Free Tips For Sunday 10th April

A bit of an experiment today - all the games apart from Ujpest/Debrecen are low stakes bets and two of them are double chances rather than dutches as the odds are better. Helsingborg are today's possible home bankers.

Allsvenskan
3:30pm
HELSINGBORG v Elfsborg
Helsingborg/draw double chance
Result: Helsingborg 1, Elfsborg 0

Hungary NB1
4:30pm
Ujpest v Debrecen
The only trap element is that Debrecen haven't won away from home, which may be the reason for the frankly ridiculous price they've been given. Ujpest/draw double chance.
Result: Ujpest 2, Debrecen 2 - Ujpest had to come from behind twice courtesy of a brace from Estonian strike Jarmo Ahjupera.

Norway
5:00pm
Aalesund v Haugesund
Double chance Aalesund or draw,although if this game came up later in the season with the same numbers I'd be recommending a home win.
Result: Aalesund 1, Haugesund 0


Tromso v Start
Dutch home/draw
Result: Tromso 2, Start 0

7:00pm
Rosenborg v Lillestrom
Rosenborg's two defeats to start the 2011 Tippeligaen after going undefeated in 2010 have come as a shock to those that have backed for the title (ie me) and although it's far to early to write them off, another loss would be catastrophic. I'm leaving them alone until they've reached some kind of equilibrium, so this is watching brief only although I'd be surprised if Rosenborg lose today.

Free Advice For Monday 4th April

Lost amongst all the noise of an admittedly extremely exciting weekend in European football is the no less amazing story coming from Norway: Rosenborg lost again yesterday, this time to a Stabaek side that had been hammered at home by Lillestrom before the international break. As in 'hammered 7-0'. At home. Let that sink in a bit.

The last Rosenborg lost two consecutive games in the Tippeligaen was at the end of the 2008 season, when they finished fifth, fifteen points behind Stabaek. I wouldn't completely rule them out of a title challenge, but in a competition that only plays 30 games a season, a six point deficit is a large one.

Today's games are both from Scandinavia, something a little different from Sweden as I'd not be surprised if AIK nick it - and if they're going to do that, they'll need to score.

Norway
6:00pm
Lillestrom v Brann
Lay Brann or dutch home/draw.
Result: Lillestrom 1, Brann 4. The early season craziness in Norway continues.


Sweden
7:00pm
Djurgardens v AIK
Lay 0-0.

Back tomorrow, possibly with some Champions League, but probably with some more comments about Accrington Stanley.

Free Tips For Sunday April 3rd

Hungary
4:30pm
DEBRECEN (nap) v Gyori
Intriguing game between these two: Debrecen play like champions at home record (unbeaten at home in the last 20 league games) but like relegation candidates away; Gyori have only lost five times in their last 20 aways but have only won five road trips over the same period. This game was made for dutching home win/draw or laying Gyori.
Result: Debrecen 1, Gyori 1

Norway
5:00pm
Start (nb) v Stromsgodset
Dutch the home win/draw and back over 2.5 goals.
Result: Start 5, Stromsgodset 1. Which is what happens when you have a man sent off within 10 minutes of kickoff.

The Rosenborg/Stabaek game is actually this evening, which is fine from a 'wasn't going to get involved' point of view but rubbish if I had been. I try to check kick off times as often as possible, but I obviously need to check multiple sources.

Back tomorrow with more tips, might have some tentative recommendations for the Champions League this week.

Free Tip For Saturday April 2nd

With Greece having reached 27 games and Belgium into the playoffs, it's time to wave those competitions goodbye for this season. I'll be going back to looking at Portugal next weekend, so it's basically Croatia, Hungary, Norway and Sweden from now on, with occasional forays into the end of season action in England and possibly MLS (if I can work out what the hell they're actually doing over there).

Yes, there is only one main recommendation for today, but that's a sign that the 'winter' seasons are coming to an end. There are a lot of games tomorrow.

Hungary
4:00pm
SZOMBATHELY (nap) v Kecskemeti
There's enough here to suggest a Szombathely win without being bothered with anything else. However, in the interests of risk management Szombathely draw no bet might be better: Kecskemeti haven't managed an away draw for over 20 games and that's enough of a trap for me.
Result: Szombathely 1, Kecskemeti 0 - Peter Toth scored the winner in the second minute of injury time.

Norway
I'm expecting Rosenborg to batter Stabaek today, but the Rosenborg win price isn't worth taking so I'm leaving it alone. It'll be interesting to see what happens though.

Free Tips For Friday 1st April

It's tempting to throw some ridiculous tips in for April fool's day but I don't think anyone would notice ;-)

Hungary
4:00pm
Kaposvari v Vasas
Bit of a warning: the last time I recommended opposing Vasas in an away game with a strong favourite, they won: they're still averaging less than one goal away from home this season and Kaposvari are averaging 2.7 at home.
Result: Kaposvari 0, Vasas 1. I'll be reviewing the policy of opposing Vasas away from home as a matter of urgency as it's clearly the wrong call! 

6:00pm
Ferencvaros (nb) v Ujpest
The biggest Budapest derby: some trap elements here as Ferencvaros have lost three of their last four home games against their biggest cross town rivals, but today's game is probably Fradi's best chance of beating them for a while. Ujpest's away form this season has been awful.
Result: Ferencvaros 1, Ujpest 0

Norway
6:00pm
VALERENGA (nap) v Aalesund
I eventually managed to get a Tippeligaen preview done, you can find it here. I'm also going to recommend using a lower stake for this game as this is only Week 2 in Norway and with Rosenborg's defeat last week I think it's safe to say that things haven't exactly gone to form so far. Valerenga didn't lose at home last season and I don't think they'll lose this one - Aalesund don't like travelling to the Ullevaal (they've lost seven of their last eight there) and I don't think they'll get anything this evening.
Update: dutching Valerenga/draw is pointless, it's probably better to lay Aalesund.
Result: Valerenga 2, Aalesund 0

Sunday 20th March

Time is of the essence as I've got a busy day on Saturday...I've decided to divide this post into two sections as the Norwegian tips should be backed with smaller stakes as it's the beginning of their season.

Update: this should be interesting. I've been visiting my niece and her family and didn't get any of the bets on. Let's see what happens.


Hungary
4:30pm
Ujpest v MTK
Ujpest one home defeat this season, MTK one away win. The hosts have won the last two league meetings but MTK have won five of the last ten at the Ferenc Szusza stadium - Ujpest draw no bet.
Result: Ujpest 2, MTK 1


Greece
These are the last tips for Hellenic League this season as this is Week 27 - if Olympiakos win they're champions and apart from the relegation spots everything else looks done and dusted. I've deliberately ignored teams in the relegation zone this week.

5:00pm
Iraklis v Panionios
Under 3.5 goals
Result: 1-1


OLYMPIAKOS v AEK
Far be it from me to suggest any impropriety, but it does look as if the champions elect lost at PAOK last weekend so they could win the title in front of their own fans. AEK are no mugs, having won four of their last five road trips so I'm going to suggest the usual dutch here - because Olympiakos haven't drawn (or lost!) so far this season.
Result: Olympiakos 6, AEK 0


Panathinaikos v Kerkyra
It would take a strange set of results over the last four games for Panathinaikos to win the title and they need to win this game and hope that Olympiakos lose at home to AEK. I don't think that's going to happen - oppose Kerkyra.
Result: Panathinaikos 2, Kerkyra 1


Norway
Keep the stakes realistic as this is just the first week.
5:00pm
Odd Grenland v Start
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Odd Grenland 0, Start 2

Tromso v Haugesund
Oppose Haugesund
Result: Tromso 2, Haugesund 0

7:00pm
Brann v Rosenborg
Over 1.5 goals
Result: Brann 2, Rosenborg 1

LOL, bl**dy typcial - they all came in on the day I didn't put any of them on!

Sunday Roundup

Picked up a nice little profit: £4.06 ($6.48) on the Start v Brann game in the Norwegian Eliteserien. Start won 3-1 but also lead at half time - the stats before the game are useless now so I won't bother including them, let's just say they were the right fit even though there was another one of those weird head to head records.

Rosenborg now have a nine point lead in Norway - they won 3-1 at Sandefjord on Saturday and Valerenga lost 2-0 at Haugesund yesterday. There are ten games left to go, but after the games that will be played on Sunday 17th October I'll be leaving the Eliteserien alone as there'll be three weeks left and that's normally when results start getting weird. Not only that, the major European leagues will start generating possibilities.

Nothing worth looking at on Monday, but if I find anything over the next couple of days I'll let you know.

Abdellaoue Hat Trick As Valerenga Smash Start

Valerenga 8, Start 1: the visitors got off to a good...ummm...start when they scored in the 12th minute but it was all downhill from there.

I thought there'd be goals in this game, but I wasn't expecting nine! Mohammed Abdellaoue filled his boots with a hat trick and is now four goals ahead of former Spurs, Wolves and Valerenga striker Steffen Iversen (now with Rosenborg) in the leading goalscorer table: there are a few clips on YouTube showing what Abdellaoue is capable of and it he's that good I can't imagine him playing in Norway for much longer.

Bonus: here are the goals!



In Sweden, Trelleborg beat Halmstad 1-0 thanks to a goal from Mattias Adelstam twelve minutes from time - Trelleborg really were very good value for the win so I hope you benefitted from that one.

Yesterday's profit on Betfair: £3.51! I decided to invest some of the profit on one of the major European leagues - more of which later in the week.

Monday Night Football

Very quick post because one of the games this evening is worth a look because the odds are very weird: Trelleborg v Halmstad in the Swedish Allsvenskan satisfies my basic system requirements but the head to head statistics are freaky and have given the odds compilers a real headache.


The problem in a nutshell: Trelleborg have won just two of the last twelve meetings between these two at the Vangavallen Stadium (including the last one) and despite currently being below Halmstad in the league table they have a reasonably good home record - it's Trelleborg's away form that's appalling and their record away from home is slightly actually better than Halmstad's current away record.


Recommendations: the usual - Halmstad haven't lead at the half all season but as there's a 50% chance of a draw then dutching Trelleborgs/draw looks like the way forward. However, I would strongly recommend an insurance bet of draw/Halmstads. However, I'm also going to recommend a Trelleborg win on Betfair because Halmstad need to score to have any chance at all and they've only scored three goals in eight away games in the league season - the insurance bet here is draw or Halmstad, which should be available at a decent price before kickoff.


The other game is in the Norwegian Eliteserien and should be more straightforward. Valerenga have not lost at home this season and can move into second place with a win over Start this evening; Start have won their last two away games (against struggling Sandefjord and Molde, both of whom are beneath them) but have only won five of their last 20 road trips.


And guess what? Valerenga haven't been behind at half time. If you've been paying attention you know what to do, but as an added bonus tonight's game features the leading scorer in the Eliteserien, Mohammed Abdellaoue of Valerenga. He's scored 31% of their goals this season and is worth a punt for either first goal/anytime goalscorer, which is only available at bet365.


Right, got to go...have to put the money on!

Sunday Round Up

Malmo 1, GAIS 0: a 22nd minute goal from Ivo Pekalski put Malmo within two points of leaders Helsingborgs, who play this evening. Malmo's home streak continues - next home game is 14th August against struggling Gefle.


Viking 0, Sandefjord 0: Viking/half time dutch worked out OK, but Viking to win didn't; a good job I had an insurance bet on half time/Sandefjord - I picked up £5.58 (almost $9) on that. I also had one of bwin's two way specials on Sandefjord -  if the game ends in a draw, then you get your stake back.


Tromso 3, Stabaek 0: another weird laptop intervention - my system hung just before kick off and when I managed to open the market there had already been a goal. George Mourad opened the scoring after four minutes but I actually managed to complete two cycles of the 'ten minute' strategy so it wasn't a write off by any means. I hadn't expected a 3-0 scoreline so it was a bit of a risk, but there were 61 minutes between the first and second goals - so that trade could have been executed six times.


St Louis Cardinals 9, Pittsburgh Pirates 1: it was too late to post this game as a recommendation yesterday, but what swung it for me was that Pittsburgh had lost 14 straight Sunday road games. Make that 15. Why is there no relegation in baseball? The Pirates would probably struggle in AAA ball.


Betfair profit for yesterday: £3.15 ($5 more or less). Remember, I'm currently trading at minimum stakes (£2 per bet - about $3.17), but even so that's basically a free bet.


I'm going to post this now, but I've got an unexpected afternoon off work and there are a couple of Monday games in Scandinavia that look promising.

Sunday In Scandinavia

I managed to get the original list of five games down to three, of which two look worthwhile and one needs some extra logic applied to it. But first of all, I have to admit to feeling immensely pleased with myself: Fluminense won 3-1 so yesterday couldn't really have gone any better.


Today's action kicks off at Malmo at 3:30 GMT where the hosts take on GAIS in the Allsvenskan. I could just cut and paste the next comments from some of the other previews I've written recently, but I'm going to write it again for the sake of emphasis: Malmo have not been trailing either at half time or at full time of any of their home games this season. GAIS haven't exactly been awful away from home (they have only lost four of their last ten away games in the Allsvenskan); that's a little different from the other part of the home win equation that's come up in the past couple of weeks and effectively reduces the chances that Malmo will win both halves. So - once again - it's a dutch on Malmo or draw for the first half, which looks like this:


Malmo £2.27@2.12 = £2.54 profit 
The draw £2@2.4 = £2.80 profit
GAIS leading at half time = £4.27 loss
Dutch profit: 53p (which I can go wild with!), although the total return would be £5.87.
Insurance: draw or GAIS to at least cover the £4.27 loss - although if the game is a draw at half time then that bet is a good one too. That's exactly what happened with the Dynamo Moscow game yesterday.


However, even if the game is a draw at half time, I think there's enough evidence to point to a Malmo win - there's no time for reams of stats today so you'll have to trust me.


Malmo win £2 @ 1.52 = £1.04 profit, total return £3.04.
Draw or GAIS win: £2.00 loss
Insurance: draw or GAIS to cover the £2 loss.


The next couple of games are in Norway, both kick off at 5pm GMT. The most straightforward of the two is between Viking Stavanger and Sandefjord - the latter are rock bottom of the Eliteserien and have lost 12 of their last 20 away games. They satisfy one of the major requirements for a home win: Sandefjord have lead at half time or won away this season. You could lay Sandefjord to be behind at half time and lose the game, but the liabilities are large, so at the risk of being predictable I'm going to recommend exactly the same strategy as  the Malmo v GAIS game above.


The last game is a tricky one. Tromso v Stabaek qualified for my basic system but on closer inspection this one of those games where the away side has an extremely good head to head record against the home team. In fact, Stabaek have won four of the last eight games in Tromso between the two and have drawn half of their away games in the Eliteserien this season. There's a reasonable possibility of a draw but at this point I normally look for what's least likely to happen in this game and in this case it's goals.


Tromso have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 games and have only let in more than one goal on one occasion in that period, so whichever way you look at it they have a strong defensive home record. The last four matches in the series at the Alfheim Stadium have been close - no more than one goal in those games - and despite there being 2.87 goals per game in the Eliteserien this season this game looks as if it might be under 2.5. Two ways forward here:


Lay Over 2.5 goals - £2 @ 2.1, which would mean a total liability of £4.10 if it turned into a goal fest but a profit of £2 if it didn't. This can be a good option if you're looking to trade as soon as a goal is scored but predicting when that might be is an art rather than a science.


Alternatively, lay Over 2.5 goals as soon as the game goes in play, wait ten minutes then back it whatever the price is. Then do the same thing again. Then stop and wait for a goal and repeat step one. This is what I'm going to do - so I need to find my stopwatch!


I'm going to look at some of today's baseball match ups now, but I'll update this post with what happened in the Scandinavian games later on. I'm also aware that I've not posted my major European soccer predictions yet, but there is still some research to be done.

The Easiest Way To Avoid Losing!

Don't strike any bets.

Buoyed by the 0-0 draw between Terek Groznyi and Amkar Perm on Sunday, I totally forgot to commit to Molde and Sandefjord - I managed to get 5:00pm mixed up with 7:00pm, which is pathetic! It goes without saying that the Molde/half time dutch would have worked.

Corinthians beat Atletico Mineiro 1-0 thanks to a late goal from Bruno Cesar; they still hold pole position in Serie A despite a 3-1 defeat at Atletico Goianiense earlier today. So all in all a mostly satisfactory Sunday - apart from the screw up with the Molde game.

I'm only going to recommend one game this weekend because it's my birthday on Saturday and I'm going to have a couple of days off.

The game is Malmo v AIK in the Swedish Allsvenskan on Saturday. A Malmo win can take them within two points of leaders Helsingborg, who lost earlier this evening to BK Hacken in Gothenburg; Malmo haven't lost at home this season, they haven't been behind at half time all season and haven't lost at home to AIK since October 1996. Defending champions AIK have had a terrible start to the season, having lost five of their last seven aways games without scoring in five them: however they've qualified for the third qualifying round of Champions League, they'll play Rosenborg next week.

Malmo or draw or laying an AIK lead at half time might be a good place to start, although the AIK lay is currently priced at 7.4; the current best price for Malmo to win the game is 13/20.

Vakuutus is Finnish for Insurance

Shocker in Finland: KuPS won at HJK Helsinki, Nigerian striker Dickson Nwakaeme scored both goals in a come from behind victory at the Finnair stadium. It was 1-1 at half time: I'd dutched HJK or draw at the half so I was happy with that. I had an insurance bet on draw/KuPS at half time so that paid off too. If Nwakaeme can score two on the road against HJK then he might be worth keeping an eye on in future games.

Valerenga ended up beating Kongsvinger 5-2 but the first half was action packed - two goals in the first four minutes and - to my immense relief - only a late own goal by former Everton, Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Charlton goalkeeper Thomas Myhre saved Valerenga's impressive half time record.

The Cardinals beat the Dodgers 2-0 and I managed to back another 'loser' horse yesterday. So that's four in a row now - I'll publish the full results at the end of the month but I'm not going to recommend laying any horses until my results have settled down.

Today's tips in chronological order are:

* Terek Groznyi v Amkar Perm (Russian League 3:45pm GMT): Terek or draw at half time as Terek haven't been behind after the first half and Amkar haven't been in front. I'm also going to be testing a trading strategy based on Under 2.5 goals.

* Molde v Sandefjord (Norwegian Eliteserien 5:00pm GMT): Molde or draw at half time for pretty much the same reason as the Terek game and Molde to win the game if they're winning at half time. Sandefjord have lost all eight of their away games in the league this season but have been level at half time in three of them, hence the caution.

* Corinthians v Atletico Mineiro (Brazilian Serie A 8:00pm GMT): Corinthians have won all their home league games this season, Atletico Mineiro have lost all their away games. Might be worth having a look at Corinthians winning both halves, Corinthians to win the game is what I'm going with.

I'm also looking at a couple of MLB games but if anything worth investigating comes up I'll update this post.

Sometimes You Need Insurance!

The World Cup Final went the way I thought it would - a low scoring game that featured the latest goal scored in the final, which also happened to be the first opening goal scored by a player with a surname that begins with a vowel. I actually dutched (forgive the pun) all scores under three goals and that worked out well, although without looking at the numbers 0-0 in normal time was the least profitable. I also won the sweepstake at my office with Spain, so I'm actually quite chuffed with that.

Last Saturday was a bit of a mixed bag - I got Ljungskile v Osters completely wrong (Osters won 2-1) but one of the advantages of the betting exchanges is that I was able to totally reverse position and at half time I backed an Osters win...so when Robin Iglicar of Ljungskile got a goal back with twenty five minutes left, I was left hoping that the home team wouldn't come back for a draw.

Haugesund drew 1-1 with Brann: Brann took the lead though and Haugesund equalised right on half time, which meant I closed the trade I proposed in the interval. Laying Molde at half time in their game at Aalesund proved to be the right decision but - remarkably - I also paid attention to my own advice and avoided getting involved with either goals or the final score. The game finished 0-0, so it would have been 'a large and very expensive trap' ;-)

I'm looking at another couple of Scandinavian games this afternoon: Valerenga to beat Kongsvinger in the Norwegian Eliteserien and HJK Helsinki to win their game against KuPS in the Finnish Veikkausliiga. Significantly, both Valerenga and HJK are unbeaten at home this season and neither have been behind at half time, so that's the direction I've gone in. There are a few games on Sunday that could be worth a look so I'm going to do just that in a moment: I'm probably also going to be backing the St. Louis Cardinals to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers later on, but before committing to that game I want to see how the football goes.

Lastly, I've had a tremendous run with my horse racing lays - the last three I've backed not to win have gone on to do exactly that. Good job I put insurance bets on them...

...And Then There Were Two

The World Cup Final on Sunday will be played between the Netherlands and Spain, which is what I was expecting...although I decided not to invest in that opportunity as I've been ignoring one of my golden rules, which is not to get involved in individual cup games. Tournaments - and tournaments from the quarter finals onwards in particular - are another matter. I'll have an official opinion before the game takes place ;-)

There are a couple of games in Scandinavia on Saturday that might be worth a look including two potentially profitable trading opportunities. In the Superettan (the second tier of Swedish football) Ljungskile take on Osters on Saturday afternoon. Ljungskile haven't lost at home this season and have only conceded two goals in seven games at home - and both of those were in the second half. Newly promoted Osters are struggling to find their feet: they've lost their last three games without scoring a goal. I'm going to take the Ljungskile win and would tentatively recommend under 2.5 goals, based on the excellent defensive record of the home side and Osters' lack of firepower.

The trading opportunities are games in neighbouring Norway.

410 miles east of Ljungskile, Haugesund play SK Brann in the Norwegian Tippeligaen. Haugesund were promoted to the top level of Norwegian football last season after a decade outside it and have made a really impressive start to the season at home. In fact they haven't lost at home since 28th June 2009 - a seventeen game unbeaten run in the league - which is a good indication of how good they are; at home they've continued the form that won them promotion. Opponents Brann are not doing so well - one win in seven away games (at relegation threatened Kongsvinger last Sunday) but have a good historical record against Haugesund, even though they last travelled to western Norway in July 2000!

I definitely think there's some value in backing Haugesund pre-match. The odds compilers - rightly - have factored in Haugesund's long absence from the top division into their prices so what we're looking at now is how likely it is that Haugesund might take the lead. The good news is that they tend to score early - an average of 14 minutes but with 60% of their goals coming in the first five minutes - and so the sequence of events we really want is that we back Haugesund before kick off, hope they score early and then close the trade. Or if you're me, think that the game is going to be walk in the park for the team that scores first and then get annoyed when the underdogs equalize ;-)

The other game is less clear despite being an automatic as far as my system is concerned. There's no doubt that Aalesund are a difficult team to beat at their Color Line Stadium and their opponents this weekend (Molde) have lost nine of their last 13 away league games. My numbers suggest that there's about a 75% chance of Molde not winning, but Aalesund have a poor record when Molde come to town so it's worth trying to think outside the box. A potential angle is the half time score - Aalesund haven't trailed at home after the first half this season and Molde haven't won away yet. So it might be worth looking at laying Molde at half time - currently 4.4 on Betfair, but very underexposed at the moment.

The other markets that might be worth looking at in this game is Over 2.5 goals (53% of all Tippeligaen games so far this season have been over 2.5) and laying 0-0. In Aalesund's last 20 league homes and Molde's last 20 league aways there have been no 0-0 draws - which could either be an opportunity or a very large and expensive trap - and very few clean sheets.

Right, I'm off to get stuck into some of those markets and I'll probably be back at some point on Saturday. I've also been working on my predictions for the major European leagues and the NFL recently and I'll definitely get those posted before the end of the month.

Update, Friday afternoon: Sporting Index' goal expectation for Aalesund v Molde is 3.2 and Haugesund are better than even favourites to score first.