Late Goals May Be Key To Man U v Arsenal

First of all, although I'll be watching Manchester United v Arsenal I'm not going to get involved - especially as Valencia v Osasuna offers more clear cut opportunities. There's nothing wrong with writing a preview though.

This is easily Manchester United's toughest home game in the Premiership so far this season. Based on Friday's table they've only played one other top five team at home in 2010/11 (Spurs) and the average position of their opponents is thirteenth. Arsenal have had a slightly easier away schedule despite playing at Chelsea and Manchester City.


United should be about evens for the win - they've won seven of their eight home games in the Prem this season and have beaten Arsenal in six of the last ten league meetings at Old Trafford. The Gunners didn't get off to a great start away from the Emirates (four points from 12) but have won their last four consecutive away games.


Unfortunately for the outright markets, that's where any interest ends. The current best prices on the draw no bet market are 4/9 for United and 2/1 for Arsenal: the double chance market isn't even worth considering.


A couple of facts about the goals markets stand out immediately. Despite winning four of the last 20 meetings at United, Arsenal have failed to score more than one goal in the league at Old Trafford since November 1984, so if the Gunners stand any chance of picking three points up in the North West, they have to stop United from scoring.


And there's the rub. United have failed to score only once in the last 50 Premiership games (last December against Aston Villa) and even when they lose at home they score. Arsenal have won 'to nil' twice away from home this season, but beating a Manchester City team that played almost the entire game with ten men and a Wolves team that's clearly struggling doesn't exactly inspire confidence. To underline this point, Arsenal have taken the lead against United in two of the last three league meetings in the North West but only went on to win one of those games.


Looking at it the other way round, if Manchester United stop Arsenal from scoring they will at least earn a point. United have kept four clean sheets in the league this season but Newcastle, West Ham and Wigan don't have the same potential for goals that Arsenal do; nine different players have scored for Arsenal in their away games in the Premiership this season - Marouane Chamakh is the leading scorer with three.

I only usually look at goal times for big games and although I already knew that late goals were a feature of United's games, I was astonished when I took a close look at goal times in games featuring these teams this season. There have been a lot, although strangely enough only two of the late goals in Arsenal's games have had any affect on the result of the game: Pepe Reina's own goal in August meant that the Gunners gained a point at Anfield and a month later Darren Bent's equaliser for Sunderland meant Arsenal dropped rwo points. Since then late goals in Arsenal's away games have either been padding their lead or consolation goals for the opponents.

United's late goals in the Premiership at Old Trafford have a similar pattern - two decisive goals (Berbatov's winner against Liverpool and Park's winner against Wolves), one that made the game safe (Nani's ridiculous goal against Spurs) and one to make the score look one sided (Ryan Giggs against Newcastle).

Verdict: Arsenal probably won't win, but there are a lot of things to keep an eye out for. Will United concede a first half goal for the first time this season? Can Arsenal score two goals at Old Trafford for the first time in a quarter of a century? Will Howard Webb award a penalty or give anyone a red card?

Away from the Premier League, Valencia's game with Osasuna looks far more clear cut. The visitors have only picked up one point away from home this season, Valencia have won nine of the last ten league meetings between the two sides at the Mestalla and this looks like a low scoring game that Valencia should win, possibly keeping a clean sheet in doing so.