Weekend Football Betting Tips

Seems a bit odd that I've not posted for almost a week, but unfortunately I had to attend a funeral on Tuesday and I've been catching up since I got back.

From next week onwards, I'll only be concentrating on Belgium, Croatia, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, adding in the Scandinavian leagues when they kick off. The Eliteserien in Norway starts on 19th March and then takes a two week break for some reason; the Allsvenskan starts on 2nd April but the Veikkausliiga fixtures haven't been released yet.

There are a couple of reasons for this:

1. Lots of information for the major leagues is available elsewhere. I highly recommend Racing & Football Outlook, which doesn't have an online presence per se but Alexander Deacon's website should give you a flavour of what to expect.

2. I'm involved in a new project that could have a substantial workload in the future, so cutting down on the amount of coverage makes sense - especially as it might include more analysis of Major League Soccer.

Here are the football tips for Saturday and Sunday, I should have a post ready for the NFL games before those games kick off. Home wins in bold, home banker in capitals.

Saturday
Championship
12:45pm
SWANSEA v Crystal Palace
Current top four are 5-3-1 against current bottom four when the top four are at home, probably a low scoring game as Swansea have shut out Scunthorpe and Preston at the Liberty Stadium this season and Swans home games are averaging 1.62 goals per game.


3:00pm
Watford v Derby
Both teams to score, which has happened in six of the last ten games between these two at Vicarage Road. Seven of the home nine games Watford have played against teams below them this season have featured goals from both sides.


Nottingham Forest v Portsmouth
Pompey have won the last two league games at the City Ground and Forest's 31 game undefeated regular season home streak will be snapped at some point...just probably not this weekend. Watford and Cardiff visit next month.


Premiership
3:00pm
Chelsea v Blackburn
Chelsea are already to short to risk backing if they don't win, so there's something to be said about keeping an eye on the both teams to score price - although Blackburn have scored precisely two goals in the last six league games at Stamford Bridge, Rovers have scored in nine of their 11 games in the Premiership this season and that includes games at both Manchester clubs. Chelsea have kept one clean sheet in their last four home league games (against Bolton): their run of nine consecutive shut outs at the end of last season and the beginning of this one is fading quickly in the rear view mirror.


Manchester City v Wolves
Avoid the win market as Wolves' record at City isn't that bad at all over the years. Far more interesting is the over/under 2.5 goals price - there have only been four games with over 2.5 goals in the 11 games at Eastlands in the Premiership this season. 50% of Wolves' away games have been under 2.5 goals, including low scoring games at Chelsea and Liverpool.  Having said that, I'm not completely convinced that the goal line is as clear cut as it could be: City to keep a clean sheet and/or both teams not to score look like decent alternatives.

Spain
5:00pm
Villareal  v Osasuna

Just about value, although there are some obvious trap elements - Villareal haven't lost at home, Osasuna haven't won away and the hosts haven't actually beaten Osasuna at home in a league game since January 2006 (two draws and a defeat since then)


Spain
7:00pm
Athletic Bilbao v Racing Santander

Oppose Racing - there are some slight trap elements here as Athletic haven't drawn at home this season in the league and three of the last five meetings in the league in Bilbao have been tied. Racing are on a mini unbeaten streak (two games) after snapping a five game losing run at the start of December.

France

8:00pm
Auxerre v Monaco
Oppose Monaco. Although Auxerre's price is tempting, they are the draw specialists in Ligue 1 (11 overall, five at home) and with Monaco having drawn five of their nine away league games this season then a draw cannot be ruled out at all.


PSG v Sochaux
If you can find PSG over 1.50 on Saturday morning take them.

Portugal
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v Pacos de Ferreira
Under 2.5 goals - Sporting haven't scored more than two goals at home all season and Pacos have only been involved in two away games where there have been more than two goals - Benfica beat the visitors 2-0 at the Stade de Luz earlier in the season and that's the kind of scoreline you can expect from Sporting.


SUNDAY
Premiership
12:00pm
Watching Brief
Sunderland v Newcastle

I wasn't expecting this at all when I started research this game - Sunderland's home league record against Newcastle is appalling. Four wins in 20 games going back to January 1966, five Newcastle wins in the last ten league meetings and eight draws in the last fifteen games. If the form book is supposed to go out of the window in local derbies, then Sunderland should win back to back home league games against Newcastle for the first time since the Beatles broke up. Oppose Newcastle, but I'm really tempted to say do it at your own risk - although being dumped out of the FA Cup by Notts County and the 5-1 defeat at Newcastle at the end of October should mean Steve Bruce doesn't have to motivate his side, Newcastle's record at Sunderland speaks for itself.

Greece
3:15pm
ARIS v Panionios
Apart from a defeat at home to Xanthi before Christmas, Aris had won four of their last six home games. Panionios haven't been doing that badly on their travels recently but have not won any of their last ten trips to Thessaloniki. A small side bet on the draw might also be worth it.

Portugal

4:00pm
Uniao de Leiria v Beira Mar
The continuing adventures of Uniao de Leiria aka the second most improved home team in Portugal this season (Olhanense are currently top of that table). This week they're up against away draw specialists Beira Mar but what the tables won't tell you is that the visitors are nicking points from teams that aren't as good as Leiria. Not only that, Beira Mar have had a couple of three game drawing streaks away from home in the league in the past and they usually lose the fourth game.


France
8:00pm
Marseille v Bordeaux

Oppose Bordeaux. They've won three of the last ten league meetings at the Velodrome, but Marseille have only won four of the other seven meetings and have won just four of their nine home games in 2010/2011. Bordeaux have only beaten Arles and Auxerre on the road this season, but that's not saying much.

Portugal
9:15pm
Academica v Benfica

A rare away win recommendation, but there's something of a revenge element in this game - Academica won at Benfica in the first game of the season but are struggling at home right now (one win in the last five league matches) and have lost at home to Porto and Sporting Lisbon so far. Benfica won at a canter at Leiria last weekend and should do so in Coimbra.

Free Tips For Sunday 19th December

After a good start to the weekend, things didn’t exactly go to plan yesterday – poor finishing by Bolton and Blackburn, good finishing by Rio Ave and a late goal from Sporting Gijon meant that I took a hit, which hasn’t helped by the games at Watford and Lokeren being postponed. Still running at a profit for December though, even if it's not as healthy as it was.



Here are today’s tips, let’s see what happens.

Spain
4:00pm
Osasuna v Real Zaragoza
Oppose Zaragoza, under 2.5 goals

Greece
5:30pm
Larisa v Olympiakos
Under 2.5 goals - big shock in Greece yesterday, Olympiacos Volos won at Panathinaikos, which was Pana's first home defeat this season.


France
8:00pm
Marseille v Lyon
The numbers suggest that Marseille could be ahead at half time but that Lyon could come back to earn a pont. Both teams to score looks as if it could take a lot of the guesswork out of the situation.

Portugal
8:15pm
Pacos de Ferriera v FC Porto
Under 2.5 goals - Porto have kept four clean sheets their six away games this season, notably at Rio Ave and Academica, who are about the same standard as Pacos. The visitors have not scored more than two goals in a league game since the end of last season.

Free Tips For Friday 17th and Saturday 18th December

Here are my tips for Friday and Saturday, it's looking as if the weather might have an impact again in the UK and Belgium so it's worth checking out if the games are still on. By far the best way of doing this is by looking at the official club websites as sometimes the odds comparison sites are a bit behind.

As usual, teams in bold represent the best chance of a straight win, teams in bold caps are what I consider to be home bankers.

FRIDAY
Championship
7:45pm
DONCASTER v Middlesbrough
Boro's dreadful away record is offset here by their recent successes in South Yorkshire: they've won the last three league meetings but have yet to win on the road against any team currently above them.

Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Academica


SATURDAY
Premiership
12:45pm
Sunderland v Bolton
Draw, under 2.5
0-0 or 1-1 correct score could be worth backing


3:00pm
Blackburn v West Ham
Blackburn should at least score, but Sam Allardyce's sacking casts something of a shadow over the proceedings.


Championship
3:00pm
Hull v Bristol City
Under 2.5 goals


Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Forest have won six of the last ten head to head in the Midlands and are unbeaten in home games against teams below them - Palace have lost six of eight away games against teams above them.


Watford v Preston postponed
Over 2.5 goals


Greece
3:15
Panionios v Asteras Tripolis
Under 2.5 goals - although caution here as the last three league games in the Athenian suburb of Nea Smyri have been decisively over 2.5 (average goals per game of four)...may not be value, so check the prices before parting with your cash.


Portugal
5:00pm
Benfica v Rio Ave
Benfica are another team where there's never any value in backing them at home, so a clean sheet for the Eagles might be worth a look. After a shock 1-2 home defeat by Academica on the opening day, they've kept six in a row. Rio Ave have scored in half of their away games but four of those five goals came against inferior opposition and they were shut out when they travelled to Sporting Lisbon earlier in October; Benfica have stopped them scoring in three of their last five league visits.


Spain
5pm
Deportivo La Coruna v Sporting Gijon


Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Cercle Bruges
Lokeren are easily the most improved team at home in the Jupiler League this season, although leaders Genk aren't far behind. Cercle are playing at about the same level as last season and lost this game 5-3 last season. POSTPONED


Zulte-Waregem v Westerlo
Over 2.5 goals
Zulte-Waregem have scored in nine of their ten home games this season, Westerlo in seven of their nine aways. Both teams to score is the cheaper alternative.


France
8:00pm
St Etienne v Arles
Oppose Arles - although St Etienne have only lost once at home this season, they haven't won at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in the league since mid September. Arles have drawn at Brest and Monaco and both those sides have drawn have the majority of their home games - just like St. Etienne. The hosts have scored in all of their home games in Ligue 1 this season.

Toulouse v Lorient
Under 2.5 goals

Free Soccer Betting Tips For Friday and Saturday

I've also got some pre-Christmas socialising to do this weekend, hence the early post.

The weather is still playing havoc across Europe and that's why I've got nothing for Portugal - the last round of games is scheduled to finish this afternoon, but even that far south the wind is causing problems and it'll be worth checking to see if some of the northern European games are still on before parting with your cash.

Both the Hungarian and Croatian leagues have gone into hibernation and won't be back until February, but I've done some research into both of them are there are some very strong trends to exploit when they resume at the end of February.

Gent would have been my home banker selection on Saturday, but there's next to no value in the win market. So teams in bold represent the best chances of home wins; Sunday tips will be up either tomorrow or Friday and I'm going to have an depth look at Manchester United v Arsenal as well.

FRIDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
7:45pm
Swansea v Millwall under 2.5 goals

SATURDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm
Burnley v Leeds over 2.5 goals
Reading v Coventry


GREECE
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Aris Salonika under 2.5 goals
Aris could be the most boring side in Europe at the moment. There's only been one goal in every one of their six away games.

5:30pm
PAOK v Iraklis half time draw


FRANCE
6:00pm
Lorient v Lens
Draw/Lorient might work in this game, but any way to oppose Lens looks more likely to pay off. The visitors have not been ahead at half time in any of their seven away games in Ligue 1 this season, Lorient have only been behind once in their eight home games but have been level in four of them. Additionally, Lorient have won the last three league games between these two at the Stade de Moustoir.

Valenciennes v PSG
Draw. Two of the last four league games on the Belgian border have been draws and the hosts have drawn recent games with Lille and St. Etienne. PSG are on a three game away drawing streak,  and their away record is similar to that of QPR.


BELGIUM
7:00pm
Gent v Charleroi
Gent should win this at a canter, but there's absolutely no value here apart from in the over 2.5 goals market.

Cercle Brugge v Zulte Waregem
Although Cercle Brugge's home record is superior to Zulte's away record, the visitors have only lost one of their last six league games at the Jan Breydel stadium and they're the draw specialists in the Jupiler League this season. Although Cercle could win this, there's value to be had on a draw at half time with 0-0 as a possible correct score after 45 minutes.