Major European Leagues 2010/2011

The major European leagues start this month and I've taken a look at the last 20 seasons for each of them to see if there are any patterns, trends or streaks. They're there if you look for them, but most of them have become 'Cold Wars' in the last two decades: if you're lucky, there might be more than two clubs involved in the race for honours at the end of the season but the only genuinely competitive contests I can see at the moment are in Italy and Turkey. Still, here's my provisional list with the logic behind the selections.


Netherlands (started last night): Ajax or PSV Eindhoven
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Ajax Best Price: 2.25 (Betfair)


85% of the winners of the Eredivisie have finished in the top three places the season before, which looks as if it’s good news for FC Twente, Ajax and PSV. In reality, it’s probably only good news for the last two clubs. Following FC Twente's first ever title last season, manager Steve McLaren left for Wolfsburg and although his replacement – former Belgian goalkeeper Michel Preud’homme – won the Belgian title with Standard Liege in 2007/08, he might take a while to adjust to Dutch football. PSV had won four consecutive titles before AZ and  FC Twente won the last two editions so I think they've got a slight edge over Ajax - who fought hard to keep Martin Jol from leaving in the summer but may still lose their stars before the transfer deadline.
When my selections play each other: Ajax v PSV Eindhoven Sunday 21st November, the return is Sunday 27th February - both games may be on ESPN.


France (starts 7th August): Marseille or Lyon
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Lyon Best Price: 2.88 (Extrabet)


Lyon's streak of seven consecutive French titles was broken by Bordeaux 2008/09 and it looks as if Ligue 1 might be a showdown between Lyon and Didier Deschamps' resurgent Marseille side, who won their first title since the one they forfeited in 1992/1993. Lyon and Marseille have won 11 of the last 20 titles; Bordeaux and Auxerre - who last won Ligue 1 in 1995/96 - could make it competitive but Bordeaux will have to cope without Marouane Chamakh who has moved to Arsenal and former manager Laurent Blanc who has the thankless task of taking over the French national team.
When my selections play each other: December 18th Marseille v Lyon, return 7th May - four games before the end of the season.


Portugal (starts 13th August): Benfica or FC Porto
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Benfica Best Price: 2.1 (many)


Another league where repeat winners are likely - which might mean a record 33rd title for Benfica, although winning back to back championships isn't something they've done since the mid 1980s and the sale of Argentinian playmaker Angel De Maria to Real Madrid could have an impact. Runners up Sporting Braga achieved their best ever position in the league but could find the Champions League too much of a distraction; Andres Villas Boas' FC Porto are probably the biggest competition for Benfica.
When my selections play each other: FC Porto v Benfica November 7th, return April 3rd.


Premiership (starts 14th August): Manchester United or Chelsea
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Chelsea Best Price: 2.7 (Paddy Power)


Only five clubs have won the Premiership or equivalent in the last two decades: Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal have won eighteen of the last twenty. Arsenal haven't won anything in the last five seasons; Manchester City haven't won the title since 1968.
When my selections play each other: Chelsea v Man United 18th December, return May 14th - penultimate game of the season.


Turkey (starts 15th August): Galatasary or Besiktas
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Fenerbahce Best Price: 2.88 (Sporting Bet)


A pleasant surprise last year: Bursaspor won their first title and became only the second club outside Istanbul to win the Super Lig. They have a chance of winning a second title but Galatasaray and Besiktas (with new signings Guti and Ricardo Quaresma) might be the teams to watch; Fenerbahce cannot be completely discounted either, but the runners up in the previous season have only gone on to win the league once in the last two decades. Istanbul BB (often referred to a Buyuksehir on coupons) might be an extremely dark horse - both Bursaspor and Fenerbahce (2002/03) won the title after finishing sixth the season before.
When my selections play each other: Galatasaray v Besiktas 28th November, return 1st May.

Germany (starts 20th August): see if you can guess.
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Bayern Munich Best Price: 1.65 (bwin)


One horse race. Bayern Munich have won nine of the last 12 editions and although runners up in the Bundesliga have about a 25% chance of winning the title the following season, the last time Schalke won the title Buddy Holly was still alive and the Bundesliga didn't exist. Werder Bremen and Stuttgart might provide the competition this season: the last time Kaiserslautern were promoted as champions (1996/97) they went on to win the Bundesliga. Might be worth looking at Bundesliga without Bayern for some value, but I might leave that until a few games have been played.
Key fixtures: anything after the end of October.


Italy (starts 28th August): wait and see
Bookies favourites at time of posting: Internazionale Best Price: 2.1 (many)


There have been a few coaching changes amongst the favourites and I'm going to adopt a wait and see policy, although I'm not convinced that Inter will extend their streak of five consecutive titles and Milan and Roma could capitalize if Rafa Benitez' new team stumble. I'm going to advise against Juventus now - current lay price for the old lady to win the Scudetto on Betfair is 6.2.


Key fixtures: any between the teams mentioned above after the end of October.

Spain (starts 28th August): Barcelona or Real Madrid


Bookies favourites at time of posting: Barcelona Best Price: 1.85 (bwin)


A genuine cold war but an intriguing one between Real Madrid or Barcelona. Barcelona are on a hat-trick of titles but that's not be done since they won four in a row between 1991 and 1994 and the weight of expectation on Jose Mourinho's shoulders will be massive. Waiting to see how the early form amongst the also rans shakes out and then looking at the 'Winner Without Barcelona or Real Madrid' market could be the way forward here: Getafe and Valencia might look good at that point.


When my selections play each other: Barcelona v Real Madrid, 28th November, return 17th April.