Wise After The Event...Again!

Off to Sweden for the first time for a while: a classic top v bottom encounter when Norkopping take on Vasby United in the Superettan, which is the second tier of Swedish football. I need to find the umlauts in Verdana - both Norkopping and Vasby have them.


Norkopping are joint top with GIF Sundsvall with nine games left to play; the pair of them have a seven point lead over a pack of teams chasing the promotion playoff place. Vasby are currently in one of the two automatic relegation positions, two points ahead of Trollhatten but three points behind Osters.


And guess what? The game is not only a top v bottom game, but also a Norkopping/draw half time dutching opportunity - even down to Vasby not having been in the lead at half time away from home this season. Interestingly enough though, I'm not sure that I'm going to recycle the money if the dutch wins as a Norkopping win doesn't hold much value at all - I've priced them up at 1.67 (about 4/6) favourites which is nowhere near the 1.33 (1/3) that a lot of the bookies have them at.


Tuesday night's games were interesting - Bohemians beat Bray as predicted, but only by 2-0. Missed opportunities for under 2.5 and a Bohemians clean sheet? Possibly, but it shows that bookies are fallible and there's a certain amount of (unpaid) satisfaction in that. Cambridge United drew 2-2 with Crawley: all four goals came in the first half an hour. The draw was available for 3.4 (12/5) but I'd priced it at evens; very much food for thought for later in the season.


The Champions League games were close - and I'll be keeping a close eye on Rosenborg's game at FC Copenhagen next week to see if the Norwegians qualify for the group stages, which will be played at the same time as the Eliteserien comes to a climax.


I've got some watching brief games in England and Scotland for the weekend, as I'm not going to be around for them (I've got a birthday bash to attend) I'll post them with some reaction next week.

The Season In England Comes To A Close

We've got the last two play off finals coming up this weekend: Millwall v Swindon for a place in the Championship and Dagenham & Redbridge v Rotherham meet to replace whoever wins in League 1. Once again, the win markets are skewed a little because the prospect of extra time and/or penalties could decide the games, but although I expect Rotherham to escape League 2, I'm not sure which team will reach the Championship. Millwall are favoured, but I'm not sure why. It's reasonable to try to set odds for a game at a neutral site based on away form, in which case Swindon have a better record - and Millwall have not scored an away goal in the last three games.

I'm going to follow the same system that I used last Saturday - which sort of worked! Under 3.5 goals was blown away in the first half at Wembley, but Over 1.5 worked both at Wembley and in Madrid and Inter's 2-0 win over Bayern Munich meant that Under 3.5 worked in the Champions League final. Dagenham & Redbridge v Rotherham should be OK for both, but as the last game between Millwall and Swindon finished 3-2 to the side from East London.

Real Madrid sacked Massimo Pellegrini during the week, which leaves the job open for Jose Mourinho. It remains to be seen if Blackpool's Ian Holloway will be approached by Inter Milan for the Special One's old job in Italy.

Incidentally, laying Inter Milan for the 2010/11 Champions League should be done as soon as the opportunity is available: no club has won back to back Champions Leagues. I'd also be a little circumspect about Blackpool being relegated from the Premiership next season: there will be better prices for other teams and as both Hull and Bradford City have shown in the past, relegation is not inevitable. I also wouldn't back Holloway to be the first manager to be sacked next season.

A racing lay for tomorrow: Just Sam in the 5:40 at Newcastle.

Swan Song In Madrid?

Two massive games on Saturday: the Championship play off final between Blackpool and Cardiff City and in the evening the final of the UEFA Champions League between Inter Milan and Bayern Munich. Not surprisingly, considering both games are 'finals' played at neutral venues (Cardiff are a Welsh team after all) they could turn out to be very similar types of games.

Blackpool and Cardiff kick off first, so let's start there. I think Cardiff will win and get promoted to the Premiership but that's not something I'm going to trade. These games have been extremely tight over the past few seasons - the average margin of victory over the last 20 games is 1.35 goals, five of the last seven games have finished 1-0 and the losing side has failed to score in ten of the last thirteen. Having written all that, I have a feeling that both teams may score - but if they do, remember that there's a correlation between both sides scoring and the game going to extra time. The last four games where both teams scored went to extra time and two of those went to penalty shoot outs.

Being naturally risk averse (that will become much clearer next season), I'm going to trade the following markets:

* Lay under 0.5 goals. There is always at least one goal in 90 minutes in these games - even if it's only one. In that case, it's also logical to lay 0-0 - it's extremely unlikely that will happen.

* Back over 1.5 goals - but remember, that's the same as laying under 1.5 goals, but you'll probably get better odds that way round (even if the potential liability is higher)

* Back under 3.5 goals and under 4.5 goals. Once again, that's the same as laying over 3.5 goals...well, you get the picture.

The one market I'm leaving well alone is Over/Under 2.5 goals. The logic I've presented above indicates my belief that there will be at least one goal but there probably won't be more than three; that also rules in scores like 1-0 (five of the last seven games, remember?), 1-1 (here's where it's likely to go to extra time at least) and 2-1 (which is a really common score in English football but hasn't happened in a Championship play off final since the end of the 1995/6 season - and that was after extra time)

One last point before moving on to Inter v Bayern: this season, Cardiff scored 58% of their goals in the league before 50 minutes and Blackpool scored 64% of their goals after 50 minutes. In that case it might be reasonable to assume that the longer the game goes without a goal, the more likely Blackpool are to nick it; a Cardiff goal in the first 20 minutes is a distinct possibility.

The average margin of victory in European Cup/Champions League finals is 1.15 goals but there are no current scoring sequences like there are in the Championship playoff final.

In actual fact, there's something to be said for looking for trading opportunities in the same goal markets as the Blackpool v Cardiff game. In fact, there is a recent trend for both teams to score in the Champions League final - Barcelona's 2-0 win over Manchester United last season was the first time that only the winners had scored since Porto's win over Monaco in 2004. Porto's manager that day: Jose Mourinho.

Both Mourinho and his Bayern counterpart Louis Van Gaal have won the competition, but if you're looking for intangibles it's probably worth remembering that although Bayern Munich won in 2001, Inter have not won since their 1965 win over Benfica and haven't appeared in the final since they lost to Ajax in 1972: their local rivals AC Milan have played in seven of the last 20 finals and have won four of them. Having won five consecutive Serie A titles, a win for Inter tomorrow night would make the point that the balance of power in Italy has changed: unfortunately for them, it might also be Mourinho's swansong with the Nerazzuri and a chance for him to establish a myth in the stadium which is rumoured to be his new home...

Happy Birthday To My Wife

No tips today, but a big Happy Birthday to my wife!

Cardiff got through by the skin of their teeth, as did Atletico Madrid despite a great effort from Fulham.

Should be back on Friday...with a bit of advice. That I should remember myself!

Blackpool Through...Who's Next?

Blackpool won a sensational game at the City Ground tonight: having beaten Nottingham Forest 4-2 (and I was not expecting that many goals so it was probably just as well I didn't commit any cash to that), they'll be playing for a place in the Premiership in a week and a half. But who will face them?

I think it'll be Cardiff City. Having already won at Leicester at the weekend they have a genuine advantage which I think they can exploit. Cardiff have lost once in their last fourteen home games, have won six of their last ten homes games against the Foxes including the last two meetings - which includes both the league and FA Cup this season. I was considering looking at the over/under 2.5 goal market but Cardiff's win odds are pretty good so I'm not going to bother.

As for the Europa League final, I'm interested to see what happens but not sufficiently motivated to get involved with my wallet...I'm going to go for Atletico Madrid with neither side keeping a clean sheet but I'd be delighted if Fulham won.

No 'official' racing tips for Wednesday, but the wonderfully named Frosted Grape might be worth a look in the 3:55 at Exeter.

Yet Another Mixed Bag

I'm going to take the evening off on Tuesday, purely because although I'd love to find an angle in the markets for the second leg of the Nottingham Forest v Blackpool Championship playoff semi final, I just cannot find one. So I'm going to simply watch the game instead.

Trabzonspor beat Denizlispor 2-1 earlier, although the markets got a bit jumpy after Denizlispor equalized before half time. Blue Tango would have been a better lay (he finished last!) and Captain Smoothy was a non-runner.