Free Tips For Tuesday 15th March

Not a bad weekend: there were only two expensive mistakes (Vasas beat Ujpest 1-0 with ten men and suddenly - at the end of the season - Greek sides remembered how to score goals) but I think the word 'satisfactory' is appropriate here, especially as Nick Watney did the business in the golf.

Back to 'rough and ready' for today's games in the nPower Football League, bold equals probable home win, bold caps means probable home banker.

nPower Championship
Burnley v Coventry City
Burnley look underpriced and I'm tempted to leave the home win alone, especially as Coventry sacked Aidy Boothroyd on Monday and could come out firing in all cylinders. Doesn't look as if it's going to be a high scoring game and under 3.5 goals looks likely, especially as Eddie Howe will want to see a defensive improvement from the Clarets after they were stuffed 3-0 by Millwall at the weekend.

nPower League 1
Carlisle v Plymouth
Not really enough to suggest that Carlisle will win (they've only won seven home league games from the last 20), but enough to suggest that they won't lose either (six defeats in the last 20 homes). Dutch Carlisle/draw and/or lay Plymouth (or both if you've had a good day at Cheltenham). Under 3.5 goals here too.


nPower League 2
ACCRINGTON STANLEY v Burton
Be very careful here - Accrington have only won four consecutive home league games once since they joined the Football League in 2007 and although they've come close to a repeat a couple of times, they seem to have a habit of screwing up the fourth leg.

The goal expectancy for this game is 2.36, but I'd be tempted to look at it the other way around - half of Burton's six most recent away games have featured more than three goals and Stanley are more than capable of scoring at home. Back over 1.5 goals.

It's the first day of the Cheltenham Festival today and I'm going to be posting my tips: as with anything else, follow these at your peril or do the exact opposite ;-)

1:30 Cue Card EW, lay Zaidpour
2:05 Medermit EW
2:40 lay Great Endeavour
3:20 Menorah EW
4:40 Banjaxed Girl EW
5:15 Definity EW, lay Tullamore Dew

Helsingborg Go Top In Sweden

Helsingborg 3-1 BK Hacken: despite a surprise early goal from Mattias Ostberg, Helsingborg reclaimed top spot in the Allsvenskan earlier this evening and now have a five point lead going into this weekend's games. 


Two goals from Eric Sundin and a winner from Marcus Holgersson seventeen minutes from time meant that the hosts kept not only their unbeaten half time record but also their home undefeated streak intact: they're away at Brommapojkarna next Monday, two days after Malmo entertain GAIS.


Romantic Queen finished fourth. I think a spell of paper trading is called for ;-)

King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes

Not a lot between Workforce and Harbinger, although it's a shame that Dar-Re-Mi withdrew. The only runners that can be pretty much written off are Confront (Workforce's pacemaker and currently trading at 390 on Betfair) and Daryakana, although the latter is a genuine wildcard. I've laid Harbinger at Betfair (just in time for a change as the price is starting to drift) but have an insurance bet elsewhere just in case.

That's it until next week, just about to start watching Australia v South Africa in the Tri Nations.

Blackpool Through...Who's Next?

Blackpool won a sensational game at the City Ground tonight: having beaten Nottingham Forest 4-2 (and I was not expecting that many goals so it was probably just as well I didn't commit any cash to that), they'll be playing for a place in the Premiership in a week and a half. But who will face them?

I think it'll be Cardiff City. Having already won at Leicester at the weekend they have a genuine advantage which I think they can exploit. Cardiff have lost once in their last fourteen home games, have won six of their last ten homes games against the Foxes including the last two meetings - which includes both the league and FA Cup this season. I was considering looking at the over/under 2.5 goal market but Cardiff's win odds are pretty good so I'm not going to bother.

As for the Europa League final, I'm interested to see what happens but not sufficiently motivated to get involved with my wallet...I'm going to go for Atletico Madrid with neither side keeping a clean sheet but I'd be delighted if Fulham won.

No 'official' racing tips for Wednesday, but the wonderfully named Frosted Grape might be worth a look in the 3:55 at Exeter.