Monday Night Football 7th March

Staggering weekend - having tweaked some of the parameters in the total goals area, I hadn't expected to be so successful so quickly. Lots of games this week so let's see if I can keep it up.

Premier League
8:00pm
Blackpool v Chelsea
Chelsea are a silly price for the win so there's no point in backing them and as I think there should be a few goals in this one the main decision should be roughly how many.

Before going any further, I think it's only fair to point out the obvious traps in this game. Blackpool have won a lot of friends with their all out attacking style and as a consequence they've scored in every home league game this season - but at some point they're not going to score at Bloomfield Road and it might be this evening. Blackpool haven't kept a clean sheet at home all season - something they've done five times on their travels in 2010/11, which is better than Manchester United!

The implications from the information above are that 'both teams to score' and 'away clean sheet' are currently at a very competitive prices and 'home clean sheet' is hilariously bad. Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets in 14 away games in the Premier League this season although two of those came in the last three games...which is presumably the David Luiz factor at work.

Basically, I think the market that's best placed to produce a win is over 1.5 goals - taking traps into account, I can see this being a Chelsea win containing probably over 2.5 goals and maybe even both teams to score, but I'm not going to take the risk implied in the odds available for those markets. To recap, Chelsea's win price isn't worth bothering with, there'll be goals but how many depends on the Chelsea defence rather than the Blackpool attack and it could be fewer than expected.