I had to attend to some bits and pieces on Saturday - which is why this post is a bit late - but overall I was quite pleased with how things turned out.
I strongly suspect I was not the only person who got Spurs v Wigan completely wrong, but if Tottenham's defeat is anything to go by it might be worth looking at how they do in the Premiership games immediately after they've played in the Champions League. I'll add them to the calendar later on.
Frank Lampard should not take penalties for England or Chelsea and if he ever has kids he shouldn't be allowed to take them in any kind of Kids v Dads game either, unless the penalty spot is moved back another twelve yards and there's either no crossbar or it's 50 feet high. I thought Chelsea v Stoke wouldn't be 7-0 again but even if Lampard had scored it might still have turned out 2-0.
However...Ipswich, Sheffield United and Leyton Orient all won and Brighton finally managed to end the Walsall curse. I eventually went for Over 2.5 goals in the Manchester United v West Ham game and also did the same thing in the Bundesliga game between Wolfsburg and Mainz, which finished 3-4! It's definitely worth keeping an eye on Over 2.5 in all of Wolfsburg's home games in the Bundesliga and I'll put the numbers up the next time the Wolves are home after the international break as well as adding their home games to the calendar.
One lay to report now and possibly one for later: I don't think Paragon's Folly will win the 2.25 at Ripon. I'll update the post later if the second lay shows promise.
Who Are Ya?
- Mike Roberts
- Bristol, South West, United Kingdom
- Citizen of the UK, where gambling is legal.
Monday, 30 August 2010
Friday, 27 August 2010
Something For The Bank Holiday Weekend?
There are a few interesting opportunities this weekend, so rather than launch into a rant about how the weather is going to be dreadful I'll cut to the chase.
First of all two apparent no-brainers, although as I found out to my cost last season when they only beat Bolton 1-0, Chelsea don't always score a hatful against the poorer Premiership sides and I was quite surprised when the Blues hammered Stoke 7-0 towards the end of 2009/2010. Even though it looks as if Chelsea have started this season they way they finished the last one, I don't think that score is likely to happen again and there's compelling evidence that this game will have more than 2.5 goals. Here are the stats:
* 16 of Chelsea's last 20 home games in the Premiership have featured over 2.5 goals including eight of the last ten; Chelsea have scored in all of those games and there hasn't been a 0-0 in that sequence.
* 11 of Chelsea's last 20 home games against Stoke have featured over 2.5 goals, Chelsea have scored in eighteen of them and there's only been one 0-0 draw in that sequence.
Looks pretty solid to me, but despite the fact that they'll never win many style points, Stoke are no mugs and will have learned from last season's defeat.
It could be argued that Wigan's appalling record stems from last season's 9-1 hammering at Spurs and the Latics couldn't have come up against Tottenham at a worse time, especially as Peter Crouch now has the Champions League theme as his ring tone! In their twelve Premiership away games since that battering, Wigan have let in 33 goals (2.75 per game) so recommending over 2.5 goals in their game at Spurs isn't one of the toughest decisions I've ever made.
One thing that may be worth taking into account both in this game and in the Champions League is that since beating Wigan last season, Tottenham have only scored more than two goals in Premiership matches at White Hart Lane on two occasions as it's their home defensive record that's the foundation of their recent success - six clean sheets in the last ten home games in the Prem is pretty good. A 3-0 or 4-0 Spurs win might be the way to go here.
A couple of streaks in the Championship that are worth look: Bristol City haven't won at Ipswich since September 1978 and Preston haven't won at Sheffield United since November 1978. I've dutched Ipswich/draw and Sheffield United/draw, primarily because although City and Preston haven't won these games for a while, they are capable of drawing them.
League 1 provides a couple of headscratchers this weekend. I'd leave Brighton v Walsall alone because this is another example of the away side having a really strong record against the home team; Albion haven't beaten Walsall at home since March 1988 and this game has been played six times in the league on the South Coast since! No idea what's going to happen at the Withdean tomorrow, although I'll keep an eye on it.
I was surprised to see Leyton Orient at 5/4 to beat Exeter City because the Grecians haven't won at Brisbane Road since December 1995 and I've priced Leyton Orient at nearer 9/10 or evens. I may decide what to do with that one tomorrow morning, it might be worth either laying Exeter outright, dutching Orient/draw or just backing the hosts outright.
I haven't avoided Manchester United v West Ham, I just haven't got round to crunching the numbers yet but I've got an unexpected opportunity to do that today. I'll also have a look round the summer leagues and possibly a bit of racing and so I'll be back later with Part 2...
First of all two apparent no-brainers, although as I found out to my cost last season when they only beat Bolton 1-0, Chelsea don't always score a hatful against the poorer Premiership sides and I was quite surprised when the Blues hammered Stoke 7-0 towards the end of 2009/2010. Even though it looks as if Chelsea have started this season they way they finished the last one, I don't think that score is likely to happen again and there's compelling evidence that this game will have more than 2.5 goals. Here are the stats:
* 16 of Chelsea's last 20 home games in the Premiership have featured over 2.5 goals including eight of the last ten; Chelsea have scored in all of those games and there hasn't been a 0-0 in that sequence.
* 11 of Chelsea's last 20 home games against Stoke have featured over 2.5 goals, Chelsea have scored in eighteen of them and there's only been one 0-0 draw in that sequence.
Looks pretty solid to me, but despite the fact that they'll never win many style points, Stoke are no mugs and will have learned from last season's defeat.
It could be argued that Wigan's appalling record stems from last season's 9-1 hammering at Spurs and the Latics couldn't have come up against Tottenham at a worse time, especially as Peter Crouch now has the Champions League theme as his ring tone! In their twelve Premiership away games since that battering, Wigan have let in 33 goals (2.75 per game) so recommending over 2.5 goals in their game at Spurs isn't one of the toughest decisions I've ever made.
One thing that may be worth taking into account both in this game and in the Champions League is that since beating Wigan last season, Tottenham have only scored more than two goals in Premiership matches at White Hart Lane on two occasions as it's their home defensive record that's the foundation of their recent success - six clean sheets in the last ten home games in the Prem is pretty good. A 3-0 or 4-0 Spurs win might be the way to go here.
A couple of streaks in the Championship that are worth look: Bristol City haven't won at Ipswich since September 1978 and Preston haven't won at Sheffield United since November 1978. I've dutched Ipswich/draw and Sheffield United/draw, primarily because although City and Preston haven't won these games for a while, they are capable of drawing them.
League 1 provides a couple of headscratchers this weekend. I'd leave Brighton v Walsall alone because this is another example of the away side having a really strong record against the home team; Albion haven't beaten Walsall at home since March 1988 and this game has been played six times in the league on the South Coast since! No idea what's going to happen at the Withdean tomorrow, although I'll keep an eye on it.
I was surprised to see Leyton Orient at 5/4 to beat Exeter City because the Grecians haven't won at Brisbane Road since December 1995 and I've priced Leyton Orient at nearer 9/10 or evens. I may decide what to do with that one tomorrow morning, it might be worth either laying Exeter outright, dutching Orient/draw or just backing the hosts outright.
I haven't avoided Manchester United v West Ham, I just haven't got round to crunching the numbers yet but I've got an unexpected opportunity to do that today. I'll also have a look round the summer leagues and possibly a bit of racing and so I'll be back later with Part 2...
Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Landskrona 1, Angelholms 0
A very late goal by Fredrik Karlsson enabled Landskrona to jump into fourth place in the Superettan this evening, which meant a couple of extra quid - taking my Betfair profit for August up to £19.76 ($30).
And as luck would have it...Helsingborg entertain Trelleborg in the Allsvenskan tomorrow night and unfortunately there are no prizes for guessing what I'm going to suggest, although this is one of those games where you can more or less judge the outcome by how Trelleborg are doing at half time; it's also worth remembering that they've got the worst away record in the Allsvensken and have only won once in twelve games at the Olympia Stadium. Curiously though, the last three games between these two in Helsingborg have been draws.
And as luck would have it...Helsingborg entertain Trelleborg in the Allsvenskan tomorrow night and unfortunately there are no prizes for guessing what I'm going to suggest, although this is one of those games where you can more or less judge the outcome by how Trelleborg are doing at half time; it's also worth remembering that they've got the worst away record in the Allsvensken and have only won once in twelve games at the Olympia Stadium. Curiously though, the last three games between these two in Helsingborg have been draws.
Monday, 23 August 2010
Hat-Trick!
Not bad - despite Birmingham going a goal behind and Bristol City going two goals behind, all three tips from Friday came in.
Tomorrow's tip is more of the same. Landskrona v Angelholms is a game that both teams need to win to stand any chance of getting into the promotion play off place in the Swedish Superettan, which is a tight race - any one of ten teams are still in with a chance. Unlike some of my recent recommendations, I'm going to go for dutches for half time and full time. There's a 54.5% chance of a draw in this game at half time so Landskrona/draw is worth dutching as is Landskrona/draw at full time. Insurance is Angelholms to be ahead at half time and draw/Landskrona at full time - the latter might be a nice surprise if the game ends in a draw.
There are a few games in England and Scotland that are already on my radar for the coming weekend but they're still at research stage at the moment so I'll post any comments on them when I'm satisfied that they're worth investing in.
Friday, 20 August 2010
Something For The Weekend?
Sundsvall beat Ljungskile 3-2 last night: 2-0 up at half time, the home team increased their lead to 3-0 with about ten minutes left but then conceded two goals in a minute right at the end of the game, giving the impression that the game was far closer than it actually appeared to be.
Still, it was the half time score that I was interested in and that paid off so I'm not complaining; Norkopping and Ljungskile now have a nine point lead at the top of the Superettan and (to use a robust cliche that has stood the test of time) this looks like it could be a two horse race that goes right down to the wire.
There are a few interesting games over the weekend, I'm not going to go into great amounts of detail but the following positions may be worth either taking or at least monitoring:
* Birmingham City to beat Blackburn, an alternative way of looking at this would be laying Blackburn (currently 3.8 on Betfair)
* Laying Barnsley, who travel to Bristol City in the nPower Championship. Barnsley haven't won there since 1993. The lay is available for 4.6 right now.
* Laying 0-0 between Leeds and Millwall in the nPower Championship - they've never been involved in a 0-0 draw and that's going back to 1931. However...there's always a first time and insurance is recommended, especially as the current lay price is 12.5; the best fixed odds for 0-0 is 10/1, with the current favourite correct score 1-1 at 7/1.
There are a couple of others that I will post if I get time, if not have a good weekend and happy hunting.
Still, it was the half time score that I was interested in and that paid off so I'm not complaining; Norkopping and Ljungskile now have a nine point lead at the top of the Superettan and (to use a robust cliche that has stood the test of time) this looks like it could be a two horse race that goes right down to the wire.
There are a few interesting games over the weekend, I'm not going to go into great amounts of detail but the following positions may be worth either taking or at least monitoring:
* Birmingham City to beat Blackburn, an alternative way of looking at this would be laying Blackburn (currently 3.8 on Betfair)
* Laying Barnsley, who travel to Bristol City in the nPower Championship. Barnsley haven't won there since 1993. The lay is available for 4.6 right now.
* Laying 0-0 between Leeds and Millwall in the nPower Championship - they've never been involved in a 0-0 draw and that's going back to 1931. However...there's always a first time and insurance is recommended, especially as the current lay price is 12.5; the best fixed odds for 0-0 is 10/1, with the current favourite correct score 1-1 at 7/1.
There are a couple of others that I will post if I get time, if not have a good weekend and happy hunting.
Wednesday, 18 August 2010
Norkopping Go Top In The Superettan
Norkopping 4, Vasby United 0: Norkopping were 2-0 up after twenty minutes.
Tomorrow night in the Superettan, GIF Sundsvall are playing Ljungskile and it's the usual advice: halftime will either be Sundsvall or a draw (Sundsvall haven't been behind at the half and there's a 60% chance of a draw after 45 minutes) so dutch that, then make the decision about the rest of the game during half time. However...the number of markets available for the Superettan is limited and I couldn't find a half time double chance price on Oddschecker so I'm on the trapeze without a net on this one. Perhaps that's taking the situation a bit far.
Had a flash of inspiration at lunch time...I'm thinking of putting some kind of Scandinavian football preview together over the winter, which may or may not be available as a PDF from this blog at some point next year.
Tomorrow night in the Superettan, GIF Sundsvall are playing Ljungskile and it's the usual advice: halftime will either be Sundsvall or a draw (Sundsvall haven't been behind at the half and there's a 60% chance of a draw after 45 minutes) so dutch that, then make the decision about the rest of the game during half time. However...the number of markets available for the Superettan is limited and I couldn't find a half time double chance price on Oddschecker so I'm on the trapeze without a net on this one. Perhaps that's taking the situation a bit far.
Had a flash of inspiration at lunch time...I'm thinking of putting some kind of Scandinavian football preview together over the winter, which may or may not be available as a PDF from this blog at some point next year.
Tuesday, 17 August 2010
Wise After The Event...Again!
Off to Sweden for the first time for a while: a classic top v bottom encounter when Norkopping take on Vasby United in the Superettan, which is the second tier of Swedish football. I need to find the umlauts in Verdana - both Norkopping and Vasby have them.
Norkopping are joint top with GIF Sundsvall with nine games left to play; the pair of them have a seven point lead over a pack of teams chasing the promotion playoff place. Vasby are currently in one of the two automatic relegation positions, two points ahead of Trollhatten but three points behind Osters.
And guess what? The game is not only a top v bottom game, but also a Norkopping/draw half time dutching opportunity - even down to Vasby not having been in the lead at half time away from home this season. Interestingly enough though, I'm not sure that I'm going to recycle the money if the dutch wins as a Norkopping win doesn't hold much value at all - I've priced them up at 1.67 (about 4/6) favourites which is nowhere near the 1.33 (1/3) that a lot of the bookies have them at.
Tuesday night's games were interesting - Bohemians beat Bray as predicted, but only by 2-0. Missed opportunities for under 2.5 and a Bohemians clean sheet? Possibly, but it shows that bookies are fallible and there's a certain amount of (unpaid) satisfaction in that. Cambridge United drew 2-2 with Crawley: all four goals came in the first half an hour. The draw was available for 3.4 (12/5) but I'd priced it at evens; very much food for thought for later in the season.
The Champions League games were close - and I'll be keeping a close eye on Rosenborg's game at FC Copenhagen next week to see if the Norwegians qualify for the group stages, which will be played at the same time as the Eliteserien comes to a climax.
I've got some watching brief games in England and Scotland for the weekend, as I'm not going to be around for them (I've got a birthday bash to attend) I'll post them with some reaction next week.
Norkopping are joint top with GIF Sundsvall with nine games left to play; the pair of them have a seven point lead over a pack of teams chasing the promotion playoff place. Vasby are currently in one of the two automatic relegation positions, two points ahead of Trollhatten but three points behind Osters.
And guess what? The game is not only a top v bottom game, but also a Norkopping/draw half time dutching opportunity - even down to Vasby not having been in the lead at half time away from home this season. Interestingly enough though, I'm not sure that I'm going to recycle the money if the dutch wins as a Norkopping win doesn't hold much value at all - I've priced them up at 1.67 (about 4/6) favourites which is nowhere near the 1.33 (1/3) that a lot of the bookies have them at.
Tuesday night's games were interesting - Bohemians beat Bray as predicted, but only by 2-0. Missed opportunities for under 2.5 and a Bohemians clean sheet? Possibly, but it shows that bookies are fallible and there's a certain amount of (unpaid) satisfaction in that. Cambridge United drew 2-2 with Crawley: all four goals came in the first half an hour. The draw was available for 3.4 (12/5) but I'd priced it at evens; very much food for thought for later in the season.
The Champions League games were close - and I'll be keeping a close eye on Rosenborg's game at FC Copenhagen next week to see if the Norwegians qualify for the group stages, which will be played at the same time as the Eliteserien comes to a climax.
I've got some watching brief games in England and Scotland for the weekend, as I'm not going to be around for them (I've got a birthday bash to attend) I'll post them with some reaction next week.
Decisions, Decisions...
While everyone else is looking at the Champions League Play Offs, I was originally going to be looking at Bohemians v Bray Wanderers in the Airtricity Irish Premiership.
Bohemians are heavy favourites at 1.22 despite their recent home form being a bit inconsistent (3-5-2); Bray's price is currently somewhere between 15 and 19.5 which appears to be driven by Bray's awful record at Dalymount Park (two wins in the last fifteen games there - including the corresponding game last season); they've also lost six of their last ten away games.
Having said that...the trade potential is in the goals, or rather the lack of them. I don't think there will be that many, which is at odds (excuse the pun) with this morning's prices but even this looks like a punt due to Bray's poor defensive record - on the other hand, there's a reasonable chance that Bohemians could keep a clean sheet.
It's actually quite hard to see much value from any angle (apart from a Bray win) so despite ticking nearly all of the boxes for a system game, I'm going to leave this game alone. As I've said before, the best way to save money in the long run is not to get involved: there will always be other games with better prospects.
I bought the Racing & Football Outlook Football Guide 2010/11 at lunchtime (which at £6.99 - $11 or so - is a no brainer) and Cambridge United v Crawley Town looks like the kind of game I'd be interested in if it was later in the season as I think Cambridge United might represent good value at 2.5 (6/4). Watching brief for that one though as it's too early.
Bohemians are heavy favourites at 1.22 despite their recent home form being a bit inconsistent (3-5-2); Bray's price is currently somewhere between 15 and 19.5 which appears to be driven by Bray's awful record at Dalymount Park (two wins in the last fifteen games there - including the corresponding game last season); they've also lost six of their last ten away games.
Having said that...the trade potential is in the goals, or rather the lack of them. I don't think there will be that many, which is at odds (excuse the pun) with this morning's prices but even this looks like a punt due to Bray's poor defensive record - on the other hand, there's a reasonable chance that Bohemians could keep a clean sheet.
It's actually quite hard to see much value from any angle (apart from a Bray win) so despite ticking nearly all of the boxes for a system game, I'm going to leave this game alone. As I've said before, the best way to save money in the long run is not to get involved: there will always be other games with better prospects.
I bought the Racing & Football Outlook Football Guide 2010/11 at lunchtime (which at £6.99 - $11 or so - is a no brainer) and Cambridge United v Crawley Town looks like the kind of game I'd be interested in if it was later in the season as I think Cambridge United might represent good value at 2.5 (6/4). Watching brief for that one though as it's too early.
Monday, 16 August 2010
The Calendar...
I'm currently trying to add a calendar to the blog but it's proving interesting to say the least - it's at the bottom of the page but it currently takes up far too much space.
When I'm happy with it I'll add some more data - anything that can help with being more organised is a blessing.
When I'm happy with it I'll add some more data - anything that can help with being more organised is a blessing.
Sunday, 15 August 2010
Small Stakes, Big Fun
I made a total profit on Betfair for the week of £3.48 over the last seven days, not bad considering I only tanked on two bets, both of which happened yesterday - neither Shimizu S-Pulse or Zenit St. Petersburg won their games - the Zenit game was a mistake on my part (I should have dutched win/draw) but I thought Shimizu were good for an outright win.
Having said that, the insurance bets I placed over the past week showed a profit of £2.36 so the overall profit figure was £5.84. I also had a punt on a whim (Billy Sharp anytime goalscorer for Doncaster Rovers v. Bristol City) which came in spectacularly when Sharp scored a late equaliser from the penalty spot but I'm not going to count that one as it was a gut reaction that wasn't based on planning and organisation. Oh and winning the same bet last year.
The next decision is what to do with the cash. To be honest, £5.84 won't even buy you a couple of pints or a packet of cigarettes these days so the wisest choice is to re-invest it; I've opened trading positions on the Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1 and the Premiership but I'm not really going to take much notice of what's happening with individual leagues right now.
Talking of the Premiership, my wife bought me 'The Premier Football Betting Handbook 2010/11' by Matt Finnigan and Pete Nordsted for my birthday and even though I've not had much time to get stuck into it, based on having read the book they wrote about World Cup betting and Mr. Nordsted's book 'Mastering Betfair' I would thoroughly recommend it. I kept an eye on some of the advice they recommend during yesterday's Premiership games and there were a couple that looked very promising that came up trumps. I personally think that it's far too early to get involved with individual games in either the Premiership or the Football League at the moment, but that's purely because of the way my system works. In any case, it's fun keeping an eye on how competitions develop before getting involved with them - there are plenty of opportunities in the summer leagues, although they've been few and far between over the last couple of days.
A couple of dates for the diary: the draws for the group stages of both the Champions League and the Europa League take place on consecutive days at the end of the month - UCL draw is on August 26th and the Europa League draw is the following day.
I've also modified my horse laying system a little and that seems to be working, but once again I'm not thinking of posting any recommendations until they start showing a profit. There won't be any football recommendations tomorrow but there may be a racing one; I'm off to do investigate that now.
Having said that, the insurance bets I placed over the past week showed a profit of £2.36 so the overall profit figure was £5.84. I also had a punt on a whim (Billy Sharp anytime goalscorer for Doncaster Rovers v. Bristol City) which came in spectacularly when Sharp scored a late equaliser from the penalty spot but I'm not going to count that one as it was a gut reaction that wasn't based on planning and organisation. Oh and winning the same bet last year.
The next decision is what to do with the cash. To be honest, £5.84 won't even buy you a couple of pints or a packet of cigarettes these days so the wisest choice is to re-invest it; I've opened trading positions on the Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1 and the Premiership but I'm not really going to take much notice of what's happening with individual leagues right now.
Talking of the Premiership, my wife bought me 'The Premier Football Betting Handbook 2010/11' by Matt Finnigan and Pete Nordsted for my birthday and even though I've not had much time to get stuck into it, based on having read the book they wrote about World Cup betting and Mr. Nordsted's book 'Mastering Betfair' I would thoroughly recommend it. I kept an eye on some of the advice they recommend during yesterday's Premiership games and there were a couple that looked very promising that came up trumps. I personally think that it's far too early to get involved with individual games in either the Premiership or the Football League at the moment, but that's purely because of the way my system works. In any case, it's fun keeping an eye on how competitions develop before getting involved with them - there are plenty of opportunities in the summer leagues, although they've been few and far between over the last couple of days.
A couple of dates for the diary: the draws for the group stages of both the Champions League and the Europa League take place on consecutive days at the end of the month - UCL draw is on August 26th and the Europa League draw is the following day.
I've also modified my horse laying system a little and that seems to be working, but once again I'm not thinking of posting any recommendations until they start showing a profit. There won't be any football recommendations tomorrow but there may be a racing one; I'm off to do investigate that now.
Saturday, 14 August 2010
A Slow Week
International friendlies plus family and work commitments meant that last week was a bit of a holiday and despite the usual over excitement about the Premiership there's not really that much on offer on Saturday.
However, for early(ish) risers the J-League presents an opportunity but due to time constraints I'm just going to show what I'm going to do rather than present the logic behind it. Minimum stakes as usual for illustrative purposes.
Shimizu S-Pulse v Yokohama F-Marinos
Half time dutch on Betfair: back Shimizu £2.02 @ 2.66, the draw £2.36 @ 2.28 = £1 profit if either Shimizu are winning or there's a draw at half time.
Insurance bet: Draw or Yokohama to cover the Betfair liability of £4.38
Despite going behind to a very early goal, Shimizu equalised with ten minutes left in the first half. £3.18 profit.
Full time: back Shimizu on Betfair £2.00 @ 2.02 = £2.04 if Shimizu win.
Insurance bet: Draw or Yokohama to cover Betfair liability of £2 if Shimizu don't win.
Yokohama went on to win the game with a goal from former Celtic player Shunsuke Nakamura - so no overall gain.
There's a decent prospect in the Russian Premiership later on and I'll update this post when I've done some data mining.
Right, over to Russia for the game between Zenit St. Petersburg and Dinamo Moscow. Zenit lead the Russian Premier by seven points; Dynamo are in the bottom half of the table but as the dreadful old cliche goes 'are probably too good to go down'. The question is whether Dinamo are good enough to beat Zenit.
The first problem for Dinamo is that Zenit have lost once at home in the last 20 league games and are undefeated at the Petrovsky Stadium this season. Dinamo's away record isn't the worst I've seen recently but they haven't won away for seven games; the recent head to head record between the two in St. Petersburg isn't encouraging for Dinamo either - no wins in the last six. My first thought was to lay Dinamo outright but as the goal expectancy for this game is low and there's a really good chance of a draw at half time, I'm going to go down that route.
Half time dutch (Zenit/draw): 60p if successful, insurance is draw/Dinamo Moscow at bwin.
Full time: Zenit £1.22, insurance is draw/Dinamo Moscow...more later!
However, for early(ish) risers the J-League presents an opportunity but due to time constraints I'm just going to show what I'm going to do rather than present the logic behind it. Minimum stakes as usual for illustrative purposes.
Shimizu S-Pulse v Yokohama F-Marinos
Half time dutch on Betfair: back Shimizu £2.02 @ 2.66, the draw £2.36 @ 2.28 = £1 profit if either Shimizu are winning or there's a draw at half time.
Insurance bet: Draw or Yokohama to cover the Betfair liability of £4.38
Despite going behind to a very early goal, Shimizu equalised with ten minutes left in the first half. £3.18 profit.
Full time: back Shimizu on Betfair £2.00 @ 2.02 = £2.04 if Shimizu win.
Insurance bet: Draw or Yokohama to cover Betfair liability of £2 if Shimizu don't win.
Yokohama went on to win the game with a goal from former Celtic player Shunsuke Nakamura - so no overall gain.
There's a decent prospect in the Russian Premiership later on and I'll update this post when I've done some data mining.
Right, over to Russia for the game between Zenit St. Petersburg and Dinamo Moscow. Zenit lead the Russian Premier by seven points; Dynamo are in the bottom half of the table but as the dreadful old cliche goes 'are probably too good to go down'. The question is whether Dinamo are good enough to beat Zenit.
The first problem for Dinamo is that Zenit have lost once at home in the last 20 league games and are undefeated at the Petrovsky Stadium this season. Dinamo's away record isn't the worst I've seen recently but they haven't won away for seven games; the recent head to head record between the two in St. Petersburg isn't encouraging for Dinamo either - no wins in the last six. My first thought was to lay Dinamo outright but as the goal expectancy for this game is low and there's a really good chance of a draw at half time, I'm going to go down that route.
Half time dutch (Zenit/draw): 60p if successful, insurance is draw/Dinamo Moscow at bwin.
Full time: Zenit £1.22, insurance is draw/Dinamo Moscow...more later!
Monday, 9 August 2010
Sunday Roundup
Picked up a nice little profit: £4.06 ($6.48) on the Start v Brann game in the Norwegian Eliteserien. Start won 3-1 but also lead at half time - the stats before the game are useless now so I won't bother including them, let's just say they were the right fit even though there was another one of those weird head to head records.
Rosenborg now have a nine point lead in Norway - they won 3-1 at Sandefjord on Saturday and Valerenga lost 2-0 at Haugesund yesterday. There are ten games left to go, but after the games that will be played on Sunday 17th October I'll be leaving the Eliteserien alone as there'll be three weeks left and that's normally when results start getting weird. Not only that, the major European leagues will start generating possibilities.
Nothing worth looking at on Monday, but if I find anything over the next couple of days I'll let you know.
Rosenborg now have a nine point lead in Norway - they won 3-1 at Sandefjord on Saturday and Valerenga lost 2-0 at Haugesund yesterday. There are ten games left to go, but after the games that will be played on Sunday 17th October I'll be leaving the Eliteserien alone as there'll be three weeks left and that's normally when results start getting weird. Not only that, the major European leagues will start generating possibilities.
Nothing worth looking at on Monday, but if I find anything over the next couple of days I'll let you know.
Saturday, 7 August 2010
Major European Leagues 2010/2011
The major European leagues start this month and I've taken a look at the last 20 seasons for each of them to see if there are any patterns, trends or streaks. They're there if you look for them, but most of them have become 'Cold Wars' in the last two decades: if you're lucky, there might be more than two clubs involved in the race for honours at the end of the season but the only genuinely competitive contests I can see at the moment are in Italy and Turkey. Still, here's my provisional list with the logic behind the selections.
Netherlands (started last night): Ajax or PSV Eindhoven
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Ajax Best Price: 2.25 (Betfair)
85% of the winners of the Eredivisie have finished in the top three places the season before, which looks as if it’s good news for FC Twente,Ajax Wolfsburg
When my selections play each other: Ajax v PSV Eindhoven Sunday 21st November, the return is Sunday 27th February - both games may be on ESPN.
France (starts 7th August): Marseille or Lyon
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Lyon Best Price: 2.88 (Extrabet)
Lyon's streak of seven consecutive French titles was broken by Bordeaux 2008/09 and it looks as if Ligue 1 might be a showdown between Lyon and Didier Deschamps' resurgent Marseille side, who won their first title since the one they forfeited in 1992/1993. Lyon and Marseille have won 11 of the last 20 titles; Bordeaux and Auxerre - who last won Ligue 1 in 1995/96 - could make it competitive but Bordeaux will have to cope without Marouane Chamakh who has moved to Arsenal and former manager Laurent Blanc who has the thankless task of taking over the French national team.
When my selections play each other: December 18th Marseille v Lyon, return 7th May - four games before the end of the season.
Portugal (starts 13th August): Benfica or FC Porto
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Benfica Best Price: 2.1 (many)
Another league where repeat winners are likely - which might mean a record 33rd title for Benfica, although winning back to back championships isn't something they've done since the mid 1980s and the sale of Argentinian playmaker Angel De Maria to Real Madrid could have an impact. Runners up Sporting Braga achieved their best ever position in the league but could find the Champions League too much of a distraction; Andres Villas Boas' FC Porto are probably the biggest competition for Benfica.
When my selections play each other: FC Porto v Benfica November 7th, return April 3rd.
Premiership (starts 14th August): Manchester United or Chelsea
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Chelsea Best Price: 2.7 (Paddy Power)
Only five clubs have won the Premiership or equivalent in the last two decades: Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal have won eighteen of the last twenty. Arsenal haven't won anything in the last five seasons; Manchester City haven't won the title since 1968.
When my selections play each other: Chelsea v Man United 18th December, return May 14th - penultimate game of the season.
Turkey (starts 15th August): Galatasary or Besiktas
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Fenerbahce Best Price: 2.88 (Sporting Bet)
A pleasant surprise last year: Bursaspor won their first title and became only the second club outside Istanbul to win the Super Lig. They have a chance of winning a second title but Galatasaray and Besiktas (with new signings Guti and Ricardo Quaresma) might be the teams to watch; Fenerbahce cannot be completely discounted either, but the runners up in the previous season have only gone on to win the league once in the last two decades. Istanbul BB (often referred to a Buyuksehir on coupons) might be an extremely dark horse - both Bursaspor and Fenerbahce (2002/03) won the title after finishing sixth the season before.
When my selections play each other: Galatasaray v Besiktas 28th November, return 1st May.
Netherlands (started last night): Ajax or PSV Eindhoven
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Ajax Best Price: 2.25 (Betfair)
85% of the winners of the Eredivisie have finished in the top three places the season before, which looks as if it’s good news for FC Twente,
When my selections play each other: Ajax v PSV Eindhoven Sunday 21st November, the return is Sunday 27th February - both games may be on ESPN.
France (starts 7th August): Marseille or Lyon
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Lyon Best Price: 2.88 (Extrabet)
Lyon's streak of seven consecutive French titles was broken by Bordeaux 2008/09 and it looks as if Ligue 1 might be a showdown between Lyon and Didier Deschamps' resurgent Marseille side, who won their first title since the one they forfeited in 1992/1993. Lyon and Marseille have won 11 of the last 20 titles; Bordeaux and Auxerre - who last won Ligue 1 in 1995/96 - could make it competitive but Bordeaux will have to cope without Marouane Chamakh who has moved to Arsenal and former manager Laurent Blanc who has the thankless task of taking over the French national team.
When my selections play each other: December 18th Marseille v Lyon, return 7th May - four games before the end of the season.
Portugal (starts 13th August): Benfica or FC Porto
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Benfica Best Price: 2.1 (many)
Another league where repeat winners are likely - which might mean a record 33rd title for Benfica, although winning back to back championships isn't something they've done since the mid 1980s and the sale of Argentinian playmaker Angel De Maria to Real Madrid could have an impact. Runners up Sporting Braga achieved their best ever position in the league but could find the Champions League too much of a distraction; Andres Villas Boas' FC Porto are probably the biggest competition for Benfica.
When my selections play each other: FC Porto v Benfica November 7th, return April 3rd.
Premiership (starts 14th August): Manchester United or Chelsea
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Chelsea Best Price: 2.7 (Paddy Power)
Only five clubs have won the Premiership or equivalent in the last two decades: Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal have won eighteen of the last twenty. Arsenal haven't won anything in the last five seasons; Manchester City haven't won the title since 1968.
When my selections play each other: Chelsea v Man United 18th December, return May 14th - penultimate game of the season.
Turkey (starts 15th August): Galatasary or Besiktas
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Fenerbahce Best Price: 2.88 (Sporting Bet)
A pleasant surprise last year: Bursaspor won their first title and became only the second club outside Istanbul to win the Super Lig. They have a chance of winning a second title but Galatasaray and Besiktas (with new signings Guti and Ricardo Quaresma) might be the teams to watch; Fenerbahce cannot be completely discounted either, but the runners up in the previous season have only gone on to win the league once in the last two decades. Istanbul BB (often referred to a Buyuksehir on coupons) might be an extremely dark horse - both Bursaspor and Fenerbahce (2002/03) won the title after finishing sixth the season before.
When my selections play each other: Galatasaray v Besiktas 28th November, return 1st May.
Germany (starts 20th August): see if you can guess.
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Bayern Munich Best Price: 1.65 (bwin)
One horse race. Bayern Munich have won nine of the last 12 editions and although runners up in the Bundesliga have about a 25% chance of winning the title the following season, the last time Schalke won the title Buddy Holly was still alive and the Bundesliga didn't exist. Werder Bremen and Stuttgart might provide the competition this season: the last time Kaiserslautern were promoted as champions (1996/97) they went on to win the Bundesliga. Might be worth looking at Bundesliga without Bayern for some value, but I might leave that until a few games have been played.
Key fixtures: anything after the end of October.
Italy (starts 28th August): wait and see
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Internazionale Best Price: 2.1 (many)
There have been a few coaching changes amongst the favourites and I'm going to adopt a wait and see policy, although I'm not convinced that Inter will extend their streak of five consecutive titles and Milan and Roma could capitalize if Rafa Benitez' new team stumble. I'm going to advise against Juventus now - current lay price for the old lady to win the Scudetto on Betfair is 6.2.
Key fixtures: any between the teams mentioned above after the end of October.
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Bayern Munich Best Price: 1.65 (bwin)
One horse race. Bayern Munich have won nine of the last 12 editions and although runners up in the Bundesliga have about a 25% chance of winning the title the following season, the last time Schalke won the title Buddy Holly was still alive and the Bundesliga didn't exist. Werder Bremen and Stuttgart might provide the competition this season: the last time Kaiserslautern were promoted as champions (1996/97) they went on to win the Bundesliga. Might be worth looking at Bundesliga without Bayern for some value, but I might leave that until a few games have been played.
Key fixtures: anything after the end of October.
Italy (starts 28th August): wait and see
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Internazionale Best Price: 2.1 (many)
There have been a few coaching changes amongst the favourites and I'm going to adopt a wait and see policy, although I'm not convinced that Inter will extend their streak of five consecutive titles and Milan and Roma could capitalize if Rafa Benitez' new team stumble. I'm going to advise against Juventus now - current lay price for the old lady to win the Scudetto on Betfair is 6.2.
Key fixtures: any between the teams mentioned above after the end of October.
Spain (starts 28th August): Barcelona or Real Madrid
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Barcelona Best Price: 1.85 (bwin)
A genuine cold war but an intriguing one between Real Madrid or Barcelona. Barcelona are on a hat-trick of titles but that's not be done since they won four in a row between 1991 and 1994 and the weight of expectation on Jose Mourinho's shoulders will be massive. Waiting to see how the early form amongst the also rans shakes out and then looking at the 'Winner Without Barcelona or Real Madrid' market could be the way forward here: Getafe and Valencia might look good at that point.
When my selections play each other: Barcelona v Real Madrid, 28th November, return 17th April.
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Barcelona Best Price: 1.85 (bwin)
A genuine cold war but an intriguing one between Real Madrid or Barcelona. Barcelona are on a hat-trick of titles but that's not be done since they won four in a row between 1991 and 1994 and the weight of expectation on Jose Mourinho's shoulders will be massive. Waiting to see how the early form amongst the also rans shakes out and then looking at the 'Winner Without Barcelona or Real Madrid' market could be the way forward here: Getafe and Valencia might look good at that point.
When my selections play each other: Barcelona v Real Madrid, 28th November, return 17th April.
Thursday, 5 August 2010
Helsingborgs Remain Unbeaten...Just
Helsingborgs 3, Djurgardens 3: A very, very, very late equaliser by new signing Alexander Gerndt saved Helsingborgs' unbeaten home record. The goal not only completed his hat-trick but also saved me £16 ($25) as I was so confident that Helsingborgs wouldn't loose that I'd laid Djurgardens at 9.0.
Helsingborgs played the entire second half with ten men after Marcus Lantz was given a straight red following a two footed tackle on Djurgardens' Kennedy Igboananike, who had opened the scoring a couple of minutes earlier. Despite their nunerical disadvantage, Helsingborgs were leading 2-1 after 57 minutes - which is arguably where I should have traded out - however, the insurance was in place and I was going to let the bet ride when Gerndt scored his third.
Aftonbladet has clips from the game here, may be up on Youtube tomorrow.
Overall the last couple of days have been interesting to say the least - a 73p loss on Betfair which was offset somewhat by the 1p overall profit on the half time insurance bet of draw/Djurgardens. I spent more than that on my lunch today but arguably the most significant thing that's happened over the last couple of days is that I successfully laid Safari Guide at Kempton yesterday - so the bizarre July 'winning' streak was snapped at four and I'll be recommending some more lays when some worthwhile prospects come up.
Helsingborgs played the entire second half with ten men after Marcus Lantz was given a straight red following a two footed tackle on Djurgardens' Kennedy Igboananike, who had opened the scoring a couple of minutes earlier. Despite their nunerical disadvantage, Helsingborgs were leading 2-1 after 57 minutes - which is arguably where I should have traded out - however, the insurance was in place and I was going to let the bet ride when Gerndt scored his third.
Aftonbladet has clips from the game here, may be up on Youtube tomorrow.
Overall the last couple of days have been interesting to say the least - a 73p loss on Betfair which was offset somewhat by the 1p overall profit on the half time insurance bet of draw/Djurgardens. I spent more than that on my lunch today but arguably the most significant thing that's happened over the last couple of days is that I successfully laid Safari Guide at Kempton yesterday - so the bizarre July 'winning' streak was snapped at four and I'll be recommending some more lays when some worthwhile prospects come up.
Wednesday, 4 August 2010
If It's Thursday, It Must Be Helsingborg
Thursday evenings are now becoming synonymous with the Europa League, which has now got to the stage where I recognise the names of most of the teams left in it, although I've got to be honest and admit I know nothing about Qarabagh Agdam of Azerbaijan.
I know a little about Swedish football and I would imagine that current Allsvenskan leaders Helsingborgs would rather qualify for next season's Champions League rather than what used to the UEFA Cup. The club - know locally as the Milk Cows - can take a big step towards achieving that when they play Djurgardens tomorrow evening.
Helsingborgs' perfect home record this season probably won't be threatened by Djurgardens - who are currently just above the relegation zone - but as they only have to play one of the current top five clubs in their last seven home games (against Gefle on September 11th) there's a chance they may remain unbeaten. Djurgardens don't have a bad record at Helsingborgs (two wins in the last three league games) but given the hosts form I'd be surprised if the visitors get anything from the game.
The strategy I'm advocating won't be a huge surprise, although I'm currently thinking of a name to describe dutching the home team to either be winning or drawing at half time so I can have a snappy way to refer to it. Whatever it ends up being called, almost 80% of games in the Allsvenskan this season have seen the home team unbeaten at half time and I'm also going to recommend a Helsingborgs win, but goals may be few or far between in this game - on average there have been 2.27 goals per game in the Allsvenskan so far and neither of these teams have particularly prolific strikers at their disposal. Goal hotspots seem likely between 30 minutes and half plus the last ten minutes of the game so I'm tempted to try a couple of 'ten minute' cycles immediately after kick off. And if anyone's interested, my stopwatch is in the kitchen ;-)
Not sure how many articles I'll be able to post over the weekend as my mum is visiting, I'm going to see David James' first appearance for Bristol City on Saturday afternoon and Sunday is my wedding anniversary!
I know a little about Swedish football and I would imagine that current Allsvenskan leaders Helsingborgs would rather qualify for next season's Champions League rather than what used to the UEFA Cup. The club - know locally as the Milk Cows - can take a big step towards achieving that when they play Djurgardens tomorrow evening.
Helsingborgs' perfect home record this season probably won't be threatened by Djurgardens - who are currently just above the relegation zone - but as they only have to play one of the current top five clubs in their last seven home games (against Gefle on September 11th) there's a chance they may remain unbeaten. Djurgardens don't have a bad record at Helsingborgs (two wins in the last three league games) but given the hosts form I'd be surprised if the visitors get anything from the game.
The strategy I'm advocating won't be a huge surprise, although I'm currently thinking of a name to describe dutching the home team to either be winning or drawing at half time so I can have a snappy way to refer to it. Whatever it ends up being called, almost 80% of games in the Allsvenskan this season have seen the home team unbeaten at half time and I'm also going to recommend a Helsingborgs win, but goals may be few or far between in this game - on average there have been 2.27 goals per game in the Allsvenskan so far and neither of these teams have particularly prolific strikers at their disposal. Goal hotspots seem likely between 30 minutes and half plus the last ten minutes of the game so I'm tempted to try a couple of 'ten minute' cycles immediately after kick off. And if anyone's interested, my stopwatch is in the kitchen ;-)
Not sure how many articles I'll be able to post over the weekend as my mum is visiting, I'm going to see David James' first appearance for Bristol City on Saturday afternoon and Sunday is my wedding anniversary!
Tuesday, 3 August 2010
Abdellaoue Hat Trick As Valerenga Smash Start
Valerenga 8, Start 1: the visitors got off to a good...ummm...start when they scored in the 12th minute but it was all downhill from there.
I thought there'd be goals in this game, but I wasn't expecting nine! Mohammed Abdellaoue filled his boots with a hat trick and is now four goals ahead of former Spurs, Wolves and Valerenga striker Steffen Iversen (now with Rosenborg) in the leading goalscorer table: there are a few clips on YouTube showing what Abdellaoue is capable of and it he's that good I can't imagine him playing in Norway for much longer.
Bonus: here are the goals!
In Sweden, Trelleborg beat Halmstad 1-0 thanks to a goal from Mattias Adelstam twelve minutes from time - Trelleborg really were very good value for the win so I hope you benefitted from that one.
Yesterday's profit on Betfair: £3.51! I decided to invest some of the profit on one of the major European leagues - more of which later in the week.
I thought there'd be goals in this game, but I wasn't expecting nine! Mohammed Abdellaoue filled his boots with a hat trick and is now four goals ahead of former Spurs, Wolves and Valerenga striker Steffen Iversen (now with Rosenborg) in the leading goalscorer table: there are a few clips on YouTube showing what Abdellaoue is capable of and it he's that good I can't imagine him playing in Norway for much longer.
Bonus: here are the goals!
In Sweden, Trelleborg beat Halmstad 1-0 thanks to a goal from Mattias Adelstam twelve minutes from time - Trelleborg really were very good value for the win so I hope you benefitted from that one.
Yesterday's profit on Betfair: £3.51! I decided to invest some of the profit on one of the major European leagues - more of which later in the week.
Monday, 2 August 2010
Monday Night Football
Very quick post because one of the games this evening is worth a look because the odds are very weird: Trelleborg v Halmstad in the Swedish Allsvenskan satisfies my basic system requirements but the head to head statistics are freaky and have given the odds compilers a real headache.
The problem in a nutshell: Trelleborg have won just two of the last twelve meetings between these two at the Vangavallen Stadium (including the last one) and despite currently being below Halmstad in the league table they have a reasonably good home record - it's Trelleborg's away form that's appalling and their record away from home is slightly actually better than Halmstad's current away record.
Recommendations: the usual - Halmstad haven't lead at the half all season but as there's a 50% chance of a draw then dutching Trelleborgs/draw looks like the way forward. However, I would strongly recommend an insurance bet of draw/Halmstads. However, I'm also going to recommend a Trelleborg win on Betfair because Halmstad need to score to have any chance at all and they've only scored three goals in eight away games in the league season - the insurance bet here is draw or Halmstad, which should be available at a decent price before kickoff.
The other game is in the Norwegian Eliteserien and should be more straightforward. Valerenga have not lost at home this season and can move into second place with a win over Start this evening; Start have won their last two away games (against struggling Sandefjord and Molde, both of whom are beneath them) but have only won five of their last 20 road trips.
And guess what? Valerenga haven't been behind at half time. If you've been paying attention you know what to do, but as an added bonus tonight's game features the leading scorer in the Eliteserien, Mohammed Abdellaoue of Valerenga. He's scored 31% of their goals this season and is worth a punt for either first goal/anytime goalscorer, which is only available at bet365.
Right, got to go...have to put the money on!
The problem in a nutshell: Trelleborg have won just two of the last twelve meetings between these two at the Vangavallen Stadium (including the last one) and despite currently being below Halmstad in the league table they have a reasonably good home record - it's Trelleborg's away form that's appalling and their record away from home is slightly actually better than Halmstad's current away record.
Recommendations: the usual - Halmstad haven't lead at the half all season but as there's a 50% chance of a draw then dutching Trelleborgs/draw looks like the way forward. However, I would strongly recommend an insurance bet of draw/Halmstads. However, I'm also going to recommend a Trelleborg win on Betfair because Halmstad need to score to have any chance at all and they've only scored three goals in eight away games in the league season - the insurance bet here is draw or Halmstad, which should be available at a decent price before kickoff.
The other game is in the Norwegian Eliteserien and should be more straightforward. Valerenga have not lost at home this season and can move into second place with a win over Start this evening; Start have won their last two away games (against struggling Sandefjord and Molde, both of whom are beneath them) but have only won five of their last 20 road trips.
And guess what? Valerenga haven't been behind at half time. If you've been paying attention you know what to do, but as an added bonus tonight's game features the leading scorer in the Eliteserien, Mohammed Abdellaoue of Valerenga. He's scored 31% of their goals this season and is worth a punt for either first goal/anytime goalscorer, which is only available at bet365.
Right, got to go...have to put the money on!
Sunday Round Up
Malmo 1, GAIS 0: a 22nd minute goal from Ivo Pekalski put Malmo within two points of leaders Helsingborgs, who play this evening. Malmo's home streak continues - next home game is 14th August against struggling Gefle.
Viking 0, Sandefjord 0: Viking/half time dutch worked out OK, but Viking to win didn't; a good job I had an insurance bet on half time/Sandefjord - I picked up £5.58 (almost $9) on that. I also had one of bwin's two way specials on Sandefjord - if the game ends in a draw, then you get your stake back.
Tromso 3, Stabaek 0: another weird laptop intervention - my system hung just before kick off and when I managed to open the market there had already been a goal. George Mourad opened the scoring after four minutes but I actually managed to complete two cycles of the 'ten minute' strategy so it wasn't a write off by any means. I hadn't expected a 3-0 scoreline so it was a bit of a risk, but there were 61 minutes between the first and second goals - so that trade could have been executed six times.
St Louis Cardinals 9, Pittsburgh Pirates 1: it was too late to post this game as a recommendation yesterday, but what swung it for me was that Pittsburgh had lost 14 straight Sunday road games. Make that 15. Why is there no relegation in baseball? The Pirates would probably struggle in AAA ball.
Betfair profit for yesterday: £3.15 ($5 more or less). Remember, I'm currently trading at minimum stakes (£2 per bet - about $3.17), but even so that's basically a free bet.
I'm going to post this now, but I've got an unexpected afternoon off work and there are a couple of Monday games in Scandinavia that look promising.
Viking 0, Sandefjord 0: Viking/half time dutch worked out OK, but Viking to win didn't; a good job I had an insurance bet on half time/Sandefjord - I picked up £5.58 (almost $9) on that. I also had one of bwin's two way specials on Sandefjord - if the game ends in a draw, then you get your stake back.
Tromso 3, Stabaek 0: another weird laptop intervention - my system hung just before kick off and when I managed to open the market there had already been a goal. George Mourad opened the scoring after four minutes but I actually managed to complete two cycles of the 'ten minute' strategy so it wasn't a write off by any means. I hadn't expected a 3-0 scoreline so it was a bit of a risk, but there were 61 minutes between the first and second goals - so that trade could have been executed six times.
St Louis Cardinals 9, Pittsburgh Pirates 1: it was too late to post this game as a recommendation yesterday, but what swung it for me was that Pittsburgh had lost 14 straight Sunday road games. Make that 15. Why is there no relegation in baseball? The Pirates would probably struggle in AAA ball.
Betfair profit for yesterday: £3.15 ($5 more or less). Remember, I'm currently trading at minimum stakes (£2 per bet - about $3.17), but even so that's basically a free bet.
I'm going to post this now, but I've got an unexpected afternoon off work and there are a couple of Monday games in Scandinavia that look promising.
Sunday, 1 August 2010
Sunday In Scandinavia
I managed to get the original list of five games down to three, of which two look worthwhile and one needs some extra logic applied to it. But first of all, I have to admit to feeling immensely pleased with myself: Fluminense won 3-1 so yesterday couldn't really have gone any better.
Today's action kicks off at Malmo at 3:30 GMT where the hosts take on GAIS in the Allsvenskan. I could just cut and paste the next comments from some of the other previews I've written recently, but I'm going to write it again for the sake of emphasis: Malmo have not been trailing either at half time or at full time of any of their home games this season. GAIS haven't exactly been awful away from home (they have only lost four of their last ten away games in the Allsvenskan); that's a little different from the other part of the home win equation that's come up in the past couple of weeks and effectively reduces the chances that Malmo will win both halves. So - once again - it's a dutch on Malmo or draw for the first half, which looks like this:
Malmo £2.27@2.12 = £2.54 profit
The draw £2@2.4 = £2.80 profit
GAIS leading at half time = £4.27 loss
Dutch profit: 53p (which I can go wild with!), although the total return would be £5.87.
Insurance: draw or GAIS to at least cover the £4.27 loss - although if the game is a draw at half time then that bet is a good one too. That's exactly what happened with the Dynamo Moscow game yesterday.
However, even if the game is a draw at half time, I think there's enough evidence to point to a Malmo win - there's no time for reams of stats today so you'll have to trust me.
Malmo win £2 @ 1.52 = £1.04 profit, total return £3.04.
Draw or GAIS win: £2.00 loss
Insurance: draw or GAIS to cover the £2 loss.
The next couple of games are in Norway, both kick off at 5pm GMT. The most straightforward of the two is between Viking Stavanger and Sandefjord - the latter are rock bottom of the Eliteserien and have lost 12 of their last 20 away games. They satisfy one of the major requirements for a home win: Sandefjord have lead at half time or won away this season. You could lay Sandefjord to be behind at half time and lose the game, but the liabilities are large, so at the risk of being predictable I'm going to recommend exactly the same strategy as the Malmo v GAIS game above.
The last game is a tricky one. Tromso v Stabaek qualified for my basic system but on closer inspection this one of those games where the away side has an extremely good head to head record against the home team. In fact, Stabaek have won four of the last eight games in Tromso between the two and have drawn half of their away games in the Eliteserien this season. There's a reasonable possibility of a draw but at this point I normally look for what's least likely to happen in this game and in this case it's goals.
Tromso have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 games and have only let in more than one goal on one occasion in that period, so whichever way you look at it they have a strong defensive home record. The last four matches in the series at the Alfheim Stadium have been close - no more than one goal in those games - and despite there being 2.87 goals per game in the Eliteserien this season this game looks as if it might be under 2.5. Two ways forward here:
Lay Over 2.5 goals - £2 @ 2.1, which would mean a total liability of £4.10 if it turned into a goal fest but a profit of £2 if it didn't. This can be a good option if you're looking to trade as soon as a goal is scored but predicting when that might be is an art rather than a science.
Alternatively, lay Over 2.5 goals as soon as the game goes in play, wait ten minutes then back it whatever the price is. Then do the same thing again. Then stop and wait for a goal and repeat step one. This is what I'm going to do - so I need to find my stopwatch!
I'm going to look at some of today's baseball match ups now, but I'll update this post with what happened in the Scandinavian games later on. I'm also aware that I've not posted my major European soccer predictions yet, but there is still some research to be done.
Today's action kicks off at Malmo at 3:30 GMT where the hosts take on GAIS in the Allsvenskan. I could just cut and paste the next comments from some of the other previews I've written recently, but I'm going to write it again for the sake of emphasis: Malmo have not been trailing either at half time or at full time of any of their home games this season. GAIS haven't exactly been awful away from home (they have only lost four of their last ten away games in the Allsvenskan); that's a little different from the other part of the home win equation that's come up in the past couple of weeks and effectively reduces the chances that Malmo will win both halves. So - once again - it's a dutch on Malmo or draw for the first half, which looks like this:
Malmo £2.27@2.12 = £2.54 profit
The draw £2@2.4 = £2.80 profit
GAIS leading at half time = £4.27 loss
Dutch profit: 53p (which I can go wild with!), although the total return would be £5.87.
Insurance: draw or GAIS to at least cover the £4.27 loss - although if the game is a draw at half time then that bet is a good one too. That's exactly what happened with the Dynamo Moscow game yesterday.
However, even if the game is a draw at half time, I think there's enough evidence to point to a Malmo win - there's no time for reams of stats today so you'll have to trust me.
Malmo win £2 @ 1.52 = £1.04 profit, total return £3.04.
Draw or GAIS win: £2.00 loss
Insurance: draw or GAIS to cover the £2 loss.
The next couple of games are in Norway, both kick off at 5pm GMT. The most straightforward of the two is between Viking Stavanger and Sandefjord - the latter are rock bottom of the Eliteserien and have lost 12 of their last 20 away games. They satisfy one of the major requirements for a home win: Sandefjord have lead at half time or won away this season. You could lay Sandefjord to be behind at half time and lose the game, but the liabilities are large, so at the risk of being predictable I'm going to recommend exactly the same strategy as the Malmo v GAIS game above.
The last game is a tricky one. Tromso v Stabaek qualified for my basic system but on closer inspection this one of those games where the away side has an extremely good head to head record against the home team. In fact, Stabaek have won four of the last eight games in Tromso between the two and have drawn half of their away games in the Eliteserien this season. There's a reasonable possibility of a draw but at this point I normally look for what's least likely to happen in this game and in this case it's goals.
Tromso have kept 11 clean sheets in their last 20 games and have only let in more than one goal on one occasion in that period, so whichever way you look at it they have a strong defensive home record. The last four matches in the series at the Alfheim Stadium have been close - no more than one goal in those games - and despite there being 2.87 goals per game in the Eliteserien this season this game looks as if it might be under 2.5. Two ways forward here:
Lay Over 2.5 goals - £2 @ 2.1, which would mean a total liability of £4.10 if it turned into a goal fest but a profit of £2 if it didn't. This can be a good option if you're looking to trade as soon as a goal is scored but predicting when that might be is an art rather than a science.
Alternatively, lay Over 2.5 goals as soon as the game goes in play, wait ten minutes then back it whatever the price is. Then do the same thing again. Then stop and wait for a goal and repeat step one. This is what I'm going to do - so I need to find my stopwatch!
I'm going to look at some of today's baseball match ups now, but I'll update this post with what happened in the Scandinavian games later on. I'm also aware that I've not posted my major European soccer predictions yet, but there is still some research to be done.
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