in the last ten meetings) but Sunderland are very impressive at the Stadium of Light (only two defeats in the last 20 Premiership games). Could go either way, although Sunderland and the draw are good value. Might be under 2.5 goals but don't quote me.
West Ham United v Fulham
Touched on Fulham's poor away record in the Premiership last weekend and their trip across London won't be one they're looking forward to, but there are some contradictory signs here. Fulham have won two of the last ten games at Upton Park in the league (last win November 2001, six games ago), but although they haven't won away this season they've not yet lost on their travels either. Fulham's long term away form may be poor but it is consistent...which can't be said about West Ham's home form as they've gone backwards.
Tranmere Rovers v Brighton
Last Brighton win on the Wirral was in September 1976 - in the seven league meetings at Tranmere since then, Rovers have won five straight. Could be a surprise for Tranmere but Brighton have only lost twice in their last ten away games in League 1, so this is actually a bit of a puzzle along the same lines as Sunderland v Manchester United. May be a low scoring game.
Queen Of The South v Dunfermline
The Doonhamers' 2-0 win over Dunfermline last March was time that the hosts had beaten the Pars since the 85/6 season at Palmerston Park - and that was after they'd lost six of the next nine encounters. Dunfermline have only lost once in the league this season (2-0 at Raith Rovers) and although I'd be surprised if they lost this game, I've no idea how this might turn out.
nPower Championship
Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest
The price for a Doncaster win is tempting, especially as they've won three of the last four league meetings between these two in South Yorkshire. Forest haven't scored at Doncaster since the last time they won there - a 2-1 win in March 2006 - and although a Doncaster clean sheet might be possible under 2.5 goals might be the punt that lands the cash.
Additional information: 75% of games in the Championship have resulted in home wins/draws with an average of 2.74 goals per game...for which we have to thank Leeds and Preston. I've no idea when the last 4-6 game was, but Barnet 4, Crewe 7 happened nearly 20 years ago.
nPower League 2
Macclesfield Town v Northampton Town
This is the notable exception I mentioned above but it does come with a word of warning. Northampton have won five of the six league games between these two at Moss Rose since Macclesfield joined the Football League. Having said that, Macclesfield's home form is poor (five wins in the last 20 home league games) and the last time they won at home and Northampton won away was in April.
I don't normally go overboard on away wins but a Northampton win could be worth it even though I advised against them in their last away game, as does Under 2.5 goals.
Additional information: 75% of games in League 1 have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.42 goals per game. The relevant stat to this game is that 63% of games in League 1 have resulted in draws/away wins, which would be equivalent of decimal odds of 1.58 (4/7) - the best current price for Northampton/draw is 1.5 (1/2), which is no value whatsoever.
Irn-Bru Scottish League Division 1
Dundee v Morton
Another Dundee clean sheet (if you can find prices for it) looks possible but I'm going to stick my neck out and predict a Dundee win, based on the fact that Morton have only scored four goals at Dens Park in their last ten league meetings. Dundee have a very stingy defence, so under 2.5 goals looks a good bet but it may be even lower than that.
Additional information: 74% of games in the Scottish First Division have resulted in either home wins/draws with an average of 2.31 goals per game.
Leave Them Alone
Sunderland v Manchester United
United have a tremendous record at Sunderland (only one defeat in the last ten meetings) but Sunderland are very impressive at the Stadium of Light (only two defeats in the last 20 Premiership games). Could go either way, although Sunderland and the draw are good value. Might be under 2.5 goals but don't quote me.
West Ham United v Fulham
Touched on Fulham's poor away record in the Premiership last weekend and their trip across London won't be one they're looking forward to, but there are some contradictory signs here. Fulham have won two of the last ten games at Upton Park in the league (last win November 2001, six games ago), but although they haven't won away this season they've not yet lost on their travels either. Fulham's long term away form may be poor but it is consistent...which can't be said about West Ham's home form as they've gone backwards.
Tranmere Rovers v Brighton
Last Brighton win on the Wirral was in September 1976 - in the seven league meetings at Tranmere since then, Rovers have won five straight. Could be a surprise for Tranmere but Brighton have only lost twice in their last ten away games in League 1, so this is actually a bit of a puzzle along the same lines as Sunderland v Manchester United. May be a low scoring game.
Queen Of The South v Dunfermline
The Doonhamers' 2-0 win over Dunfermline last March was time that the hosts had beaten the Pars since the 85/6 season at Palmerston Park - and that was after they'd lost six of the next nine encounters. Dunfermline have only lost once in the league this season (2-0 at Raith Rovers) and although I'd be surprised if they lost this game, I've no idea how this might turn out.
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
The Results Are In...
Not a bad haul for an evening's work. Only one disaster but the losses were covered so I'm not complaining too much.
Nottingham Forest 1, Sheffield United 1
Under was correct, the only thing that fell down was backing a Forest win.
Brighton 1, Brentford 0
Under was correct, as was Brighton's clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers 0, Tranmere 1
A bad night for both of Bristol's clubs (City lost 3-1 to Portsmouth in the Championship), Tranmere's streak snapped but backing the under was the correct call. Reset the clock.
Don't Touch It With A Barge Pole:
Kettering 3, Altrincham 3
French striker Jean-Paul Marna scored a hat-trick for Kettering, but Altrincham equalised with ten minutes left. Looks as if it was a good game.
Result Of The Night:
Leeds 4, Preston 6. Presumably this is going to be the best of three sets. New balls please.
I've got no scheduled posts between now and Friday, but there are some big games in the NFL this weekend and I'm pleased to say that I've been given permission to use some data from a very well respected source to aid my tips. I've also got two days to work out where I'm going to spend a £10 free bet I've got with one of the major bookies.
Nottingham Forest 1, Sheffield United 1
Under was correct, the only thing that fell down was backing a Forest win.
Brighton 1, Brentford 0
Under was correct, as was Brighton's clean sheet.
Bristol Rovers 0, Tranmere 1
A bad night for both of Bristol's clubs (City lost 3-1 to Portsmouth in the Championship), Tranmere's streak snapped but backing the under was the correct call. Reset the clock.
Don't Touch It With A Barge Pole:
Kettering 3, Altrincham 3
French striker Jean-Paul Marna scored a hat-trick for Kettering, but Altrincham equalised with ten minutes left. Looks as if it was a good game.
Result Of The Night:
Leeds 4, Preston 6. Presumably this is going to be the best of three sets. New balls please.
I've got no scheduled posts between now and Friday, but there are some big games in the NFL this weekend and I'm pleased to say that I've been given permission to use some data from a very well respected source to aid my tips. I've also got two days to work out where I'm going to spend a £10 free bet I've got with one of the major bookies.
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