Happy New Year

Haven't had much time to post over Christmas (which has been a bit of an eye opener to say the least) so in case I don't post anything between today and New Year's Eve I'll wish anyone reading a profitable 2011.

Late Porto Goals Ruin Sunday

Three out of four yesterday, but here comes the bad beat story - why the hell did Porto feel they had to score twice in injury time in a game they'd already won is beyond me.

Anway, no use crying over spilled milk so on we go. Funniest thing I've seen so far this week was this incident from the Larisa/Olympiakos game from yesterday, The Olympiakos player reacting as if he'd been hit by a sniper is Vasilis Torisidis.




Portugal

7:45pm
Vitoria Guimaraes v Sporting Lisbon
Can't see much of a chance of a home win here (Guimaraes have lost four of the five games when Sporting have visited) and there might not be many goals either. Opposing Guimaraes is the play though and if Sporting win there's a good chance there'll be more than 2.5 goals - 12 of the 13 games they've picked up away from home have come in games where there have been more than that.



Premiership
8:00pm
Manchester City v Everton
The Toffees have won four of the last six meetings in the Prem at Manchester City and although I don't think they've got the quality to win tonight, that kind of record can't be discounted so it might be worth looking elsewhere. Six of the last ten league meetings in Manchester have been under 2.5 goals; City's home defensive record is currently one of the best in the division (five clean sheets in eight games) and six of Everton's eight away games have been under 2.5 goals; they held Chelsea to a draw in their last road trip.

Free Tips For Sunday 19th December

After a good start to the weekend, things didn’t exactly go to plan yesterday – poor finishing by Bolton and Blackburn, good finishing by Rio Ave and a late goal from Sporting Gijon meant that I took a hit, which hasn’t helped by the games at Watford and Lokeren being postponed. Still running at a profit for December though, even if it's not as healthy as it was.



Here are today’s tips, let’s see what happens.

Spain
4:00pm
Osasuna v Real Zaragoza
Oppose Zaragoza, under 2.5 goals

Greece
5:30pm
Larisa v Olympiakos
Under 2.5 goals - big shock in Greece yesterday, Olympiacos Volos won at Panathinaikos, which was Pana's first home defeat this season.


France
8:00pm
Marseille v Lyon
The numbers suggest that Marseille could be ahead at half time but that Lyon could come back to earn a pont. Both teams to score looks as if it could take a lot of the guesswork out of the situation.

Portugal
8:15pm
Pacos de Ferriera v FC Porto
Under 2.5 goals - Porto have kept four clean sheets their six away games this season, notably at Rio Ave and Academica, who are about the same standard as Pacos. The visitors have not scored more than two goals in a league game since the end of last season.

Free Tips For Friday 17th and Saturday 18th December

Here are my tips for Friday and Saturday, it's looking as if the weather might have an impact again in the UK and Belgium so it's worth checking out if the games are still on. By far the best way of doing this is by looking at the official club websites as sometimes the odds comparison sites are a bit behind.

As usual, teams in bold represent the best chance of a straight win, teams in bold caps are what I consider to be home bankers.

FRIDAY
Championship
7:45pm
DONCASTER v Middlesbrough
Boro's dreadful away record is offset here by their recent successes in South Yorkshire: they've won the last three league meetings but have yet to win on the road against any team currently above them.

Portugal
8:15pm
Sporting Braga v Academica


SATURDAY
Premiership
12:45pm
Sunderland v Bolton
Draw, under 2.5
0-0 or 1-1 correct score could be worth backing


3:00pm
Blackburn v West Ham
Blackburn should at least score, but Sam Allardyce's sacking casts something of a shadow over the proceedings.


Championship
3:00pm
Hull v Bristol City
Under 2.5 goals


Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Forest have won six of the last ten head to head in the Midlands and are unbeaten in home games against teams below them - Palace have lost six of eight away games against teams above them.


Watford v Preston postponed
Over 2.5 goals


Greece
3:15
Panionios v Asteras Tripolis
Under 2.5 goals - although caution here as the last three league games in the Athenian suburb of Nea Smyri have been decisively over 2.5 (average goals per game of four)...may not be value, so check the prices before parting with your cash.


Portugal
5:00pm
Benfica v Rio Ave
Benfica are another team where there's never any value in backing them at home, so a clean sheet for the Eagles might be worth a look. After a shock 1-2 home defeat by Academica on the opening day, they've kept six in a row. Rio Ave have scored in half of their away games but four of those five goals came against inferior opposition and they were shut out when they travelled to Sporting Lisbon earlier in October; Benfica have stopped them scoring in three of their last five league visits.


Spain
5pm
Deportivo La Coruna v Sporting Gijon


Belgium
7:00pm
LOKEREN v Cercle Bruges
Lokeren are easily the most improved team at home in the Jupiler League this season, although leaders Genk aren't far behind. Cercle are playing at about the same level as last season and lost this game 5-3 last season. POSTPONED


Zulte-Waregem v Westerlo
Over 2.5 goals
Zulte-Waregem have scored in nine of their ten home games this season, Westerlo in seven of their nine aways. Both teams to score is the cheaper alternative.


France
8:00pm
St Etienne v Arles
Oppose Arles - although St Etienne have only lost once at home this season, they haven't won at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in the league since mid September. Arles have drawn at Brest and Monaco and both those sides have drawn have the majority of their home games - just like St. Etienne. The hosts have scored in all of their home games in Ligue 1 this season.

Toulouse v Lorient
Under 2.5 goals

Mixed Night For Champions League Hopefuls

Manchester United beat Arsenal 1-0, but I've got no idea what Valencia were doing last night. 3-1 up at half time and with half an hour to go, they ended up dropping two points at home to Osasuna when Carlos Aranda scored the equaliser with three minutes left.

Suffice to say I am not pleased at all with that result: there are now two teams on my Champions League blacklist - Inter Milan (I could have told them that appointing Rafa Benitez was a mistake - if the rumours are to believed he'll be out of a job before Christmas, with Fabio Capello favourite to take over) and Valencia. Don't even consider backing either of them to appear at Wembley next May.

I'm working on this weekend's tips right now, they'll be up as soon as I've finished them.

Late Goals May Be Key To Man U v Arsenal

First of all, although I'll be watching Manchester United v Arsenal I'm not going to get involved - especially as Valencia v Osasuna offers more clear cut opportunities. There's nothing wrong with writing a preview though.

This is easily Manchester United's toughest home game in the Premiership so far this season. Based on Friday's table they've only played one other top five team at home in 2010/11 (Spurs) and the average position of their opponents is thirteenth. Arsenal have had a slightly easier away schedule despite playing at Chelsea and Manchester City.


United should be about evens for the win - they've won seven of their eight home games in the Prem this season and have beaten Arsenal in six of the last ten league meetings at Old Trafford. The Gunners didn't get off to a great start away from the Emirates (four points from 12) but have won their last four consecutive away games.


Unfortunately for the outright markets, that's where any interest ends. The current best prices on the draw no bet market are 4/9 for United and 2/1 for Arsenal: the double chance market isn't even worth considering.


A couple of facts about the goals markets stand out immediately. Despite winning four of the last 20 meetings at United, Arsenal have failed to score more than one goal in the league at Old Trafford since November 1984, so if the Gunners stand any chance of picking three points up in the North West, they have to stop United from scoring.


And there's the rub. United have failed to score only once in the last 50 Premiership games (last December against Aston Villa) and even when they lose at home they score. Arsenal have won 'to nil' twice away from home this season, but beating a Manchester City team that played almost the entire game with ten men and a Wolves team that's clearly struggling doesn't exactly inspire confidence. To underline this point, Arsenal have taken the lead against United in two of the last three league meetings in the North West but only went on to win one of those games.


Looking at it the other way round, if Manchester United stop Arsenal from scoring they will at least earn a point. United have kept four clean sheets in the league this season but Newcastle, West Ham and Wigan don't have the same potential for goals that Arsenal do; nine different players have scored for Arsenal in their away games in the Premiership this season - Marouane Chamakh is the leading scorer with three.

I only usually look at goal times for big games and although I already knew that late goals were a feature of United's games, I was astonished when I took a close look at goal times in games featuring these teams this season. There have been a lot, although strangely enough only two of the late goals in Arsenal's games have had any affect on the result of the game: Pepe Reina's own goal in August meant that the Gunners gained a point at Anfield and a month later Darren Bent's equaliser for Sunderland meant Arsenal dropped rwo points. Since then late goals in Arsenal's away games have either been padding their lead or consolation goals for the opponents.

United's late goals in the Premiership at Old Trafford have a similar pattern - two decisive goals (Berbatov's winner against Liverpool and Park's winner against Wolves), one that made the game safe (Nani's ridiculous goal against Spurs) and one to make the score look one sided (Ryan Giggs against Newcastle).

Verdict: Arsenal probably won't win, but there are a lot of things to keep an eye out for. Will United concede a first half goal for the first time this season? Can Arsenal score two goals at Old Trafford for the first time in a quarter of a century? Will Howard Webb award a penalty or give anyone a red card?

Away from the Premier League, Valencia's game with Osasuna looks far more clear cut. The visitors have only picked up one point away from home this season, Valencia have won nine of the last ten league meetings between the two sides at the Mestalla and this looks like a low scoring game that Valencia should win, possibly keeping a clean sheet in doing so.

Results Round Up

60% strike rate last weekend but still made a minor loss (less than one point) mainy due to chasing draws that didn't come off - I mentioned yesterday that Valenciennes v PSG was the only slightly annoying one but I obviously jinxed Real Mallorca!

Overall just over three points profit for December so I'm not complaining. I broke even on Anderlecht because I was watching the live feed on Betfair at the same time as the Spurs/Chelsea game and although Lokeren were reduced to ten men after Koen Persoons was sent off after half an hour, the hosts had neither the flair nor the imagination to break down the Lokeren defence. When the draw price had dropped down to 1.44 (the same price I backed the Anderlecht win) I took it and the game finished goalless so I broke even.

Big game in the Premiership tonight, but despite investigating various angles I'm leaving it alone - it's interesting to note that Arsenal haven't scored more than one goal at Old Trafford in the league since November 1984 and that even when they lose at home United still manage to score. There are far more opportunities in the Valencia/Osasuna game in Spain this evening and I'll be back later with at least one recommendation.

Finally for now, the New England Patriots are looking formidable in the NFL and the College Bowl season starts on Saturday, so I'll definitely be taking a look at some of those games.

Free Football Betting Tips For Sunday 12th December

No home banker today because as far as I can see all the teams in bold have as good a chance of winning as any other. Made a loss of £3.80(!) over the last two days, the only one I was a bit miffed at was Valenciennes equalised with less than ten minutes left in their game against PSG...only for PSG to score what turned out to be the winning goal two minutes later. From a 'keep an eye on them' point of view, Zulte-Waregem in Belgium are looking hard to beat away from home.


Greece
3:15pm
AEK Athens v Larissa
Opposing Larissa in both halves would be a good idea, although it's only fair that I point out that AEK have now gone beyond 20 home games in the league without losing. It would be a big shock if Larissa - currently bottom - won in Athens though.


Spain
4:00pm
Real Mallorca v Racing Santander
It sounds a bit boring, but once again the right play would be to oppose Santander in both halves. They're on a twelve game losing streak away from home and have been behind at half time in every single one of their away games this season.


Belgium
5:00pm
Anderlecht v Lokeren

7:30pm
Kortrijk v Lierse
Kortrijk shouldn't have any problems in this game, but despite Lierse losing 7-0 to Standard Liege in their last road trip there's a possibility that this could be a low scoring win for the home side. Kortrijk might also keep a clean sheet - they've done that in five of their seven home games this season - but also because Lierse have failed to score in four of their last eight aways.


Spain
8:00pm
Barcelona v Real Sociedad
I'm going to assume that there's no value for a Barcelona win (there almost never is at home in La Liga) and suggest that laying 0-0 (if you can afford it) would be better. Alternatively, given that Real Sociedad's record at Camp Nou is wretched - 12 straight defeats - and Barca have kept clean sheets in the last four league meetings, backing a home clean sheet might be worth a look.

Free Soccer Betting Tips For Friday and Saturday

I've also got some pre-Christmas socialising to do this weekend, hence the early post.

The weather is still playing havoc across Europe and that's why I've got nothing for Portugal - the last round of games is scheduled to finish this afternoon, but even that far south the wind is causing problems and it'll be worth checking to see if some of the northern European games are still on before parting with your cash.

Both the Hungarian and Croatian leagues have gone into hibernation and won't be back until February, but I've done some research into both of them are there are some very strong trends to exploit when they resume at the end of February.

Gent would have been my home banker selection on Saturday, but there's next to no value in the win market. So teams in bold represent the best chances of home wins; Sunday tips will be up either tomorrow or Friday and I'm going to have an depth look at Manchester United v Arsenal as well.

FRIDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
7:45pm
Swansea v Millwall under 2.5 goals

SATURDAY
CHAMPIONSHIP
3:00pm
Burnley v Leeds over 2.5 goals
Reading v Coventry


GREECE
3:15pm
Olympiakos Volos v Aris Salonika under 2.5 goals
Aris could be the most boring side in Europe at the moment. There's only been one goal in every one of their six away games.

5:30pm
PAOK v Iraklis half time draw


FRANCE
6:00pm
Lorient v Lens
Draw/Lorient might work in this game, but any way to oppose Lens looks more likely to pay off. The visitors have not been ahead at half time in any of their seven away games in Ligue 1 this season, Lorient have only been behind once in their eight home games but have been level in four of them. Additionally, Lorient have won the last three league games between these two at the Stade de Moustoir.

Valenciennes v PSG
Draw. Two of the last four league games on the Belgian border have been draws and the hosts have drawn recent games with Lille and St. Etienne. PSG are on a three game away drawing streak,  and their away record is similar to that of QPR.


BELGIUM
7:00pm
Gent v Charleroi
Gent should win this at a canter, but there's absolutely no value here apart from in the over 2.5 goals market.

Cercle Brugge v Zulte Waregem
Although Cercle Brugge's home record is superior to Zulte's away record, the visitors have only lost one of their last six league games at the Jan Breydel stadium and they're the draw specialists in the Jupiler League this season. Although Cercle could win this, there's value to be had on a draw at half time with 0-0 as a possible correct score after 45 minutes.

Ten Man Espanyol Win & Keep A Clean Sheet

Very satisfactory late afternoon early evening.

Even after going down to ten men early in the second half following the dismissal of Jose Baena, Espanyol beat Sporting Gijon 1-0. There were also single goal victories for Villareal and Sunderland, so not a bad day at the office at all.

Very big game in the NFL tonight, I might post a preview later but unless something really statistically significant stands out then I won't be making any recommendations.

Free Tips For Sunday 5th December

Oddly enough, despite being from different leagues, there's a common theme to the games I'm looking at today. With the possible exception of Villareal v Sevilla, the other games feature away sides that aren't doing particularly well at the moment but have decent records at the teams they're visiting today. Bold represents home win, bold caps is a home banker.

Spain
4:00pm
ESPANYOL v Sporting Gijon
Espanyol have failed to beat Sporting Gijon in any of the last six home games in Barcelona, but they're on a seven game home winning streak while Gijon have failed to win any of their last fourteen away games. There are good reasons to support a nibble at an Espanyol clean sheet too - in four of their six home games this season they've prevented their opponents from scoring and Gijon have failed to score in the four away games where they've faced opponents that are currently above them in the league.

6:00pm
Villareal v Sevilla
Villareal have a formidable home record over the last 20 games (only two defeats) and have only lost twice at home to Sevilla in the league in the last decade. There's a bit of health warning on this game though as the visitors have now gone 26 games without an away draw(!) but the last time Sevilla travelled to a top four side Barcelona beat them 5-0. Although Villareal aren't in the same class as Barcelona I think they're a genuine contender for Champions League football next season and they should win this one.

Watching Brief Only
Premiership
4:00pm
Sunderland v West Ham
Raw numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw and opposing West Ham seems like the logical thing to do, but Sunderland's home record against teams that are currently below them in the Premiership features two draws in three games so a draw cannot be completely ruled out. Sunderland have only won eight of their last 20 games at the Stadium of Light and as West Ham haven't won an away game for well over a year now they are due a win at some point; The trouble is will it come today?
Recommendation: nice pot of tea and some crumpets, feet up and curse the fact you didn't back a West Ham win.

Saturday Results

Not bad at all, although at one point during the Leeds v Crystal Palace this afternoon I didn't think it was going to come off. The only duffer was backing the draw in the first half at Manchester City, but the game in Portugal that I mentioned yesterday ended up with Sporting Braga being reduced to eight players and losing 3-1.

More to come tomorrow, I've already ruled a couple of potential games out.

Tips For December 4th

Main one is don't go out unless you have to!

Three of my English tips have fallen foul of the winter weather in the UK already and I'd not be surprised if some more games were postponed, but here's the list of Saturday's games that I'm going to get involved in: possible home wins in bold, home banker in bold caps.

Premiership
3:00pm
Manchester City v Bolton - back the draw at half time
Blackburn v Wolves

Championship
3:00pm
Leeds v Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals

Croatia
3:00pm
Oppose Slaven at Zadar - there are a number of ways to do this, laying on Betfair, backing Slaven or the draw and although the double chance odds slightly offputting (1.2) that's a possible avenue I'm looking for the next game.

Hungary
3:00pm
Oppose Szombathely at ZALAEGERSZEG
I know those names look strange, but basically Alder Tree Corner should beat Progress Saturday Market Place; Szombathely have lost seven of their eight away games in the league this season.

UPDATE: Postponed - in fact, the entire NB1 programme for this weekend was cancelled and will be replayed at the end of February.

Portugal
9:15pm
Uniao de Leiria v Sporting Braga - oppose Braga, but caution if you're thinking of backing Leiria outright.

I think there's a possibility that the bookies are being cute here, hoping that punters will back Braga because they beat Arsenal in the last round of the Champions League. Don't be fooled - Braga haven't won an away game in the league this season and although they've won two of the last ten meetings in Leiria (half way between Lisbon and Porto if you're interested), half of the other games have been draws.

The Leiria/draw double chance odds are currently 1.57 - which qualifies as a value bet as my numbers indicate the odds should be at least 1.47.

I ran some numbers for the other leagues but although there were a few that could have been interesting, upon further investigation there were either some anomalies or there was no value available. For the record, Chelsea should beat Everton, Blackpool and Manchester United should score more than 2.5 goals between them (update: postponed on Friday) and Real Madrid shouldn't have any problems with Valencia.

The Joke Is On Us...Again.

Can't be bothered to write much after that travesty, so I'll leave it at that. If it's any consolation, I think there might be concerns raised about Russian suitability as a host well before 2018.

And as far Qatar...that's an even bigger joke. Are all the stadiums going to be air conditioned or something? There are a lot of cultural issues on both sides as well.

World Cup 2018

No tips today, just some thoughts.

I was only two years old in 1966 so I don't remember anything about the tournament. On the day of the final my mum, her mum and I went for a walk in the park as there's no doubt that I would have been too disruptive and my dad and my grandad wouldn't have appreciated that.

A couple of years later the team from the town I grew up in reached the Amateur Cup Final: my dad and one of his mates went to see them lose 1-0 at Wembley and I wanted to go. Not because I understood why they were going: I didn't want to be miss whatever was happening because the whole town was excited about it. My mum - who was seven months pregnant - and I spent the afternoon with some family friends, who - then as now - are Watford supporters.

We're only a few hours away from the vote that decides the host country for the 2018 finals and I've just watched the final presentation by the FA bid team: it was great stuff and I'm not ashamed to say that I got a little emotional about it. Apart from a few wild years where I didn't really pay much attention to what was happening (those years were called the mid eighties, which were a spectacularly crap time for English football), I've been a football fan since I was seven years old and being able to see a World Cup in England is something I've always wanted to do.

The result will be in at 3:00pm GMT and I'll post something then.

Free Tip For Friday December 3rd

It's the final weekend before the winter break in both Croatia and Hungary this weekend - neither of them restart until the last weekend in February(!), so there'll be plenty of time for me to do some analysis on how both leagues are shaping up before they start playing again. I'm thinking of adding a PDF for each to the blog in the near future, but I'll post when they're available.

There's only one game worth looking at on Friday afternoon in Croatia and Inter Zaprešić v Cibalia (3:00pm GMT) isn't going to be a classic. The weather will be zero degrees and snowing at kickoff time, it's the last game before Christmas and neither of these teams are what you might call prolific in front of goal. Zaprešić's eight home games this season have produced a grand total of eighteen goals, while there have been only 11 goals in Cibalia's eight away games, so it's hardly a huge surprise that I'm recommending under 2.5 goals.

In keeping with the last couple of weekends, I'll be posting some tips from the less exposed European Leagues over the next few days and for the first time this season I'll be including Greece.

Barcelona 5, Real Madrid 0

Bloody hell - in a good way that is. What a performance!

It's easy to be wise after the event, thanks to Jeffren as the second half won the most goals bet and the Barcelona draw no bet also came off. Football was the real winner though - fantastic.

Thoughts On 'El Clasico'

With apologies to Leicester City and Nottingham Forest, there's only one game worth looking at today.

There are actually a few value markets left for Barcelona v Real Madrid, so let's try to make some sense from them. The following stats are for the last fifteen league games at Nou Camp; those in italic are for the last 20 league games where Barcelona have been at home and Real Madrid have been away.

Barcelona Win
The hosts have won the last two meetings, but those victories are the only two in the last five meetings and the hosts have only won four of the last ten - in fact, consecutive Barca victories over Real Madrid have been pretty rare recently. The last time Barcelona won consecutive games was March 98 and February 99 and - with the exception of the last two seasons - the pattern is that a draw normally follows the season after a Barcelona win. Hardly a convincing case for a Barcelona win.

Barcelona have won 17 of their last 20 home games in La Liga, but Real Madrid have only lost twice away from home in the same period and are currently on a sixteen game unbeaten streak away from home.

Barcelona Clean Sheet
Slightly clearer. Real Madrid have failed to score in nine of the last 15 games and both of Barcelona's most recent victories have been to nil.

Barcelona have kept clean sheets in half of their last 20 league games, Real have only been shut out five times in the same period - but have only lost twice when they've failed to score.

Conclusion: possible, but unlikely. Although Real Madrid have scored eight of their ten away goals in La Liga in the second half, Barcelona have conceded four of the five goals scored against them at Nou Camp in the first half and seem to be vulnerable from the 25th minute onwards.

Less Than 1.5 Goals
Only four of the last fifteen games have featured less than 1.5 goals, but that includes two of the last three. There's been an average of 2.4 goals in these games.

Barcelona have only featured in four games from the last 20 where less than 1.5 goals were scored - and they won all four. Real Madrid have featured in seven - but three were in La Liga this season and they've drawn two.

Conclusion: possible, but also unlikely - for similar reasons to those concerning a Barcelona clean sheet.

Less Than 3.5 Goals
13 of the last 15 games have featured less than 3.5 goals - the last one was a 3-3 draw in March 2007.

13 of Barca's last 20 games have featured under 3.5 goals, four of their six home league games this season have been under 3.5 but their last two games (5-0 v Sevilla and 3-1 over Villareal) have been over. 12 of Real Madrid's last 20 games have been under 3.5 goals including four of their six road trips this season.

Conclusion: this could be the way forward. It may be a safer bet than under 2.5 goals - given the firepower both sides possess, there's a chance that rather than quantity of goals, we may be looking at quality.

0-0 Correct Score
Only one game in the last fifteen (November 2002)

Barcelona have not featured in a 0-0 draw at the Nou Camp since April 2008(!) - a 46 game streak. Real Madrid have already drawn 0-0 with Levante and Mallorca this season.

Conclusion: a massive trap here that could pay out - any time there's a slightly ridiculous streak on the line it's worth opposing, so even though it's a contradiction in terms of the arguments immediately above, backing 0-0 might be worth it.

RECOMMENDATIONS
The numbers I normally use indicate a 58.3% chance of a draw at half time with less than one goal being scored, which also fits the hypothesis that the second half will be the highest scoring half. However, they also indicate that although Real Madrid won't win (86%), Barcelona may not win either - Barcelona draw no bet could be worth a look, as could the draw. I don't think there will be that many goals either, but under 3.5 goals is potentially safer than under 2.5.

In terms of 'gut feeling', backing either Messi or Villa to score first and between 21 and 30 minutes as the time of the first goal might be worth a minimum stakes investment.

I'm tempted to say that this is worth watching rather than getting involved with, but with some value to be had in certain markets I don't think going overboard with staking is a good idea though. Let's hope it's a good game and at least lives up to some of the hype.

Sunday 28th November

Better performance on Saturday, 61% strike rate with a clean sweep on the recommendations in Croatia - next week is the last round of games there before the winter break.

Here are today's recommendations - in chronological order for a change as there's a chance to recycle some cash.

Premiership
4:00pm
Oppose Liverpool at Spurs

Hungary
4:30pm
Oppose Ujpest at Gyori in the first half, I'm backing the draw.

Portugal
6:15pm
Beira Mar v Benfica half time draw

Belgium
7:00pm
Oppose Zulte Waregem at Mechelen, first half draw

Spain
8:00pm
Valencia v Almeria under 2.5 goals - to be placed when some of the earlier outcomes are known.

Coming tomorrow: Barcelona v Real Madrid. Looking forward to that!

Tips For Saturday 27th November

Well, yesterday can be described in one word: ouch. Still, back on the horse and no loss chasing...here are Saturday's tips, teams in bold are worth a straight win bet, Hajduk Split are today's home banker.

CROATIA
3:00pm
HAJDUK SPLIT v Osijek
Cibalia v Sibenik
Karlovac v Zadar
Slaven v Inter Zapresic back draw at half time and under 2.5 goals for the game


HUNGARY
3:00pm
Kecskemeti v MTK - back draw at half time

PORTUGAL
4:00pm
Pacos de Ferreira v Olhanense - back draw
5:00pm
Maritimo v Vitoria Guimaraes - back draw at half time
9:15pm
Sporting Lisbon v FC Porto under 2.5 goals

SPAIN
5:00pm
Real Zaragoza v Villareal over 2.5 goals
9:00pm
Oppose Espanyol in both halves against Atletico Madrid


BELGIUM
7:00pm
Cercle Bruges v Germinal Beerschot

Right, I'm off to watch the rugby in Bath. Happy hunting!

26th November

Teams in bold are worth a straight win, if you only fancy one selection the team in bold caps is the one to follow.

Belgium
7:30
Genk v Gent: oppose Gent in both halves, back over 2.5 goals

Championship
7:45
SWANSEA v Portsmouth: oppose Portsmouth, back under 2.5 goals

Portugal
8:15
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: the hosts are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but have drawn more games than they've won and my numbers indicate a 50% chance of a draw...so full time draw it is then.

Watching Brief:
Hungary

4:00
Lombard Papa v Debrecen
The pricing is interesting here - I think it's because reigning champions Debrecen have a reasonably good record at Papa, the hosts were beaten 5-1 at home by Ferencvaros last Saturday and Papa's other home defeat came against Fehervar/Videoton, so it's reasonable to assume Lombard Papa's poor record against top four sides is why their price is so large.

However there's no disguising Debrecen's poor away record this season - two draws, six defeats and a minus ten goal difference isn't anything to write home about and the games they lost came against sides that are currently lower than Papa, so this looks like a game that could literally go either way.

I may have a 'day off' tomorrow...doing some pre-Xmas socialising ;-)

Monday Results

Frustrating evening all round, but sometimes that's the game.

As soon as Sunderland v Everton kicked off it looked and sounded more like a cup tie than a league game and with two goals in the first 25 minutes under 2.5 was looking dodgy at best.

Meanwhile, to the south of Madrid, a goal from Real Zaragoza's Argentinian striker Nicolas Bertolo gave his side a half time lead for the first time this season against Getafe - although former Zaragoza striker Adrian Colunga equalised from a penalty shortly after half time and the game finished in a draw, that was the only positive result of the night.

Still, I won this week's game in the NFL fantasy league I play in (6-5 for the season) - and I'll have a team next week, which is more than can be said about former Vikings coach Ray Childress. Minnesota fitted part of the profile of potential Superbowl winners that I posted a couple of weeks ago, but their decline this season is arguably on a par with the meltdown in Dallas.

Looking back at the profile - and taking into account the two games played since I posted it - there's been some movement, but the 8-2 Atlanta Falcons are currently a very tradeable 11.5 (10/1) on Betfair. It might be worth waiting until after their game with the Packers (7-3) on Sunday before making a move.

Monday Night Football 22nd November 2010

Sunderland v Everton 8pm
Looks like a low scoring game with a high draw possibility to me - Sunderland are unbeaten at home in the league this season, but Everton don't have a bad recent record against the Black Cats, they've won four of the last five meetings in the North East. Arguably the safest bet is under 2.5 goals.

Getafe v Real Zaragoza 8pm
Opposing Real Zaragoza in both halves looks like a sound strategy as they've yet to win away or lead at half time, which explains why they're bottom of the league. Having said that...I'm not sure that I've got enough confidence in Getafe winning outright, so dutching Getafe/the draw in both halves looks as if it's worth a go.

I might have a look at the Chargers/Broncos game later on, but I've got some real life stuff to attend to today and given my alarming tendency to back the wrong outcome in the NFL recently then I might just leave it...

Results For Sunday

Clean sweep, although Fehervar/Videoton left it a bit late. Monday Night Football from the Premiership, Spain and the USA coming tomorrow.

Tips For Sunday 21st November

Only a couple today, I ruled out a few after doing a quick risk v reward analysis. The teams in bold are also worth a straight win bet.

Spain:
4:00pm
Osasuna v Gijon - oppose Gijon in both halves
Espanyol v Hercules - oppose Hercules for the game


Hungary:
4:30pm
Fehervar (aka Videoton on some coupons) v Ujpest

Saturday's Results Are In...

Not bad, a 50% strike rate for the day with one refund.

The only failures from the recommendations were Sibenik (0)3 Slaven (1)3, Charleroi 0, Gent 2 at half time and Osijek were leading (and went on to beat) Cibalia 1-0 at half time.

I honestly didn't think that when I recommended draw no bet for Genk v Westerlo it would finish 4-4 with Peruvian striker Daniel Chavez scoring with what must have been the last kick of the game. More to come tomorrow morning.

Free Football Tips For Saturday 20th November

Rather than regurgitate the information on the 'major' markets that you can find elsewhere, I thought it might be more fun to look at this weekend's games in the smaller countries where I've been on holiday - there's often value to be had in the less exposed markets.

Inter Zapresic and Karlovac played out a goalless draw in Croatia yesterday afternoon - the half time draw bet won and dutching Inter/draw also worked.


12:30pm
Croatia
Istra 1961 v Hajduk Split under 2.5 goals


2:00pm
Hungary
Kecskemeti v Vasas - oppose Vasas


3:00pm
Croatia
Sibenik v Slaven: half time draw, under 2.5 goals for the game
Zadar v Varazdin: Zadar win


5:00pm
Belgium
Germinal Beerschot v Anderlecht: half time draw

7:00pm
Belgium
Charleroi v Genk half time draw
Eupen v Kortrijk half time draw
Lokeren v Mechelen: Lokeren win
Gent v Westerlo: draw no bet, back Gent


7:05pm
Croatia
Osijek v Cibalia: back draw both halves, two bets, not HT/FT.

Free Tips For Friday 19th November

A couple of games worth following today.

Croatia, 3:00pm GMT
Inter Zapresic v Karlovac: back the draw at half time and Inter to go on to win the game. Two separate bets, not HT/FT.

Portugal, 8:15pm GMT
Vitoria Setubal v Academica: oppose Academica, backing the draw also looks like a good idea.
Update: Vitoria Setubal v Academica is next week...doh! Anyway, the advice still stands - it's a cup weekend in Portugal.

The Redskins: Far Worse Than I Expected

I fired up NFL.com this morning and just started laughing.
Washington 28, Philadelphia 59.

Actually, that should probably say Washington 28, Michael Vick 59.

That's the most points the Redskins have ever given up at home - the last time they even came close to that was a defeat by the Bears in 1947, when they lost 20-56. Eerily, the rushing stats compiled by the Bears' Jim Keane all those years ago were similar to those that Jerome Harrison put up last night.

The 59 points the Eagles put on the board is the most they've scored on the road since October 1953, when they won 56-17 at the Chicago (now Arizona) Cardinals. In terms of points differential, it's Philadelphia's biggest away win since they spanked the Dallas Cowboys 36-3 in 2001.

Anyway, the recommendation was a bust, but if you're going to lose a bet I think it's preferable to lose by a mile.

With Week 11 coming in a couple of days, it's worth having a quick look at the standings after Week 10, especially as the bye weeks have now finished.

7-2
Jets, Patriots, Falcons
6-3
Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Eagles, Giants, Bears, Packers, Saints, Buccaneers
5-4
Dolphins, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, Seahawks

I still think the teams from the 7-2 and 6-3 groups stand the best chance of winning the Superbowl, but a couple of teams in the 6-3 group deserve a mention. The Bears finished third in the NFC North last season (which satisfies one of the conditions I mentioned here), but hats off to the Buccaneers. They were dreadful last season and their improvement this season is obvious. Pete Carroll also seems to have done a decent job at Seattle after moving from USC.

There are some massive games this weekend: Miami v Chicago on Thursday, Pittsburgh v Oakland, New Orleans v Seattle, New England v Indianapolis and Philadelphia v New York Giants on Sunday. Although there are still six regular season games left, there's still a lot to play for.

MNF: Eagles at Redskins

I knew that the Washington Redskins have not been amongst the best teams in the NFL recently, but I hadn't realised exactly how bad they've been until I was researching their game against the Philadelphia Eagles this evening.

Any team in any sport that has only won nine of their last 20 home games isn't going to be a good one, but when you've only won eight of the last 20 games against one of your biggest rivals at home then you've got a real problem. That's the Redskins for you. On the other hand, the Eagles have won 11 of their last 20 road trips and eight of the last ten games between these two at Fedex Field. So this looks likely a fairly straightforward Eagles win to me...but guess what. No value for an Eagles win.

Happily, the points cut off is 42.5/43 and this is where there is an advantage. The last 20 games head to head in Washington have been pretty low scoring affairs (36.5 points per game) and even when the Eagles victories are looked at in isolation the average is on 38 points. Under 42.5 is also promising from the point of view of the Redskins last 20 homes and the Eagles last 20 aways, although Philadelphia road games have an average of 45.1 points - but at this point it's worth remembering that they don't play at Washington every week.

Here's the blatant promo for Betfair...I love their tiered points markets for NFL games. They've got markets for 31.5, 41.5 and 51.5 points and so the recommendation is to lay over 51.5 points on Betfair.

Mop Up Monday

Probably a good job I didn't commit to any of the scenarios I mentioned for the Steelers/Patriots game - it would have been a bad end to a satisfactory weekend. Having said that, the Patriots win shows that they are a legitimate contender for the Superbowl.

Overall, I'm actually quite pleased with what happened over the weekend. I knew that Manchester United were behind at Aston Villa but I had no idea that Fergie's men would have to come from two goals down until the game had finished. That's why I recommended separate bets on the draw being the outcome of both halves - if Villa had held on, I'd have lost the full time part of the single bet, which is what happened with Auxerre v Rennes yesterday.

The only other issue from the weekend was that it's sometimes difficult to oppose a team that you're fairly certain isn't going to win. Sporting Gijon were beaten by an 82nd minute goal from Gonzalo Higuain, but backing Real Madrid at the prices on offer didn't have any value. I eventually decided to have a tiny bet on both the Sporting Gijon win and the draw, but I may revise that strategy. Backing the draw would have worked in the Manchester City/Birmingham game on Saturday, but that's a game I thought Roberto Mancini's side would win.

It's also worth looking at some of the less well known competitions. All the bets I recommended in Hungary came up and if you count the insurance bet on Standard Liege then I got a majority of decisions in Belgium. The only real surprise was that Zagreb lost to Hrvatski Dragovoljac in Croatia but I can live with things like that - it's why I'm a fan as well as a punter.

I'll have some thoughts on the MNF game between the Eagles and the Redskins later on, but I'm off to see if there are any early bargains for this weekend's games now!

NFL: Steelers v Patriots

Steelers look as if they'll win this one.

They've  won 14 of their last 20 regular season home games at Heinz Field by an average of 10 points and six of the last ten games against the Patriots (nine of 14 all time in Pennsylvania). It's not like the Patriots have the worst road record over the last 20 games (50% wins) but they've only won three of their last ten games away from Foxboro.

Should be around 42/43 points but the bookies are looking at over/under 44.5 or 45, so on the face of it under would probably be the bet - which would be supported if Pittsburgh won, as only three of those 14 victories mentioned above have featured over 44.5 points. The average number of points in Steeler victories over the Patriots at Heinz Field is 42.

A Pittsburgh victory by 1-6 or 7-12 points could also pay off (both are available at around 5.0/5.5), but once again I'm going to record the game and watch it tomorrow. This week I've got some time to put a proper NFL preview together for Week 11 so I'll make some definite recommendations then.

Sunday Tips

Not a bad haul yesterday, although I need to remember 'opposing' a team can mean either backing the opposition to win or backing the draw. Results round up on Monday, but there's a few worth looking at today - teams in bold stand the best chance of a straight win:

4:00
France:
Auxerre v Rennes - draw HT/FT but two seperate bets. Rennes haven't lost away from home yet.
Spain:
Racing Santander v Espanyol - back Racing draw no bet

4:30
Hungary:
Ferencvaros v Szombathely

6:00
Spain:
Sporting Gijon v Real Madrid - oppose Sporting, but be aware that although Real Madrid haven't lost at home so far this season, going into the weekend this game was the most likely in La Liga to finish as a draw.

I'll have a quick preview of the Pittsburgh/New England game in the NFL up later but my early guess will be that I don't recommend anything ;-)

Free Football Tips For November 13th

Here are Saturday's selections. Teams in bold represent a decent chance of a home win. I'll post Sunday's games either later tonight or tomorrow morning.


Saturday:
12:45pm
Premiership: 
Aston Villa v Manchester United - back the draw at half time and full time (two separate bets, not HT/FT) but don't break the bank
1:00pm
Croatia: 
Istra 61 v Cibalia under 2.5 goals
2:00pm
Hungary: 
Debrecen v Zalaegerszeg
3:00pm
Croatia: 
Zagreb (note NOT Dinamo Zagreb) v Hrvatski - Zagreb to win both halves
Hungary:
Vasas v Paksi SE over 2.5 goals
Premiership:
Spurs v Blackburn - draw at half time
Oppose Birmingham at Manchester City - I've decided to back a straight City win.
Oppose Fulham at Newcastle - dutching prices are pretty good
Wolves v Bolton back the draw at both half time and full time - similar to Villa v Man United.
6:00pm
France: 
Brest v Sochaux
Bonus info: Goals per game in Ligue 1 is still really low - 2.32
7:00pm 
Belgium: 
Genk v Cercle - hosts haven't been behind at half time all season and have enough to win this.
Lokeren v St Truiden
Germinal Beerschot v Standard Liege - although Beerschot have a decent home record and are worth dutching with the draw, it makes sense to have a small insurance bet on Standard just in case.
Spain: 
Athletico Madrid v Osasuna
7:15pm
Portugal: 
Vitoria Guimaraes v Sporting Braga - dutching Vitoria and draw is the way forward as Vitoria look a bit long for a straight win; although Braga have had a disastrous run in the Champions League, they're still one of the best sides in Portugal.

Friday Tips

All being well, this will be the first of three posts for this weekend's football, so here are today's selections:

Friday
4:00pm Hungary NB1:
MTK v Lombard Papa: over 2.5 goals

7:45pm npower Championship:
Oppose Hull in first half against Preston (ie dutch Preston or the draw), back over 2.5 goals for the game

Atlanta won last night, just about to sit down and watch it. I've got a feeling that the Falcons could go deep in the playoffs this season.

NFL Week 10: First Superbowl Prediction

Week 10 in the NFL starts tonight with a clash between two of the better teams in the league.

Both the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens have 6-2 records this season. The Falcons have won all four of their home games in 2010; the two losses the Ravens have suffered have both come on the road.


Surprisingly there's plenty of value in a Falcons win. Using my 'last 20 games' method, Atlanta are 17 of 20 at the Georgia Dome while Baltimore is 10 of 20 away from Maryland but because this is an interconference game and the Ravens are a relatively new team, there's not much to go on in terms of head to head form - in the two previous games between them, they've split the series and as the last time they played one another was eight years ago I don't think I can rely on that.


As for the total points, the bookies are looking at a cut off point of either 43.5 or 44 - and there's a decision to be made here as twelve of the Falcons last 20 home games have been over 43.5 but only six of the Ravens away games have been over that figure. Basically this bet is going to come down to how well the Ravens defence plays; so I'm leaving this one alone. Recommendation: it'll be a good game, so just watch it or record it to watch tomorrow.


On to the burning question: who's going to win the Vince Lombardi trophy in February?
Using data from the last 20 Superbowls and analysing it in the same way I've used to predict the winners of the major European football leagues, it's reasonable to take the following factors into account:

• 75% of the winners had winning seasons the previous year
• 75% of  the winners had either won their division or finished third the previous year
• 55% of the winners came from the NFC, although seven of the last ten championships were won by AFC teams
• 40% of the winners have come from the Eastern divisions
• 25% of the winners have come from the Western divisions

Using the criteria above, the favourites should be New England. The Patriots had a winning season in 2009 and won the AFC East and their 6-2 record this season puts them well on track for another shot at the whole thing. Interestingly, the only other teams with a strong case are the San Diego Chargers and the Dallas Cowboys but they both having losing records going into Week 10 and the Cowboys collapse has been a major talking point this season.


There are seven clubs that satisfy at least two of the criteria I mentioned earlier but only two of them won their divisions (Colts and Saints) and the Steelers finished in 3rd place in the AFC North despite having a winning record in 2009, but that's the same profile as the '90 Redskins, '02 Buccaneers and the '03 Patriots, who all won the Superbowl in those seasons. The Jets and the Eagles are in this group too, but that's because they had winning records last season and are in the 'right' divisions.


The clubs I'd call 'outsiders' come into contention purely because they had winning seasons last season: this group includes the Ravens, Packers and Falcons, all of whom have good records so far this season. The Houston Texans also make it into this group despite being 4-4 at the moment.

So remembering that we're only just half way through the season, my ridiculously premature prediction for next February is that New England will defeat New Orleans in Texas next February. I've no doubt it'll change from week to week but let's see what happens.                                                                                               

Bl**dy Typical ;-)

Chelsea won the first half against Fulham, but I decided to leave the second half alone...which was the correct decision.

And - how bl**dy annoying is this - everything else in the Premiership came in. Of course I didn't I have any money on those games.
Swansea 0, Bristol City 1: let's be honest, nobody saw that one coming and I'm glad I kept away from it. So overall sitting back and just seeing how the stats compared to the real outcomes was a worthwhile exercise even though it was frustrating that it didn't pay out.

Stay tuned for a breakdown of tonight's NFL game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons...I'll also be making the first of several educated guesses about potential Superbowl winners.

Wednesday Night: Evaluation Time

OK, hands up time.
I took a look at my spreadsheets after last night's games and I wasn't happy. There was a 50% chance of the draw in the Spurs v Sunderland game and it was plain as the nose on my face - in a red cell with white writing.

The Championship spreadsheet was also not convinced about an Ipswich win either, so I think it's time for a bit of re-evaluation regarding my game selection - so here's what the numbers are saying tonight:

Premiership:
Chelsea to win both halves against Fulham, although there's a 40% chance of a draw. So opposing Fulham looks like the way forward. That's my only recommendation for tonight, but I'll be monitoring the following games to see if I need to overhaul my system.

* Opposing Blackpool at Aston Villa also looks like it would work
* Everton v Bolton and Manchester City v Manchester United both have about 40% chance of a draw, I'm definitely looking at Everton v Bolton being all square at half time.
* West Ham v West Brom and Newcastle v Blackburn could both be over 2.5 goals, although West Brom have yet to score in the first half away from home.

Championship:
Oppose Bristol City at Swansea, although there's a 64% chance of the game being a draw at half time. I'm leaving that one alone for personal reasons though.

Let's see what happens. I've already started working on some games in Europe over the weekend and I'll be posting my selections on Friday morning.